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Leading Off:

NH-Sen: After months and months of head-fakes, teases, and dilly-dallying, former Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown—who famously lost his seat to Democrat Elizabeth Warren two years ago—will apparently try and keep his political career alive one state to the north. Brown grew up in Massachusetts and served in both the state House and state Senate before his improbable special election victory in 2010 that sent him to the U.S. Senate, but now he's hiking up to New Hampshire to form an exploratory committee for a challenge to freshman Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

This wouldn't have even been an option for Brown were New Hampshire Republicans not in such disarray. But all of the highest-profile potential GOP candidates long ago gave up the idea of running against the well-funded and reasonably popular Shaheen, leaving a big opening. Brown, though, is as Boston as they come, so he's gone to great lengths to emphasize his thin Granite State ties. Amusingly, he once even called New Hampshire "a second home" because he was "born at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard"—which is actually located in Kittery, Maine.

In an attempt to solidify his standing, Brown and his wife relocated to New Hampshire, where they'd owned a vacation house, and sold their Massachusetts home late last year, all while claiming the move was for "strictly personal" (and not political) reasons. This sort of drawn-out game-playing wore very thin on local Republicans, who longed for a clear answer from the prevaricating Bay Stater, but undoubtedly all will soon be forgiven, because it's not like they have any better choices.

But can Scott Brown actually win? He certainly has strong name recognition; much of New Hampshire is in the orbit of the Boston media market, where he was always prominent during his short Senate tenure. And he's also a prolific fundraiser, so even with a late start, he shouldn't have trouble raising money. The polling, however, has been somewhat mixed and variable: In January, for instance, PPP showed Shaheen with just a 3-point lead, but last month, that had widened back out to 8 points. A couple of other recent surveys have found Brown back by double digits.

And, of course, there's the dreaded carpetbagger label. Sometimes it can prove deadly to a campaign, but often its importance gets exaggerated. New Hampshirites can be a bit prickly about their identity, though, forever in the shadow of their larger neighbor to the south. And while committed Republicans are apt to overlook Brown's origins, some independent voters (who make up the largest contingent of the New Hampshire electorate) may not feel as charitable. Indeed, Democratic allies have already run ads slamming Brown for "shopping for a Senate seat," suggesting that this may be a potent line of attack.

One thing is certain, though: At the very least, assuming Brown follows through on this whole "exploratory" business, Shaheen will have to work much harder than she would have against any of the Republican also-rans considering this race. And it's also possible that national Democratic groups will have to spend money on New Hampshire that they otherwise didn't anticipate having to spend. That will make life tougher for Democrats nationally, given that the party already faces a very difficult set of elections across the country on which control of the Senate depends.

But Scott Brown isn't running just to take one for the team. He almost surely has polling showing him with a path to victory, and this exploratory committee is very probably just some more kabuki, since he's unlikely to jump this far in only to jump back out (though you never know). Shaheen remains the favorite, but this won't be easy if Brown commits, and Democrats will have to remain vigilant in order to keep this seat blue.

Race Ratings:

We're once again implementing a schedule of regular race ratings updates, which you can expect on Fridays (assuming we have changes to make in a given week, which often won't be the case this early in the cycle). This week, we're changing seven ratings: three Senate, two gubernatorial, and two House. Overall, four are in favor of Democrats and three are in favor of Republicans. Read on for our explanations in each case.

AR-Sen: Tossup to Lean R. For a long time, it's been evident that Sen. Mark Pryor is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for re-election in 2014, and the reason is simple: demographics. Arkansas is simply playing catch-up with the rest of the South, which preceded it in galloping to the right. In 2010, five of the state's six members of Congress were Democrats; now Pryor is the last standing. And it wasn't merely that year's towering GOP wave that did the party in: Republicans took control of both chambers of the legislature in 2012, despite brand-new Democratic gerrymanders.

Republicans also landed a top-tier recruit in freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, a Harvard-educated attorney who served in Afghanistan and Iraq with the Army. Cotton's also been fortunate to avoid any tea party-fueled primary opponents. Pryor, meanwhile, is simply hampered by the fact that he sports a "D" after his name, and unhappiness over Obamacare is a difficult thing to contend with in Arkansas, given how red the state is.

