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8:14 AM PT: NH-Sen: In their first poll of the New Hampshire Senate race, Suffolk University finds Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen beating Scott Brown 52-39. That's the first poll in a very long time to find Shaheen over 50 against Brown. Those numbers seem a bit gaudy, but oddly, Suffolk's final New Hampshire polling in 2012 badly underestimated Democratic margins in both the presidential and gubernatorial contests.

8:57 AM PT: KS-Sen: You may recall that when conservative columnist Byron York tried to find out how many days GOP Sen. Pat Roberts had spent in Kansas lately, the campaign initially told him they'd provide the data but then reneged. This was a foolish move, because York managed to get his hands on the stats anyway (via an anonymous source), so Roberts gave up the opportunity to control the release of information. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered anyway, though, since the numbers do not look good for the senator:

Roberts was in Kansas for all or part of 65 days in 2012. The Senate was in session in Washington for 149 days, although that figure includes a number of days when there were so-called pro forma sessions when no business was done. But even counting all the pro forma days as work days, that leaves 151 days in 2012 when the Senate was not meeting and Roberts was not in Kansas, versus the 65 days Roberts was in his home state.
Including the pro forma days is very generous to Roberts, but even with those counted, he only spent 30 percent of his "free" time in his home state. And Roberts doesn't dispute the figures. Rather, he told York: "I don't measure my service in days. I try to measure it in results." The problem there is the word "I"—it doesn't matter what Roberts thinks. It matters what Republican primary voters think. Roberts may yet survive because his tea partying opponent, physician Milton Wolf, revealed himself as a ghoulish jackass, but all the accomplishments in the world don't matter if the folks voting for you think you're out of touch.

9:54 AM PT: TN-09: Just the other day, it occurred to me that for the first time in his career, Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, a white guy who represents a majority black congressional district, hadn't earned a primary challenge from an African American opponent. Evidently, I spoke to soon, because Roll Call says that wealthy attorney Ricky Wilkins, who is black, is planning to run against Cohen, according to a nameless source.

Starting with his first bid for re-election, Cohen has turned back every opponent he's faced by huge margins, though Wilkins can reportedly self-fund, and Cohen earned himself some unwanted attention last year regarding tweets involving a young woman he thought was a daughter he never knew (but later turned out not to be). Still, while perhaps a bit off-putting, this is hardly the stuff of scandal, and it doesn't seem like the outcome will be any different for Wilkins than it's been for all those who've come before him.

10:09 AM PT: Shaheen also crushes a variety of lesser-known GOP alternatives, taking around 52-53 percent in every matchup. And in a very hypothetical primary, Brown leads ex-Sen. Bob Smith 33-12, with everyone else barely registering.

Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan's numbers are even stronger. In her closest pairing, she leads Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (who, like Brown, hasn't actually said he's running) by a 53-28 spread. Everyone else trails by an even wider margin. Gatsas also leads in the (again, very hypothetical) GOP primary, but with just 15 percent; the rest are all in single digits.

10:56 AM PT: AZ-Sen: Sweet Enola Gay, son! Republican Sen. John McCain has earned the rare distinction of becoming the most unpopular senator in the nation, according to PPP. With a job approval score of 30-54, he's disliked by Democrats and Republicans alike. And if he seeks re-election in 2016 (he'd be 80 on Election Day), 2012 Senate nominee Rich Carmona and ex-Rep. Gabby Giffords would both tear him up like a Kleenex at a snot party: Giffords leads McCain 42-35, while Carmona sports a similar 41-35 edge. (Thirty-five! Wow!)

Ex-Gov. Janet Napolitano's long stint in DC, however, has poisoned her image with voters: Her favorability rating has sunk to 36-52 and she actually trails McCain 44-36. With numbers like that, though, there's little chance of her being the Democratic nominee. And with McCain's numbers the way they are, you almost have to think Democrats would be better off facing him rather than vying for an open seat, though of course, we're a long way from 2016.

11:14 AM PT: NY-Gov: Despite a seemingly sharp drop in his approval rating according to Marist, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo still crushes his newly announced Republican challenger, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino. Marist unfortunately uses the misleading excellent/good/fair/poor rubric, so it now looks like Cuomo has a "negative" rating of 42-56, down from 52-44 in November. He almost certainly isn't under water, though, since 38 percent give him "fair" marks (the option that makes this system so troublesome) while only 18 percent rate his work as "poor." And the fact that Cuomo's punishing 65-25 edge over Astorino is virtually unchanged from his 65-23 advantage last year is further proof.

11:21 AM PT: NY-04: A bit unexpectedly, Democrats will have a primary in New York's 4th Congressional District after all. Nassau County Legislator Kevan Abrahams had been exploring a bid for a little while, but it seemed unlikely to go anywhere after the Democratic establishment (including retiring Rep. Carolyn McCarthy and the DCCC) rallied around Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice. But Abrahams has decided to make a go of it regardless. Rice has greater name recognition and will almost certainly have more money, though, so she's the favorite for the nomination, and Democrats likewise remain favored to retain this seat.

11:31 AM PT: AZ-09: In an entirely transparent bit of trolling, the NRCC is running a new radio ad and robocalls attacking Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema over Obamacare. This is obviously a "you can expect more of this if you seek re-election in the 9th District" signal, since Republicans would very much like to see Sinema switch over to the safely blue 7th instead. It's a good object lesson for Sinema, though: If the GOP wants you to do something, you should probably do the opposite.

11:41 AM PT: ID-02: Rep. Paul Ryan has endorsed fellow Rep. Mike Simpson for re-election, and while this move may have more to do with Ryan trying to bet on a winner in order to further his presidential ambitions, but Simpson certainly benefits as well. Ryan still has a lot of cred with movement conservatives, and Simpson is busy fending off a pesky challenge from attorney Bryan Smith, who has the backing of the Club for Growth and is trying to present himself as the purer alternative.

11:52 AM PT: NY-21: Oy vey. When you're starting off as an unknown candidate whose roots seem to be tied more to Brooklyn than the North Country, the last thing you want is to help foster a media narrative that you're "elusive"—which is exactly the word a new NPR story uses to describe Democratic filmmaker Aaron Woolf right off the bat. The worst part is that Woolf doesn't dispute the characterization but claims that his "relative invisibility in the press has not been inaction" because he's been "on the road ... talking to people."

Interacting with voters is an important part of any campaign, of course, but modern politics requires a minimal level of walk-and-chew-gum ability, so there's no good reason why Woolf hasn't conducted any interviews yet. He also doesn't even have a firm date yet for his official campaign kickoff. To be fair, plenty of first-time candidates struggle initially, and many eventually find their footing. But this is not an auspicious start for Woolf, and time is finite.

