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Leading Off:

NY-11: Republican Rep. Mike Grimm surrendered to the FBI on Monday—a bit ironic, since he was once a bureau agent himself—and the charges against him were unsealed. Even though Grimm had long been suspected of campaign finance violations, it turns out that the U.S. Attorney has accused Grimm of underreporting wages at a restaurant he ran in Manhattan before he was elected to Congress. You can read the complete, 20-count indictment here, which also includes charges that Grimm lied to investigators to conceal his alleged misdeeds. Those perjury and obstruction allegations can often be what really sinks a suspect.

Of course, none of this means that the campaign finance inquiry is over. Quite the contrary: It may well be that prosecutors figure they have Grimm dead to rights on the restaurant business and are hoping to package everything up into one tidy plea deal. Grimm, though, is showing no signs of caving, saying he won't resign and will seek re-election—but that's what you'd expect him to say. He can always roll over later.


AK-Sen: We don't usually mention radio ads in the Digest (there are just too many of them), but here's an unusual spot from Democratic Sen. Mark Begich that explicitly calls out his GOP opponents for opposing "a woman's right to choose," as well as "equal pay for women."

AR-Sen: In his latest ad, Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor explains that he's written legislation to make it harder to raise eligibility age for Medicare, and accuses his GOP opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton, of wanting to hike it to 70.

CO-Sen: In a new ad, the League of Conservation Voters accuses the "out-of-state oil billionaire Koch brothers" of running a "smear campaign" because GOP Rep. Cory Gardner "voted to keep giving billions in special taxpayer-funded subsidies to oil companies."

GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn features her father, ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, in her newest ad and says she tried to follow in her dad's footsteps—playing basketball, not in politics. (Pops once led his high school team to a state championship.) Nunn goes on to talk about her charitable work running "President Bush's Points of Light Foundation."

Former Secretary of State Karen Handel also has a new TV spot, taking aim at her GOP primary opponents as "career congressmen" or, in the case of David Perdue, an "out-of-touch millionaire elitist." Handel then mentions she "left a troubled home at 17" but "beat the odds" and eventually went on to implement "Georgia's tough voter I.D. law."

LA-Sen: Patriot Majority, one of the big pro-Democratic super PACs, is running a new ad hammering GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy for supporting cuts to school funding and Pell grants, with a quick mention of the Kochs thrown in at the end. Sen. Mary Landrieu also has a new positive spot, featuring a local businessman Boysie Bollinger, who explains: "I don't usually make TV ads—I make boats! Big ones!" Bollinger goes on to say that he's a Republican but supports Landrieu because of what she's done (and can do) for the state, including the fact that she's now chair of the Energy Committee, "the most powerful position a person can have for Louisiana."

ME-Sen: Rasmussen: Shenna Bellows (D): 24, Susan Collins (R-inc): 60.

MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. John Walsh launched two new ads on Monday. In the first, Walsh, a former commander of the Montana National Guard, touts his sponsorship of the Suicide Prevention for America's Veterans Act as he rides his motorcycle through the countryside with some fellow enthusiasts. The second extensively discusses Walsh's military service (this time featuring him on a bicycle), including leading combat troops in Iraq.

NC-Sen: Republican state House Speaker Thom Tillis has taken a sharp right turn in his latest ad, with just a week to go before the GOP primary. In the spot, he talks about how the legislature, under his leadership, placed a measure to ban same-sex marriage on the ballot (which passed in 2012). He also touts new abortion restrictions he shepherded into law.

NE-Sen: In a new ad, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn hits his chief rival, Midland University president Ben Sasse, on an unusual topic for a GOP primary: Obamacare. Osborn says he opposed the law "from the start" but accuses Sasse of "bragging on Obamacare." I can't say I'm familiar with the construction "bragging on," but apparently it means, "express some support for," and Osborn cites various writings by Sasse to argue he's been insufficiently hostile to the ACA.

NH-Sen: Here, have some delicious word salad prepared by chef Scott Brown, served with health care reform vinaigrette:

"I've always felt that people should either get some type of health care options, or pay for it with a nice competitive fee. That's all great. I believe it in my heart. In terms of pre-existing conditions, catastrophic coverage, covering kids—whatever we want to do, we can do it. As a matter of fact, in New Hampshire, I would encourage everybody to do a New Hampshire plan that works for New Hampshire, that deals with individual freedoms, and doesn't have mandates put on by bureaucrats in Washington ... a plan that is good for New Hampshire ... can include the Medicaid expansion folks who need that care and coverage."
Meanwhile, the Senate Majority PAC takes a double whack at Brown in their newest ad, accusing him of being a shill for big oil and shopping around for a new Senate seat while toting his "Big Oil baggage."

