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Mary Landrieu speaking at podium
On health insurance, Sen. Mary Landrieu is in sync with her state.
Poll results chart, showing less than a third of respondents in AR, LA, KY, and NC want government uninvolved in providing health insurance to middle-income people.
The New York Times, analyzing its own poll:
Health Law’s Middle-Ground Approach Leaves It Unloved
That's one way to look at it. But take a closer look at the results in the chart to the right. There are three options: 1) government should stay out of health insurance, 2) government should subsidize insurance, and 3) government should provide that insurance (single payer or public option).

Option 1 is the Republican position. Option 3 is the liberal one. Option 2 is Obamacare.

So sure, we see support split roughly three ways between the three options, hence, a "divided nation."

But I'm more fixated on Option 1, the Republican position, full repeal. Because even in solidly red Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana, and purple North Carolina, the Republican position is held by only about a third of the electorate.

So you have Republicans running around all four states screaming about Obamacare repeal, yet two-thirds of the voters favor government involvement in health care, or the Democratic position. THAT'S the corner they've painted themselves into. THAT'S what's going to ultimately kill them this year. And all of that despite the $100+ million the Kochs have spent over the past several years undermining the law.

I've consistently argued that the Affordable Care Act will be a net positive for Democrats this year, and certainly Republicans are already flailing around looking for a Plan B. But numbers like this point to even bigger problems for Republicans than I ever dreamed. It's not just that they're trying to take away insurance from hundreds of thousands of their constituents. It's they're utterly and completely out of sync with the voters.

And if these Southern conservative states feel this way, what hope do Republicans have?

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Comment Preferences

  •  And well it should be. (17+ / 0-)

    Think what you will about ACA, and I criticize it constantly, it has done one very big and important thing:

    It has moved us away from the old status quo of turning people into little more than coin purses for insurance companies, pharmaceuticals, hospitals, doctors, and more.

    OK -- we're still coin purses, but we're coin purses in a new paradigm. We made a major change and the sky didn't fall.

    Now, maybe, we can address the cost and quality of care actually delivered -- maybe even get to a point where Medicare and Medicaid become redundant relics of the past because everybody is able to get care the same way.

    Not tomorrow or the next day, but the door is open now.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:36:34 AM PDT

  •  And in October? (6+ / 0-)

    It will be interesting to see this same chart farther down the road.  As we get nearer to the general election, won't those option 1 results be even weaker (despite Koch $$) ??

    "There is no way to give to honest toil its just reward--its full share of all wealth produced--but by the full application of the single tax. And righteousness and justice require it to be done." --A. Moll, 1897

    by Zwenkau on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:37:36 AM PDT

    •  Actually (10+ / 0-)

      I would bet it stays exactly the same, because that's the dead-ender teabagger set (about a third of the population).

      I think we'll see greater support of the law as liberals decide it's a definite improvement and we see a rally-around-the-flag effect with the elections coming up. But the opponents decided a long time ago that the ACA is worse than Hitler, and once you make that determination, it's impossible to let it go.

      •  Well, yeah, you've got a point... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        since I never thought I'd see the day when there would be serious attacks on the New Deal and Great Society safety nets.  And I've been watching politics since the late '50s.  But I grew up in a Goldwater in '64 family from Tom Curtis's suburban St. Louis congressional district, & "made the turn" in '71 (as a result of the Pentagon Papers) in time to support McGovern.  Even Hillary was a "Goldwater Girl," and I think a lot of folks here came from a more conservative family "past," so I guess that all colors my thinking -- and expectations -- to a degree.

        "There is no way to give to honest toil its just reward--its full share of all wealth produced--but by the full application of the single tax. And righteousness and justice require it to be done." --A. Moll, 1897

        by Zwenkau on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 10:14:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Dead enders are likely an even smaller (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Janet 707

        segment of the population. After all, the Shrub's support bottomed out around 25%.

        The power of the Occupy movement is that it ....realizes a fundamental truth about American politics… there is no way to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs.

        by orson on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 02:53:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  what hope do the Republicans have? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jck, VirginiaBlue

    They have their usual platform of alies: racism, religious fanatacism, xenophobia, homophobia, and ignorance.   Until we find a way to attack these issues successfully in red states,  Republicans will continue to win.

    •  Nah (9+ / 0-)

      They'll continue to win until we can successfully turn out our base. Even in Red states, there are more of us than them.

      If Texas Latinos voted at the same rate as California Latinos, Romney only would've won the state by 2-3 points. That's not even considering law African American registration and turnout rates, young voters, single women, etc.

      Some states are out of reach for the time being, but even in places like Alabama, young voters are trending Blue.

      So fuck the racists, religious fanatics, homophobes and xenophobes. They ain't changing. The way to push them out of the way quicker is to figure out how to get our low-voting base to the polls.