12:58 PM PT: NY State Senate: New York Democrats just scored a strong recruit for a key Republican state Senate seat on Long Island. Nassau County Legislator Dave Denenberg, who briefly ran against Rep. Peter King in 2008 but had to step aside due to health issues, will run in the 8th District, which was left vacant at the end of last year when GOP Sen. Charles Fuschillo resigned. The 8th went for Obama by a 56-43 margin, which is actually pretty red by Senate district standards, but Democrats will have a good shot at a pickup here. Republicans don't yet have a candidate, but two possibilities include Nassau County Legislator Michael Venditto and Assemblyman Joseph Saladino.

1:04 PM PT: It also doesn't help that Woolf told the Adirondack Daily Enterprise last month that he wouldn't answer questions because he's a "press release kind of guy."

1:17 PM PT: PA-Gov: A strange new poll from Robert Morris University (nope, can't say I'd heard of them before) finds businessman Tom Wolf with a huge lead in the Democratic primary, but the full survey, which was conducted entirely online, only canvassed "501 Pennsylvania adults"—not even registered voters, apparently—so the sample of "likely Democratic voters" must have been very small indeed. The write-up also refers to state Treasurer Rob McCord as "Bob" McCord. There were no general election matchups.

1:27 PM PT: AZ-09: After all that, Sinema's staying put.

1:58 PM PT: AR-Sen: The conservative American Action Network is set to launch a $1 million ad campaign going after three Democratic senators and six Democratic congressmembers over cuts to Medicare Advantage due to the Affordable Care Act. Half will get targeted on TV (though the spots are not yet available): Sens. Mark Pryor (AR), Mary Landrieu (LA), and Kay Hagan (NC), and Reps. Rick Nolan (MN-08) and Nick Rahall (WV-03). The rest—Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Joe Garcia (FL-26), John Tierney (MA-06), and Tim Bishop (NY-01)—will only face online advertising. The exact spending breakdowns are available at the link.

2:31 PM PT: IL-13: Here's that ad from Democrat George Gollin we heard about a little while ago. The spot, backed by a reported $48,000 buy, starts off with an announcer saying "This formula has failed us," as a hand quickly scrawls a few slogans on a whiteboard about how the tea party and Washington both suck. She goes on to describe Gollin as a "principled progressive who always takes a clear stand," then follows with a list of his priorities (for increasing the minimum wage, against repealing health care reform, etc.).

2:34 PM PT: TX-04: GOP Rep. Ralph Hall just got a boost in his quest to hang on to his House seat, as tea partier Lou Gigliotti, who finished third with 16 percent in Tuesday's primary, has endorsed him for the May 27 runoff. In the second round, Hall faces former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe, whom he led 45-29 on primary night.

2:44 PM PT: NC-Sen: Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis has a new TV ad, an introductory biographical spot in which he says he worked his way up from paperboy to partner at IBM, despite skipping college to work and only earning his degree later in life. Tillis says that his "story's not special—in America, it happens all the time," which is certainly a myth we like to tell ourselves. But, he adds, "the trainwreck in Washington puts all that at risk." It's a very non-partisan ad for a guy who has to win a GOP primary first. Tillis claims he's spending $1.1 million to air the ad, which is a large sum for a single spot, but oddly, he's skipping the state's two biggest media markets,  Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham.

2:59 PM PT: FL-13: The DCCC has tossed one final (?) ad into the mix in the Florida special election, featuring a pair of seniors who castigate Republican David Jolly over his plans for Medicare and Social Security. A woman (who sounds remarkably like actress Linda Hunt) starts off: "Here's what bothers me: David Jolly lobbied for those that want to privatize Social Security." A man then takes over, as the pair watches a clip of Jolly on a laptop saying, "Social Security is not guaranteed"—a line Tyler Yeargain predicted would inevitably make its way into a D-Trip ad as soon as Jolly got done saying it.

3:12 PM PT: VA-10: Republican Navy vet Howie Lind is reportedly airing a TV ad, though his campaign is refusing to say how big the buy is—and given how expensive the Northern Virginia media market is, it's certainly not going to reach many eyeballs. But those few who do glimpse will hear a narrator intone that "Barack Obama is destroying America, but too many Republicans are more worried about the media than our country." I guess that counts as a rank insult, since what right-thinking conservative would ever care what the filthy lamestream media ever thinks, right?

Lind's sniping is likely aimed at the GOP frontrunner, Del. Barbara Comstock, but she's probably pleased Lind is running this ad. That's because Lind is only likely to split the true believer vote with Del. Bob Marshall, making life easier for Comstock ahead of the April 26 firehouse primary.

3:27 PM PT: IL-Gov: With less than two weeks to go before the GOP primary and trailing badly in the polls, state Sen. Kirk Dillard and his allies are finally making a desperate dive for the goal line. Dillard's own TV spot (his first) almost reflects that desperation, cramming a million different issues into 30 seconds (fighting tax hikes, cutting spending, getting endorsed by teachers, jobs jobs jobs).

Meanwhile, a group called the Fund for Progress & Jobs (which is actually funded by unions—yeah, Illinois politics can be weird) is spending $700,000 to run its own pro-Dillard ad. This one is a bit less frenetic but it still covers a lot of ground, mostly the same stuff as in Dillard's own ad.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:00:15 AM PST

  •  nice listing of the paths to victory (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Skaje

       for Tim Donnelly in CA-Gov...

    Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

    by Zack from the SFV on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:24:46 AM PST

  •  Time to increase the size of the house (7+ / 0-)

    says Sean Trende.

    Good idea, but if they increase the size of the House, the only way I'd go for it would be if fair redistricting was part of the package.

    •  I'm not sure I see all the virtues in a large (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, Christopher Walker

      legislature that he finds. Look at New Hampshire. Is it any better off for have 3 representatives per resident?

    •  I agree with a lot of his reasonings except (6+ / 0-)
      Second, increasing the size of the House could diminish the impact of gerrymandering.
      When I tried drawing the country according to the amendment (no district greater than 50k people), and did it according to how the map for each state was drawn in 2011 or how it would have been, although I didn't get to finish the last few states, I was ending up with about the current divide in the house. It wasn't that much harder to gerrymander.

      "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

      by James Allen on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:07:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've done some work on the other side... (0+ / 0-)

        ....making the house smaller, and it also didn't seem to change the divide in the house by much.

        Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

        by Bart Ender on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:11:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's why we need fair redistricting attached. (4+ / 0-)

        Our House reps as they are now often represent wildly different constituencies. We need to shrink their districts so they can more accurately represent local needs and draw those districts to reflect communities and not loosely interconnected webs of ideology.

      •  Yeah (6+ / 0-)

        It's just as easy to gerrymander the 100-member Virginia state House as it is to gerrymander the 11-member VA congressional delegation.  Increasing the size of the House, even by a  factor of 10, will not end gerrymandering.

        It also disgusts me how casually he disregards the impact of gerrymandering:

        While the commonly voiced concerns about the evils of gerrymandering are overstated, they aren’t entirely without basis. Moreover, the perception of impropriety is important, and there’s something inherently untoward surrounding legislators drawing districts that resemble Rorschach inkblots rather than compact units that draw together communities of interest.
        Perception of impropriety?  Inherently untoward?  Those are not the soft terms of mild disapproval I'd use for a horrifically gerrymandered state like North Carolina.  13 districts, and by Obama percentage they go: 79, 72, 71, 44, 43, 42, 41, 41, 41, 41, 40, 40, 38.  Look close, see if you can spot the pattern.  "Democrats are more naturally clustered" my ass.  If they were, the three Dem vote sinks wouldn't be tentacled monstrosities reaching all across the state to grab every single Democrat they can find from disparate areas.

