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Net racial change since 1990
Net racial change since 1990

If you've been around for a few decades' worth of presidential elections, you probably have a strong sense of which parts of the country are trending toward or away from the two political parties. California has gone from swing state to blue state; Virginia has gone from red state to swing state; Tennessee has gone from swing state to red state; West Virginia didn't even bother to pause at swing state en route to switching from blue state to red state.

But why would that happen, in a country with nationalized campaigns, run mostly on nationwide media? Shouldn't the swing from election to election, from place to place, be pretty uniform? Well, no: The population of each state, and the characteristics of the people living there, constantly change. And knowing that different categories of people—whether it's based on race, or education, or religion, or marital status—are considerably more likely to vote a particular way, then it stands to reason that as the mix of people changes from place to place, so too will the way that place votes.

Several weeks ago, I wrote a post based around an interactive map that looked at how the presidential vote had changed at the county level over the last two decades, not in terms of percentage change like usual, but in terms of the raw number of votes. This showed how the changing geographical pattern of votes—huge numeric gains for the Democrats in the nation's most populous counties, while smaller gains for the Republicans were spread out across the nation's rural and exurban areas—is a huge boost for Democrats' chances in presidential elections but also (thanks to the increased consolidation of more and more Democrats in fewer and fewer places) makes control of the House more difficult.

While it looked cool, I later realized that it was missing an important component: the "why" aspect, explaining who moved into or out of those various places (or, just as importantly, aged into the electorate or died out of it). It occurred to me that I could use the exact same method, looking at the net change in, say, white residents versus non-white residents, or college-educated residents versus non-college-educated residents, over the same two-decade period. Most likely, it would show that the places that had tremendous growth in non-white residents or college-educated residents would be the same places that showed tremendous growth in Democratic votes. Did it? Follow over the fold to find out ...

The short answer is, yes, of course it did—although much more noticeably so with race than it did with education. The first map that we'll look at, right below, looks at these changes in racial composition. The counties that show up in blue are the ones where the gain in non-white residents between the 1990 and 2010 censuses outstripped the gain in white residents, while the counties that show up in red are the ones where the gain in white residents in that 20-year period outstripped the gain in non-white residents.

It's an interactive map, so you can mouse over the map to see the data associated with each county; you can also pan and zoom around the map to get a better look. As you look around, you may notice that Los Angeles County, California, has by far the largest net gain, at 2,736,499 people. (As well it should, considering that it's also by far the nation's most populous county, larger than most states.)

What exactly does that number mean, though? Let's break the process down. In 1990, Los Angeles Co. had 8,863,164 people; that had grown to 9,818,605 in 2010, for a total gain of 955,441. The number of whites (or, more accurately, non-Hispanic whites) in 1990 was 3,618,850, but that actually fell by 2010, to 2,728,321: a decrease of 890,529.

There were 5,244,314 non-white residents in 1990—broken down further to 934,776 African-Americans, 29,159 Native Americans, 907,810 Asians, 21,327 people who checked "some other" but not Hispanic, and 3,351,242 Hispanics of any race. By 2010, the number of non-white residents had grown to 7,090,284 (broken down into 815,086 African-Americans, 18,886 Native Americans, 1,325,671 Asians, 22,464 Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders, 25,367 "some others," 194,921 people checking 2 or more races, and 4,687,889 Hispanics of any race—and yes, they did add categories during that twenty-year period). That's an increase in non-white residents of 1,845,970. The final step, though, is to net them against each other: usually that'd be a subtraction problem, but since the white change is a negative number, the net is even bigger than the non-white gain: a net of 2,736,499 in favor of non-white residents.

So, does that match the net gain in Democratic votes that I calculated a few weeks ago? Yes, it does; Los Angeles Co. was also the biggest gainer there, too. In the period between 1988 and 2012, it gained 845k Democratic votes and lost 354k GOP votes, for a Democratic net of 1,198,934. Obviously that's less than the net gain in non-white residents, but bear in mind that the pool of voters is much smaller than the pool of residents; many of those new non-white residents are under 18, some of those residents aren't citizens, and any rate, you need to factor in the multitudes of adult citizens who still can't be bothered to vote.

Here are the 25 largest net gains in non-white residents:

County Descrip. Total
popu.
change
White
change
Non-white
change
Net change
Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles + 955,441 - 890,529 + 1,845,970 + 2,736,499
Harris, TX Houston + 1,274,260 - 178,467 + 1,452,727 +1,631,194
Cook, IL Chicago + 89,608 - 637,276 + 726,884 + 1,364,610
Dallas, TX Dallas + 515,329 - 330,403 + 845,732 + 1,176,315
Orange, CA LA area + 599,676 - 226,002 + 825,678 + 1,051,680
San Bernardino, CA LA area + 616,830 - 184,515 + 801,345 + 985,860
Miami-Dade, FL Miami + 559,341 - 202,056 + 761,397 + 963,453
Queens, NY Queens + 279,124 - 320,830 + 599,954 + 920,784
San Diego, CA San Diego + 597,297 - 133,234 + 730,531 + 863,765
Broward, FL Ft. Lauderdale + 492,578 - 179,528 + 672,106 + 851,634
Riverside, CA LA area + 1,019,228 + 114,928 + 904,300 + 789,372
Santa Clara, CA San Jose + 284,065 - 242,965 + 527,030 + 769,995
Alameda, CA Oakland + 231,089 - 165,458 + 396,547 + 562,005
Maricopa, AZ Phoenix + 1,695,016 + 602,979 + 1,092,037 + 489,058
Bexar, TX San Antonio + 529,379 + 22,974 + 506,405 + 483,431
Prince George's, MD DC area + 134,512 - 174,237 + 308,389 + 482,626
Tarrant, TX Ft. Worth + 638,931 + 79,863 + 559,068 + 479,205
Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia - 59,571 - 263,254 + 203,683 + 466,937
Clark, NV Las Vegas + 1,209,810 + 377,080 + 832,730 + 455,650
Sacramento, CA Sacramento + 377,569 - 34,766 + 412,335 + 447,101
King, WA Seattle + 423,930 - 3,890 + 427,820 + 431,710
Nassau, NY Long Isl. + 52,184 - 186,594 + 238,778 + 425,372
Bronx, NY Bronx + 181,319 - 121,294 + 302,613 + 423,907
Orange, FL Orlando + 468,465 + 30,210 + 438,255 + 408,045
Hidalgo, TX McAllen + 391,224 + 6,294 + 384,930 + 378,636

If you refer to the table of the 25 counties with the largest Dem gains, there's a lot of overlap. Fifteen counties show up on both lists. In fact, for the most part, this list overlaps with a simple list of the nation's most populous counties (indicating both the sheer size of the overall national non-white gain, but also how concentrated that gain is in a few very populous places).

Of the 38 counties that had a million or more people in the 2010 census, 23 of them are on the list above. (The only two with less than a million residents that made the cut are Prince George's County, Maryland, a suburb of Washington, DC, that has transitioned from in the last few decades from a mixed population to being mostly black, and Hidalgo County, Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, which was mostly Hispanic even in 1990 but has added almost exclusively only new Hispanic residents.)

