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Leading Off:

MI-Gov: This is what happens when outside groups, desperate for simple slogans to use in their attack ads, go off half-cocked:

In the spot above, the Republican Governors Association slams Democrat Mark Schauer, who is running for governor in Michigan, for allegedly supporting "a new fee on nursing home beds" when he served in the legislature. I mean, look at that crazy libruhl—taxing the elderly and infirm just so they can have a place to lay their heads at night! Can you imagine the kind of person who would support such a thing?

Here's one: Republican Gov. Rick Snyder—the very man Schauer is running against. Of course, the law is nothing like the RGA's caricature. Rather, according to a press release Snyder issued when he extended the program in 2011, "the state receives more in federal matching Medicaid funds than what is paid out by nursing homes." Those matching funds are then returned to the nursing homes, who wind up as net beneficiaries.

Indeed, the original legislation passed with broad bipartisan support, and it was signed into law by another Republican governor, John Engler. So a group devoted to electing Republican governors is attacking a program supported by Republican governors—and one that brings in more money for the state, no less. Makes perfect sense to me.

1Q Fundraising:

MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D): $1.3 million raised

MS-Sen: Thad Cochran (R-inc): $1.7 million raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand; Chris McDaniel (R): $475,000 raised

NC-Sen: Greg Brannon (R): $575,000 raised; Mark Harris (R): $398,000 raised, $400,000 cash-on-hand

NE-Sen: Sid Dinsdale (R): $210,000 raised, $98,000 cash-on-hand

NH-Sen: Bob Smith (R): $187,000 raised

AR-Gov (March): Mike Ross (D): $220,000 raised; $2 million cash-on-hand; Asa Hutchinson (R): $200,000 raised, $1.2 million cash-on-hand

MN-Gov:

Scott Honour (R): $186,000 raised (plus $50,000 loan), $64,000 cash-on-hand

Kurt Zellers (R): $71,000 raised (plus $20,000 loan), $80,000 cash-on-hand

Jeff Johnson (R): $32,000 raised, $142,000 cash-on-hand

Marty Seifert (R): $64,000 raised, $139,000 cash-on-hand

Dave Thompson (R): $67,000 raised, $38,000 cash-on-hand

DCCC (March): $10.3 million raised, $40 million cash-on-hand

Senate:

KS-Sen: I find it incredibly hard to believe that former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, who previously served as governor of Kansas, is actually considering a bid for Senate in her home state this year. I don't think this really needs much explication beyond "disastrous Obamacare rollout on her watch" and "deep red state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since the New Deal," but that's not just speculation. It's borne out by a recent PPP poll, which presciently tested Sebelius' numbers.

Indeed, her favorability rating is a miserable 38-55, and she drives up the GOP vote share compared to little-known Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor. The key point of comparison: Tea partying physician Milton Wolf, who is also mostly unknown, edges Taylor just 33-32. But against Sebelius, he shoots up to 46-39. Sen. Pat Roberts also moves up, from 48-32 versus Taylor to 52-38 against Sebelius. This movement is entirely attributable to the fact that Sebelius' name automatically motivates Republicans to side against her, and in a state like Kansas, there's no avoiding that.

Meanwhile, Wolf has launched his first TV ad of the race. A narrator starts off with a theme Wolf has long hit, saying, "After 47 years in Washington, Kansas is a distant memory for Pat Roberts." Wolf "wakes up every day and saves lives," he continues, and after he accomplishes his goals in D.C. (repeal Obamacare, pass term limits), he'll "come back and practice medicine—because nobody should spend 47 years in Washington."

MS-Sen: In a new ad, GOP Sen. Thad Cochran slams state Sen. Chris McDaniel for his dodgy voting record over the years. In 2003, the narrator says that McDaniel voted in the Democratic primary, even though Republicans were trying to unseat Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove that year. (They did, and it's not clear how McDaniel voted in the general.) He also allegedly didn't vote at all in 2004, or in the GOP presidential primary in 2008.

NC-Sen: American Crossroads' new ad features clips of both Barack Obama and Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan offering some version of "if you like it, you can keep it," then transitions into praising Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis as a "fiscal conservative with the guys to repeal and replace Obamacare."

Gubernatorial:

CO-Gov: Yeesh. Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez very nearly failed to qualify for this year's GOP gubernatorial primary, after the secretary of state's office invalidated over 10,000 of his petitions—almost half the amount he filed. Beauprez managed to scrape by with just enough signatures, but this is not the sign of a well-run campaign.

FL-Gov: Republican Gov. Rick Scott discusses his humble upbringing and mentions his stint in the Navy (complete with contemporary photo of him in uniform) in this new ad.

GA-Gov: GOP Gov. Nathan Deal is up with his first ad, backed by a reported $1 million buy. A narrator touts Deal's tax cuts and claims he created "175,000 new jobs." He also says that "for the first time in history, Georgia is the number one place to do business," though absolutely no citation is given for that claim, whatever it's supposed to mean.

