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Leading Off:

CO-Sen, -04: This would be huge if true, and it seems like it almost certainly is. According to unnamed sources who spoke with the Denver Post, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner is set to make a late—and very unexpected—entry into the race for Senate. Gardner was a top choice for GOP recruiters last year, but he declined a bid against Democratic Sen. Mark Udall since he seemed fast-tracked to move up the leadership ranks in the House. That left Republicans with a pretty weak field that features deeply flawed 2010 nominee Ken Buck at the front of the pack.

But a Gardner candidacy would seriously shake up the race. If he gets in, a huge question would be whether other, more tea-flavored candidates stay in the primary, or whether the field clears. So far, the outlook on that front is unclear. Buck immediately declared that he'd drop down to run for Gardner's safely Republican House seat (while denying the fix was in), and the Weekly Standard claims that state Sen. Amy Stephens will also bail on the Senate race.

However, state Sen. Owen Hill sounds like he's staying put: He said that Gardner "tried to push me out of the race" and denounced the Gardner-Buck switcheroo as "corruption." Meanwhile, a third state senator also running for Senate, Randy Baumgardner, declared that he's not going anywhere either. Whether Hill or Baumgardner can emerge as a viable anti-Gardner option, though, remains to be seen.

And if Gardner can vanquish these foes to earn his party's nomination, Udall will have a very serious race on his hands. Indeed, someone as cautious as Gardner wouldn't make this leap without some very positive polling. A PPP poll from last April had Udall up 10, but that was a long time ago in Colorado politics, and Democratic fortunes have since headed south.

Assuming we wind up with a Gardner vs. Udall race, that would mean, at the very least, a titanic matchup in the Rockies. It would also further stretch Democrats by forcing them to divert resources from other contests, which is exactly what the party doesn't need right now. But it's still no sure thing that Gardner would win the Republican primary, given how often we've seen establishment GOPers crash and burn. And that's certainly what Democrats would have to hope for here.

Senate:

KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is unloading on his tea party primary challenge, physician Milton Wolf, with a new ad that excoriates Wolf for ghoulishly violating patient privacy by posting x-rays of the dead on Facebook along with grotesque commentary. A gravelly-voiced announcer sums up the bizarre story and cites a medical ethicist mentioned in the original Topeka Capital-Journal report who called Wolf's behavior "beyond alarming." Concludes the narrator: "If Milton Wolf is so irresponsible as a doctor, how can he possibly be trusted as a U.S. senator?" The size of the buy is reportedly around $105,000.

KY-Sen: The Big Dog brought in some big bucks for Alison Grimes. According to the Grimes campaign, donors gave the Democratic Senate hopeful $700,000 thanks to Bill Clinton's fundraiser on Tuesday in Louisville.

MI-Sen, Gov: Democratic pollster Clarity Campaign Labs is out with some surprisingly bullish numbers for Michigan Democrats. (The poll was conducted in-house and not on behalf of any campaign or organization.) In the Senate race, Clarity finds Democratic Rep. Gary Peters beating former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land 46-40, while ex-Rep. Mark Schauer leads Republican Gov. Rick Snyder 47-40 in the gubernatorial contest.

Most recent public polling, on the other hand, has put Land up a few points, while Snyder has often led by mid-to-high single digits. Then again, as we've often noted, Michigan is home to a lot of crummy pollsters. And Clarity's methodology is pretty different from most. The firm explains that it "match[ed] individual voter file records to survey respondents to validate and weight the sample using the voter file-based Likely Voter 2014 model." Other outfits probably aren't using models like Clarity's.

PA-Sen: That Harper poll of Pennsylvania also included a hypothetical 2016 Democratic primary matchup between ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, who's already announced he wants a rematch against GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, and state Attorney General Kathleen Kane, who could also seek the Senate seat. Kane leads 47-24, likely due at least in part to name recognition: She won a resounding victory in 2012 and has regularly made headlines since, while Sestak hasn't been on the ballot since his 2010 loss.

