Skip to main content

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds a Global Town Townterview at the Newseum in Washington January 29, 2013. The Townterview, a mix of a town hall and television interview, is Clinton's 59th such meeting which comes just before her last day as S
First, the good news for Hillary Clinton in the latest Quinnipiac Poll of Iowa voters on the 2016 presidential contest: She beats all Republicans tested by double-digit margins. The survey, conducted March 5-10, has a margin of error of ±2.6 points and tested the following matchups (December results):
Hillary Clinton: 49 (45)
Rand Paul: 39 (44)

Hillary Clinton: 48 (40)
Chris Christie: 35 (45)

Hillary Clinton: 51 (47)
Jeb Bush: 37 (40)

Hillary Clinton: 51 (48)
Ted Cruz: 35 (41)

As you can see, Clinton's standing improved in each matchup tested by Quinnipiac: A net of 9 points against Paul, 18 points against Christie, 7 points against Bush, and 9 points against Cruz.

And that brings us to the bad news for Chris Christie: The thing that really stands out from the trends is that Christie's drop was significantly bigger than the others, well outside the poll's margin of error, illustrating the fact that his political fortunes really have taken a blow in the wake of his scandals back home.

More evidence of this drop from the poll: By a 41-36 margin, Iowans say he would not be a good president, down from 46-30 margin in December who said he would be a good president. That's a net drop of 21 points in just three months—brutal, to put it simply.

9:06 AM PT: Obviously, Christie's problems aren't limited to Iowa, but this was something of a surprise: His favorability rating is upside down among Republicans nationally in the latest WSJ/NBC poll. 23 percent rate him positively and 29 percent negatively, a net drop of 18 points from January. Chuck Todd and Mark Murray write:

Folks, when is the last time someone viewed as a presidential contender had a net-negative rating WITH HIS OWN PARTY? Yes, it’s possible Christie can recover; you never say never in politics. But Christie’s prospects right now are much worse than some in the political community realize. And that’s before all the investigations into his administration run their full course.
That pretty much sums it up. The equation here is simple: Christie wasn't terribly popular with Republicans even before the scandals thanks to their hateful response to his decision to work with President Obama after Hurricane Sandy. But they still treated him as a contender because they thought he had crossover appeal. But now he doesn't, and he really doesn't have any viable path to get it back, absent another crisis for him to manage. So now, if he wants to run for president, he's going to need a new playbook—and that probably means moving far to the right. It's possible that could work in terms of winning the nomination, but it would seal his defeat in the general. Whatever happens, the odds of him becoming president are dramatically smaller now than they were last November.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site