        I simply do not understand how, after all this time, experts still think gerrymandering is just worth a few seats at the edges.  Have they not seen competing Pennsylvania maps that alternately go 13-5 Dem or 13-5 GOP?  That's 8 seats that can be flipped right there, in a single state.

  •  The nitty-gritty of PA elections (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, ProgMD, Christopher Walker, bythesea

    As candidates are filing their nominating petitions (they're due Tuesday), the Dept of State is posting them online along with Statements of Financial Interests.  Congress needs 1000, State Senate 500, State Rep 300.  Gov needs 2000 (incl. 10 counties w/100 each), Lt-Gov needs 1000 (incl. 5 counties w/100 each). These initial filings can be supplemented up until Tuesday at 5pm.

  •  NH-Sen (15+ / 0-)

    Suffolk finds a potential Scott Brown candidacy going belly-up. Senator Shaheen ahead 52-39.

    http://bostonherald.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:05:14 AM PST

    •  Was the PPP poll from January off? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      I was looking up some polling just to make a joke, and then I find some PPP results that show him down only 3. Not that I think he'd win regardless, for any number of reasons, but the PPP result is surprising, assuming it's not completely whacked, which it might be.

      The Herald poll seems more believable.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:23:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't trust PPP right now. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, wadingo

        Their new methodology is untested, so I would take their results with a grain of salt until after the midterms.  They should have never taken the anti-PPP bait given to them last year.

        •  PPP has been one of the best pollsters for years (0+ / 0-)

          They've had a couple of clunkers (the South Carolina House race) and I think their New Hampshire results may have shown the race closer than it is. But I would never write them off or take their results with a grain of salt. For all we know, they were right about New Hampshire.

          I hope we are not getting to a point on DKE where any pollster that contains bad news for the Democrats is getting written off. That means that David Nir is going to have to start headlining Rasmussen, since they have had some of the best polls for Democrats so far in 2014.

      •  I think so (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, TofG, wadingo, markhanna, JBraden

        What Suffolk is saying now is about where I always thought NH-Sen would end up if Brown challenged Shaheen.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:27:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  One more reason to be confident (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer

          about Shaheen is that she tested herself against a possible Brown run earlier this year. It's probably a standard move for people like her, but regardless, she doesn't look like she'll be caught napping if things take a turn for the worse. Good to see.

          http://www.politico.com/...

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:32:20 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It would take a serious Republican wave (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, TofG, wadingo

          For this race to even be competitive. And that still wouldn't guarantee a Brown win. I think these numbers are pretty close to where the race is as well, and likely will be come fall.

          This is why Brown doesn't pull the trigger, despite the pleas of the RSCC.

          •  Yeah, I agree. (0+ / 0-)

            I was just surprised by that result.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:20:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  They had another more recent (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, KingofSpades, itskevin

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:32:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA SD-28 Cat fud alert (4+ / 0-)

    What should be a boring special election in a safely red York County seat is getting interesting with the launch of a write-in campaign by conservative businessman Scott Wagner, who owns a waste disposal company.  Rep. Ron Miller was chosen by the local party as their nominee (no primary in special elections) and should have an easy path to victory, but Wagner has started buying ad time to attack Miller and push for voters to write him in.  

    For his part, Miller has taken this seriously enough to attack back at Wagner, including a very interesting attack related to that judge's race between former Rep. Todd Platts and someone more conservative supported by Wagner.  

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    •  This could be big. Demcrats need to gain 2 seats (0+ / 0-)

      for a 25-25 state senate split, with lt. gov. the deciding vote.

      •  Doubtful (0+ / 0-)

        The seat is up anyway this year and even if the two conservatives split the vote just right for the Dem to win, there's no way she holds it in a general election, so it'll flip back in November.  Linda Small, our candidate, seems fine but there's nothing Demosaur about the area and the seat was something like R+10ish last year. Winning would put us at 25-25 until then but the LG is still a Republican so they would hold it.  

  •  The digest is currently displaying an example (5+ / 0-)

    of what is left of my four month-old beard this morning.

    http://www.slate.com/...

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:46:12 AM PST

  •  TN-09: Cohen is getting primaryed by a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    prominent, self funding African-American Attorney

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

    by BlueSasha on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:02:02 AM PST

  •  O'Malley Watch: Shipping Off to Boston (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    O'Malley is going to headline the Massachusetts Dems awards ceremony in May.

    Offered without comment, just as an FYI.

  •  Submitted for your consideration: 2 ex. of GOP (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, bythesea

    electoral cynicism:
    1) The Turtle brandishes a rifle at CPAC (gotta keep voting gun nuts happy)
    2) Corbett using federal energy aid to be a humanitarian by preventing food stamp cuts. A plus action, and interestingly different from the McConnell approach, since Corbett seems to be trying (not for the first time this year) to appeal eo Pa. moderates/independents. It might work against conservadem Wolf, but I doubt it will against other Democratic candidates.

    •  Since you brought up CPAC... (9+ / 0-)

      Here's a fun little quiz for the group. Tell me which of these panels at CPAC is real:

      1. Is My Gun Big Enough? #CPACPanels

      2. Bigger Hoax: Climate Change or the Female Orgasm? #CPACPanels

      3. If Foreplay Gay? #CPACPanels

      4. Slavery Gets a Bad Rap #CPACPanels

      5. How to Read a Teleprompter Joke Off a Teleprompter #CPACPanels

      6. F*cking Magnets, How Do They Work? Is the Science Settled? #CPACPanels

      7. Steve King Describes the Anatomy of an Illegal #CPACPanels

      8. How to Win Any Argument With an Atheist by Assuring Him He's Going to Hell #CPACPanels

      9. "Lincoln Was a Republican!" and Other Things to Say as You're Trying to Stop Black People from Voting #CPACPanels

      10. What's a Whitewater, a Filegate & a Paula Jones and Other Things You'll Need to Scream About if Hillary Clinton Runs in 2016 #CPACPanels

      11. How to Give Ted Cruz Money #CPACPanels

      12. Do We Like Marco Rubio Today? #CPACPanels

      13. Healthcare After ObamaCare: A Practical Guide for Living When No One Has Insurance and America Runs Out of Doctors.' #CPACPanels

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:33:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-Gov Corbett: "Let them eat...food" (8+ / 0-)

    In a surprising move, Corbett does the end-around the food stamp cuts by increasing heating assistance, like a few other states (NY, CT, etc.), though is the first Republican Guv to do so I believe.