SC-Sen-A: Yet another poll shows GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham a bit shy of the 50 percent mark he needs to hit in order to avoid a runoff this summer. According to Winthrop University, Graham takes 45 percent while state Sen. Lee Bright is far behind with 9. Every other candidate is under 4, and 35 percent of Republican primary voters are undecided.

Gubernatorial:

 PA-Gov: There are two new polls of the Pennsylvania governor's race, one of the Democratic primary, and one of the general election. In the former, Franklin and Marshall sees what GOP outfit Harper Polling found earlier in the week: a surge for wealthy businessman Tom Wolf, who leads with 36 percent. The rest of the field is in single digits.

But there's also an indicator that Wolf's lead might be somewhat illusory, since he's only at 11 percent among those who have not seen one of many his ads (a smallish group, to be fair, given that a majority of voters have in fact seen one). So the question for Wolf is whether he'll be able to continue to hold a healthy lead when the rest of the field takes to the airwaves.

As for the latter, Quinnipiac polls the November elections and finds what everyone finds: Republican incumbent Gov. Tom Corbett losing. The margins vary pretty widely, but Corbett trails all comers:

32-51 vs. Tom Wolf

36-43 vs. Rob McCord

37-44 vs. Jack Wagner

38-44 vs. Allyson Schwartz

37-40 vs. John Hanger

38-40 vs. Katie McGinty

Unsurprisingly, Wolf's lead is by far the largest, thanks again to his extensive advertising. Corbett's job approval continues to circle the drain (36-52), with voters saying, by an outsized 55-34 margin, that the first-term Republican does not deserve re-election. (Steve Singiser)

House:

CA-17: "Set your phasers to 'fun'!" is my obligatory Star Trek joke in honor of the fact that George Takei will be headlining a March fundraiser in San Francisco on behalf of Rep. Mike Honda. Organizers are obviously looking for big bucks ($2,600 rates you the "Oh Myyy!" level), but Sulu fans can attend for as little as $50.

HI-01: Merriman River also has numbers on the Democratic primary in Hawaii's 1st District, where they find state Senate President Donna Mercado Kim leading state Rep. Mark Takai 25-20, with everyone else in single digits. (The poll is a couple of weeks old, so it did not include Honolulu City Councilman Joey Manahan, who announced on Feb. 15.) A recent survey from Ward Research had Kim ahead of Takai by a twice-as-wide 31-21 spread.

IA-02: As expected, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who recently stepped down as head of the state Department of Public Health, has decided to run against Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack a third time. Miller-Meeks got crushed by 18 points in 2008, then managed a narrower 5-point loss the following cycle. But if she couldn't get it done in 2010, it's hard to see how she'll prevail now.

MI-12: Here's an interesting (and unexpected) statistic: If Debbie Dingell runs for and wins retiring Democratic Rep. John Dingell's House seat, it'll be the first time in congressional history that a wife has succeeded a living husband. (The reverse has never happened either.) Widows have often followed their late husbands into office—indeed, almost one in six of the women who have ever served in the House or Senate arrived in such a manner, but it's less common nowadays.

Debbie Dingell isn't the first to try, though: Kansas Democrat Stephene Moore attempted to succeed her husband, Rep. Dennis Moore, but got swamped in the 2010 GOP wave. The University of Minnesota has more statistics on spousal succession.

NY-21: Former state Sen. Darrel Aubertine announced on Wednesday that he would not run for New York's open 21st Congressional District. With Assemblywoman Addie Russell previously saying she wouldn't run, either, that leaves filmmaker Aaron Woolf as the last Democrat standing. On the GOP side, businesswoman Elise Stefanik and investment banker Matt Doheny, the 2010 and 2012 nominee, are duking it out.

PA-06: The D.C. Democratic establishment may be rallying around businessman Mike Parrish but local Dems continue to give their support to physician (and two-time nominee) Manan Trivedi. The Montgomery County Democratic Party just endorsed Trivedi, following the same move by their counterparts in Chester County. The third sizable county in the district, Berks, is also where Trivedi is from, so he's likely to scoop them up as well. (A part of Lebanon County is also in the 6th, but it's tiny.)

