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9:06 AM PT: WV-02: Despite engaging in one of the most blatant acts of carpetbagging in recent memory, former Maryland state GOP chair Alex Mooney captured the Republican nomination for West Virginia's open 2nd Congressional District in Tuesday night's primary, in the race to succeed Shelley Moore Capito. Mooney, generally portrayed as a tea partier in spite of his establishment roots, won with 36 percent, while self-funding pharmacist Ken Reed took 22 and former U.S. Trader Commissioner Charlotte Lane finished third with 18.

Mooney will now face former state Democratic Party Chair Nick Casey, who defeated state Del. Meshea Poore 60 to 40. (Oh, and in case there was any doubt, the party organization Casey used to head up was West Virginia's.) Democrats have a plausible shot at picking up this seat, which is the state's bluest judging by presidential numbers—though at 60-38 Romney, it's certainly not blue. But Casey is a better candidate than Mooney, and the district is ancestrally Democratic. Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Lean Republican.

9:35 AM PT: GA-Sen: Despite a few hiccups, wealthy businessman David Perdue's been riding high in the polls for some time. Thanks to his free-spending ways (Perdue used to be CEO of the discount chain Dollar General), Perdue has dominated the airwaves in Georgia's Republican Senate primary and staked himself to a small but consistent—if not growing—lead over the last couple of months. The only real fight has been between the two potential runners-up, Rep. Jack Kingston and former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who are both vying for the second slot in order to make the July 22 runoff alongside Perdue.

But with less than a week to go before Election Day, it seems that Perdue just experienced a massive outbreak of sanity—the kind of sanity that, among Republican voters, could easily cost a candidate running in a GOP primary. In a recent meeting with the editorial board of the Macon Telegraph, flagged by ThinkProgress, Perdue appeared to go stark raving sane:

"Is it better to try to get out of the ditch by curbing the growth of spending or increasing revenue?" an editorial board member asked.

"Both," Perdue replied emphatically.

"And that's a euphemism for some kind of tax increase, of course," the interviewer noted.

Perdue laughed and explained, "Well here's the reality: If you go into a business, and I keep coming back to my background, it's how I know how to relate is to refer back to it—I was never able to turn around a company just by cutting spending. You had to figure out a way to get revenue growing. And what I just said, there are five people in the U.S. Senate who understand what I just said. You know revenue is not something they think about."

It's interesting to see that the dodgy government-as-business analogy, which so often is deployed to service a conservative agenda, is here being used to buttress a liberal priority, and by a Republican, no less. Of course, Perdue's wrong by an order of magnitude about how many senators understand the need for increased revenues—Democrats grasp this perfectly well—but this certainly isn't the first time he's displayed more than a touch of arrogance when it comes to his supposed business acumen.

Was it also arrogance that drove Perdue to speak such heresies against conservative dogma? Ronald Reagan's famous 11th commandment for Republicans has long since been usurped by a new doctrine: "Thou shalt never raise taxes." Perdue's not a seasoned politician (indeed, he's never run for office before), so maybe he just cracked of out turn. Or maybe he figures none of his opponents have the resources to use this against him. But Kingston, at least, still has plenty of money, and there's also that runoff to worry about.

So either one of two things is likely to happen: Perdue will have to half-apologize and claim he didn't mean what he said, or he'll stand by his statements and pay the price. Door number three, of course, is that he sticks with his pro-tax hiking stance and wins anyway. But in today's Republican Party, is that really the outcome you want to bet on?

9:52 AM PT: NE-Sen, -Gov, -02: Tuesday night's primaries in Nebraska brought one blowout, one barnburner, and one shocking near-upset. In the open-seat GOP primary for Senate, Midland University President Ben Sasse, who had locked down the support of the entire tea party establishment, crushed the field with 49 percent of the vote. A late surge by self-funding banker Sid Dinsdale fell far short, as Dinsdale only took 22 percent. Former state Treasurer Shane Osborn finished in third with 21—a humiliating fall from grace for the one-time frontrunner. Sasse will face Democratic attorney Dave Domina in November, in a race we rate as Safe Republican.

On the flipside, the Republican primary for governor (also an open race) wasn't called until after midnight Eastern time. Wealthy businessman Pete Ricketts edged past state Attorney General Jon Bruning 26-25, while state Sen. Beau McCoy took third with 21, leapfrogging ahead of better-known state Auditor Mike Foley, who finished with just 19. For Bruning, it's his second serious loss in as many cycles, and like his defeat in the 2012 Senate primary, he was once the favorite here, too. Ricketts will square off against former University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook in the general election. We rate the race as Likely Republican.

Finally, in Nebraska's 2nd District, Rep. Lee Terry has definitely done something to piss off GOP voters. (This is, after all, a guy who once paid for mailers touting the support of "Obama-Terry voters.") Despite facing a totally underfunded Some Dude in Dan Frei, and despite running TV ads in the race's closing weeks, Terry only prevailed by a narrow 53-47 margin. Indeed, Terry's primary performance keeps getting worse, and one day, he'll either lose or retire—or get beaten by a Democrat. That could even happen this year, though it would be a longshot. Terry has to get past Democratic state Sen. Brad Ashford, but Ashford hasn't raised much money and we rate the race as Likely Republican.

10:50 AM PT: OH-Gov: Hrm. Quinnipiac's last couple of Ohio polls placed GOP Gov. John Kasich in the low 40s, and in February, he sported just a 43-38 lead on Democrat Ed FitzGerald. But in their newest survey, Kasich's shot up to a 50-35 advantage on Fitz. Now, Kasich has done some television advertising (and so has the RGA) while FitzGerald has not yet gone on the airwaves. But not only did Kasich just triple the size of his lead here, his 15-point edge is the biggest he's ever seen in a public poll. So this is definitely one of those situations where you want to wait for confirmation for someone else.

