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8:30 AM PT: MN-07: Once more unto the breach! Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, who had kept the political world waiting on a decision about his future all cycle, announced Monday that he will indeed seek a 13th term this November. Peterson, 69, represents Minnesota's 7th Congressional District, the fifth-reddest district held by a Democrat, and Republicans had long tried to goad him into retirement; to that end, they managed to recruit the strongest challenger Peterson's had in many years, state Sen. Torrey Westrom.

It seemed like the Blue Dog Peterson might finally hang it up, particularly since Congress at long last passed a farm bill this year, something of special importance to Peterson given that he represents a heavily rural region. But Peterson said he still has "a lot of work to do," citing implementation of the farm bill, among other things. It's a break for Democrats, as Peterson remains the favorite despite the fact that Minnesota's 7th went 54-44 for Mitt Romney.

But Peterson, who typically does not engage in a lot of fundraising in odd-numbered years, will have to step it up to make sure that when he does choose to leave office, it's on his own terms, rather than at Westrom's hands. He's more than capable of doing so, but he can't take anything for granted. And even if he survives this year, Peterson's career isn't going to last a whole lot longer, so Democrats will have to resign themselves to likely losing this district after Peterson moves on.

For now, though, reflecting Peterson's unique strengths as a candidate, we maintain our rating of Likely Democratic while acknowledging that this race could easily become more competitive.

9:06 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso updates us on Tuesday's lone legislative special, in the Keystone State:

Pennsylvania SD-28: This an open Republican seat in York County. The candidates on the ballot are Democrat Linda Small and Republican state Rep. Ron Miller. Small and Miller faced off in HD-93 in 2012 and 2010, with Miller winning 69-31 and then 72-28. Throwing a spanner into the works, however, is local businessman Scott Wagner, a Republican who is waging a write-in campaign with the assistance of his pocketbook. Normally this is a safely Republican district, but with two Republicans splitting the vote and slinging mud at each other, there is the possibility of an upset here.
There's also the possibility, of course, that the Democrat comes in third ....

9:28 AM PT: LA-Sen, -Gov: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has reportedly reserved $2.6 million in television air time, from the middle of next month through the end of June. Landrieu's already been up on TV once before this cycle, back in December, but that was for a much smaller $250,000 buy.

Meanwhile, news website LaPolitics has gotten its hands on a late February survey from Republican pollster Voter/Consumer Research, taken on behalf of the Louisiana State Medical Society and the pharmaceutical lobbying group PhRMA, that finds Landrieu edging GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy 45-44. The poll summary also includes trendlines showing that Landrieu was up 53-39 in January of 2013, a spread that's not too implausible given that PPP had her ahead 50-40 around the same timeframe.

V/CR also asked about a hypothetical jungle primary for next year's open-seat gubernatorial contest. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, a Democrat, leads GOP Sen. David Vitter 33-25, with Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R) at 11, Secretary of State John Kennedy (R) at 9, and state House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards (D) at 8. If no candidate clears 50 percent in the primary (which is held at the same time every other state conducts its general election in November), then the top two vote-getters advance to a December runoff.

9:50 AM PT: Okay, this is weird: Louisiana's 2015 primary will take place on Oct. 24 and the general on Nov. 21. I have no idea why.

9:59 AM PT: LA-Sen: And of course, Americans for Prosperity is also chiming in once again in the Pelican State, with another $700,000 buy. (No ad is available yet.)

10:05 AM PT: DCCC: A few weeks ago, I was shooting the shit with a friend at a bar, and we were wondering who the next chair of the DCCC might be. (What kind of bar chat do you think I have?) There didn't seem to be a whole lot of obvious options outside of a handful of folks already on the D-Trip's leadership team, but my buddy had a eureka moment and declared, "Joe Kennedy!" It's a great call: Massachusetts Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III is young, occupies a safe seat in the cash-rich Northeast Corridor, and of course has the most golden name in Democratic politics. He's also already proven himself a prodigious fundraiser, and as the National Journal's Shane Goldmacher points out, he's the only freshman to have already paid his DCCC dues in full. Keep an eye on this guy, for sure.

10:24 AM PT: MI-Gov, -Sen: Some new Michigan polling for Denno Research has GOP Gov. Rick Snyder clinging to a narrow 42-39 lead over Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, while Democratic Rep. Gary Peters edges Republican Terri Lynn Land 40-37 in the Senate race. The senatorial numbers are pretty similar to what Denno found in their last outing in November, when Peters was up 37-36, but the gubernatorial matchup has tightened considerably from a 45-31 Snyder edge.

11:19 AM PT: UT Ballot: Organizers in Utah have abandoned plans to qualify a measure for this year's ballot that would have eliminated the state's use of party conventions to nominate candidates; instead, they've given their approval to a newly passed bill that would allow office-seekers to skip the conventions and petition their way on to the primary ballot. (Under the current regime, primaries only take place between the top two convention vote-getters, and only if no one earns 60 percent of the delegates' votes.) The new system will start operating in 2016. It will require statewide candidates to file 28,000 signatures and 7,000 for House hopefuls.

11:27 AM PT: IL-Gov: We Ask America couldn't resist one last poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary ahead of Tuesday's election. Businessman Bruce Rauner's lead over state Sen. Kirk Dillard has tightened a touch, to 44-27 from 46-26, but time's up.

11:47 AM PT: LA-06: After playing games for months, former Gov., ex-con, and D-list reality TV show star Edwin Edwards has decided to run for Congress—at the age of 86:

"I acknowledge there are good reasons I should not run. But there are better reasons why I should," Edwards said.
Among the many "good reasons" Edwards would have for not running is the fact that Louisiana's 6th Congressional District—open because GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy is running for Senate—is almost implacably Republican. State lawmakers redrew the lines a few years ago to make the seat much redder, and it obliged by going 66-32 for Mitt Romney. Edwards, a Democrat, is almost the definition of a larger-than-life figure, but even though he always retained a strong measure of popularity in spite of (or perhaps a little bit because of) his law-breaking ways, he'll be hard-pressed to overcome this district's demographics.

Still, Republicans haven't exactly assembled a very impressive field to replace Cassidy, and there are few political figures as unpredictable as Edwards, who spent almost nine years in prison on corruption charges after leaving office in the mid-1990s. For now, though, we're maintaining our rating of Safe Republican for this race, but at the very least, Edwards is always entertaining. This contest probably will be, too.

11:57 AM PT: CO-, LA-Sen: In their new salvos in Colorado and Louisiana, Americans for Prosperity is simply trotting out the same paid actress complaining about Obamacare who's appeared in Arkansas, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and America. A genuine grassroots campaign they've got going there. Personally, this ad makes me stabby, but I guess "generic concerned middle-class mom" focus groups well?

Anyway, the Washington Post says that the Colorado buy, targeting Democratic Sen. Mark Udall for the first time, is for $970,000, larger than the $850,000 Politico previously reported. Meanwhile, in Louisiana, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is getting hit for $700,000.

11:59 AM PT (David Jarman): ID-02: The state of Idaho's filing period closed last weekend, and that revealed a welcome blast from the past that had previously flown under the radar: Democratic ex-Rep. Richard Stallings is running to get his old seat back. You might put the stress on "old," though: Stallings is 73 years old, and served here from 1984 to 1992. (He gave up the seat to run for Senate, lost to Dirk Kempthorne in the '92 general, and tried again to get it back when it was open in 1998, but lost to current occupant Mike Simpson.)

This isn't as crazy as it sounds: Stallings seems to be taking a page from Joe Donnelly, in that he probably senses an opening here thanks to the GOP primary battle. If the establishment-flavored Simpson loses to Bryan Smith, and Smith subsequently goes on to insert his foot in his mouth repeatedly, he might have a bank-shot opportunity here, despite the district's R+18 leanings.  On the other hand, though, Donnelly made the leap straight from House to Senate, while Stallings has been out of the Congressional picture for decades. (While you might think this district has shifted dramatically over the decades, it was pretty conservative even then: it was R+14 after the 1992 election; Stallings was also one of the most conservative Dems in the House at the time. The question may be whether he can re-find a niche in a decidedly more polarized national landscape, though.)

12:30 PM PT (Darth Jeff): Idaho: On Friday the candidate filing deadline passed in three more states. We'll start with Idaho, which will hold its primary on May 20. The state has a list of candidates available.

Republican Gov. Butch Otter is seeking a third term, but must get through his three primary challengers first. The only credible one appears to be state Sen. Russ Fulcher. Otter is probably the clear favorite, but there are currently no public polls to confirm this. The Democrats have an interesting candidate in Boise School Board President A.J. Balukoff, but he has a very steep path to victory in conservative Idaho. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Safe Republican.  

Republicans control all of Idaho's statewide offices, and most incumbents are running again. Lt. Gov Brad Little faces a primary with Idaho County Commissioner Jim Chmelik; the winner will face former Democratic state Sen. Bert Marley. Appointed Comptroller Brandon Woolf faces businessman Todd Hatfield, who lost 56-44 in the 2010 primary. Treasurer Ron Crane has two Democratic opponents, while Attorney General Lawrence Wasden has one foe from each party. In the open race for Secretary of State four Republicans are running, with Democratic state Rep. Holli High Woodings facing the winner. In the race for Superintendent of Public Education four Republicans are in. The Democratic candidate will be Jana Jones, who came close to winning this office in 2006.  

Republican Sen. Jim Risch and both Idaho's House members are running again. Risch and Rep. Raúl Labrador face little primary opposition, and we rate both general elections as Safe Republican. Rep. Mike Simpson in the state's second district has a lot more to worry about in the Republican primary. Simpson, a fairly bland establishment conservative, is being targeted for defeat by groups like the Club for Growth who want a much more ideological congressman. The incumbent will face lawyer Bryan Smith in the primary, with the winner taking on the aforementioned former Democratic Rep. Richard Stallings. ID-02 backed Romney 64-33, and we rate is at Safe Republican.