    Probably a bit late to become a "governor that cares about the poor" considering his cuts to education in oh-so-many poor parts of the state, but a good outcome regardless of the motivation.

    http://www.philly.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:22:43 AM PST

  •  SC-7, 2012 (0+ / 0-)

    Remember Ted Vick?  Assuming he'd had no scandal, how close could he have come?  Tinubu got 45% or so.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:36:19 AM PST

  •  Congratulations (14+ / 0-)

    to Hardin County, the only one which thinks Steve Stockman is a better GOP choice than John Cornyn.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:36:50 AM PST

  •  Marriage Equality in Colorado, Bennet, and Udall (6+ / 0-)

    Today one of Bennet's emails, on behalf of Udall, mentioned marriage equality and asked readers to stand with them demanding full equality. I can't say I am completely surprised, as Colorado isn't Missouri or Arkansas, but (a) what a difference 5-10 years makes and (b) what a nice contrast this will be to Gardner, who I believe still opposes same sex marriage, despite how much he tried to avoid talking about it in 2010. Between that and abortion, which Bennet was able to use quite effectively in 2010, it should be helpful to bring out socially liberal voters in the fall.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:01:12 AM PST

  •  KY-Gov: Crit Luallen vetting fundraising, ad firms (6+ / 0-)

    likely for a Gubernatorial run: http://mycn2.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:03:28 AM PST

    •  Someone enlighten me then (0+ / 0-)

      on why there is talk of Conway running for Gov?  It was from my understanding Conway and Luallen are tight and seems unlikely they'd run against each other.

      •  True, but friends still can disagree. (0+ / 0-)

        I'd say though, that he could be her running mate (he's still pretty young) and he could run for Gov. in the future.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:49:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •   (0+ / 0-)

      on why there is talk of Conway running for Gov?  It was from my understanding Conway and Luallen are tight and seems unlikely they'd run against each other.

  •  AZ 2016 PPP (10+ / 0-)

    Hillary Clinton narrowly trails Jeb Bush (45/44), but leads Chris Christie (44/41), Rand Paul (46/43), and Mike Huckabee (47/41).

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:03:38 AM PST

    •  Whoa, McCain at 30/54 approval (7+ / 0-)

      WTF is going on?  It seems to be coming from disenchanted Republicans.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:06:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Arizona Numbers (4+ / 0-)

      McCain's numbers are appalling when you look at the crosstabs. He does better among very liberal voters than he does against very conservative voters. Among very liberal voters, McCain has a 24-63 approval rating (which is decent enough). Among very conservative voters, McCain has a 19-74 approval rating. It's hard to read too much into any single poll, but if these numbers are anywhere close to accurate, it's a near certainty that this is McCain's last term. There's no way he could survive a primary with those kinds of numbers, and I don't know how he could hope to turn things around from that bad of a position in just two years. I think it's most likely that he'll just retire.

      Flake has his own problems with a 27-47 approval rating. This seems to be a clear case where the background checks bill has done lasting damage to a political figure. Whether or not Flake will remain this damaged five years from now is an entirely different issue, but he's pretty weak at the moment. He has a 20-50 rating among self-described moderates, and is barely treading water among very conservative voters with a 43-40 rating. If these numbers hold up, it's possible Flake could face a tough primary challenge in addition to a tough general election.

      Napolitano is probably done with politics in Arizona because of her 36-52 favorability rating. This is predominantly because she only breaks even (42-43) among moderates and is loathed by somewhat conservatives (11-78). She'd need at least a majority of the former and the high 20s of the latter to have a chance at getting elected statewide again. At this point, we've built up enough of a bench that we probably don't need her anymore.

      Giffords at least has the favorability rating necessary for a statewide run. She has the base locked down, pulls a 58-19 rating among moderates, and even pulls a 29-43 rating among somewhat conservatives. She starts from a position of strength, and while her negatives would probably go up in a negative campaign, Republicans can't go too negative against her for fear of backlash. The biggest questions are whether or not she would be able to meet the physical demands of a campaign and whether or not she feels that's the best way to use her time in advocating for particular policies. Even if she declines a Senate campaign (which she apparently considered in 2012), we have several other strong options like Carmona (whose 24-23 favorability rating isn't too shabby).

      Arpaio's 48-43 favorability rating is disgusting. Even if it's only sustained by somewhat and very conservative voters, that just speaks to where the state sits at the moment.

      •  Napolitano (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo, Christopher Walker

        doesn't even live in Arizona anymore. She is the head of the UC system here in California after all. If she did for some reason decided to run in 2016 she'd be Bob Kerrey 2.0.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 11:42:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Napolitano isn't as far removed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          from the state and office as Kerrey was; by the time he ran again in Nebraska in 2012 he had been in NY academia for over a decade.

          But her acceptance of the California position is probably an indicator she doesn't intend to run for elected office again, and that's not a crippling loss since as noted she's not our only potentially electable Arizona candidate.  There are other Democrats who might actually be stronger electorally, as her DHS service would definitely be a target for criticism (not all of it fair) and leaving for CA doesn't help either.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 11:57:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  The first real overperformance by Jeb Bush (0+ / 0-)

      In pretty much every other poll he's right there in the pack with Paul, Huckabee, Ryan, etc.  First one where he actually demonstrates some strength.

      But man I can't believe Arizona is such a tough nut to crack.  Gore and Nader held Bush to only 51% in 2000.  Even Kerry managed 44%.  8 years later...and Obama gets 44%.  Seeing how much Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and California shifted, I just don't understand why Arizona is so stubbornly red.

      •  I think it's because Bush is (0+ / 0-)

        not in the news for any of the nonsense the other guys are quoted for and because, even if it looks promising to us, it's still center-right, even if independently so. Aside from perhaps Georgia, I think it's definitely the most likely target  in 2016 out of the states that Obama didn't win once. I fully expect our nominee to compete there, unless it's looking like a defensive cycle for us.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:25:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  His background maybe? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        Jeb speaks fluent Spanish and his wife is originally from Mexico.  He's also Catholic.  In a general election I would imagine his regions of strength relative to GOP alternatives would be in the southwest and maybe Florida.

        Of course those points are likely drawbacks for him in a GOP primary.  Conservatives will hate him when it comes to immigration.

      •  Yeah, I don't get Arizona. (0+ / 0-)

        It's one of the ten most urban states in the country. The only other top-10 state that's republican is Utah, and that's for obvious reasons.

        And it's not in the South. Non-southern, not-especially-Mormon, heavily urban... Every other state that fits that description is strongly Democratic. Plus it has a decently large minority population. Like, how is it that Arizona is more republican than super-rural, super-white Iowa?

        •  Demographics don't mean everything (0+ / 0-)

          Like I keep telling people, demographics are useful, but not absolute. Vermont, for instance, is 95% white and overwhelmingly rural/small towns. By all rights, it should make Oklahoma look like Massachusetts. Suffice it to say that it doesn't.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 03:47:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, in a sense demographics ARE everything... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Darth Jeff

            insofar as voting tendencies can nearly always be understood as a function of identity, cultural background, and so on. (Perhaps the history of particular state parties is a factor as well, but I think it's very much a fading one nearly everywhere: see, e.g., Vermont, Arkansas, et al.)