11:07 AM PT: PA-Gov: After a virtual blackout that featured just one poll in the last six weeks, we finally have a couple of new surveys of the Democratic primary for governor in Pennsylvania. With less than a week to go before Election Day, Franklin & Marshall still sees businessman Tom Wolf in the lead with 43, but Rep. Allyson Schwartz has made up a lot of ground and is now at 26. At the end of March, Wolf had a 40-9 advantage, but time has almost run out for Schwartz.

Republican pollster Harper Polling, meanwhile, sees Wolf running away with the nomination. He's at the mid-century mark with a full 50, while Schwartz is tied with state Treasurer Rob McCord at 15. In February, Harper had Wolf at 40, Schwartz at 14, and McCord at 8—in other words, no sign of any movement for Schwartz. Regardless of whether she's advancing on the frontrunner, though, it would be a definite upset if Wolf lost at this point.

11:31 AM PT: AK Ballot: PPP's new Alaska poll also includes numbers on three big ballot measures that will go before voters this year, albeit at different times. In the August primary, voters say they want to repeal a controversial tax cut for energy companies by a 45-34 margin, similar to the 43-31 spread PPP found in February.

In November, meanwhile, there's huge support for increasing the minimum wage, with 67 percent in favor of the idea and just 27 percent opposed. However, when it comes to legalizing marijuana (which will also be on the fall ballot), Alaskans are very closely divided, with 48 percent in support and 45 against. One caveat, though, is that PPP is trying to capture two very different electorates in one poll (for the primary and the general), so it's possible some of these numbers are off.

11:59 AM PT: CA-31: It looks like the DCCC is still very concerned about a repeat of 2012's nightmare scenario, where two Republicans made it through the top-two primary in California's 31 District, a blue-tilting seat. In a new poll from Tulchin Research shared with Roll Call, Republican businessman Paul Chabot leads the field with 23 percent, while three Democrats are all bunched up behind him: Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar is at 15, while attorney Eloise Reyes and ex-Rep. Joe Baca are at 13.

Tulchin's memo expresses fear that a second Republican, former congressional aide Leslie Gooch, could slip into the second-place slot once she starts spending. However, right now, she's only at 6 percent, and there's a third Republican, consultant Ryan Downing, who's actually at 7. But Downing hasn't even filed any FEC reports, and there's actually a fourth Democrat in the race, San Bernardino School Board Trustee Danny Tillman, who is further splitting the left-leaning vote and currently taking 6 percent.

But the most important line in the memo appears to be this one: "Absent one of the leading Democrats experiencing a drop in support resulting from a negative attack, the November shutout scenario will continue to remain a real possibility .... Research has consistently found that Joe Baca is by far the candidate most vulnerable to negative attack among this primary field." That seems to be a signal/plea to Reyes that if she goes negative, she should aim her fire at Baca, whom Tulchin says it "extraordinarily unlikely to clear the primary," rather than Aguilar, the D-Trip's endorsed candidate.

In other words, if Reyes and Aguilar get into a fist-fight, then Baca will remain at his current level of support, thus keeping the Democratic vote badly divided and giving Gooch a chance to sneak through. But if Reyes (and hey, Aguilar, too) decide to whale on Baca, they can drive down his share of the vote and try to scoop some of it up for themselves. Of course, it may just be that the DCCC is actually worried about Baca making it past the primary, despite what they say, and want him taken down. Whatever the case, the situation is totally ridiculous, but then again, so is California's top-two primary system.

12:11 PM PT: GA-12: It's a couple of weeks old, but a poll from Landmark/Rosetta finds businessman Rick Allen with a wide lead in next week's GOP primary for the right to take on Rep. John Barrow. Allen takes 40 percent, while his nearest competitor, businessman Eugene Yu, is back at 15, and everyone else is in single digits. Allen would need to clear 50 percent, though, in order to avoid a runoff.

12:57 PM PT: NJ-03: GOP Rep. Jon Runyan, whose surprise retirement announcement opened up this seat late last fall, has endorsed former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur in the race to succeed him. MacArthur also earned the support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He faces 2013 Republican Senate nominee Steve Lonegan in next month's primary.

1:10 PM PT: Indeed, Aguilar's already been sending out mailers attacking Baca, but Baca actually moved up 5 points, according to Tulchin's trendlines.

1:38 PM PT: GA-Sen: And indeed, Handel's already pounced, saying that "'raising revenue' is code for raising taxes." It's not even code—it's a synonym!

1:47 PM PT: ID-Gov: Idaho Gov. Butch Otter faces a primary challenge next week from state Sen. Russ Fulcher, whose candidacy hasn't grabbed a lot of attention. There hasn't been any polling, and Fulcher remains a longshot, but he actually hasn't been outspent as dramatically as you'd expect. Between Jan. 1 and May 4, Otter spent about $510,000 on the race while Fulcher managed to spend $226,000. However, Otter had much more left over for the stretch run, $605,000 versus just $79,000 for Fulcher.

But we'll see how much conservative discontent Fulcher can tap into on Tuesday. He's slammed Otter for setting up a state-based health insurance exchange under Obamacare, and he also just earned the endorsement from GOP Rep. Raul Labrador, one of Congress' most notorious dystopian extremophiles. Even if Otter's successful, though, this is almost certain to be his last race, and Fulcher or Labrador (who considered a run earlier in the cycle) could have another opening four years from now.

