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A poll worker hands a sticker to a voter at a polling place in Charlotte, North Carolina October 27, 2012. REUTERS/Chris Keane
If African Americans vote this November, Democrats hold the Senate.
The headline may be overstating things a little, but probably not: in a Senate chamber that may be decided by one or two seats, African-American voters could prove decisive in Democratic hopes to maintain control.

Democrats are certainly focused heavily on this year's ground game, and African-American turnout is a big part of that.

The Democrats’ plan to hold on to their narrow Senate majority goes by the name “Bannock Street project.” It runs through 10 states, includes a $60 million investment and requires more than 4,000 paid staff members [...]

They hope to make the 2014 midterm election more closely resemble a presidential election year, when more traditional Democratic constituencies — single women, minorities and young voters — turn out to vote in higher numbers, said Guy Cecil, the committee’s executive director.

This is good stuff, because:
“Television is a fundamentally persuasive medium, and by transferring those resources to targeted mobilization, you see a party whose path to victory goes through changing the electorate, not through winning over the opinion of typical off-year voters,” Mr. Issenberg said. “Campaigns are realizing that the smartest way to win the next vote is by mobilizing a nonvoter than by trying to win over a voter.”
In other words, stop chasing after those "undecided" or "independent" voters, and focus on getting our supporters to the polls. There are more of us than there are of them. If we turn out, we win. The DSCC certainly appreciates that and is pouring real money into the ground game.

Head below the fold for a look at the states that could be decided by the African-American vote.

Louisiana (32 percent of population)

African Americans may make up nearly one third of the state's population, and they're the entire reason Sen. Mary Landrieu is in office. She won the black vote 96-2, while losing the white vote 65-33. Democrats estimate that 185,000 African Americans voted in 2012 who did not vote in 2010, and another 228,000 are not registered to vote.

Incidentally, Romney won Louisiana by 17 points, which is a blowout. But in the popular vote, he won by just 300,000. A more robust African-American turnout wouldn't change the results given the extreme GOP bent of the state's white voters, but it would make for a much more competitive environment. And given how close this election is expected to be, Democrats will need as many of those votes as they can bank.

Georgia (30 percent of population)

With polls showing the race neck and neck between Democrat Michelle Nunn and a gaggle of assorted GOP crazies, picking off this Republican-held open seat would crush the GOP's Senate dreams. I've seen estimates between 572,000 and 700,000 unregistered African Americans in the state. Democrats estimate that another 375,000 African Americans voted in 2012 but not in 2010.

In 2008, Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss won his seat in a runoff by 57-43. Not very close, right? In the popular vote, the difference was 300,000 votes. President Barack Obama lost the state by eight points in 2012. The popular vote difference was 300,000 votes.

You can do the math.

North Carolina (21 percent of population)

Unlike Georgia and Louisiana, the Obama campaign worked hard in 2008 and 2012 to identify, register, and turnout hundreds of thousands of African Americans. The challenge here will be to minimize off-year dropoff. There are no 2010 exit polls for North Carolina, so we don't have precise data to point to, but of course 2010 was a brutal year for Democrats in the state, not so much in 2008 or the evenly matched 2012. Virginia proved last year that it could maintain African-American turnout in a non-presidential election. Dems are working hard to repeat that success in the Tarheel State.

Arkansas (15 percent of population)

While African Americans are 15 percent of the state's population, they were 12 percent of voters in 2008 and 11 percent in 2010 (no exit polling available for 2012). Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor is the most likely incumbent to lose in 2014. His chances go to zero if black voters don't turn out.

Kentucky (8 percent)

We've all seen the polling showing a neck and neck race against incumbent Sen. and Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell. While making up eight percent of the population, African Americans were just six percent of the 2010 electorate. Would another two points be enough to make up Democrat Jack Conway's 155,000-vote gap against the winner, Rand Paul? No. But we're seeing a much tighter race this year, so those extra points will be far more important.

African-American voters also hit double digits in Virginia (19 percent, though it won't be competitive this year) and Michigan (14 percent). Core base turnout is critical. If African Americans (and Latinos, Asians, single women, and young voters) turn out, we hold the Senate and do so easily. But that won't happen. Our job is to make sure we bleed as little as possible, thus minimizing our potential losses.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 08:50 AM PDT.

