A Washington Post-ABC Poll finds that while more people trust Democrats to handle key issues, than Republicans, and even 2 out of 3 Americans believe the GOP is "out of touch," it appears that these perceptions do not directly affect their voting intentions for the 2014 House and Senate races.
The Post tells us their political handicappers "rate Republicans as favorites to maintain their House majority and say the GOP has a legitimate opportunity to gain the six seats it needs to take control of the Senate." What else can we say but "Seriously, America, WTF? (h/t Joan McCarter "Seriously, Florida. WTF?"
The Post-ABC survey affirms those projections, showing Republicans in a stronger position than Democrats in the states with Senate races this fall and more than holding their own in the battle for control of the House. In the 34 states with Senate races, 50 percent of voters say they favor Republicans and 42 percent favor Democrats.
That is the case despite the Republican Party’s poor image nationally and its deficit on some important issues. About two in three Americans say the GOP is out of touch “with the concerns of most people in the United States today.”
Perhaps, part of the problem is that respondents were "evenly divided on whether President Obama and the Democrats share the concerns of average Americans."
The poll shows broad dissatisfaction with Washington politicians. Just 22 percent say they are inclined to reelect their representatives in Congress. Almost seven in 10 Americans (68 percent) say they are inclined to look around for someone new this fall, the highest percentage recorded in a Post-ABC poll.
That does not mean the fall elections will mean defeat for significant numbers of House members, given the high reelection rates for incumbents and the polarized voting patterns of recent years. But it does underscore how little the public values their officeholders, whose historically low ratings have persisted.
President Obama's approval rating is still underwater, "with 46 percent saying they approve of the job he is doing and 50 percent disapproving, the same as in January."
The good news is that Democrats best Republicans on which party Americans trust to deal with the health issue, by a margin of 44 percent to 36 percent, with the same advantage holding on energy and immigration. We have a 13-point advantage on who best helps the middle class.
This poll finds 46 percent of registered voters plan to vote for House Democrats compared to 45% intending to vote for Republicans, however, due to gerrymandering, my understanding from previous election analysis is that we need about a 5% lead in national numbers to take back the House. Also, less than half of voters are expected to show up in an "off-cycle" election year, and I believe Democratic voter participation rates tend to fall more than the GOP's do.
36 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for a tea party candidate, while 16 percent saying they would be more likely. 41 percent said it would make no difference.
Support or opposition for ACA "health-care law" was a wash at 36 percent more favorable to supportive candidates , and 34 percent less so.
Surprisingly, This poll departs from others in showing that 38 percent will more less likely to vote for someone who favors a path to citizenship, while 30 percent would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports such a path.
This poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday, with a random sample of 1,002 adults, nationwide. including land lines. The sample error is plus or minus 3.5 percent.
"Seriously, Kossacks. WTF" are we going to do about this?
1:08 PM PT: Breaking! -- I just heard back from Joan McCarter on my proposal that she sub-license the right to use her "Seriously, XXXXXX, WTF?" Trademarked brand, for a mere 5% of related recs commission. I expect the ever diligent Daily Kos super-programming team is already setting up the appropriate code. So please check out my Seriously, Paul Ryan. WTF? Ryan wants to cut anti-poverty programs because poverty still exists. as the start of a new series, potentially as glorious as OND, WTFP, and Overnight News. Check back in 10 more years and see.
2:05 PM PT: Thanks to conspiracy and itskeven who point out that the Senate poll was from a different sample of just states where a Senate election is occurring, which includes more red states. So this poll on the Senate needs to be interpreted differently.