12:57 PM PT (David Jarman): NH-Sen, NH-Gov: That giant sucking sound you heard coming out of the northeast this weekend was all the nation's pollsters rushing to poll the Granite State, in the wake of Scott Brown's decision to finally get off the fence and run for Senate. The two pollsters who've already rolled their data out, however, don't find anything that's going to help Brown feel more comfortable about his decision; they both find high-single-digit/low-double-digit leads that are quite consistent with where the Jeanne Shaheen/Scott Brown race polled before his entry.

ARG puts Shaheen up 50-38, in their first 2014 look at their home state. (ARG also found similar numbers in the gubernatorial race, which has attracted little interest by comparison: Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan leads Andrew Hemingway 45-30.) The other Senate poll comes from Rasmussen, also taking their first look at NH-Sen; their numbers are little better for Brown, with Shaheen leading 50-41.

The first thing Jeanne Shaheen did out of the gate was pretty smart: she asked for a "people's pledge," similar to the one that Brown and Elizabeth Warren agreed to in the Massachusetts Senate race in 2012, which limited advertising by outside groups. American Crossroads already has a $650,000 buy against Shaheen ready to go this week, and it seems likely that the Koch brothers-linked Americans for Prosperity (which already tested the ad waters here) are likely to return in force, so Shaheen would naturally like to thwart them.

Brown, however, seems to realize that signing the pledge in MA-Sen hampered him last time, as he's being non-committal about agreeing this time, saying "the horse has already left the barn," in reference to the third-party spending that's already happened in this race. With or without the pledge, though, Shaheen and Brown are both very adept at raising their own money, so the dollars will find their way to this race one way or the other.

1:08 PM PT (Darth Jeff): Iowa: The Hawkeye State will host its primary on June 3. The state has its list of candidates available here. In races where no one wins more than 35 percent of the vote, the nominee will be chosen at the party's convention.

Republican Gov. Terry Branstad is seeking his second consecutive term, and his sixth overall. Branstad only has minimal primary opposition, and will face Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch in November. Polls show Branstad to be quite popular, and Daily Kos Elections rates this as Likely Republican.

There isn't much primary action for any other state offices. Republican incumbents for state auditor and secretary of agriculture each have one Democratic opponent. The Democratic incumbents for treasurer and attorney general have no major party opponents whatsoever. In the open seat race for secretary of state, Republican Paul Pate will try to get the job he left in 1999; his Democratic opponent is political consultant Brad Anderson.

Five Republicans are running to succeed outgoing Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin: talk show host Sam Clovis; state Sen. Joni Ernst; former energy executive Mark Jacobs; Some Dude Scott Schaben; and former US Attorney Matt Whitaker. The only Democrat in the race is Rep. Bruce Braley. At the moment Braley looks like the favorite to keep this seat in the blue column, and we rate the race as Lean Democratic.

There's primary action on both sides to replace Braley in his northeastern Iowa House seat. On the Democratic side for IA-01, five candidates are running: former state Sen. Swati Dandekar; state Rep. Anesa Kajtazovic; former state House Speaker Pat Murphy; attorney Dave O'Brien; and Cedar Rapids Councilor Monica Vernon. On the Republican side the candidates are businessman and 2010 candidate Rod Blum, Marshalltown School Board member Gail Boliver, and perennial candidate Steve Rathje. Obama won this seat 56-43, and we rate it as Lean Democratic.  

In the Des Moines area IA-03, Republican Rep. Tom Latham's retirement sets up a very competitive race. Six Republicans are running here: businessman Robert Cramer; teacher Joe Grandanette; Secretary of State Matt Schultz; trade group executive Monte Shaw; former Congressional aide David Young; and former state Sen. and 2010 nominee Brad Zaun. The Democratic standard-bearer will be former state Sen. Staci Appel. Obama won this district 51-47, matching his nationwide popular vote total. We rate this as a Tossup.

Iowa's remaining two House members are running again, but neither has a clear path to victory. In southwest Iowa's second district, Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack has three Republican challengers: state Rep. Mark Lofgren; Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who was the 2008 and 2010 nominee and recently served in the Branstad Administration; and Some Dude Matthew Waldren. Obama won IA-02 56-43, and we rate is as Likely Democratic.

Over in western Iowa's fourth district, loudmouth Republican Rep. Steve King faces Democratic veteran Jim Mowrer. Romney won 53-45 here and King turned back a well-funded challenge last cycle, but Mowrer may be able to take advantage of the incumbent's controversial reputation and weak fundraising. We rate this as Likely Republican.

Finally, Iowa will have several competitive state Senate races this year, as Democrats defend their narrow 26-24 majority in the chamber. Over at Bleeding Heartland, Desmoinesdem handicaps each seat.  

1:09 PM PT (David Jarman): WV-03: It's not an accident that we moved the race in West Virginia's 3rd district to Tossup last Friday; it's becoming very clear that it's one of the Dems' top defense priorities in the House this cycle, with House Majority PAC out with a third ad already. The ad features the wife of the coal miner used in their second ad, who lists some of the worst items on GOP challenger Evan Jenkins' agenda. It's a $60,000 buy in both the Charleston and Bluefield markets.

1:38 PM PT (Darth Jeff): Nevada: The Silver State will hold its primary on June 10. Unfortunately, there is no one comprehensive statewide candidate list. The state has its database here, but Clark and Washoe counties each have their own lists for races confined to just those counties.

Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval has proven to be popular in this Democratic-leaning swing state, and has scared off any credible challenger. As a result, we're changing our rating for this race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.

On the other hand, the open race for lieutenant governor will be a high-stakes affair. On the Republican side, state Sen. Mark Hutchison will face former state party chair Sue Lowden and frequent candidate Christopher Dyer. Given how Lowden helped kill her 2010 Senate campaign over some bizarre comments over trading chickens for checkups, its no surprise the party establishment supports Hutchison. The winner of the primary will face Democratic Assembywoman Lucy Flores. This race can have some serious repercussions: Sandoval is a potential 2016 Senate candidate, but he may get cold feet if he knew that his victory would hand Lt. Gov Flores the governorship.

Democrats control the four remaining statewide offices, and term-limits are forcing the outgoing incumbents to play a game of musical chairs to stay in office. In the race for Attorney General, Secretary of State Ross Miller will face Republican lawyer Adam Laxalt (the grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt). To succeed Miller as secretary of state, Treasurer Kate Marshall will take on Republican state Sen. Barbara Cegavske. In the race for Treasurer, Controller Kim Wallin will take on Republican businessman Dan Schwartz. In the open seat for controller, three Republicans and two Democrats are in.

All four of the state's House members are seeking another term. While none have much primary opposition, two suburban Las Vegas members will need to keep an eye on their seats in November. In NV-03, Republican Rep. Joe Heck will face DNC member Erin Bilbray. Obama pulled off a narrow 50-49 win here, but Heck is a tough opponent. We rate this as Lean Republican.

In the nearby NV-04, freshman Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford has two credible Republican foes. In the race are Assemblyman Cresent Hardy and Niger Innis, the spokesman for the Congress on Racial Equality (a once proud but now disgraced group). Obama won 54-44 here, and we rate it as Likely Democratic. The state's remaining two House members, Democrat Dina Titus and Republican Mark Amodei, have little to worry about in November.

1:52 PM PT: AZ-02: The LIBRE Initiative, a conservative Hispanic group, says they plan to spend $500,000 targeting Democratic Rep. Ron Barber, though no ads are available yet. The organization has already spent $1.4 million attacking Reps. Joe Garcia (FL-26) and Pete Gallego (TX-23) so far this cycle. And who is LIBRE, exactly? USA Today helpfully reveals that they're a front group for none other than Americans for Prosperity, which is itself the ur-front group of the conservative movement.

2:24 PM PT: ND-AL: After considering the race for some time, state Sen. George Sinner has decided to run for Congress, giving Democrats a credible candidate against freshman GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer. North Dakota is a very red state, of course, supporting Mitt Romney by a 59-39 margin. Sinner, though, is the son of former Gov. George A. Sinner, and he represents a 52-46 Romney district himself, so he may start off with a bit of name recognition and some crossover appeal.

2:30 PM PT: CA-33: Any time you have the prospect of a Dem-vs.-Dem general election in California, there's always the question of who will make a play for Republican voters, and how. It requires a delicate dance, because you don't want to alienate liberals, but it's very tempting all the same, because even in a lopsided district, you're still talking about a sizable pool of votes that's waiting to be tapped. And in California's solidly blue 33rd Congressional District, the first move comes from state Sen. Ted Lieu, who's trying to carefully thread the proverbial needle by rolling out an endorsement from former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan.

Riordan has long had a reputation as a moderate, to the point that it even scuttled his bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2002, so his support for Lieu is unlikely to ruffle too many feathers on the left. And so far, we're only talking about a press release—it remains to be seen how actively Lieu will court Republicans, or whether any of his rivals, including former Los Angeles City Controller Wendy Greuel, try to follow suit.

3:18 PM PT: NE-Sen: Former state Treasurer Shane Osborn is airing his first TV ads of the GOP primary, backed by a reported $80,000 buy. The spot focuses on the 2001 incident when Osborn, the pilot of a Navy reconnaissance plane, made an emergency landing at a Chinese airbase after sustaining serious damage in a mid-air collision with a Chinese jet. Somber piano music plays as a spotlight draws attention to a wooden stool in a bare room while a narrator says, "In a crude concrete building, Navy pilot Shane Osborn endured Chinese interrogation for 12 days. He never wavered." Osborn then appears, insisting he won't "fold" "under pressure," saying that's the kind of leadership necessary to "repeal Obamacare and protect our freedom."