2:00 PM PT: SD-Sen: A new SurveyUSA poll of South Dakota's Senate race finds GOP ex-Gov. Mike Rounds leading Democrat Rick Weiland 44-30, with independent Larry Pressler at 17. The poll apparently did not include conservative Gordon Howie, a Republican running as an independent. Rounds also has a big lead in the Republican primary, taking 45 percent versus 16 for state Rep. Stace Nelson and 11 for physician Annette Bosworth.

2:04 PM PT: AR-Gov: Democratic ex-Rep. Mike Ross may have received some unwelcome polling news lately, but that didn't stop him from crushing Republican ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson in fundraising last month. Ross raised $491,000, versus $240,000 for Hutchinson. They've both been spending heavily on TV (over half a million each), but Ross still has a lot more in the bank, almost $2 million compared to $904,000 for Hutch.

2:33 PM PT: CO-Sen: It's been a little while since we've seen a new Americans for Prosperity ad, but they're back with another spot in Colorado. They don't bother with any of their usual Affordable Care Act lies; instead, they praise GOP Rep. Cory Gardner for supporting the Keystone pipeline and opposing Obamacare. Bor-ring. Meanwhile, the American Energy Alliance attacks Democratic Sen. Mark Udall for opposing Keystone in their own ad.

2:41 PM PT: IA-Sen: Republican businessman Mark Jacobs takes direct aim at state Sen. Joni Ernst's last ad, where, clad in leather, she rode a motorcycle to a firing range to take shots at a target standing in for Obamacare. Jacobs' new spot features stills of Ernst in her biker getup, with a narrator saying that some people "do strange things to get elected." The ad then accuses her of voting to raise taxes and cites her frequent missed votes in the legislature this year, including some on elder abuse and human trafficking. "When it comes to protecting Iowa," the voiceover concludes, "she's firing blanks," as an unseen hand repeatedly clicks the trigger on an empty pistol. (Note: Blanks actually make noise and can be dangerous! This ad does not show blanks getting fired!)

2:50 PM PT: NH-02: Here's a more traditional Americans for Prosperity ad, this time attacking Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster over a quote she offered in response to problems with the ACA's rollout, saying "patience is a virtue." The ad then runs through a litany of alleged problems with Obamacare (most of them bogus, naturally), before berating Kuster again over her call for patience.

2:57 PM PT: PA-13: With just days to go before the Democratic primary, ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies has finally unleashed the Big Dog. Her new ad features clips of Bill Clinton praising her in a speech a month ago (but why did she wait so long to run this spot?). Clinton employs a little bit of praeterition, saying, "I'm not coming here saying vote for her because 20 years ago she saved the economy"—but I'll remind you about that anyway. He goes on to add that Margolies will "take initiative, she'll do things and stand up when she needs to stand up and cooperate when we need cooperation." There's no word on the size of the buy, though Margolies has been struggling to make ends meet so it may not be all that large.

3:18 PM PT (David Jarman): MS-Sen: The new ad from Chris McDaniel gives a little praise for his incumbent GOP primary rival, Thad Cochran, before proceeding to bury him with a litany of pork and pay raises: "Spend 41 years in Washington, and even good men can lose touch with their conservative roots," it starts out.

3:21 PM PT (David Jarman): PA-Gov: Rep. Allyson Schwartz's closing statement ad, with the Pennyslvania Democratic gubernatorial primary looming a week away, is a low-key, policy-driven number, talking about her plan to use drilling taxes to better pay for education.

3:27 PM PT (David Jarman): MT-Sen: John Walsh's new ad hits Steve Daines for overseeing outsourcing of manufacturing jobs when he was in the private sector. It also slips in an odd little mention that Daines voted twice to increase the debt limit (um, good?) ... though perhaps the intent there is, a la the Jon Tester campaign in '12, to sow doubts about Daines' conservative bona fides and try to drive hard-liners to the Libertarian candidate instead.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:00:18 AM PDT

  •  Newark Mayor Implications (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, bythesea, Taget, KingofSpades

    For those who missed it, Ras Baraka defeated Shavar Jeffries by a healthy margin in last night's Mayoral contest in Newark.  I wrote up a diary about the potential political fallout of Baraka's win.

    •  Wish I had paid more attention (0+ / 0-)

      After reading the post-morterm I would have certainly supported Jeffries.

      32/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:02:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, the Jeffries Councilman ticket (0+ / 0-)

        won a 5/9 council majority, so take that FWIW

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:29:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nope, at least Central was won by an independent (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          That is, independent of the Baraka or Jeffries slates - it was an entirely nonpartisan election, and as far as I know all the serious candidates would be registered Democrats.

          But Darren Sharif, the incumbent in the Central Ward council seat who either briefly ran for mayor or was talked up for the office decided to run for reelection and it worked out for him. (I'm personally a fan of his; progressive without some of the ties to the old Sharpe James machine that Baraka has. And if Baraka doesn't work out, he's well-positioned to run in four years.)

          "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

          by gabjoh on Wed May 14, 2014 at 11:30:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I mostly knew this race through TV and radio. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, ArkDem14, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      And thus I only heard Shavar Jeffries side.  Of course that was tilted by the fact the attacks on Ras Baraka for being a "career poliitican" "who raised taxes" made me think it was a Republican attack ad until the very end when they mentioned Jeffries.  Thus making me wonder far more about Jeffries than any ad actually paid for by Jeffries really should.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:59:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I tagged it so it's go under the DKE diaries tab. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ProudNewEnglander

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 02:01:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is an excellent ad (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:24:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Anyone know how this race is going? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Given how she and Aguilar have dominated the fundraising and advertising, and considering there are three Republicans running, I assume Gomez Reyes and Aguilar are likely to shut the GOP out in the top two.  It would set up an interesting general election.