            The question is just how deep our understanding of the demographics is. For instance, just looking at race, religion, urban/rural, and regional demographics isn't sufficient to account for Arizona. And that's precisely why I "don't get" it.

            But that just means there's some deeper explanation that ought to account for it. James Allen, for instance, mentions a history of Confederate sympathies. That's demographics, too. And indeed, maybe that's a part of it - maybe it was settled largely by southerners such that, despite its decidedly non-southern religious characteristics, it has certain latent southern influences. But then, as jnnca points out, it's the Sunbeltiest of Sunbelt states - most folks are fairly new arrivals. So who knows... Maybe it has something to do with the state's economic profile. I don't know. But I do think there must be some good theory to explain it...

            •  probably retirees more than anything (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, jncca, Chachy

              AZ draws in conservative retirees in much greater numbers than the other southwestern states do. The counties that have really drifted to the right are the same ones that have been filling up with retirees: Gila, La Paz, and especially Yavapai and Mohave.

              Also, I think Obama did unusually poorly there because he sued the state over SB 1070 and because he didn't campaign there in either 2008 or 2012. If McCain hadn't run in 2008 I think Obama would have made an effort there and probably come close to winning, and some of the residual effect (volunteers, etc) may have carried over into 2012.

              The state appears to be drifting left below the federal level. A few years ago the state senate was 21R-9D. Now it's 17R-13D.

              SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 04:44:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Interesting points. But the SB 1070 thing (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                seems like more of a correlation than a cause. I.e., why is there such strong anti-immigrant sentiment in AZ, compared to, say, New Mexico, or even Texas?

                •  Is there? (0+ / 0-)

                  New Mexico is blue enough that the hard right on immigration Republicans can't win.  But what about their caucus in the legislature?  I have no idea.

                  Texas Republicans made a specific choice to court Hispanics beginning in the 1990s.  I'm not sure why they chose to and Arizona Republicans didn't, but the history is different.

                  21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                  by jncca on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:00:05 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  not in the South but had Confederate sympathizers (0+ / 0-)

          apparently. My hometown is named for a general who lost a notable battle in the campaign there.

          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

          by James Allen on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 03:52:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not really relevant anymore, though (0+ / 0-)

            In 1940 maybe a bunch of Arizonans were descended from Confederate sympathizers but with the population boom it's people from all over.  I really think immigration is the answer.  I'd like to see a poll of Arizona on how they feel about the Senate immigration bill.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 03:57:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  AZ (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              CF of Aus

              Having lived there for 5 years, the southern cultural influence is negligible. If Phoenix has anything like a dominant culture, it's sort of a mix of SoCal and midwestern with a little Mormon and Old West mixed in.

              SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 04:48:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  AZ (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701

                I grew up there, and am 3rd gen AZ.  Agree that there is basically no significant Southern influence.  Arizona is historically Mormon, old Hispanic with ongoing Mexican ties, and rural Western (ranchers and miners, many of both were ethnic white), with a side of Indian and Indian suppression.  That was very easy to see until the 1980's (Think Udall, Goldwater, Babbitt, Raul Castro) and is now almost totally swamped out by suburban/exurban white-bread culture via massive immigration from other states (with a competing side of ongoing Mexican immigration, which lags from a political influence standpoint).  There was massive family immigration (not just snowbirds and retirees) from the Rust Belt (70's and 80's), particularly Chicago and Detroit, followed more recently by massive immigration from SoCal in the 90's and 2000's (mostly white conservatives).  The most conservative districts, are the districts where the lowest proportion of the population was born in the state.  AZ-04 (with a high population in Vegas centric areas) is about 3/4ths born out-of-state.  The districts which are closest in character to old AZ are AZ-01, AZ-02 (diluted by conservative retirees in Tucson exurbs), and AZ-03.  The 5 Phoenix area seats reflect housing patterns which have historical roots, but self-sorted new arrivals make up the bulk of population.

                Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                by benamery21 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:30:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  KS-Sen - I wonder if its possible... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Avedee, jj32, wadingo

    Someone else will get in the race against Roberts on the Republican side. I thought someone posted the filing deadline wasn't until June.

  •  Paul Ryan: poor kids better off going hungry (15+ / 0-)

    than to get a free meal through a government program.

    Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Ryan said Republicans offer their cosntituents "ideas" while Democrats offer a "full stomach and an empty soul."

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:46:59 AM PST

    •  ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, JBraden

      I'm beginning to really despise this guy on a personal level. Like a lot.

      I thought about typing out some profanity-laced response about what a dick he is and how his reputation as some sort of ideas man is entirely underserved, to say the least, but I'll simply say that if I ever saw him in person, I'd probably have to walk in the other direction. Otherwise, I might spit right in his face.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:52:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Reminds me of a quote from a video game (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, wadingo, bythesea

      in an alternate future dystopia:

      Our minds are born festering with sin. Some are so blighted, they will never find redemption. The mind must be pulled up from the roots. My children are without blame, without fault -- and without choice. For what is the value of will when the spirit is found wanting?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:57:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bioshock Infinite was awesome (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Gygaxian, wadingo

        One of the last triumphs of the current (or I guess previous, now) generation of games.  I loved how subtle some of the satire is...people focused on the racism apparent in the "utopia", but that's easy.  The real satire was the fact that the society also worshiped a cult of the Founding Fathers, treated the Declaration of Independence like a holy relic, etc.  That one hits a little closer to home.

        •  Yep (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          they worshiped Jefferson, Washington, and Franklin as God-inspired prophets and saw Lincoln as an antichrist for declaring war on the South for wanting to invoke their "right" to secede under the provisions of the Declaration of Independence.  They even have statues of John Wilkes Booth.

          Personally, I loved the Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings much more for its political narratives and parables (e.g. royal politics, elves and dwarves either choosing to assimilate in the dominant human society or go to the wilderness to resist as terrorist bands).  Made in Poland and based on a series of books by a Polish author, you see Cold War politics going on with the empire of Nilfgaard.  They are an advanced, but autocratic society that have conflicted with the northern kingdoms over land rights and have, since their creation, absorbed a number of fiefdoms as satellite nations with some autonomy, but ultimately bow to the will of the emperor and his emissaries.  They're scheming and devious, but not evil per se as they view that uniting the whole continent under the banner of the empire will render war irrelevant, give universal free trade, and end the petty squabbling between the northern kingdoms.  The Nilfgaardians, however, consider themselves superior to the people of their satellite nations and are massively over-represented in imperial government like the Russians were with the USSR.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:47:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The emperor will play a role in the 3rd game (0+ / 0-)

            and be voice-acted by Charles Dance!

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:51:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I liked 1 & 2 better (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          The failure of Randism is a great jumping off point for a dystopic alternate past.

    •  I'd rather have a full stomach (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Le Champignon, gabjoh

      I'm okay if my soul remains empty. I think that's a good way of keeping it in line, make sure it doesn't wander off and become a poltergeist somewhere.

