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8:10 AM PT: TX-33: On Friday, with just days to go before Texas' primaries, President Obama endorsed freshman Rep. Marc Veasey in his first bid for re-election. Veasey is favored in the Democratic primary, but he faces self-funding attorney Tom Sanchez, who has poured almost a million bucks of his own money into the race. The fact that Veasey's team requested a last-minute endorsement from the big guy is probably just a final measure of insurance, though it's possible they're a little bit nervous.

8:47 AM PT (Darth Jeff): Mississippi: Filing closed Saturday for the Magnolia state's June 3 primary. In races where no one wins more that 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held June 24 between the top two candidates. The Mississippi Press provides a good list of who is running.

Longtime Republican Sen. Thad Cochran looks like he has a tough primary battle against tea partying state Sen. Chris McDaniel. A third candidate, Some Dude Thomas Carey, is also in the race. Carey won't win, but if things are close he could force a runoff by preventing either Cochran or McDaniel from winning 50 percent. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Travis Childers faces little primary opposition. If Cochran wins renomination for one more term then it's very difficult to see him losing in November; McDaniel could make a general election more interesting, but would still start out as the favorite in this very conservative state. Daily Kos Elections currently rates the general election as a Race to Watch, but we will reevaluate our rating after the Republican primary.

All four of Mississippi's House members (three Republicans and a Democrat) are running for reelection, and each seat is rated as safe for the party that currently holds it.

One Rep. may have to watch his back in the primary. Sophomore Republican Steve Palazzo of MS-04 faces an unusual rematch with former Rep. Gene Taylor, who represented this district for over twenty years as a Democrat. The very conservative Taylor was very popular in this Gulf Coast district but even he couldn't survive the 2010 red wave, losing to Palazzo 52-47. Taylor has since switched parties and is hoping to use the Republican primary to avenge his defeat. Three other minor candidates are running in the primary, so a close race could be thrown into a runoff. One thing the GOP won't need to worry about is holding this seat in November: Romney won this district 68-31, and Taylor was probably the only Democrat who could win it.

8:49 AM PT: DCCC: The DCCC has launched the first round of its Red to Blue program for the 2014 election cycle, highlighting 35 different House contests for special attention. The D-Trip has two broad categories: "Red to Blue" itself, which represents the most competitive races; and "Emerging Races," which is more of a watch list. And some races involve endorsements of specific candidates while in others, the committee isn't choosing sides (yet).

But the listings can be further broken down into a few different buckets. Most of the R2B districts don't involve contested primaries, but a few do: CA-21, where the DCCC is supporting Amanda Renteria over John Hernandez; IL-13, Ann Callis over George Gollin; and NM-02, Rocky Lara over Leslie Endean-Singh. Interestingly, it looks like the D-Trip has backed off its early endorsement of Pete Aguilar in CA-31, since it now includes that district without picking a specific candidate. (Eloise Reyes and Joe Baca are also running there.)

A few candidates on the Emerging Races list have also been hit with similar downgrades. In PA-08, the committee is no longer singling out Kevin Strouse over Shaughnessy Norton, even though Strouse, like Aguilar, had made the DCCC's earlier Jumpstart program. Similarly, in PA-06, Mike Parrish doesn't get any special attention over Manan Trivedi, despite earlier statements of support for Parrish from the DCCC. (Parrish never made Jumpstart, though.) And in MI-11, Bobby McKenzie, another Jumpstarter, fell off the radar for some reason, even though no other notable Democrats appear to be in the race. Perhaps the D-Trip is still holding out hope someone stronger gets in?

And while the division of contests between the R2B and Emerging lists largely tracks with what you'd expect, there are a couple of races that are a bit surprising to see slotted into the second-tier. One is NY-19, where wealthy investor Sean Eldridge has both been raising money at a good clip and self-funding a bunch. The other is NY-21, the open seat in New York's North Country where local Dems have rallied around unknown filmmaker Aaron Woolf. Woolf's low ranking makes it seem that the DCCC is not optimistic about holding this district. (And oddly, NC-02 is on the list, but Clay Aiken didn't earn an endorsement.)

As for outright omissions, Daily Kos Elections has four GOP-held seats listed as Likely Republican that didn't make the cut at all. They are: IN-02 (Democrat Joe Bock challenging Rep. Jackie Walorski); MN-02 (Mike Obermueller vs. John Kline); NE-02 (Brad Ashford vs. Lee Terry); and WV-01 (Glen Gainer vs. David McKinley). They could always be included later, though. Obermueller, for instance, made R2B last cycle, as did IN-02 (though with a different Democratic challenger).

11:13 AM PT: MI-12: A lot of progressive activists wish the DCCC wouldn't take sides in Democratic primaries, and while it's not an especially common occurrence, it certainly does happen. (See our item on the D-Trip's newly launched Red to Blue program for some examples.) In most cases, though, you can understand the committee's motivations, even if you disagree with them; usually, they center around perceived electability in the general election.

But the latest example is a serious head-scratcher. On Friday, local tip sheet Inside Michigan Politics released a poll showing Debbie Dingell, the wife of retiring Rep. John Dingell, crushing all comers in a hypothetical Democratic primary—all well and good. However, later that same day, the DCCC's press shop sent out an "in case you missed it email," to call attention to the strong numbers for Dingell.

Why do this, though? The 12th is a safely Democratic seat, so there's no need for the DCCC to play favorites here. And it's not as though state Sen. Rebekah Warren, the most likely challenger to Dingell, isn't already aware of these poll numbers herself. So was this email meant to send a message that other would-be contenders should step aside? If not, why send out this poll? The D-Trip certainly didn't issue a press release when Brenda Lawrence released an internal of the Democratic primary in the nearby 13th District (another open seat). What gives?

11:37 AM PT: It turns out the D-Trip may not be backing away from their Aguilar endorsement, since DCCC chair Steve Israel did recently host a D.C. fundraiser on Aguilar's behalf.

11:45 AM PT: NY-06, -07: Former New York City Comptroller John Liu has finally laid to rest the notion that he might challenge freshman Rep. Grace Meng in the Democratic primary by endorsing her on Monday. However, he still hasn't ruled out a run against another Democratic congresswoman, Nydia Velazquez, in the 7th District, even though his political base really lies in Meng's 6th. But here's a much better idea: Liu could primary turncoat state Sen. Tony Avella, who just joined the GOP-enabling Independent Democratic Conference in the Senate. It's not an ideal seat for him, but Liu, who's been critical of Avella's move, does live there, and he'd be a hero just for trying.

11:53 AM PT: KY-Gov: A new poll from Public Opinion Strategies of the 2015 GOP primary for governor finds state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer leading Louisville Metro Councilman Hal Heiner by a 42-14 spread. (POS says the survey was not conducted on behalf of any candidate.) Neither Comer nor Heiner has formally said they'll run next year, when Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear will be term-limited, but the Lexington Herald-Leader says both are "likely" to do so.

12:13 PM PT: MN-Gov: A new SurveyUSA poll of the rarely-tested Minnesota governor's race finds Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton in solid shape for re-election, leading all of his potential Republican challengers:

• 51-34 vs. former state Rep. Marty Seifert

• 53-33 vs. investment banker Scott Honour

• 53-32 vs. state Sen. Dave Thompson

• 52-34 vs. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson

• 52-31 vs. state Rep. Kurt Zellers

• 52-31 vs. Some Dude Rob Farnsworth

The remarkable consistency across all of these numbers shows that the GOP field is largely unknown. That's very similar to what PPP found in an October poll, though there, Dayton's leads were all around 10 percent; here, they're double that. Demographic crosstabs are not yet available, but KSTP, the TV station that commissioner this poll, says it will release them on Tuesday night. They're also promising numbers on the Senate race, where Democrat Al Franken is seeking re-election to a second term.

12:29 PM PT: OK-Sen-B: As expected, former state Sen. Randy Brogdon has switched from the governor's race, where he was attempting to primary incumbent Mary Fallin, to Oklahoma's open Senate contest, where he'll face a couple of heavyweights in the Republican primary (Rep. James Lankford and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon). Despite a decent performance in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, it's not clear how serious Brogdon is, since he stonewalled radio station KRMG's repeated attempts to contact him about his intentions until he sent out a mass email on Monday. KRMG tried to follow up, only to discover that Brogdon's campaign office is "a mailbox at a UPS store."

12:45 PM PT: AZ-Gov: Democrat Fred DuVal has released a new internal from Garin-Hart-Yang showing Arizona's race for governor as competitive, though there are a lot of undecideds—similar to the limited polling we've seen so far. DuVal, a former chair of the Arizona Board of Regents, is tied at 32 apiece with state Treasurer Doug Ducey and trails Secretary of State Ken Bennett by a narrow 35-32 spread. On a generic ballot, voters also give a small edge to a hypothetical Republican candidate, 43-39. As you can see, leaners evidently were not pushed, but given how early it still is, it makes sense that this race has not yet taken more shape.

1:26 PM PT: AZ-07, -09: So is Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema really serious about switching from the swingy 9th District to the open, but much more liberal, 7th? What began life late last week as a mere rumor has become a much realer possibility now, seeing as Sinema's refusing to comment and a top advisor refused to rule out the idea. But as we've noted, such a move would not be easy, and one of the candidates already running in the 7th, state Sen. Ruben Gallego, paid Sinema a biting left-handed compliment that explains precisely why:

"I'm a big supporter of Kyrsten Sinema. I got to work for her, work with her. I've donated to her campaign the first time around, the second time around, and I hope she stays in District 9 because she is the right moderate, business-oriented voice for that district."
Those are the exact same kinds of sentiments that would be turned into attacks against Sinema if she did decide to seek re-election in the 7th.

Meanwhile, there are a few more updates on would-be contenders (all Democrats). Former Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon announced that he's out, as, apparently, did current Mayor Greg Stanton, who said he hopes to "continue serving" in his current role "for the next six years." The Arizona Republic also mentions one more new potential name, state Senate Minority Leader Anna Tovar. And the Washington Examiner says that former White House staffer Ronnie Cho is considering a bid, but that's just according to unnamed sources.

1:29 PM PT: CA-15: Barack Obama has endorsed Rep. Eric Swalwell, who faces a challenge from fellow Democrat Ellen Corbett, the state Senate majority leader.