NY-Sen: Here's an interesting piece from Capital New York that delves into the backstory behind then-Gov. David Paterson's decision to tap Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, after Clinton was confirmed as secretary of state in 2009. The article was occasioned by Paterson's release of 56 boxes of papers from his administration, which include materials on the appointment process.

At the time, Paterson handled the affair poorly, making a series of contradictory public remarks before finally settling on Gillibrand. Now, though, he's offering some candid commentary to go along with this document dump, including the fact that he handicapped every scenario with Andrew Cuomo—even though Cuomo was among those under consideration. But Cuomo, Paterson says, didn't "push" for the job, and he understood Paterson's desire to name a woman to the post.


IA-Gov, -Sen: Whaddya know. We've got another poll showing GOP Gov. Terry Branstad in surprisingly weak shape against his unheralded Democratic challenger, state Sen. Jack Hatch, and this time it's from a Republican outfit. In fact, the survey in question was conducted by Vox Populi, Mary Cheney's new firm, on behalf of the conservative Daily Caller, and it finds Branstad with a small 45-43 edge on Hatch, by far the narrowest lead he's ever held. However, a recent PPP poll put Branstad up just 43-38, and five straight polls now have put him in the mid-to-low 40s.

As for the Senate race, the Daily Caller went cheap and didn't test Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley against the field. Rather, they paired him with the generic "Republican candidate" and find him up 42-41. Meanwhile, Senate hopeful Mark Jacobs, has decided to join the Steve Southerland/Phil Gingrey Brotherhood of Underpaid Congressmen:

Here's GOP Senate candidate Mark Jacobs on whether he would forgo his Senate salary if he wins the office: "I don't think U.S. senators make that much money, but again, you know, I'm willing to make significant investment of my time and energy here to help solve the problems we have in this country. (Jacobs' campaign later clarified: "He's never really looked into how much U.S. senators make. The point he was trying to make is that no matter what U.S. senators make, he's not doing it for the money.")
Jacobs, a wealthy businessman who has given his own campaign over $1.6 million, is one of two frontrunners for the Republican nod. We'll see if his chief rival, state Sen. Joni Ernst, tries to make hay out of this blunder.

MA-Gov: The super PAC of the National Association of Government Employees is running a new ad attacking Republican Charlie Baker for increasing premiums and dropping coverage while he was CEO of a health insurance company, while at the same time increasing his pay.

NY-Gov: The New York State Democratic Party is running a pair of new ads slamming Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino as an ultra-conservative who violated anti-discrimination laws, stemming from a long-running battle with the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The spots cite a New York Times editorial that helps explain the background.

WI-Gov: A Republican media buying firm that bought air time in Wisconsin for the RGA earlier this year has now made a $1.9 million TV reservation for the final two months of the campaign. It's not known whether Target Enterprises' client is once again the RGA, but with GOP Gov. Scott Walker only riding a narrow lead in the polls, it's a pretty reasonable bet.


CA-31: California's top-two primary is now just five weeks away, and the two leading Democrats in the race have both just launched their first TV ads. Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar's spot features his two grandmothers who pepper him with questions, like "You're going to protect Medicare and Social Security?" and "You'll still answer me when I call you 'Petey Pie'?"

Attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes, meanwhile, goes the biographical route, describing how she moved up from farming onions during summers as a teenager to becoming "the first Latina to ever open a law firm in San Bernardino County." Says Reyes: "I made the journey, but for people these days, that journey has become so much harder."

FL-13: Attorney Jessica Ehrlich, who ran a creditable campaign against the late Rep. Bill Young in 2012 but was shunted aside by the Democratic establishment in favor of Alex Sink in the special election earlier this year, has decided against seeking this seat once more this fall. There's a new possible name on the horizon, though: wealthy developer Joel Cantor, who is apparently considering a bid against GOP Rep. David Jolly, according to the DCCC.

LA-05: Republican Rep. Vance McAllister, forever immortalized on security camera footage as the "kissing congressman," has decided not to seek re-election, according to the Monroe News-Star. He does, however, say he won't resign and plans to finish out his term.