One other detail that might leap out at you is that in a majority of these counties, the number of white residents actually dropped from 1990 to 2010; in other words, more left or died in that period than were born or moved in. Without digging much deeper into Census data it isn't clear how much of that is natural decrease and how much of that is white flight (or for that matter, how much is white flight to the county next door and how much is to a totally different part of the country). In a few cases, like Philadelphia or Chicago's Cook County, the overall population barely changed at all, and the net gains are largely based on white subtraction.

Now let's look at the 25 largest net gains in white residents:

County Descrip. Total
popu.
change
White
change
Non-white
change
Net
change
Douglas, CO Denver area + 225,074 + 185,981 + 39,123 - 146,828
Utah, UT Provo + 252,974 + 185,652 + 67,322 - 118,330
Ada, ID Boise + 186,590 + 144,212 + 42,378 - 101,834
Hamilton, IN Indpls. area + 165,633 + 131,124 + 34,509 - 96,615
Washington, DC Washington - 5,177 + 43,333 - 48,510 - 91,483
St. Charles, MO St. Louis area + 147,578 + 117,373 + 30,205 - 87,168
Delaware, OH Columbus area + 107,285 + 89,299 + 17,986 - 71,313
St. Johns, FL St. Augustine + 106,210 + 88,202 + 18,008 - 70,194
Williamson, TN Nashville area + 102,161 + 84,250 + 17,911 - 66,339
Clark, WA Vancouver + 187,310 + 126,241 + 61,069 - 65,172
Forsyth, GA Atlanta area + 131,428 + 97,686 + 33,742 - 63,944
Warren, OH Cincinnati area + 98,784 + 79,181 + 19,603 - 59,578
Davis, UT SLC area + 118,538 + 88,851 + 29,687 - 59,164
Horry, SC Myrtle Beach + 125,238 + 91,812 + 33,426 - 58,386
Montgomery, TX Houston area + 273,545 + 165,175 + 108,370 - 56,805
Larimer, CO Ft. Collins + 113,494 + 83,834 + 29,660 - 54,174
Livingston, MI Detroit area + 65,322 + 59,686 + 5,636 - 54,050
Washington, UT St. George + 89,555 + 71,617 + 17,938 - 53,679
Baldwin, AL Mobile area + 83,985 + 68,400 + 15,585 - 52,815
Deschutes, OR Bend + 82,775 + 67,167 + 15,608 - 51,559
Kootenai, ID Coeur d'Alene + 68,699 + 59,737 + 8,962 - 50,775
Cherokee, GA Atlanta area + 124,412 + 87,353 + 36,789 - 50,564
Placer, CA Sacramento area + 175,636 + 112,693 + 62,943 - 49,750
Yavapai, AZ Prescott + 103,319 + 74,577 + 28,742 - 45,835
Union, NC Charlotte area + 117,081 + 80,474 + 36,607 - 43,867

Again, you'll notice a number of overlaps with the parallel list of counties with the biggest net gains in Republican votes. For instance, the number-two county gainer here, Utah County, Utah (the location of Provo, and of Brigham Young Univ.), was also the one with the largest net gain in GOP votes. Some of the nation's most archetypal exurban communities—counties located 20 or 30 miles away from large cities that had small populations in 1990 and had filled with new middle-class subdivision development by 2010—show up in both lists, too, like Montgomery Co., Texas, Douglas Co., Colorado, and Williamson Co., Tennessee.

There is also a number of western counties here, on the list of biggest net gains for white residents, that didn't make the cut for the list for biggest GOP gains; the common thread tying them together is their reputation as destinations for people white-flighting it out of southern California (not all of whom are conservative, though these still tend to be pretty red-leaning places). That includes Boise, Idaho, and Placer County in Sacramento's exurbs (which has picked up rapidly-diversifying Orange County's mantle as California's conservative stronghold) in particular, but also places further afield like Bend, Oregon, Prescott, Arizona, and northern Idaho's Panhandle. It also includes, surprisingly, politically swingy Clark County across the river from Portland, Oregon, where the white growth is a mix of California refugees, Oregonians seeking an income-tax-free haven, and evangelical Protestant Russian immigrants.

Finally, there's one entry on the list that stands out like a sore thumb: one of the bluest jurisdictions in the country, Washington, DC. This one is pure gentrification; the population of Washington stayed basically flat over the two decades, but one-tenth of the city's population turned over in that period, with whites replacing non-whites. (Scroll down to the table below showing net gains in college-educated persons, and note how the numbers very closely match.) Interestingly, Washington managed to get even bluer during this same period, with Michael Dukakis getting 83 percent in 1988, while Barack Obama got 91 percent here in 2012.

There's one other important similarity between the list of biggest white gainers and biggest GOP gainers: These are counties at the periphery of the nation's metropolitan areas, or, in some cases, medium-sized towns that stand alone. In addition, these are much smaller counties, population-wise, than the non-white/Dem gainers. It's not as lopsided; while only about 900 of the nation's 3,000-plus counties had a net gain in Democratic votes, over half of the nation's counties had a net non-white gain. The much larger numbers in the non-white table mirror how growth in non-whites, nationwide, far outstripped white growth. The nation's white population grew from 188,123,888 to 196,817,522 from 1990 to 2010, a gain of 8,693,664, while the nation's non-white population grew from 60,578,936 to 111,928,016, a gain of 51,349,050. That's a net non-white gain of 42,655,386!

Now, let's look at a totally different variable, the change in levels of education. Here's the interactive map, with the same color scheme, although here, the blue counties are the ones with a net gain in college-educated residents, and the red counties are the ones with a net gain in residents without a college degree (though, as I'll discuss shortly, the red and blue can be a little misleading in some places; education doesn't correlate as strongly with voting behavior as race):

This is done according to the same procedure: Find the change, from 1990 to 2010, in the number of persons over age 25 with a four-year degree or better. Then find the change in the number of persons over age 25 without a bachelor's degree, and, finally, find the net difference between the two. To start, here's the list of the counties with the biggest net gain in college-educated residents:

County Descrip. Total popu.
above 25
change
Bachelor's
or more
change
Non-bach.
change
Net change
Cook, IL Chicago + 121,906 + 381,887 - 259,981 + 641,868
Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles + 786,899 + 593,164 + 193,735 + 399,429
New York, NY Manhattan + 71,443 + 202,775 - 131,332 + 334,107
Kings, NY Brooklyn + 155,311 + 222,609 - 67,298 + 289,907
Middlesex, MA Cambridge + 77,882 + 169,731 - 91,489 + 260,860
Wayne, MI Detroit - 117,298 + 63,578 - 180,876 + 244,454
Allegheny, PA Pittsburgh - 70,485 + 82,272 - 152,757 + 235,029
Santa Clara, CA San Jose + 187,067 + 208,296 - 21,229 + 229,525
King, WA Seattle + 281,763 + 253,327 +28,436 + 224,891
Nassau, NY Long Isl. + 23,408 + 106,240 - 82,832 + 189,072
Cuyahoga, OH Cleveland - 62,612 + 58,690 - 121,302 + 179,992
Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia - 59,262 + 58,067 - 117,329 + 175,396
San Francisco, CA San Francisco + 72,548 + 123,878 - 51,330 + 175,208
Queens, NY Queens + 177,400 + 172,226 + 5,174 + 167,052
Alameda, CA Oakland + 156,656 + 159,390 - 2,734 + 162,124
Hennepin, MN Minneapolis + 76,342 + 118,966 - 42,624 + 161,590
Oakland, MI Detroit area + 105,167 + 131,047 - 25,880 + 156,927
San Diego, CA San Diego + 388,443 + 268,964 + 119,479 + 149,485
Bergen, NJ NYC area + 41,647 + 93,108 - 51,461 + 144,569
Orange, CA LA area + 401,795 + 268,784 + 133,011 + 135,773
Washington, DC Washington - 9,674 + 60,228 - 69,902 + 130,130
St. Louis, MO St. Louis area + 13,048 + 70,149 - 57,101 + 127,250
Baltimore city, MD Baltimore - 68,771 + 28,672 - 97,443 + 126,115
Fulton, GA Atlanta + 164,106 + 144,741 + 19,365 + 125,376
Fairfax, VA DC area + 169,359 + 147,168 + 22,191 + 124,977