1:36 PM PT: NY-24: In an attempt to avoid a split, the Republican and Conservative Parties are trying to unite around former federal prosecutor John Katko, who recently received the blessing of local leaders from both parties. However, seven other hopefuls also met with the GOP, and at least one of Katko's rivals, Army vet John Lemondes, hasn't ruled out a primary bid of his own. Republicans are hoping to knock off red-shirt freshman Rep. Dan Maffei, though they won't have an easy time of it in this 57-41 Obama district.

1:42 PM PT: CO-Gov: Former GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez was set to announce his campaign on Monday, but it turns out he's merely filing paperwork and won't formally kick things off until Tuesday. Why? Because he's in D.C., making a pitch to the RNC in support of Denver's bid to host the GOP convention in 2016. As ColoradoPols observes, you never want to announce your bid for governor of Colorado from Washington. (Alternately, you don't want to announce your bid for New Jersey senator from Colorado.) A pointless, unforced error indeed.

1:51 PM PT: IL-Gov: A new survey from Southern Illinois University finds the same thing that every other poll has: Wealthy venture capitalist Bruce Rauner leads the GOP primary field. Rauner takes 33 while state Sen. Bill Brady's at 12, state Sen. Kirk Dillard's at 11, and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford is at 10. SIU also included general election matchups, and again, as we've seen elsewhere, Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is in dire shape. Here's how he fares:

• 38-40 vs. Rauner

• 37-40 vs. Brady

• 37-40 vs. Dillard

• 38-38 vs. Rutherford

It goes without saying, but the high 30s is an ugly place for an incumbent to find himself.

2:04 PM PT: FL-19: Things are heating up a bit in the all-important GOP primary in Florida's other special election, down in the 19th District. An anonymous new super PAC called the Liberty and Leadership Fund is running an ad attacking businessman Curt Clawson, who himself has already been on the air with a spot that referenced his college basketball days. Picking up on that theme, this ad features a guy dribbling a ball up and down the court, as the narrator accuses Clawson of "playing games" because "after he made millions," he "cut health insurance to 2,000 families." She also says he "talks bad about government," which is not English. Maybe he'll break bad, too?

Clawson responded with a spot of his own, featuring two workers at a company he once ran, car parts maker Hayes Lemmerz International, thanking him for saving their jobs. The super PAC buy is for $46,000, but there's no word on the size of Clawson's.

2:10 PM PT: SC-Sen-A: Sen. Lindsey Graham's latest ad touts his anti-tax, anti-spending, anti-Obamacare credentials. The buy is reported to be statewide, for "six figures."

2:16 PM PT: TX-04: Nonagenarian Rep. Ralph Hall is going folksy to close out the primary campaign, running a TV ad in which he points to the various wrinkles on his face and explains how he acquired them—this one by "taking on the liberals when they attacked our Second Amendment rights," that one "when we fought 'em on Obamacare." Hall, who faces a credible challenge in the GOP primary from former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe, insists he's still "got room for a few more wrinkles."

2:27 PM PT: AR-Gov: GOP ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson's first ad extensively features his wife, Susan, who explains that "Asa" proposed to her... 11 months after their first date. Asa tries to interject that "that's Arkansas for you," but a year-long courtship strikes me as entirely unremarkable. What is remarkable about the spot is the second half, where Susan says that her husband is "not afraid to listen to the other side—in fact, he wants to hear the other side, so we can pull together to get the greater good done." Democrats running in red states constantly tout their bipartisan bona fides, but it's very rare to see a Republican do the same. The Hutchinson campaign says it's spending $55,000 to air the ad.

2:43 PM PT: SC-Gov, WI-Gov: Two new RGA ads are now available, one in Wisconsin, where they've been going at Democrat Mary Burke for a little while, and one in South Carolina, where they're newly attacking Democrat Vincent Sheheen. In the Palmetto State, the governors association slams Sheheen for backing Obamacare, and in particular his support for expanding Medicaid. Sheheen had a pretty clever response, though, pointing out that RGA chair Chris Christie expanded Medicaid in New Jersey, calling it "the smart thing to do."

The Wisconsin spot, meanwhile, accuses Burke of presiding over "debt, mismanagement, [and] waste" when she ran the state's Department of Commerce under ex-Gov. Jim Doyle. Doyle must still poll poorly, as the ad references him twice, referring to the "Doyle-Burke Wisconsin" that yielded "130,000 fewer jobs." That number's accurate, but the claim is specious, since Doyle left office in 2010, at a point when the Great Recession's severe damage to employment numbers nationwide was barely starting to ebb.

3:56 PM PT: FL-13: With a week to go before the special election, conservative blog Red Racing Horses has released a new poll from PMI that has Republican David Jolly leading Democrat Alex Sink 46-44, while "another candidate on the ballot" takes 5 percent. RRH says they asked the question this way rather than by naming Libertarian Lucas Overby because they think it will "reduce the tendency of poll participants to declare their support for a third-party candidate for whom they will not actually vote." This phrasing invites the opposite, though, because low-information voters can mentally fill in the blank with whatever idealized candidate they like, rather than having to say, "Oh, yeah, I'll vote for the Libertarian."

PMI doesn't have much of a track record, though they've conducted a couple of polls for RRH in the past. A Nov. 2012 survey of the LA-03 GOP runoff did pretty well, calling an 18-point win for Rep. Charles Boustany; he prevailed by 22 over Rep. Jeff Landry. But a poll conducted just ahead of last May's special election in SC-01 found Republican Mark Sanford tied at 46 with Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch; Sanford won by 9 points.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:00:17 AM PST

  •  MN-Gov (12+ / 0-)

    S-USA takes a stab at polling the race on behalf of KSTP.
    http://m.kstp.com/...
    Dayton leads all comers from 17-21.

    The Senate numbers to drop tonight.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:05:02 AM PST

    •  Funny to think that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      if O'Reilly hadn't been such an easily offended gasbag and not literally laughed out of court when he sued Franken, he might never have won that Senate seat for the Democrats. Instead, he'd be an amusing but still not-particularly-well known comedy writer.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:36:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  if these numbers are anywhere near close (7+ / 0-)

      his victory will not be confined to Hennepin and Ramsey.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:27:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO-Gov: Bob Beauprez running (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Christopher Walker
  •  DCCC has Aaron Woolf and NY-21 at Emerging Races (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, SaoMagnifico, Gygaxian

    http://dccc.org/...

    I don't even know what to think.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:25:24 AM PST

    •  I'm still flabbergasted at what might be an epic (4+ / 0-)

      failure in this district. Our nominee should have been Scozzafava...

      Anyways, I've checked out his website and from a visual stand point he doesn't look like some loonbag...so maybe there is hope...

    •  Would you rather (4+ / 0-)

      the DCCC give him no attention at all so that he can definitely lose? I'm sorry if that sounds testy on my part, but really, unless a better alternative emerges, it's time to stop beating up on the guy. Nobody else appears to be willing to run. He's not the ideal candidate, compared to some of the other possibilities, but none of them ran. His profile might be somewhat odd for the area, but it's not like he's running as Kucinich in Hal Rogers district. And while Stefanik has a seemingly better background, she didn't single handedly strangle the life of out bin Laden. Hell, she might not even win the primary.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:34:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My comment was literal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        It's such an odd development.

        19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

        by Tayya on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:42:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not really all that odd to me. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo

          Perhaps the failure of recruitment here was greater than in other districts, but that appears to be the case. Nobody else appeared to want to run badly enough, so we have Woolf. And considering we hold the seat now and Obama won the district by a solid margin, he's getting some DCCC attention right now.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:57:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  We probably want Stefanik to win the primary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        Doheny is probably the stronger candidate.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:53:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why do you say that? (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:57:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Past results (4+ / 0-)

            I mean he did gt 45%+ in 2010/2012 against a Dem incumbent who was a very good fit for the district.  He even got 48% in 2012 so it's not like he's done poorly.

            He's now facing a non-incumbent who has never run for anything before (that I can tell) who doesn't seem like a great fit.  I still don't see what the initial hubbub about Stefanik was all about.  

            Stefanik to me isn't really much of anything.  I know the story about a locally owned family business sounds good, but when you leave it to go make your own path it's hard to sell it.  My parents used to run a dairy farm in the district, but today I live in Philly and work at an insurance company.  If I rode around that district trying to tell people how much I understand the hardships of small businesses there today even I'd roll my eyes at me.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:08:03 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It wouldn't (0+ / 0-)

              be safe to ride around with a mirror attached to your steering wheel. I'm not sure someone like you can't see this, but oh well...

              Anyway, good points. Most people seem to be talking up Stefanik because she has party support, although Doheny isn't hated by the local party.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:14:32 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Let's flip it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Jacob1145

                Let's say a Dem in 2010 got 48% in swing district, but in 2012 the GOP rep resigned.  Wouldn't we deem the 48% getting Dem from the mid-term a solid bet in 2012?

                I think people discount (1) how good a fit Owens was for the district and (2) Doheny ran pretty strong even as a flawed candidate.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:19:21 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I (0+ / 0-)

                  wasn't really arguing she was stronger than him. I'm just saying more people seem to be talking her up as the stronger candidate and/or the one most likely to get the nomination.

                  "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                  by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:24:20 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  This is a really good explanation of her pitch! NT (0+ / 0-)

              Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

              by CF of Aus on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:32:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  I think Doheny might be the better target... (0+ / 0-)
        •  Don't forget Doheny has all the vulnerabilities (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jacob1145

          of being painted as a vulture capitalist that hurt him in 2010 and 2012. Though Owens' 2% win was rather poor compared to Obama's 6% win in the district, so who knows.

          •  Understood (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf

            I just think take mid-term turnout and lack of an incumbent and I give Doheny a definite edge.  And the vulnerabilities are probably played out, from his career to his smooching another woman and so on.  

            Still he got 48% in 2012...if he had gotten 43% in 2012 I might believe he's a non-starter, but 48 tells me he is pretty strong.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:15:10 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I think Doheny would be tougher to beat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          but mostly because he'll be on the ballot in any case under one of the minor parties. If Stefanik gets the GOP line Doheny will probably get close to the 6% that Hoffman got in 2010 just on name rec. That could make the difference. In contrast, if Doheny gets the GOP line he won't lose any votes to Stefanik as she won't be on the ballot.  