Other Races:

DC Mayor: A new Democratic primary poll from Marist on behalf of several local news organizations offers mixed news for Washington, D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray. On one hand, Gray leads with 28 percent in the April 1 primary, with his nearest opponent, Councilmember Muriel Bowser, at 20. A majority of respondents also approve of Gray's job performance. The bad news for Hizzoner is that voters are still suspicious of him: With an investigation of his 2010 campaign ongoing, 70 percent of voters say Gray was at least involved in unethical activities.

With most Democratic voters ready to vote the incumbent out, a Gray victory has always depended on his many challengers splitting the vote and allowing him to coast to victory on a plurality. That still appears to be the case at the moment, but Bowser seems to be breaking away from the field. She leads fellow Councilmembers Jack Evans and Tommy Wells by 7 and 8 points respectively, and more than 20 percent of voters rank her as their second choice (for Gray, it's 12 percent).

Bowser also scooped up some potentially useful endorsements from EMILY's List and the Washington Post. If Bowser establishes herself as Gray's main opponent, she could pick up enough of the other candidates' supporters and cost Gray renomination. (Jeff Singer)

NY State Senate: Jesus. Another Democratic state senator, Tony Avella of Queens, has defected to the so-called Independent Democratic Conference, joining the quartet of renegade Dems who've sold their souls to the minority GOP in exchange for a share of power in the ruling "majority coalition." It's not entirely clear why Avella in particular decided to abandon his party, but he's known for not getting along with fellow members, and now he'll be able to advance his personal agenda (whatever that may be) more easily.

Of course, the IDC has managed to block a much broader progressive agenda, and their leader, Jeff Klein, may suffer for it in this year's primary. But Avella's move definitely makes things harder for mainstream Democrats to take back the chamber. The math is complicated and subject to change, but as of now, Democrats would need a net of five pickups this November, if no members of the IDC were to rejoin the fold. Given their power-chasing ways, though, some IDCers could change their allegiances yet again.

Special Elections: There was a party flip in one of Tuesday night's special elections, and it wasn't good news for the Democrats. Johnny Longtorso:

Connecticut SD-10: This was an easy hold; Democrat Gary Holder-Winfield defeated Republican Steven Mullins by a 76-24 landslide.

Virginia HD-100: This, however, was a Republican pickup. Republican Rob Bloxom Jr. defeated Democrat Willie Randall by a 60-40 margin. Unfortunately for Virginia Democrats, this means that their net gain of one seat in the House last year just got wiped out.

Especially distressing is the fact that Obama carried HD-100 by a 10-point margin, so this seat went a monster 30 points in the opposite direction. Yikes.

Grab Bag:

Maryland: Filing closed Tuesday for the Old Line State's June 24 primary. A complete list of candidates is available from the state here.

In the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Martin O'Malley, three credible Democrats are running. Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who looks like the early frontrunner, will face Attorney General Doug Gansler and Del. Heather Mizeur; three other minor Democrats are also running. The winner will likely make history: Brown would be the state's first African American governor, while Mizeur would be the first openly gay governor elected anywhere. (Though in Maine, likely Democratic nominee Mike Michaud would tie Mizeur for that title if they both win.)

Five Republicans make up the field here: Hartford County Executive David Craig, Del. Ron George, former state cabinet official Larry Hogan, businessman and 2010 MD-05 nominee Charles Lollar, and 2012 senatorial also-ran Brian Vaeth. What little polling there is indicates none of the candidates are well known to primary voters yet. Daily Kos Elections rates the race as Likely Democratic.

Two other statewide races are on the ballot. Incumbent Democratic Comptroller Peter Franchot has no primary opposition and will face a rematch with Republican William Campbell in November. In 2010 Franchot defeated Campbell 61-39. Three Democrats are running for the attorney general's post left open by Gansler: Dels. Aisha Braveboy and Jon Cardin (who is also the nephew of Sen. Ben Cardin), and state Sen. Brian Frosh. The winner will face Republican attorney Jeffrey Pritzker, who narrowly lost the GOP primary for this office back in 2002.