Again, you'll see a lot of the same familiar faces here, the nation's most populous counties, the ones containing the nation's major cities and economic engines. In fact, this table may say more about the nation's economy—and the "Two Americas"-ification that's going on—than it does about its politics. While college-educated persons used to be more evenly distributed throughout the country, they're clustering increasingly in the metropolitan areas, where, not coincidentally, the well-paying jobs that need an advanced education increasingly are. Factor in the multiplier effect, and you've got the recipe for metropolitan areas further increasing their economic hegemony, while the corresponding "brain drain" exacerbates the isolation of rural areas.

One striking detail about the table of biggest gains in college-educated residents is that in many of the counties, the number of adult residents without college degrees actually fell from 1990 to 2010. As you'd expect, that's the case in Rust Belt cities that had a strong manufacturing reputation, and where the older blue-collar workers have died or retired elsewhere and many of the younger ones have sought out better employment opportunities elsewhere. At the same time, those same places, despite their overall population loss, have still managed to gain college-educated population; you'd expect that in, say, Pittsburgh, which has become a research hub in a number of high-tech areas, but it's even happening in the allegedly-wrecked Detroit area too, which should give us some hope it might re-imagine itself along Pittsburgh's lines too.

But that decline in non-college-educated residents is also happening in places without a once-strong manufacturing base. It's happening in places like Manhattan and San Francisco that are expensive enough that a college diploma is something of a minimum ticket to entry if one wants to afford to live there. It's even happening in places like Minneapolis and Philadelphia that don't fit in either the glittering financial center or post-industrial hellscape archetypes.

Finally, let's look at the list of the top 25 counties for net gains in residents without college degrees:

County Descrip. Total popu.
above 25
change
Bachelor's
or more
change
Non-bach.
change
Net change
Clark, NV Las Vegas + 755,542 + 202,073 + 553,469 - 351,396
Maricopa, AZ Phoenix + 1,031,385 + 392,403 + 638,982 - 246,579
Riverside, CA LA area + 559,709 + 157,706 + 402,003 - 244,297
Harris, TX Houston + 721,013 + 238,599 + 482,414 - 243,815
San Bernardino, CA LA area + 356,585 + 94,000 + 262,585 - 168,585
Hidalgo, TX McAllen + 201,643 + 37,568 + 164,075 - 126,507
Kern, CA Bakersfield + 156,959 + 27,540 + 129,419 - 101,879
Dallas, TX Dallas + 284,377 + 98,728 + 185,649 - 86,921
Tarrant, TX Ft. Worth + 360,375 + 138,280 + 222,095 - 83,815
Pinal, AZ Phoenix area + 145,962 + 33,037 + 112,925 - 79,888
Bexar, TX San Antonio + 310,117 + 118,201 + 191,916 - 73,715
Fresno, CA Fresno + 143,622 + 38,923 + 104,699 - 65,776
Lee, FL Ft. Myers + 193,899 + 67,894 + 126,005 - 58,111
Gwinnett, GA Atlanta area + 264,547 + 103,964 + 160,583 - 56,619
Mohave, AZ Kingman + 77,081 + 10,304 + 66,777 - 56,473
Polk, FL Lakeland + 126,103 + 36,542 + 89,561 - 53,019
Cameron, TX Brownsville + 83,606 + 15,751 + 67,855 - 52,104
Marion, FL Ocala + 101,961 + 25,013 + 76,948 - 51,935
Osceola, FL Orlando area + 94,402 + 22,213 + 72,189 - 49,976
El Paso, TX El Paso + 123,054 + 36,935 + 86,119 - 49,184
San Joaquin, CA Stockton + 113,809 + 32,390 + 81,419 - 49,029
Tulare, CA Visalia + 65,158 + 10,496 + 54,662 - 44,166
St. Lucie, FL Ft. Pierce + 83,349 + 19,867 + 63,482 - 43,615
Stanislaus, CA Modesto + 86,370 + 21,381 + 64,989 - 43,608
Lake, FL Orlando area + 99,702 + 28,618 + 71,084 - 42,466

This table—unlike the list of the counties with the largest net gains in white residents—has no overlap at all with the list of the biggest net gains in GOP votes. Instead, these counties are mostly politically swingy, though in many of them there's enough variation in performance between presidential and non-presidential elections that they're characterized by a lot of falloff in off years. There are a few (like Hidalgo Co. and El Paso Co. in Texas) that are so heavily Hispanic that they are solidly blue, and some of the counties in Florida are white enough that they're still pretty solidly in the GOP column.

These counties are entirely in the Sun Belt states, spanning from California to Florida, but there are two different trends at work here. One is counties where there has been a lot of Hispanic growth, not just in California but in Texas and Arizona as well. Some of these counties have moved pretty sharply in the Democratic direction (especially Clark Co., Nevada, which contains 2/3s of that state's population and is almost single-handedly responsible for Nevada's shift to blue-tinted swing state). Others, though—thanks to the combination of many Hispanics either not being citizens or not having aged into the electorate, and low turnout even among adult citizens—we're going to be waiting a decade or more before we start seeing many dividends. (In particular, that applies to the counties in Texas.)

The other trend is growth in downscale retirement areas, primarily in Florida (though perhaps also describing Mohave Co., Arizona, where the retirement destination of Lake Havasu City is). Unlike tonier Florida destinations like Naples or Sarasota or Palm Beach (which tend to attract more affluent northeastern Yankee or Jewish retirees), the counties on this table tend to attract a more blue-collar Midwestern retiree base, who are less likely to have college degrees (partly because they were more likely to have had manufacturing jobs, but also in large part simply because college wasn't as commonplace a thing to do back in the mid-20th century as it is now).

The one county here that doesn't fit easily in either category is Gwinnett County, Georgia, the suburbs to the northeast of Atlanta. This was a middle-class white area when it was first developed (back when it was Newt Gingrich's home turf when he served in the House), but it's one of the most rapidly diversifying places in the country as its white residents decamp for exurbs further north, and they're replaced by an interesting mix of African-Americans moving out from Atlanta and Hispanics and Asians moving in from a variety of other countries.

This last table points to why education isn't a straightforward predictor of voting patterns. As far as education is concerned, Democratic preferences form kind of a U-shaped curve: The most heavily educated segments tend to be likely to vote Democratic (people with advanced degrees aren't necessarily wealthy members of the 1 percent; probably the biggest group is public school teachers with M.Eds), but then the least educated segments of the population also tend to be likely to vote Democratic (who tend to be people of color and/or immigrants, who are voting based on their economic interests or because the GOP's perceived disdain for them). Instead, it's the people with middling levels of education—two-year degrees, or "some college"—that tend to be the Republicans' strongest group. Unfortunately, the method I've used in this article can't pinpoint the "some college" crowd.

