Perhaps those claiming that the U.S. may one day be energy-independent will be proven right. Perhaps as tight oil production begins to wind down, other alternatives will be found in sufficient quantities (and at an affordable price) to make up the difference, and the U.S. economy will continue growing. Perhaps.
But we must soberly recognize that we are betting our entire national economic life on the hope -- indeed, the expectation -- that they are right. If the hoped-for outcome doesn't materialize, the consequence to the U.S. and global economies could be severe.
With so much at stake and with evidence growing that the assumptions of perpetual abundance might have been overdone, it is time to expand the public discussion of oil supply fundamentals and move away from basing national energy policy on feel-good headlines.
Didn’t see that coming! Who knew that telling a pleasant story wasn’t enough?
With all the talk orbiting the internet in recent months about the marvels of our technological advances and human ingenuity delivering up an abundance of all the fossil fuels we’ll need (at least in our lifetimes), it’s a disappointment to realize that those cheerleading efforts on the part of the fossil fuel industry and their anointed spokespeople do not qualify as the basis for energy policy. Damn! So close….
Apparently energy policy operates with a different set of rules. Just uttering a pleasing, reassuring collection of Happy Talk buzzwords does not obviate the need to substantiate the messages with those fact-things. Rapidly declining rates of production from more expensive fracked wells delivering inferior quality fossil fuels in ever-more-challenging locations while conventional crude oil fields continue along a path of producing less and less each year [finite resources being what they are]—just the highlights—apparently have to be part of any meaningful discussions about how to support our way of life.
Talk about sucking the air out of a room! This also means that offering up assurances that we’re “awash” with a vast abundance of ever-increasing reserve estimates is likewise not the beginning and the end of conversations about the adequacy of our future fossil fuel supplies. We’re probably gonna have to start explaining that while the impressive reserve totals are one thing, if it costs too much to extract, or if the investment funds sourced from rising prices suddenly make a U-turn, or if the technology is not quite up to the task, or geology or geopolitical considerations make the effort an energy-wash at best, then the impressive reserve numbers will be the only talking point left for the Right.
That sucks! We might have to start planning or something….
I guess the conclusion I offered in my last posting here at DK was true after all. Blind Faith remains a better rock group than strategy.
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