Last year, McAllister, a wealthy businessman who owns an oil company and several restaurant franchises, won a major upset in a special election to replace ex-Rep. Rodney Alexander. McAllister defeated a fellow Republican, state Sen. Neil Riser, who had the backing of the entire GOP establishment. But in part by campaigning in favor of accepting federal Medicaid expansion funds, McAllister prevailed in the runoff, which was open to voters of all parties. (McAllister was also endorsed by Willie Robertson, star of the popular reality show Duck Dynasty, which is based in the district.)

In his very brief tenure, McAllister's most notable pre-scandal moment came in January, when he declared that his new job as a congressman "sucks" and "ain't no fun." Perhaps a bit presciently, though, he also added, "But the day I start enjoying it in Washington, D.C., is the day that I should come home."

And now, indeed, he'll be coming home for good. Earlier this month, an unknown someone with an axe to grind leaked a video of McAllister making out with a staffer at his district office in Monroe. Both McAllister and the aide are married (to other people, natch). Even in notoriously forgiving Louisiana, the fact that the indiscretion was actually caught on tape was just too much, particularly since McAllister ran as a family values Christian conservative, and high-level Republicans quickly called for his resignation.

McAllister, though, initially struck a defiant tone and insisted he'd stay in office and even run for another term. But sharks started to gather and one Republican candidate had already launched a campaign to unseat the incumbent, with many others still considering. (In this dark red district, a Republican is all but certain to succeed McAllister.) Evidently, McAllister finally succumbed to reality, realizing his chances at winning another term were remote at best. The scrutiny probably wasn't much fun, either. And now it's time we all blow him a kiss goodbye.

MT-AL: Former state Sen. Ryan Zinke spends most of his new ad talking about his grandmother, who was a "frontier schoolhouse teacher" in Montana. He also throws in a reference to his service as a Navy SEAL.

NC-06: A Public Opinion Strategies internal poll for Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. finds him with a 36-14 lead on Baptist pastor Mark Walker with just a week to go before the GOP primary. Two other candidates were at 6 percent apiece, though there are nine total Republicans running in this race to succeed retiring Rep. Howard Coble. That makes it trickier for Berger to avoid a runoff, but he only needs 40 percent to do so, and if his own numbers are accurate, he's very close.

OH-14: While Rep. Dave Joyce is likely to cruise to renomination against state Rep. Matt Lynch in next week's GOP primary, the American Hospital Association is nevertheless helping him out with a $115,000 flight of television ads. The spots do not appear to be available online.

PA-13: We now have TV ads from all four Democratic candidates in next month's primary, with new spots from ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies and physician Valerie Arkoosh. Margolies, in a soft callback to her famous vote in favor of Bill Clinton's 1993 budget, declares that "sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same," and then features footage of ex-Gov. Ed Rendell referencing the same event, along with a still of Clinton endorsing her.

Arkoosh, meanwhile, says her daughter is "excited about my campaign for Congress," as the youngster repeatedly "interrupts" filming to interject her own ideas. I've watched the spot a few times and don't really get the ad's whole shtick. In the middle, Arkoosh says she's "spent her career solving problems," from "the delivery room to helping the president pass health care reform," which gets kind of lost in the noise. Then her daughter's back at the end, insisting they record the whole thing again, only this time, with "more energy." Why would you talk your own ad down like this?

There's also an interesting backgrounder from the Philadelphia Inquirer arguing that the primary, which once looked like Margolies' to lose, is now a truly open four-way affair. There hasn't been any recent polling, but one consultant says: "I can give you a winning scenario for every one of those candidates." That could very well be the case.

UT-04: Despite bungling what looked like a sure win last cycle, and despite the fact that Utah's 4th Congressional District unexpectedly opened up late last year when Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson announced his retirement, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love easily earned the GOP nomination once again at her party's convention over the weekend. Love took 78 percent of the delegates' vote, compared to just 22 percent for businessman Bob Fuehr, meaning she cleared the 60 percent threshold necessary to avoid a primary.

Love will face attorney Doug Owens, son of ex-Rep. Wayne Owens, in November. But with Matheson gone, Democrats' chances of holding this 67 percent Romney seat are nil, and Daily Kos Elections rates the race as Safe Republican, giving the GOP an automatic pickup.

Grab Bag:

Colorado: Even though filing closed for Colorado's June 24 primary in early April, only now do we have an official candidate list.

Several Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. They are former Rep. (and 2006 gubernatorial nominee) Bob Beauprez; Secretary of State Scott Gessler; former state Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp; and former Rep. (and 2010 third-party gubernatorial nominee) Tom Tancredo. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Lean Democratic.