      •  Then again (4+ / 0-)

        DCCC apparently polled and found this

        Chabot (R): 23%
        Aguilar (D): 15%
        Reyes (D): 13%
        Baca (D): 13%
        Downing (R): 7%
        Gooch (R): 5%
        Tillman (D): 6%

        I would take the results with a fairly large grain of salt, given how difficult it can be to poll top-two House elections, particularly in a very Hispanic district like this one.  Somehow I doubt Baca is doing that well, after running a non-campaign.

        •  so glad they ran 3 GOPers this time (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

          by lordpet8 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:12:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  CA31 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          They found Baca doing better in May than in April, which seems weird given that he isn't spending.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:19:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Who says he isn't spending? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

            He's got 40-foot billboards up alongside the freeways and signs everywhere! Maybe no television, but he's spending.

            Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

            by pucklady on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:33:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Don't underestimate Baca's residual support (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't see him getting into the top two, but if he's on the ballot he'll get a lot of votes even without running a campaign.  I'll bet his name rec is much higher than most of the candidates.  He's been in local/state/federal office in the area since 1979, was locally prominent as a "community relations rep" for GTE for 15 years before that, and got 44% of the vote in the general election in the adjacent district just last cycle.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:18:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov: EMILY's List promises go big (17+ / 0-)

    for Mary Burke.

    Emily’s List and its affiliated group, Women Vote!, spent more than $3 million in 2012 to help elect Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

    The group’s president, Stephanie Schriock, said Monday that the Wisconsin gubernatorial race is “absolutely a top priority.”

    “You will see a lot of us in the state,” Schriock said. In addition, she said, “You will see Women Vote! play, I believe, in a fairly significant way.”

    http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/...
  •  OH-Gov Poll (7+ / 0-)

    Quinnipiac

    OH-Gov
    Kasich 50%
    Fitzgerald 35%

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:25:07 AM PDT

  •  NE-Gov: Hassebrook (D) launched first tv ad last (9+ / 0-)

    night. He'll be facing Republican Pete Ricketts. While Ricketts is still probably heavily favored to win, I think he is also the weakest Republican and gives Chuck his best shot. Ricketts knew he is weak in rural nebraska (the only policy plan he released during the campaign was a farm plan), so I think it helps that our candidate has been with the Center for Rural Affairs for 30 years building businesses in those areas as well as repeatedly winning elections in a rural district, contrasted with Ricketts' Omaha billionaire, Chicago cubs owning, never had a job daddy didn't give him, just outright unlikeable attributes. But like I said, will still be tough and I think he may have improved as a candidate since his 2006 disaster.

    https://m.youtube.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:28:59 AM PDT

  •  Pres2016 - Hillary's health a legitimate topic (0+ / 0-)

    Karl Rove was way beyond the pale with his speculation about Hillary Clinton's health, but a Presidential candidate's (and VP's) health history is a legitimate matter for voters to consider.

    If a nominee has a history of heart attacks, had a normally fatal cancer that is now in remission, weighs or formally weighed 400 pounds (with the medically established associated health risks and even what that possibly says about issues of self control), spent years being tortured by an enemy military, has a history of uncontrolled seizures, or is up in age - I see nothing unreasonable with voters' wanting more information (possibly the entire medical file) before considering a vote for President.

    Same with income taxes.  If a candidate cannot disclose several years (5 years? 10 years?) of her or his complete federal, state and local tax returns, then the person should not run for President (or should not be surprised if many voters refuse to vote for an otherwise apparently qualified candidate whose tax returns cannot see the light of day (and bear public scrutiny).

    If a person wants to keep her or his medical history or tax returns private, the person should not run for such a high office.

    I am a big fan of Hillary's and hope she runs - but if she does run, her medical history will be a fair subject for voters' considerations.

  •  update on the Oregon state senate races: (5+ / 0-)

    ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:01:28 AM PDT

  •  PA-GOV: Keystone/F&M Poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA, DCCyclone

    A weird sample (530 RVs, this late?), so it depends how you slice it ...

    Self-reported likely voters (no leaners):
    Wolf 37
    Schwartz 20
    McCord 12
    McGinty 3
    Undecided 27

    With leaners
    Wolf 43
    Schwartz 26
    McCord 14
    McGinty 3
    Undecided 11

    If you look at "historically likely" or all RVs, Wolf's lead improves.... though among RVs, Wolf's numbers plateaued -- he was at 36% in Feb, and 33% in late March and now.  Hmm.

    Others can be less partial.

  •  PA-13: MM/WJC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    We all knew this ad was coming.

    In terms of TSOTB, I've seen the data, and basically Arkoosh has the most airtime booked this week, followed by Leach, with Boyle and Margolies essentially tied for the bottom (if you ad in the SuperPAC spending for Boyle).  Obvs, buys can expand based on what comes in.

  •  Two major GOP themes are present (14+ / 0-)

    in Josh Kraushaar's column today: Can Democrats Win When Obama's Not on the Ticket?

    1. Can the Obama coalition come together for a non-Obama candidate? I think this is a valid question. For Hillary Clinton, I think the answer is yes, and Kraushaar implicitly acknowledges this, by noting Dem might be reliant on "brand name" candidates like Clinton to drive up turnout.

    One thing the GOP is in denial about is the real possibility Hillary Clinton could expand on the Obama coalition, doing as well or almost as well among minorities and young voters as Obama, while doing better among women(a majority of the electorate), and even slightly better among older voters.

    Could the Obama coalition come together again for a white male candidate? Maybe. Bill Clinton, before he was a brand name, certainly did well among groups in the coalition. There are certainly some Dem candidates who are weaker than others, that is always going to be true of any party. I dont know if anyone is suggesting demographics alone is going to help a Dem win.