There is any number of other variables I could have plugged in, that would have yielded equally interesting results: Marital status, for instance, is a particularly strong predictor of voting behavior (in other words, places that have gained a lot of single adults are also places likely to have gained a lot of Democratic votes). But race and education are two of the most important variables, and they do a lot to explain the "why" behind Democratic gains in certain parts of the country. It's not just that the Democrats suddenly decided to "try harder" in, say, Virginia, or developed better messaging that mysteriously changed a lot of once-Republican minds; it's that the underlying population has changed in ways that let Democrats be more competitive there.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:19 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Nice analysis. I still am amazed at how rural (41+ / 0-)

    People vote against their own interests.  As a lifelong resident of Nebraska and Iowa, you'd think I'd have some insight.  No such luck.

    The fruits of the toil of millions are boldly stolen to build up colossal fortunes for a few, unprecedented in the history of mankind; and the possessors of those, in turn, despise the republic and endanger liberty. - Omaha Platform, 1892

    by Rikon Snow on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:33:28 AM PDT

      •  270strategies.com (0+ / 0-)

        Bird has a huge opportunity in Texas. This analysis makes that very clear.

      •  I think it's sociology (0+ / 0-)

        Emile Durkheim wrote of urban industrialized jobs being more specialized and interactive. The output of one worker in an urban area is the input to the next one, and the jobs are mostly embedded in bureaucracy. That's the outcome of industrialism, including postindustrial jobs.

        Jobs like that make everyone a lot more dependent on each other. They also are not as easy to manage because the workers are specialists and the managers don't have a clue how they perform their work. (They THINK they do, but managers really don't.)

        Also, religious ideologies do not dominate a given urban geography, so they are a lot less influential in elections. Religious tolerance is an urban characteristic.

        This leads politics to be more communitarian.

        Workers in rural areas have much more autonomy and control over the jobs they do. They tend to produce for the final customer rather than for other intermediate workers. Rural areas tend also to be dominated by the religion professed by the dominant class and the clergy of that religion tends to be a semi-official government functionary.

        Politics in rural areas will, as a result, tend to be more authoritarian.

        In Texas the urban areas are gerrymandered into a few large super Democratic districts and a lot of smaller Republican districts. A single voter is very unlikely to overwhelm the gerrymandering, so why bother to vote? That's especially true for Black voters who are used to vote suppression anyway.

        When Black and Hispanic voters get to elect their few representative officials, those officials are generally out to enrich themselves first because they will never be accepted in the higher reaches of power anyway. Again, why bother to vote for the crooks. That's especially true of the Black and Hispanic Republican elected officials.

        The US Supreme Court has by its actions and rhetoric has ceased to be legitimate. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - over

        by Rick B on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 01:06:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Dirty little secret (0+ / 0-)

        Demographics. We try to anticipate future election outcomes based on demographics that don't actually reflect the population, almost always excluding the poor (working, or worse off). Republicans couldn't win without strong support from the middle class. The poor don't vote for Republicans. Unfortunately, Democrats/liberals since Clinton have deeply alienated the poor. Clinton/Gore gave  us 8 years of Bush; the poor didn't vote for Bush;they withheld their votes and the middle class elected Bush. The poor did vote for President Obama, hoping he could launch a legitimate discussion about US poverty.  He tried a number of times, but lib media wasn't interested. With the current budget, 89 Democrats voted to slash food aid to the elderly, disabled and poor.  Again. Lib media has pushed VP Biden out of the picture to promote the anti-poor/pro-NAFTA Hillary Clinton. All of these factors add up to show that the next president will be a Republican.

        •  There is no "lib media". Corporate right (0+ / 0-)

          is what passes for "lib media". PBS is corporate right. "Democracy Now" and some programs on MSNBC are liberal programs but there isn't even an entire liberal network.

          48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam> "It is better to light a candle than to curse the darkness." Edna St.V. Millay

          by slouching on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 11:56:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  an important factor to consider in that (19+ / 0-)

      in most rural areas of the US right wing radio rules politics- there are no free alternatives while driving or working

      This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

      by certainot on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:39:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  oh, i prefer the simple ... (4+ / 0-)

        O.F.F.

        has always paid benefits/dividends/bonuses.
        especially while driving or working.
        especially at night.
        in the rain.

        TRAILHEAD of accountability for Bush-2 Crimes? -- Addington's Perpwalk.

        by greenbird on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:56:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  what's OFF? (0+ / 0-)

          This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

          by certainot on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:59:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I believe it's the little switch on your radio (4+ / 0-)

            (nothing more to read here...)

            •  ha ha. biggest mistake in political history (6+ / 0-)

              that's thee tactic liberals have been using for 25 years and it gave us bush, wars, god reagan, terrible supremes, the tea party, etc etc.

              if there's a guy standing on the corner across the street and he's yelling that your sister is a whore and your brother is a lazy thief and you ideas are treasonous and you stick your fingers in yourears and walk by every day without talking back, pretty soon your neighbors are going to believe him.

              that's why we've lost 25 years on global warming - biggest political mistake in history.

              This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

              by certainot on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:32:15 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  but sir ... um, cer ... (0+ / 0-)

                i was speaking of "while driving" and "while working" ... which are not the same thing as "ever."

                OTOH, my sister is my brother and my neighbors would never believe "guy" ... o nevah mind. poof.

                TRAILHEAD of accountability for Bush-2 Crimes? -- Addington's Perpwalk.

                by greenbird on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:35:58 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  they're there on every corner whether you hear (0+ / 0-)

                  them or not, all day long, and it's amazing what people believe if they hear it over and over in an environment with no free  easy alternatives, from blowhards chosen for their irrational levels of certitude, protected by call screeners and prompted by paid callers and think tank PR pros.

                  maybe when everyone's got high speed.... but that won't happen soon with the talk radio party obstructing everything.

                  if you live in a city on the coast you might not understand.

                  and who are you calling  a poof? just kidding

                  This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

                  by certainot on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 01:14:25 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  But some math (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  certainot

                  1*x = 24*(1/24)*x.

                  If you imagine the population tendency is continuous and add to it the fact that you don't have to 100% convince 100% of the people.  Just drive time is bad enough.

                  If you call someone a bigot for mere purposes of distraction that's Ad Hominem and specious.  But pointing out that someone is a bigot who aims to cause division by spreading bigotry daily using the radio is a public service.

      •  That's true and it's 24/7 propaganda. (0+ / 0-)

        The AM radio station in the SF bay area I used to listen to whenever I drive  got rid of all liberal voices and is now entirely right wing hate radio. Glenn Beck replaced the liberal who used to have that time slot. It's crazy because there was no demand for more hate radio. We don't take the enormous amount of propaganda generated on both tee vee and radio into account. That's why the rethugs can pull the medicare bait and switch over and over again. People who don't live in the US are better informed about our politics than we are.

        48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam> "It is better to light a candle than to curse the darkness." Edna St.V. Millay

        by slouching on Fri Mar 14, 2014 at 12:04:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That education level might have somthing to do (6+ / 0-)

      with it.

      •  Glad you're feeling superior. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        Where is the peace and justice party in the U. S.?  Both parties love sending working class kids to kill and be killed.  Both make trade deals that send working class jobs abroad.  Both let the banks do whatever they want with no price to pay.

