Certain Ukrainian units are refusing to move against Russian special forces, "self-defense" squads, and separatist and federalization protestors.
At a Ukrainian military base near Kramatorsk, about a 20-minute drive from Slovyansk, there was no sign on Wednesday that the government troops there were taking any action. The road leading to the main gate of the base was blocked by several rows of barricades constructed from tires, barbed wire and felled trees, with a small checkpoint flying a separatist flag.
At the gate, a Ukrainian soldier who identified himself only as Maksim said that there were no plans to move against the anti-Kiev protesters and armed militants at the checkpoint, or at the government buildings that they have seized in about a dozen cities in the region.
“They are peaceful people,” he said.
This is happening despite orders from the Ukrainian government to resume the crackdown on the separatist movement. The US, presumably, was in a position to know in general the state of Ukraine's military. The US had no business whatsoever encouraging Ukrainian protestors in any way, shape, or form especially given the shabby state of Ukraine's military. This blunder is similar to when we encouraged Hungary to revolt against Russia in 1956 in the mistaken belief that we would help them. Russia's reaction to seize Crimea was a predictable one given that they had a red line against Georgia or Ukraine joining NATO.
In the meantime, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov threatened invasion if Russian interests or citizens were attacked.
“If we are attacked, we would certainly respond,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Russia Today, a Kremlin-funded satellite channel. “Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation.”
Lavrov made explicit reference to Russia’s 2008 intervention in Georgia – which led to the breakaway of two republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia – and said Russian intervention in Ukraine would be fulfilling international law, not breaking it.
Since nobody in Ukraine is seriously thinking about bombing or invading Russia, that means that there are Russian special forces in Ukraine and that if Ukraine attacks them, that could be pretext for war.
Another allegation made by Lavrov, who is the most frequent voice on RT these days, was that the Ukraine government was a puppet of the US. He pointed to the fact that both Ukraine's announced crackdowns came after visits from high-ranking US officials, the latest by Vice President Biden. While the US facilitated the coup in Ukraine, it was led by a broad-based coalition against the corrupt Yanukovych, who backed out of a deal to join the EU. The protests grew much bigger after Yanukovych fired on his own people.
The BBC had a skeptical report on the evidence presented by the Ukrainian government and printed by the New York Times regarding the photos of alleged Russian soldiers in East Ukraine. The Duck Dynasty character whose picture has been circulating extensively on Twitter who was allegedly in Georgia in 2008 and in East Ukraine in 2014 has a reddish beard in one photo and a black beard in the other. The BBC notes that the insignias in question in the pictures can easily be purchased online.
Apart from the photo said to have been taken in Georgia, all of the images seem to be recent and there is nothing to suggest any of them were taken outside Ukraine.
But the BBC piece admits:
But it cannot be said for sure that they are actual Russian special forces, as the Ukrainians argue. At the same time, the idea that they might be a local militia from Donetsk is belied by their apparent military professionalism.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week there were "no Russian units, special services or instructors in the east of Ukraine" but such denials of military involvement ring hollow for many after Russia's covert actions in Crimea, especially after he subsequently admitted troops had operated there.
And Lavrov's threat against Ukraine itself is strong evidence given that Ukraine has not, nor ever would, attack Russian territory. The fact that the separatists there are kidnapping and harassing journalists does not pass the smell test. If they didn't have anything to hide, then they would let the journalists do their job in covering the situation.
The US could end this conflict tomorrow if they wanted to. Assuming that allegations that Russian special forces are operating in East Ukraine are accurate, it is obvious that Putin is seeking to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. The US should guarantee that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO under any circumstances whatsoever in return for Russian withdrawal from East Ukraine. Let Ukraine and Belarus serve as buffer nations against aggression by either party. Should the US make such a declaration and Ukraine crack down on its right-wing extremists, then Russia would have no more pretext for remaining in East Ukraine.