Also republished by Black Kos community.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The key to this is going to be (63+ / 0-)

    continuing the movement from 2012 to point out to AAs how Republicans are systematically trying to deny them the vote.  It backfired on the GOP in 2012, as AA turnout soared,  and it can continue to backfire this year.

    I’ve said before, I will always work with anyone who is willing to make this law work even better. But the debate over repealing this law is over. The Affordable Care Act is here to stay. -- President Barack Obama

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 08:54:26 AM PDT

    •  Agreed. (7+ / 0-)

      GOTV always makes the difference.

      I am Joe's Steven......

      by Joes Steven on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:13:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't necessarily agree with this: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        If we turn out, we win.
        Democrats won the majority of votes in 2012 in many states (almost 3 million more votes), but the Republicans won the majority of House seats from those states.  But you're right, Joes Steven, GOTV does make a difference.

        "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke

        by SueDe on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 10:22:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We have greater numbers registered nationally (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mikejay611, wdrath

          And statistically we are also more likely to have voters, especially young people, minorities and women sign up on our side if they aren't voting and decide to.

        •  OK, if we turn out (5+ / 0-)

          in full force, we win in more states, even against the gerrymanders. Then we get to undo some of them, and set ourselves up to do even better next time.

          Much of this Diary is about states where AAs vote below their numbers. It is much worse among Latinos. We know how to do this, so it comes down to execution. Bannock Street or Battleground Texas or Moral Mondays or whatever is going on in your state. Funding and organization helps too, with a much bigger bang for the buck than scattershot TV ads that most people miss or tune out.

          We can leave that kind of waste of campaign funding to the Right, which is phenomenally good at it.

          Kos pointed out recently that the polling of generic ballots currently gives us a fair shot at taking back the House, contrary to Republican bluster and Beltway common wisdom. A few percent more voting our way could make that a certainty, and give us a bit of a cushion against Blue Doggery.

          Dems lead generic congressional ballot, but Obamacare may decide

          I expect the numbers to get better after the primary season, when people will be polled about the actual Tea Party candidates in many districts. Nate Silver gives us a 40% chance of holding the Senate, based on generic polling. That, too, will shift, probably our way. Particularly when Teapublicans start making more and worse unforced errors.

          We are in sight of a major goal. Handwringing and naysaying are entirely inappropriate now. Not playing the game is the way to guarantee that you lose.

          Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

          by Mokurai on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 12:22:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  maybe we should change that to MLK the vote. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kj in missouri, TomP

      Hold the line.

    •  Let's hope. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kj in missouri, TomP, mikejay611

          One can only imagine the gridlock and nonsense we will see for the next 2 years if the GOP holds majorities in both houses of Congress. Gawd.

      The Republican motto: "There's been a lot of progress in this country over the last 75 years, and we've been against all of it."

      by Hillbilly Dem on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:18:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd be more afraid that the gridlock would (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sotiredofusernames, CaliSista

        disappear and suddenly a lot of GOP bills went through. Could/would Obama wield the Veto pen strongly enough?

        If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

        by CwV on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:26:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Me too (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CwV, orestes1963

          they would definitely insert a spanner in the works in Obamacare to make it as useless for all of us as is the medicaid expansion in red states.

          They are hyperfocused on the bureaucratic details that could render it useless: each of the 50 votes has been a focused attempt to cripple it by this or that means, not just a blanket vote to repeal, which people assume Obama would veto.

          Wrong. That is not how they will do it.

          Their actions so far indicate that they will do it by more tiny chippings away of this and that, just a little bit in each bill, that can truly eradicate our gains - without exciting the outrage of a 'repeal' vote.

          Thanks Democrats! My Obamacare is permanent coverage no one can take away - and saving $3,000 is nice too

          by sotiredofusernames on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 10:19:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not so fast. Senate is not lost yet. (11+ / 0-)

        Mark Pryor has a fighting chance. He is surprisingly doing well against that Teabagger fool Tom Cotton. I thought Pryor had no chance. But he is slightly ahead currently and there is a good chance he can eek out a win with the help of the Big Dog.

        Democrats don't need to lose their wits. They can surprise rethugs in the midterms. Let the rethugs be cocky and think they have this in the bag due to Obamacare.

        Donate, volunteer..Let's not forget 2010. Let's fight to Keep the Senate.