        Actually, I think working class white voters--especially those who refuse to vote--are showing a lot of common sense.

        •  One of the big fallacies of the modern debate (6+ / 0-)

          is that education equals credentialing. While both are important, they aren't the exact same thing. Credentialing is a matter of class and power. Education is a matter of knowledge and exposure.

          One can be both "working class" and educated, and one can be a capitalist elite and ignorant as shit. One of the biggest problems with the conservative movement, and frankly the types of white people it enthralls, is that it is anti-intellectual. As in, anti-curiosity, which is the basis of all knowledge and the means through which all knowledge is acquired.

          And no, refusing to vote doesn't seem like a great sign of curiosity to me. Maybe, in certain instances. But "Knowing" the  vote "doesn't matter" is about as dogmatic and regressive and wrong as  "Knowing" the vote decides everything.

          •  Expand your education: Goldman & Einstein (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            deepeco, akze29, petral

            Good old Emma Goldman saw through it all pretty well more than 100 years ago:

            "All voting," says Thoreau, "is a sort of gaming, like checkers, or backgammon, a playing with right and wrong; its obligation never exceeds that of expediency. Even voting for the right thing is doing nothing for it. A wise man will not leave the right to the mercy of chance, nor wish it to prevail through the power of the majority." A close examination of the machinery of politics and its achievements will bear out the logic of Thoreau.

            What does the history of parliamentarism show? Nothing but failure and defeat, not even a single reform to ameliorate the economic and social stress of the people. Laws have been passed and enactments made for the improvement and protection of labor. Thus it was proven only last year that Illinois, with the most rigid laws for mine protection, had the greatest mine disasters. In States where child labor laws prevail, child exploitation is at its highest, and though with us the workers enjoy full political opportunities, capitalism has reached the most brazen zenith.

            Even were the workers able to have their own representatives, for which our good Socialist politicians are clamoring, what chances are there for their honesty and good faith? One has but to bear in mind the process of politics to realize that its path of good intentions is full of pitfalls: wire-pulling, intriguing, flattering, lying, cheating; in fact, chicanery of every description, whereby the political aspirant can achieve success. Added to that is a complete demoralization of character and conviction, until nothing is left that would make one hope for anything from such a human derelict. Time and time again the people were foolish enough to trust, believe, and support with their last farthing aspiring politicians, only to find themselves betrayed and cheated.

            It may be claimed that men of integrity would not become corrupt in the political grinding mill. Perhaps not; but such men would be absolutely helpless to exert the slightest influence in behalf of labor, as indeed has been shown in numerous instances. The State is the economic master of its servants. Good men, if such there be, would either remain true to their political faith and lose their economic support, or they would cling to their economic master and be utterly unable to do the slightest good. The political arena leaves one no alternative, one must either be a dunce or a rogue.

            The political superstition is still holding sway over the hearts and minds of the masses, but the true lovers of liberty will have no more to do with it. Instead, they believe with Stirner that man has as much liberty as he is willing to take. Anarchism therefore stands for direct action, the open defiance of, and resistance to, all laws and restrictions, economic, social, and moral. But defiance and resistance are illegal. Therein lies the salvation of man. Everything illegal necessitates integrity, self-reliance, and courage. In short, it calls for free, independent spirits, for "men who are men, and who have a bone in their backs which you cannot pass your hand through."

            Universal suffrage itself owes its existence to direct action. If not for the spirit of rebellion, of the defiance on the part of the American revolutionary fathers, their posterity would still wear the King's coat. If not for the direct action of a John Brown and his comrades, America would still trade in the flesh of the black man. True, the trade in white flesh is still going on; but that, too, will have to be abolished by direct action. Trade-unionism, the economic arena of the modern gladiator, owes its existence to direct action. It is but recently that law and government have attempted to crush the trade-union movement, and condemned the exponents of man's right to organize to prison as conspirators. Had they sought to assert their cause through begging, pleading, and compromise, trade-unionism would today be a negligible quantity. In France, in Spain, in Italy, in Russia, nay even in England (witness the growing rebellion of English labor unions), direct, revolutionary, economic action has become so strong a force in the battle for industrial liberty as to make the world realize the tremendous importance of labor's power. The General Strike, the supreme expression of the economic consciousness of the workers, was ridiculed in America but a short time ago. Today every great strike, in order to win, must realize the importance of the solidaric general protest.

            Direct action, having proven effective along economic lines, is equally potent in the environment of the individual. There a hundred forces encroach upon his being, and only persistent resistance to them will finally set him free. Direct action against the authority in the shop, direct action against the authority of the law, direct action against the invasive, meddlesome authority of our moral code, is the logical, consistent method of Anarchism.

            Einstein:
            Private capital tends to become concentrated in few hands, partly because of competition among the capitalists, and partly because technological development and the increasing division of labor encourage the formation of larger units of production at the expense of smaller ones. The result of these developments is an oligarchy of private capital the enormous power of which cannot be effectively checked even by a democratically organized political society. This is true since the members of legislative bodies are selected by political parties, largely financed or otherwise influenced by private capitalists who, for all practical purposes, separate the electorate from the legislature. The consequence is that the representatives of the people do not in fact sufficiently protect the interests of the underprivileged sections of the population. Moreover, under existing conditions, private capitalists inevitably control, directly or indirectly, the main sources of information (press, radio, education). It is thus extremely difficult, and indeed in most cases quite impossible, for the individual citizen to come to objective conclusions and to make intelligent use of his political rights.
    •  "Voting against the big city" may be part of the (12+ / 0-)

      explanation.

      Cities attract a more diverse representation of humanity, which makes it easy for politicians in the rural parts to attack them as "un-like us". Since Democrats evolved as the party of the big city, (beginning with the Irish machines) the country-side slowly but surely went Republican. Of course, notions of race, class, religion etc. are at least equally important factors, and there are exceptions like New England, where urban and rural voters both prefer Democrats.

      "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect." Mark Twain

      by aufklaerer on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:12:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rural Voters Tend To Be RW Christian Conservatives (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mdriftmeyer, Odysseus, LordMike, 417els

      I live in rural Florida and the county I live in used to be democrat, and about 10 years ago the county turned republican and I believe it is because of religion and guns.  President Obama was right 100 percent when he said that poor people turn to religion and guns when things get bad.  Rural areas have not had it very good in the last decade or so.  Also, a lot of racist live out in rural areas and I don't know why unless it goes back to religion again.  

      I believe my husband and I as liberals are the exception.  Yesterday, there was two young man selling religious items for their church or school or whatever in front of the dollar store and asked my husband and I to give them a donation and we walked to our car and said nothing.  They looked at us like we were the enemy.  I believe that religious RW conservatives just believe that everyone in rural areas are religious.  Obviously not, since my husband and I are not.

      "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

      by rssrai on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:30:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Against their own interest? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tuckerm, McGahee220, Odysseus, petral

      Just how do you figure that?

      There's the rub in this analysis, and it's been exposed by the recent Pew poll.

      Yes, views on social issues among younger voters--across ethnic and cultural groups--is moving left.  The Ds have been reluctant beneficiaries of this, i.e. they never led the move, but since the Rs are such cultural reactionaries, the Ds have benefited.

      On the other hand, both parties' craven obeisance to the plutocrats has alienated all voters.  The Ds' abandonment of working class issues has meant that there is no reason to vote for Ds for working class voters.  Mr. Shawnee Mission East (one of the richest, whitest high schools in the country), Thomas Frank could even see that.