3:42 PM PT: AK-Sen: The pro-Democratic super PAC Put Alaska First is running their second ad attacking Republican Dan Sullivan over his Alaska bona fides. A wry narrator says that Sullivan, whom the group previously criticized for accepting a tax credit for Maryland residents, possessed a "non-resident Alaska fishing license, like every other tourist," dating from 2009. Last year, though, he sought a fishing license available only to residents—and claimed he'd lived in the state for 10 years. Oops. The size of the buy is $75,000.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:00:15 AM PDT

  •  MI Gov & Senate Polls (16+ / 0-)

    I first have to preface by saying I posted some numbers showing overwhelming support for the proposed minimum wage hike ballot from this same polling outfit over the weekend.  Though, like most Michigan pollsters, they tend to be Reepublican-friendly (Denno, though, nominally claims to be a Democratic pollsters, though, you'd never know from the results), what these polls do show is movement.

    Governor:  It appears that Schauer has drawn Snyder to a statistical tie in a Lambert Edwards/Denno Research.  There last time polling the race in November showed a 12-point spread in Snyder's favor:

    Snyder:  42% (45)
    Schauer: 39% (31)

    4% MoE, 600 Likely Voters

    Apparently, they find that Snyder's education cuts and Schauer hammering away at them are what's changing the momentum.

    Senate: The poll also shows Gary Peters leading Terri Lynn Land, but also within the margin of error.

    Peters: 40% (37)
    Lands:  37% (36)

    4% MoE, 600 Likely Voters

    The poll's partisan sample is also pretty on point with past election turnouts at 39 (D) - 32 (R) - 24 (I).  The Detroit News is also reporting this morning that Peters is hammering away at Land in online ads bringing up her support for Mitt Romney's "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" stance.

    What appears to be happening is that Dem-leaning indies are starting to pay attention, now.

    •  poll (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome, ArkDem14, James Allen, TofG

      This is definitely one of the more realistic looking polls, both in terms of the partisan breakdown and the results.  Small leads for Snyder and Peters makes sense to me.  While it's a small lead, it's good to see that Peters is ahead despite the recent negative ads.

      •  Yep (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Christopher Walker, JBraden

        Like I said, I'm less concerned about the actual numbers, than I am about the obvious movement and momentum towards the Dems.  I was particularly surprised by what appears to be a legitimate surge (cutting a lead from 12 to 3) by Schauer.  I'd earlier questioned his focus on education spending, but the pollster seems to have found it's the major issue driving people toward Schauer.  

        A lot of this, again, is simply Dem-leaning independents finally starting to coalesce, but this does show that Snyder can't seem to pull away, even with a steadily improving state economy and still with better name recognition as the incumbent.

        BTW, I'm a bit confused because the article says the November lead was a 12-point lead for Snyder, but the numbers seem to show a 14-point lead.  Even chalking this up to them drilling down to tenths, I'm not sure why these two numbers don't mesh.  But, I guess the major point is that Schauer has cut the lead way down to statistical tie.

        •  MI-Gov, PA-Gov (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG

          If it's true that voters have decided to care about cuts to education, I hope that may also help us in Pennsylvania, this cycle.

          A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

          by Christopher Walker on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:40:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Michigan looks more competitive then I'd thought. (0+ / 0-)

            Perhaps a chance for big governor gains this year (florida, Pennsylvania, Maine, Michigan) and maybe Wisconsin and/or Ohio? Any new polls on those last two?

            •  Ras has Walker and Burke tied (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              madmojo

              45-45.

              This could very well be the sleeper race of the cycle.  (I fully expect Kasich to win in Ohio, though.  It probably won't even be close.)

              Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

              by JBraden on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:29:13 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Don't mess with education spending (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, jncca, JGibson, JBraden

          It's a real sleeping tiger in a lot of places, especially for Governors, because it hits non-political folks and what they care about: their children.

          •  Education cuts hurt Corbett more than anything (0+ / 0-)

            else (although far from his only oops---guess he had his eyes closed).

          •  I've (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            I've been underestimating this, because there has been a decade's long movement from the right - but even some of us on the left - to dismantle public education in all but the most wealthy districts, and this has pretty much happened nation-wide.  So, it's really striking for me to see that this is the issue really riling people up.  

            I guess there are more folks who care about public education than I thought, because all we hear in the media is about "evil teachers' unions" and "crappy" public schools where "those people's" children go.

            •  The average voter dislikes the teachers union (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              propjoe

              but likes teachers and public education in a broader sense.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:42:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's more due to propaganda against the unions (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh

                Than disapproval of what their purpose is.

                26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:55:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'd have to see polling on that. (0+ / 0-)

                  21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                  by jncca on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 12:58:41 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  I think I've heard of this poll (0+ / 0-)

      but have no clue as to their performance.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:55:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN?: Kathy Nickolaus. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    I don't know/remember if we have discussed this here yet, but former Wauke$ha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus is running for the Wauke$ha County Board. The election is April 1st.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:49:41 AM PDT

    •  So she's going to hit the city? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, gabjoh
      •  Basically she wants to be on the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo

        county legislature. "County Legislature" isn't the official term for it, but that is basically what county boards are in WI.

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

        by WisJohn on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:06:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It was a reference to a Ke$ha song. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, gabjoh

          It's kind of funny to me that a county needs a legislature.

          •  Sorry. I'm not a Ke$ha fan. (0+ / 0-)

            They make county-wide ordinances. Also, in WI, the counties are in charge of plowing the roads in the winter, and other road maintenance. For example, in Minnesota, when it snows, MN Department of Transportation (MnDOT) trucks will be out plowing and de-icing the roads. However, in Wisconsin, that responsibility is on the county.

            Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

            by WisJohn on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:32:01 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Counties (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, James Allen, Audrid, WisJohn

            Outside of New England, counties play a major role in this country, particularly in rural areas, not incorporated as cities.  For many states, they are a state's smallest administrative division.  In the case of an urbanized settlement, these areas usually incorporated as cities to bring the government even closer to them.  I'm not sure how it's strange that America has a first-tier administrative division (state's are a political divison).  These are roughly equivalent to "districts" in the UK.

            Where are you from, Audrid?  I'm sure there is a "county" equivalent with its own governing body in your country.

            •  I'm from Singapore. (4+ / 0-)

              It's too small to have any meaningful local government.

            •  Just FYI for Audrid (7+ / 0-)

              In New England, the states are much smaller and have a smaller number of counties, so towns are the major units of local government below the state. In Northern New England, counties have a limited function, and there are a few elected officials from counties. In Southern New England, counties are literally just lines on a map; they have no governmental function at all. MA, RI, and CT don't actually release election results by county; they release it only by town, and then people add up the results from each town in the county to find the county results.

              In Southern New England, all area of each state is included in a town. In Vermont and New Hampshire, most of the states' area (and 99.9% of the states' population) is in a town. In Maine, there are large areas of the state that are not incorporated, but those areas are almost entirely uninhabited, and 99% of the state's population lives in either towns or plantations (which are kind of like towns but have smaller populations and less local government).

              Towns in Southern New England generally have a manager/town council, a first selectman, or a mayor and town council. In Northern New England, many small towns are governed by Town Meetings, where everyone meets in a building and they make decisions by popular vote.

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:45:55 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Japan doesn't really have anything (0+ / 0-)

              like county government per se. I'm not actually sure how common it is.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 01:34:59 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  After she brushes her teeth with a bottle of Jack. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid

        Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

        by JBraden on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:31:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    The NYT thinks that Republicans think that it is winnable.

    Me? I think that if they couldn't in 2010, they can't in 2014. Not that anyone asked for my opinion, lol.

    •  It's plausible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MrLiberal

      Quinn is extremely unpopular and has been in office for six years. Yes, he won in 2010, but as Kirk's Senate victory shows, Republicans can win statewide office. Plus his 2010 victory was super narrow and owed a lot to Bill Brady being really right-wing. Had Kirk Dillard or Andy McKenna won that crazy five-way primary, they would likely have defeated Quinn.

    •  The sun rises in the east . . . (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      . . . the sky is blue, water is wet, and the New York Times is concern-trolling.

      31, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

      by The Caped Composer on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:19:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I dunno; there are two factors in play (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, JGibson, JBraden

      that cancel each other out.  Quinn has four additional years as governor, mostly not popular ones, so dislike of him is probably deeper seated now than 2010.  OTOH, the national mood is more partisanly neutral and less "wave"-ish and the Blagojevich (sp?) mess, to the extent it was an issue then, is no longer relevant.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:03:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also Brady was a terrible fit for Chicagoland. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, JBraden

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:32:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MN-7 Today's the day (6+ / 0-)

    And sounds like Peterson is running again.  Excellent news to start a Monday!  Let's hope he doesn't dissapoint.

  •  More good economic news (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.reuters.com/...

    U.S. manufacturing output recorded its largest increase in six months in February and factory activity in New York state expanded, in the latest signs that economic activity was gaining momentum after being dampened by severe weather.

    Factory production increased 0.8 percent last month, its largest increase since last August, the Federal Reserve said on Monday. That followed January's 0.9 percent decline, which was the largest drop since May 2009.

    It's a good indicator that economic growth might not slow down this summer as they typically have in Obama's Presidency. I'd say that as this continues to sink in, it should help Obama's approval ratings and bolster incumbent Democrats.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:28:11 AM PDT

  •  NH Sen ARG: Shaheen 50 Brown 38 (18+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:36:54 AM PDT

    •  But...but Scott Brown! (6+ / 0-)

      Seriously, check out this Atlantic article: http://www.theatlantic.com/...

      It's a pretty inane article from the Atlantic of all places. I'll just start with this:

      Merrill and others believe Shaheen, a former governor finishing her first Senate term, is vulnerable because of her vote for Obamacare and the "D" next to her name, at a time when the president's approval rating has been sinking like a stone. Sure, he's a recent import—Brown recently made his longtime vacation home in Rye his primary residence—but a sizable percentage of Granite Staters get their television and radio stations from Boston, giving Brown a level of name recognition that likely outweighs the carpetbagger rap.
      Journalism is not about simply parroting what both sides say, as much as American journalist schools have engrained that that is how objectivity works. This doesn't even accomplish that, spending an entire article to repeat Republican talking points with no real investigation or engagement, which is what makes it a disappointment for such a good magazine.

