Skip to main content

various forecasts of competitive senate races.
Here's the Upshot's  Senate model. Scroll down and hit "spin".
Tom Kludt:
Josh Kraushaar was wildly off the mark with his projections for the 2012 presidential race, but the National Journal editor is hardly chastened.

Calling himself a "numbers guy," Kraushaar offered up a rebuttal on Tuesday to Nate Silver, the polling guru who nailed the outcome of the 2012 contest in all 50 states.

In his column, Kraushaar questioned the current Senate forecasts from Silver's FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times' Upshot.

According to Kraushaar, the statistical models are underrating the GOP's chances in Iowa and overrating Republican prospects in Michigan.

@jbplainblog is speaking a whole lot of sense here about forecasting models (including ours with @monkeycageblog): http://t.co/...
@hezaproject
Jonathan Bernstein:
Time to return to an electoral literacy project: how to read election projection models.

This comes up because Josh Kraushaar picked a fight with Nate Silver and the Upshot projections this morning:

[C]ount me underwhelmed by the new wave of Senate prediction models assessing the probability of Republicans winning the upper chamber by one-tenth of a percentage point. It's not that the models aren't effective at what they're designed to do. It's that the methodology behind them is flawed. Unlike baseball, where the sample size runs in the thousands of at-bats or innings pitched, these models overemphasize a handful of early polls at the expense of on-the-ground intelligence on candidate quality. As Silver might put it, there's a lot of noise to the signal.
Here’s the thing: It should be possible for a careful observer to beat the projection systems. But first, you have to understand what they’re saying.
And what they're saying is things can change, but if they don't, we're right. Unless you specifically know something the models don't (which is possible.)

More politics and policy below the fold.

Jonathan Chait on reports of increased health spending:

Sorry, but this is just confused. There was always going to be a spike in aggregate health-care spending in 2014, as millions of previously uninsured people suddenly gained access to medical care for the first time. (People like the Fox News–watching Philadelphia man who hated Obamacare but finally relented, signed up for insurance, and got a life-saving operation this month.)

If you think I’m simply making up some after-the-fact excuse, advocates of health-care reform were pointing this out at the time the bill was being debated. Here’s Jonathan Cohn explaining in 2009 how the new health-care law was projected by Medicare actuaries to bend the long-term curve of health spending downward while still allowing for a big spike when new customers came online in 2014:

The cost-cutting measures start right away; the expansion/strengthening of insurance starts in 2014 …

Reform lowers the rate of growth of health spending for a few years, primarily with Medicare savings. Then the rate of growth jumps up above baseline as the uninsured are brought into the system (the effect is really a one time increase in spending, but it shows up as big rates of growth for a few years as the uninsured are covered and use more services). Then things settle down back to the point where the rate of growth is below baseline, reflecting the effect of Medicare savings and the tax on high cost insurance plans.

He even had a chart!

helath care expenditure projections, spiking in 2014
either CEO of nation's 2nd largest insurer is lying to investors, or Republicans are peddling meaningless datapoint http://t.co/...
@7im
Neil Irwin:
By 2020, about 90 percent of American workers who now receive health insurance through their employers will be shifted to government exchanges created by the health law, according to a projection by S&P Capital IQ, a research firm serving the financial industry.

It’s not an outlandish notion. Ezekiel Emanuel, an architect of the Affordable Care Act, has long predicted a similar shift.

But the scope and speed of the shift is surprising. So is the amount of money that companies could save. The S&P researchers tried to estimate what it would save the biggest American companies. Their answer: $700 billion between 2016 and 2025, or about 4 percent of the total value of those companies. The total could reach $3.25 trillion for all companies with more than 50 employees.

They assume those savings will accrue to companies’ bottom lines, though there are also compelling reasons to think that some of those savings would end up in the pockets of American workers in the form of higher wages or other benefits.

