The mainstream media and well learned individuals alike have spelled doom and gloom for liberals in the Senate in this upcoming midterm election. They look at a map that is slanted toward the Republican party, but ignore the signs under the periphery that indicate things may not be trending as conservative as we thought.
A case study I will look at very briefly is a Senate race in Kansas. Now, let me say from the start, I do not think it is incredibly likely that the Democratic Party will win a seat in Kansas in 2014. What I am arguing, however, is that it is possible.
More below the fold.
Senator Pat Roberts has represented the state of Kansas in Congress since 1981. Until 1997 that was in the House of Representatives, but now he served in the Senate where he is running for his fourth term. He is fairly well liked, and has won election with incredibly high margins. But he has never really had a strong competitor. Indeed, some say that he was almost handed his seat when Kansas son Bob Dole led the GOP ticket in 1996.
Now he has some problems to contend with.
Senator Roberts is being challenged from the right, but a Dr. Milton Wolf. Wolf is a "doctor, not a politician" (why he's seeking public office then, is anybody's bet) who stands for completely repealing the progress made by the Affordable Care Act awell as dismantling all medical social welfare in the entire United States. Wolf pledges to be the "next Ted Cruz". He is backed by the Senate Conservative Fund and the Madison Project -- major tea party support groups.
Exciting, huh?
Initial polls had Wolf trailing Roberts by a whooping 54 points, but things are changing.
Wolf has begun to bring up points about Roberts' Kansas residency (or lack thereof) and those points are starting to stick. Roberts is now down to only a 26 point lead.
Now, granted, 26 points is 26 points. That's quite a bit of ground to make up, and Wolf has shown he doesn't have the world's savvyest political skills. The smart money is still on Roberts by a long shot.
But the smart money hasn't always been right when it comes to Republican primaries.
So the question becomes: what if Wolf wins the primary?
A PPP poll has the race between Wolf and the Democrat Taylor a statistical tie
What happens then? Nobody knows. While Kansas is a notoriously safe state for Republicans at the national level, we all surely remember that democrat Kathleen Sebelius was elected as Governor in this state, not once, but twice.
I understand that articles like these have alot of hypotheticals (and again, I'm not even saying this scenario is likely). But election speculating is always about hypotheticals, and always about assumptions. Today I am challenging the assumption that the tea party is done botching races up for the Republican Party. I guess we will see what happens now.