Skip to main content

U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (C) is flanked by Senator John Thune (R-SD) (L) and Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) (R) as he addresses reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, February 4, 2014.  REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst    (UNITED STATES
The Republican dream of a Red Senate is in peril
New Senate numbers from a survey conducted for The New York Times by The Kaiser Foundation of registered voters in Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina from April 8-15, 2014 with a margin of error of ±4 percent ((pdf):
Mark Pryor 46
Tom Cotton 36

Mitch McConnell 44
Allison Lundergan Grimes 43

Louisiana (multiway primary)
Mary Landrieu 42
Bill Cassidy 18
Paul Hollis 5
Rob Mannes 4

North Carolina
Kay Hagan 42
Thom Tillis 40

These sorts of numbers underscore what kos wrote last week when he showed why it won't be as easy as Republicans think for them to win control of the Senate. In all likelihood, they need to win each of these four races to achieve their dream of a Red Senate, but these polls show them trailing in 3 of the 4 contests and with a Republican incumbent up by only one point in the fourth while falling well below the 50 percent threshold.

Another interesting finding from the poll is that the Democratic Party appears to be in better shape than one might expect it to be in the south:

The poll also found that Democratic governors fared better than Republican ones. Gov. Mike Beebe, Democrat of Arkansas, whom term limits prevent from running again, enjoys a 68 percent approval rating. The race this year is effectively tied, with the former Republican congressman Asa Hutchinson drawing 41 percent and the former Democratic congressman Mike Ross winning 40 percent. In Kentucky, 56 percent of voters favored the job performance of Gov. Steve Beshear, a Democrat who cannot run for re-election next year. In Louisiana, only 40 percent approved of the job that Gov. Bobby Jindal, a Republican, is doing, while in North Carolina, the view of the performance of Gov. Pat McCrory, who is not up for re-election until 2016, was split, with 43 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving.
Obviously these numbers come from just a single poll and if you're going to draw firm conclusions about the races you should take a broader look at the data. The good news there, however, is that Democrats are leading in 3 of the 4 states: Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina with an extremely close race in Louisiana, assuming Landrieu can't avoid a runoff.

8:57 AM PT: The New York Times is (predictably) facing criticism for the polls because they look good for Democrats. As usual, the main criticism is about whether they obtained a good sample. Their defense is here, but a key thing to remember is that it's not just the NYT polls showing close races: The multi-poll averages linked at the end of the post also show tight contests.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Apr 23, 2014 at 08:15 AM PDT.

Also republished by North Carolina BLUE, Louisiana Kossacks, My Old Kentucky Kos, and Daily Kos Elections.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site