      Also, a Presidential approval rating that's been sinking like a stone:

       photo e6784ed6-04a8-41b9-957f-d4a2c2d1225a_zps0771330b.jpg

      For Republicans, Brown's entry is the latest in a run of recent good news, from a special election in Florida earlier in the week to unexpectedly competitive Senate races in places like Colorado and Michigan
      The Florida special was undoubtedly good news. The only thing I want to see with that is if there was any polling information on what the electorate looked like. If we're talking about a 55% Romney electorate in a district Obama narrowly won, then turnout annihilated Democrats as it traditionally has in local Pinellas elections (Democrats struggled to finally win the mayoralty of St. Petersburg for Christsake, and that's a city more Democratic than any congressional district held by a Republican).

      They got Cory Gardner in Colorado to take it from a mostly uncompetitive race to a competitive they still only have a small chance of winning given its current state and the current neutralish political environment. And Michigan. Is Michigan really anything that new? This is just referring to a couple of January polls that showed Land improving her share and leading by 3-4 points with huge undecideds, which isn't meaningfully different than it was last year. Speaking of Michigan, http://thehill.com/... I wish I had taken a screenshot of that article yesterday. When it had initially said that Bruce Braley was running against Land in Michigan (I totally trust their political analysis now).

      You just don't get much good punditry from reporters or journalists. I tried to explain it to a European friend the other day. I think the reporting on actual campaigns sucks because it's totally different than the formulaic he/she said bullshit that goes around in beltway reporting, discussing the cat fights and policy, yet most of these journalists don't treat it differently. It's a lot to keep straight, and has to be followed quite closely, and frankly, the vast bulk of reporters working D.C. and on the major papers aren't interested in that and don't really respect or privilege that part of politics; elections are the dirty unprestigous side of politics, and the sort of stereotypical doxa (to borrow a Bourdieu term) of this field, the conceptions they take as natural and how the electoral campaigns work, is really more a 1970s-1980s conception; very outdated, never especially accurate to begin with.

      You're not really getting the freshest takes as it were when you read the vast majority of these types of political punditry, even though they can be a good supplement and are often somewhat correct in their calls or discussions. Instead, it's full of rather dull articles often doing nothing more than repeating each sides talking points (usually devoting significantly more space to Republican ones and only highlighting incomplete or poor articulated Democratic ones), and offering little; the comments from this forum/group are a better source for political information than The Hill or Politico or even The New York Times.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 08:56:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hard to imagine how Brown improves from here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Jacob1145

      How does he carve into Shaheen's 50%? I don't see how it's possible.

      •  By driving a pick up truck around (10+ / 0-)

        and telling voters about the time he was elected to the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts. He can also throw in a few attacks on Martha Coakley while he's at it.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:03:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Unless NH voters are even more oddly fickle (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, JBraden

        than I imagine, I can see this becoming entertaining pretty damn quick. No matter how many resources are dumped into this race and no matter how bad the cycle might turn out for us, I can't think he'll even make her sweat all that much. (She seems smart, so she'll prepare just in case, but I can't really worry, so I won't see any moves as panicky, just her not napping.) Yet, I don't see him realizing this. I can see him trying a bunch of desperate, gimmicky crap--challenging her to a trivia contest on NH facts or something--and then looking like a fool.

        I can also see lots of absurd polls coming out to make sure that This is a RACE, people!™--polls with a 67 percent Republican electorate, followed by Sunday morning chatter, and so on.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:29:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ras has 50-41 Shaheen (7+ / 0-)

      I guess there's been no announcement bump?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:01:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's still only a possible challenger, to be fair. (0+ / 0-)

        Because, really, time is on his side.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:31:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Poor pollster of questionable integrity, but... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, JBraden

      ...throw it into the pile as happy news of the day, even though IMO we shouldn't trust the source.

      I do think Shaheen wins by double-digits anyway.

      And this is a dumb move by Brown that shows total political tone-deafness.  He's going to ruin his image and make himself a laughingstock for losing Senate races in different states in successive cycles.  And this after he passed on what was a less impossible shot at another MA special in between.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:02:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah. if he really wanted to serve a state, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, jncca

        why not run for governor in Massachusetts in a few years? He's only in his mid-fifties. He could work in the private sector and release an op/ed or something every so often. He's moderate enough, it seems, to win the nomination, and the state has a history of voting in Republicans for the top spot.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:06:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, will this really be the thing that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        does him in?  I doubt he can come crawling back on his hands and knees to Massachusetts to run for Gov in the future.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:12:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Digging into the Ipsos Reuters (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, MetroGnome, pademocrat

    internet poll showing Obama with a 41-53 approval rating.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...

    It seems like a bizarre sample. It's set up to: Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, and Independent for the main categories. It's 42% Democrat or Lean Democrat, and only 28% Republican or Lean Republican, and just 14% Independent. The independent category must have been dominated by conservatives, and Obama's 26-69 approval rating in that category sort of confirms it. Between this and Gallup and Rasmussen I'm having a hard time getting an actual handle at where Obama's approval rating probably is, though I assume it's around 45%.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:02:10 AM PDT

    •  Meh, throw it into the pile (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold, LordMike, pademocrat

      Obama's job approval is still poor, period.

      It's going to take months to recover even modestly.  He's had some very modest recovery so far this year, but we need him to get up over 45 consistently to prevent a midterm that would end up looking like 2002 or 2004...i.e., no GOP wave, but definitely GOP years.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:04:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's not on the ballot (0+ / 0-)

        And dems are leading the GCB and individual senate polls in the vast majority of samples.

        Pres approval rating is a factor if and only if it is noticeably impacting senate/house contests. So far, given the GCB and individual senate polls, the answer to that is "only somewhat" - unless his poor approval is tamping down a dem wave, in which case, getting his approval above 45% would translate to 2006, not 2012.

        And I'm not sure why 45% is a magic number in the first place. His current RCP average is 43%, so 45% is well within the margin of error of aggregate polling.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:20:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bush wasn't on the ballot in 2006. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, gabjoh

          While I'm not saying 2014 will be like 2006, "he's not on the ballot" is completely irrelevant in a midterm.  Midterms are still about the president.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:36:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  You know you're on DKE too much (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, Gygaxian, JacobNC, bjssp, Mark27

    When you're on you're way to work and find yourself humming on Michael Jackson's "Billie Jean" but with the lyrics "Howard Dean, he's not my Governor".

    Sigh.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:40:32 AM PDT

    •  Did I seriously post "you're way to work?" (0+ / 0-)

      Crap. I suck.

      For the record, I hope Dean runs so he can use that as his campaign theme.

      "He's just a man, but I think he's the one,

      'cause Chris Christie is not that fun"

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:10:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Joe Scarborough Prepares for 2016...Maybe (0+ / 0-)

    It's not the first time his potential candidacy has been talked up. Granted, this is from NewsMax, hardly a serious site, but really, this seems like slobbering on a whole new level.

    If this happens, at least it'll make the race more entertaining.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:41:35 AM PDT

  •  FL-GOV: UNF poll puts Crist ahead of Scott, 34-33. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    In what is surely one of the most ridiculous polls of our gubernatorial election this year, the University of North Florida has Charlie Crist ahead of Rick Scott in their most recent survey, 34% to 33%. 17% say that they are backing "someone else," which will give the Adrian Wyllie Libertarian crowd (who are truly crazy people) something to talk about for quite a while, and 17% are unsure. This is down from a 44-40 Crist lead that they found in October. So, somehow, both candidates are stuck in the low- to mid-thirties. Really?

    On another ridiculous note, they note that Scott's approval rating has decreased from their last poll, but it's still above water and is ridiculously high: 45% approval, 39% disapproval, down from 49% approval and 42% disapproval.

    I'm posting this not because I'm taking it seriously as a legitimate survey, but just because, like Rasmussen polls, it's technically election-related news.

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:58:29 AM PDT

  •  Mitt Romney, Wrong or Just a Liar, Part XXXIVIIVIV (8+ / 0-)

    Does anyone here remember when Mitt Romney mentioned that a Jeep plant would be moving to China? Turns out, he was wrong wrong wrong.

    As this link notes, it's hiring part time 1,000 workers in Ohio because demand for Jeeps is so high.

    I look forward to the correction from the former Massachusetts Governor, whenever it will come.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:02:07 AM PDT

  •  Alberta-legislature (7+ / 0-)

    Open revolt brewing against PC Premier Alison Redford as second MLA quits caucus in the past few days, with more on the record as considering sitting as independents: http://www.calgaryherald.com/...

    The latest poll has the PCs trailing the Wildrose by 46-23! http://www.edmontonjournal.com/...

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:02:27 AM PDT

    •  Aren't the Wildrose right-wingers? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:11:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        But the PCs have been governing in a pretty right-wing way, too... they slashed funding for Universities and Colleges, and introduced two very Scott Walkeresque pieces of legislation limiting the rights of public sector unions. The problem with the PCs is that they're disliked by the left AND the far-right!

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections

        by James L on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:16:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It (0+ / 0-)

          would have been better if the PCs lost the last election election wise. Being in opposition would have given the PCs time to renew itself and inject new blood into the party while a Wildrose government would have quickly become the laughing stock of Canada.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:19:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think Smith is a bit more shrewd than that (0+ / 0-)

            I think she would have ran a Harperesque operation (i.e. conservative incrementalism) rather than rushing headfirst into a right-wing utopia. Of course, that's highly speculative on my part, and I could be proven wrong. She has certainly been spending time trying to "moderate" her image since losing in 2012, though.

