Polls have been taken and an overwhelming majority of residents in the Donetsk region still want to remain with Ukraine. This is different than in Crimea, which was only part of Ukraine for slightly over 20 years after having been part of Russia for over 200 before that.
Whether the occupants of the building are wholly representative of the larger Donbass region, which includes Donetsk, is unclear. A public opinion poll released on Wednesday by the Donetsk Institute for Social Research and Political Analysis found that only 4.7 percent of local residents want a separate Donetsk state, and only 26.5 percent of residents support the pro-Russian rallies.
This means that the Ukrainian people should allow the referendum that the protestors are demanding with two stipulations -- it should allow ample opportunity for organizers to run campaigns and win the hearts and minds of the people. The other is that there should be international observers present and protections for journalists put in place to ensure that the process is free and fair.
The ultimatum that the government issued to protestors in the Donetsk administration building has come and went with no action taken. Both the US and Russia called for restraint, which may have caused the parties to back off.
But the main question is, will the people of Ukraine, especially the East, accept the authority of the central government? Polls suggest the answer is yes. But the government has promised its citizens that things would get better for the last 20 years. And it hasn't -- things have gotten worse. Wages, pensions, and the standard of living are better in Russia, which is why there is so much agitation for Donetsk to join.
Now that the US has manipulated the situation in a way which stacks the deck in favor of pro-Western politicians going forward (since Crimea won't get to vote for a pro-Russian candidate), the responsibility for the well-being of the Ukrainian government falls on the US. We have an obligation to do what we did following World War II and put together a Marshall Plan for Ukraine. If that means we have to spend $100 billion in order to stabilize Ukraine, then that's what we have to do.
The problem is that even an IMF bailout will not help Ukraine, since they owe $16 billion to the Russians. That means that we have to give them much more in order to enable the Ukrainian government to get back on their feet again. The government can't have it both ways -- they can't proclaim solidarity with the Ukrainian people and then turn around and do nothing.
The alternative will be a failed state. Then, either one of two things will happen, and possibly both. Either Ukraine will fall into a state of anarchy and civil war, where might makes right, and split up into numerous tiny fiefdoms similar to what happened to Libya or Somalia. Or Russia might decide to go to war to collect their $16 billion debts. Then, the $18 billion that the IMF loaned out will just go right down the drain.
The President has nothing to lose by pitching a plan to bail out the Ukrainian government similar to what we did with the Marshall Plan. If the Republicans don't go along, then they will have to explain to their constituents how they just sold out Ukraine to the Russians. The ads against them will play themselves during the next election.