ME-Gov: For the first time in over a year, a public poll finds GOP Gov. Paul LePage leading in his bid for re-election. Pan Atlantic SMS, which in fact was the last firm to put LePage on top, now has him at 39 in their latest survey, with Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud at 37 and independent Eliot Cutler at 20. Back in November, Michaud had a 37-36 edge, while Cutler was at 18, so we're only talking a small shift—and that prior result was actually one of the closest anyone's seen. So it seems fair to say that PanAtlantic's numbers have generally been a bit more favorable toward LePage than those of other pollsters, such as PPP, which gave Michaud a 44-37 lead earlier this month.

PA-Gov: GOP Gov. Tom Corbett's wife narrates a new minute-long ad, arguing that her husband has "increased spending in the education department by $1.5 billion over what it was when he came into office." Corbett, though, is notorious for the cuts he's made to education, and in fact it's been the number one issue that's tanked his poll ratings. So it'll be quite the trick if he can convince voters otherwise.

House:

CA-25: Former state Sen. Tony Strickland, who is seeking Rep. Buck McKeon's open seat, is airing his first ad of the race. Strickland says "Washington spending is out of control" and that he wants to repeal the ACA and pass a balanced budget amendment.

MI-07, FL-13: The NRCC has added two congressmen to its "Patriot Program," which is designed to help vulnerable incumbents. One is Rep. David Jolly, who of course just won a special last month in Florida's swingy 13th District and could have to deal with another serious race again this fall. The other is Rep. Tim Walberg, who faces a challenge from former state Rep. Pam Byrnes in Michigan's 7th. This brings the Patriot Program to 17 members; the rest of the list can be found here.

MI-08: Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing, who had been considering a bid for Congress, says he'll run for retiring Rep. Mike Rogers' open seat. That gives Democrats their first candidate with elective experience; Central Michigan University professor Susan Grettenberger and former state demographer Ken Darga are also seeking the party's nod. Two Republicans are running here as well: former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett.

MI-11: Attorney Dave Trott, who's already taken a good bit of heat on the airwaves in the GOP primary, is going up with a positive spot of his own. The first half is kind of weird and features a few random clips of news reports meant to suggest that Congress does nothing but sit around and talk. In the second half, Trott touts himself as an "outsider" who knows "how to create jobs." I'd suggest Trott hire a professional narrator for his next spot, as he does not have an appealing voice.

MT-AL: State Sen. Matt Rosendale, one of many Republicans seeking Rep. Steve Daines' open seat, is running a new ad featuring video footage of himself captured by a "government drone"—until he disables it with a shot from his rifle. Given that this is totally fake, all the people who complained about Mary Landrieu's Senate hearing re-enactment are going to be furious about this one, too. That's how it works, right? (P.S. Shooting drones, just like shooting at manned aircraft, is illegal.)

NY-01: Oh man. A new super PAC called the U.S. Jobs Council is riding to state Sen. Lee Zeldin's rescue with a truly lulzy new ad attacking attorney George Demos, Zeldin's GOP primary rival. The narrator claims that the ultra-conservative Demos is trying to use the "Pelosi campaign cash machine to buy a seat in Congress." The hook is incredibly slender: Apparently, Demos' father-in-law is a rich California developer who has donated to Democrats. Are any voters going to believe that Demos is a closet liberal? I guess we'll see.

NY-22: Boy, this is pathetic. Even though Mitt Romney carried New York's 22nd Congressional District by less than half a percentage point in 2012, Democrats have failed to field a single candidate here—not even a sausage. It's especially sad because the Republican incumbent, Rep. Richard Hanna, faces a primary challenge from the right from Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney. While a Tenney upset isn't likely (it wouldn't be a potential upset if it were), you always at least want to give yourself a chance to capitalize on a situation like this. Truly, a missed opportunity.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Motor City Kossacks and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NY-22: needs a clone of our Seneca Doane, AKA (6+ / 0-)

    Orange County District Attorney candidate Kossack Greg Diamond.

  •  CA-25: which is stupider & fatter target for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, Cadillac64

    the now-experienced and locally well-known candidate Dr. Lee Rogers in his second run for this seat?

    1. Emphasis on ACA repeal, against a doctor who knows this issue inside-out, or

    2. Balanced budget nonsense in district where retiring Republican Buck McKeon won re-election for years by spending on pork weaponry.

  •  CO-06: Personhood issue spills over from CO-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MartyM, a2nite, Cadillac64

    This local media retraction of story on Mike Coffman's personhood positions seems to fall into the category of

    'if you're explaining, you're losing'
    The story that was not retracted is about Andrew Romanoff hitting hard on this.
  •  RGA ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64

    That RGA ad is just turrible. Simply awful television.

  •  typo (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64
    transitions into praising Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis as a "fiscal conservative with the guys to repeal and replace Obamacare."
    I suspect you meant to type "the guts to repeal".
    •  Guys = votes in legislature? How I read it. (0+ / 0-)

      "Then why don't all girls belong to unions?" "Well, there's some that thinks it ain't fashionable; there's some that thinks it ain't no use; and there's some that never thinks at all."

      by Cadillac64 on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 08:18:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If the Michigan ad is a prevarication? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BannedAtSlate, Cadillac64

    I still have to wonder if it dings the Democrat just enough?