The race certainly isn't over yet, and the national mood could still improve. But the polling has never been any good for Pryor, who is stuck in the low 40s at best. However, at this point, the incumbent is now the decided underdog, and if Pryor manages to win a third term, it would be an upset.

KY-Sen: Likely R to Lean R. We've struggled with Kentucky's Senate race all cycle. On the one hand, the polls have shown Republican Senate Minority Leader pretty much tied with his Democratic challenger, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. On the other hand, it's Kentucky, an almost implacably red state on the federal level and one that's particularly hostile to Barack Obama. But it's possible for longtime politicians to wear out their welcome even in the most hospitable environs, and there's evidently a deep undercurrent of disgust toward McConnell among many voters.

Grimes is still not an especially experienced candidate, though she's shown some pretty serious fundraising chops. If the race were about her, she'd have no hope, but luckily for Grimes, it's really all about McConnell, and that's a serious problem for the incumbent—enough for us to move this to Lean R. At this point, though, McConnell's still the favorite, thanks to Kentucky's demographics, and Grimes has a much bigger hill yet to climb to get this race to tossup status, but it's not impossible.

TX-Sen: Race to Watch to Safe R. Steve Stockman, we hardly knew ye. Visit again soon!

HI-Gov: Safe D to Likely D. Hawaii is a notoriously difficult state to poll, but several different surveys have shown Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie with soft approvals and looking strangely weak for re-election. What's more, former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, the 2010 GOP nominee who'd been considering a rematch, quietly launched his campaign in recent weeks. Aiona somehow failed to net a single news story about his kick-off, and Abercrombie remains the favorite, but despite Hawaii's deep blue hue, this one bears watching.

Abercrombie also has a Democratic primary challenger, state Sen. David Ige, and even though Ige is little-known and doesn't have much money, polling has also shown him surprisingly close to the governor. An upset in the primary would almost be more remarkable, but again, Hawaii can be a confusing back of tricks, so keep an eye on this aspect of the race, too.

WI-Gov: Likely R to Lean R. The Democrats' very disappointing performance in the 2010 Wisconsin recall had us soured on the party's chances of knocking off GOP Gov. Scott Walker in this fall's regularly scheduled election. But even though all the big names were scared off, Democrats managed to land a pretty solid recruit in Madison School Board member Mary Burke, who has the ability to self-fund. Polling has shown the race quite tight, and perhaps even more notably, the RGA has already started to advertise here on Walker's behalf. It could merely be a pre-emptive move rather than a true sign of worry, but even if it's the former, that still indicates there's something going on.

That said, the recall really seemed to polarize Wisconsin voters sharply in terms of their feelings about Walker, and it's very hard to imagine that anyone's truly undecided at this point. Still, this contest is feeling more competitive than we'd initially anticipated.

CA-16: Likely D to Safe D. Democrat Rep. Jim Costa is one lazy sonofabitch, nearly losing in 2010 to an unheralded Republican and costing Democrats a seat in 2012 by refusing to run in the new district that contained the vast majority of his former constituents and instead seeking a safer seat. So he's not someone you can ever trust, which is why we started him off in the Likely D column this year. But even Costa probably can't screw this one up, given how feeble his Republican opponents look. Though don't worry: If it looks like he might, we'll be sure to change our rating back.

WV-03: Lean D to Tossup. West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District is confounding. On the one hand, when it comes to state and local races, it's the most ancestrally Democratic of the state's three seats, and deeply so, even today. It was also Sen. Joe Manchin's best district in 2012; he won it 65-32. On the other hand, it's galloped rightward on the presidential level, going for Mitt Romney by a punishing 65-33 margin. The question for Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall was always where on the wide Manchin-Obama spectrum he'd fall this year.

Without Obama at the top of the ticket, it was plausible to imagine that the 3rd would return to form and embrace Rahall once again after his unusually close 8-point shave last cycle. But that doesn't seem to be the case. Republicans convinced state Sen. Evan Jenkins to switch parties, giving them their strongest candidate against Rahall in many a year, and a recent GOP poll showed Jenkins with a 14-point lead. He probably isn't up by that sort of margin, but Rahall glaringly refused to share his own internal polling data while merely insisting it didn't look like Jenkins'.