        4 New Polls Show Incumbent Dem Senator Leading GOPer In Arkansas

        Four straight polls of the Arkansas Senate race have found Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leading challenger Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR).

        Although some of the polls are from Democratic-leaning groups and each of the polls find him with a razor-thin lead, the fact that a rough handful of surveys found Pryor in the lead is notable given that Pryor is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in the 2014 election cycle.

        A pro-minimum wage hike organization released a new poll conducted by Opinion Research Associates showing Pryor with 48 percent support to Cotton with 38 percent of the vote. The pollster surveyed 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. It was conducted from April 1 to April 8.

        A Hickman Analytics poll on behalf of the Consumer Energy Alliance found Pryor leading Cotton 40 percent to 37 percent among 400 likely voters. That poll was conducted February 17 to February 20. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

        A Talk Business-Hendrix College poll found Pryor leading Cotton 45.5 percent to Cotton with 42.5 percent with 8 percent undecided. In October the poll found Pryor with a one point lead, 42 percent to 41 percent with 17 percent undecided. The most recent Hendrix poll was conducted among 1,068 likely Arkansas voters between April 3 and April 4. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

        Another poll by the Anzalone Liszt Grove pollster on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found a tight race with Pryor leading (albeit within the margin of error). That poll found Pryor leading Cotton 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided. The Grove poll surveyed 600 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted from March 27 to April 2.
    •  Glad Dems in DC get this, they can thank us later (0+ / 0-)

      I believe we've been telling them this all along. Great to see them taking our advice. At worst we will minimize Republican wins. At best we'll have some upsets and a couple of years to really make a case for 2016 with the erosion of Neocon policies. It will make it harder for the media to ignore us, as much as they try.

  •  Well Hal A. Lujia, I'm Sure Glad t See This Focus (11+ / 0-)

    We need all the minority gotv effort we can get because the Republicans figured this out too, and have come down hard on the disenfranchising of Blacks.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 08:56:57 AM PDT

    •  One of our best GOTV weapons (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ivorybill, scott5js

      is the War on Voting. People who aren't all that hot on voting by themselves get upset when somebody says they can't.

      The War on Women, LGBTs, immigrants, young people, old people, veterans, workers, the jobless…sorry, The War on Everybody Including Each Other also helps to increase our vote and suppress theirs. Tea Partiers refusing to support Chamber of Commerce RINO candidates and vice versa for wingnut wackos is one of the great unconsidered factors in the polling so far.

      Richard "Rape Babies are God's Will" Mourdock ran more than ten points behind Gov. Mike Pence in Indiana, which has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of 10% R. There are plenty more where that came from.

      Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

      by Mokurai on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 12:31:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  why we fight (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brian82, roberb7, TriangleNC

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013 (@eState4Column5).

    by annieli on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 08:58:07 AM PDT

  •  Polls (9+ / 0-)

    Here on Kos I saw a poll that stated that we lost
    whites 54 - 46 Romney
    all other races we cleared with a serious margin.

    Why in any sense would we keep trying to win over voters that don't  like us or even experience the same America as we do?

    If we go for the AA vote, Latinos, Asian all others we can win any election in this nation. They couldn't touch our voting power.

    "Ward, I think you were a little hard on The Beaver last night." -June Cleaver

    by rageagnstmach on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 08:58:59 AM PDT

    •  Kinda have to change policies to do that, no? (0+ / 0-)

      Here's where "Deportation Nation" is coming back to bite us.

      •  Deportation? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ivorybill, mikejay611

        Voting Latinos don't get deported, nor do AA, or Asians. I mean we work on getting the vote of " minority voters" and we win any election in this country. The children of immigrants like myself, and many others naturalized Americans who still are treated as second class citizens.

        "Ward, I think you were a little hard on The Beaver last night." -June Cleaver

        by rageagnstmach on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 10:59:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We lost whites 59-39 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rageagnstmach, puakev, MadEye

      Without the huge margins with the other races we would've lost in a landslide.

    •  We go for all voters. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mikejay611, METAL TREK, Tweedledee5

      Let's not play into the whole racial division thing.  We need to get our white voters out too - the young, the educated, those in public service, those who still believe in separation of church and state. There are white sub-populations that are reliably democratic, and those votes are valuable too. Anyway, I'm sick of making politics about "minorities" versus whites.  This is about Americans versus  ethnonationalists.