All eight of Maryland's House members (seven Democrats and one Republican) are running, and they only face token primary challenges. All eight are also rated as Safe in the general election. (Jeff Singer)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Kansas - Milton Wolf (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40

    I hope folks got to watch Wolf's interview with the reporter where the reporter showed him the photographs from online. It was beyond creepy and Wolf was really squirming the whole time.

    KOS: "Mocking partisans focusing on elections? Even less reason to be on Daily Kos."

    by fcvaguy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:05:10 AM PST

  •  M Udall role important on Sen.Intell.Comm. where (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sharon Wraight, Cadillac64, unfangus

    in this year when Snowden's evidence is showing that the committee needs to be strengthened,

    1. Udall loss would be a huge step back in accountability, and

    2. Dems need to be seeking political advantage,

    as discussed more in this diary: http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  I Think It Is Going To Be A Tea Party Primary (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    whoknu, Pinto Pony, Matt Z, RustyCannon

    Each candidate is going to out tea bag the other candidates in Colorado.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:34:53 AM PST

    •  yeah, (5+ / 0-)

      hard feelings all around. They are on a purity kick.

      Guns
      ACA
      51st state initiative...

      Yeah, the popcorn is popping.

      One thing Udall could use in his favor, he has been pretty outspoken about NSA so he could use that to circumvent the tea by appealing to the libertarian streak here.

      Loyalty to petrified opinion never yet broke a chain or freed a human soul in this world--and never will. Mark Twain

      by whoknu on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:05:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  NRA: Udall "F", Gardner "A+". Ugly race, ahead. nt (0+ / 0-)
        •  Or, an opportunity to show how crazy the NRA (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z, Cadillac64, TofG

          is ... I am not so sure the gun lobby wants to be front and center on the national stage. Sure, they will put money in the race, but their M.O. is to be active in the more obscure races (or where they have a clear home field advantage) where they can intimidate and act crazy out of the sight of the national media.

          A state-wide election is much different than the cherry-picked district-by-district approach the gun lobby usually has success with. The gun lobby can only pull so many votes out of certain districts.

          And the gun reforms that the state Dems passed last year are popular - background checks polls in the 80s, magazine restrictions polls at 50% (48 against). I am not sure if keeping guns out of the hands of domestic abusers was part of the federal legislation, it was at the state level. That's one Gardner doesn't want to touch.

          It will be a tough race, but guns are going to be just one of many issues that GOPers are upset about: marriage equality, abortion, marijuana legalization, alternative energy standards, and yes guns. They feel their whole way of life is being challenged.

          "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

          by We Shall Overcome on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:39:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Good to know, tks (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            i saw an old tree today

            Don't waste time on it, but if you happen to have a link for the Colorado poll on background checks getting 80% support, that'd be especially helpful.

            (Keeping guns out of domestic abusers' hands is also a good wedge issue, glad to know it also polls well.)

            •  Here you go ... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              i saw an old tree today

              ... and background checks actually polled at 85%, but high cap mag was 49%, not 50% - basically even 49-48 and it's been that way for the past 6 months or so. Of course, when asked if they support "gun control" those polled said no by large margins - it's only when you get into the detail, that they realize that in fact, they do support gun control. I have to imagine many equate gun control with gun confiscation.

              http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

              Related to the mag ban is Magpul, a Colorado company that is leaving, it says because of that vote. But the company had been in talks with other states about incentives to relocate before the Aurora shooting:

              http://kdvr.com/...

              "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

              by We Shall Overcome on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:12:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thanks! "Gun safety" better than "gun control," (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                i saw an old tree today

                in polls, I'm told -- sounds plausible, though I haven't yet seen proof.

                Other factoids from that November 19, 2013 Quinnipiac poll:
                * 68 percent say gun policy is extremely or very important;
                * Voters statewide opposed 49-38 % the recall of State Sen. Evie Hudak for supporting stricter new gun control laws. (That's good news for a statewide senate race.)