            Editor, Daily Kos Elections

            by James L on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:31:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  She'd (0+ / 0-)

              have to deal with a caucus of newbies who as we saw during the campaign weren't ready for primetime.

              Of course that's what they said about the Quebec NDP contingent (Ruth Ellen Brosseau in particular) as well after 2011...

              The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

              by ehstronghold on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:01:17 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  In Alberta (0+ / 0-)

            Every political party that lost government never regained it. If the Tories lose power, it's pretty much eternal political damnation.

            24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

            by kurykh on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:47:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Next DCCC Chairman (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoUBears, Gygaxian

    I'd prefer the next DCCC Chairman to be someone who excels at political party management but is not an incumbent elected official, but, if it is an incumbent House member, Joe Kennedy would probably be one of the better choices, as he's one person who I couldn't imagine being worse than Steve Israel.

  •  KY-Sen Pro-Alison McConnelling (0+ / 0-)

    Does my attempt seems like a decent campaign spoof for Alison? It's worth watching to the end, and get rid of the ad as soon as you can.

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -4.75, -2.10

    by GoUBears on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:40:09 AM PDT

  •  NH-Sen (8+ / 0-)

    Scott Brown to Jeanne Shaheen: I won't sign the same pledge I signed in 2012 because I need the Koch Brothers to carpetbomb you on the airwaves.

    Scott Brown on Saturday blasted Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D-N.H.) challenge to limit outside spending in the New Hampshire Senate race as "self-serving and hypocritical."

    Brown, the former Massachusetts senator who is gearing up for a run in New Hampshire, said Shaheen and other Democratic outside groups have already been running ads against him for months.

    Brown made clear he thought the offer was a stunt.

    "It's hard to view Jeanne Shaheen's actions as anything other than hypocritical and self-serving,” he said in a statement. “The people of New Hampshire can see through the Washington-style game she is playing.”

    Read more: http://thehill.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:10:49 AM PDT

    •  This is perfect for Shaheen, isn't it? (8+ / 0-)

      If he signs the pledge, he cuts off basically the biggest source of funding he's likely to get. If he signs it but allows them to spend on his behalf, he'll look ridiculous, like a liar, and give Shaheen weeks if not months of easy attacks.

      If he doesn't sign it, he looks like an outsider being propped up by corporate interests--ones that are, to be sure, likely to light a fire under the ass of any Democrat and probably a lot of Indies, too, to the benefit of Shaheen. In a different but perhaps more powerful way, he becomes an easy target and gives Shaheen a lot to talk about besides anything that much be controversial, like the ACA.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:15:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Opportunities for Dems in NYS Senate (9+ / 0-)

    Republican Charles Fuschillo announced his resignation from the 8th District in late December. It's becoming a hotly contested seat.

    The Republicans seem to be lining up behind Michael Venditto, a Nassau County legislator from Massapequa since 2012. There's information about his background here. There was speculation Assemb. Joseph Saladino would run, but the party has backed Venditto.

    The Democrats in the race are another Nassau County legislator, Dave Denenberg, and Freeport Deputy Mayor and Village Trustee Carmen Piñeyro. The party seems to be lining up behind Denenberg, but Piñeyro hasn't said if she will drop out. He has more money than she does, $103,000 to $3,300, for what it's worth, and all of that can be used for the state senate race, but he also has an electoral legal problem, as I learned here.

    A little background on the district, from Newsday:

    The Nassau portion of the 8th Senate District has 63,686 registered Democrats and 65,615 Republicans, according to state Board of Elections records. The Suffolk section has 20,472 Democrats and 11,829 Republicans.
    Also from Newsday:
    State Sen. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) is planning to vacate his seat as he seeks the GOP nomination to challenge Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton). Democrats are also expected to mount aggressive campaigns against Sen. Kemp Hannon (R-Garden City) and Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola).
    I'm not sure if Zeldin can slide back into the state senate race if Demos beats him. Former state Assemblyman Dean Murray might run for Zeldin's seat, while the Democratic candidate might be state Assemblyman Edward Hennessey, as Suffolk County Legislator Kate Browning (D-Mastic) "has said publicly she has no interest in moving to Albany." Either way, I imagine his district will be contested.

    Republicans control all nine of the senate senate seats from Long Island.

    The current make up, with the two vacancies, is 29 Republicans, 27 Democrats (including Simcha Felder), and 5 Buttheads IDCers.

    I assume we'll keep Eric Adams' old seat. That brings us to 28. If we win the other two seats currently occupied, that brings us to 30. If we also win Fuschillo's seat, currently vacant, that brings us to 31. But it's more like 30, since Felder caucuses with the Republicans. But that means we're down by two.

    I'd ask Taget, who has a much better handle on this stuff than I do, who else we might target in order to get full control of the Senate, Felcher and the IDCers be damned.

    While winning all of these four Long Island senate districts might be hard, it probably isn't impossible. Even if we just win two of the seats, that's pretty good progress.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:10:54 AM PDT

    •  Nice to hear commentary on your local politics (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:26:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm trying to dive back in (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        to various things, local politics being one of them. I'd like to add a little more value to the board rather than my usual spat of boob jokes, celebrity gossip, and comments on unintentionally and kind of depressingly hilarious Republican outreach to minority groups, you know? :]

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:33:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  SD-40 is a definite target. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, KingofSpades, GoUBears

      Greg Ball is considering running for Putnam County Executive, which would leave it open and vulnerable.

      And it's Cuomo's home district, so hopefully his desire for a republican controlled senate doesn't outweigh a need to decisively win his residence in northern Westchester versus Asterino.

    •  Betty Little (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, Jacob1145

      She's in her 70's, my guess is it's an Obama district, and we didn't even challenge her in 2010.  It's SD-45.  5 of the 6 counties in her District went for Obama, I'm guessing it was like a 55-45 Obama district in 2012.

      Hugh Farley in SD-49 is another target.  he's probably unbeatable, but he's in his 80's and pretty sure it's gotta be close to a swing district (all the big counties are split and I'm not that interested in digging for the precinct splits lol).  The scary thing about this is his son is waiting in the wings who served for close to 20 years on Schenectady country legislature.  If we don't beat Dad outright, he could retire and his son could probably waltz right into that seat.  (Note Schencatdy county is about half the votes for this district, it went 57-41 for Obama in 2012).

      Marchione in SD-43 is probably a target, but only with a really strong Dem and that Dem will need to get the Indy line...

      I know people blame Cuomo for all things in the NY Senate, but so long as Little runs un-opposed and Farley gets lame opponents, we probably don't stand much hope of the Senate.  I'd expect 1 out of every 2 new downstaters who win to become IDC anyways.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:05:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  All the districts by Obama-Romney (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacob1145

        are here.

        SD-45 (Little) went 56-42% for Obama.  Little herself is probably unbeatable, but this will be tough for the GOP to hold when she's gone.  The GOP majority really does depend on incumbency.

        SD-49 (Farley) went 51.1%-46.9% for Obama.  Also probably out of reach until he retires.

        SD-43 (Marchione) went 52.9%-45.2% for Obama.  Considered putting this on the target list, but I dunno.  There was a three-way split with the previous GOP incumbent getting primaried out, but still remaining on the Independent line and getting 16%, but we couldn't capitalize and still lost by 10 points to Marchione.

        Also, SD-56 (Robach) is incredibly blue and went for Obama 60%-38%...it's basically as blue as Louise Slaughter's congressional district.  But we didn't even try to challenge him in 2012.

        It's notable just how overexposed Republicans are in New York, and with two-year terms they will always be at risk in the next Dem wave year.  And once their incumbents start falling, they'll never get those seats back.

        •  I'd say GOP holds them all upon retirement (0+ / 0-)

          Betty Little's successor is going to be Dan Stec, currently the GOP assemblyman in territory over-lapping her SD.  Farley's son would probably take his seat.  Marchione is probably the most beatable, but if she retired I think maybe a better GOPer would run in her place.

          I think people waiting for retirements will be vey disappointed in these areas...we're going to have to beat people outright.  Then again, with Little being in her 70's and Farley in his 80's, the "waiting for retirement" game has been proven a poor gamble anyways :-).

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:28:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The GOP may be favored (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, James Allen

            with their replacement candidates, but I don't see how our chances are any worse in open seats than they already are now against long-term incumbents.

            Still, our best opportunities may indeed lie elsewhere.  The fact is only like half the GOP majority is built on safe seats.  All it takes is a few at the edges and it's over.  And I don't see how the GOP gets to gerrymander the state senate again in the next round of redistricting, short of 2020 being some GOP wave year that gives them the senate again.

            •  Maybe we don't get worse (0+ / 0-)

              But Stec is probably better than Little, Farley = Farley and I think Marchione is not a great fit for a Saratoga-Rensselaer district.  Maybe we improve our chances a little, but today we're at 0% in 45 and 49 and Stec and Farley (the son) might give us 10% chances at victory.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:00:31 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Strongly favored (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje

              Stec is better than little, Farley (son) probably is about equal to Farley (father) and Marchione I don't think is a great fit for a Saratoga-Rensselaer based district today, never mind in the future.  (McDonald was definitel a better fit for the district overall obviosuly)

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:05:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Whoops double post (0+ / 0-)

                Got an ugly error but I see the first post finally showed up :-)

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:07:13 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  My lack of (0+ / 0-)

          direct campaign experience must be making it hard for me to realize how hard this stuff really is, because with your numbers, the path forward seems kind of easy, at least in theory. We're not talking about covering the whole state, but a few districts that aren't that big, even if they aren't densely populated. Even if it takes a few cycles, start the process of leaving no stone unturned when it comes to getting people to vote for our guys. If they are more or less living on borrowed time, we'll eventually beat them.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:41:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  23 of the 30 Republicans (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, Jacob1145, James Allen, gabjoh

            are in seats Obama won.  At some point that just won't be sustainable anymore.  It took gerrymandering wizardry and a breakaway group of Democrats to give them a couple more sessions in the majority, but it's incredibly precarious.  At some point, you just can't force a state that gives 30-point margins to Democrats to still have a GOP state senate.