      I'm happy to see every possible increase in black, Latino, immigrant voting.  I'm a very pale voter, who is grateful to be in the party that includes everyone. Make it easy to vote, make it safe to vote, restore the voting rights of non-violent offenders, make it possible to register in every public office or at the polls right up through election day. We want high turnout of white democratic voters, because there's no damn way the GOP should be able to turn this into a contest between whites who feel racially vulnerable and everyone else.  

      “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

      by ivorybill on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 01:01:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So Blue Dogs are most vulnerable? (8+ / 0-)

    I thought senators like Landrieu, Pryor, et al vote like Republicans in order to get re-elected, at least that's the excuse they use.

    So now DSCC is telling us they're working to turn out black voters to save the Blue Dogs' seats?  The same Dem voters who the Blue Dogs work against when its not an election year?

    I guess we have to call BS on the Blue Dog excuse that they have to vote with Republicans in the Senate in order to get re-elected.  Turns out, Harry Truman was right about the difference between pretend Republicans and real ones.

    Wouldn't it make more sense to give these disenchanted Dem voters a reason to vote in the midterms?  Wouldn't it be better (and less expensive) to run Dem candidates in these races who actually represent the voters we want to show up at the polls?

    From an ethical standpoint, its just wrong to get these voters to the polls to support Dem candidates who work against their best interests when the election is over.

    Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

    by Betty Pinson on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:12:03 AM PDT

    •  ethics (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Betty Pinson, mikejay611, doroma

      isn't the top of anyone's list when it comes to describing 'politics'      sigh

      "From single strands of light we build our webs." ~kj

      by kj in missouri on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:23:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's interesting, though. Landrieu is now using (10+ / 0-)

      Obamacare in her advertising.  Leaning into it, even.  Perhaps she can read poll numbers, too.

      •  It won't change her voting behavior (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        She's reversed herself before on important public policy issues when running for re-election.  

        She usually switches right back to Blue Dog voting once the election is over.

        Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

        by Betty Pinson on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:31:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Runs away on Big Oil, holds him tight on ACA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Big Oil dominates Louisiana and she will never change her tune when it comes to them. Running on Obamacare as well as her truly impressive GOTV operation will be her keys to victory. Landrieu is one of the most politically astute people in all of government. She knows and understands her electorate like few Senators can claim. She is best retail politician the state has seen in decades. When you are trying to represent a state with a large regressive portion of the electorate its hard to be a progressive and win. However, except for Big Oil issues she is a reliable vote for progressive issues when the chips are down and every last vote needs to be counted.

        Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

        by bywaterbob on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 10:50:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If she's so politically astute (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          why does she need DSCC to spend millions to turn out voters she doesn't like and doesn't support to vote for her re-election.

          She's old news, old school Blue Dog who contributes nothing, yet costs Democrats and working class Americans their futures.  Time to dump the few Blue Dogs we have left in the Senate. They are worse than useless, they're a drain on the party, both financially and morally.

          Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

          by Betty Pinson on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 01:11:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  you mean time to lose the senate (0+ / 0-)

            and spend the next two years unable to get a single nominee to anything approved

            Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

            by bywaterbob on Wed Apr 16, 2014 at 12:50:30 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I agree with you but please keep the big picture (9+ / 0-)

      in mind.

      As much as I hate Pryor, Landrieu, Manchin and the likes, I care more about keeping the Senate under Democratic control.

      If Dems lose the Senate, President Obama's presidency will be pretty much over. No more federal judiciary appointments and Supreme Court appointment if a vacancy opens up.

      As bad as Pryor, Landrieu etc. have been, there were there on healthcare vote, all of president obama's appointments. We need that. Tom Cotton is certainly not going to vote for a President Obama nominee for anything.

      Let's fight to keep the Senate. President Obama can have major impact for decades to come with his judicial appointments alone.

    •  The DSCC exists for one sole purpose (3+ / 0-)

      To support and expand the DSCC.  They do that by adding D members to the Senate.  The politics and ideals of those members are inconsequential, almost irrelevant, to the DSCC.  This is part of a trend - political parties that exist to empower themselves, and for no other reason.

      The Washington establishment, up to and including the President, anointed a candidate for the Senate here in Georgia.  Getting in line, the state party made lots of noise about how they'd hate to have a primary, because it'd be terrible if people heard Democrats debating Democratic principles or something.  

