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Leading Off:

MI-11: Freedom's Defense Fund, a conservative group, is unleashing a new ad targeting attorney David Trott, who is challenging accidental Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in the GOP primary. The spot tells, in vivid detail, the story of Texana Hollis, a 101-year-old Detroit woman who was evicted from her home in 2011 and actually turned out into the street after her son failed to pay her mortgage. Hollis' possessions, says the announcer, were "thrown in the dumpster"—including her "life-saving medication." What does this all have to do with Trott? It was his eponymous law firm that foreclosed on Hollis.

Fortunately, thanks to a campaign led by writer Mitch Albom, Hollis was able to reclaim her home, which she'd lived in for 60 years. She died on New Year's Eve at the age of 103, but she most certainly hasn't been forgotten. It may be only be expedient that Trott's now getting ripped for what his firm did, but that's politics.

Senate:

AK-Sen: On Tuesday, when Club for Growth chief Chris Chocola teased that his organization would be issuing a new Senate endorsement, we crossed our fingers for Paul Broun. Sadly, it's not to be. Instead, they're backing former state Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who's running in the GOP primary in Alaska.

It's a rare occasion when the Club is on the same page as the Republican establishment, which has expressed a preference for Sullivan over Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell. It's also notable because tea party nut Joe Miller is in the race, too, and this means there likely won't be much in the way of outside help for his troubled cause, particularly since he had the Club's support in 2010.

Still, the fact that Sullivan has earned the extremists' seal of approval makes you wonder if he could have some real liabilities in the general election. Just take a look at some of the people they've endorsed in recent years, like Miller: Steve King, Ted Cruz, Richard Mourdock, Sharron Angle... you get the idea. Maybe Sullivan will be the next Pat Toomey, but he could also turn out to be the next Ken Buck.

LA-, NC-, CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Thanks to the Cook Political Report, we've learned a bit more about that newly surfaced February poll of the Arkansas Senate race from Hickman Analytics on behalf of what Politico termed a "non-partisan client." Not so sure about that: Hickman may be a Democratic pollster, but their customer in this case was a front group called the Consumer Energy Alliance that's funded by the likes of BP, Chevron, and ExxonMobil and supports building the Keystone XL pipeline. So these guys clearly have an agenda, which explains all the questions about fracking and KXL.

What's also emerged is that Hickman conducted three other Senate polls on behalf of the CEA, in Colorado, Louisiana, and North Carolina. (They also checked the gubernatorial race in Colorado.) Even though multiple Republicans are challenging the Democratic incumbents in each of these contests, Hickman only asked about one challenger in each case:

CO-Sen: Sen. Mark Udall (D): 46, Ken Buck (R): 42

CO-Gov: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D): 51, Tom Tancredo (R): 40

LA-Sen: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D): 42, Bill Cassidy (R): 46

NC-Sen: Sen. Kay Hagan: 45, Thom Tillis: 41

Of course, Buck's not running in Colorado any longer, but Hickman was in the field before Rep. Cory Gardner got into the race. This is a good reason not to sit on polling, though these numbers are very similar to what Quinnipiac and PPP have both found, as are Hickenlooper's. And Hagan's standing is just about where PPP has the contest, too. But the only pollster to find Landrieu down like that against Cassidy is Rasmussen; even Republican outfit Harper Polling isn't as bearish. Landrieu, of course, is a big proponent of the Keystone pipeline, so if CEA is trying to send some kind of message here, it's not at all clear what it might be.

P.S. While we're talking about Landrieu, the pro-Democratic Senate Majority PAC just filed an independent expenditure report for a $94,000 ad buy on her behalf, but the spot doesn't appear to be available anywhere yet.

NE-Sen: A new survey from The Polling Company for Breitbart (!) finds former state Treasurer Shane Obsorn leading college president Ben Sasse 35-24, with banker Sid Dinsdale at 9, though it's clear from the writeup that the Breitbart gang is rooting for Sasse. The headline says that Sasse is "surging" (there are no trendlines), and the polling memo claims the race is "wide open" and that Sasse is "poised to challenge the presumed frontrunner."