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:50:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  We definitely want Stefanik to win the GOP line (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, jncca, WisJohn

          since Doheny has Independence locked up and is starting to corral the Conservative endorsements.  If on election day Stefanik is the GOP nominee and Doheny is Ind and Con, we should win easily with that split vote.

      •  Well, the filing deadline isnt until the end (0+ / 0-)

        of April.

        If the filing deadline had passed, then of course, DCCC showed give him support if he is the only Dem running.

        But I wish they were looking for someone else here. Cant speak for Tayya, but this does odd to me for that reason. Could they not find anyone better so they are going to support Woolf already?

        I kind of agree on the GOP candidates. Not to underestimate them, but I think both, especially Stefanik, arent incredibly strong candidates. Still until, we see more about Woolf, I would put this race at lean R.

        •  at this point with the major contenders out (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MrLiberal, bjssp, Stephen Wolf, jj32

          I'd rather they aligned with the person the local Dems support than create a DCCC v. local Dems blow-up by supporting their own candidate.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:24:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If the DCCC had somebody, we'd know (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, bjssp

            At this point I think it's safe to assume the DCCC asked people to enter and everyone said no.  Kind of sad but our bench isn't all that great in the district...when Scozz/Aubertine/Russell all said no we were going to have to turn to an unconventional candidate.  Worse things have happened.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:30:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Scott Murphy said no too (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              An effort should have been made to recruit good candidates here, because they do exist and many did express interest. Instead, we're stuck with a Some Dude who, the DCCC clearly agrees, is unlikely to hold the seat.

              Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:01:22 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  DCCC Red-2-Blue Candidates (3+ / 0-)

    The DCCC finally released their Red-2-Blue roster of candidates and districts. Although most of the list is predictable, there are some decisions here that are headscratchers:

    CA-10: Michael Eggman was only named in Emerging Races, and not R2B, even though he was one of the candidates included in the first wave of the DCCC's Jumpstart Program a while back.
    CA-31: Although named an R2B district, Pete Aguilar's name is nowhere to be found in this list, even though he, like Michael Eggman above, was included in the first wave of the Jumpstart Program.
    NY-19: Sean Eldridge is only in Emerging Races, and not a full R2B candidate, even though he was a Jumpstart candidate and posted good fundraising numbers. And I thought NY-19 was already very competitive.
    MI-11: Although named as an Emerging Races district, I'm surprised they just didn't list Bobby McKenzie specifically, given that he was named as a Jumpstart candidate last year. Are they expecting or recruiting someone else to get into this race?
    PA-06: I guess Manan Trivedi's entry into the race has the DCCC concerned.
    PA-08: Although Kevin Strouse was selected as a Jumpstart Candidate, his name is not on this list, and PA-08 is just an Emerging Races district versus a R2B district. Anyone here from PA-08? Who has the momentum now - Strouse or Shaughnessy Naughton?

    I know this list is just preliminary, and will likely change over the course of the election cycle. However, overall, it's a good start. Your thoughts?

    28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

    by BluntDiplomat on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:32:01 AM PST

  •  PA: Gay marriage 57-37; Medical marijuana 85-14 (14+ / 0-)
    Pennsylvania voters support 57 - 37 percent a law allowing same-sex couples to marry. Again, there are partisan, gender and age differences:

    Support is 74 - 22 percent among Democrats and 58 - 35 percent among independent voters, with Republicans opposed 59 - 36 percent;

    Men support same-sex marriage 53 - 41 percent, while women support it 60 - 34 percent;

    Voters 18 to 29 years old support it 80 - 15 percent, while voters over 65 years old are divided, with 44 percent in favor and 48 percent opposed.

    Pennsylvania voters support the legalization of medical marijuana use 85 - 14 percent, with support at 78 percent or higher among every partisan, gender and age group, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Even voters over 65 years old support medical marijuana 84 - 14 percent.

    Voters are divided, however, on the legalization of possession of "small amounts of marijuana for personal use," the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. While 48 percent support legalization of so-called recreational use of marijuana, 49 percent are opposed.

    Link
    •  Huge (5+ / 0-)

      Look at those numbers for marriage equality for 18-29 year olds (my generation).  I can't say I'm surprised, but it still shocks me to see it written out like that.  The overall number is about where Michigan's most recent poll put our state's support the other day.  The days of using this as a wedge issue at the state level in favor of the GOP is just about over.

      •  Suprised full pot legalization isn't that popular (0+ / 0-)

        And people seem to think it's had a negative impact on Colorado's image as well. It's good it has solid support among millenials but among other groups not that good at all. It makes me realize why some politicians have been dragging their feet on this issue.

        •  That seems to be a thing in Qpac polling (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          they find full on legalization a little less popular than other pollsters, but nowhere near as low as state pollsters like Siena (NY). It seems to me to be a massive waste of questions to ask crap like what people think of Colorado's image rather than the impact on the state itself.

        •  I'm not surprised (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, LordMike, jncca

          PA is an old state. It's an issue, like you say, that's generational.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:47:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not surprised. It's a matter of trust. (6+ / 0-)

          I suspect most people realize it probably wouldn't be the end of the world, but worry about the potential effects, which may or may not be valid. They worry that their kids don't know when to stop.

          To me, it's a lot like drinking. It's known to happen, because it happened when the parents were growing up, but the concern is that kids will do it excessively. It's really a matter of trusting other people to handle the stuff responsibly. That's always a big thing, but I'd think it's more pronounced when it's your own kids.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:49:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I Suspect The Legalization Tide Will Keep Rising.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ProudNewEnglander

            ...until legalization starts happening in more places and then there will be a majority pushback.  With legalization comes normalization and expanded usage, so a lot of soccer moms who currently think it might be worth legalizing it might rethink their position when their star athlete son drops out of sports to sit in his room passing the bong around every day....and worse yet, blow through his college money spending $5,000 a year on pot.  This stuff all obviously happens now with marijuana being illegal, but it will happen a lot more with legalization and subsequent normalization.

            •  Expanded usage is not actually guaranteed (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, bythesea, Skaje, propjoe

              in the Netherlands when the de-facto legalized in the cities usage didn't rise. But that's getting into policy and in terms of elections the rising tide is inevitable when the younger population is overwhelmingly in favor and the 65+ crowd is overwhelmingly opposed. I would be shocked if we don't see legalization pass at the ballot box in 2016 in California, Nevada, Maine, etc. If activists were smart they'd go for Ohio and Michigan too which would both likely pass it given the current polling trends and would help Dems considerably.

              •  Colorado's Sales Numbers..... (0+ / 0-)

                .....would seem to suggest legalization is definitely raising usage numbers but the variable there with out-of-state sales makes it tough to quantify.  Is there any current polling on the ballot box initiatives you cited for California, Nevada, and Maine?  Since pre-election polling support turned to election night opposition once already in California, I wouldn't discount the prospect of an aggressive law enforcement ad campaign in the weeks before the election turning voters against the issue again, especially in a lower-turnout midterm.

                I sense that on a lot of these ballot issues, the public's willingness to embrace change (in either direction) often melts under the spotlight in the 9th inning.  The tide may have finally turned on gay marriage where voters are now starting to actually vote in support of them commensurate to poll numbers, but I suspect marijuana legalization is probably gonna remain similar to ballot box initiatives on abortion restrictions, "personhood amendments", and stem cell research, among a few others that jump to mind, in that it polls well in the abstract but public opinion can easily be swayed to circle the wagons in the privacy of the voting booth.

            •  On the contrary (9+ / 0-)

              I think once legalization happens, the consensus will shift even more in favor of it.  Colorado voters approve very strongly of keeping legalization now (58-39, according to Quinnipiac's last poll), much more than the relatively narrow majority that passed it.  And now that the legislature is reaping the tax benefits of it, they'll never try to get rid of it.

              Maybe we just have to wait longer here in Colorado for the "pushback", but I don't see any signs of it yet.  I know newspapers around the rest of the country make it like Colorado is becoming some kind of drug haven with half the population smoking weed now, but from what I've seen...nothing much has really changed.  The people that want to smoke weed now were already smoking weed beforehand.  The ones who aren't interested were not before.  Only difference is people have a legal avenue now, and that money goes to licensed businesses rather than to dealers.

              •  Could Well Be..... (0+ / 0-)

                ....I always expected there'd be an eventual public opinion backlash to the expansion of legalized gambling that led granny to squander her Social Security checks on slot machines but that hasn't happened in a tangible sense, so the "externalized costs" of legalized marijuana may be ignored as well.  But for policy reasons I'm not gonna get into here, it's very hard for me to see how this particular product's legalization does not trigger a built-in backlash five minutes after it goes mainstream.

            •  Maybe, but (stricter) regulation could (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27

              become part of any further legalization. In other words, I suspect it won't flow so freely.

              That, or maybe it'll be more of a regional thing, and there will be a natural sorting out.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:11:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Sen: Peters goes after Land on auto loans (13+ / 0-)

    And, boom goes the dynamite.

    I've been saying it for months, but don't let Gary Peters' goofy smile fool you; Gary Peters will cut a bagger:

    LANSING — Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Gary Peters plans to put Republican Terri Lynn Land on the defensive for opposing the federal bailout of General Motors and Chrysler.

    Peters and other Democrats Monday will call attention to Land's 2012 statement supporting presidential candidate Mitt Romney's opposition to the rescue. Democrats provided a video of her statements to The Associated Press ahead of scheduled news conferences.

    Romney's anti-bailout stance haunted him in Michigan. Democrats hope Land pays a similar price in a race to replace Sen. Carl Levin.

    This will not land without injury.  There is not too much worse you can do as politician in Michigan than to appear to offer to autoworkers as "let them eat cake" attitude.
    •  I wouldn't get so confident. (6+ / 0-)

      It seems easy enough for Land to simply claim she always supported the bailout and will go back in time in her time machine to prove it, or something. If that doesn't work, she can simply claim she never said she would go back in time to claim she always supported the bailout. If that doesn't work, she can claim she never said she never said she'd go back in time to prove she always supported the bailout. To make it more confusing, she can begin talking about herself in the third person at some point. In the end, people will be so bored and confused they'll just leave her alone and head to lunch.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:31:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Romney tried to do this.  It doesn't work.  This is not that complicated, and that Gary is firing the first shot will make it stick.  To have to explain such a comment means she's already lost on this issue.

