Same shit, different cycle
I'm going to make two claims that go against what is commonly considered the conventional wisdom about the 2016 Presidential Race, as far as who the two major party candidates will be.
1. We already know who the Republican candidate will be.
2. We do not yet know who the Democratic candidate will be.
For the average political junkie, these two claims not only seem counter-factual taken separately, but that they also seem like they should be attributed to their counterparts.
And though the similarity in the nature of these claims implies similarities in how these claims are derived, I make these claims for two very different rationales, unique to each of the parties' specific circumstances.
Still, I think if more people came to terms with this reality, the focus that has been going to this issue could be better utilized to provide the best gameplan possible for victory in 2016.
First, the Republican Party.
As far as the individual candidates vying for the Republican candidacy are concerned, the pole position is still up for grabs, between several different possibilities.
However, as we have seen from past recent elections, we already clearly know who will come out of the primaries on top.
Whoever gets tapped as the Republican candidate will be a prototypical Conservative.
They will be anti-gay rights, anti-womens' rights, anti-immigration, anti-gun control, anti-worker, anti-social insurance program, anti-business regulation, anti-affordable healthcare.
They will have to go to the right, the far, far right, on almost every major issue, just to make it out of the Republican primaries. So when it finally gets time for the General election, they will have far more ground to make up than the Democratic candidate in terms of returning to somewhere even remotely resembling the rest of the electorate.
In their echo chamber world, the Conservatives may have convinced themselves that they do not have to take any drastic deviations in their policy, only tweak their image and branding and fill up some more binders. But the fact is, all the way through to their establishment, the Republican Party has gone too far to the right from the rest of the electorate, and unless they address this major faultline, whoever they end up tapping for the candidacy will be seriously flawed from the get-go.
They may not be the most extreme, Tea Partier fundie in the entire field, but whoever comes out on top will certainly be a Conservative candidate through and through. Look at 2012 for example. In a field that included Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann, Mitt Romney may have seemed like the most electable, most moderate of the bunch, but he was certainly no moderate by any means, other than in comparison to who he beat. I mean, correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't think of a single policy position Romney took for the General that could be considered anything but Conservative.
So while the jury is still out on who that individual might be, we already know what types of positions he or she (just kidding, he) will be taking, which should inform political strategy once the General rolls around. Because no matter what, this does not mean that Democratic victory is assured.
Rather than focusing on who that may ultimately be, we should focus on what they will ultimately become. And that, we already know.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party faces quite the opposite problem, though from my view it presents a far more difficult problem to address.
Of course, the presumptive candidate is already Hillary Clinton, even though technically she hasn't announced yet, because of course she wouldn't, it doesn't make any sort of political sense. Regardless, she is already the frontrunner.
The question then is, what kind of candidate will Hillary Clinton be? Will she be a Democrat who leans on corporate backing, the kind that gets us Grand Bargains and Sequestrations and chained CPI?
Or will she be a Democrat who represents all the ideals that draw people to the Democratic Party in the first place.
Equal rights in the workplace, military, and classroom. Raising the minimum wage and improving worker protections. Increased support for labor and the working class. Support for accessible, affordable public education. Rolling back military and government spying. Strengthening social insurance programs such as unemployment insurance, food stamps, and social security.
How many Progressive values will we get her to embrace, above and beyond what might theoretically be needed just to win?
Because if we are not electing a Democrat to represent Democrats, but a Democrat just to win the Presidential election, what good are we even doing?
That's the question Democrats face and will need to push hard on before November 2016. Will we have a candidate who truly represents the Democratic Party's values? Or just enough of a façade to achieve victory. A Democrat who raises the bar for Progressive and Liberal values, or a Democrat in name only.
In the end, this is why I think Democrats face a far more insidious problem than the Republican Party. Because if the GOP faces up to this major flaw in their approach, they could certainly get a more electable candidate through their primaries if they really felt compelled to. I don't think anybody reasonably thinks Mitt Romney was seriously in jeopardy of losing the trust the GOP establishment placed in him to be their guy. But he also came out far more Conservative than he should have been, and it backfired in November. In the end, the Republican Party got the candidate they wanted.
On the other hand, it's far harder to convince the Democratic base, once they have the candidate they want, that they should strive to push that person further to the Left. Unlike for the Republican Party, the Primaries likely do not provide as much incentive in that regard. It takes a concerted effort, constant pressure, and unwavering vigilance.
Of course, if anybody is up to that challenge, it is the people who make up the Democratic Party's base. So, while this problem certainly poses some issues, I think it could also offers one of the best opportunities possible.
Not just to elect another Democratic President, but to elect one that truly stands for Democratic principles, the likes of which we haven't seen in decades.
When it comes to 2016, we already know what kind of Conservative candidate we will have. The true question is, what kind of Liberal candidate will we have?