Cross-posted at ACA Signups
Follow-up from last night's post on Saturday's HC.gov enrollment: The final number ended up being over 40,000:
Enrollment on March 15 at 2pm on the ACA website was 15,000 and counting.

UPDATED – As of 12:01 AM, March 16, 2014, Over 40,000 people signed up on healthcare.gov Saturday and made the deadline for insurance to be effective April 1, 2014.

UPDATED - As of 6:26 PM – Around 23,000 so far for today have enrolled for healthcare.  Almost 300,000 people logged into the healthcare.gov website today, Saturday, March 15, 2014.

Through Friday, I had the daily average for QHP enrollments at around 43,000 (up from the 33.7K/day in February).

Last night I assumed that the total HC.gov enrollments for Saturday (3/15) wold end up being around 32K based on the 6:30pm total of 23K.

However, it looks like the rate increased dramatically in the final 5.5 hours of the day (I forgot that was 6:30pm Eastern time...presumably folks in Central and Mountain added more to the numbers, along with Nevada and Alaska; California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii all run their own exchanges).

So...40K at HC.gov...but again, that doesn't inlcude the state-run exchanges, which made up 28% of the total enrollments in February...meaning HC.gov made up 72% of the total. A little simple math gives us:

—40K / X = 72 / 100
—4M / X = 72
—4M / 72 = X
—X = 55,555

So, assuming that the state exchanges operate at a similar ratio to the federal one as they did in February (which may not prove to be the case), the total for yesterday in particular should have been around 55,500 enrollments nationally.

One caveat: It's possible that this also includes Medicaid enrollments; Ms. Ryan didn't mention one way or the other. I suspect that this is QHPs only, however, which would make this a very good sign.

As a reminder, March's QHP enrollments will have to average over 59,000/day in order to hit the 6 million point. However, I have that average down as around 43,000/day for the first half of the month, which means it'll have to average around 75,000/day in the second half to average out to 59K.

UPDATE: Contributor Javier Anderson points out that the odds are that the 72/28 ratio between the Federal and State exchanges is likely not to hold steady in March. The ratio has been shifting in HC.gov's favor steadily since the disasterous October launch fo the Federal website; for the first 2 months, the state exchanges (well, most of them) had a huge leg up. Here's the ratios month to month:

October:

—79,391 State / 26,794 Fed / 106,185 Total
74.8% State / 25.2% Federal

November:

—148,087 State / 110,410 Fed / 258,497 Total
57.3% State / 42.7% Federal

December:

—729,513 State / 1,059,226 Fed / 1,788,739 Total
40.8% State / 59.2% Federal

January:

—402,913 State / 743,158 Fed / 1,146,071 Total
35.2% State / 64.8% Federal

February:

—261,335 State / 681,498 Fed / 942,833 Total
27.7% State / 72.3% Federal

Based on this trend (17.5% shift, 16.5% shift, 5.6% shift, 7.5% shift), it's more likely that March's ratio will be more along the lines of a 23% / 76% ratio, which would make yesterday more like:

—40K / X = 76 / 100
—4M / X = 76
—4M / 76 = X
X = 52,632

However, that's a huge unknown. Perhaps the ratio shift has bottomed out. Perhaps the outreach efforts in California, New York and other state-run exchanges has ramped up more intensely than the HC.gov effort. However, props to Javier for pointing this out; he's probably correct that it's going to have shifted even more towards the Federal exchange to some degree.

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### YAY for the ACA!(7+ / 0-)

Thanks for the update, and for your hard work!

Reach out your hand if your cup be empty, If your cup is full may it be again

• ##### Thanks for the update(7+ / 0-)

I have the site link bookmarked as it is by far is the most reliable source of any others, especially MSM.  They're more concerned about the politics, who's up and who's down, regardless of what happens to people who need health care.

What was truly amazing was what I saw yesterday afternoon while channel surfing.  There was the following heading below the Faux Financial News saying:

"Obamacare on life support".
I'm assuming they were talking about the percentage of young people enrolled or results of the special election in FL.  (I didn't take time to listen to the right wing bullshit.)  But are these people really that delusional to consider 5 million people in QHP alone as insignificant?  I suppose if you got millions to burn as do right wing TV hosts and the Koch bros, nothing else matters.
FWIW, I think the Kochs could care less about healthcare as an issue.  It's just a means of achieving another goal, electing more teabaggers in Congress.   IMHO, what they really want is to destroy what's remaining of social security, medicare and programs for the poor to further reduce their taxes, plus gut any environmental regulations that reduce their corporate profits.

Mr. Boehner, where are the jobs?

• ##### Huge day yesterday(4+ / 0-)

Here's hoping for even bigger ones in the next couple weeks!

• ##### I was one of them.(5+ / 0-)

Saturday was the last day to get coverage starting April 1.  My agent, who made it sound as though he could do so much for me, hadn't called back after three days, so, having decided upon a plan, I called the number at healthcare.gov and asked them to sign me up.

They said the insurer would contact me for payment in 48-72 hours--fingers crossed this is real this time--but that I'd made the deadline for coverage to start April 1.

It has been a battle getting this far.  I wonder what proportion of people have this much trouble, and if some of those don't make it under the wire March 31, if they'll try again next year.

that art thou

• ##### During college basketball conference tournament(6+ / 0-)

finals yesterday, I saw a great ad for an insurance company which emphasized that the enrollment period was coming to a close. Great ad. Great placement.

• ##### Thanks again(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Brainwrap

For the cogent analysis, Brainwrap.

"Wealthy men can't live in an island that is encircled by poverty. We all breathe the same air. We must give a chance to everyone, at least a basic chance." - Ayrton Senna