    2. Democrats lack diverse candidates. This seems to be a running theme in Kraushaar's writing. Certainly diversity is important, and I think we need more women and minority candidates at all levels of government.

    But I think Kraushaar is too focused on this. Policy is more important than diversity. The GOP has a problem with young voters, women, and minorities because of their policies, not because they lack diverse candidates.

    Jerry Brown, an old white guy, is popular in a very diverse state because minorities generally agree with his policies. All else being equal, an old white moderate male GOP candidate is going to do better statewide in CA than a young Hispanic candidate with right wing views.

    The same holds true on a national level. I doubt there are going to be many moderate or left leaning voters who say, "Never mind Rubio's social conservatism, climate change denialism and hawkish foreign policy, I'm going to vote for him because he is young and Hispanic."

    It's policy that matters more than anything. Over a year after the 2012 election loss and the RNC "autopsy" report, the GOP doesnt look like they are going to be changing their policies that much.

    •  I don't know what to think, jj32, that you... (9+ / 0-)

      ...took Josh Kraushaar seriously enough to consider his assertions on merits, instead of just seeing "Josh Kraushaar" in the byline and moving on to something else.  You are a more patient man than I and probably a better man than I.

      Regarding point one, it's a foregone conclusion everyone who voted twice for Obama will vote for a Democrat in 2016 without hesitation save for a very few stragglers who might've had very narrow reasons for voting for Obama that don't exist normally.  Obama voters voted for him twice and won.  Winning makes you want to keep playing.  So those voters will keep showing up.  There are couple simple principles in voting behavior that govern here:  (1) people who vote a couple times become chronic voters and keep voting; and (1) voting and winning makes you want to vote again, and voting twice and winning twice probably locks you in for life.

      Regarding point two, this is where Kraushaar just reveals himself to a typical idiot Republican.  They are almost all white people who don't relate to or understand peoples of color.  And they desperately grasp at straws, like Rubio or whoever or whatever, to delude themselves into thinking they can win votes that way.  Let them keep deluding themselves, it only benefits us.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:44:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ha, I think I was patient because (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        I've see this from other Republicans. And the point about the Obama coalition is valid, but as I said, I think the GOP needs to consider the possibility that Clinton can definitely put that coalition together and maybe even build on it.

      •  To a degree yes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I think a lot depends on where the GOP stands on the issues. I have quite a few friends who consider themselves to be "Rockefeller Republicans" that voted for Obama twice more out out of disgust with GOP social policies than anything else.

        "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

        by lordpet8 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:25:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  GOP stands are a foregone conclusion (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The Republican Party is the conservative party, period.  One can defect on a very few cherry-picked issues without pissing off most fellow Republicans, but one cannot defect enough to be both a Rockefeller Republican and a Republican in Good Standing in the view of most Republicans.  In other words, there is no room anymore for people like Gerald Ford or the pre-Reagan version of George H.W. Bush.

          Those friends of yours who are Republicans for Obama come from the pool of soft Republicans who defect routinely.  Obama's GOP support was as low as any Democrat ever gets.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:26:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Look at the Democratic ticket in California (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Two Asian candidates, a Hispanic candidate, and Harris who is black and south Asian. I did the math on this one before for a comment; the Republican Congressional Caucus is something like 91% white male, compared to Democrats who are only 48% percent white male and becoming more representative of the population with each election. The senate is slightly less glaring, because Republicans tend to leap frog minority candidates into powerful positions, though only if the individuals in question are extremely conservative. The place to look is the House and State Legislatures, which consist of nearly all-white Republican delegations.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:29:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  the first point has always been recycled (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm sure GOP hopefuls were saying the same thing approaching the 1948 election.   Can the FDR/New Deal coalition come together for a non-FDR candidate?

      If they don't buy into this then the Electoral Map is screwed for them even before the election starts.

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

      by lordpet8 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:21:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SD-Poll (6+ / 0-)

    SurveyUSA/KSTP

    Senate

    Rounds (R) 44
    Weiland (D) 30
    Pressler (I) 17

    http://www.ksfy.com/...

    Governor

    Daugaard (R) 57
    Lowe (D) 21%
    Myers (I) 11%

    Daugaard (R) 56%
    Wismer (D) 23%
    Myers (I) 13%

    http://www.ksfy.com/...

    Looks like Rounds is comfortably ahead with Pressler taking from both equally at the moment.

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:52:27 AM PDT

    •  Still Surprising Pressler Is Polling This Well.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ....you gotta figure it's mostly Republicans who don't know he's become an Obama supporter.

      •  The article says he is hurting Weiland more (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, wadingo, MichaelNY

        than any GOP candidate, taking 17% of Dems. So it might be the opposite reason.

        •  Hmmm....Seems Counterintuitive.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Unless left-leaning South Dakota voters are aware that former Republican Senator Pressler has become an Obama supporter.  I wouldn't think his shifting allegiances would have been common knowledge to the point that Pressler would be drawing from Weiland.

          •  It might have gotten some attention there (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mark27, wadingo, jncca, MichaelNY

            GOP former senator endorses Obama.

            It's certainly the main reason Pressler has been in the news the last few years.

          •  the numbers that we would expect (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            about this senate races, are just what we see for the gubernatorial race.

            in fact we see three things in this senate poll.

            - Rounds weaker than expected.
            - Weiland stronger than expected.
            - Pressler, a former senator about as expected.

            Pressler can not be considered a surprise. I'm more surprised about Weiland being able to be 2nd in the race between two of the most important politicians from the state in the last years.

            •  You Don't Find Pressler's Support Among Democrats, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              .....to the point of drawing more from Weiland than Rounds, to be surprising?  I sure do.