That's typically a big tell, the political equivalent of Sherlock Holmes' dog that didn't bark. Democrats haven't given up on Rahall yet, but as in Arkansas, the times are a-changin' in West Virginia. Rahall's going to have a very tough time remaining in office, but even if he does survive this fall, this seat will flip to the GOP before too long


CO-Sen: According to Politico, Americans for Prosperity is reserving $850,000 in airtime in Colorado, where Democratic Sen. Mark Udall is up for re-election. The group isn't commenting, though, and they haven't released any ads yet.

NC-Sen: Greg Brannon better not have been planning to self-fund his campaign a whole bunch. The tea partying physician and Republican Senate hopeful just got hit with a civil judgment awarding $450,000 to two investors he mislead about a tech company he helped create. (Brannon says he'll appeal.) Of course, we don't actually know how much Brannon is worth because—surprise—he's failed to file his personal financial disclosure forms, as required by law. I'm guessing, though, that a half-million bucks would be a fair chunk of change for him.


MI-12: The odds of a competitive Democratic primary in Michigan's 12th District were already slim, and now they've grown slimmer. EMILY's List has endorsed activist Debbie Dingell, wife of retiring Rep. John Dingell.

VA-10: Democratic attorney Richard Bolger has dropped out of the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Frank Wolf and has endorsed Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust, calling him the party's "strongest choice." Last month, college professor Karen Schultz also declined to run, making Foust the nominee by default. Republicans will conduct a so-called "firehouse" primary on April 26 to select their standard-bearer, with Del. Barbara Comstock looking like the front-runner.

Grab Bag:

Census: We've written before about how the Census Bureau is starting to address the difficulties that result from asking about Hispanic origins on census forms in a separate question about ethnicity, rather than as part of their question on race. That forces Hispanics to select a racial category like "white," "black," "some other race," or two or more of the above, in addition to choosing "Hispanic" as an ethnic identity—a choice some may not want to make, or may simply find confusing.

Now it sounds like the bureau is actually moving ahead on plans to consolidate the topic into a single combined race and ethnicity question for 2020; they've done preliminary studies and will introduce it on the American Community Survey in 2016. (Question wording for the decennial count will need still congressional approval, though, so this could become a political football in the latter part of the decade.)

Initial research has been pretty encouraging: Using a combined question hasn't resulted in fewer people identifying as Hispanic, and it also hasn't diminished the number of persons identifying as both African-American and Hispanic (most commonly Dominicans), which was a particular concern. It did greatly reduce use of the catch-all "some other race" category to under 1 percent of respondents, and most beneficially, it decreased the overall number of people who simply didn't respond to the race and ethnicity questions at all. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  MI Sen: Peters 40 Land 37 (7+ / 0-)

    Not familiar with pollster.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 05:14:01 AM PDT

    •  A slight reversal (0+ / 0-)

      but still good to see after several polls that showed Land (barely) up.  Still a lot of undecideds.  Maybe there's a backlash building to the dishonest Koch/Boonstra ads?

      I found it somewhat ironic to see Peters listed as "D-Bloomfield Hills", that being the posh Republican suburb where Mitt Romney grew up.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:16:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Scotty should think ahead. Move to Pa. after 2014 (0+ / 0-)

    and lose to Governor Schwartz in 2018 or Kathleen Kane for ag (who, btw, is being attacked in HUGE frontpage headlines in the continuing its rightward drift Philadelphia Inquirer. The charge itself, cancelling probes into Phila. democrats corruption, is a viable critique, but the way presented in the paper is almost Fox Newsish.
    The Headline is like 6,000 feet tall in thick black print. (Real subtle).

                  THAT SNARED CITY POLLS

    And Monday's Inquirer features the always enjoyable and inciteful Charles Krauthammer.s insights.

    •  another take on Kane's decision (0+ / 0-)
      3/16/14...HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) - Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane on Sunday defended her office's decision not to pursue criminal charges in an investigation into whether four Democratic state lawmakers from Philadelphia accepted illegal payments.

      "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

      by MartyM on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:41:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kane.....laughingstock? (0+ / 0-)

        I read the articles, and having been an Attorney with the City of Philadelphia long ago I'm very familiar with the fun n' games among city politicians.