      •  Red Meat (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jfromga, VirginiaBlue

        Blatant voter suppression, blocking healthcare, suppressing minimum wage hikes, supporting racists like dead-beat Bundy, these are a few of the Repug back-fire, motivational things. But, of course, we need the "low-voting base" to be made fully aware of these and the many other issues that they can make the difference to change.

        "One of the more serious temptations which stifles boldness and zeal is a defeatism which turns us into querulous and disillusioned pessimists, sourpusses." ― Pope Francis

        by GoodGod on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 08:20:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree on strategy, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        but I'm not too sure about some of those younger voters.  My wife's county of her youth is in northern Missouri, in a "Green Hills" area that's been so conservative for years that when a Democratic governor set up regional planning areas he intentionally isolated these Republican counties.  When my wife has returned on occasion she's been surprised at how the younger set can hang on to their political prejudices while taking full advantage of society's benefit packages.  Case in point:  At a baby shower, the mother-to-be was asked when she was getting married.  The reply was that it would be silly to get married and lose her Section 8 housing, ADC money and utilities breaks that would go away if she were to get married.  She also got (or would be getting) WIC nutrition benefits and a college scholarship as class valedictorian anyway -- but this girl was definitely getting a lot of help.  Despite all this, and the fact that there didn't use to be a single person of color in the county, this is a local society that hates minorities as "takers" and clings to the GOP.  The "trending blue" thing tends to happen only if they move away….

        "There is no way to give to honest toil its just reward--its full share of all wealth produced--but by the full application of the single tax. And righteousness and justice require it to be done." --A. Moll, 1897

        by Zwenkau on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 10:36:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also true (0+ / 0-)

          that too many young people learn too much from their parents.  It is disappointing to me to see how many young people, teenagers, or in their twenties still fly rebel flags, have skinhead haircuts, fly Don't Tread on Me flags, etc.

          Eventually the numbers will get better, but change is still slow in the deep red areas.

      •  one needs the kind of enthusiasm (0+ / 0-)

        of 2008 in every election.  And it doesn't help that after the national level (and not even then many times), there is no strong state and local ticket to bring people out.

        So the long arc is towards more blue voters, the next couple of election cycles only look better in Georgia because the tea party controls the primaries and their favored candidates scare businesses and old line Republicans.

  •  BUT, it's perfectly in sync with the 20% (6+ / 0-)

    Of the extreme RW nutjobs of the base, who drive the primary elections - and therefore, run the entire Party. And by extension, now run the country.

    Rand Rick Ted Huck Scott / Republican power ON! / Five watt light bulb glows - haiku by Bill IPM

    by Fordmandalay on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:40:19 AM PDT

    •  They only run the country because of 2010 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FloridaSNMOM, JBL55

      and the gerrymandering that followed - and only in the parts of the country where they have maintained that control.

      We've got to be sure the area they control shrinks on Election Day 2014.

      Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

      by bear83 on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:58:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The more we talk (4+ / 0-)

    about it, the more their baby Jesus will cry, and the more people will get used to having insurance.   And then they will start looking for better insurance and cheaper insurance,  and then the insurance companies will really cry.

  •  Fringe (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Core Republican beliefs and values are quite out of line with mainstream America, and even most mainstream Red states, and getting farther and farther out of (can I say it?) whack.  But, living in their groupthink bubble of false consensus DC, and responsive to their moneyed overlords, they continue their reckless and anti-American course.  

    I think "Cry the Beloved Country."

  •  You're right. The Dem position is more the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, ActivistGuy, FloridaSNMOM

    combination, and thus the addition, of the latter options, which make it a roughly 55-33 split.

    To interpret it any other way, is a modern day journalist!

    Please know I am not rude. I cannot rec anything from this browser. When I rec or post diaries I am a guest at some exotic locale's computer. Ayn is the bane!

    by Floyd Blue on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:43:47 AM PDT

    •  Fox News says (0+ / 0-)

      According to the chart above, 70% of Americans oppose Obamacare...

      Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

      by bear83 on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 08:00:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The "Fox Effect" 33% (0+ / 0-)

      Josh Marshall's Talking Points Memo has a great series on the "Fox Effect"... the brainwashed 1/3 of America. In general, these are the people who are against the ACA. They will never vote Democratic, at least not until they are deprogramed. The other 2/3 will potentially be receptive to any Democratic efforts to positively promote the ACA.  Why in the world any Dems are making excuses for ObamaCare, rather than embracing it, is just plain stupidity. The numbers heavily favor the Dems on this very important issue.

      "One of the more serious temptations which stifles boldness and zeal is a defeatism which turns us into querulous and disillusioned pessimists, sourpusses." ― Pope Francis

      by GoodGod on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 08:11:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan" (5+ / 0-)

    Your early position on Obamacare as a net positive politically (a position shared by a number of us here) will soon become the revisionist historical position for a number of fence-sitters and even naysayers, the question is how long will that re-writing of personal political histories take?  