        •  You took (5+ / 0-)

          that comment way too seriously, lol.

          I basically agree with you. She can always try to play every side of the issue and/or walk back previously held positions, but that will only do so much. I think we have the edge in this race, and her piss poor campaigning so far isn't doing her any favors.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:36:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Have you been drinking? <n/t> (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        clevelandpacha

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:34:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL, no. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, bythesea, gabjoh

          I was joking. In addition to describing how silly Land's constant back and forth is, my words were a representation  of the sort of ridiculous switching of positions that Republicans have been known to do in recent years. At least that's how I intended it. Kind of meta, I guess.

          Funny, too, because the other day, I thought to myself, "One of these days, someone is going to ask me if I have been drinking." I guess it's time to press the pause button on the jokes and head to Google News to see if Liz Cheney has volunteered to lead a brigade into the Ukraine. Oh, who am I kidding? She's a Cheney!

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:43:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, goody! There's more. (10+ / 0-)

      Just in from MLive.com:

      Peters scheduled an early afternoon campaign event at a United Auto Workers local in Sterling Heights, where he plans to tout the auto industry's comeback and bring attention to Land's opposition to the auto bailout. Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel will attend, too.

      The Michigan Democratic Party also arranged a morning conference call during which U.S. Rep. Sander Levin, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and former Lt. Gov. John Cherry were expected to criticize Land.

      ...

      Peters, who has been focusing on fundraising and recently finished a campaign swing through the Upper Peninsula, has decided to more actively confront Land himself.

      This is a television ad in the making.
    •  And this is why (0+ / 0-)

      I wish Levin had held on for one more term, so Peters would've (presumably) run for governor instead.  The man seems kinda dorky, but he's a hell of a speaker, and is good at working a crowd.

      Unfortunately, I don't get the same vibe from Schauer.  He's not bad, but he doesn't come across as having the same fire in his belly.  At least not from what I've seen.

      •  I have to disagree (0+ / 0-)

        But in the most respectful way.  Having had this guy as a neighboring congressman (and who represented part of my city), I'm pretty familiar with him.  I'd argue that he's far more ideological and passionate than Peters.

        The problem?  He is a poor speaker and socially awkward, which is why I think some people may not recognize how liberal he is until you get to see him work.  People underestimate Schauer because of this, but you don't get to be a party leader in the legislature without having some kind of talent.

        Peters is a far more pragmatic player.  He is undoubtly a more astute political operator, but he's whoever you want him to be.  I'd argue that this makes him a much better gubernatorial candidate than Schauer, for sure.

        BTW, after not having got what people saw in him in 2010, I'm totally on the Dan Kildee for governor bandwagon.  I'm not even sure if this is still something he wants to do, but this guy is a helluva convincer.

        •  I like Schauer. (0+ / 0-)

          I do.  I think he's been running on exactly what he needs to run on so far, and I do think he's a talented politician.

          But most of what I've seen of him is his speeches, which as you point out, are not his strong point.  And I do think that could be a problem for him.  

          I'd actually prefer that they switch races, to be honest.  I know polls are showing Land strong now, but I don't think that lasts too much longer.

          I actually don't know much about Kildee.  What's brought you around to his side?

  •  Ex-aide to President Obama may run in AZ-07 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bjssp, madmojo, itskevin, brunoboy

    Ronnie Cho is eyeing the safely Democratic district in south Phoenix. Story here.

    If successful, he would be the first Korean-American elected to Congress.

    Cho also has been an editor at Newsweek/Daily Beast and worked at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security as associate director in the Office of Legislative Affairs.

    The former campaign staffer was featured prominently in HBO's documentary about President Obama's election in 2008, called "By the People: The Election of Barack Obama." Reviewing the documentary, Politico called Cho the "heart and soul of the film."

    This looks like a fun primary!

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:27:35 AM PST

    •  Jay Kim (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, jncca, Mark27, kurykh

      First elected in 1992, he was actually the first Korean American elected to Congress, if I remember right.

      You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

      by Samara Morgan Dem on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:57:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Someone's delusional (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      That district is not going to support a Korean-American who left the state 7 years ago over a local Hispanic.  NOT HAPPENING.

      Apparently Cho went to Thunderbird High (which is in AZ-06, but relatively close to the district), and ASU, and worked on Napolitano's 2006 campaign before heading for greener pastures.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 10:20:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Odd story about Sheryl Sanderg running for Senate (0+ / 0-)

    The Daily Mail came out with a bizarre story about Sheryl Sandberg supposedly running for Senate in 2016 against Barbara Boxer as a Democrat. Now it's being reported as untrue by other sources. Of course the Daily Mail is known for BS stories but if it were to come down to Sandberg or Boxer I wonder who'd win.

    •  Boxer, easily, I think. (0+ / 0-)

      I doubt there's any real displeasure with her in the state party, and to defeat a sitting incumbent in a state as expensive as California would be ridiculously expensive. Who's going to fund this challenge? I don't know her personal net worth, but unless she's really rolling in it and doesn't care about possibly pissing a lot of it away, she'd probably look at it as a very poor return on investment.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:56:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sounds made up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome, gabjoh

      I've kind of considered Sandberg over-rated in her career, and I like Boxer for whatever reason.  I'd see Boxer winning pretty easily in terms of results, but she'd have to work hard.  But she's up to it IMHO.

      And I can't imagine why Sandberg would want the job, to be honest.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:04:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I suspect Boxer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        may not run for reelection.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:14:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It wouldnt surprise me if Sandberg did (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      run for political office. She is a Dem, I believe she was a fundraiser for Obama and was chief of staff to Larry Summers when he was Treasury secretary.

      A primary challenge wouldnt make sense, but in an open Senate in 2016 or 2018, I could see her running.

      Sandberg might also get a post in the cabinet if Clinton wins the election.  

    •  CA is the graveyard of businesspeople (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold, gabjoh

      seeking high political office. I suppose she is pretty famous and if she really worked on building relationships for the next couple years it's possible, but typically businesspeople see political success in the state as a factor of turning on the money spigots. It's hardly that simple, as Governor Checchi, Governor Whitman and Senator Fiorina couldn't tell you because they don't exist.

      I've said it many times before, but in this state, big city mayors and statewide officeholders are the ones who move up. Representatives (especially ones not from LA or SF) and businesspeople rarely do. Admittedly, about once every couple decades we seem to just say the hell with it and put a famous actor in there, but we should be good for a while now.

  •  NY St Sen: Expel IDC from party? (6+ / 0-)

    I found this rather humorous since his very call for it explains why it won't happen.  For reference Marty Dilan is the father of Erik Dilan who Vito Lopez got to run against Nydia Valasquez in 2012.

    ALBANY — A prominent Brooklyn Democrat is calling for five dissident Senate Dems — who have teamed with the Republicans to run the chamber — to be booted from the party.

    ...

    “You can’t run and get elected on the Democratic line, work with the opposing party on an agenda that goes against what we put forward, and then run in the election as a Democrat,” he said. “Let them run on the Republican line and see if they get reelected.”

    Dilan said he will contact this week the Democratic chairmen from the counties the five are from to push for removal proceedings.

    Under state election law, “a member or officer of a party committee may be removed by such committee for disloyalty to the party or corruption in office after notice is given and a hearing upon written charges has been had.”

    Notice he is calling on five people to be disenrolled and not six.  Which makes sense.  He's from Brooklyn and he knows there is no way that his boss, Frank Seddio, is going to make a move against State Senator Simcha Felder who caucuses directly with the Republicans rather than joining the IDC.

    Politics is local and other counties are not going to do what Kings County (Brooklyn) is unwilling to do itself.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:40:04 AM PST

    •  Were you the one who said a few days ago (0+ / 0-)

      the best path forward might be to try to topple the leader and then watch the others fall back into line?

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:49:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, ehstronghold

        Right now Klein is the only one with a primary challenger.  And taking him out would send a message.  He's also the only one who isn't from a swingy district who has the strong backing of his local party.

        Klein's district is essentially made out of all the white parts of the Bronx.  With a little bit of Westchester.  Though less conservative than his predecessor Guy Velella which had more white working class areas of places like Yonkers.

        Avella probably will get a challenger too.  Hell given his primary run against the Queens machine for all we know he was threatened with one before his switch.  Avella though is probably far too popular to topple.  And even if you did this is a district Republican Frank Padavan represented for decades.

        And like an idiot I forgot to post the Politicker supplied link.  http://www.nydailynews.com/...

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:39:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  NY desperately needs party discipline (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      I wish Cuomo had the balls but he seems complacent with the IDC. Boot them from the party and force them to run as Republicans no primary involved and run our strongest candidates against them. There needs to be a major push by the party in order for this to happen.

  •  MS-02: Rep. Bennie Thompson... (7+ / 0-)

    Won't face an opponent for reelection this year.

    Turnout in Thompson's district is already among the lowest in the country.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:08:32 AM PST

  •  New Christie Scandal in the Making? (0+ / 0-)

    From CBS NY:

    Two Port Authority executives appointed by New Jersey Gov. Christie orchestrated a toll-hike plan in 2011 that was later scaled back to bolster the images of New Jersey’s and New York’s governors, according to published reports.
    It sounds, well, less petty and outrageous than the other stuff. Hell, it seems kind of par for the course, if you think about how many politicians are reluctant to ask for more money from taxpayers. Still, this can't help his image.

    He's still out raising money, and quite successfully, too.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:14:48 AM PST

  •  TX-Gov: a ray of hope in the Texas Tribune poll? (7+ / 0-)

    Charles Kuffner points out that they have Abbott leading Davis only 57-32 among Anglos, and that this would be a better performance among whites than any other statewide Dem candidate had in any polls just prior to an election in recent years - and better than any have done in the exit polls either (Bill White did the best, getting 29% of the Anglo vote). The reason Abbott still has an overall 11-point lead is largely because they find him slightly ahead with hispanics (in a tiny sample size).