            •  Your reasoning is why (0+ / 0-)

              I said what I said just above. The path forward seems kind of easy, even if the end result might not achieved right away. Even if it's not entirely cohesive and/or there are turf wars, it's not like the party is really struggling for prominence. The districts aren't as small as those in the New Hampshire legislature, but they aren't THAT big. You're not talking about contacting 500,000 people and getting 60 percent of them to the polls. Maybe a tenth of that, really. And since we're talking about state legislative elections rather than federal ones, I'd figure it's more of a ground game thing, anyway. Start knocking on some doors, promising to drive people to the polls, and so on. One by one by one, we can tack on voters to our totals and get this done.

              If only, it seems...

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:06:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Why so many IDCers in your mind? (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:36:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Human nature (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp

          I have the chance to grab power immediately or wait and work my way up.  It's not like they are elected to serve the interests of voters.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:58:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I attempted a rundown a while back (6+ / 0-)

      here.

      Upon revising my list, I got this, but I of course welcome further corrections from those more knowledgeable about NY politics.  From my admittedly limited perspective, it looks like the GOP/IDC will be hard-pressed to save their majority this fall.

      Offense

      SD-08 (open by Fuschillo): The bluest seat on Long Island (Obama-Romney 55.7%-43.3%) and it's open?  Democrats absolutely must win this seat to have a chance at a majority.

      SD-03 (open by Zeldin): Second bluest seat on Long Island (Obama won it 55.4%-43.4%) and also open unless Zeldin drops back down from his congressional race.

      SD-07 (Martins): Obama won it 53.8%-45.2%.  Martins has only barely won twice in a row.

      SD-06 (Hannon): Obama won it 54.7%-44.3%.  Despite being a 40-year veteran, Hannon almost lost in 2012.  Third bluest on Long Island.

      SD-40 (Ball): Obama only won it 50.6%-48.1%, the smallest margin for a seat on the target list, but Ball has only won by tiny margins both times, and now he's considering jumping ship to another office.

      SD-39 (Larkin): Obama won it 52.7%-46%.  Larkin only won by 5 points in 2012.  He's 86 years old and has to be a strong retirement possibility.

      SD-04 (Boyle): Obama won it 52.9%-45.9%.  Boyle held this open seat in 2012 by a 6 point margin.  Could be competitive again.

      SD-22 (Golden): Obama won it 51.9%-46.8%.  Golden won easily in 2012 but he could still face a tough challenge.

      SD-60 (Grisanti): Obama won it 56%-42%.  Convenient redistricting saved him from his former 70%+ Obama seat that he won in a fluke, but he still sits in a pretty blue seat.  I don't know if he will be challenged strongly, but he should.

      SD-34 (Klein): Obama won it 74-25%.  Oliver Koppell may potentially primary out the IDC leader, which is functionally a pickup.

      SD-11 (Avella): Obama won it 64-35%.  Avella recently joined the IDC/GOP, and may not be entrenched enough to avoid a primary challenge.

      Defense

      SD-41 (Gipson): Obama won it 53.3%-45%.  We only snagged this because the Conservative Party siphoned 14% from the previous GOP incumbent's totals.  Could be a tough one, but hopefully the district is blue enough to keep Gipson.

      SD-46 (Tkaczyk): Obama won it 53.6%-44.3%.  We won this open seat by just 18 votes after a recount.  A tough win, but hopefully an easier hold.

      •  Thanks for the link. (0+ / 0-)

        If you figure that Democrats aren't maxed out on LI, since the area is never contested at the presidential level, you could believe, like I do, that the voters are there to cobble together a coalition to beat some of these guys.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:51:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Long Island is ripe for the taking (7+ / 0-)

          Republicans might have arguably dummymandered Long Island by taking two counties, both won by Obama, and trying to carve it up so they could win all 9 seats within.  I know why they did it, as historically they've had an iron grip there, and the 2010 GOP wave washed out the only Dem advances.  And the Long Island gerrymander held up in 2012.  But it was just barely, as they almost lost 3 seats.  Now with a couple retirements adding to their woes, they face difficult holds on 5 of their 9 Long Island seats.

          A more forward-thinking gerrymander might have conceded Democrats a vote sink, or maybe even two to protect the rest.  But with such a narrow grip on the chamber, they couldn't afford to do that either (and obviously they'd have to toss an incumbent overboard to do that).

          I don't envy the NY senate Republicans right now.  They're stuck collaborating with a few Democrats for control, will never see their party win statewide office (or the Assembly) again, have much more defense than offense, and seem to exist mainly to continue their existence rather than push conservative policies or do anything meaningful.

  •  LA-6: Edwin Edwards is in! (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.nola.com/...

    I know he won't win, etc. etc., but he could help turnout in Acadiana.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 11:27:15 AM PDT

  •  28,000 sigs is a lot (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Jacob1145, redrelic17

    In Massachusetts, we require 10,000 statewide and 2,000 for US House and candidates need to have a pretty good ground game (or hire professional gathers) to meet that requirement.

  •  Regarding the UT elections change (0+ / 0-)

    The party delegates were terrified that the well-funded Count My Vote group were going to destroy the caucus system entirely, so they grudgingly accepted the compromise measure. I have no idea what this will change, but then I've always been a Utah Dem guy, and we were never the focus of Count My Vote for obvious reasons. We were kind of dragged along.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:05:49 PM PDT

  •  The new 538.com (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I just discovered it; Nate put up the new site's manifesto just today (at 5:38 this morning.)

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/

    The coverage seems much broader based than before; unsurprisingly, since it's partnered with ESPN, there's lots of sports as well as politics, but the team (with a much larger writing staff than Nate had before) seems to have something to say about just about all manner of topics.

    38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:15:10 PM PDT

  •  Dems strategy in Indiana Legislative races (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Jacob1145

    seems to be in the mode of Supt of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz. They are running 12 candidates that are in education. I would hope they would run closely with Ritz. There are also a few other GOP seats Dems will target outside of those (Hamm, Sullivan), but still need to fill several open slots before June 30. Republicans are likely to target up to 6 Dem held seats (Goodin, Battles, Macer, VanDenburgh, Candelaria-Rearon, and Hale). Howey also seems bullish on Dem chances in the Southern Indiana State Senate seats. Some rare good news for Hoosier Dems.

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 12:22:02 PM PDT

    •  What about targeting Sen. Delph's seat? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145

      He's too extreme to hold a light red seat.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:46:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is a target (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Jacob1145

        Though it is going to much redder in an off year election and Obama outperformed local Dems in the area. Dems are likely better off working on the 4 Southern Indiana seats (2D, 2R). Delph is also a very strong campaigner, despite his being nuts.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 03:39:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  JD Ford is running against Delph. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        He's 31 and openly gay. My partner and I attended a fundraiser for him on Saturday night. Delph keeps on starting twitter wars against local news people and others - especially when HjR-3 was being debated. He's hurting himself substantially. I don't think heels going to damage himself enough - at least he hasn't yet. His district comprises part of the Circle of Ignorance (parts of Carmel and Zionsville) into Marion County (blue Pike Township and purple Wayne Township). He could be defeated. I'd say this seat is likely republican but could change.

        28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

        by IndyLiberal on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:35:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  DCCyclone won't be happy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, jncca

    And this is a lame move: "Northern Virginia Democrats Cancel 10th District Convention."

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:02:08 PM PDT

    •  Why is it lame? (0+ / 0-)

      Only two candidates filed and one dropped out.

      •  So what happens? (0+ / 0-)

        Do they forgo everything and have a simple acclamation and granting of nomination?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:44:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As discussed elsewhere (0+ / 0-)

        It's an opportunity for activists to meet Foust, get excited about the race, earn some press coverage, meet their fellow activists, etc. Also, with Comstock likely to win the firehouse primary that same day, it would ensure that the next day's news coverage would not be devoted exclusively to her. In fact, it could contrast nicely: Comstock forced to fend off nutters like Sideshow Bob, but the entire Dem Party rallying around Foust.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 09:05:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I got the e-mail the other day (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin

      No Democrat except Foust qualified for the ballot and is still in, so they cancelled, and while I understand the simple reason for it, we miss a useful organizing opportunity.

      Won't decide the outcome, just a micro-mistake, but still......

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 03:28:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But Would Anyone Show Up? (0+ / 0-)

        except people already involved in local politics, ie people already on county Democratic volunteer lists and/ or people on the Foust campaign's volunteer lists?

        To me it doesn't seem that many non Democratic Party activists would show up for a one candidate convention.

        Do you see it differently?

        •  Free press, too. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          An endorsement, even an uncontested one, gives Foust some news coverage.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:42:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The point is to get activists to show up (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PassionateJus, gabjoh

          No we wouldn't bring in anyone who hasn't already been involved in party politics.

          But not everyone involved in party politics would necessarily think to volunteer, or volunteer as much.  Or recruit other volunteers.  Or give money.

          An event like this can be motivating for people.

          Plus, as jncca points out, there is free news coverage, and there is some positive hype.

          This isn't a big deal, we're not going to win or lose over this, but's a little thing among many little things can cumulatively can help.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 07:22:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  OMG Michelle Nunn is a DINO! (20+ / 0-)

    We obviously need a liberal Dem running for the Georgia senate seat instead.  This diary really made my LOL.  Gotta love delusional front page DKos election diaries.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    •  At least the commenters are reality-based. (4+ / 0-)

      I used to go to front page diaries, but it pisses me off too much these days.  I don't even like reading the morning digest sometimes because they post there.

      •  Their newfound love of Putin... (5+ / 0-)

        ...and their outright cheerleading of European invasion really makes my blood boil.