    Sometimes it felt like shouting against the wailing wind to believe extending options for more health care coverage (however imperfect) to the uninsured and underinsured was not just a moral good but a political benefit.  Those winds are finally beginning to shift.  

    And suddenly Obama has a host of new (fair-weather) political compatriots, as Obamacare goes from theoretical boogieman to something real and tangible.   Perfect can be, sometimes, the enemy of good.

    You can say it, kos, and say it loud: "I told you so."  It's well-deserved.  

    "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

    by Uncle Moji on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:44:14 AM PDT

  •  I think you are correct, because the impact of the (4+ / 0-)

    ACA, good and bad, has not been felt by the majority of Americans, yet.

    The President has done a good job on the timing of the rollout, so that most of the impact will start to be felt after the midterm elections.

    I've consistently argued that the Affordable Care Act will be a net positive for Democrats this year,

    If you get confused, listen to the music play - R. Hunter

    by SpamNunn on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:47:30 AM PDT

    •  Longer term? (0+ / 0-)

      Sounds like you think Americans will be negative toward  Obamacare?  I don't think that will be the case, they may want more and better, though.  I'd like my state to get its head out of its ass in terms of dealing with us disabled people and what happens to us under ACA, but that's not the federal Dems fault.  (Note to my centrist critics, see right there I said nice thing about DC Dems.  Don't get too used to it!)

      Pay no attention to the upward redistribution of wealth!

      by ActivistGuy on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 08:08:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know how Americans will feel about it, as (0+ / 0-)

        we don't really have a good handle on how what sounds good in theory will work in practice.   Me?   I am pretty sure that I won't like it because of the effect it will have on my ability to provide the excellent coverage to my employees that I currently provide without paying a surcharge.  I already have a good idea about how that will work, in the real world.

        I would have preferred that the ACA was a lot simpler and  limited in scope.

        If you get confused, listen to the music play - R. Hunter

        by SpamNunn on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 09:45:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Just for grins (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    patbahn, Hohenzollern

    If the Repugs wanted to trump (excuse that word) the ACA they could start pushing for single payer.

    Of course, that would be a cold day in Antarctica.

    Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. Frank Zappa

    by Da Rock on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:52:13 AM PDT

  •  We should repeal flood insurance in Louisiana (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The government insure people property in Louisiana  for pennys on the dollar ,through   the FEMA ,because private company do not underwrite   flood insurance in America ,only through the government

  •  Not just GOP problems, Koch problems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The Kochs are spending all of this money to set themselves up as the fall guys on Healthcare (and climate change, and income inequality, and more). That's a brilliant strategy that they have.

    "One of the more serious temptations which stifles boldness and zeal is a defeatism which turns us into querulous and disillusioned pessimists, sourpusses." ― Pope Francis

    by GoodGod on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:57:58 AM PDT

  •  The Democrats need to get the ACA enrolees to (3+ / 0-)

    the polls. There's enough of them to swing elections in every state, including the red ones.

  •  BENGHAZEEE KOS!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ya commie.

  •  somebody argued OCare was the 1955 civil rights (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


    weak tea but establishing federal presence.

    it will though allow a better bill to come along.

  •  KS & GA pass laws that Legislative approval needed (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    They aren't going down without a fight.

    Both Kansas and Georgia governors have signed a new law to ensure that if by some fluke a new governor would want to do the right thing for the state's citizens, the legislature will be there to prevent.

    From TPM

    Georgia and Kansas have left a combined 487,000 residents uncovered under Obamacare because they refused to expand Medicaid. And, though the law remains unpopular, a recent poll found that majorities of Georgians (54 percent) and Kansans (55 percent) support Medicaid expansion.
    Watch for this to spread so Republicans can ensure their citizens who are too rich for Medicaid but too poor to qualify for ACA subsidies remain uninsured.
  •  And I thought the Republicans were opposed (0+ / 0-)

    to PlanB.

  •  Southern ,, states feel this way, what options? (0+ / 0-)

    Southern conservative states feel this way, what hope do Republicans have?

    that democrats will mess up the messaging, let the frank lutz clones slice and dice the framing and we'll have 'gubmint getting inta my medicare again...'

    good health insurance is better than no health insurance and we can make it better.......rinse, repeat!

    if your grandma gets to live w dignity, thank a democrat and you, god willing, may live to be as old as your grandma...

    republicans are playing the short game AND the long game (gerrymandering, voter suppression and of course the supreme court),  less lieberman-more bernie sanders, warren, grayson is a start.