Colorado will also conduct elections for other statewide offices. Each party has one candidate for secretary of state and treasurer (with former Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey running for the latter). The Republicans have a primary for attorney general, with state House Minority Leader Mark Waller taking on Deputy Attorney General Cynthia Coffman. The winner will face Democrat and former Adams County District Attorney Don Quick.

Turning to federal races, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall will face a challenge from sophomore Republican Rep. Cory Gardner. Both Udall and Gardner are unopposed in the primary, and we currently rate the general as Lean Democratic, though Udall's edge is looking increasingly narrow.

Four Republicans are running to succeed Gardner in the 4th District. They are 2010 Senate nominee Ken Buck; Weld County Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer; Steve Laffey, a former Rhode Island mayor; and state Sen. Scott Renfroe. Romney won 59-39 here, and we rate the general as Safe Republican.

The rest of the state's delegation is running, and two Republicans have to fight to keep their seats. In the 3rd District, Rep. Scott Tipton will face former Democratic state Sen. Abel Tapia in a contest we rate as Likely Republican. In the swingy 6th District, Rep. Mike Coffman (the husband of the aforementioned Cynthia Coffman) is being challenged by former Democratic House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. This is going to be one of the most expensive contests in the nation, and we rate it as a Tossup.  (Jeff Singer)

Demographics: No doubt you're by now familiar with the idea that Democrats suffer from the lower turnout associated with off-year elections, largely because members of the "ascendant electorate" (young, single female, and/or non-white voters) are disproportionately likely to vote for Democratic presidential candidates but also less likely to show up for midterms. A sidebar accompanying Sasha Issenberg's new long-form piece for the New Republic presents data that puts this disparity between "reflex voters" (who vote every two years) and "unreliable voters" in very sharp relief. For example:

The average age of reflex voters is 58, while the average age of unreliable voters is 43;
53 percent of reflex voters are female, while 56 percent of unreliable voters are female;
77 percent of reflex voters are white, while 68 percent of unreliable voters are white;
52 percent of reflex voters say they're likely to vote Republican, while 38 percent of unreliable voters say they're likely to vote Republican; and
51 percent of reflex voters identify as conservative, while 34 percent of unreliable voters identify as conservative.

It's well worth reading the entire piece, especially if you haven't read Issenberg's 2013 book The Victory Lab, which is about the increasing scientification of predicting and driving turnout; the article, for the most part, is a distillation of the book and a helpful primer.

The good news is that this is an area of inquiry where the Democrats have really been leading the way, and the 2014 election is the first midterm where they're beginning to put large amounts of money into face-to-face voter contacts, targeted mailings, and the like, instead of just throwing more money at TV ads. The bad news, of course, is the numbers shown above, and just how steep the dropoff between on- and off-year electorates is. (David Jarman)

Polls: A conservative group called the Liberty Foundation just dumped a huge batch of polls conducted mid-month by Republican pollster Magellan Strategies, with PDFs that seem designed to mimic PPP's very closely. However, no crosstabs are provided, and they only tested one matchup for every race, even in contests where there are unsettled primaries. But in any event, here are all the numbers:

AK-Sen: Mark Begich (D-inc): 41, Dan Sullivan (R): 46

AR-Sen: Mark Pryor (D-inc): 43, Tom Cotton (R): 46

CO-Sen: Mark Udall (D-inc): 45, Cory Gardner (R): 42

CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 50, Bob Beauprez (R): 35

FL-Gov: Charlie Crist (D): 43 (D), Rick Scott (R-inc): 45

IA-Sen: Bruce Braley (D): 40, Mark Jacobs (R): 41

LA-Sen: Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 42, Bill Cassidy (R): 44

MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D): 46, Terri Lynn Land (R): 41

MI-Gov: Mark Schauer (D): 42, Rick Snyder (R): 45

NC-Sen: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 43

OH-Gov: Ed FitzGerald (D): 41, John Kasich (R-inc): 47

WI-Gov: Mary Burke (D): 47, Scott Walker (D-inc): 47

Most of these numbers make rough sense, though some seem a bit too bearish for Democrats (like IA-Sen) and some look very optimistic (such as WI-Gov, the first non-Rasmussen poll to find a tie). There's also the eyebrow-raising FL-Gov results, which give Scott the largest lead he's ever seen; in fact, this is only the second poll ever to show him ahead. And in Colorado, the huge spread between Udall and Hickenlooper is a bit hard to figure. Will there really be a lot of Gardner-Hickenlooper voters this fall? Still, plenty to chew over here.