      As Pew demonstrated, millennials are quite liberal, but they aren't Ds.  Why should they be?  The Ds do nothing to stand up for their economic issues other than bullshit noise on sites like this and MSDNC.  In the real world, they make deals with Rs to fuck over this demographic for the benefit of Dimon, Blankfein, et al.

      •  Part of the Problem, if not the Problem is that (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        deepeco, Odysseus, Ahianne

        these liberals haven't figured out what a primary is for --- unlike our Tea Party brothers. When a Republican isn't right wing enough for the "base", they get primaried. (A rational decesion) Too often, when a Democrat isn't left enough for the base, the base "drops out and tunes out" a not very rational decision, IMHO.

        If and when the left realizes primarying Democrats from the left is just as valid as primarying Republicans from the right, then you'll see some real change in politics.

        •  You're assuming a democratic system. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          In the R party, it's a contest between those who want to kiss the feet of the plutocrats and those who want to kiss their ass.

          A Left challenge to a D brings out all the money and Establishment Ds on one side.  That's why it's so very rare and almost never successful.  If it ever is, then the Establishment Ds jump ship and join the Rs in the general (see McGovern).

          •  Yeah, don't you even get tired of the "There's (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Ahianne, Aramis Wyler

            nothing we can do..." line?

            As they say, if that was true, we'd all be still building Pyramids for the Paraoh. In the end, while debating strategies is good, and the forces arrayed against liberalism are particularly strong, I think it is just if not more important to remind ourselves that just because Nirvana isn't around the corner, doens't mean improvements are impossible.

    •  It depends how you define "your interests" (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, 417els, latts, petral, jgumby

      If you believe that your primary interests are to to prevent imaginary hoards of brown skinned people coming after "your stuff" and giving your family abortions and taking away your guns, then Republicans would be a better choice for you.

      Yeah, everything I said above is all bullshit, but that's the kind of stuff that republican voters have been told to believe. If you believe all that garbage, then the choice of the GOP isn't voting against your interests at all.

      It's just sad that people are making a rational choice based on irrational lies.

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 01:55:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Does it matter? (6+ / 0-)

    The work with the maps is amazing - truly amazing.

    However, I do worry about the many tricks and steals going on today. With everything from electronic voting machines to the Kochs to voter roll purging to voter restriction laws to gerrymandering - is it really going to matter what shifts where if a few people have control over the whole shebang without our consent or control?

    Strange but not a stranger.

    by jnww on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:45:20 AM PDT

    •  I don't mean (11+ / 0-)

      to single you out, because I used to see a lot of comments saying this kind of thing prior to the 2012 election -- someone would post poll results showing Democrats winning, and someone else would always write in the comments that the polls were obviously wrong because they didn't factor in voter suppression/new voter ID laws/the Koch brothers' unstoppable superpowers, hence we're all doomed.

      So it's a little strange to see the same kind of comment, now that here we are, in a world where Mitt Romney isn't president, where, say, Connie Mack isn't Senator from Florida, Ken Cuccinelli isn't Governor of Virginia, and so on. Pretty much every race, across the boards, played out the way the data said it would, based on polling or on predictive demographic modeling. It's pretty clear that a majority of people in the red states truly are consenting to what the Republicans are offering; the real question should be 'why,' and 'what messaging could we use that gets them to think differently?'

      I don't mean to say, oh, your concerns are frivolous, let's unilaterally disarm and let Republicans enact whatever restrictive laws they want; I'm just saying let's fight those laws in the courts (where we have a good track record of success, actually), let's fight gerrymandering by getting as many states as possible to switch to independent redistricting commissions (through the initiative and referendum process, where possible), and beyond that, don't waste energy getting fatalistic assuming the Republican elites have eerie powers that are a magic bullet that will always defeat our superior numbers.

      Voter suppression laws are effective only around the margins, so the real trick is to not let elections get close in the first place. And if the Koch brothers want to blow millions on outdated, ineffective methods, well, let them; I'd rather have them spend their money on repetitive TV ads that cost a fortune and don't cut through the clutter, than have them realize how stupid that is and have them spend that money on GOTV or building better voter files or developing better micro-targeting strategies or stuff that actual winning campaigns do.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:07:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  has anyone looked at ratio of education to income? (4+ / 0-)

    That may be the single greatest predictor of political preference, after race and gender (possibly as strong or stronger than gender).

    It may also explain the U-shaped curve.  More education means more income but there's a somewhat diminishing marginal return with more education.

    I won't go into my biased ideas as to WHY more education protects against voting Republican :).  I do think it's clear that (race and gender being equal) high income/relatively low education is an enormously Republican factor, whereas high income people with a lot of education, while not the most progressive demographic, are also far from the most conservative.

    •  Education vs provinciality. (4+ / 0-)
      I won't go into my biased ideas as to WHY more education protects against voting Republican :).
      When you live in a region that's 98% homogenous and you never see anyone different, you get all kinds of bizarre ideas.  Broad experience inherently innoculates you against certain forms of Republican thought.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 07:39:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  this reminds me of a chart bordeieu made (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ahianne, petral, David Jarman

      explaining the divide between left and right, culturally, in france. it wasn't wealth or cultural attainment per se, so much as the ratio of one's cultural capital to one's economic capital. the more one's ratio tilted to culture, the more left one was, and vice versa. so all classes ended up internally divided against themselves, in uneasy alliances with their counterparts in other classes.

      race makes american politics work a bit differently, but the same pattern exists.

  •  After watching the movie Nebraska (4+ / 0-)

    I get the rural red state trance.

    It's just all those folks know, and they don't like change.

    Their narrative is membership in their world.

    If cats could blog, they wouldn't

    by crystal eyes on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:46:24 AM PDT

  •  Constitutional changes are needed to make (4+ / 0-)

    our government more representative of the American People. Weighting senate votes to reflect the different population sizes of the states for example,  

    "If Wall Street paid a tax on every “game” they run, we would get enough revenue to run the government on." ~ Will Rogers

    by Lefty Coaster on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:46:50 AM PDT

    •  Getting people to vote and protecting their vote (9+ / 0-)

      That would be a good start.

      -National voter rolls taking it out of the hands of all the Katherine Harris wannabes,
      -Making election day a paid federal holiday so everyone could vote,
      -Giving convicted prisoners their vote after they did their time,
      -Nonpartisan district map making so that gerrymandering would end once and for all.
      -Federal financing of elections
      -Ban on outside money in elections
      -Early voting
      -Mail in voting

      There are so many options.  But if we want to fix our system we have to make sure everyone eligible to vote has the opportunity to vote and ensure that their vote won't get stolen.  The more people get to vote the more likely Dems win without without gerrymandering.  With  non partisan groups drawing the district lines we wouldn't ever again have to worry about the ridiculous gerrymandering where we get 3-90% Dem districts and 12-55% GOP districts in blue states.  Then we have to get money OUT of our election process.  That will help in ending the corrupting of our system.

      If we had those things then our representatives would be more representative of the people in their districts.    

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:19:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I believe we should double the size of the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Berkeley Fred

      House, outlaw gerrymandering, have CDs drawn by independent committees, and enact campaign finance reform for starters. Personally I wouldn't mind just doing away with the Senate and going to a parliamentary system similar to the UK. But my views are probably too radical, even for DK.