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 06:34:03 AM PDT

  •  AR-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64

    Both totals seem quite low.  Even in a smallish / cheapish state, you'd expect both candidates in a competitive race to raise in the high six figures.

  •  MI-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64

    Snyder can't run on his record, because nearly every move he's made pissed off someone. The Democrats, or the teabillies, or retirees, or the folks who have discovered this tax season that their child tax credits are reduced or gone, property tax credits gone, EITC reduced, and various other middle class deductions curtailed or eliminated.

    He was elected due to the R wave of 2010 as well as his pre-election refusal to reveal any policy specifics. And of course the D he ran against was basically unelectable in a statewide race. His chances of reelection are rather slim, IMHO. He's not looking good, and most people still don't even know who Schauer is at this point.

    "A lie is not the other side of a story; it's just a lie."

    by happy camper on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 07:05:17 AM PDT

    •  Certainly hope you're right (0+ / 0-)

      Rick Snyder is about as destructive as they come and, as you say, he's pissed off a lot of people.

      What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

      by TerryDarc on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 09:44:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Do Republicans lie about everything...? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64, TerryDarc

    ...or just the important stuff?

    “It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing
    he was never reasoned into” - Jonathan Swift

    by jjohnjj on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 07:27:23 AM PDT

    •  The short answer (0+ / 0-)

      Yes.

      What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

      by TerryDarc on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 09:45:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If it's up to the GOP the nursing homes would all (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64, DisNoir36

    ... be shut down and Grandma would be sleeping on the concrete anyway, so go fuck yourselves, fleabaggers.

  •  I don't see anything about the Ohio (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DisNoir36, wdrath

    gubernatorial race. Maybe you posted it yesterday. But I want to say something to all the Democratic doomsters here moaning and groaning and saying the Kasich is a "shoo-in" or "he's as good as reelected." (and yes, I do see this here).

    The new PPP numbers just showed this race continues to be completely tied — 44%-44%. The Quinnipiac numbers released a few weeks ago show Democrat Ed FitzGerald rapidly closing what they came up with as a gap earlier. This race isn't going to be a "shoo-in" for anybody and no one is clearly the winner at this point.

    What could lose it for is, doomsters, is YOUR ATTITUDE. Not only have YOU decided all is lost already, but your attitude is infectious and can discourage other Democrats, who tend to be a pessimistic lot.

    You know what could win it for us? If you shut up and get to work. We have voters to turn out.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 08:22:27 AM PDT

  •  Dem target list (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TerryDarc

    The GOP just gave the Dems a nice list of GOP targets.  Many were already known to be vulnerable.

    Mike Coffman CO-06
    Rodney Davis IL-13
    Jeff Denham CA-10
    Mike Fitzpatrick PA-08
    Chris Gibson NY-19
    Joe Heck NV-03
    David Joyce OH-14
    Steve Southerland FL-02
    David Valadao CA-21
    Jackie Walorski IN-02
    Tom Reed NY-23
    Michael Grimm NY-11
    Scott Rigell VA-02
    Dan Benishek MI-01
    Bill Johnson OH-06

    Johnson is an interesting addition in that he's in a R+8 seat.  You would think someone in that red a seat wouldn't need shoring up.  I'm guessing this list is just for incumbents and does not include candidates in open seats like CA-25, CA-31 and so on.  

    It is a shame about Dems not fielding a candidate vs Hanna in NY-22.  He's sort of an odd duck for the GOP though.  He told a crowd a while back to support Democrats if they were concerned with women rights.  He seems to be somewhat more on the 'not completely frothing at the mouth batshit crazy' wing of the party which consists mostly of himself, Peter King and a few others.  You would think that would be a nice district to ratfuck with, especially considering that NY has the fusion voting which helped Dems out with some Hoffman races a few years back.  A guy like Hanna would surely rankle the frothier nut bags on the right enough to endorse someone else under one of the various Third Party lines.    

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 08:22:51 AM PDT

  •  MI-Gov Snyder's ads have been laughably bad (0+ / 0-)

    Sometimes we get a gift, this year it's Snyder's ad team

    First we got the "Schauer's over", and I'm thinking, wow, that was stupid, I think WE went up two points.

    Then there was, "Schauer taxes bottled water", wow didn't think they could get anymore disconnected or stupid.

    Now there is this nursing home ad, where it's backfiring on Snyder himself.

    I only hope they dump millions more with these buffoons before they catch on.
    But it is illuminating that the RGA needed to dump money on this race.  
    We have a race, and the GOP knows it.

    •  I think the Mittster is looking for something (0+ / 0-)

      to do. Maybe campaigning for Snyder would kickstart his 2016 presidential bid.

      What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

      by TerryDarc on Thu Apr 17, 2014 at 09:48:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If LePage wins re-election this year, Maine needs (0+ / 0-)

    to seriously consider going to a LA style runoff system. It's awesome that the state is amenable to voting for Independent candidates, and we've seen some win elections. But... it's pathetic that a candidate can win statewide office with under 40% of the vote, and it turns independent candidates into spoilers.

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