                The breakdown on this question was interesting:

                42. Do you support or oppose the stricter new gun control laws in Colorado?
                                                                                                        GUN HSHOLD
                                      Tot      Rep    Dem    Ind    Men     Wom      Yes      No
                Support         40%    14%    76%    33%    33%    48%    27%    62%
                Oppose          55       83       20       61        65       45        70       32
                DK/NA              4         3         4         5         2         6           3         7
                •  gun control shows you are at least honest (0+ / 0-)

                  gun safety signals you don't know about either. Either one might well end up being the deciding factor that loses the CO race for us.

                  Thanks tons.

                  “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

                  by ban nock on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:28:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  What is the appeal of Gardner? (5+ / 0-)

        If Gardner is a whackjob smokin' the tea like Ken Buck, then what makes Gardner a more electable Republican than Buck?

        Please help to fight hunger in the U.S. by making a donation to Feeding America.

        by MJB on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:15:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think he nailed it in the article: $$$ (0+ / 0-)
          It would also further stretch Democrats by forcing them to divert resources from other contests, which is exactly what the party doesn't need right now.
          It was unbelievably stupid to have national groups stand up and say, "We're sitting this one out. We're good. We care more about our money than people hurting."

          The RNC is Atwatering this as they do so well.  They are the little brother that follows you around humming "Teenage Dream" after you tell them you hate Katy Perry.

          "Then why don't all girls belong to unions?" "Well, there's some that thinks it ain't fashionable; there's some that thinks it ain't no use; and there's some that never thinks at all."

          by Cadillac64 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:09:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  forgot reply: Gardner is prettier. (0+ / 0-)

          Seriously.  Just wait for the "Paul Ryan'esque movie star good looks" articles.  Straight from RNC casting that gets all  the white boys feeling 'funny' in their tummies.

          "Then why don't all girls belong to unions?" "Well, there's some that thinks it ain't fashionable; there's some that thinks it ain't no use; and there's some that never thinks at all."

          by Cadillac64 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:13:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Further-- (0+ / 0-)

          Why would a giant like Udall be considered a more likely upset than the far weaker Bennet, who was facing statewide voters for the first time in the 2010 wave and survived.

          Gardner not only supported fetal 'personhood' and took a vocal role in the government shutdown (heck, that's probably not enough to be outside the mainstream GOP these days), but he even supported the crackpot effort of those northern counties in his district to secede from Colorado!

          That's a special kind of crazy, even for a Republican.  Why should anyone expect him to be well-received outside Colorado Springs and his own 59% Romney extremist district?  

          No matter how much they spend trying to trash Udall, I don't see this getting any worse than Likely Dem.  Alternatively, if it does, it would be a sign that, for some reason, America is heading for a Republican wave, and that the country is just too in love with shutdowns, joblessness, misogyny, antigay rage and hatred of non-billionaires to be worth saving.

          "It was all a mistake! I'm dieting and I told my staff to close the FRIDGE!" --attributed to Governor Christie

          by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:55:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  He (Gardner) should run on his record (0+ / 0-)

          A do nothing back-bencher of the 2 least productive congresses in history.A reliable tea party obstructionist whose votes prevented a real economic recovery,widened income inequality,and favored big oil subsidies at the expense of kick starting a robust green energy boom.One thing about Gardner,he's actually the best of the Colorado GOP reps.hard to believe but the others are even worse.

          'The tyranny of the ignoramuses is absolute and inescapable' A.Einstein

  •  Re D.C. mayor, (0+ / 0-)

    i listened to part of the debate on NPR, and I wound up liking Tommy Wells the best, but if Bowser has the best chance of taking down Gray, I'll gladly support her.  A Gray-Catania race, I'd be tempted to sit it out.

    Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

    by Loge on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:15:08 AM PST

  •  At least it will be competitive race. (5+ / 0-)

    Here in Michigan,  progressives and rank and file dDems are saddled with a dysfunctional, moribund, and lame Democratic party establishment.