      Having received the official imprimatur, that candidate will only be in one debate, right before the primary.  Her official platform appears to be "Optimism" and "Working Together."  As for actual brass tack policies, so far she rushed to support bombing Syria, before it became clear the entire country hated the idea - but at least she got to show she was "tough."   She also came out in favor of building the Keystone pipeline during a brief Q&A with supporters.  

      But it's cool, she's in favor of adding language slightly modifying one factor in a decades old statute addressing the gender pay gap, so she can say she's a good Democrat on our side fighting for equality.  And after all, the important thing is that the other side doesn't win, right?

      •  So what you're saying is… (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AlexDrew, TexasTom, Phoenix Woman

        …you'd rather have Broun, Handel, or Kingston represent you in the Senate because Nunn isn't sufficiently left-wing for your tastes? What? Huh?

        •  What I'm saying is... (0+ / 0-)

          I'd like to have a Democrat represent me in the Senate, and that being a Democrat should mean something more than "Not-a-Registered-Republican."  

          •  You have a choice in the primary… (5+ / 0-)

            …come home for the general. And if you don't like your representation then get someone to run in the 2020 primary.

          •  You're right. It "should." (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            la motocycliste, DemSign

            And health care should be single payer and the highest tax bracket should be 90% and the minimum wage should be $15.00 per hour at least.

            But they aren't, yet.

            In the short run, the only relevant question in these election is "Are you voting for Reid or a Republican for majority leader?"

            Unless you don't care whether, e.g., President Obama can have another Supreme Court pick.  (or any decent federal judges picked).

            Steve Gilliard Lives.

            by Bethesda 1971 on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 10:58:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There are two kinds of Democratic strategy needed (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Bethesda 1971, mikejay611

              Long-term strategy on the issues, and this-season strategy on elections. We need to do both, and we need to be clear which is which.

              Long-term strategy is about changing opinions, or at least about recruiting young voters as the old and intransigent die off in the normal manner. We can call that Better Democrats. Short-term strategy is about picking somebody who can win if we GOTV, and then getting down and doing the GOTV. That we should call More Democrats Actually Voting.

              We very rarely get to do both at the same time. Obamacare is one such issue, where the polling is edging our way, and should tip before election day in many Red states and districts. Not anywhere near all, of course, but enough to give us firm control of both chambers of Congress, if we step up.

              Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

              by Mokurai on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 12:44:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats who vote against (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Betty Pinson, orestes1963, MPociask

          an increase in the minimum wage (for example) simply are not Democrats, and don't deserve the label.  I, for one, would not lift a finger to help someone like David Pryor.  He epitomizes all the most amoral aspects of the Democratic Party.  His votes against party principles also confuse voters elsewhere, muddying the political waters and projecting the impression (correctly) that Democrats have no principles.  I felt exactly the same about Blanche Lincoln.

          More "Democrats" don't do us a damn bit of good.  If it comes down to it, I'd choose 2 years of Republican gridlock to remind the country how batshit they are — rather than 2 more years of ineffectual "Democrats" who actually make things worse for those Democrats who still believe in principles.

          Shirley Chisholm was right. Our Republic is in deep trouble.

          by Big River Bandido on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 11:23:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, but now we have choices! (0+ / 0-)

          This diary and the DSCC strategy reveal that supporting Blue Dogs is a lie an unnecessary drain on the party's resources and integrity.

          We do have choices.  Dem voters don't want the likes of the Blue Dogs and they're staying away from midterm elections in droves.   There more than enough of them to elect better Dems.

          To paraphrase Harry T, give voters a choice between a fake Republican and a real one and they'll vote for the real one every time.  We don't need Blue Dogs.   We can do better.

          Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

          by Betty Pinson on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 01:16:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  We NEED blue dogs in order hold the Senate (5+ / 0-)

      As much as you may hate them they are the reason we are in a majority today. Without people like Pryor, Landrieu, Begich, Hagan, Tester, Heidkampt, Donnelly, etc. we would be nowhere a majority in the Senate. The truth is the Senate is naturally favored towards the Republicans because they tend to win those small rural states like Wyoming, Idaho etc. and there a lot of them.

      •  No we don't, we need Democrats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Right now, we're stuck with the dregs at the bottom of the Blue Dog barrel.  These sh*tstain Blue Dog senators are begging Dems to vote for them because they won't get re-elected otherwise.  