              •  in fact I see Pressler taking more from Rounds (R) (0+ / 0-)

                Thinking about it, I'm surprised a little surprised about Weiland keeping as high support, but not with Rounds losing support. I see not rare that the people of South Dakota see Pressler as a Republican.

                Pressler is the kind of candidate that can take from both sides, when the Democratic side has not a strong candidate. Pressler always would be able to take a strong part of the Republican vote, and even, without M Rounds surely he would be competitive in the Republican primary.

                •  I wonder, off hand (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jj32, Trosk, MichaelNY

                  Whether things might progress to where Weiland pulls out in favor of Pressler? I realize he's well ahead of Pressler and it sounds silly, but it may be that Pressler with a little institutional money can actually beat Rounds, while Weiland can't.

                  •  Pressler (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Pressler has gone on record in opposition to the ACA.  He supports raising the minimum wage to $9.50.  He isn't doing a lot to gain Weiland's support by taking these positions.  

                    He is not for the repeal of the ACA, but he said he would have voted No.  He's also making NSA reform a major component of his platform, I just don't see serious NSA reform coming to the table.  It may sway some votes in his direction, not really sure.  

                    I think Pressler would be to the right of Angus King certainly.  If Mark Kirk cared about re-election, Pressler would probably be to the right of Kirk on many issues as well.  Just a hunch, but Kirk is another subject for another day.  

                    IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                    by BoswellSupporter on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:44:54 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Pretty good summary (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BoswellSupporter, MichaelNY

                      Of why Pressler can win while Weiland cannot, in SD.

                    •  So Pressler.. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Would he have opposed the ACA from the left or the right? I thought I heard him quoted as supporting single payer.

                      Pressler would be the oddest duck in the Senate if he actually made it. And given his current level of support, if Weiland dropped out (and we assume all of Weiland supporters went to Pressler), he'd actually be leading Rounds.

                      Jesus, Weiland, just give it up, you'll never be a senator.

                      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

                      by Le Champignon on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:05:52 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  from his perspective (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        BoswellSupporter, MichaelNY, gabjoh

                        Pressler should give up. Pressler has a lot less support, and was tossed out of office when he had been a senator.

                        ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

                        by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:47:28 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Good questions (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        My guess is slightly from the right, but I think he would take any reform process seriously.  

                        Not the best format ever, but it gives you a brief idea of what he is interested in.  He's for an $8.50 minimum wage, I had that wrong.  There aren't a whole lot of articles out there on his policy positions, he tried to get too much free press from American Hustle IMO.  I don't blame for trying, but I have my doubts that gave him the bump that he needs.

                        http://rapidcityjournal.com/...

                        IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                        by BoswellSupporter on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:16:49 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  Dunno about Kirk (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BoswellSupporter

                      He was more moderate when he was a Representative and is now probably voting his actual positions.

                      It sounds like Pressler would be a damn sight better than any Republican Senator, and certainly better than a Senator Rounds would be. That's the alternative. Weiland has very little chance of victory.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:26:56 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Kirk/Pressler (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Kirk may be voting his actual positions now, but in my view he shouldn't be doing that.  He should keep a similar voting record to the one he had in the house.  You've still got enough country club Republicans in his district for the GOP to win in a wave election, but I don't think Kirk could win statewide if he keeps voting the way he has.  That said, I don't think he cares about his re-election and may not run again.

                        I'll be perfectly honest as well, I've been disappointed by his voting record and expected better from him.   Is that naive of me?  Yes, but I expect Mark Pryor to vote the interests of Arkansas for example and thus I expected Kirk to vote like a resident of the state of Illinois.  

                        I agree 100% on the Pressler/Weiland race.  Public financing of elections is not a factor in this race so I wish Pressler would get on the stick, but I guess he assumes to have universal name id and thus he can take a principled stance against "big money?"  

                        IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                        by BoswellSupporter on Thu May 15, 2014 at 01:53:30 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

        •  Wonder why Rounds is so weak (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, itskevin, gabjoh, MichaelNY

          He should be dominating here, and my last explanation was that Pressler is temporarily taking a bunch of his voters. But apparently not true.

          I wonder if this might be a sleeper. It would take something bad and currently unknown about Rounds to suddenly hit the conversation in October.

          •  Definitely Worth An Infusion of DSCC Cash..... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, gabjoh, MichaelNY

            ....into a state as cheap as South Dakota.  As soon as Pressler announced her was running, I had a feeling this race could become volatile and unpredictable.  Rounds still seems likely to win, but I see no downside in keeping this race in the target zone until conditions change.

            •  They didn't poll (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              the right-wing tea party candidate running as an independent either.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:30:53 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, I think that's the bigger story (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, MichaelNY

            I always thought this only maybe become competitive if Rounds lost the primary.

            But maybe, somehow the same could happen if Rounds gets involved in some controversy.

          •  Well I heard that the GOP base (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ins't all that in love with him and feel they could do better with a more conservative candidate.

            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

            by lordpet8 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:28:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Like say an indictment after the primary? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            You know Brendan Johnson is the US Attorney for SD?  I hope at minimum for some interestingly timed investigation announcements.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:30:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  GA-Sen: Perdue might have just cost himself the (21+ / 0-)

    nomination--raising taxes in a huge no-no. I'm getting a bit giddy now!

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

  •  NC 2016 PPP (6+ / 0-)

    She holds modest leads over the top potential Republican candidates in the state- 45/44 over Rand Paul, 45/42 over Jeb Bush, 44/40 over Chris Christie, and 47/43 over Mike Huckabee.