Charles Blow:
Don Sterling’s racist rant, on a recording published by TMZ, has earned him a lifetime ban by the N.B.A. and cost him a second — second? — lifetime achievement award from the Los Angeles chapter of the N.A.A.C.P. The N.A.A.C.P.?!

Reaction to the recording was swift, as reactions can be to unambiguous horrors, but questions still linger: Why had the N.B.A. not acted before on Sterling’s well-known racist behavior? What on earth was the Los Angeles N.A.A.C.P. thinking in extending a lifetime achievement award to this man? Will Sterling be forced to sell his team or will he find some way to maintain control of it? Why does the emotional reaction to interpersonal racism drown out the muted response to institutional racism, which actually does more damage?

Dahlia Lithwick:
When the Death Penalty Turns Into Torture

Oklahoma’s botched execution was the grim but predictable result of a state more concerned with vengeance than justice.

EJ Dionne:
[LA Clippers owner Donald] Sterling could not survive his taped ramblings because he is part of an institution in which African Americans are, in the most literal sense, the key players — some 76 percent of the members of NBA teams are African American. In responding to Sterling, the men whose talents draw the audiences demonstrated a form of solidarity that their employers, Sterling’s fellow owners, simply could not ignore.
By the way, early plug for Sunday: I'm interviewing EJ Dionne on the paper he co-wrote at Brookings on religious progressives and social justice. Read the paper here.

The Onion:

Clippers Retire Donald Sterling Jersey
Donald Steriling's Clippers jersey, #1 Asshole
EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  I have a teaching job for next year (17+ / 0-)

    and I explain a bit about it in this post which I invite you to read

    peace

    --

    "Don't ask what the world needs. Ask what makes you come alive and go do it, because what the world needs is more people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

    by teacherken on Thu May 01, 2014 at 04:39:10 AM PDT

  •  urging people to read two of columns featured (7+ / 0-)

    by Greg.

    E. J. Dionne has a very good column

    the column by Charles M. Blow is superb, an appropriate followup to the one he did Saturday on our other recently notable racist

    I was prepared to take time to post on either or both had they not been featured, because I think people should be reading them.

    "Don't ask what the world needs. Ask what makes you come alive and go do it, because what the world needs is more people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

    by teacherken on Thu May 01, 2014 at 04:41:29 AM PDT

  •  In your dreams, American worker! (16+ / 0-)
    They assume those savings will accrue to companies’ bottom lines, though there are also compelling reasons to think that some of those savings would end up in the pockets of American workers in the form of higher wages or other benefits.
    [Emphasis mine]

    Since when has business ever shared savngs or profits with workers? I'll believe it when I see it.

    Thanks for the roundup, Greg, best wishes on the interview with E.J. Dionne.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Thu May 01, 2014 at 04:44:50 AM PDT

  •  Oh My....Benghazeee brought up on Morning Joke (9+ / 0-)

    and Scarborough starts foaming at the mouth......Not that the GOP gives a damn about what happened there...the sub subtext is that Obama stole the election.

  •  What's Neil Irwin been smoking? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greg Dworkin, Sherri in TX

    Or, actually what have the analysts at S&P Capital IQ been smoking?

    While we know one of Ezekiel Emanuel's dreams in his design of ACA was to get rid of employer paid health insurance, thinking 90% of employers will drop coverage in less than 6 years is loony.

    The employer mandate hasn't even kicked in for cripes sakes.

    Employees, even given offsetting raises to pay for exchange health plans, would riot.  The tax advantages of employer provided health insurance, whether you believe them fair or not, are too compelling to be dropped.  And the idea that politicians, who have pushed back the implementation of ACA time and time again for electoral reasons, would repeal those tax breaks is preposterous.