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:18:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Better to not "go there" (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, SaoMagnifico, James Allen, gabjoh

          It's not a cut and dry issue as you characterize it and it's obvious from your comment that I fall into your "cheerleading/Putin lover" category, which is entirely false and a terrible mischaracterization as I've stated numerous times.  Leave it for the appropriate threads.

          •  Rec'd (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje

            Despite the fact we don't see eye-to-eye on this particular issue -- or seemingly many issues beyond our mutual support of Democratic candidates -- it's important to maintain a bright line between DKE and unrelated policy discussions.

            Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 03:17:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  No, I don't put you in that category... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, Gygaxian, PassionateJus, ChadmanFL

            Despite our heated discussions in other diaries, I respect and completely understand your desire not to get involved. I apologize for getting emotional on the issue.  Despite Ukraine being far away, It hits close to home for me.  It would be crazy not to understand and value progressives who have a strong isolationist sentiment, especially after the country's disastrous campaigns in the Middle East.  Believe it or not, I struggle with this dilemma myself. There are many others on the site, though, who are actively cheering Russia on--something I simply cannot understand, considering the Russian government's repression of values that progressives hold dear.

            "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

            by LordMike on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:11:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The answer is very clear (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              PassionateJus

              They don't live in Russia. Most of them would run out of there in one week if that happened. It's very convenient to be an isolationist, Putin's follower or whatever if you know for sure that nothing threatens your comfortable life.

    •  The diary poster seems to personally dislike Nunn (4+ / 0-)

      Which is yet another reason why I don't like going to the front page anymore. Some of this people think we can get better than Jim Matheson in Utah by running a far-left (not even a moderate Dem slightly to the left of Matheson).

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:01:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "Front Page" (10+ / 0-)

      To be fair, the comment section seemed to reinforce a comment I made about three weeks ago.

      I think DKE has developed a cliqueish image of a so-called front-pager - one who advocates for unwinnable races and who doesn't understand how politics or elections work. From my observations, the vast bulk of the community, while being overtly progressive and wanting for a more progressive politics, are realistic about our country's politics. This describes DKE just as much as it does the front page. While many front-pagers may not have as nuanced an understanding of politics as many DKE members have, I think the bulk of these members are just as realistic as DKE members.
      Of the 15 commenters in that diary (including the diarist), 12 were supportive of Nunn's candidacy and only three were opposed. The other two opposed to Nunn barely justified their positions, whereas most of Nunn's supporters were pretty firm and justified their support multiple times. I think that's a pretty representative sample of DK at-large - wanting a more progressive country, but knowing the limits of politics (the art of the possible, as Bismarck would put it). Excluding SaoMagnifico and WisJohn, the other 10 supporters weren't DKE regulars, yet were fully reasoned in their support of Nunn - not fitting the stereotype of a "front-pager".

      I don't mean to be a stickler about this. I just don't want to see DKE develop a broader clique mentality. It's one thing to make fun of pundits who actually get payed non-monopoly money to act like Scott Brown is a serious threat to Jeanne Shaheen. It's another to mock diaries like this (much less in other unrelated threads like this). It just creates meta that isn't particularly helpful. Maybe I'm alone in this opinion though.

    •  Exactly the reason (0+ / 0-)

      because of which i stopped even to look at front page. Nothing, but unabashed unrealistic ideology in most cases.

  •  ND-AL (15+ / 0-)

    http://www.inforum.com/...

    State Sen. George B. Sinner to challenge Freshman Rep. Kevin Cramer.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 01:47:42 PM PDT

  •  Mike Crapo? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag

    Yeah, I know it's pronounced CRAY-poh, but still . . .

    31, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

    by The Caped Composer on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 02:17:21 PM PDT

  •  Update in Hawaii state senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Gygaxian

    I mentioned awhile back that state Rep. Richard Fale (R) is aiming upwards and taking on veteran state Sen. Clayton Hee (D) in what is probably the only real chance Republicans have of getting a second state senator this year.  Hee was the only Democrat to get held to a less than 20 point win in 2012 (7 points in his case), though he faced a strong challenger in former state Rep. Colleen Meyer (R) in 2012.

    Well, looks like Meyer is running again anyway, setting up what could be a nasty GOP primary in a state where most races don't even have a single credible Republican.

    Anyway.  What developments are happening in all of your respective state legislative races?  I've seen some good summaries of Oregon, California, and Iowa recently (off the top of my head)...plenty others I'm still quite in the dark on.  What's happening in the Michigan House, do we have a chance at taking that chamber this November?  How about the Kentucky House, how is control looking?  Anyone know much about West Virginia?  Washington state?  New Hampshire Senate?

    •  Washington (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      I don't know about challengers to Steve Litzow, who represents a D+8 district or so and should be vulnerable based off that.  However, our chances there are hurt by Mark Miloscia's recent party switch; the former Democratic incumbent will be running as an R in a D+7 or so district with a decent amount of Dem midterm dropoff, so that seat is probably at least vulnerable.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:28:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Litzov is social moderate (0+ / 0-)

        (very much so by present party standards) and fiscal conservative. He is rather good fit for this affluent (but socially liberal) district.

        •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

          But D+8 is usually a bridge too far even then.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Tue Mar 18, 2014 at 01:01:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well , he needed to run (0+ / 0-)

            for reelection in 2012 (with Democratic-favorable turnout) and won with 54% of vote. That's as close to "unbeatable" as it can be in such district. And he doesn't need to run in 2014 - only in 2016..

  •  So who could retire next? (0+ / 0-)

    John King says that anonymous sources have a few more House retirements coming post-FL-13. Via PoliticalWire:

    Watch in the week or so ahead for a few more retirements by veteran House Democrats. I'm told the Florida special election results were the last straw for at least two and perhaps more House Democrats facing tough 2014 races. Leadership will make a run at persuading these lawmakers otherwise - but with hope of regaining the majority all but lost, watch the Capitol exits.
    So who could retire? And what would be the most harmful?
  •  The NRCC (0+ / 0-)

    Has been attacking Jim Himes (CT-04) recently, maybe they sniff an early retirement, and they have a backed candidate on their Young Guns list, Dan Debicella.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 03:33:29 PM PDT

  •  CO-03 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Gygaxian, pademocrat

    back to nothing.  Buffie McFadyen quit the race, just weeks after entering.  Sends this "Race to Watch" back to Safe GOP in my book.  Oh well.  Hopefully we have a strong candidate lined up in 2016.  This seat is quite winnable considering we took it in 2004.  There's an amount of downballot Dem strength that isn't reflected in Obama's numbers, although there is also potentially a real GOP shift happening in Pueblo.  Hard to say.

  •  My House thoughts at this stage (10+ / 0-)

    For all the prognosticators claiming 2014 is going to be a bloodbath for Democrats because Alex Sink lost by a narrow margin in a low-turnout special election in a gerrymandered Republican-tilting district after Democrats were outspent, generic ballot polls are inconclusive at best, and I think it's way too early to say which party (if any!) nets seats. That being said, I do think some seats are all but certain to change hands:

    Likely to go D→R:

    UT-04 (Matheson, retiring)
    NC-07 (McIntyre, retiring)

    Better than even chance to go D→R:

    NY-01 (Bishop)
    NY-21 (Owens, retiring)
    AZ-02 (Barber)
    WV-03 (Rahall)

    Other seats that could go D→R:

    AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
    CA-07 (Bera)
    CA-36 (Ruiz)
    CA-52 (Peters)
    NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
    MN-07 (Peterson)
    NH-02 (Kuster)
    FL-26 (Garcia)

    I'm not too worried about other House races at this point; I'm keeping an eye on some others, but I'm not very concerned about them yet.

    Likely to go R→D:

    CA-31 (Miller, retiring)

    Better than even chance to go R→D:

    CO-06 (Coffman)
    NY-11 (Grimm)
    FL-02 (Southerland)
    FL-13 (Jolly)

    Other seats that could go R→D:

    VA-10 (Wolf, retiring)
    IL-13 (Davis)
    IA-03 (Latham, retiring)
    OH-14 (Joyce)
    WV-02 (Capito, running for Senate)
    PA-06 (Gerlach, retiring)
    NJ-03 (Runyan, retiring)
    NE-02 (Terry)

    These go roughly in order of how likely I think a pickup is. As with Democratic-held seats, there are a number of potential sleepers I am keeping an eye on, including two or three races in Michigan that could go a little bit crazy if Gov. Snyder really starts to tank in the polls. I'd like to see Democrats press hard in seats like ID-02, AR-02, NM-02, and MT-AL, but I think the fundamentals will weigh us down in territory that red.

    So right now, I would probably expect Republicans to net one seat, but I think there are 16 more races (eight on each side) that I would describe as either tossups or leaning in favor of the incumbent party.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:03:24 PM PDT

    •  And if you're curious, rationale for odder picks (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, bythesea, pademocrat, Gygaxian

      I have a bad feeling about both NY-01 and AZ-02, where Republicans are putting up very strong candidates who I can only hope won't be nominated. I thought about including CA-52 for the same reason, but my gut tells me DeMaio is overrated and Rep. Scott Peters, who beat an incumbent last cycle and has been fairly uncontroversial in the House, is underrated.

      I'm glad Rep. Collin Peterson is seeking reelection, but I think he's in for the fight of his political life against Torrey Westrom. If Peterson had announced his retirement, MN-07 would be right there with UT-04 and NC-07 as a near-certain goner.

      Rep. Michael Grimm almost lost his hold on NY-11 in 2012, and since then, he's been the recipient of more bad press than any other member of Congress except for maybe Rep. Steve Stockman and ex-Rep. Trey Radel. Local media surely hates him after he physically threatened a reporter on camera after the State of the Union -- a clip I'm sure Staten Islanders and Brooklynites will have seared into their retinas by late October.