    Now I am pretty much the first person to warn against scrounging around in the crosstabs to try and discern a preferred narrative. So I only mention this in the spirit of suggesting this may be an interesting data point to watch in future polls. Because if Davis stays above 30% with Anglos, then a good BGTX-enhanced turnout effort puts her within striking distance.

    •  Would it make any difference? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea

      I wonder if the situation we might see is one where both sides see some sort of drop off. We get a solid share of the white vote, but one that just can't make up for the drop off many assume is likely with nonwhite voters in a non-presidential cycle. The end result is more or less the same. It's just the composition that's different.

      Consider two different electorates. The first one is 67/12/18/3. We get 30 percent of the white vote, 95 percent of the black vote, 60 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 65 percent of everyone else. That gives us 44.25 percent. Now consider an electorate that is 62/13/20/5. We get 25 percent of the white vote, 95 percent of the black vote, 60 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 65 percent of all others. That'd give us 43.1 percent overall.

      You can fiddle with the numbers to get basically any result, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised if white liberals showed up in greater numbers but that their additions were swamped by losses with non-whites, who are just harder to reach. Their side also sees some drop off, but it's not as much as our side.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:31:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's no question that strong performance (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        with each demographic and strong turnout of the Dem base are both necessary conditions for Davis to have so much as a chance at winning. Maybe Battleground Texas (which is now pretty much fused with the Davis campaign) can make that happen. Certainly, everything would have to break right, and even then it would require some good luck - but that 32% is enough for me to feel mildly intrigued by the possibility...

        (BTW, our ceiling with hispanics is a lot higher than 60%, especially considering Abbott represents a xenophobic turn for Texas republican politics.)

        •  Not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Hispanics, like whites, aren't a homogenous group. They don't all vote the same way. Texas Hispanics are more conservative than those in New Mexico or Colorado.

          This is the problem with race/ethnicity-based analyses. People aren't just divided by race, but also by geography. We all crow about our problems with the white vote, for instance, but Vermont is among the whitest states in the country and yet it is perhaps the most liberal.

          I wouldn't be surprised at all if Abbot gets 40% of the Hispanic vote. I also wouldn't be surprised if you're right and it drops well below 40% thanks to a) BGTX and b) Abbot's rather poor outreach to the community. It remains to be seen because BGTX will be registering voters like mad, and any LV model that pops up is likely going to be erroneous just based on that.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 11:24:01 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Note my use of the word 'ceiling.' n/t (0+ / 0-)
          •  I don't know if I'd say they are more (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson

            conservative than other Hispanics. Maybe they are, but I am pretty sure that (a) the TRP has a pretty strong ground game, stronger than parties in other red states and (b) that, whatever else you can say about the party leaders and party operatives, they aren't idiots on this issue, meaning they worked well before it became a national issue to reach out to these people. Maybe (a) and (b) are a little more intertwined than I think, and maybe part of the great outreach just turns out people, both Hispanic and white, than are much more likely to vote for Republicans in general. This doesn't necessarily mean we can't reap the rewards of turning out more Hispanics, who may or may not be more liberal than the average voter.

            The only way this is really a problem for us is if the Hispanic population in Texas proves to be unusually inelastic. Even if it's more like 55-45 in our direction in the coming years, it'll still be good for us. We'd need to get a higher share of the white vote, most likely, but still.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:21:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Couple things (0+ / 0-)

              First, the Texas Republican Party (that's TRP, right?) doesn't have a good ground game at all. Texas has some of the lowest voter turnout in the country. It is strongly Republican solely because no one bothers to turn out. Even based on poor performance among Hispanics, TX would be significantly more competitive (about as competitive as Georgia right now) if voter turnout were on par with other states.

              Second, you're right - I think Shrub partie deux actually won the Hispanic vote in 2000 in Texas. Previously Republicans were quite good about keeping Hispanics happy. These days not so much, but it can sometimes be a while before voting patterns change. Texas Hispanics are used to voting for Republicans because Republicans didn't offend them. That voting habit may be a little difficult to break.

              It should be noted that Hispanics are usually an elastic voting group. Things can change rapidly with them.

              We do need to do better with the white vote. There's some encouraging signs that Austin is growing more liberal with the fast-growing Round Rock suburb being home to many educated and liberal whites coming to work at the various Silicon Hills companies around the city. Houston is also attracting some new blood from out of state. Fort Worth, Waco, Amarillo, etc are all still highly conservative and aren't likely to change, but there's also an increasing minority population in the Rio Grande valley and in Dallas, both of which are trending Democrat.

              The trick is turning them out. That's why BGTX is so incredibly important, and why I feel that Texas will be a very hard state to poll. My guess: Texas Democrats will outperform the polls by around 5%. There are too many first-time voters who'll be voting to think that a traditional LV model will work very well.

              TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

              by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:03:56 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Addendum: (0+ / 0-)

                First and second generation immigrants usually are highly elastic, as there is very little generational goodwill that can take place between a party and a demographic (i.e. demosaurs and blacks for the Democrats). Just look at how the Muslim vote changed between 2000 and 2004.

                TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:06:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Good point. (0+ / 0-)

                  "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                  by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:14:58 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I think (0+ / 0-)

                having a good ground game and having low voter turnout aren't mutually exclusive. The voter turnout sucks, yes, but Republicans could still be good at getting the voters most likely to vote Republican to turn out. They are surely helped by the fact that the TDP need help, but either way, I've thought this was the case.

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:09:45 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think it's more that.. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike, gabjoh

                  Democrats have failed than Republicans have succeeded. The white turnout isn't bad, but it isn't good either, IIRC. It's the black and Hispanic turnout that is in the gutter.

                  Wish I had time to look up some support for my claim - I'm just going off memory while I take a break from studying. I'd like to write a diary on Texas politics at some point, perhaps after my Senate ratings diary, which should give me insight into some of the turnout numbers.

                  (Off topic: Writing Senate ratings diaries is hard. I've a newfound respect for those of y'all who go through the trouble.)

                  TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                  by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:24:08 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  well from DRA analysis (0+ / 0-)

            Obama got 76.7% of the vote in precincts 90+ percent hispanic. TX dems are more hispanic than people think (though less than NY ones)

            formerly demographicarmageddon

            by bonzo925 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:16:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Crosstab like that is useless (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      The Texas Tribune polls I've seen over the years haven't been consistently reliable in the toplines anyway IMO, and then on top of it the crosstabs of even a good poll are unreliable.

      Davis getting in the low 30s among whites translates to the high 40s overall, and I don't see that developing.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 05:43:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-HD-68: Bill Young II running. (4+ / 0-)

    This is a little down in the weeds, but Bill Young II, the son of the late former Congressman Bill Young and his crazy wife, Beverly Young, announced that he would run for the Florida House of Representatives in District 68, which includes a great deal of St. Petersburg in Pinellas County. The incumbent is Democrat Dwight Dudley, who won by an almost 7% margin of victory against a former state representative in 2012. In order to face Dudley, though, Young has to manage to win the Republican primary against the candidate who said that President Obama should be hanged for treason.

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:53:29 AM PST

  •  Boehner says he'll run for speaker again (5+ / 0-)

    link

    I think he would win, but I also predicted that he would step down after the Nov 2014 elections.

    Managing the GOP caucus in 2015-2016 is going to be even worse than it is now, imo, so I could see him leaving  after the 2014 elections.

  •  Dumb Question About the DCCC List (0+ / 0-)

    The write up at the top says Woolf is ranked low. I don't see any numbers indicating a ranking, and the district isn't currently held by a Republican, so...what's up? I apologize if I am missing something obvious, but I like to be on the same page as everyone else with this stuff.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 10:38:30 AM PST

  •  My latest version of an NC non-partisan map (9+ / 0-)

     photo NorthCarolinaNon-PartisanMap3-3-2014StateView_zps744cecbb.png
     photo NorthCarolinaNon-PartisanMap3-3-2014Summary_zps97f962bc.png

    What do you all think in terms of CoI? I really like districts 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 but not having a 14th district really screws up how district 2 comes out. However there's nowhere better for Fayetteville to end up.

    Anyway, this map would have easily gone 7-6 Dem in 2012 with McIntyre winning easily, Kissell getting destroyed but a black Democrat (Alma Adams?) winning easily in the Triad, Shuler winning easily, and Brad Miller winning easily. Finally we'd have been no worse than a Tossup against Renee Ellmers as that district is about the same in partisanship as the state, but it's hard to say whether Bob Etheridge would be able to shake off the "who are you!?" incident and use his 7 previous terms of incumbency to his advantage. I suppose Larry Kissell could have moved to the 2nd instead of Etheridge being the nominee since his district gets sliced 5 ways. Even if McIntyre and Shuler were to not run those districts would be no worse than Tossups. Our house candidates won 49% in the 11th despite being underfunded and the 7th is more Dem than the state downballot with a decent Dem bench.

    •  Hayden Rogers might have had a fighting chance in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC

      the 11th.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 10:57:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Your map is good from a COI perspective (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      But I think the state warrants a third majority minority district at this point.  It's pretty easy to create one from Bladen/Columbus up to Fayetteville and over to Monroe and you only have to split one county, I think.  Then you have six solid Democratic districts, six solid Republican and one toss up.

      •  Perhaps, but I just don't see that getting drawn (0+ / 0-)

        by a commission like California has. Maybe an interest group would push for that but it effectively is unlikely to elect an additional minority candidate given Mike McIntyre's entrenchment among the primary electorate there.

        Anyway this map should have at least elected 3 black Democrats whose districts would have majority black Dem primaries, so it effectively does have a 3rd majority minority district even if it's not the same legally. The state just really needs a 14th district though as then you could have 3 majority minority districts, 3 more with NHW populations in the 50s, and 4 total where the Dem primary is majority black.

    •  2020 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      Just curious...maybe asked and answered already.  Assume NC gains a 14th seat after the 2020 census and the Republicans are still in control.

      1) Would they "split" NC-12 like you have here or would they be able to keep the current Charlotte -> Winston Salem monstrosity?