There's been an interesting (and rare) split between movement conservatives in this race, though, in that FreedomWorks is backing Osborn while the Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund are both supporting Sasse. Evidently, Breitbart, a site that doesn't seem to play much in electoral politics, has come down on the side of the latter.

OK-Sen-B: A month-old Tarrance Group poll conducted for Rep. James Lankford shows him beating former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon 47-17 in the GOP primary. That spread is somewhat smaller than the 54-18 edge Harper found a couple of weeks prior to Tarrance's survey.

Gubernatorial:

AZ-Gov: Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, who had long threatened to seek re-election even though third terms are forbidden by Arizona's constitution, has bowed to reality and won't try to challenge the law. Brewer declined to endorse in the crowded GOP primary to succeed her, but she did note that she has over $1 million sitting in two PACs she controls and plans to keep raising—and spending—money to support like-minded Republican candidates.

IA-Gov: Hrm. That recent Selzer & Co. poll of the Iowa governor's race suffered from some pretty serious internal contradictions, but now another survey is also showing some horserace slippage for GOP Gov. Terry Branstad. Quinnipiac finds Branstad leading Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch 46-35, down from 49-33 in December, which could very well be a bit of noise. Still, it does show movement in the same direction that Selzer did. Branstad's unlikely to face much trouble for re-election, but it's still worth keeping an eye on this one.

WI-Gov: Rasmussen: Mary Burke (D): 45, Gov. Scott Walker (R): 45.

House:

AZ-07: Former Rep. Harry Mitchell is something of a legend in Arizona politics, thanks in large part to his decades-long tenure as mayor of Tempe. (The city even erected a statue in his honor, even if it's a bit more on the conceptual side.) So earning his endorsement is a good get for state Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is running in the Democratic primary for the open 7th District. However, as Rebekah Sanders notes, in the 9th District last cycle, Mitchell backed then-state Sen. David Schapira, who lost to now-Rep. Kyrsten Sinema.

CA-33: Another boost for state Sen. Ted Lieu, fresh off earning the formal endorsement of the California Democratic Party over the weekend: The state branch of the SEIU, which represents over 700,000 workers statewide, has given him their support. Lieu's chief rival to replace retiring Rep. Henry Waxman is former Los Angeles City Controller Wendy Greuel, a fellow Democrat, though an assortment of other lesser-known candidates are also running.

CA-41: Uh, okay. A new poll from Wenzel Strategies for Riverside City Councilman Steve Adams finds him tied with freshman Rep. Mark Takano at 42. This district went 62-36 for Obama, Takano won 59-41 against a very well-funded opponent in 2012, and Adams hasn't even cracked $100,000 in fundraising. Garbage in, garbage out.

FL-13: For what it's worth DCCC chair Steve Israel says he called Alex Sink and left a message suggesting she run again in November, when he expects Democratic turnout to be better. Israel added that Sink hasn't phoned him back yet.

More importantly, if you want to read the best post-mortem on the special election out there, check out Ed Kilgore's take (with an assist from Tom Schaller). Kilgore stresses, exactly as we have, that it's all about the falloff in Democratic turnout, and illustrates the problem acutely.

IL-13: With just a few days to go before Tuesday's Democratic primary, former judge Ann Callis has released her third (and presumably final) television ad. The narrator mentions her creation of special veterans' courts (something she talked about in a prior spot) and her endorsement from Sen. Dick Durbin, but most of the ad is about Callis' commitment to "protecting Social Security and Medicare, not privatizing them." That's direct pushback against a dirty ad by her main rival, physics professor George Gollin, who baldly twisted a clip of Callis to make it seem like she wanted to undermine Social Security.

NC-12: A new poll from Hamilton Campaigns for Alma Adams finds her leading the pack in the Democratic primary for North Carolina's vacant (and solidly blue) 12th District:

State Rep. Alma Adams: 26
State Sen. Malcolm Graham: 19
Ex-Charlotte-Mecklenberg
School Board Chair George Battle:
9
Ex-Charlotte City Councilor
James "Smuggie" Mitchell:
9
State Rep. Marcus Brandon: 4
Attorney Curtis Osborne: 3
Some Dude Rajive Patel: 1
Undecided: 29
Adams, who has the backing of EMILY's List, also raised the most money in the fourth quarter, $113,000, versus $70,000 for Graham. The primary is May 6. If no candidate clears 40 percent, a runoff will be held on July 15.