    •  so much fun watching you deal with ACA news (8+ / 0-)

      that doesn't fit your misconceptions ;-)

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:02:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  but yeah, don't take it as gospel n/t (4+ / 0-)

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:03:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Have you forgotten who's in charge? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DRo, Stude Dude, Fury

      As Dick Durbin famously admitted, "And the banks -- hard to believe in a time when we're facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created -- are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place."  (And he should know, being one of those owned.)  So if the Big Boys on Wall Street want it, the Big Boys on Wall Street will have it...

    •  assume companies would still have lower costs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bufffan20, Odysseus, Shawn87

      If companies (employers) would have lower costs (to the company) by offering no employer-sponsored health coverage for its employees versus offering such coverage with the cost to the employer company benefiting from the favorable tax treatment, then most companies will transition to dropping their sponsored health coverage for their employees.

      Companies are almost always seeking to lower costs and to increase profits.

      Once the ACA settles in for a few years and companies can do year over year comparisons of costs and potentially increased profits, I assume the pace of companies' dropping their company-sponsored health coverage will accelerate.

      COBRA also looks to be a dinosaur (more expensive than ACA coverage) and will likely disappear even faster than employer sponsored health plans.

      I doubt if either of these trends and likely occurrences will surprise the members of Congress and the Administration who understand the USA's medical economy.  

      •  If the exchanges were national, perhaps. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DRo

        If you could add "portability" as a feature, you could much more easily sell it to employees.

        But state based exchanges offer very limited portability.  Some plans are zip-code specific within a state!

        Once the ACA settles in for a few years and companies can do year over year comparisons of costs and potentially increased profits
        Indeed.. but we also need to see how stable the rates will be over the first few years and measure consumer satisfaction with plans offered on the exchanges.  It's way too early to tell, but grumblings of narrow networks, etc. leave me underwhelmed in the program some around here (ahem) consider a rousing success.
        •  we like that millions of people who (6+ / 0-)

          couldn't get insurance now can. We like not having to deal with preexisting conditions. Ask about provisions, not the law or the name, and Americans agree.

          plenty of growing pains. Impossible to enact change w/o disruption.

          What else?

          "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:54:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but switching to another exchange (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SoCalSal

          is not that big of a deal when you know that even if you move to a red state, you can still access affordable health care through the federal exchange.
          That is what portability means.

          Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

          by skohayes on Thu May 01, 2014 at 08:35:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  and start another deductible.. (0+ / 0-)

            that is hardly the portability I was referring to..

            I want to buy insurance from Flo or the Gecko and not have to worry about it.

            •  You are still allowed to buy (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JJ In Illinois, Radiowalla

              insurance without going through the exchanges (for which you'd still have to pay another deductible). That's never changed.

              Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

              by skohayes on Thu May 01, 2014 at 11:17:17 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  yes, but no plan is portable across state lines. (0+ / 0-)

                I wish ACA had done something about that.

                •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

                  Do you think states shouldn't be allowed to regulate insurers that sell their product in that state?

                  Your beliefs don't make you a better person. Your behavior does.

                  by skohayes on Fri May 02, 2014 at 03:27:36 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yes, I do (0+ / 0-)

                    ACA has thrown out any regulatory power states once had.  Can a state alter the minimum requirements of ACA?  No.  Then what point is there in states having any regulatory powers over health insurance?  It's silly.. they have none now.

                    •  nonsense (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      skohayes

                      rate hikes remain state approval dependent, as one example.

                      Just to prove a point, if what you said were true, all 50 states would expand Medicaid.

                      Want a more technical/legal opinion?

                      Abstract:      
                      Last term, the United States Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act in a landmark decision. It is a forceful reminder that America’s oldest question — how power should be shared between federal and state sovereigns — retains powerful political salience. Critics have reflexively attacked the decision as an assault on states’ rights, while supporters have celebrated the result. Regrettably, insufficient attention has been paid to how, in actuality, health care regulatory authority has been and will be divided between federal and state governments. In this Article, we fill that gap. To do so, we apply “federalism-in-fact,” a theory that seeks to measure the real-world, as opposed to theoretical, apportionment of power between sovereigns. We conclude that the Affordable Care Act has in important ways increased states’ power to regulate private health insurance when viewed in proper contrast to the previously exclusive ERISA regulatory regime. In addition, we offer recommendations on how states can use their freedom under the Affordable Care Act to grow their regulatory markets, and we explain why collateral forces are likely to increase state regulatory power even if states do nothing.