        Here, four black Democratic politicians accepted - on tape - cash and gifts.  Allegedly from the tapes, it was pretty clear that it was "in appreciation" for voting certain ways.

        The Republicans who were approached turned down the money.

        Kane killed the investigation and then charged it was racist.

        Given the rest of Pennsylvania's already low opinion of Philly, this is the sort of thing that kills political careers.

    •  Brown doesn't stand a chance (0+ / 0-)

      I think David is underestimating the whole carpetbagger thing in New Hampshire, and also Brown's overall cluelessness.   If he were running for Governor of Massachusetts, that would be one thing; he's still pretty well liked, and given our habit of electing Republicans to the Corner Office, I'd give him even odds or better.  But this is such a blatant case of "I can't get elected in Massachusetts so I'll state-shop" that I don't see him having much traction.

      This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

      by Ellid on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:18:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Brown won't be the only carpetbagger (10+ / 0-)

    There will be volunteers, like myself, who worked on the Warren campaign and live near the NH border.  In fact, I am only one mile from the border and do a lot of shopping in NH.  I have a friend in the closest town who is a state representative.  

    Yep, I'll be there.

    R.I.P., Amy Winehouse

    by jarbyus on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 05:44:08 AM PDT

  •  Brown will have to get through Bob Smith first. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Stude Dude, pademocrat

    The latter has been a Senator and probably more the liking of GOP primary voters these days.  I'm not sure carpetbagging needs to be that big a deal.  We're a mobile society.  People move all the time, including to find work.

    •  Didn't Smith leave the GOP? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      That isn't going to make him too popular either. Although he has always lived there I think.

      •  Smith vs Brown - more popcorn please (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Vatexia, Ellid, Christopher Walker

        Not only did Smith leave the GOP, he left New Hampshire, both in a bit of a huff if I recall correctly.  I think he moved to Florida and entered a race there, so he had defined himself as a Florida resident.  He was out of the current Senate race before he was in, which turns out to be part of Smith's political persona.  The premise that Smith will be able to sell his ties to the Granite State more effectively than will Brown is right though.  For a party that prides itself on its managerial expertise, these guys couldn't manage a birthday party.

        •  If there's one candidate (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ellid, salmo

          who probably can't use Smith's time "away" effectively, it's Scott Brown. The last thing he wants is to invite a detailed discussion of ties to New Hampshire.

          “Republicans...think American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people... And they admire of Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.” Harry S. Truman

          by fenway49 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:36:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Smith lived in Florida for many years. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        And tried to run for Senate there in 2004 and 2010, although he dropped out both times after having next to none support in the polls.

    •  Smith (0+ / 0-)

      Smith is a joke. Brown will demolish him.

      Good girls shop. Bad girls shop. Shoppin', shoppin' from A to Z!

      by Zornorph on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:21:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Brown is a national celebrity (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        He is still very popular on the Right, and gets a pass from the Tea Party to maintain his moderate creds.  He will be very formidable.  Plus, he will get a ton of Fox News support and Koch money help.

        Lets not revise history.  As late as late summer 2012, Brown was still ahead of Elizabeth Warren, and some on here were writing her obituary.  I remember one front-page diarist saying something along the lines of "...well, it seems that Warren won't be able to overcome Brown's personal charisma and popularity".  I still think Warren is only in the Senate because of MA disdain for Romney and Obama's re-election coinciding with her run.  Now, she is an icon.  In 2012, not so much.  This is a midterm, low Dem turnout election, without Obama on the ticket, and Shaheen has less liberal support than Warren.

        Brown will be a formidable candidate, and very much can win.  Afterall, George W. Bush won NH in one of his elections (2000?).  NH is not nearly as reliably Dem as the rest of NE.

        As for the carpetbagger thing, I think its overrated.  Hillary did the exact same thing.  She couldn't have been elected dog catcher in Arkansas in 2000, so she moved to NY.  Why is this any different?


        •  Big, big difference (0+ / 0-)

          New York has a history of non-resident Senators (like RFK) and never changed their laws to require a residency requirement.   It's also much, much less insular and clannish than New Hampshire.


          This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

          by Ellid on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:45:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The Sam Seder Show (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    It's called The Majority Report.  He and Janeane Garofolo started it way back in they day.