    Every other GOP Governor elected in the 2010 wave is either in deep trouble, or is facing a stiff reelection fight. Not Rick Snyder.

    And, Michigan is a solid Blue Presidential state, which makes this even more depressing. If Democrats got up off their asses and voted in this State, they'd win.

    •  I wouldn't get fatalistic just yet... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, Matt Z, Cadillac64

      A recent poll had Snyder losing by a lot.  It's hard to tell up there, since the pollsters are such crap.  But, it does seem that labor is doing nothing but sit on its ass, even though they should have been really motivated with RTW. I feel for you.  I don't know how the upper midwest happens to go blue presidentially, since the democratic party in MI, WI, OH and PA just absolutely sucks rocks.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:24:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  doesn't the above poll show the opposite? (0+ / 0-)

      According to the poll cited above, Schauer is leading Snyder by six percentage points.

  •  Brace yourself (0+ / 0-)

    2014 is going to be very, very, very bad.

  •  Gardner is a "personhood/secession" candidate. (12+ / 0-)

    I dunno. I just don't see a Gardner candidacy as being as huge a threat to Udall as David Nir does. Gardner is perhaps a slightly more polished version of Ken Buck, but no less loopy or provincially focused. This is still Udall's race to lose.

    Gardner isn't going to be able to get away with the usual BS that he has been in all his congressional campaigns. He's going to find out the hard way what Ken Buck has learned.

    •  If Udall loses to Gardner then he doesn't belong (11+ / 0-)

      in the Senate.

      Instead of being weeping willows about it, Dems. should also consider the advantage of taking out Gardner before he amasses a lot of seniority in the House.  Buck winning Gardner's seat is a drag but Buck won't become a long term player simply because of his age.  Trading Buck for Gardner and then beating Gardner is a satisfactory outcome for Colorado Dems.  Buck in the House race could also prompt a Dem. candidate who wouldn't have come forward if Gardner was still running.  Time to get aggressive and go beat these fools.  Colorado voters aren't as lunatic as some folks think.  Colorado Connect for Health is at 120% of projections and the new marijuana legalization laws have rolled out without a lot of problems.  Gardner doesn't offer anything of pragmatic substance to Colorado voters.

      •  I tend to agree - Gardner is young, and maybe (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gzodik, Cadillac64, Lencialoo

        a little more polished, but he's the same on the issues as any other GOPer in Colorado.

        He can probably raise more money and Buck has well known baggage and was already rejected by voters.

        I'm wondering if Gardner's decision was more of a "team" decision versus an individual deciding he has a great shot to beat Udall. Karl Rove was in Denver sometime in the past week and I'm wondering if making the Udall match more competitive fits into a larger national GOP strategy - ie, force the Dems to put more money in Colorado and weaken their efforts elsewhere. If true, then Gardner's decision may have less to do with his belief that he has a great chance to pick up the seat and more to do with being a team player with maybe a promise of things to come if he doesn't win.

        "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

        by We Shall Overcome on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:47:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gardner probably has best chance against Udall but (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, We Shall Overcome, Cadillac64

          He is still going to have a good fight to get anywhere. Colorado voters in this senate district are NOT the same as in Gardners House district.  Great article covering Gardner from the Colorado Independent this morning:

          http://www.coloradoindependent.com/...

          Confucius say: "Man who want pretty nurse, must be patient."

          by Lencialoo on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:19:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I haven't seen much about how Obama's (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Lencialoo, Cadillac64

            defense cuts might play in Colorado - I'm wondering if that might be an issue that is under the radar right now. Colorado is a big defense state, and that could seem to hurt Udall. Then again, the Colorado economy is humming, so defense cuts could get lost in a larger "Colorado's sunny economy" message.

