To start out, here is a chart of all 27 seats. The state has a complete list of candidates here.
NY-01: Tim Bishop (D), The Hamptons, Brookhaven, Smithtown
Obama 50/49, Bishop 52/47
Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop won hard-fought victories in 2010 and 2012, and Republicans are hoping this will be the year his luck runs out. Bishop got some bad headlines over the last few years over his relationship with a wealthy donor. Two Republicans are running here: wealthy attorney George Demos and state Sen. Lee Zeldin.
Zeldin is the more establishment-flavored candidate, with one anonymous GOPer calling Demos "as welcome as head lice." (Though Demos has the support of former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani). Demos, who is making his third bid for the seat, has invested over $1 million of his own money into the race and has already begun attacking Zeldin from the right. Bishop has the luxury of watching his foes beat each other up before they can focus on him, but the incumbent will have a tough re-election ahead of him regardless of who wins.
NY-04: Open (D held), Hempstead, Baldwin, Freeport, Five Towns
Democratic Rep. Carolyn McCarthy's retirement sets off a potentially competitive race in this left-leaning Nassau County seat, but one candidate looks like the clear frontrunner. Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice looks like the best-known candidate and raised an eye popping $1,471,000 million in her first few months in the race. The other candidate in the Democratic primary, Nassau County Legislative Minority Leader Kevan Abrahams, entered the race later and brought in a far smaller $110,000. Rice is clearly the favorite of national Democrats, and looks like the one to beat for the nomination.
Republicans have a credible candidate in former County Legislator Bruce Blakeman, who is capable of self-funding. Still, they have an uphill climb in this district and Rice looks like a very strong candidate.
NY-11: Michael Grimm (R), Staten Island, Bay Ridge, Gravesend
Obama 52/47, Grimm 52/47
This is a hard race to parse. On one hand, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm has been under a cloud of suspicion for years over a possible campaign finance scandal involving some very sketchy people. Grimm did himself no favors in late January when he threatened a reporter on camera at the State of the Union. Grimm also faces a well-financed Democratic opponent in a district Obama carried.
Still, Grimm has a lot going for him. The scandal has been developing slowly and there's no guarantee it will get bigger before Election Day. The Democratic candidate, New York City Councilor Domenic Recchia, also hails from Brooklyn. Grimm is from Staten Island where most voters are from and will likely benefit from the geographical advantage. This race is worth watching, but Recchia may need Grimm to be more directly tied to the unfolding scandal to have a shot.
NY-13: Charlie Rangel (D), Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Washington Heights
Obama 95/5, Rangel 91/6
All the action is in the Democratic primary here, where longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel is facing strong headwinds as he seeks one more term. Rangel's financial dealings have cost him popularity at home and earned him a censure from the House in 2010. His health has also been poor in recent years.
Rangel narrowly prevailed in his 2012 primary against state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, winning 44 to 42. Espaillat is back for another run, and much of the Democratic establishment is abandoning Rangel for him. This is a contest where race will play a big role: Rangel is African American while Espaillat is Dominican. Another African American, minister Michael Walrond, is running and could cost Rangel votes he needs. Another Hispanic candidate is in, but he's little known and poorly funded. Rangel may still be able to pull off a win here, but it's looking like it will be a tough final race for the incumbent.
NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D), Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Middletown
Obama 51/47, Maloney 52/48
This swing district was the site of a close race in 2012, where Sean Patrick Maloney unseated first-term Republican Nan Hayworth by about four points. Hayworth is back for a rematch and can make this another tight race. However, Maloney has been leading in the cash race and Republicans are anonymously talking down Hayworth's chances. For now, Maloney looks like he's in the driver's seat here.
NY-19: Chris Gibson (R), Kingston, Hudson, Oneonta
Obama 52/46, Gibson 53/47
Sophomore Rep. Chris Gibson faces a very well-funded challenge from venture capitalist Sean Eldridge in this swing district. Thanks in large part to his own money, Eldridge has a $1,581,000 to $1,234,000 cash-on-hand lead over the incumbent and can probably spend more as needed. Still, Gibson starts out favored here. Gibson appears to have done little to offend his constituents and has done a good job portraying himself as a moderate. Eldridge also is battling the perception that he's a carpetbagger from New York City. For now, it looks like Gibson has the clear edge here.
NY-21: Open (D held), Plattsburgh, Watertown, Glens Falls
Democratic Rep. Bill Owens was facing a tough race in this swing seat, and his retirement further ensures that this North Country district will see another competitive contest. The Democratic nominee is likely to be Aaron Woolf, a documentary filmmaker. Woolf has very flimsy ties to the area (he owns a grocery store in Brooklyn for instance) and has been seldom seen on the campaign trail. However, Woolf passed a major viability test in mid-April when he brought in $206,000 in donations and loaned his campaign another $200,000. Woolf's fundraising quarter, while not eye popping, demonstrates he may have what it takes to run a real race here. Woolf's only primary opponent is Stephen Burke, a former county party chair who is also a perennial candidate.
Two Republicans are running: attorney Matt Doheny, and former Bush Administration aide Elise Stefanik. Doheny narrowly lost to Owens in 2010 and 2012 and many Republicans have had enough of him. However, Doheny so far looks like a much better fundraiser than Stefanik. The Independence Party's decision to nominate Doheny introduces a potential complication: If Stefanik wins the GOP nomination, Doheny would still be on the general election ballot. With none of the three candidates looking particularly strong, anything can happen here.
NY-22: Richard Hanna (R), Utica, Binghamton
Obama 49/49, Hanna 61/39
Sophomore Rep. Richard Hanna is one of the few genuinely moderate members of the House Republican caucus, with him even encouraging women to donate to Democrats. Hanna's apostasies have encouraged state Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney to challenge him in a primary. Tenney entered the race late and may not have adequate time to prepare to face the deep-pocketed incumbent, but this wouldn't be the first time a moderate Republican has lost to a conservative rival.
Unfortunately not a single Democrat is running, so Team Blue can't take advantage of a Tenney win. Interestingly though, Hanna already has the Independence Party nomination so he will be in the general election regardless of what happens in June. If Hanna loses the primary, he could conceivably become the de facto Democratic candidate in November.
NY-23: Tom Reed (R), Jamestown, Ithaca, Elmira, Geneva
Obama 48/50, Reed 52/48
Rep. Tom Reed had an unexpectedly close call in 2012 against an underfunded Democratic opponent. This time he faces a more formidable challenger from Tompkins County Legislator Martha Robertson, who is raising cash at a good pace. Reed got some bad headlines in November when it was revealed his law office had a long history of late tax payments. This is still a red district, but Robertson gives Democrats the chance to pull off an upset.