        I won't lift a finger to help them.  If their constituents show them mercy, they should do so with a clear message - this is your last term, Blue Dog.  You will be replaced with a real Democrat next time.

        Money is property, not speech. Overturn Citizens United.

        by Betty Pinson on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 01:20:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not just African Americans (7+ / 0-)

    All minorities.

    I love president Obama!!!

    by freakofsociety on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:12:19 AM PDT

  •  But, but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ... I thought Ted Nugent said "these people" shouldn't be voting anyway.  He's qualified to speak on this subject, no?

  •  TV is a "persuasive medium"? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kj in missouri, Betty Pinson, cjfb

    I could really have fun with that one.  But I think we've entered into a new era where TV isn't as persuasive as it use to be because of horrendous oversaturation.

    The Oligarchs are now spending so much money, and so much is going to TV, and so much is designed to disguise who is sponsoring the ad, it's almost impossible to make heads or tales of anything.

    Far better to pay for person to person contact than an expensive TV ad.  Sure, stay in the TV game, but don't waste money trying to match the Kochs in a saturated market.

    •  So I found myself getting sucked into one of those (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      late nite ads for some sort of product that would make my life easier.

      Those are cheap to produce, clever, downright mesmerizing.  We need to find the hefty guy who sells that waterproof goo that repairs everything and have him make political ads.  

      And actually, this sort of targeted, "on-the-cheap," snuck in during non-prime time or certain shows really worked.  Brand X bought up prime time shows at top dollar, but most people zip through the ads on those on their TIVO.  If you're just watching something for fun, on a whim, or in the morning while you're getting ready for work,  you're less likely to do that!

      •  That works for products (0+ / 0-)

        that don't need a mass market, where the tiny ratio of people reached is higher than the even tinier cost ratio. It can work for reaching particular segments of the voting population, or encouraging targeted groups to register and vote.

        The Obama campaign was astoundingly good at this, especially in the highly receptive Spanish-language media, particularly when compared with how totally terrible the Romney campaign was in evaluating their bang for the buck.

        Those Obama campaign staffers are now mostly available to any Democrat as campaign consultants, except for the ones tied up in specific projects like Battleground Texas.

        Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

        by Mokurai on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 12:53:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Phonebanking. (3+ / 0-)

      Sign up with your local Democratic Party Headquarters.

      If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

      by CwV on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:29:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Working on it in my tiny corner of Ohio (16+ / 0-)

    1200 people in my precinct, roughly 30% African-American.

    The people I talk to of all races in my neighborhood are fired up because of the voting restrictions. It's gonna help if we can get the Voter Bill of Rights on the ballot.

    Turnout is going to be key!

  •  Two Words (8+ / 0-)

    Unleash Beyonce.  That is all.

    Like Lord Humungus' Mohawk Warrior in the "Mad Max" sequel "The Road Warrior," keep her chained until it's time.  Then cut the chain and put her bus on the road in Savannah to Atlanta to New Orleans, Shreveport, Little Rock, Louisville, Charlotte, and the Research Triangle.  I'd suggest starting Wednesday before Election Day.    

    The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. -- John Kenneth Galbraith

    by Kangaroo on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:15:48 AM PDT

    •  I like it! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Phoenix Woman

      I was a peripheral visionary. I could see the future, but only way off to the side. ~ Steven Wright

      by Bugsby on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:19:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Celebrity Endorsements Are Good (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        poco, 88kathy, Vicky, shanikka, orestes1963

        But these are very politically sophisticated constituencies. African-Americans (and other minorities) have to be. I think a better idea is to enlist existing community leaders in registration/voting drives.

        Somehow, I still think that the Senate candidates will do best where they make it very clear what they will do for voters if elected:

        "If I am elected, I will do XYZ for YOU."

        And then they need to be interested in following up on this.

        "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

        by bink on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:24:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  For Example (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Sending Cher, Madonna and Cyndi Lauper out to campaign in gay communities for a candidate would be perceived as being very condescending and would probably turn more people off than on to a particular candidate.

          "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

          by bink on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:26:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Or if Gooper XZW gets elected (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          he will do ZOMGBBQ to you. We are seeing a reasonable amount of that on their desire to take away all of the benefits of Obamacare and kill tens of thousands of their fellow citizens, with much more to come.