      Guns are never the principal in the commission of a crime, but they are usually an accomplice

      by MadGeorgiaDem on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:36:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Whatever. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cville townie
        But my views are probably too radical, even for DK.
        Bullshit.

        Don't just say it, do it.
        If you can't win elections, why should anyone listen to you?

        Setting the size of each house district to the smallest state population would be interesting.  I'm not going to defend 435 as any line in the sand.

        Frankly, if you want to make the Senate irrelevant, get a few thousand of your closest friends together and fucking do it.

        -7.75 -4.67

        "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

        There are no Christians in foxholes.

        by Odysseus on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 07:43:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A note: (0+ / 0-)

    Oakland County, MI, has a large university. I attended it, in fact. But I would not count it as "Detroit Area". Pontiac is the county seat.

    Pope Francis: the Thumb of Christ in the eyes of the Pharisees.

    by commonmass on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:49:10 AM PDT

    •  My main goal (11+ / 0-)

      is naming things was just to use something generic enough that most people would know right away where a county is, even if they haven't heard the county name, without having to grab an atlas. I've been to Pontiac, actually, and can attest to it being a large, urbanized place, but I'm not sure our typical reader has that knowledge, but they do know where the suburbs of Detroit area. (I suppose then you could ask, "so why isn't Clark County called Portland area?" and that would be valid, though I think more people know about Vancouver, WA, if only because at some point they had to learn that it's different from Vancouver, BC.)

      At any rate, I think a large part of the college-educated growth in Oakland Co. doesn't have as much to do with a university as it may have to do with Detroit's African-American middle class having largely decamped in the last few decades to places across the county line like Royal Oak.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:07:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Los Angeles, my town, is becoming less white... (12+ / 0-)

    ...and more educated.  And if we have a bit of patience, the OC, behind the Orange Curtain but also in the Greater LA metropolitan area, will also become blue thanks to the dynamics.

    I was precinct captain in the OC in 2004 and there was a total of 3 registered Dems in the whole precinct.

    Essentially the GOP doomed itself when it attracted the racists with the Southern Strategy.

    Gerrymandering can slow down the process for a while but not for ever.

    OTOH given that the political polarization is as great as it was right after the Civil War, I have a troubling vision of armed conflict between rural and urban America.  And Repug leaders brandishing rifles in CPAC is another data point.

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:49:12 AM PDT

    •  Violence between 'urbans' and 'rurals' (0+ / 0-)

      Violence between 'urbans' and 'rurals' would be as short lived as it would be tragic, I think.  I wouldn't worry too much about it.  The odds would be stacked enormously and obviously against a rural offender, and I don't think the urbans would feel compelled to go on any offense againse the rurals.

      The rurals could only win by siege, and siege is not amenable to short-term rage, nor could it withstand the army.

      Currently reading: * People Habitat: 25 Ways to Think About Greener, Healthier Cities * The 5th Discipline * It's All About Work

      by Aramis Wyler on Mon Mar 10, 2014 at 09:03:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  you, and Brainwrap ... (4+ / 0-)

    such beeeeeyoutiful data.
    and narrative !!
    sustenance of a higher order. thanks!

    TRAILHEAD of accountability for Bush-2 Crimes? -- Addington's Perpwalk.

    by greenbird on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:54:53 AM PDT

  •   ALEC/GOP has better control of local also (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Buzzer
    But why would that happen, in a country with nationalized campaigns, run mostly on nationwide media? Shouldn't the swing from election to election, from place to place, be pretty uniform?
    another factor is the ability of the state ALEC GOP think tanks to use rw radio on city and county levels, for free.
    the national blowhards like limbaugh also involve themselves in state and even local issues/elections.

    you might consider presence of progressive radio or prevalence of major rw signals when looking at anomalies. CO and NM went blue soon after they got their first progressive radio stations. they were smaller signals but truth and common sense work. it's too bad dems and progressive groups don't challenge talk radio instead of studiously ignoring it. rw radio works because it's getting a free speech free ride.

    many of those red areas with voters voting against their own interests are red with lots of voters voting against their own interests because of rw radio. there may not be many african americans that fall for that shit but it does appeal to conservative hispanics and a lot of whites men and women trying to get some politics/current events before going home to fight the family for the remote control.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 11:58:11 AM PDT

  •  Drilling down shows problems (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jessical, Duncan Idaho, Odysseus, Ahianne

    I realize that you are well aware that no one or two theories can predict voting behavior.  And I'm sure that at a national level you've chosen a couple of strong variables.  However, in Washington state your map is way off.

    In the NW corner of the state both Whatcom & especially Jefferson counties are very white and apparently have seen an increase in non-college grads (though I don't know if it as strong as you depict) so should, by your theory, vote R.  Not so.  Both are reliable D voting counties.  

    Over in Eastern Washington, Yakima county certainly has a lot of Hispanic residents, but is one of the most reactionary Republican Tea Party idiot supporting counties in the state.  Pretty much the same story throughout Eastern WA.  I'm not sure if your data set included undocumented residents or it could just reflect the abysmal turn-out rates for non-white voters over there.  Might be time for some voter registration campaigns on the dry side of the state.

    •  Yeah, it's a problem (6+ / 0-)

      that calls for multivariate regression analysis, which, since I'm not trying to write a PhD dissertation here, I wasn't planning to get into. At any rate, I think what you're describing is that there are other variables that impact how much education and/or race matter. It might be religion, or cultural attitudes (as seen in data like marital status), or urban/rural, or maybe something as simple as region. (If you've taken sociology, I'm describing everything that all kind of falls under the rubric of "second demographic transition.")

      In a condensed form, in some parts of the country, race seems to be more important a factor than education (cough cough, the south), while in other parts, education seems to play more of a role than race: for instance, Vermont is one of the whitest states in the nation, but also one of the most liberal, and it has above-average education levels. Washington (along with the upper midwest and of course New England) is more along those latter lines. In particular, Whatcom is in large part defined by its university, which has a pretty crunchy reputation, and Jefferson has a lot of retirees from Seattle who've brought their values (and education) with them.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:34:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for an interesting analysis. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ahianne, Aramis Wyler

        I have thought for some time that Jefferson and San Juan counties, WA, are interesting as examples of rural counties with few minority voters, that are nevertheless strongly Democratic, and apparently trending more so.  

        Your education trends analysis helps explain that. (I think of it as an "artist-colony" effect, which perhaps is another way of looking at the same thing.)

  •  I would love too see an interactive maps using the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jessical, Odysseus, Ahianne

    Pew categories (Disaffected, New Coalition, etc) I don't know where to get the info but it would be cool!!!

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)! Follow on Twitter @dopper0189

    by dopper0189 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 12:26:11 PM PDT

  •  Democratic Party complacency... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Odysseus, scott jones

    reminds me of the SPD in the Weimar.

    As this economy continues to alienate and impoverish people and the Democratic Party continues to serve its banker financiers, we'll see a rise in Far Right views.  It's happening throughout Europe as formerly social democratic parties sell out to plutocrats and leave working class voters with no alternative friendly to their interests.

    Identity politics ain't gonna get it done.  That's why this political system will lead nowhere good.

