No one could've predicted that promising austerity would depress Alex Sink's base turnout!
Last night, Republicans narrowly held, 48.4-46.6, a Florida congressional seat narrowly won by President Barack Obama by 50-49 in 2012.
It shouldn't be surprising that Democrats lost a seat Obama barely won despite his vaunted and massive turnout machine in a presidential year. As I've written time and time again, Democrats suffer from poor non-presidential year turnout among its most important base voter groups.
While there are no exit polls, there are clear signs of that base Democratic voter dropoff. Like this:
30% turnout in Sink districts, 50% in Jolly's. That's the story of FL-13. GOTV fail and blown opportunity for Dems. Time to regroup...
— @Alan_Covington
Or the fact that 43 percent of the early vote was Republican compared to 38 percent Democratic.
Given the GOP's effective 2010 gerrymandering, there aren't a lot of opportunities for Democrats to make gains, and this is a rare Obama district held by a GOPer. I'd be willing to bet that November turnout would make this a tighter race, and 2016 will be a whole other beast. The GOP is holding this district on borrowed time.
But given our anemic base turnout, Democratic candidates need to do a better job motivating them to vote. And in this case, I don't blame our base voters. When Democrats like Alex Sink run on austerity, cutting Social Security and bringing back the Simpson-Bowles Catfood Commission, well, no one is inspired. That has to be part of any effective base-mobilization strategy. Maybe promising to be a dick wins over some independent support (Sink did win the early vote despite the outsized GOP numbers), but that's as relevant as Mitt Romney winning independents by double digits in 2012. Democrats win by getting Democrats to the polls. There are more of us than there are of them. Period.
Still, last night wasn't a disaster:
Good lord, Pubs barely hold a seat in an overwhelming white district they've held for 4 decades and had to spend $5M to do it? We'll be fine
— @Alan_Covington
Add "southern" to "overwhelmingly white" and suddenly the GOP's victory last night looks that much less impressive. Borrowed time.