Republicans have a strong electoral advantage in Texas. To give you an idea of just how big this advantage is, its worth considering that in 2008
Gallup found Democrats holding a slight edge in terms of party registration (2 points), but in that years general election, President Obama loss the Texas vote by roughly a million votes:
2008 Texas Presidential Election Results
McCain Obama
4,479,328 3,528,633
As we know, 2008 was a high water mark for President Obama. His message of “change” and “hope” resonated deeply with an American electorate which had grown tired of war, and Republicans more generally.
Since his inauguration in January of 2009, Obama’s popularity and support in the polls has fluctuated considerably, and have since leveled in the low to mid 40s. The Democratic Party has likewise taken a beating in the polls, with the public only marginally favoring Democrats over Republicans (this should worry Democrats as it’s difficult to imagine what else Republicans can do to become any more unpopular).
In general, however, the American people are greatly disgusted with both political parties. That said, elections will continue to be held in this country, and until there a viable third-party emerges, voters will continue to be asked to make a choice between Democrats and Republicans. When asked to make a similar choice in 2012, Texas voters again favored the Republican. In this election, the results in Texas followed a broader national trend of slightly weaker support for Obama:
2012 Texas Presidential Election Results
Romney Obama
4,569,843 3,308,124
For some time now, election observers have noted the growing diversification of the American electorate. In 2012, for instance, the overall share of the eligible voting population in Texas that identified as Hispanic/Latino stood at 28%. By 2016, this figure is projected to grow to 31%. And that’s really good news for Democrats in the Lone Star state, particularly when one considers that fewer than 1 in 4 Texas white males voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
While many political strategist expect Texas to become a competitive electoral state, most don’t expect this transition towards purple to occur for another 8 to 12 years. But that doesn’t mean that it can’t. Indeed, under the right circumstances, I believe it’s possible for Democrats to win Texas in 2016. At the very least, we can certainly make the race competitive and force Republicans to spend invaluable time and money defending their most important state.
In order for Democrats to turn Texas blue, three things need to happen. Democrats need to retain their present Democratic coalition in Texas (which they should). They need to capture a larger share of the women’s vote (Wendy Davis and the Republican war on women should help with that), and they need improve their GOTV and grassroots mobilization efforts. In particular, they need to give Hispanic and Latino voters a reason to vote for them.
On this latter point, Hispanic and Latino voters are already of the opinion that Democrats are better than Republicans at better representing the interests of their community (sorry Rubio).
But one way for Democrats to really excite the Hispanic/Latino vote is by having a proven Latino leader on the ticket (I say proven to reflect the fact that Democrats/Hillary can’t just pluck a Palin out of nowhere. Voters will see through that).
Fortunately for Democrats (and Hillary), there are many great Hispanic/Latino running-mates to choose from. I personally like San Antonio Mayor, Julian Castro. Not only would he give the 2016 ticket a big bounce, but being a well-known and respected Texas leader, he might just also be able to put the state in play in 2016.
Thoughts?