          Like Bill Clinton turning the Contract With America into the Contract On America.

          Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

          by Mokurai on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 12:58:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I'm Always Shocked (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ivorybill, Phoenix Woman

    At how small the black population in Southern states is, compared to the outsized racial fears of the overwhelmingly white majorities. Hearing the rhetoric, you would think Georgia is 97% black, with a few huddled and shivering whites on the margins.

    "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

    by bink on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:21:04 AM PDT

    •  The racists.... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bink, mconvente, ivorybill, Phoenix Woman

      Whose numbers are thankfully dwindling, are living in the echoes of a different age.  For example, after the Civil War, Georgia's population was roughly half African-American.  In its Reconstruction election to form a new constitution, 20% of the delegates were black.  

      It was a brief moment in time.  As soon as Reconstruction ended, a massive campaign by racist whites began to terrorize and disenfranchise the black population.  Faced with the choice of staying in their home where they could be lynched, or trying their chances somewhere else, a huge number left.  The loss of human capital is immeasurable.  

      Now, 3 out of 10 is still a significant portion - and with a large and growing Hispanic population, Georgia could very well soon be (again?) a majority non-white state.  

      •  As a post-script... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bink, Phoenix Woman

        I wanted to add that this "Fighting the racist battles of the past" is true for the city of Atlanta, as well.  The racist nuts think of Atlanta as a city composed of, and dominated by, African Americans.  Interestly, as White Flight has been reversing, Atlanta has gone from a 67% AA population in 1990 to a 54% in 2010.  Depending on how the inevitable gentrification of parts of Atlanta is handled, that trend could continue or even accelerate.  

    •  True... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bink, Phoenix Woman

      It reminds me of GOP efforts to restrict voting on the Souix'/Lakota reservations in the Dakotas.  Seriously? You want to ask them: "You've beaten these folks down to less than 5% of the population and taken all their land and now you are threatened when they vote?"

      “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

      by ivorybill on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 01:09:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  more specifcally... (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV, 88kathy, zizi, askyron, ivorybill, scott5js could be that who will control the Senate next year could well be in the hands of voters in just 10-15 cities.

    If we can be sure to get out the vote in the following cities, Democrats' chances for holding onto the Senate will increase dramatically:

    Charlotte & Raleigh in NC, Little Rock, AR, New Orleans & Baton Rouge in LA, Anchorage, AK, Louisville, KY, Detroit, MI, Charleston, WV, Atlanta, GA , Denver, CO.  

  •  Unlikely that there will be a voting surge... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Algernons Labyrinth

    with Obama not in the ballot.

    More likely the numbers will drop.

  •  agreed. If our black brothers and sisters (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    my fellow brothers and sisters in the gay community,and the rest of the Dems. get out to vote, we can surely change some of the GOP landscape, but key is GOTV!!!!

  •  Good diary-Dems should go after their own voters (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod, 88kathy, ivorybill

    and GOTV. Obama does not have to be on the ballot for AA to turn out. The GOP injustices alone will motivate people to the polls.

    "No man has a good enough memory to be a successful liar." Abraham Lincoln

    by appledown on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:28:24 AM PDT

    •  Well it helps if he plays an active role (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I hope Obama drops whatever reticence he has about appealing to black voters, and just gets out there and asks for people to get to the polls.  He is scared that he will seem to be a liability.  But there has to be a way for him to dog-whistle, because the GOP is expert at that going in the other direction.

      “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

      by ivorybill on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 01:13:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, GOTV! (6+ / 0-)

    Only game in town. GOTV.

    Only. game. in. town. this. season.


    Dawkins is to atheism as Rand is to personal responsibility. uid 52583 lol

    by terrypinder on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 09:32:34 AM PDT

  •  African-American voters… (7+ / 0-)

    …(and of course Hispanic voters) could be the key in Texas as well. Harris (Houston) County's AA performance is atrocious. Well, all of Texas' performance is atrocious.

    Let's hope that standing room only events for Wendy Davis, like this, turn into vastly increased voter turnout this fall.

  •  GOTV diary with Eclectablog (9+ / 0-)

    as our first guest coming next week.

    Just listened last night to the DFA free night school about how to set goals for voter turnout.  Well done.

    Tonight they are going to be covering Running an Effective Volunteer team.