      I'm expecting some coattails for Charlie Crist, who I still think is going to trounce Gov. Rick Scott in November, and Democrats have an excellent candidate for FL-02 in Gwen Graham. If Alex Sink or Jessica Ehrlich run again in FL-13, I think freshly minted Rep. David Jolly is going to struggle to win a full term with higher turnout and hopefully a blowout on the top of the ticket.

      OH-14 seems to be flying under the radar of most pundits, but Michael Wager is a serious candidate, Rep. David Joyce is an accidental congressman, and the DCCC seems to be taking this race very seriously (Rep. Steve Israel said recently it is one of House Democrats' top four offensive targets). This race may hinge on the fortunes of Gov. John Kasich, who appears unable to pull away from Cty. Exec. Ed Fitzgerald.

      I vacillated back and forth on whether I really believe NE-02 is in play this year, and I was set to go with a list of just 12 seats I thought Democrats have a realistic chance of picking up this year -- but then I thought about how Rep. Lee Terry almost lost his seat in 2012 despite a near-total lack of investment by both the DCCC and OFA in the district and a serious money gap between Terry and John Ewing, who mounted a valiant challenge that received scant attention until it was too late. Democrats have landed a potentially much stronger candidate than Ewing in Brad Ashford, and even with midterm dropoff, I do think this could be the year Terry is finally sent packing.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:20:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hard to sear anything into the retinas of voters (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GradyDem, gabjoh

        in the NYC media market.  Just too damn expensive to run ads frequently enough to do that.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:30:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't disagree with a lot, but in MN-07 (0+ / 0-)

        Peterson didn't raise much last quarter. If he were a challenger I'd write him off based on how little he raised. Westrom raised like half as much, though. I'm not impressed.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 06:35:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Just my gut feeling at this point (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      House Net change of D+1 seat

      Rep Gains:
      AZ-02 (Barber)
      CA-52 (Peters)
      FL-26 (Garcia)
      NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
      NY-21 (Open) - Thanks for nominating a "some dude" Dem in a seat we have no business losing...
      NC-07 (Open)
      UT-04 (Open)
      WV-03 (Rahall) - I do think he'll finally be swept away in the tide of West Virginia's swing to the GOP.

      Dem Gains:
      CA-31 (Open)
      CO-06 (Coffman)
      FL-02 (Southerland)
      FL-13 (Jolly) - I have a funny feeling the special was a low turnout fluke more than anything else.
      IL-13 (Davis)
      IA-03 (Open)
      MI-01 (Benishek)
      NJ-03 (Open)
      NY-11 (Grimm)

      Senate net change of R+4 seats for a 51-49 Dem majority.

      Senate:
      GOP Gains - SD, WV, MT, AR, LA or AK (more likely LA)
      Dem Gain - KY or GA (more likely GA)

      Governor's Races:

      GOP Gain - AR
      Dem Gains - PA, ME, FL, MI

      Races I consider very close but leaning retention for party in power:

      GOP - AZ, OH, KS, WI
      Dem - IL, CT

      Governor's change of D+3

      •  When was the last time that many seats flipped (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL, SaoMagnifico

        in each direction?  It strikes me as implausible but I could be wrong.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:16:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It can happen (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome, SaoMagnifico, jncca

          Basically my scenario above is assuming 2014 is a VERY slightly pro-Dem year with Dems winning the congressional vote by roughly 2-4 points.

          The best parallel to this scenario is 2000.  Dems picked up 10 GOP seats, GOP picked up 9 Dem seats for a net change of D+1 seat.

          2000 might also be a good reverse parallel for the 2014 Senate.  In 2000 the election was fairly neutral nationally, and yet Dems gained a net 4 Senate seats because the playing field was in our favor.  Assuming 2014 is also neutral we might see the reverse, with a wash in the House but GOP gains of 4-5 Senate seats.

      •  For Senate races... (0+ / 0-)

        I think the GOP picks up South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, and Arkansas, while the Democrats pick up Georgia (I'm assuming Rep. Broun or Rep. Gingrey will be the Republican nominee), but there are a number of very close races that really could tip either way over the next few months.

        I agree with your gubernatorial predictions in full.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:30:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  MI-01 (0+ / 0-)

      MI-1 really has to be on that list of seats that could go R-to-D.  Snyder would really have to win big (ten points or more) for the GOP to keep this seat.  Snyder's pension tax really hit hard, up there, which is probably why the race was so close in 2012, and would have went our way had we a better candidate that year.  Jerry Cannon is a legit candidate, and the Dems are expecting to pick up the remaining state house seat it lost up there in 2010 (it'd picked up one more it lost in 2010 in 2012).

      I think the only question remaining is how hard the GOP and third parties are going to fight to retain this one.  They came in the last weeks of 2012 to pull Benishek's lifeless campaign across the finish line.  Will they do this again, and with state Dems actually concentrating on it this time, and with increasingly strong state-wide Dems at the top of the ticket, will it even be enough?  

      I just have a hard time seeing MI-01 as anything other than a pure toss-up that is definitely a Lean D if Schauer and Peters continue to increase their numbrs.  And, it's should definitely be on anyone's list of "coulds".  

      MI-07 is the next one in line, but until we actually see some more polling on that one, that's definitely still Lean R.  I'm bullish on Pam Byrnes, but I have heard very little from this race.  Schauer is popular in Eaton County, which he represented when he was in Congress.  So if he can increase turnout, this may also be a "could" pick-up.  But, I want to see a bit more polling and fundraising numbers on this one.  

      Much, much further out is MI-11, and I truly believe this one only gets cracked in a Dem wave year and/or with a really bad Republican candidate.  Were Bentivolio likely to survive, this would be a race to watch, but with moneybags David Trott likely to be the nominee, we probably shouldn't even waste any resources on this one.  You'd be better going after Upton, if you had money to waste, than Trott.

      •  Governor coattails are not worth much if anything. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        Cannon will win or lose on his (and Benishek's merits).  

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:17:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That was my point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian

          That was kind of my point.  Though, I'd argue that while Snyder can't matter much into this congressional race in a positive way since he lacks a personality cult and since he will be judged on his actions, I do believe it's entirely possible that the challenging state-wide candidates for governor and senate can have a disproportionately large effect on this race.  

          Snyder could have a point or two difference on this race either way, but only if he gets up really high or falls really low.  Peters and Schauer as challengers, however, could move this race many points in a positive way.  It really just depends on how the state-wide races end up being defined.  I guess what I'm arguing is the difference between being an incumbent and a challenger, particularly an incumbent clearly on the defense.

      •  MI-01 is one of my "on notice" races... (0+ / 0-)

        But I don't expect to win it with a weaker candidate than we fielded in 2012.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 10:28:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Here's that Georgia map I was talking about (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Setsuna Mudo

    Clean GOP gerrymander with no VRA.  2 Dem seats plus a Tossup for Barrow.
    2008 Pvi

    Kingston: R+9
    Bishop: R+9
    Westmoreland: R+11, trending D
    Johnson + Lewis: Super safe D
    Price: R+13
    Woodall: R+15, trending D
    Scott: R+8
    Collins: Super safe R
    Broun: R+9
    Gingrey: R+12
    Barrow: R+9
    Open Peach color: R+15
    Graves: Super safe R

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 04:40:16 PM PDT

  •  Christie scandal reaches campaign strategist: (10+ / 0-)

    http://www.nj.com/...

    And once Stepien and Kelly's misuse of the 5th Amendment is struck down and they have to give over public documents, more info should come out.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 05:59:01 PM PDT

  •  MI Sen: MI Dems push TLL to cancel Christie event (7+ / 0-)

    This speaks more about how toxic Christie has become than it does to the MI Senate race, but MI Dems are pushing Republican candidate Terri Lynn Land to cancel a fundraising event with Christie on Wednesday.  TLL has been on the defensive for some time, now, and the pressure is only being turned up.

    •  More MI political news (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, James Allen, Gygaxian

      Man, if it hasn't been a busy news day for Michigan politics.  Mark Schauer is to accept the (much expected) endorsement of the Michigan AFL-CIO in downtown Detroit at a rally on Wednesday.  The vote by both the union's executive board and general board was unanimous.

      “Mark Schauer is a fierce advocate for the middle class who fought to save Michigan auto jobs while in Congress,” said Michigan AFL-CIO President Karla Swift in a prepared statement. “Mark is ready to fight for students and seniors as governor. This is in sharp contrast to Rick Snyder, who cut school funding and taxed seniors in order to give tax cuts to corporations, even if they ship jobs overseas.”
      Furthermore, MLive.com released more of the numbers from today's Lambert, Edwards & Associates/Denno Research.  Snyder's personal favorability is virtually even at 43 favorable/ 42 unfavorable.  However, his job approval is squarely underwater at 41/57 disapproval.  The poll splits it between excellent, good, fair, and poor.  

      Hilariously, Snyder's people are whining about the sample, saying that it's too Democratic, which is crazy talk when you compare it to previous elections with the party indentification remaining remarkably consistent even in huge years for Democrats.  If there is every any change in Michigan, it's how many independents decide to identify as Republicans in any given year.  Democratic numbers remain consistent at around 40% of the electorate every time.  They are arguing the sample should only be two or three points more Dem than GOP, which I doubt was even the case in this state even during the 2010 Red Wave.  Funny enough, if anything, the sample is about a point or two lower on the Dems than past elections.

  •  Shaheen needs to make "people's pledge" issue (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, Gygaxian, LordMike

    into a television ad because it would allow her to highlight what Brown said as Massachusetts Senator/candidate (ie hit on carpetbaggerism without being overt) while also tying him to Koch Bros and Rove dark money and how hypocritical he was - how it was good for Massachusetts but now he needs outside money to try and buy NH senate seat.  Hell throw his "It's the people's seat" remark in his face as well - say "It's the people of New Hampshire's seat, not to be bought by outside Koch and Rove interests parachuting in Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown as their mercenary"

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Mar 17, 2014 at 09:10:54 PM PDT

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