With all the glum feelings I've been seeing about the midterms lately, I want to point to some trends in the national electorate that look like they'll favor the Democratic Party in the long term. I would refer you to UConn's Public Opinion Archives, which have an awesome collection of nationwide Presidential exit polls dating back to 1976.
The most promising trend for us is the ever-declining share of the national electorate made up by white voters over time. Watch the white vote go down just about every year (in parentheses is the percentage of the white vote received by the Democratic candidate):
1976: 89 (48%)
1980: 88 (36% - an independent received 8%)
1984: 86 (34%)
1988: 85 (40%)
1992: 87 (39% - an independent received 21%)
1996: 83 (44% - an independent received 9%)
2000: 81 (42%)
2004: 77 (41%)
2008: 74 (43%)
2012: 72 (39%)
On average, the white vote has gone down (and conversely, the minority vote has gone up) by 1.9% every four years. Let's be conservative and say the trend is slowing down, as it appears to be, and use a figure of 1.5%. If the trend were to hold (which, of course, it may not), then this is what we'll be looking at in the near future:
2016: 71
2020: 69
2024: 68
2028: 66
2032: 65
Since 2000, the white vote has held steady at about 40% for Democrats. Let's now look at how the black vote has changed over time:
1976: 9 (83%)
1980: 10 (83%)
1984: 10 (91%)
1988: 10 (89%)
1992: 8 (83% - an independent received 7%)
1996: 10 (84% - an independent received 4%)
2000: 10 (90%)
2004: 11 (88%)
2008: 13 (95%)
2012: 13 (93%)
The black vote held steady at around 10%, until rising suddenly by 3% over the 8 years between 2000 and 2008. This is probably the Obama effect; we'll have to see if the increase holds over time. It has also never slipped below 80% for Democrats, and has hovered around 90% even before Obama's candidacy. The black vote is by far the most steady of all demographics, and I think it's safe to say that it will remain steady in the near future. Now let's look the Hispanic vote:
1976: 1 (82%)
1980: 2 (56% - an independent received 7%)
1984: 3 (66%)
1988: 3 (70%)
1992: 2 (61% - an independent received 14%)
1996: 5 (73% - an independent received 6%)
2000: 7 (62%)
2004: 8 (53%)
2008: 9 (67%)
2012: 10 (71%)
I'm only going to refer to the data since 2000, since the sample size is rather small prior to that. The group swung heavily towards Bush in 2004, but also swung towards Obama (and away from the overall electorate) in 2012. This tells me that Hispanics are not quite locked in to a voting pattern yet, but do definitely favor Democrats. I think we'll need to see the 2016 data to see if they stay in the 70's or drop back down again without Obama on the ballot, but the steady 1% rise in their share of the electorate seems like a definite trend. If it continues, this is how it will play out in the near future:
2016: 11
2020: 12
2024: 13
2028: 14
2032: 15
That is an absolutely massive chunk of the electorate, and if they continue to support Democrats at levels over two thirds, it is a serious problem for the Republican Party.
Of course, this is not new knowledge to anyone who follows politics. But the fascinating story told by these numbers is that as the electorate grows more minority-heavy, Democrats are less effected by their 40-ish% ceiling with white voters. Obama received 2% less of the white vote the second time around compared to Kerry, but outperformed Kerry by 3% overall. A Democrat can get 40% of the white vote and still win comfortably; if that holds, how is it possible for Republicans to win the White House?
Of course, people will say that no party has ever held the White House for more than x terms, and that it almost never happens for more than 3 in a row. I'm not saying it necessarily will. But what I am saying is that the racial component to elections is a relatively new phenomenon, and it may lead to trends we haven't seen before.
Thoughts?