    They do some great ribbing on Scott Brown.  If I can get a clip of them doing their Scott Brown Schtick, I'll post it.  


    by otto on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:04:45 AM PDT

  •  Centerfold Senator is a condescending prick to (7+ / 0-)

    women. And a serial liar, like when he said that he had been defending women since he was 6 years old (rolls eyes). And a racist, because he never really appropriately condoned all those tomahawk chop chanting douche nozzles taunting Elizabeth Warren.

    The other factor is that New Hampshire Teahadi, especially the moronic Free State Project, hate him. If he wins the nomination, they will find a third party candidate or not vote. This is ironic because Tea Anderthal support helped him win. Having a special election on a day that a foot of snow fell in suburban Boston also helped. As did having the insipid Martha Coakley, the worst statewide candidate in the Commonwealth since Shannon O'Brien (against Willard M. Romney).

    Please proceed Snotty. Are you bringing back your fake truck and barn jacket as props? Good luck with that.

    •  I couldn't have cared less about Scott's modeling (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, The Caped Composer, Ellid

      days. But I cared a lot about how a few years ago, it was a non-issue, or one to be chuckled at and then dismissed. Let a Dem candidate have that in his past and the Mighty Wurlitzer would have featured 24/7 fulminations about "What does this say about his moral character?" and "WHAT will we tell the CHILDREN?" and "Family values! Family values! Family values!"

      Effing Republican hypocrites.

    •  Is Scott Brown pro-choice? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, fenway49

      He claimed to support women's rights, but at the same time he backed the Blunt Amendment, which undercut his selling point there.

      •  My hope is that (0+ / 0-)

        he's too pro-choice for NH's Tea Party folks, even if he's not pro-choice enough for, say, me.

        “Republicans...think American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people... And they admire of Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.” Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:52:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Unclear (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        He backed the Blunt Amendment, then turned around and was just about the only Republican to break ranks and denounce Rush Limbaugh for slut-shaming Sandra Fluke.  He has daughters, his wife has always worked, but I simply can't tell.  

        As for the centerfold thing...if Warren had done exactly the same thing, for exactly the same reason, she would have gotten creamed.  So would any woman in American politics.  That is what annoyed me so much about Brown's election:  it was cute that he was Cosmo's Man of the Year, yet if his name had been Sally and he'd been a Playmate, he not only wouldn't have a political career, it's possible he wouldn't have been allowed to sit for the bar on the grounds of moral turpitude.

        This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

        by Ellid on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:24:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  not a lot of good news David (0+ / 0-)

    Arkansas is particularly depressing news.

    KOS: "Mocking partisans focusing on elections? Even less reason to be on Daily Kos."

    by fcvaguy on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:21:58 AM PDT

  •  I guess the work just isn't there being a "face" (0+ / 0-)

    for selling men's underwear.

    Recessions hit everybody hard.

    “My soul is from elsewhere, I'm sure of that, and I intend to end up there." - Rumi

    by LamontCranston on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:41:14 AM PDT

  •  Los Angeles had a little shaker today (0+ / 0-)

    4.7 magnitude epicenter in Westwood.

    A reminder that we live in earthquake country.

    Some blackouts.  No deaths.  But it did wake me up.

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:43:41 AM PDT

  •  At least Brown won't have to remember which (4+ / 0-)

    baseball hat to wear when he is in public, like some other notorious carpet baggers.   That's solid Red Sox country, too.  

    If you get confused, listen to the music play - R. Hunter

    by SpamNunn on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:47:29 AM PDT

  •  on Brown moving to New Hampshire (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I don't know about New Hampshire, but my friends in Maine have a word for pushy people from Massachusetts:  Massholes.  He's not likely to find that warm a welcome.

    "Wouldn't you rather vote for what you want and not get it than vote for what you don't want - and get it?" Eugene Debs. "Le courage, c'est de chercher la verité et de la dire" Jean Jaures

    by Chico David RN on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:04:40 AM PDT

  •  Dammit. (0+ / 0-)
    Initial research has been pretty encouraging: Using a combined question hasn't resulted in fewer people identifying as Hispanic, and it also hasn't diminished the number of persons identifying as both African-American and Hispanic (most commonly Dominicans), which was a particular concern. It did greatly reduce use of the catch-all "some other race" category to under 1 percent of respondents, and most beneficially, it decreased the overall number of people who simply didn't respond to the race and ethnicity questions at all. (David Jarman)
    So they're still not going to give me the proper choice of "human"?