      2) What will happen if NC-01 can't be drawn AA majority as is (ie has to go into Raleigh and may have to lose some of the more sparsely populated counties)?

      3) With how gerrymandered it is now, it seems impossible to draw another Republican seat and the new seat has to be Dem, yes?

      NY-22 (old and new)

      by elucas730 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:29:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They would likely keep the 12th (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        and the 14th district would have to be a fourth Dem vote sink containing Fayetteville, Robeson County, and maybe parts of Charlotte. The 1st might have to move outward and drop some parts of Durham while the 4th contracts to just the Triangle. It wouldn't have to go into Raleigh since it would need a relatively smaller portion of the state, at worst it would just take in less rural territory and keep Durham since section 5 no longer forces it to go into places like New Bern.

        They'll still be able to draw 10 solid districts unless the state trends to where it's D+ a few points which I don't foresee happening that soon. The worst part of it is that a lot of the Dem growth is happening in already heavily Democratic areas like Charlotte, etc so they'll still be able to pack us.

    •  What I came up with a while back (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ProudNewEnglander, James Allen

      for a nonpartisan NC:

       photo 51368_6-30-2013_4-59-48_PM21_zps08a2e7a1.png

      Old school southern conservative Democrat. NC-09 (home) LA-06 (school).

      by MilesC on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:05:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kissell in the Triad? (0+ / 0-)

      His home is squarely in your 6th district, he'd never run in the 9th. Most like the 8th, but he'd be destroyed there anyway.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 02:53:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  California history lesson (6+ / 0-)

    Many of you may know that only 3 last names have governed California for Team Blue in over a century: Brown, Davis, and that one other dude.  Who was that one other dude?

    Culbert Olson

    And who was Olson?

    Olson was born in Fillmore, Utah, the son of Delilah Cornelia (née King) and George Daniel Olson, on November 7, 1876. Olson's mother was a suffragette and became the first female elected official in Utah. Both his mother and father belonged to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. However, Culbert was unconvinced of the existence of God, becoming an atheist at the age of ten.
    And what did he do as governor?  Not much.  But he sure tried.
    By the first year of his governorship, Olson's proposed budget was cut by nearly 100 million dollars, plus the Governor's proposal of compulsory universal health insurance for every Californian was defeated. The Legislature also defeated legislation to raise income, bank and corporate taxes, as well as Olson's proposed bills to regulate lobbyists and reform the state penal system. State subsidized relief for farmers was also nearly cut in half.
    So he didn't get much done, but he was sure pretty cool.  He lost re-election to Earl Warren in 1942 and told him at the inaugration, "If you want to know what Hell is like, just be Governor."

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 10:54:52 AM PST

  •  Hawaii state senate (11+ / 0-)

    Some relatively big news in state elections.  First term state rep. Richard Fale (R), who made a name for himself by aggressively opposing same-sex marriage, is going to try his luck against veteran state senator Clayton Hee (D) rather than seek re-election.  This gives Republicans a very strong chance of gaining a second state senator (they currently have only one: Sam Slom).

    There's some more information here about Hee's massive fundraising (the most of any state legislator), his polarizing history as the powerful judiciary chair, and commentary on his district and Fale.

    To offer my own commentary, Hee is in trouble because his district is changing.  His physical district did change during redistricting, but that's not just it.  The North Shore used to elect Democrats pretty reliably, but over the past couple cycles, Republicans captured both of the state House seats nested within Clayton Hee's senate district.  Lauren Cheape's (R) victory was by a smidgen and over a Democrat I've heard described as flawed.  I'm hopeful we can get that one back.

    The other one is hopeless though.  That's the seat picked up by Fale (R) in a 15 point blowout.  And while Obama numbers don't tell the whole story in Hawaii because of his massive and probably uneven overperformances, they are useful here.  Cheape's district gave Obama 66%.  Fale's district gave him just 52%, and has become the most Republican in the whole state, even moreso than their historical stronghold of Hawaii Kai (which safely elects Sam Slom and a GOP member to the state House as well).  Accordingly, Hee's senate seat gave Obama 58%, the lowest in the whole state.

    Part of this is likely Romney's overperformance and turnout driver in Mormon-heavy Laie.  Those who remember the 2012 primaries know that the state looked competitive for Santorum until Laie reported.  It wasn't just a lopsided percentage for Romney, it was also a huge raw number of votes compared to their population, and the low turnout across the rest of the state.

    Fale is also Mormon and likely rode the same powerful voting group to a large victory in what was once a competitive seat.  It's not just the Mormons in Laie though...my understanding is that the coming rail system is also driving a wedge between the North Shore and the rest of the island (the North Shore will see no benefit from it, but pays taxes for it since the whole island makes up the combined city/county government of Honolulu).  There's also an urban/rural divide happening as the rural areas feel increasingly isolated from decision making in what is an urban-dominated state, even moreso on Oahu.  Fale likely used all of that to win.  The question is whether he can replicate that against a powerful, if admittedly controversial senate incumbent, in a larger district.

    Hee won by only 7% in 2012 against another strong Republican challenger, that of former state rep. Colleen Meyer.  His was the only senate race that year even remotely competitive, despite the whole chamber being up, so Democrats will certainly focus all of their efforts on Hee this year (Slom isn't up so they couldn't do offense even if they wanted to).

    This is certainly the legislative race to watch in Hawaii this year.  Republicans will throw everything they have at it.

    •  Very interesting (0+ / 0-)

      I just wish there were Hawaiian Mormon elected officials who are also Democrats (and aren't Hanneman).

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 11:25:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We are aware. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Tayya

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:26:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Point taken, I'll discuss something else. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          It's difficult to say something of interest on some of the other topics though, considering half the people on DKE say what I was going to say about most of the elections. I have a niche (perhaps an obsession), and I discuss it because I feel I know it better than most people.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:34:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I dunno about that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      There was a GOP Senator, Fred Hemmings, who retired in 2010, handpicked a successor, who then lost to a Democrat, giving Republicans a 1-seat minority.  He tried to win his seat back, the Dem senator who won in 2010 fell in a primary, and he lost by almost a 60-40 margin.  

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:17:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        quite an upset I recall...the Star-Advertiser (biggest Hawaii newspaper) had called that one Lean GOP, and I agreed at the time.  What a miss.

        With that seat now safe Dem, Republicans will surely focus on trying to knock off Hee.  Richard Fale is their rising star after all, and the Hawaii GOP is becoming increasingly defined by social conservatism as the old liberal Republicans die off or become Democrats.  Duke Aiona, already the defining image of HIGOP's social conservatism, is likely to be joined on the ticket by a church pastor as Lt. Gov. nominee (there is a primary, then the winner runs on a ticket with the Gov nominee).

        I really hope Hee can hang on.

    •  HI House district 47 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, KingofSpades

      Being from the area and looking at the old voting results from the house race, it always seemed to be a competitive seat.  The guy who held it before (back when it was the 46th) was Gil Riviere, a first-term Republican who was primaried out of the new seat by Fale himself.  Before him the Democratic rep, Michael Magaoay, never got more than 60%.

      Interestingly enough, Riviere is running for the 47th district again, this time as a Democrat.   I've met him a couple of times; he was friendly, laid back, big on environmental issues and was definitely much more moderate compared to his successor.  I haven't heard of the Republican running, Feki Pouha, but Fale endorsed him a couple of days ago via Facebook.

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Magaoay never had a strong hold on it.  He won three straight elections by only a few percent each time.  In hindsight, not too surprising the district fell once open.

        But I had no idea Riviere was running again as a Democrat.  I'm wondering whether he only ran as a Republican before because that was the only way to advance, or if he's only running as a Democrat now because he thinks this is the better way to advance.  Truly, party registration is pretty fluid in Hawaii with several elected officials having switched after earlier failed runs, and even two GOP-to-Dem conversions who actually switched after getting elected (state sen. Mike Gabbard and state rep. Karen Awana).  In any case, I hope to see Riviere in the legislature next year.

        I'm glad to hear from someone back home on this.  Lived most of my life in Hawaii but been in Colorado the past few years...starting to fall out of the loop on local politics.  Only so many things that filter out to the big news websites.  After the filing deadline I can look up who's running (and the news sites start running more articles the closer we get to the election), but at the moment I'm missing a lot.

  •  Continuing political battle in Fresno County, CA (4+ / 0-)

    This article contains a lot of good information. It's from the Fresno Bee, newspaper.

    The county is divided between three congressional districts, plus two or three important races for State Senate. Republican party controls almost all those seats, despite registration disadvantage in the county overall.

    Also county's Board of Supervisors is 4 to 1 Repub. majority (though elected on non-partisan ballot).

    But, it's changing--certainly-and-slowly. It all depends on Voter-Turnout.

    Another Bernie Sanders Gay Democrat.

    by brunoboy on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 11:27:00 AM PST

  •  Christie popularity rebounding (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    (Warning, PDF: http://cnu.edu/...)

    Looks like Clinton is still crushing the entire Republican field, but Christie is still only -2 to her. Interesting thing is, it's not that Christie has any significantly higher base of support than the others; rather, there are more undecideds in a Christie/Clinton matchup.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 11:37:34 AM PST

  •  CA: Filing deadline is Friday (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Jacob1145

    and it doesnt appear that the GOP has candidates for Attorney General, Treasurer or Controller.

    A striking difference from 2010, when they had a very strong candidate for AG, and  state legislators running for the other two races.

    It's debatable how much the top of the ticket matters, but better to have a strong one than not. If it ends up being Donnelly for governor + a weak/nonexistent lineup for state races, maybe it helps with some of the congressional races.

  •  KY-Gov: Hal Heiner is to announce this week (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, James Allen

    He wants a leg up over Comer and try to make up for the name recognition gap.  Meanwhile, Dems are still confused over Luallen or Conway.  Both want to lead the ticket, but Conway looks up to Luallen and Luallen isn't satisfied with potential LG status.

