Suzy Khimm explains a new paper:
Three Princeton University economists found that only 11% of Americans who are long-term unemployed find steady, full-time work a year later, according to data from 2008 to 2012. What’s more, only 39% have found work at all during that year—even for a brief period of time, “highlighting that the long-term unemployed frequently are displaced soon after they gain reemployment,” the authors Alan Krueger, a former Obama economic adviser, Judd Cramer, and David Cho wrote in their paper<?a>.
What has happened to everyone else? Of those unemployed for six months or longer, about 30% are still looking for work and failing to find it a year later. But even more people have simply stopped looking for work altogether: 34% are no longer in the labor force, according to the paper presented at the Brookings Institute Thursday.
Danny Vinik at The New Republic writes The Most Frightening Result of the Great Recession: Jobless Americans Who Have Given Up:
For months now a debate has been raging in economic circles about the long-term unemployed. One group argues that the current unemployment rate, currently at 6.7 percent, is unrepresentative of the labor market because it doesn’t include the millions of long-term unemployed: discouraged workers who have left the labor market. The other side argues that the labor market has segmented—that those with jobs and the short-term unemployed compete for work in one labor market that is tightening, while the long-term unemployed compete in another where jobs are scarce.
A new Brookings Institute paper by Princeton economists Alan B. Krueger, Judd Cramer, and David Cho provides the strongest evidence to date that the latter group is correct. If so, the authors argue, then “a concerted effort will be needed to raise the employment prospects of the long-term unemployed.” In other words, Congress needs to act.
Blast from the Past. At Daily Kos on this date in 2011—Trumping Pawlenty: The Donald gets more media coverage than T-Paw:
|Byron Tau points out yet another example revealing the weakness of the GOP's 2012 field: even though Tim Pawlenty has methodically planned his presidential campaign for more than a year and just formally announced his exploratory committee, Donald Trump has still managed to get more coverage from television networks over the past month.
According to Nexis search of CNN, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CBS transcripts, Pawlenty has gotten mentioned on 72 broadcasts while Trump has made into 79. So when Republicans fret about their prospects for defeating President Obama, they've got something to worry about. Their two biggest names are reality TV shows stars who probably won't end up joining the race. Meanwhile, real candidates like Pawlenty manage to inspire little more than yawns.
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