NY-22: Huh. Republican Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney is reportedly gearing up to challenge sophomore Rep. Richard Hanna in this June's GOP primary, and, at least according to unnamed sources, is starting to circulate petitions to get on the ballot. Hanna has one of the most moderate records in the House Republican caucus, and he's openly trashed his own party at times, even exhorting women to donate to Democrats back in 2012 because "[s]o many of your rights are under assault." He also has a terrible lifetime rating with the Club for Growth.

Tenney would undoubtedly run to Hanna's right (she's apparently consulted with Conservative Party chair Michael Long about this move), and given how tolerant Republican primary voters tend to be of guys like Hanna, she'd have a shot at winning, at least on paper. However, Hanna has half-a-million bucks stockpiled, and Tenney would have little time to mount a serious campaign. Even so, Democrats need to find a warm body of their own in a hurry, as no Democratic candidates have declared. But if Tenney were to pull off the upset, Team Blue would want to compete for this swingy seat, seeing as Mitt Romney carried it by less than half of one percent.

WV-03: The race in West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District is really starting to feel like a bit of unfinished business from 2010. Now you have Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall saying things like "I probably have supported George Bush more than I have Barack Obama," which sounds an awful lot like the tune a lot of Blue Dogs unsuccessfully tried dancing to four years ago. (It's definitely played on a piani with a cartoon character firing a revolver at your feet.)

Rahall also insisted that his polling shows nothing like the 54-40 margin recently seen in a survey from his Republican challenger, state Sen. Evan Jenkins—but he declined to say what his own numbers were, which is always troubling sign. They're probably better, but if Rahall's not sharing them, then they're probably not very good, either.

Other Races:

NH Executive Council: One other special election didn't go the Democrats' way either on Tuesday night. Republican Joe Kenney narrowly defeated Democrat Mike Cryans, 52-48, for a seat on New Hampshire's five-member Executive Council, a unique body that has veto power over certain gubernatorial decisions. The district (numbered the 1st) had been held for ages by an old-school moderate New England Republican who died last year, and it actually went for Barack Obama 54-44. Democrats still retain a 3-2 majority on the council, though, and will get another crack at Kenney this fall, when they anticipate that turnout will be more favorable.

Grab Bag:

New Mexico: On Tuesday, the candidate filing deadline passed in three different states: New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. New Mexico will hold its primary on June 3, and the state has a list of candidates here.

Republican Gov. Susan Martinez is running for re-election and faces no primary opposition. Five Democrats are running against her: Attorney General Gary King (who is also the son of former Gov. Bruce King); state Sens. Linda Lopez and Howie Morales; former Albuquerque Chief Administrative Officer Lawrence Rael; and businessman Alan Webber. King is probably the highest-profile candidate, but Morales scored an important victory on Saturday by winning the party's pre-primary convention vote, earning him an automatic spot on the ballot. (King finished last, in fifth place, and will have to petition his way on, as will Lopez.) There's been zero horserace polling out of New Mexico, but Martinez appears to be as popular as ever. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Likely Republican.

There are a few competitive primaries for downballot statewide offices. Two Democrats are running against each other for the nomination for lieutenant governor. (New Mexico is one of a few states that nominates candidates for governor and lieutenant governor separately, but then has them run together in the general, known as a "shotgun wedding" system.) Three Democrats and one Republican are running in the open race for treasurer. In the race to succeed King as attorney general, two Republicans are running to face Democratic state Auditor and 2012 Senate candidate Hector Balderas in November. Each party is only fielding one candidate each for secretary of state, state auditor, and commissioner of public lands.

In the federal contests, Democratic Sen. Tom Udall and all three of the state's house members are running for re-election. None of them are facing any serious primary challengers, and Daily Kos Elections rates Udall and Democratic Reps. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Ben Ray Luján as safe in November.