    Hey Conway, you're still relatively young.  Just swallow your pride and talk about bidding for the LG spot instead.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:21:25 PM PST

    •  Do you think Conway would be a strong (0+ / 0-)

      candidate for the Senate in 2016? Depending on what happens this year, ALG might be the best choice, if she doesn't in fact win. But if she does win, who else do we have that isn't kind of old? If it wouldn't look too bad, maybe he could become LG and then run for the Senate again.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:25:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Adam Edelen or ALG would both be good. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        Conway already ran against Paul and went hard negative with Aqua Buddha so I'd rather not have him run again against Paul.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:54:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Edelen is only 39. (0+ / 0-)

          For some reason, I thought he was around 55.

          So yeah, if it looks like he'll be competitive, I hope he runs.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:01:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Arkansas filing has closed (6+ / 0-)

    In the Senate, Mark Pryor will face Tom Cotton. There is a Green Party candidate and a Libertarian Party candidate.

    In the governor's race, Asa Hutchinson faces a primary with Curtis Coleman. Mike Ross faces a primary with Lynette Bryant. There is a Libertarian and a Green Party candidate in the race.

    Democrats have no competitive downballot executive races. Republicans do in Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Auditor, and Treasurer. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the Democrats will be able to maintain there status as the "official majority party" in Arkansas - we are only running decent candidates in the governor's race and the attorney general's race. The "official majority party" is a title in most respects, but said party is in charge of crafting the election rules for the state. With the Republicans in charge, precincts are probably going to magically be redrawn to prevent blacks from voting save money.

    The State Senate is a disappointment for both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats are only challenging one seat (SD-35, home of segregationist State Senator Jason Rapert). Republicans are only challenging two Democrats (SD-19, Batesville) and SD-20 (Far Northeast part of the state). All three seats could flip. There are a couple of Republican primaries, mainly between establishment incumbents who supported the expansion of Obamacare and right wing "fiscal conservatives" who want to take healthcare away from 100,000 Arkansans. Democrats should be rooting for Bill Sample, Missy Irvin, and Bruce Holland (even if he's a criminal!) in the three competitive primaries. Anyway, most State Senate races are uncompetitive.

    The State House starts off at 35R, 27D, and 38 contested races. Amazingly, Democrats left a whole bunch of seats uncontested in the Little Rock suburbs (like HD-39) while instead deciding to find candidates in Eastern Benton County in Northwest Arkansas where they have no chance. Democrats got candidates in every race where they do have a chance (HD-18, HD-52, HD-84, HD-97). It is debatable as to whether Democrats could have won back HD-15. They do not have a candidate there. This map gives you a pretty good look at the numerous Republican recruiting failures in the State House, particularly in Southern Arkansas (where no Democratic incumbent should have been unchallenged).

    https://twitter.com/...

    •  Womack is unchallenged (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf
    •  What has caused (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, pademocrat

      the legislature to turn so rapidly? Is it more of a matter of the bottom falling out more quickly than it might have done otherwise, or is it poor party control and sheer incompetence in recruitment?

      Then again, from your comments, it looks like the Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats with recruitment.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 12:50:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My God (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      I'm starting to not regret rating AR-Sen as lean-R. Honestly, I'm half on the fence with putting it as likely-R. That place is becoming scary for us. We dominated that state since Reconstruction, and all of a sudden we can't even make the state leg or several statewide offices competitive.

      At the risk of starting a war (please don't), let's think hypothetically. Would Arkansas be in dire straits right now if it weren't for Obama being elected?

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 01:41:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  it would still be moving away from us (14+ / 0-)

        Gore lost it, and Kerrey did worse than Gore. Arkansas was moving away from us long before Obama. Did Obama accelerate the trend? Probably. But he didn't start it

        •  Think Arkansas will come back to us after Obama... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, pademocrat

          I think this is only temporary and only a reaction to Obama's Presidency he's just not a good fit for this region. While Hillary won't win the state back for us she'll certainty do better than Obama did both times and help us win rebuild in the South/Appalachia.

          •  its a possibility that I don't reject out of hand (9+ / 0-)

            but I lean toward it continuing to move away. It is part of the old South. The areas of the South that are competitive for us now are more modern and urban.

            "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

            by James Allen on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 05:30:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Modern, urban, and have large minority populations (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, Chachy

              Arkansas is the 2nd whitest in the old confederacy right behind Tennessee. I think if anything we have a good ways to fall downballot as white voters start translating their presidential preference further downward. Remember it took the 2010 wave and Blanche Lincoln's epic implosion for her to do as badly as Obama did both times and even in 2010 the worst we did in non-federal statewide races were were low single digit losses. Unfortunately the fastest growing parts of the state aren't heavily minority urban areas like Georgia, but heavily white, straight ticket Republican suburbs such as Saline County, etc around Little Rock, and uber Republican Benton County (home to Wal-Mart).

              I wouldn't be shocked if we lose every statewide race there in 2014 and it's what I'd pick if forced to choose an outcome.

            •  And also importantly (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, bythesea

              states in which we are competitive in the South have minorities.  Arkansas is just 15% Black and around 7% Hispanic by total population.  By comparison, Georgia is 31% Black, 9% Hispanic, and a notable 3% Asian as well.

              I doubt Hillary Clinton would fall under 40% in Arkansas the way Obama did, but 45% sounds like a reasonable prediction to me.  Considering John Kerry also got 45% while losing overall, that would still be a comparably redder PVI than 2004 (assuming Clinton preforms well nationally).

              •  yeah, and I should clarify (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje

                when I said "urban" I meant "urban" and was not using it to mean something else. The non-white component that you and Stephen have added to my assessment is something I shouldn't have left out.

                "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

                by James Allen on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 05:48:56 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

              I think the only reason it's been competitive for as long as it has was simply the influence of the Big Dog. He was, and remains, quite popular.

              TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

              by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:43:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Eh, it's always been bluer than the Deep South (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                since the 1964 realignment.

                Let's compare it to Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee, for example.

                1972:
                AR: R+7
                AL: R+12
                SC: R+10
                TN: R+8

                1980:
                AR: D+4.5
                AL: D+3.5
                SC: D+4
                TN: D+5

                1988:
                AR: R+3.5
                AL: R+6
                SC: R+8
                TN: R+4

                2000:
                AR: R+4
                AL: R+8.5
                SC: R+8.5
                TN: R+3 (Gore home state)

                It's not just a Clinton thing; it's been bluer pre-Clinton (1972, 1988) and post-Clinton (2000).  Only during the Carter years was it similar to other Southern states, and that's because they were bluer, not because Arkansas was redder.  There's just less racial polarization.  That's why it tracks with Tennessee.  Fewer Black people, so less realignment after the Civil Rights Act.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:28:31 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  i sometimes wonder if Pryor will get triaged n/t (0+ / 0-)

        formerly demographicarmageddon

        by bonzo925 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:21:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Faulkner County (4+ / 0-)

      This is a suburban Little Rock County that is fairly Republican downballot. Turns out Republicans left the County Judge race open, meaning Democrats will take it. Always good to have a base!

      Disappointingly, no Democrat managed to file in the Newport, Arkansas mayoral race. Newport is a college town and is located in the Delta. We can't allow Republicans to build a base in these areas if we want to continue to hold State Rep seats.

  •  CA-15: Obama endorses Swalwell (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Gygaxian

    From Carla Marinucci on twitter.

    He is facing a challenge from State Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett.

    •  Ellen Corbett (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, jj32, Jacob1145

      is the poor man's Ro Khanna.

      •  Unlike Khanna though, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, jj32, jncca

        Corbett has some establishment backing and didn't shop around for a district. Her chances of winning, on the other hand...

        24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 02:51:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  or is Swalwell merely a less patient (and whiter) (0+ / 0-)

        version of Ro Khanna?

        What are the implications of the Dem party establishment rushing to entrench Swalwell after he, unlike Khanna and Corbett, held back in 2012 to let Pete Stark have one more term in this deep Blue district?

        What are the policy differences between Corbett and Swalwell?

        •  Not really (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, propjoe

          There were legitimate criticisms of Stark. I have yet to hear actual valid criticisms of Mike Honda's tenure.

        •  Yes and no. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, James Allen, gabjoh, HoosierD42

          Like Khanna, Swalwell took on an entrenched incumbent without establishment backing and (I guess) ran to his right, although Swalwell is not a moderate.

          Swalwell is no Khanna, because he didn't shop around for districts.  He merely ran where he lived.  I guess he's more similar to Gloria Negrete McLeod or to some extent Ted Yoho.  They both won when they weren't supposed to, helped by redistricting but also by the fact that the incumbent wasn't too popular.

          I don't know of policy differences between Corbett and Swalwell, while Khanna is clearly running as a corporate Democrat (disclosure that I've done volunteer work for Honda, but I think what I'm saying is true and not biased).

          Corbett is running on "it's my turn" and because she is the State Senator she has a lot of institutional establishment backing.  And she's a nice woman; I've met her and I like her.  But she has no other credible reason why it should be her and not Swalwell.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:32:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  GNM had a major personal beef with Baca (0+ / 0-)

            and had support of a significant fraction of organized Democrats.  

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 04:35:11 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  The Dem establishment backed Stark in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Swalwell won in spite of them. When he went to DC, he came under the wing of House minority whip Steny Hoyer, mostly because they both went to Maryland. That's why the Dem establishment (the DC one, at least) now backs Swalwell.

          24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 07:35:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  What % Hispanic Is AZ-07? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, benamery21, DCCyclone, WisJohn, gabjoh

    Just strikes me that Synema would be viewed as a villain all around if she abandoned her incumbency at AZ-09 to so blatantly carpetbag for a safe seat.  Definitely hope she doesn't do this.

  •  3700 votes not counted in Warrick County, Indiana (10+ / 0-)

    in the 2012 election due to an error in an electronic voting system. Only 10% of in person, early voting votes counted. The Clerk says that it would not have changed the results in any 2012 elections, but this is just unacceptable.

    http://www.courierpress.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 02:41:24 PM PST

    •  Hand-counted paper ballots (0+ / 0-)

      ...are the best method for conducting elections, even if counting paper ballots by hand is a tedious process.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 11:55:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mini-diary: How would a fair NC 2020 map look? (4+ / 0-)

    Ok, the discussion above inspired me to do this.  This is my attempt to draw a fair North Carolina map for 2020 that takes population changes into account.

    I used the State of NC's Office of Budget and Management official projections from 2010.  Obviously these predictions are low confidence because there are too many variables to make exact predictions (such as... the construction of a planned community of 65,000 people in Chatham County.  That could shake things up.)