            "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

            by We Shall Overcome on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:29:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Defense cuts may be hurting but... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              We Shall Overcome

              from what I have read most of the cuts were in the Colorado Springs area which as you know is a "hot bed" of religious right wing TP or GOP...  I doubt that Udall got many votes from that area except of course from me when I lived there. The politics there were pretty skewed...still are. :-p

              Confucius say: "Man who want pretty nurse, must be patient."

              by Lencialoo on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:38:36 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Any opinion on what is going in with Gardner? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Lencialoo

                Most of what's been printed so far nationally/major outlets is that Gardner will give Udall a tough challenge, and that this is a sign that Dems are in trouble, not just in Colorado but also nationally, where that's been conventional wisdom for some time. Gardner seems to be fitting into that narrative, but maybe in a superficial way.

                To me, there could be a whiff of desperation to his decision. There are rumors that Tancredo is going to drop out of the race for gov and that with a rather weak gov field, and weak Senate field, there was going to be no popular, well known figure at the top of the ticket and that would suppress turnout up and down the ticket:

                http://coloradopols.com/...

                 ... and then Gardner shows up.

                The Colorado GOP also is making a bid for the 2016 GOP convention - might there be a lot of incentive to produce some results in 2014 to bolster that case? And if the Colorado state GOP was headed for another lackluster performance, wouldn't it stand to reason that Gardner's jumping into the Udall race could be as much about panic as it is a sign of the GOP seeing blood in the water?

                Beyond the state GOP's concerns, nationally, could the GOP also be panicked? If they saw Colorado going down the tubes, and if they are considering Colorado as a convention site because they view Colorado as critical to their longer-term strategy, did they ask Gardner to get in the race?

                Karl Rove apparently was in town over the past week in meetings in Denver: http://coloradopols.com/...

                Hmmmm

                "Looking back over a lifetime, you see that love was the answer to everything." — Ray Bradbury

                by We Shall Overcome on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:27:11 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  What the national's are missing RE: defense cuts. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              We Shall Overcome

              The anger is not in the cuts to the defense industry & upper level soldiers.  Cut them, defund them, PLEASE.

              The anger is from the fact that there is no spending on treating our field level soldiers to a quality of life equal to the risk they take.  Cut the brass & shiny billion dollar toys they play with and spend it on base schools and such. Pay the soldiers a living wage so they don't have to be on food stamps.

              BUILD MORE HOSPITALS. We created all these soldiers and hurt their bodies & minds and dumped them out on the streets without jobs or support.  Follow the Colorado Springs Gazette crime log for a time to see what that does to a community.

              Folks I know around here are: more soldier support, less concern & coddling for the political donors to their campaigns.

              "Then why don't all girls belong to unions?" "Well, there's some that thinks it ain't fashionable; there's some that thinks it ain't no use; and there's some that never thinks at all."

              by Cadillac64 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:03:49 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Oh noes! We're doomed, I tell ya! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, gzodik, TofG

    Doooomed!!!

  •  Gardner and Buck represent the pre electricity (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cocinero, Cadillac64, RustyCannon

    View of CO Politics. The state is becoming increasingly more progressive and Udall represents those views.The "citizens United"crowd will try to use their magic dollars to buy the election,,,they may be enough but only if the electorate is dumb enough to vote against their own interests.

  •  Gardner (5+ / 0-)
    Indeed, someone as cautious as Gardner wouldn't make this leap without some very positive polling.
    Also, very positive indications of financial support from sources with deep pockets (e.g. Koch bros.).
  •  Gardner is in (5+ / 0-)

    It's a caucus process and he'll cruise to victory. What Udall needs to do is shatter the undeserved perception that Gardner is a moderate. He's not. When asked if he knew Obama was born in the U.S., he said "I don't know. I know what everyone else knows" (there's a Youtube clip of it). He's a "personhood" amendment supporter and supported Paul's "forced rape" legislation when it included the Akin-like language. So, he needs to be shows as the extremist he actually is - his efforts to look moderate during the shut-down were his attempt to reduce his extremist credentials.

    This will now be a priority for the party nationally. Unfortunately, Gardner's candidacy will peel off lots of moderate Reps. that usually support Udall on Western issues.