Unlike his colleagues, 2nd District GOP Rep. Steve Pearce may have to fight to keep his seat. Pearce will face former Democratic Eddy County Commissioner Rocky Lara, who out-raised Pearce in the last fundraising quarter. Lara also got some good news Wednesday when her only primary opponent, attorney Leslie Endean-Singh, dropped out. Pearce still starts out as the clear favorite: This southern New Mexico district backed Romney 52-45, and Daily Kos Elections rates it as Likely Republican. (Jeff Singer)

Oregon: The Beaver state will hold its primary on May 20; the Oregonian has a list of candidates available.

Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber won a close race for his seat in 2010, but his re-election prospects in this blue state look good. Six Republicans are competing to take on Kitzhaber and the most credible one looks like state Rep. Dennis Richardson. Daily Kos Elections rates the race as Likely Democratic.

It's a similar story for freshman Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley, who won a tight race in 2008. Five Republicans are lining up to take him on. It looks like the main contenders will be surgeon Monica Wehby and state Rep. Jason Conger. We also rate this seat as Likely Democratic.

All five of Oregon's House members are seeking another term. Republican Rep. Greg Walden, the delegation's lone Republican and the head of the NRCC, is the only one to face a credible(ish) primary challenger. Democrats would undoubtedly love for Klamath County Commissioner Dennis Linthicum to at least distract Walden from his national campaign duties, but so far Linthicum's fundraising has been very unimpressive. In any case, Walden's reliably conservative second district will stay in Republican hands.

Most of the rest of the state's House seats are also expected to easily stay with the party that holds them. The one incumbent who looks to be in any danger is Democratic OR-05 Rep. Kurt Schrader. Three Republicans are running here: veteran Nathan Page; former congressional aide Ben Pollock; and Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith. Obama only won this Willamette Valley district 51-47, but Schrader has won re-election here three times in the past (including during the 2010 red wave). Daily Kos Elections rates the race as Likely Democratic. (Jeff Singer)

Pennsylvania: Like Oregon, the Keystone State will also hold its primary on May 20. The state provides a list of candidates here.

Republican Gov. Tom Corbett has racked up horrific approval ratings, due in large part to his handling of the Penn State football scandal and his cuts to education funding. So while many of his fellow Republicans may wish otherwise, Corbett is running again and faces only minor primary opposition.

Six Democrats are running to unseat the Governor: former state Department of Environmental Protection Secretaries John Hanger and Katie McGinty; Treasurer Rob McCord; Rep. Allyson Schwartz; former Auditor (and 2010 candidate) Jack Wagner; and wealthy businessman Tom Wolf. So far Wolf is the only candidate spending serious money and he has taken a lead in the polls, but it's still early. The winner of the Democratic primary will start out with the edge against Corbett: Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Lean Democratic.

As in New Mexico, lieutenant governor candidates are nominated in separate primaries, then paired with the party's gubernatorial nominee for the general. Republican Lt. Gov Jim Cawley has the unfortunate task of serving as Corbett's running mate, but faces no primary foe. Six Democrats, meanwhile, are running for the job: former Rep. Mark Critz; Harrisburg City Councilman Brad Koplinski; state Rep. Brandon Neuman; former Penn State assistant football coach Jay Paterno (the son of the late longtime coach Joe Paterno); Bradford County Commissioner Mark Smith; and state Sen. Mike Stack.

Of Pennsylvania's 18 House members, two are not running again. Sixth District GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach is retiring from his competitive suburban Philadelphia seat. On the Republican side, Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello has the field to himself. Two Democrats are facing off: physician and 2010 and 2012 nominee Manan Trivedi, and businessman Mike Parrish. Romney won PA-06 51-48, and Daily Kos Elections rates it as Lean Republican.

In the race to succeed Schwartz in PA-13, four Democrats are in. They are former Rep. (and Clinton-in-law) Marjorie Margolies; physician Val Arkoosh; state Rep. Brendan Boyle; and state Sen. Daylin Leach. This seat is rated as Safe Democratic. Obama won the district, which includes parts of Philadelphia and Montgomery County, 66-33.