    •  Shockingly, the story might not be quite right (0+ / 0-)

      link

      It's from a 2011 book, about a porr kid who is reacting to someone making lunch for them. Doesnt have anything to do with food stamps or free school lunch.

  •  2016: Sanders leaves the door open (4+ / 0-)

    to run as a Democrat:

    The more radical approach would be to run as an independent, and essentially when you're doing that you're not just running for president of the United States, you're running to build a new political movement in America - which presumably would lead to other candidates running outside of the Democratic Party, essentially starting a third party. . . .

    If you look back to (Ralph) Nader's candidacy (in 2000), the hope of Nader was not just that he might be elected president but that he would create a strong third party. Nader was a very strong candidate, very smart, very articulate. But the strong third-party did not emerge. The fact is that is very difficult to do.

    http://www.thenation.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:08:52 AM PST

    •  If he does run as an indy.. (7+ / 0-)

      I'll lose all respect for him. Nader was, and is, a disgrace to his cause, and the blood of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis is on his hands. If Bernie wants to make a statement and create a movement, then run as a Democrat and lose gracefully in the primary while having his ideas get the attention they deserve. That's what Howard Dean did in 2004, and it's possible that it laid the groundwork for the Obama candidacy in 2008. I'm not particularly hopeful that we'll keep the presidency in 2024 (assuming we still have it), given that five terms of uninterrupted control of the White House is extremely difficult to do; but maybe his ideas will push the electorate to the left, forcing the Republicans to move leftward to compete.

      Funny that there's a similar precedent for that, in Eisenhower. Truman's economic policies were very liberal, and Eisenhower came out as the Republican who would keep the New Deal rather than attack it. If an Eisenhower ran in 2024, I'd be tempted to vote for him.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:28:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It seems pretty simple to me, really. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jorge Harris, Gygaxian, wadingo, gabjoh

        Off the top of my head, I don't know what he has to poll at to get into the debates, but I think it's in the single digits, which he'd certainly get despite not being a threat to HRC if she runs, nor anyone else that has a chance. So he'll be up there on state, forcing them to debate him and respond to his views directly. He can probably force HRC or anyone else to the left, even just a little, without doing much of anything to damage them in the fall.

        Am I missing something?

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:34:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Which is why it makes little sense to run (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, bjssp, wadingo

      as a third party candidate.

      You already have a fairly liberal major party, and by running a strong campaign as a Dem, you could have influence over the party platform and direction.

      Run as a third party candidate, and fairly or not, you get blamed for being a spoiler.

    •  I honestly hope he runs as a Dem (10+ / 0-)

      He could at least pull a Howard Dean and pull the conversation to the left a bit, and not risk Naderizing the election.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:47:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, wadingo

        I'm perfectly fine with having a solid liberal running in the Dem primary, if nothing else to get the progressive message out there.  So long as he doesn't try to run as an independent that is.

        •  Even better, if he could popularize IRV (0+ / 0-)

          Instant-runoff voting, that is. That would open up the possibility for a genuine third party that wouldn't hand the election over to the Republicans. Bernie would be even greater than he already is if he could do that.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 11:51:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I feel like the problem with third parties (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wadingo, jncca

      is many of them build themselves around a cult of personality.

      The appeal of the Reform Party was limited to Ross Perot. The appeal of the Libertarian Party is limited to Ron Paul. The appeal of the Green Party was limited to Ralph Nader. They have strong showings but no other candidate can capitalize on that momentum. It's trickle-down politics and like the economic theory it doesn't work very well.

      A real third party movement would need to start way down in the weeds. You can't think 40% of the voting populace is going to suddenly change their voting habits to vote for Jon Huntsman.

    •  I'd strongly support Sanders on one conditition (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      That condition being that he'd run for president as a Democrat.

      I absolutely despise the two-party system (in fact, I view it as undemocratic), but the way that the vast majority of elections are set up in this country effectively encourages a two-party system in this country.

      If we had closed primaries and/or conventions for all partisan races in this country, we'd probably have a three-party system either similar to Canada's (two left-wing parties and one right-wing party) or a mirror image of it (two right-wing parties and one left-wing party)

      If Sanders ran as an independent, he'd probably get 5-7% of the vote and do nothing but hand the election to the Republican nominee.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:38:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gotta love this graphic (14+ / 0-)

    From a new Washington Post - ABC News poll

  •  NH Senate passes private option medicaid expansion (11+ / 0-)

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:55:05 AM PST

  •  CA-35: EMILY's List endorsed Norma Torres. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Of course it was completely expected.

    http://www.scpr.org/...

    •  Are Emily's List endorsements ever unexpected? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen N
    •  Yeah, she should be a shoo-in (0+ / 0-)

      EMILY's List is quick on those types of endorsements.

      Ya know, it's interesting they haven't endorsed Donna Mercado Kim yet, who has been running for HI-01 for months now, and some news sources seem to think is the frontrunner.  Kim is pro-choice, though anti-gay and also conservative on other issues.

      EMILY's List's silence is interesting.  I hope it continues in HI-01.

      •  I thought she wasn't pro-choice? (0+ / 0-)
        •  I thought she wasn't (0+ / 0-)

          But some commenters were saying she used to work for Planned Parenthood (and one would assume a pro-lifer wouldn't be comfortable there), and a google search turned up a number of websites that mention that.  1, 2, and 3 for instance, though they might all just be copying each other.  I don't know the truth since she doesn't mention it on her campaign website...in fact she doesn't mention anything meaningful on her campaign website.

          I just heard some people speculating that EMILY's List might endorse her, but they haven't yet.  I felt like if they were going to, they would have already.

          If she truly is pro-choice and a nominal frontrunner in a contested primary (and the only woman running), it would be nothing short of historic for EMILY's List to decline to endorse her.  And I think we'd all know why.  Maybe EMILY's List learned something from the Nikki Tinker debacle.

  •  AZ-Senate: How on earth is McCain so unpopular? (0+ / 0-)

    I thought McCain was an institution in Arizona, even at the height of the tea party reaction in 2010.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 11:19:57 AM PST

  •  Like the headline here (5+ / 0-)

    Bob Beauprez enters governor's race to dismay of some rivals.

    From former state sen. Mike Kopp: "Bob is welcome to join the race, but we've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well."

    From state sen. Greg Brophy: "Beauprez's entry into the race kind of brings to a head the question: Are we going to try to re-brand our party as the fiscally responsible live-and-let live party, or are we going to go back to the party of the mid-2000s?  This does strike me as a vanity campaign."

    Tom Tancredo said he told Beauprez last year he would step aside if Beauprez wanted to run for governor, but Beauprez kept saying he wasn't interested until it was too late.

    If anything, this hurts SoS Scott Gessler the most who has been trying to be the consensus anti-Tancredo choice.  Beauprez basically destroys any chance he had of being the nominee.

    What a clusterf*ck this race is turning into.  In addition to the above 5 candidates, there's also a couple random businesspeople running.  Tancredo might win the nomination with like 30% of the primary vote.