                      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                      by Greg Dworkin on Fri May 02, 2014 at 04:36:28 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Oh lord.. when they start using the word "nuanced" (0+ / 0-)

                        you know you are in for a load of BS...

                        Greg - the feds, through ACA, tell insurers what they MUST cover, what can and cannot be charged for,  who can purchase it, etc..

                        These guys are loons.. saying in one breath ERISA means health insurance had already been highly regulated and in another saying

                        ERISA regulates health insurance promises even more lightly than it regulates pensions.
                        The individual mandate certainly infringes on state power. Prior to the ACA, each state had the freedom to decide whether or not it wished to impose a mandate on its citizens.87 The states now lack that authority: no state may exempt its citizens from the federal requirement to purchase health insurance. We do not deny this obvious truth, but believe it should be put in appropriate perspective.

                        We accept that there are a significant number of states that would have never adopted a mandate if left with discretion. With respect to those states, the regulatory
                        deprivation associated with the imposition of a federal mandate is significant.

                        No, duh.

                        So, it comes down to this..

                        Second, we do not deny that, in important ways, the ACA does limit state authority to promulgate both
                        sickness and non-sickness rules. We discuss those specifics in more detail in Section III.D, and also consider objections that our analysis prioritizes a few trees at the ex-pense of the forest. But first, we explain that, in addition to giving states freedom to enact sickness and non-sickness rules, the ACA will also increase the number of people over whom states have regulatory authority.
                        So, their entire argument rests on the fact that because ACA increases the number of people that can be regulated, the state's regulatory authority is somehow "increased" - even while admitting the number of things the state has regulatory power over is greatly diminished.  The state can demand more benefits than ACA, but not less.. oh boy!

                        Like I said above.. regulatory authority is mostly gone from the state's perspective, and this article only supports that.  We should move to a nationwide insurance industry for portability purposes.

                        And if I was running the show, the whole thing would be based on a universal catastrophic fund for all.

                        •  what you said was (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          skohayes

                          states have NO regulatory power any more.

                          What you said is wrong.

                          "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" — Upton Sinclair

                          by Greg Dworkin on Fri May 02, 2014 at 10:39:30 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  None worth a hill of beans (0+ / 0-)

                            So, to clarify,  here: All important regulatory power has been usurped by the feds.  Ok?  They left the states with a "pretend" amount of regulation.

                            List 5 important items the states still have regulatory control over.

                            We are now down to arguing whether these dolts you referenced have succeeded in pretending states have any rights at all. They Failed.  End of story.

  •  Insurance (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, METAL TREK, Fury, Odysseus, Shawn87

    I'm now a federal worker, the insurance (worthwhile) is extremely expensive. Damn right I'm headed to the Federal market. I'm going to get the best price for the best coverage.
    Its time that those that cry about capitalism realize that it cuts both ways. They don't offer what's good or at a good price you should go out of business.

    "Ward, I think you were a little hard on The Beaver last night." -June Cleaver

    by rageagnstmach on Thu May 01, 2014 at 04:53:44 AM PDT

  •  ... (7+ / 0-)

    Be the change you want to see in the world. -Gandhi

    by DRo on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:01:27 AM PDT

  •  Michigan Statistical Models (5+ / 0-)

    One thing that is never considered is the huge Arabic population in the Dearborn area, almost all of whom vote regularly. Also, many Michigan voters were still in the South (the Snowbird factor) when first polls were taken.

    The key is turnout. Michigan has tens of thousands of retired union members, but they are mostly "retired" from protecting their fellow workers.