Thanks to a fiendish Republican gerrymander, there aren't many competitive seats in this Democratic-leaning state. One exception is PA-08, located in Bucks County. Republican Rep. Michael Fitzpatrick faces two Democrats: veteran Kevin Strouse (who at one point had earned some DCCC love) and publishing company owner Shaughnessy Naughton (an EMILY's List endorsee). The district is very closely divided, with Romney carrying it by less than one tenth of a percent. However, Fitzpatrick is a tough opponent and easily won re-election in 2012. We rate the race as Likely Republican.

The rest of the state's delegation looks like they have little to worry about in either a primary or a general. In the safely red PA-09, Republican Rep. Bill Shuster has drawn the ire of some conservatives. However, Shuster faces a very poorly funded primary opponent in tea partier Art Halvorson and should easily win. (Jeff Singer)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  IA Sen Quinnipiac (8+ / 0-)

    Braley up 9-15, but only in the low 40s.  Obviously didn't push the leaners.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 05:17:00 AM PDT

  •  IA 2016 Quinnipiac (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, MartyM, itskevin, abgin

    Clinton leads by 10-16.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 05:18:52 AM PDT

    •  Mr. Brown must have been feeling a little bored (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mjd in florida

      .. to come up with this curiously unseasonal analogy:

      "Who said, 'All politics is local?' Secretary Clinton is benefitting from the fallout after a traffic jam a thousand miles away," said Brown. "When Quinnipiac University surveyed Iowans last December, Gov. Christopher Christie was the lead reindeer. But after the coverage of the George Washington Bridge lane closures, his nose is not so bright.
  •  Sink running again? Puhlease (9+ / 0-)

    If turnout is bad, one of the reasons is a bad candidate. In the case of a district candidate, moving to the district to run is one thing that makes you a bad candidate. It can be overcome and even negated, but there was already evidence that her issue judgment is off, her ability to appeal to voters is off, and that her experience really doesn't have loads to do with representing a district.

    During this special-election campaign cycle, the issue should have been the House itself, and in particular the House's GOP caucus. It was one thing to be represented by a longtime resident who was more conservative than the district. But a real campaign should have involved the idiocy of the 50 repeals, the midnight-oil rules change to limit discharge petition rights to Eric Cantor, to the 40 or so rabid dogs who drove the caucus into shutting down the government. The idiocy that "Boehner is a good man" should have been dropped as a convenient fiction and the case should have been made that he competes among - and might sink below - the worst Speaker ever. (Not saying he is; don't know the topic well enough. Good case though. Definitely the worst of my sentient lifetime - Rayburn, McCormack, Albert, Tip, Wright, etc.)

    Sink wsn't capable of such a campaign, and this was clear by her miserable campaign against Rick Scott. She played to his ads as surely as she played to Jolly's ads. Screw their ads. Attack the areas where we have the issue. Fred Harris once campaigned for the 76 Dem nomination by arguing that "The Issue is Privilige." No, he didn't win, but the issue sure did, because the exsact kind of candidate he thought he represented - non-racist Southerner, experience but not in office, populist with distinct skepticism toward liberal orthodoxy - did win because one of the issues really was privilege.

    The issue is the GOP. Let the GOP get away from that, and we give up turnout.

    Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

    by textus on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 05:29:17 AM PDT

    •  Democrats seem to have terrible ads (6+ / 0-)

      They need ads that list the specific positives about the ACA.

      "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

      by MartyM on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 05:37:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I really don't think the ACA was the issue (4+ / 0-)

        The issue should have been the shutdown. This was a special election just months after a faction within the House majority used that majority - that it held despite losing the vote aggregate because of state lege redistricting - to create chaos and become really unhappy with its leadership because it didn't create more chaos.

        The issue is that over the last 16 years the GOP has established itself as spectacularly unfit to govern. It has governed anyway, but it is so bad at this point - paraphrasing the old editor joke - that even the other Republicans are noticing. The entire meme of working together in Sink's campaign suggests that the national GOP is worth working with. It really isn't. Conservatives are. Conservatism isn't the problem. rightists are the problem. Rightests housed by the Koch/Super-PAC/Turdblossom/ALEC cage and fed unlimited lettuce.

        Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

        by textus on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 05:46:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Axelrod said it was - it boosted GOP turnout (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          textus

          Obama campaign guru said the ACA WAS a factor in the recent Dem loss in FL-13, in the sense that it motivated the base GOP vote to actually go to the polls on election day (or vote early).  

          I fear we are being naive to dismiss the negative impact the ACA is having on Democrats in 2014.

          What scares me is that GOP groups are already spending millions of dollars (with tens of millions more between now and election day in November) attacking vulnerable Senate Dems for supporting the ACA and for "lying" about people being able to keep their current plans if they like them.

          The GOP must have polling data on that point - the Dem vulnerability of the "you can keep your plan if you like it" misstatement by Obama.  Why else would they be spending so many millions of dollars to repeat that point?  Anyone who travels to those states - LA, NC, AR, AK - will hear the ads over and over and over - and we are still 7+ months out from election day.

          •  But polling data for now (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            textus, stevenaxelrod

            doesn't equal polling data 6 mos from now.

            So if they're spending all this money now, and 6 mos from now you've got insurance, it's not costing you very much, you get your diabetes medication paid for, your kid gets their asthma medicine, your cousin gets their cancer treated, the cancer that only got discovered because they could FINALLY get a regular physical, do you really think that attacking somebody's support for that is going to work?

            Because that's going to be the reality in 6 mos. It's not quite NOW, because signups aren't over and not everybody has gotten their plans yet.

            But in 6 mos they will. And they'll realize that it's not going to hurt them financially, not like the GOP screamed it would. Nor is it going to keep them from seeing their doctor.

            •  I think it's safe to say that pasuburbendem1 (0+ / 0-)

              is right, that the ACA will continue to be successfully used to bring out base and I guess near-base GOP votes. My point is that opposing that opposition head on is not going to in itself do the same thing with the dem base and near-base. For one thing, pundits are mostly wrong, but they're right that it is a more complicated and nuanced argument that the ACA should be maintained, is working well, will as with all programs work better over time if given a chance, and at the very worst needs some fixing a year or two from now.

              The issue to bring out our base and near base, I think, is income equality and the havoc it is wreaking on everything else. How a fairer wage woyuld decrease the deficit because it would put money in the hands of people who actually pay their taxes, that it would reduce safety-net expenses and in fact there is something immoral about small-government conservatives paying their workers so little that they have to rely on a government net. Etc.

              But the raw meat is the dystopia that is the modern GOP. It is the cowardice in the face of the pornographer LaPierre, the bullying involved in the George Washington Bridge closing, the Issaism that really manages to defame Joseph McCarthy by associating him with it, the schism between Randianism and Catholicism. I could go on, but I'm sure most here could as well. If we attack this beast, we will get turnout. If we don't, I am not certain we deserve turnout.

              Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

              by textus on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 10:23:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  They need to find some good (4+ / 0-)

        Populist issues and smack their opponent over the head with them.  Take for instance the need for a minimum wage increase, more money for our public schools, women's rights, etc.  Alex played defense again, for this entire election. "she does not learn".  

        I want her to take her Mayberry shtick back to her home in rural Tampa as it really doesn't fit in this district anyway.  Jessica Ehrlich deserves her chance on the ballot this time as she did credibly against Young before Israel bumped her out of this race to move Sink here.  Jessica's not a wish-washy corporate, big banker,  She is a "native" St Pete attorney, just like Crist.

        Alex can watch Charlie Crist win his district 13 this fall with a "Proud" populist message that he will take statewide and maybe he can bring Jessica along with him.  It helps that he is a people person and that he knows his voters.

        •  Yes (4+ / 0-)

          but she is going to have to be a better campaigner than she was in 2012. I get that she might have beat someone other than Young, but she didn't beat Young and it will take finesse to avoid giving Jolly any glow from winning this one.

          I wouldn't run away from the ACA, but in part6icular I would run against the entity that has sunk at points to a nine percent approval rating, the House GOP Caucus. Hit it on every front, as corrupt, incompetent, ideologically too rigid to participate in American democracy et. I would hesitate to use the un-American adjective, but I wouldn't stop that short of it.