    The Republican primary field is muddled as it is most everywhere in the country at this point- Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee lead with 17%, followed by Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Rand Paul at 12%, Paul Ryan at 8%, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker at 5%, and Bobby Jindal at 2%.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:56:52 AM PDT

    •  That's a pretty tight spread (0+ / 0-)

      compared to what Clinton's early spreads in swing states have typically looked like.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:34:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  NC and CO will probably be her weakest swing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        states.  Bill Clinton narrowly won Colorado and never won North Carolina, North Carolina also has a huge percent of our vote coming from African-Americans, and both are full of the "creative class" voters who favored Obama over Hillary in the primary.  I'm only going to worry if I see her tied in polls in Florida and Ohio.  We only need one.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:09:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We don't need either (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf

          assuming our 2016 nominee just holds Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.  I know a lot of people think Hillary is uniquely weak in Colorado, but the state has changed quite a bit.  I don't see Republicans getting it back unless they're already winning by a couple points nationally.

          Virginia is another one where I'd be astonished if the GOP took it nationally unless they were already winning the popular vote.

      •  I think we're seeing.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        exactly what I suspected we'd see: a resurgence of the Clinton coalition, at least in the polls. That's why states like AR and KY appear reasonably competitive, but swing states in the Obama era (that Monsieur Clinton didn't win) remain swing states, even seeing a small drop in support.

        2016's going to be an interesting year. I expect a lot of pundits to have egg on their face at exactly which states Clinton will win. I fully expect her to win MO and have a strong showing in KY, while losing (or coming close to losing) both CO and NC (for instance).

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:17:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA Gov primary Harper (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sulthernao, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    Wolf 50
    Schwartz 15
    McCord 15

    http://www.harperpolling.com/...

    I'd hazard a guess that it's about as close to the mark as its general election polling.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:55:47 AM PDT

  •  NYC-Mayor (5+ / 0-)

    Well that's official. Bill de Blasio is the 2nd coming of David Dinkins.

    Jeb Bush, a possible Republican presidential candidate, offered to help run a campaign to oust the new mayor in 2017. Bill O’Reilly, the Fox News titan, said he wanted “to beat him up.”

    And at a black-tie dinner a few nights ago, a billionaire donor to the Republican Party warned that under his stewardship, New York City risked becoming the “New Havana.”

    National Republicans, alarmed by the rising influence of activist liberals in government and eager to paint the Democratic Party as captive to its left wing, seem to have settled on an unlikely new nemesis: Bill de Blasio.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:13:04 AM PDT

  •  WV House of Delegates (19+ / 0-)

    Looks like an incumbent GOP representative got beaten in the primary by a high schooler, who will be 18 by election day.

    Any chance this can flip?  WV Dems need all the help they can get to hold the chamber this fall.  The seat seems to be near Martinsburg which is in the far eastern part of the state, near Frederick, Maryland.  It's a region that has been fairly GOP-leaning downballot compared to the rest of the state, but Obama did comparatively better there as there are plenty of new Maryland transplants (to say nothing of how badly the rest of the state is trending red).

  •  VA-07: Cantor's GOP challenger gaining traction? (5+ / 0-)

    link.

    This week, Cantor’s opponent in the June 10 primary — a tea party activist named David Brat — is gaining national attention as a potential threat to Cantor’s hold on his solidly Republican, suburban Richmond district. Brat has won support from some big-name conservatives and has tapped into discontent across Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. On Wednesday, Brat planned to travel to Washington to meet with leading conservative agitators, a sign that his effort is starting to be taken seriously at the national level.
    Doubt he wins but it will be interesting to see how well Brat does.
  •  OR-Sen: Salem Statesman Journal endorsed Conger (9+ / 0-)
    In contrast, Wehby displayed little depth in discussing issues.

    That came as a surprise, because she has attracted significant financial support. She has an excellent professional resume as the director of pediatric neurosurgery at Randall Children’s Hospital in Portland. She has been president of the Oregon Medical Association and the Portland Medical Society, and a board member for the Ronald McDonald House Charities and the American Association of Neurological Surgeons.

    One would have expected that she would have spent the past several months immersing herself in Oregon and federal issues, prepping to be a potential senator.

    same critique as the Willamette Week, an alternative weekly, but the SJ is a right-leaning paper.

    ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 11:18:21 AM PDT

    •  It'd be great if she lost the primary (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, sulthernao, MichaelNY

      Then Merkley would have an easier time, since Conger is too conservative to get elected statewide. Merkley would really dominate Multnomah, Lane and Washington counties, and like win Clackamas as well.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:41:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  he's probably going to take Clackamas either (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        way, but I think he'd win by 10 there against Conger.

        ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:58:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama 2008 type margins (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, sulthernao, MichaelNY

          For the freshman Senator.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:05:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I honestly have him winning 57-43 against (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sulthernao, MichaelNY

            Conger. I think if he wins the primary national Republicans will give up on the race and Conger won't be able to compete with Merkley's millions.

            ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

            by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:19:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Enough to perhaps ensure (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Olsen is reelected, and Democrats defeat Starr and Close for a solid 18-12 majority in the state senate.

              I still find it ironic that Cover Oregon has been such an unmitigated disaster. Considering that Kitzhaber was pretty clear that the reason he was running in 2010 was because he was a doctor and had experience in health care policy.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:09:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Joke of the day (5+ / 0-)

    Link.

    A Bush administration alumnus emails: “Karl accomplished exactly what he wanted to: … Give Hillary more reasons to stay out of the race.

    Yeah, uh huh. Good luck with that. If anything, it seems like this would give Clinton more reason to run.

    I imagine she will have to release medical records, consistent with what other candidates have had to do.

    If she runs a strong, energetic campaign, then I think any mention of age or health by the GOP has a chance at seriously backfiring.

    Also, I can see this Rove comment sort of being to Hillary what the birther stuff was to Obama. Obama could also come up with some clever line about the birthers/Trump, a nice way to point out the crazies in the GOP.