Primaries: Despite Congress' considerable unpopularity, most House members have little to no opposition for renomination. However, every cycle at least a few unfortunate representatives find themselves tossed out of office in a primary. We take a look at the congressmen (there are no women on the list) who will have to fight to earn another shot from their own party. (Jeff Singer)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WI Gov tied? (9+ / 0-)

    That had me spitting my coffee out on my keyboard.

    OTOH, I don't think I've seen anywhere where Walker's got more than a solid 47% despite three years of nonstop campaigning and near-unlimited external spending. He might have hit his ceiling.

    Screw John Galt. Who's John Doe?

    by Mike Kahlow on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 05:11:34 AM PDT

    •  Latest poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mike Kahlow

      You won't see that one front paged in Wisconsin media like the ones touting a Walker win have been.

      I and others don't think it's the RGA that funneled that money into that mega ad buy for the last weeks of the campaign as the author did.  Some suspect it's a Milwaukee area multimillionaire couple, others suspect and outside group, I suspect it might be the billionaire Widow Hendricks or the Kochs since many in Wisconsin know that they're the big money behind AFP-Wisconsin and Club for Growth.

      Hiding the source of Big Money media buys is the most atrocious thing of all.  It says "shame" in big capital letters.

      There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

      by Puddytat on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 10:13:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC Sen GOP primary Civitas (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, Cadillac64

    Tillis 27
    Harris 16
    Bannon 13

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 05:36:36 AM PDT

  •  Astorino's (mis)handling of the HUD lawsuit (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sidnora, buffie, Aquarius40, Cadillac64

    issue has truly cost Westchester County.  Instead, he has demogogued the issue, while appealing to a white Republican base.   His approach to this is why I call him "Scott Walker with a NY accent".

    I’ve said before, I will always work with anyone who is willing to make this law work even better. But the debate over repealing this law is over. The Affordable Care Act is here to stay. -- President Barack Obama

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 05:50:19 AM PDT

  •  The new GOP logo should be (4+ / 0-)

    Wile E. Coyote emerging from under a piano

    Legal means "good".
    [41984 | Feb 4, 2005]

    by xxdr zombiexx on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 06:11:31 AM PDT

  •  Republicans are stuck with Grimm (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    buffie, bear83, LordMike, Cadillac64, a2nite, wdrath

    It appears that he can't be removed from the ballot under any circumstances -- even if he pleads guilty!

    The only possible scenario would be for him to move out of Staten Island to a judicial district where there is an election for a judgeship, and have the Republicans nominate him for that office. That might even be too much for the NY Republicans to stomach.

    Contribute to Domenic Recchia!

    Barack Obama carried this district, lets get a Dem in there!

  •  Getting Grimm (6+ / 0-)

    off the ballot and replaced with someone else is going to be a fascinating dance to watch, especially if he's still got his heels dug in a few weeks from now. But even if he decides to go quietly, NY election law is going to make this a delicate operation.

    In the meantime, we get to enjoy watching the Richmond County Republican Committee's public discomfort. And yes, the odds-on favorite (of both parties) to replace him appears to be Vito Fossella.

    Good times.

    "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."........ "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." (yeah, same guy.)

    by sidnora on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 06:20:02 AM PDT

  •  I'm braggin' on the fact (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I know what braggin' on means.

    I live under the bridge to the 21st Century.

    by Crashing Vor on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 06:20:15 AM PDT

  •  Westchester County's housing discrimination (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    long predated Astorino. He gets blamed for continuing the stonewalling, but Ds and Rs before him get the blame for creating the situation.

  •  Is this why (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Cadillac64

    Boehner was mocking the whining freshman congresscritters..

    In his very brief tenure, McAllister's most notable pre-scandal moment came in January, when he declared that his new job as a congressman "sucks" and "ain't no fun." Perhaps a bit presciently, though, he also added, "But the day I start enjoying it in Washington, D.C., is the day that I should come home."
    Cause that sounds like whining to me..

    Why do Republicans Hate Americans?

    by Caniac41 on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 06:24:40 AM PDT

  •  they have Burke tied with scotty? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cadillac64, WisVoter, Mike Kahlow

    Nice, I tend to think this is going to be a very close race, as Walker has had a full term, and isn't fully committed to a second. if polls start showing him behind, and in the mid-40s, you know he's in real trouble.