    -7.75 -4.67

    "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

    There are no Christians in foxholes.

    by Odysseus on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:08:49 AM PDT

    •  "Human" is meaningless data (0+ / 0-)

      "Human" is a species, not a race.  The census bureau assumes that all persons in the survey are in fact human, so reporting "human" when they ask for your race is both pointless and incorrect.

      What they want to know is the ethnocultural subgroup of humans with which you most closely identify, or (barring that), in which most reasonable observers would classify you.

      I suppose the truly incorrigibly anti-label crowd will have to continue to be satisfied with "Some other race", but the repeated agitation for an inaccurate and unhelpful "human" option is getting tiresome.

  •  Brown almost makes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    shameless, ambitious pandering and carpetbagging look like a virtue.




    ... and only to Republicans.

  •  White Latinos (0+ / 0-)
    Despite concerns that the combined question would lead to less data about Afro-Latinos, the proportion of Hispanics who also reported as black was not statistically different in the separate-question or combined-question format, bureau officials said.
    But what about the proportion of Hispanics who also reported as white?  I assume that went down precipitously.  And in doing so, we now lack information on the racial makeup of white Latinos.  Who is helped by this?
  •  If nothing else,... (0+ / 0-)

    Brown and the GOP have created yet another competitive Senate race for a Dem seat where there was none, before.  A year ago, I felt pretty good about the Dems holding the Senate, but now, not so much.  I think four seats are already lost:


    That means they need two more to take over.  There are at least four more seriously competitive races:


    And, now, you add NH.  That means the GOP only needs to win 2 of those five to take over the Senate and make Obama's and liberals lives miserable for the next two years.  And, don't put your eggs in KY and GA.  Those are very red states, especially in midterms and off-year turnout elections.  Barring any dumb rape talk, the like, that will save McConnell and the GA seat for the GOP.  I don't see any other seats where the GOP is even sweating.

    Brown in NH makes things worse for the left.  Seriously worse.

    •  Oh, and don't forget Colorado (0+ / 0-)

      The most recent polling I saw of Udall did not have him exactly comfortable.  The Kochs can see that, and have made that big ad buy.  Depending on who the GOP nominates, this seat could easily join that list of five, and make six.  Then, the GOP only needs to bat .333 to win the Senate.  Hell, Miguel Cabrera hits better than that against major league pitching.

    •  Scott Brown will get as much traction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, Ellid

      as Gillespie in VA.  

      If the vote was held in the beltway Brown would likely win.  But since it isn't, Brown will likely get creamed.  

      Also I'm not really convinced that Udall is in that much danger and I think the GOP is in real danger of losing KY and GA.  

      That would mean the GOP would have to win not just AR, WV, SD and MT but also NC, LA, MI and AK.  MI is not a certain thing by any means and Peters with less name recognition is ahead.   The GOP would have to run the table.  Not even Ty Cobb or Teddy Baseball hit that high.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:13:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If the"Beltway" determined elections (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        then Republicans would win virtually everything, with the possible exception of 2008 (and that would have been a toss up.). Those people are seriously stuck in a 1984 time warp.

        And by Beltway, I mean the political press corps and commentariat, not most of the actual voters inside the Beltway, who are overwhelmingly Democratic.

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:27:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Brown won't win (0+ / 0-)

        Might even lose by double digits. But he makes a race to watch and means that the Dems have to play at least some defense there. It's all about expanding the map, which the GOP has been doing successfully so far this cycle.

  •  As long as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen doesn't pull... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, Ellid

    ... a Martha Coakley, she'll be fine.

    That shithead Brown is an empty head, a male version of the classic stereotype of the "Dumb Blonde". It's pretty sad to watch.

    Dude, Brown, just go find a hobby, let the wife wear the pants as you have your whole life, and leave the rest of us alone.

  •  "Boston's" Scott Brown? (0+ / 0-)

    He lived in Wrentham, MA, which is really a suburb of
    Providence, RI.

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