          This can win, I think, all along the I-4 corridor, but only if the op is seized.

          Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

          by textus on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 07:02:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I believe it has to be specific issues (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MartyM, textus

            that personally effect the pocketbook and the voter's well-being but anything's better than being apologetic and defensive all of the time.

            •  You're right I'm sure, but an issues only (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mjd in florida

              argument gives the GOP a false standing. This isn't a case of "minimum wage increase good/bad because a/b. No matter what the GOP says, even if it professed ideas, even if it professed good ideas, its reality is a dystopic mess.

              Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

              by textus on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 07:22:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Young won by 15 points over Ehrlich (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mjd in florida

          Do you think she could do better against Jolly?
          November election will be interesting AFTER he cast votes WITH the other
          Do Nothing Republicans.

          "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

          by MartyM on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 07:21:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Crist will get wide support (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MartyM, stevenaxelrod

            here and maybe he can pull her along,  It hurts that she didn't run against Jolly and he can now play the experienced incumbent.  This situation is now making me sick even though I accepted by last week-end that Alex was again losing her lead by not motivating the base.

        •  Public schools won't drive it. Minimum wage might. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mjd in florida

          But tie those pols to transportation funding, to major roads being repaired, to potholes being fixed, and then you might get some traction.

          Potholes on 95? Blame xxx - he voted AGAINST the transportation bill.

          Is it true? Probably not exactly. But a lot of the state funding for road upkeep comes from the feds, especially for the interstates, and if you can tie any politician to potholes, they lose.

    •  Alex Sink is a symptom (4+ / 0-)

      The disease is that deep down, dems don't want to win because they don't want to give up Wall Street cash so they'll be exposed as frauds if they gain power.

  •  Steve Israel should resign from the DCCC (6+ / 0-)

    The fact that he wants Alex Sink to run again is proof that he's not even trying to win back control of the House.

  •  Freedom's Defense Fund's future ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, Otteray Scribe

    If David Trott wins the primary and runs against a Democrat in the general, Freedom's Defense Fund will air a new ad blaming the eviction of Texana Hollis on President Obama.

    Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfu*king snows on this motherfu*king plain!

    by shoeless on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 06:07:23 AM PDT

    •  It's noteworthy that Trott has received a big (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shoeless, nimh

      campaign donation from Donald Trump.  But Bobby MacKenzie, the Dem candidate in the Bentivolio district 11 needs to ramp up his resume and name recognition.  He's doing door-to-door and small group meetings, but it seems to me he needs more name recognition BEFORE the door-to-door so folks have some idea who he is and will want to talk to him on their porches.

      Building a better America with activism, cooperation, ingenuity and snacks.

      by judyms9 on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 06:31:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Adios Jan; don't let the door hit you on the ass! (0+ / 0-)
  •  I just have one question on this "Forclosure King' (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    emobile, Jorge Harris, mmacdDE, Gygaxian

    does he have a meticulously waxed, curled mustache to twirl properly?

    We have no desire to offend you -- unless you are a twit!

    by ScrewySquirrel on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 06:26:54 AM PDT

  •  NM-02: Pearce could get WIPP'd (0+ / 0-)

    The radiation leak at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) could slightly rock the outcome in that district.  

    Rep. Steve Pearce (R) has been a brainless booster of WIPP, even advocating expansion of the program to receive heavier duty waste, so he's been caught totally flat-footed by the crisis.  

    The plant was supposed to never leak radiation and now 13 workers are contaminated and surrounding communities like Carlsbad are slightly concerned, to put it mildly.

    "And, once again, the forces of niceness and goodness have triumphed over the forces of evil and rottenness." --Maxwell Smart

    by emobile on Thu Mar 13, 2014 at 08:03:17 AM PDT

  •  Bentovilio supports Russia evicting Ukraine... (0+ / 0-)

    ...from the Crimea. He was one of two Michigan Representatives who voted against the $1 billion aid package for the Ukraine.

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  Regarding David Trott vulture capitalist from Mich (0+ / 0-)

    I dealt with him during the housing crisis.  He represented Litton Loan, a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs.  He got me good.  Hope bad things happen to him.  He certainly deserves that.

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