    State Population: 10,616,859
    Per District: 758,347

     photo ScreenShot2014-03-03at44634PM_zpscfad6a9a.png

    1st District: GK Butterfield?
    2010 Population: 757,266
    2010 VAP: 50% Black, 42% White
    2008 Pres: 65/34 Obama

    The 1st district is the only district that has no population gain - it's basically stagnant.  Actually, the rural counties are expected to lose population.  But gains in Durham will offset that.  However, the losses in the rural counties are mostly due to white flight, so this district will become even more Democratic.

    3rd District: Walter Jones?
    2010 Population: 688,436
    2010 VAP: 74% White, 17% Black
    2008 Pres: 58/41 McCain

    The 3rd will grow at roughly the same pace as the state at-large, so not much changes here.  Although Walter Jones probably will have retired by 2020.

    7th District: Woody White?
    2010 Population: 638,466
    2010 VAP: 73% White, 17% Black
    2008 Pres: 55/44 McCain

    This region of the state stands to gain 100,000+ people by 2020, mostly in the Wilmington area.  There will be a lot of Republican growth near the Brunswick and Pender County beaches but also Democratic growth in Wilmington and up in Sampson, Duplin, Cumberland and Harnett.  So I don't see much movement in the partisan makeup of the district.  Whoever wins the primary this year will likely be entrenched by then, however David Rouzer doesn't live in this district so that could be a problem for him.

    8th District: Open
    2010 Population: 708,072
    2010 VAP: 48% White, 32% Black, 9% Nat. Am.
    2008 Pres: 57/43 Obama

    This district will become less white and more Democratic by 2020.

     photo ScreenShot2014-03-03at44708PM_zpsdd2e438f.png

    2nd District: Rouzer? Holding?
    2010 Population: 641,983
    2010 VAP: 71% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic
    2008 Pres: 57/43 McCain

    Due to minority growth in eastern Wake as well as Nash, Wilson, Wayne, and even Johnston, this district should move 2-3 points closer to the Democrats by 2020, which means it could be in swing territory at some point in the decade.

    13th District: Brad Miller?
    2010 Population: 618,253
    2010 VAP: 63% White, 20% Black, 9% Hispanic
    2008 Pres: 61/38 Obama

    This district will see a huge population increase by 2020, and will likely be even more safe for Democrats.

    4th District: Someone other than David Price...
    2010 Population: 668,682
    2010 VAP: 69% White, 19% Black
    2008 Pres: 59/40 Obama

    Almost all of the growth in this district will be happening in Durham, Orange and Chatham counties, which means it can only get more Democratic.

    6th District: ??
    2010 Population: 726,268
    2010 VAP: 79% White, 13% Black
    2008 Pres: 62/37 McCain

    NC's booming manufacturing industry was once at the heart of this district, but that industry has pretty much died, and little economic or population growth is expected here in the near future.  This district should stay safely Republican.

     photo ScreenShot2014-03-03at44735PM_zps096156b0.png

    14th District: ??
    2010 Population: 673,589
    2010 VAP: 56% White, 31% Black
    2008 Pres: 61/38 Obama

    If Alma Adams wins the primary this year she might represent this district in 2020, but she's kinda old so it might be a different Greensboro/W-S Democrat.

    9th District: Hudson? Pittenger?
    2010 Population: 622,252
    2010 VAP: 81% White, 9% Black
    2008 Pres: 59/40 McCain

    We may see significant minority growth in this district by 2020, but it should still be in the Republican column.  Hudson and Pittenger would have to fight each other for this district.

    12th District: ??
    2010 Population: 628,773
    2010 VAP: 41% White, 39% Black, 13% Hispanic
    2008 Pres: 73/27 Obama

    Charlotte is booming even more than people expected, especially the area near "Uptown" ... so OSBM may have to revise their projections here.  But this area will become more Democratic and less white; it wouldn't surprise me if whites are near or below one-third of this district by 2020.

    5th District: Hopefully not Virginia Foxx
    2010 Population: 712,925
    2010 VAP: 87% White
    2008 Pres: 63/35 McCain

    Growth in Iredell and Forsyth; losses elsewhere.

    10th District: McHenry?
    2010 Population: 742,682
    2010 VAP: 82% White, 11% Black
    2008 Pres: 62/37 McCain

    The western part of the district, another big manufacturing area, will see population losses, while the eastern part of the district, near Charlotte, will see gains.  McHenry will probably still be here moving up the ranks in the House.

    11th District: Meadows?
    2010 Population: 707,836
    2010 VAP: 89% White
    2008 Pres: 53/46 McCain

    The rural counties in this district may continue to trend slightly towards the Republicans, but Asheville will trend Democratic so I don't think the district will move that much, politically.  Meadows could be in trouble in a district like this, as he has been one of the most conservative Republican House members during his first term.

    _______

    I might try to do another map like this featuring a Republican gerrymander, but that would be more difficult because far more counties would be split.

    •  So.. (0+ / 0-)

      five blue districts and only one semi-competitive district in NC-11?

      It's been established that the VRA districts do end up helping Democrats, but man-oh-man do those minority-majority districts look ripe for cracking that vote out to some of the more conservative parts.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 03:00:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Looks pretty good to me (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC, Setsuna Mudo

      Democrats have 6 solid seats and 2 more that might be competitive (if McIntyre came back).

      I drew one that didn't take into account 2020 populations, but here I'd swap Rockingham and Lee counties in the 4th and 6th, give the 5th Mitchell County in exchange for more of Rutherford, and have the 8th trade off Bladen and Columbus for Harnett and as much of the rest of Cumberland as it can. That would make the 8th less Democratic though still Lean D at worst, and it would make the 7th more competitive for a McIntyre comeback though still Republican leaning. The 11th would move an insignificant amount left, but I don't think Avery and Mitchell should be split (or really two separate counties, but that's another matter).

  •  Excited for AZ-Gov (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Jorge Harris, benamery21, JBraden

    DuVal seems to be a decent candidate and the AZ GOP seems to be eager to do stupid things that will cost them votes.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 03:13:47 PM PST

  •  IL-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Apparently, likely Republican nominee Bruce Rauner is a no-show for tonight's GOP primary debate in Champaign. It was reported a couple of days ago that Rauner had not yet accepted an invitation to the debate, and Jennifer Roscoe (a WCIA-TV news anchor who is one of several moderators of the debate) said on the 5 p.m. newscast on WCIA that "3 of the 4 (Republican) candidates" were going to participate in the debate, implying that Rauner will not be there.

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 03:21:36 PM PST

  •  VA-08: Looks like Beyer is the slight favorite (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian

    according to the Mount Vernon District Democratic Committee. Though he couldn't emerge with a decisive victory at an event he hosted at one of his car dealerships.

    The complete results of the straw poll are as follows: Former Lt. Gov. and Ambassador Don Beyer (25%); activist Lavern Chatman (20%); state Del. Patrick Hope (19%); state Del. Mark Sickles (12%); state Sen. Adam Ebbin (10%); state Del. Charniele Herring (3%); Alexandria Mayor Bill Euille (2%); state Del. Alfonso Lopez (2%); Professor Derek Hyra (2%); Mark Levine (2%); Bruce Shuttleworth (1%).
    http://atr.rollcall.com/...
  •  Oregon ballot measures (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, Gygaxian, gabjoh

    Gov. Kitzhaber announced today that he's brokered a deal to keep several from moving forward, including the measure that would've made the state essentially Right to Work for public employees, and others that would've raised corporate taxes.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 06:01:44 PM PST

  •  FL-13: Kind of worried here since we havent (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    seen many if any polls showing Sink ahead. Either Dem groups have polling showing her ahead and are being cautious about releasing their polling or maybe Jolly has the edge.

    Of course, the big caveat here being that specials are hard to poll.

  •  NY 11 - Grimm gets Independence Party endorsement. (0+ / 0-)

    http://politicker.com/...

    Of course the last time the Independence Party had an actual primary in Staten Island (for Titone's assembly seat) only 71 people bothered to vote.  I also believe the Lenora Fulani faction is in control of the Staten Island party now.  And the only reason anyone else is a member is because they registered by mistake thinking they were become an "Independent."

    But it matters because the Party if it lacks anything else has a ballot line and an appealing name.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:00:22 PM PST

  •  ny dkers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    anyone know the etymology behind brooklyn and why if their neighbor to the east is Queens County and accordingly called Kings, then why Kings County (coterminous with brooklyn) isn't called Kings?

    I also read that Staten Island decades ago used to be called Richmond and that the name "New York City" comes from the fact that until the late 19th century, New York County was all the city took in.

    formerly demographicarmageddon

    by bonzo925 on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 08:39:59 PM PST

    •  Not from NYC but here's what Wikipedia says (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nonsensoleum, Setsuna Mudo

      Brooklyn was an independent city that slowly expanded to include all of Kings County. Queens, on the other hand, was not a single municipality, but rather a collection of cities, towns, and rural land. Before 1898, New York City was simply Manhattan and parts of the Bronx.

      During the 1898 consolidation, Brooklyn, Staten Island, the eastern part of the Bronx, and the western part of Queens County joined NYC, while the eastern part of Queens County broke off and became Nassau County.

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Mon Mar 03, 2014 at 09:28:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Brooklyn is named after the dutch town Breukelen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Setsuna Mudo

      It was originally only one of 6 towns in Kings county, and became New York City's first suburb. It grew so fast it became a city in it's own right and started consolidating the surrounding towns into it. By the time of consolidation of Greater New York city, Kings county had one city left- Brooklyn. Most of the original towns still lend their names to neighborhoods though- Bushwick, Gravesend, and Flatbush.

      Can't help with Staten Island though, Richmond is still the official county name. It changed post-consolidation for some reason.

  •  WPost/ABC: Dems 46-45 in generic (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, jj32

    But trail 50-42 in states with senate elections.  Since California and New York don't have ones, not that surprising.

    Obama 46/ 50.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 02:48:45 AM PST

  •  CT Gov Q: Malloy and Foley tied at 42 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, abgin

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Mar 04, 2014 at 03:07:04 AM PST

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