  •  regarding Gardner... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RustyCannon

    ...can someone explain to the rest of us, such as myself, who are not closely attuned to Colorado politics, why Gardner is considered to be such a "savior" for Republicans?

    Granted, he's a Congressman, so has a base.

    But if that poll last April showed Gardner trailing Udall by 10 percent, exactly what is it about Gardner that shakes this race up so much?

    (It would be great when these stories are written, if people could keep in mind that now everyone knows everything about every race in the country...so...skipping over important information, such as why Gardner is considered to be such a major addition to the race for Republicans...would be helpful information to impart.)

    •  Why (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RustyCannon, wdrath

      Because Gardner is a much better politician that the normal GOPer - he hides his extremism much better, has a decent demeanor (publicly at least), and is good at the game. Ken Buck and the other idiots that are or were running for the seat are worse than Todd Aiken - they can't help making a fool of themselves all of the time.

      •  Oh, we have plenty of video of (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wdrath

        Gardner saying and doing stupid things. Not to mention plenty of on-the-record positions that he's taken that are way out of the mainstream.

        Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. - Abe Lincoln

        by RustyCannon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:50:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm in his district and it is a mystery (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wdrath

      to me why he is considered a "leader" on the "fast track" in the Republican Party. I can tell you that he is an oil and gas shill, his wife heads an oil and gas lobbying group, and he has a long, well-documented history of saying crazy things and voting with the worst of the teabags in congress.

      He doesn't represent the interests of the right-center district that he's in.

      Vic Meyers, a Democrat trying to get the attention of state Democrats is a far better fit than any of the Republicans that will be trying to take over in CD-04.

      It's a huge district, bordered by WY, NE, KS, OK, NM, roughly I-25 to the west (although the western border is where the gerrymandering has made for a very strange border line).

      Vic has been working his ass off for months, driving the district and talking to voters. He understands the rural, working class of the district, because he IS one.

      But Vic's trouble is that the Dems have pretty much just preemptively conceded the election! To me, it's mind boggling. Just look at Vic's positions: Vic's Website

      Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. - Abe Lincoln

      by RustyCannon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:47:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  maybe they'll take a second look... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RustyCannon

        ...now that Gardner's dropping his bid for reelection?

        If Meyers is a great fit for the district, he should be able to competitive with someone like Buck?

        •  I believe he can. (0+ / 0-)

          He's a working man, veteran, with a math degree. But he also has a small ranch. He is very typical rural eastern Colorado. Buck, on the other hand is just another machine politician.

          Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. - Abe Lincoln

          by RustyCannon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:53:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  CO Senate: The DNC needs to get over ... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, RustyCannon, maxentropy

    ... this plot point that having to actually campaign in elections is a waste of their time & money.  It's seems to be their loudest media push lately.

    Gardner ain't no thing in my opinion. He could be easily beaten if the Colorado Democrats, you know, our Governor & majority legislation actually stood up and started working for Democrat ideals. Since they seemingly agree with the Republicans on only legislating for industry and selling off all the private resources (roads & schools) I know it won't happen.

    I bet a lot of Colorado political & media folks called their brokers this morning and bought that shiny little thingy they had their eye on the last few months. With the RNC looking to party in LoDo this summer, it's vacation houses for all!

    Go Udall. Prove you're better then the other guy.  I have every confidence you will.

    "Then why don't all girls belong to unions?" "Well, there's some that thinks it ain't fashionable; there's some that thinks it ain't no use; and there's some that never thinks at all."

    by Cadillac64 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:59:45 AM PST

  •  I just got an email from Udall's campaign (0+ / 0-)

    confirming the switcheroo.

    One thing Cory Gardner brings is shit load of oil money. He is very quiet on most social issues however. Statewide we've had guns and gays on the agenda and very little out of Corey. It'a hard to tell how it will go. I guess Buck was such a loose cannon that many were hoping for some royal snafus that Corey is less apt to pull.

    “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

    by ban nock on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 07:25:51 PM PST

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