    •  The key to the entire 2014 election (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      I love OCD, Fury, Shawn87

      all across the country, and for many elections after that, is turnout.  If every Democrat who's able is not doing something to encourage Democratic turnout in upcoming elections, we can't expect a favorable outcome.

      "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke

      by SueDe on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:55:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's just going to be 2010 for most... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bufffan20

    ...polling that we will see emphasized...until it isn't.

    Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:10:11 AM PDT

  •  Bill Rhoden of NY Times writes on Donald Sterling (0+ / 0-)

    in this powerful column about which I have posted here.

    You should read the Rhoden original.

    That is the purpose of my post, although I would certainly be honored if you were to find my words worthy of reading and perhaps recommending as well.

    Peace.

    "Don't ask what the world needs. Ask what makes you come alive and go do it, because what the world needs is more people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

    by teacherken on Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:12:05 AM PDT

  •  I had no idea. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, DRo, SoCalSal

    Johnathan Turley, in his legal blog Res ipsa loquitor, tells his readers about the administration's plans for something that had not crossed my mind, in his post Obama Administration Moves Toward Tolls On Interstate Highways.  The title of the piece speaks for itself, but here's a snippet:

    I have previously written about the proliferation of toll roads in the United States as governments shift the cost of highways to citizens while spending wildly on foreign wars and losing billions of waste. Congress allows billions to literally disappear in places like Iraq and Afghanistan or give billions in aid to affluent countries like Israel, but it insists that American citizens already struggling financially should be forced to pay to use their federal roads. The change is a fundamental shift in our approach to highways which were viewed as the basic service supplied to taxpayers. However, the Administration has quickly open[ed] the door in the new transportation bill to end the long tradition of free federal highways.
    Oh my achin' pocketbook.

    "All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing" - Edmund Burke

    by SueDe on Thu May 01, 2014 at 06:06:38 AM PDT

  •  Since this is open thread.... (0+ / 0-)

    Does anybody know how to match up a ring and pinion where the paint marks are long gone?

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Thu May 01, 2014 at 06:20:00 AM PDT

  •  The 538 logo? (0+ / 0-)

    Is it a visual pun on a fox head and a pencil tip?

    "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

    by Stude Dude on Thu May 01, 2014 at 06:21:02 AM PDT

  •  BTW (0+ / 0-)

    Donald Sterling owns the LA Clippers in the NBA not the LA Kings in the NHL.

  •  Another Heritage reason not to expand Medicaid (0+ / 0-)

    I clicked on the link in Jonathan Chait's article about the guy who hated Obamacare but signed up and got a life-saving operation and there was a link on the page to this op-ed:

    New Medicaid welfare trap

    It was written by Ed Haislmaier is a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Center for Health Policy Studies and is yet another effort by the Heritage Foundation against expanding Medicaid.

    Basically their argument is that people will willingly stay in low-wage jobs so they qualify for this expanded Medicaid. The author also called these low-wage workers an employer's least productive workers.

    So, guess who's going to be put into Medicaid if states adopt the expansion?

    It won't be poor children - they're covered by Medicaid. Poor pregnant women and almost all disabled adults are, too. Nor will it be the elderly poor - they have Medicare. Furthermore, many low-income parents of children on Medicaid are themselves covered by Medicaid.

    All the new Medicaid enrollees will be adults, and almost all will be able-bodied. Only one of every seven will have dependent children. And more than half will be between the ages of 19 and 34.

    Thus, the expansion will function as a large welfare benefit for able-bodied, childless, young adults. They will be able to get and keep that free health care as long as they don't earn too much - a situation that employers will gladly help them arrange.

    and, of course, we have this:
    Today, half of all Medicaid beneficiaries are poor children. But for states that adopt the Obamacare expansion, the new face of Medicaid will be a 28-year-old graduate student hanging out in a coffee house, writing his dissertation, and working the other side of the counter a few days a week.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site