    •  "Too late" is right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      I don't know how Beauprez should suddenly be a top tier candidate now when he not only lost by a landslide 8 years ago, but hasn't held or sought elected or appointed office since.  His most recent applicable credentials seem to be his 2003-06 service in Congress which is not likely to inspire voters.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 12:04:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ukraine aid vote. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian, LordMike, wadingo, ehstronghold

    23 Republicans opposed.
    All Dems in favor.  

    Libertarian wing: Amash, Bentivolio, Campbell, Duncan, Massie, Rohrabacher.

    The others are a bit strange.  Gingrey voted yes, but Broun and Kingston voted no.  Some of the usual suspects (Tom Graves, Gohmert, Mulvaney, Sanford, Stockman, Weber, Westmoreland, Yoho) were also no.

    Then the weird ones: DesJarlais, Don Young, Sam Graves, Tim Griffin, Vance McAllister, Tom Rice, Tom Rooney.  Not sure what the arguments against are from a non-libertarian perspective but interesting to see that not all the Republicans worry about "standing up to Putin."  Or they just figure nobody will notice the vote, which may be true as well.  But I thought it was an interesting vote.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 12:25:00 PM PST

  •  WA SD-30: 7-term former Dem. Rep to run as an R (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA, jncca

    Ex-State Rep. Mark Miloscia, a staunch social conservative who's decidedly left of center fiscally (91% lifetime rating from the Washington Labor Council, a believer in a minimum wage increase, and an opposer of workers-compensation reforms), is running against 4-term State Sen. Tracey Eide. Senator Eide, who won re-election by 4.26% in 2010, is definitely at least potentially vulnerable. Miloscia, on paper, is a good recruit for Republicans. This South King County district is the type of district where such a Republican could be a fine fit, unlike much of suburban Seattle. Having Miloscia and Sen. Steve Litzow (a former board member of the Washington branch of NARAL and the first GOP proponent of SSM in the WA legislature) in the same Senate GOP Conference meetings would be downright strange.

    http://www.thenewstribune.com/...

    From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

    by IllinoyedR on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 12:31:00 PM PST

  •  2016 Rass: Clinton 47 Bush 33 (12+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 12:31:46 PM PST

  •  PA-Gov: Poll? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, VClib

    If I tell you that the pollster hasn't polled a PA election before (as far as I know) and used an "online survey instrument" to poll 501 Pennsylvanians during a full week, yet is still releasing results including the first decimal point, including for the Dem primary sub-sample, are you still interested?

  •  OR-04: DeFazio on retirement (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian, wadingo, uclabruin18, GloFish
    The interview's out now and here's the 66-year-old's best line:

        “If I could devote my whole life to craft beer I’d think about retiring, maybe. That’s a hint, anybody out there listening.”

    link

    Doesn't sound like anytime soon.

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 12:56:38 PM PST

  •  Sabato article on reapportionment 1960-2010 (4+ / 0-)

    Pretty good one about the change in seats by state between 1960-2010 of the House.

    Biggest gainers:

    CA, FL +15 seats
    TX +13
    AZ +6
    GA +4
    WA, NV, CO +3

    Biggest losers:

    NY -14
    PA -9
    OH -8
    IL -6
    MI -5
    IA, MA, NJ -3

    Regional Changes:

    West +33
    South +28
    Northeast -30
    Midwest -31

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/...

  •  UT-Leg: House Minority Leader Jen Seelig retiring (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jorge Harris, bythesea

    Link.

    Somewhat surprising; there was no indication that she was going to retire, and even though her seat is safe, it's a bit problematic that she's announcing her retirement so late (March 20th is the deadline).

    She says that she wants to complete her PHD, which is reasonable, but come on, being House Minority Leader in Utah is probably really demoralizing.

    In any case, I have no idea who will replace Seelig, but her district is 47% Hispanic, so her successor will probably be a Latino, and judging from the UT Dems recruitment of women candidates, probably a woman. Seelig was fairly progressive, but had to water down a lot of her bills to have them pass, and talked like a moderate.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 01:07:00 PM PST

  •  Sinema stays put (21+ / 0-)

    Thankfully Sinema is sticking with running in AZ-09, according to her facebook. I was an early supporter, so I'm glad to see she's sticking where she is. I'd support a move to the Senate, but not blatant district shopping. I have far less respect for reps who aren't willing to fight the tough fight and leave us hanging in order to fight for a safe general election seat(one reason I am a big fan of Upendra Chivukula).

    •  district hopping (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      I could support it in the other direction, for example Pat Murphy going for the swingy FL18 if he had been the incumbent in the much safer FL22.  

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 01:43:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Redistricting also happened (0+ / 0-)

        and a Republican left the 18th open to save West.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 02:12:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  IIRC, Murphy made it clear (0+ / 0-)

        early on that his primary motivation was to defeat West, not to win a safe seat.

        Plus, I doubt he would have beaten Frankel in FL-22, given her longtime ties to West Palm Beach.  But I'm no expert on Florida politics.

        Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

        by JBraden on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 06:49:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I forgot that about Chivukula (0+ / 0-)

      Now-Rep. Patrick Murphy, too -- he considered running in FL-22, but decided to stick with the tougher race and ended up winning.

      Rep. Jim Costa, on the other hand... shakes fist

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:32:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY State senate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ehstronghold, ArkDem14

    considering that Obama got 51% in Suffolk and 53% in Nassau, and that Republicans tried to gerrymander a clean sweep across both counties, 56% Obama has gotta be one of, if not the most Democratic of them.

  •  North Korea parliamentary "election" in 3 days (10+ / 0-)

    The Wire has an interesting piece on how their "elections" are carried out.  Voting is mandatory with each voter having one pre-selected representative to vote for.  Any dissenting votes must be placed in a separate ballot box, and dissenting of course means you and your entire family are most likely sent off the Gulag.  The 687 member elected body is nothing more than a rubber stamp parliament that rarely ever meets.  

    http://www.thewire.com/...

  •  Indiana SD-29- Howey analyzes the race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Howey looks at how competitive SD-29 is with Sen. Mike Delph (R-Carmel) who has been rather controversial lately. The Dem candidate is J.D. Ford, who while he is not an A list recruit is certainly a good candidate. The seat is Republican but not strongly so. Howey says the baseline GOP number here is about 55%, but Romney won it by less than a thousand votes, and Glenda Ritz and Joe Donnelly won their races. Ford needs to raise some money though, but I could see the Indianapolis-centric Dem Party spend some real money here if they see polling in their favor, and you would hope that the Ford campaign would try to bring in some of the Freedom Indiana volunteers to help him out too. Howey rates the race as Likely Delph, but says it has potential.

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 04:31:12 PM PST

  •  Anyone impressed by Gillibrand lately? (10+ / 0-)

    Even though her bill failed she pulled an impressive coalition of Senators together to vote for her bill it's a feat to get Ted Cruz and Rand Paul to sign on to anything not to mention David Vitter as well. A shame she couldn't be Hillary VP.