    Think they will be running another series like this, please contact Monique at for questions or if you want to try to sign up for the rest of  this series which also includes precinct organizing and using voterfile.  training@democracyforamerica

    Boots on the ground/sh

  •  What more motivation could there be? (5+ / 0-)

    One party has made it clear that they are trying to take your fundamental rights away.  They have worked very hard to accomplish it, at the expense of other things, like making sure bridges don't collapse.  

    Democrats need to emphatically defend the alternative.

    GOTVers have to get out there and give rides, but voters also have to take them.

    If you're part of a group whose rights are being eroded, then change is yours, but only if you want it.  The bed you make is the one you will have to lie in.  Freedom was never given to anybody.

    I don't know what more can be said.

  •  Another Grass Roots Strategy (0+ / 0-)

    Dems should encourage Dems and independents to voter early on election day.  This would put Dems at the head of the line making GOPers stand for hours on end.  GOPers, because they are not a hearty bunch, will not do this and go home without voting.

  •  Sadly, many black people feel left behind (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shanikka, Phoenix Woman, RadicalCon

    Living in a black neighborhood, we talk on the street. Every night.

    The man we consider "the mayor of the street" says he mobilized and fought for Obama twice.

    But their lives have not improved much at all. They feel Wall Street got bailed out, but the hood got ignored.

    They ask where was Obama's jobs program?
    Where were all the investments in poor schools?
    Why was there no federal urban policy at all?

    (I realize the GOP blocked many good things, but many black folk I know feel burned. It may be difficult to get them to the polls again.)

    "What's the point?" they ask.

    Dems better do listening sessions in these communities before they start messaging. The anger is much deeper than we politicos might imagine.

    "Work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed." -- Vaclav Havel

    by greendem on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 04:02:26 PM PDT

  •  If republicans get the senate, the house will impe (0+ / 0-)

    If republicans get the senate, the house will impeach the Pres.  They are single-mindedly obsessed with hurting him.  They will do it.

    Would any republican in the senate be able to not vote to convict?

    The only real question is whether they would have the balls to impeach Biden first.  

    How's that for motivation?

  •  Off year elections are a bitch (0+ / 0-)

    I honestly don't know if this will work out.  I hate to sound politically incorrect but a lot of Black people voted for the first time because Obama was on the ticket.  They have interviews with people saying this.  I don't know how this is going to turn out without him campaigning side by side in black areas.

    "Hatred is never appeased by hatred in this world. By non-hatred alone is hatred appeased. This is a law eternal."

    by sujigu on Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 04:43:37 PM PDT

  •  Limos to the Polls (0+ / 0-)

    A suggestion: Rent every limo around every Democratic area. Advertise widely in Blue neighborhoods. Also advertise disabled assistance. On election day (or more if there is early voting) pick up people and take them to the polls.

  •  This is why the Obama's won twice (0+ / 0-)

       They know the where who and why of base turnout. None in the party have come close, save Al Gore with Donna Brazile running his campaign. in 2000. She won him the popular vote then he went DLC wobbly
    pulling the Jackson and Sharpton crowds out of Miami on the butterfly ballot protest. Plus he and Clinton lost their home states despite trying hard.

    In other words, stop chasing after those "undecided" or "independent" voters, and focus on getting our supporters to the polls. There are more of us than there are of them.
     Can our current front runner pull off a base turnout and avoid the sure loser of triangulation' and chasing independents - losing because something is said or done to turn off or suppress the base vote?
          Barrack Obama did it. One key reason, Michelle Robinson Obama is a quiet political power house. Beyond a doubt the best in the Democratic  party, today.  She has a real political machine and winning personal approach. Others need to take notes.
    Even her trip to China was far more successful than any First Lady in memory. And is still paying dividends.
        Plus President Obama then a Senator had real chops going into '07 '08 primary because he was a key player in winning back the Congress in the '06 mid terms. He didn't 'lay low'. He said 'Lets go.'
    •  Revisionist history (0+ / 0-)

      O didn't turn out the base.  He alienated it.  The base turned out because they hated the alternative.

      This isn't about the "base".  It's about a block of voters who don't give a rats as about anything.  They turned out for O because of narcisism.  They won't turn out for the senate race because they don't care.

      Independents and a lot of voters alienated in the last cycles will come back once the rabid O supporter base is gone due to lack of interest.

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