  •  this illustrates (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ahumbleopinion

    even more why the gop can't let the vote be free and easy in the cities where the population is concentrated.

    in the rural areas there aren't enough voters to need extra procedures to help everyone vote without standing in line for hours, in the cities that is critical to getting all that want to vote the best chance.

    since the heavily populated areas vote solidly dem its obvious why the gop can't let them vote without obstruction.

    the hatred by the right to non whites taking control of their white christian nation is  more than they can stand and if they have to resort to a fascist agenda to stop it their religious dogma can justify that like many things in their eyes.

    up to now the gop hasn't resorted to violence in its attempt to hold on to power but the more desperate it gets the more it will resort to what ever is necessary to not become irrelevant.

  •  NY Gubernatorial (0+ / 0-)

    What do you think of the affect of the suburban vote during a gubernatorial election (New York specifically)? Will they be the deciding vote?

    •  Considering that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, pademocrat

      Andrew Cuomo is leading NY-Gov polls by something like 40-50 points, I think it's safe to conclude that he will win the suburban vote this year with crushing margins. So "deciding vote," no... but I think you're thinking more in terms of what Nate Silver has called the "tipping point" vote, so in that sense, yes. In other words, the suburbs in NY (as in most places) tend to be more conservative than the cities, but less conservative than the rural areas, and if you arrange the counties in order from most to least Democratic, then, yes, the median vote statewide is likely to be found in Westchester or Nassau Counties. However, when those counties are going something like 55-60% Democratic on a regular basis, though, well, that's the recipe for a dark-blue state like New York.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 02:29:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thank You (0+ / 0-)

    From all the noise in the media about the upcoming mid-terms, it looks like the Good Guys are going to hold on to the Senate and make some nice inroads to the majority in the House.

    Let's hope our guys show up at the voting booths so we can continue to confiscate money via taxes from the rich. We've stalled out with the divisions in Congress the last couple of years and we've got to get the President's vision for the future of the country back on track.

  •  "Beware of maya."--George Harrison (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    I wish that the political landscape was changing because more souls were becoming spiritually enlightened.  And it's not that I don't welcome all people of color who come to America or are born here, because I do.
    But the tide is turning while having to push against the resistance of a huge and growing false reality, or "maya," which leads to spiritual corruption on a massive scale.

    "One of the boss' hangers-on sometimes comes to call, at times you least expect. Tryin' to bully you, strongarm you, inspire you with fear--it has the opposite effect."--Bob Dylan, "Floater"

    by oldmaestro on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 03:39:06 PM PDT

  •  I too, would say that this is quite... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ahianne

    an interesting county by county analysis of what is going on.  During that time period, 1990-2010, I lived in 3 distinct areas of this nation:  NE Kansas (Jackson, Shawnee, Douglas (the bulk of this time period), and Johnson), NE Ohio (Cuyahoga, Medina, Summit), and Tampa Bay, FL (Pinellas, where I reside now).  Nothing really surprised me, everything pretty much matched with what I suspected.  I have always had relatives in these 3 areas, so visited them a lot of them while on vacation, and kept up with the local "scene".

    Some of the overlying assumptions though, might be a little off.  Just because a county has shown a net white gain, doesn't mean they're going to be reliably "R".  I tell you what, when I lived in Douglas Co., KS, that county was heavily white, and was, as an aggregate stereotypical whole, blue.  

  •  This is one of the BEST front page pieces I have (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Jarman, Odysseus

    read in a long time.  Thanks for all the work you put into this. It really helps me--and I would guess others--understand what's really going on.

    What's interesting to me re Orange County, CA (mentioned in the charts in several places), is that we STILL remain so utterly red, particularly in off-election years.  While it's true that Obama lost by only 2.56% in 2008--but lost by 6.22% in 2012--(he actually should have won both elections here) other dems running for a variety of offices lost by remarkably large percentages in 2008 (see here).

    Why, you ask?  Well, Latino candidates did fine in their districts (largely Latino districts), but otherwise, the non-Hispanic population huddles together, particularly in newer, expensive south Orange County and the coastal areas.

    What this means is that we are LIGHT YEARS away from getting Congressional representation to match blue/red stats.

    We're still sending folks like Ed Royce, Ken Calvert, Dana Rohrabacher etc. to Washington (2008), wanted to send Meg Whitman to Sacto over Jerry Brown (winning by a massive 19.4% in OC) in 2010 but the reps were solidly R where they had been in 2008, but often by 30% or more!

    There is tremendous economic disparity in OC and despite the gains in diversity, the votes just aren't showing up in electoral politics for dems, for the most part.  Sadly.

    The more I think about this the more depressed I get.

    2012 in for dems was as dismal as 2010 and 2008 (most R victories were 25% or better).

    The only hawk I like is the kind that has feathers.

    by cany on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:27:16 PM PDT

  •  Fascinating. Great Work. Thanks n/t (0+ / 0-)

    This aggression will not stand, man.

    by kaleidescope on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:47:41 PM PDT

  •  Figures Don't Lie But Liars Figure (0+ / 0-)

    [This is not meant as any reflection on this particular figurer, who has done yeoman service but reflects a nearly universal racism that should be terrifying to all.]

    My wife and I have the unhealthy pallor of those most vulnerable to skin cancer as do our children.

    If my Chinese daughter-in-law, who does not have the unhealthy pallor of many of her nationality of those most vulnerable to skin cancer, has a baby,  what would be the race of the baby?

    Please don't give me that mixed race horse hockey.  Few polls bother with that particularly nauseous vulgarity.

    It is most unpleasant to me to think people vote their racism but it is hard to deny the findings.

    Again, there is no intent on my part to condemn the work done in this diary.  Rather I applaud the effort and have recommended it.

    Best,  Terry

  •  Where education trumps race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aamail6

    Larimer County CO shows both a high net gain in white residents and college educated ones. The county has become much more reliably Democratic in recent years and is growing to resemble very liberal, highly educated, very homogenously white Boulder County to its south.

  •  Irrelavant (0+ / 0-)

    County information is interesting, but it's voting district that matters.

    Gerrymandering

    Republicans just took over NC and will likely remain in power for a decade after the great gerrymandering of 2012. If you can't beat them cheat them.

  •  Modern politics: Playing both against the middle. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Jarman

    "It's the people with middling levels of education—two-year degrees, or 'some college" -- that tend to be the Republicans' strongest group. Unfortunately, the method I've used in this article can't pinpoint the 'some college' crowd."

    A group that might be described as most likely to THINK they know what they really DON'T know.

    If there's any better reason why that demographic tends to vote Republican, I haven't heard it.

  •  What about control over women's bodies? (0+ / 0-)

    What is motivating this horrible trend to legislate away women's right to control our bodies? Does that correlate with any specific factors? I would guess Republican would be a fit. But what about rich Republicans? Does level of education have an effect?

  •  Insightful post (0+ / 0-)

    Thanks for the information.  Not surprising that non-white population change and more education correlate with progressive votes - Republicans biggest nightmare.

  •  Yes. It's an interesting diary. Thanks. (0+ / 0-)

    48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam> "It is better to light a candle than to curse the darkness." Edna St.V. Millay

    by slouching on Fri Mar 14, 2014 at 12:10:02 AM PDT

  •  Great analysis, but (0+ / 0-)

    In the education list, the Texas counties with Hispanic influx you say we'll have to wait a long time to see dividends are already all Democratic except for Tarrant County.

    More positively, I love that you singled out Gwinnett County, GA, and talked about it separately.  I used to live there!

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