I must begin with a hat tip to the stupendously obvious click machine that is the Fluff Po. Just when I think they can't get any more craven with their headlines, along comes this one: "Nate Silver predicts Big GOP win."
You are then linked to FiveThirtyEight where the real head line is: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forcast: Gop Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/...
Below is the beginning, and end of the article. There is MUCH in-between, Silver's usual thorough job of backing up his assessment, and worth reading for any poll junky.
We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
Bold is mine.
So our forecast might be thought of as a Republican gain of six seats — plus or minus five. The balance has shifted slightly toward the GOP. But it wouldn’t take much for it to revert to the Democrats, nor for this year to develop into a Republican rout along the lines of 2010.
I hope there are better, fabulously progressive Democratic candidates stepping up to run, and I hope folks who blog here are doing everything they can to help make that happen in their off line time. I hope the Democratic Party gets its shit together fast and furious w/better messaging, and more commitment to party principals.
But at about 6 months out from the mid terms, we've got what we've got, no matter how angry or disappointed it makes any progressive. And with every day that passes, the only real solution is to put the bulk of our energies into GOTV.
I hold absolutely no truck with the idea that it's a good idea to punish centrist Democrats by losing the Senate. If we lose the senate, double down on the horrific results of 2010, I will have no interest in arguing about whether the base depressed itself or not, which progressives voted and which didn't, who held their nose and voted, or any other combination of such I've seen chewed on like an old bone here.
We lost in 2010 because not enough Democrats came out to vote. That's an indisputable fact. Reading Silver's article I felt a nasty chill of Deja Vu from the months before November 2010.
To me, the idea of losing the senate because not enough Democrats come out to vote pisses me off more than anything else I've read here in the recent spate of pie wars,
and scares me more too.
Two more years of endless attempts to repeal Obamacare, maybe with an impeachment effort thrown in, while folks all over this country suffer, REFUELED AND STRENGTHENED, because not enough Democrats came out to vote.
And I hope that as the days left till the mid terms fade away, this site will put its considerable voice, energy and efforts into doing everything we can to see that doesn't happen.
UPDATE
First of all, a real hat tip to ericlewise for this link. Was not aware of this, well worth the read, and encouraging.
http://www.nytimes.com/....
Second of all, I will note that every show I watched on MSNBC today talked about this article by Nate. I do find it somewhat curious that it attracted far less attention here. This is not abut my diary. At all. I am very happy to have had the discussion with those who joined in, whether in agreement or not. Some will say it's too early to be concerned, but I'm not of that opinion. I'm also not of the opinion that Nate's article is something to freak out about.
But I will repeat, I do look forward to when this site rumbles into fighting mode. Hope it happens.