    •  I've been a big fan of Sen. Gillibrand... (5+ / 0-)

      For a long time. She's awesome. Not to start off a 2016 discussion, but if Hillary Clinton doesn't run for whatever reason, she and Gov. O'Malley are at the very top of my list (with no one else who is likely to run coming particularly close). More realistically, I'd like to see her in Senate leadership someday.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:30:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, she is great (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorge Harris

      Cant be a VP for Hillary, but definitely a rising star.

      Given her age, I could definitely see her running for president or being on the VP short list if Hillary doesnt run or after a Clinton presidency. If not that, I think she will definitely be a committee chair, or in Senate leadership.  

    •  A Frustrating Vote (8+ / 0-)

      All of our incumbent Senators up for election this year voted in favor of the bill except for Warner and Reed. I was glad to see all of our vulnerable incumbents on board, especially Pryor. It's particularly frustrating because we had more than enough Republican votes to overcome a filibuster (we had Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell!), but we had too many Democratic defectors. I'm incredibly frustrated that McCaskill went to these lengths to stop this bill.

      With regard to Gillibrand, I've been impressed. Between the James Zadroga Act and this bill, she's shown that she's determined to do good work and that she can do very well despite being a junior Senator with little seniority. Even if she never ends up in the White House (as President, cabinet secretary, or otherwise), I'm sure she's going to be a presence in politics for a long time to come. It's quite possible she could become a liberal lion of the Senate. Let's give her 30 or 40 years and see how she turns out. :P

  •  AZ-9: She wouldn't have won the primary in the 7th (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, JBraden

    Despite the 9th being less Democratic than her state senate seat, she's more of a better fit for the 9th, as I believe some of her old senate district overlapped. Besides, she wouldn't have gotten a lot of establishment support for the move, since it would have left Democrats without a candidate in the 9th.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 05:04:12 PM PST

    •  probably (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      She might have won the primary in the 7th on name rec if the other candidates split too many different ways. It's for the best that she's staying in the 9th. I think David Schapira could win it, but Sinema has already shown that she can win it.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 08:14:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also, don't underestimate the power of money (0+ / 0-)

        She'd have had a huge CoH advantage over primary opponents.  All-in-all I'm glad she didn't go for the switch.  I'm tempted to continue to believe that she was never interested in the seat for herself, just angling for influence.  We'll see what happens with endorsements, etc in the next few days.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Fri Mar 07, 2014 at 12:20:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-GOV: Kirk Dillard helping out (10+ / 0-)

    Quinn, intentionally or not, with some of his comments at last night's debate.

    But Dillard, who is looking to use union support to establish himself as the alternative to wealthy front-running candidate Bruce Rauner, lashed back at his rivals. The state senator from Hinsdale likened electing Rauner as governor to “putting a rat in charge of the cheese.”

    link.

  •  Jobs & Progress brief backstory (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, gabjoh

    Dillard opposed the recently passed pension reform plan. That makes huge cuts to state pensions. Quite a few Republicans did, actually (since it's basically unconstitutional [the Illinois constitution forbids reducing pensions. The bill tries to weasel around that by making effective cuts by not having adequate increases for inflation. We'll see what the courts say.])

    Rauner on the other hand, opposed it because it didn't go far enough. Brady supports the bill.

    Most of the public sector unions are still behind Quinn, but the powerful Teacher's Union is behind Dillard. Progress & Jobs is basically a front for the Teacher's Union.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:00:16 PM PST

  •  3 legislative deaths to report (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/...

    1980s Speaker of the Arizona House Joe Lane died.  He apparently lost his primary due to his presiding over Mecham's impeachment (Arizona Republicans have always been crazy).

    http://www.timesdispatch.com/...

    Former VA St Sen. Benjamin Lambert, a Black Dem from Richmond who endorsed George Allen in 2006 and then lost his primary, has also died.

    http://cumberlink.com/...

    Finally, former PA St Sen Hal Mowrey, from Cumberland County, has died as well.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 06:02:16 PM PST

    •  North Carolina sitting Democratic state senator (5+ / 0-)

      Martin Nesbitt also died today. He represented SD-49 in Asheville and will be replaced by a Democrat selected by the local party for the safe seat. Nesbitt had just stepped down as minority leader due to his battle with stomach cancer.

    •  Joe Lane (0+ / 0-)

      must have had an uber-conservative district; I can't believe that anyone was said to see Mecham out of office, much less angry enough about it to primary out someone in House leadership.  

      •  Probably so (0+ / 0-)

        maybe the right-wing felt Meacham was getting scapegoated.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 07:56:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ev Mecham was incredibly unpopular in AZ (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, ProgMD

          Enough so that most children knew who he was as a punchline.  It got so bad you felt sorry for him.

          There was a three-pronged effort to remove him (public pressure to resign, recall campaign, and impeachment)
          More people signed the recall petition than the total who voted in his election on both sides.  Recent ex-Senator, and AZ institution, Barry Goldwater, newly elected Senator McCain, Congresssman Jon Kyl, and a dozen GOP state legislators all publicly called for him to resign.  

          Joe Lane (a middle-aged rancher at the time) was elected and served 10 years from a rural, heavily Democratic (2-1 registration advantage), and heavily Mormon SE AZ district that had been solidly Democratic prior to his election in 1978.  "district including most of Cochise County and portions of Graham and Greenlee counties that had been largely represented by Democrats for years."  

          http://azstarnet.com/...

          It was Lane's bad luck that Mecham's minority support was part of Lane's base.  Because it wasn't a Republican district '88 was the only time Lane faced a serious primary.  He had served as a moderate in order to keep the Dem vote.

          http://news.google.com/...

          Mecham stumped for at least 3 of the other candidates (from both parties) running for the 2 seats in district 8.  I would bet he also put significant money into the district.  It was a direct political hit on Lane.  The other seat was vacant as the Dem incumbent had advanced to the Senate.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 09:17:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What's the current iteration of his district? (0+ / 0-)

            I recall reading that Meachem was so f'ed up, he turned AZ into a laughingstock.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:18:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That area is split between (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              AZ-01 and AZ-02 in the U.S. House and between LD14 (GOP Senator, 2 GOP reps) and LD07 (Dem Senator and 2 Dem Reps) in the state legislatures.  It's closer to AZ-02 and LD14.  I would say it is a lean GOP area these days.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:50:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  WI-7 (0+ / 0-)

    This is a race that I would like to see polled (there hasn't been any polling in WI-7 as of yet), however, Kelly Westlund claimed that several Republicans showed up at her campaign event in Spooner.

    I don't know if Westlund is projecting strength (if she is, she's doing it quite effectively) or if she's actually a more formidable candidate than even I think she is. Simply put, she'd need to win over more than a few Walker voters in order to defeat Sean Duffy, and I don't think that she or any other Democrat can do that (WI-7 has been trending away from Dems, especially since 2010).

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Mar 06, 2014 at 10:10:33 PM PST

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