  •  RI polling, for what it's worth (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I seem to get polled by phone at least once a week. No one is asking about the Congressional race (Cicilline), which I consider a good sign. Incessant questions (and push-polling) about the Democratic primary for governor (Taveras -- Pell -- Raimondo -- some dude) and the Democratic primary for mayor of Providence, which I know so little about that I told the pollster last night that if the election were today, I'd leave the line blank, although if I could vote against Buddy Cianci 5x I would. (Is RI the only place where you get busted for corruption, serve several years in the clink, come out, and run again for the same job?)

    And the real mystery, which no one is asking about because it's officially not an open race yet, is whether the just-resigned Speaker of the House, Gordon Fox, will keep his House seat as my rep, or whether it will become an open seat. I suspect it depends on what the ongoing state-Federal law enforcement investigation turns up. The fallout is that RI is back to a conservative Democrat (DINO) as Speaker of the House, the most powerful position in the state.

  •  Of course Grimm will run again. When have (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Cadillac64, a2nite

    Republicans ever punished their candidates for corrupt business practices? Sen. Young of Alaska lost his election bid by a few hundred votes following felony convictiion. Republicans double down on failure. What they believe always trunps what they know.

    Slow thinkers - keep right

    by Dave the Wave on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 07:04:10 AM PDT

  •  Seeing some weird commercials here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Cadillac64

    For the Washington State Senate position. There's a Republican candidate, a lady doctor named Wehbie who is running against Obamacare.

    The first couple of commercials were so, well odd, that at first I wondered if they weren't some kind of parody ad. (For examples, promises to stopping money being spent in Washington, but it's not clear which Washington she's talking about.) But i saw one this morning that confirms that Wehbie is, indeed, a serious candidate: the Koch candidate for Washington state.

  •  PA-13: would not be surprised if Brendan Boyle (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    wins the 4-person Dem primary.  

    I said this months ago on here and the article in the Phila Inquirer cited above has some local politicos supporting the idea also.

    The 4 candidates will appear on the ballot with the name of each candidate's home county below each name.  I am not sure in what order the candidates will appear but for sake of example I will list them in alphabetical order:

    Valerie Arkoosh
           Montgomery County

    Brendan Boyle
           Philadelphia County

    Daylin Leach
           Montgomery County

    Marjorie Margolies
           Montgomery County

    Half of the PA-13 voters are in Philadelphia county and half are in Montgomery County.

    Geography could give Brendan Boyle a significant boost and low information voters in Philadelphia may vote for him on that basis alone.

    He has an Irish name, a name that could appeal to the large number of Catholics in the  District.  He and his brother are both incumbent state representatives in the PA-13 District.  He has several local labor unions supporting him.  The Philadelphia politicians are almost uniformly supporting Boyle - they want one of their own in Congress when they need help for the city from Congress.  He's the son of a transit agency maintenance custodian father and a school crossing guard mother - a real up-from-the-bootstraps story.  He is the only non-millionaire of the 4 and his opponents have declined to disclose their tax returns.  The Philadelphia ward leaders will have people outside every voting precinct in the Philadelphia half of the District handing out sample ballots and they will be pigeon-holing every person who walks up to vote to vote for the local guy, the guy like them, the Philadelphia guy.

    He's not the candidate to whom I have contributed money and for whom I will be voting, but if I had to bet on who is likely to win the primary, I'd be hard-pressed not to choose Brendan Boyle.

  •  bragging on=bragging about... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Southern terminology.

    The truth is always the truth whether you choose to believe it or not.

    by sfsteach on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 07:54:42 AM PDT

  •  COMING SOON (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in a related story Grimm suggests his experience in prison gives him a better understanding of the NY and Federal Penal systems.

  •  Paterson (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    As time goes on, I think David Paterson's tenure as governor will be viewed more and more favorably.

    I never really understood the derision of his Senate appointment process as mishandled. Apparently his big screw-up was in taking too long to decide, and being honest about that?  Everything else seems to be sour grapes from Kennedy partisans.

  •  IA Gov, Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Progress Iowa is running an attack ad against Gov. Branstad that shows why he is in trouble.

    The poll that shows Bruce Braley behind Mark Jacobs is scary, but I'm skeptical. And Jacobs may not be the nominee. I think Joni Ernst (who castrates pigs) is more likely.

  •  So NY & NJ rubes can hire (0+ / 0-)

    "Sleezy defense lawyers", but in SC just being a defense attorney is a sin?


    Jesus only performs miracles for people with enough time on their hands to make that crap up.

    by KneecapBuster on Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 11:29:56 AM PDT

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