Look-back just 5 five years ago, most of the world's 'credible' Scientists gave the odds of 90% -- that "that humans are causing a global temperature change that will reach between 3.2 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century."
Some big name Science Groups too. They certainly know when 2 + 2 = 4.
Is Global Warming a Myth?
How to respond to people who doubt the human impact on the climate
EarthTalk, scientificamerican.com -- Apr 8, 2009
[...]
Upwards of 800 skeptics (most of whom are not scientists) took part in the second annual International Conference on Climate Change -- sponsored by the Heartland Institute, a conservative think tank -- in March 2009. Keynote speaker and Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorologist Richard Lindzen told the gathering that “there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in minor greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons.”
[...]
To wit, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences declared in 2005 that “greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise,” adding that “the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action.” Other leading U.S. scientific bodies, including the American Meteorological Society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Geophysical Union have issued concurring statements -- placing the blame squarely on humans’ shoulders.
Also, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of 600 leading climate scientists from 40 nations, says it is “very likely” (more than a 90 percent chance) that humans are causing a global temperature change that will reach between 3.2 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century.
[...]
That was 2009 --
now fast-forward to 2013 ... those scientists just reached a 'credibility' consensus of 95% -- that "humans are causing the current global warming."
You're Getting Warmer …
How do scientists quantify their doubt?
by Daniel Engber, slate.com -- Aug. 20 2013
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in a draft report, estimates that it’s 95 percent certain that humans are causing the current global warming. They further predict that sea level will rise by three feet by the end of the century. [...]
If you were given 19 in 20 odds that your house (or campsite) would be washed away in a flood, or consumed by a landslide -- you might think about upgrading your Insurance (or perhaps even moving to a safer locale).
The thing about that 95% chance of continued Climate Changes (and continued Global Warming, and Extreme Weather events) -- those "safer locales" will become fewer and farther between.
You can be 'nearly certain' of that. That our changing climate systems will know no bounds ... every place on the globe, is effected by the weather.
And if 95% certainty is not enough for you (and your government) to take action -- just take a look at this recent scientific study. Using historical data alone (no computer models) this data-crunching scientist has just pushed the "human-cause warming" hypothesis, to well above the 99% level of likeliness.
ie. It's practically certain that we humans are warming the planet. (Just looking at all the melting ice around the planet, should have been our first clue.)
Is global warming just a giant natural fluctuation?
Statistical analysis rules out natural-warming hypothesis with more than 99% certainty
News releases, McGill University, mcgill.ca/research -- 11 Apr 2014
[...]
The study, published online April 6 in the journal Climate Dynamics, represents a new approach to the question of whether global warming in the industrial era has been caused largely by man-made emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature.
“This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers,” Lovejoy says. “Their two most convincing arguments -- that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong -- are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”
Lovejoy’s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.”
[...]
If you were given 999 in 1000 odds that your
house planet were
on track for major environmental
disruptions --
floods, droughts, fires, hurricanes, crop failures, water shortages, population dislocations -- you'd think that our so-called leaders might actually get off their butts and DO SOMETHING about it.
-- But No. We can not act. Not until we are 100% certain, that we humans -- burning our fossil fuels -- are indeed the carbon cause of the planet's rapidly changing climates.
ALL because we still have well-funded corporate interests -- still telling us (and our so-called leaders) -- that:
"Human-caused Global Warming is just a Myth." (with 'the odds' of that, strangely unstated.)
Source: Drexel University, Dec 20, 2013, phys.org -- larger image
Because afterall, that is what the denial-groups are being very-well paid to do. To simply ignore the Science.
Source: DeSmogBlog, www.desmogblog.com/2012/11/15/why-climate-deniers-have-no-credibility-science-one-pie-chart
Their credibility for denying Climate Change, is based on little more than boisterous "Hot Air."
And a very, VERY, thin slice of Nothing!
Here are the footnotes to that recent 2014 Statistical Analysis of historical weather data back to 1880 -- disproving the Denier's main theses -- again provided by McGill University:
“Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming”, S. Lovejoy, Climate Change, published online April 6, 2014.
Links to the research paper:
link.springer.com/search?query=10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2128-2
physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/eprints/eprintLovejoy/neweprint/Anthro.climate.dynamics.13.3.14.pdf
Link to Professor Lovejoy's website, including Q&A and graphs related to the paper:
physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm
The presumptive claims made by Climate Change
Denial Industry should no longer be just accepted as another viable, or
credible theory.
There is only 1 out of 1000 chance that they are right, based on the historical weather data. Who'd want to take that bet -- with those odds!? ... when your children's futures hinging on the result?
Source: Greenland Ice Cap. And it is melting, thulegreenlandsite.com
The presumptive claims made by deniers are simply "incredible."
As is the physical evidence, melting away right before our once-incredulous eyes.