    •  thank a democrat.. (0+ / 0-)

      if the republicans had their way your social security would be privatized, the money managers would be making commissions off of that action and you'd be broke...

      if you never ever learned to share you have a choice; repeat kindergarten or join the republican party...

  •  I Keep Seeing (0+ / 0-)

    A lot of pundits, liberal or otherwise, continue to stoke the "Well, good ACA news does not necessarily mean, of course, maybe, sorta, that the Dems are definitely not not going to lose the Senate this year..."

    Yeah, there's that much vacillating.

    But if the GOP is going to run on a platform that is poll-tested such that literally 2/3rds of people polled do not support that platform, I kind of don't see how they don't end up losing.

    No, I am not suggesting, 6 months out from Election Day, that it's already some sort of fait accompli that Democrats will definitely prevail. That kind of complacency would be bad.

    But with Republicans flailing around between hitting the ACA from the right and the left, and deciding to dredge up Harry Reid as bogeyman...

    Well, that doesn't sound like a winning campaign to me.

  •  November (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    To get health insurance for 2015 under the ACA, sign ups will commence on November 15, 2014.  So, if the Obama administration and health insurance companies offering plans within the exchanges follow form, they will begin to "sell, push, advertise, and cajole potential new customers in the final months of the year.  This means right at the most critical point in the mid-term elections, this Administration will be in another all out push to get more and more people to sign up for insurance.  
      This reality guarantees Democrats will not be able to run from or vacillate on the ACA and MUST run with it and for it!  The mixed messages of lukewarm support while POTUS is out hawking the ACA will destroy the candidacy of tepid Democrats.  Might as well saddle up and do what the vast majority of Americans, including Republicans, have come to realize, insuring the 32+ million uninsured Americans makes sense for us all, it is pro-free market (what ever that means in 2014) and it is the only right thing we, as a society, can do to protect us all from spiraling healthcare costs.
      While I am blathering, I would like to ask why economists tell us we will have around 7 different jobs in our careers, and why health insurance PORTABILITY is not a HUGE good deal within the ACA?  Ah, but I digress.

  •  wash, Reince, repeal /nt (0+ / 0-)

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013 (@eState4Column5).

    by annieli on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 09:18:48 AM PDT

  •  Dear Kos, (0+ / 0-)

    Thanks for calling our state "purple." No, seriously. Thanks. Because sometimes around here we feel like we've been confused with Mississippi.
    —North Carolina progressives.

  •  You know Kos... (0+ / 0-)

    ...the hope that Repubs have is that we are of course "center-right" nation and as a result, Democrats "know" that they need to run even further to the right if they are to "compete" politically.  This is what Dems have been doing for 30 years and look at how "great" it is working for them now.  Hell, we've had the winningest democratic [sic] strategy for all this time and some of the Democratic politicians that We the People bought and paid for with the Constitution, sell us out year after year.

    And you've said it: Democrats need to start running on what the voters want (see the chart you post) and stop running on what they think corporate masters and Wealth & Power want - Democrats need to focus on "selling" to people exactly the thing that the people want.

  •  The problem I see (0+ / 0-)

    is that even though only 1/3 of the people will tell you they favor the GOP position, in my area, many more than that will vote for the GOP (lack of) plan. How do we get people to vote their own opinion and best interests and not that of the GOP thought police? I see so many people who have such a reflexive Fox-driven hatred of all things Obama that logic plays no part in their actions.

  •  Only in AK is Single Payer Least Approved (0+ / 0-)

    than either Obamacare or no government involvement.

    In all other Red States, the populous prefers single payer to no government involvement.

    Guess that makes them Liberal!  Blue.  Not red at all.

    Readers & Book Lovers Pull up a chair! You're never too old to be a Meta Groupie

    by Limelite on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 12:23:49 PM PDT

  •  "..what hope do Republicans have?" Suppress the (0+ / 0-)

    vote and run on the usual "winner":  God, Guns, and Gays.

    It gets them to the polls every time to vote the Tea Bag/Republican grifters into office.

    You really can't fix stupid.

    “My soul is from elsewhere, I'm sure of that, and I intend to end up there." - Rumi

    by LamontCranston on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 01:38:27 PM PDT

  •  these #s (0+ / 0-)

    are kind of amazing in many ways... for one they show what a minority view the Republican idea of no gov't in health care is ... but it also shows how difficult this issue is.. because in all of these polls ObamaCare is the least favorite option (people would prefer either total gov't or no gov't) .. ObamaCare is of course the in between - I think that's the problem with it politically ... it still pisses off that 30% who hates gov't ... but it doesn't really excite the people who want single payer ... and the in between people tend to be the types who aren't that politically active.  I guess this is all kind of obvious - but it just reemphasizes for me how difficult this whole thing is and how much credit Obama deserves for making it happen. (he doesn't get nearly enough.. it annoys me greatly to see his approvals still below 50%..)

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