    I imagine you will see something from Hillary like that at her next speech. Bill Clinton already joked about it today.

  •  AK 2016 PPP (9+ / 0-)

    Palin is actually so weak that she would trail Hillary Clinton 44/41 in a hypothetical contest, even as the rest of the Republican field would lead Clinton. Mike Huckabee has a 43/42 advantage over her, Chris Christie is up 44/41, Rand Paul is up 46/40, and Jeb Bush is up 47/41.

    Alaska is even more fragmented than most states when it comes to who Republicans want as their Presidential candidate. Ted Cruz gets 15%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie 14%, Palin 12%, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul 11%, Scott Walker and Paul Ryan 4%, and Marco Rubio 3%.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed May 14, 2014 at 11:29:10 AM PDT

    •  LOL at Huckabee (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      only outrunning Palin (who is miserably unpopular in her home state) by 4 points.  I don't think Huckabee's heavy SoCon image really fits a state like Arkansas.

      Anyway, if the state is willing to give Clinton a try, I hope that's good news for them being willing to send Begich back for another six years.  Sometimes we forget how red the state got for a bit (Bush beat Kerry 61-36, and Dole beat Clinton 51-33).  It had a history of supporting Democrats in decades past, and now it seems to be getting competitive again.  Obama only losing 41-55 was kind of incredible, and I suspect he could have kept it to a single digit loss in 2008 without Palin's presence on the ticket.

  •  PPP Poll: 4% of Alaskans support rejoining Russia (8+ / 0-)
  •  Murkowski's 2016 numbers horrible among Rs (14+ / 0-)

    and conservatives. It's looking like she's going to have a very tough time at renomination so long as someone serious (one of the Dans Sullivan) steps up. Shes at 34/56 among Rs, 42/49 among somewhat conservatives, and an atrocious 19/64 among very conservatives.

    Meanwhile her overall approval rating is 44/41 thanks to stellar crossover support among Democrats, liberals, and moderates.

    •  I've never understood why so many Dems/libs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      ...strongly support conservative Republicans who give off the appearance of being moderate, such as Lisa Murkowski.

      About the only thing that mystifies me even more is liberals (usually) being the strongest backers of moderate Democrats.

      •  I like Murkowski (9+ / 0-)

        She should really become an independent if she wants to get re-elected, though, looking at these numbers.  But I would vote for her either way, if I lived in Alaska.

        •  I don't know if I'd vote for her (0+ / 0-)

          She's still pretty conservative, but I do like how much independence she's been showing. I wonder if it's conceivable that she'd run as a straight-up independent next time and possibly end up caucusing with the Democrats. I doubt it, but I think if she does run as a straight-up independent, her voting would probably become even more independent of the Republican leadership.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:46:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Because she voted for Obama's (11+ / 0-)

        proposals during the lame duck session following 2010 and has been voting for most of his judicial appointments.

        She stands out among the growing conservative GOP Senate caucus. She seems down right liberal compared to Miller (who defeated her in the 2010 primary).

        And this is Alaska we're talking about not California, you won't be getting any Barbara Boxers from this state anytime soon.

        "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

        by lordpet8 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:04:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The part about liberals being strongest backers... (0+ / 0-)

          ...of moderate Dems was not an Alaska-specific statement but a statement about national politics in general. I've never once seen a moderate/establishment Dem have higher approvals among self-identified moderates than among self-identified liberals. You'd think that there would be a sizable chunk of self-identified liberals who would disapprove of moderate Dems from the left, but that's almost never the case.

          •  Realism? (15+ / 0-)

            My suspicion is that the left wing of the Democratic party just isn't as big on purity concerns as the right wing of the Republican party. I think our expectations get muted more, so that even if nearly all the Senators running for re-election this year are big KXL supporters, I still support them tremendously- not just as the 50+1 for the Senate itself, but as strikingly liberal relative to their constituencies. Beigch, Landrieu and Walsh especially fit this category to me.

            •  Even in solidly-blue constituencies... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              ...I've never seen a sizable chunk of self-identified liberals disapprove of an obviously moderate/establishment Democrat (such as Dianne Feinstein, Dick Durbin, etc.).

              Of course, I've noticed that you almost never hear bashing of the "Democratic establishment" (except from people like me) on our side of the ideological spectrum, but Republicans have high-profile politicians (Ted Cruz, etc.) who constantly bash the Republican establishment.

            •  Its harder to be generous when your larger (7+ / 0-)

              The far-left in America learned the hard-way in the 1970s and 80s that they are a minority, not just of the country, but of the party as well. The unhappiness of the African American community during the 1970s and 80s disguised that for a while, but since the early 1990s they have been a pro-establishment block(see their support of Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004, late swing to Obama after he won Iowa) and the actual ideological left has been left with maybe 15% of the electorate. They recognize they cannot win without allies.

              Conservatives have a harder challenge because there are actually a lot more of them than there are actual ideological Leftists. The Conservative movement actually commands 35-40% of the electorate which means they not only represent an overwhelming majority of their party, but are preciously close to being able to win in good years on there own. That makes it much harder to convince them not just to share power, but to actually defer policy-wise to moderate who they outnumber within the GOP 4-1 or more.

              •  Your percentages demand explanation (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, BenjaminDisraeli, gabjoh

                If you're going to say conservatives command 35-40%, that's consistent with a fair amount of polling, but then you have to use the same polling and see that liberals are really 20-25%, not 15%.  If you're limiting the "left" in your comment to something less, then it demands further defining, and then an apples-to-apples comparison with some comparable faction of voters on the right who are clearly waaaaaay below 40%.

                But your overall point is well taken, yes it's harder for conservatives to compromise because they realize they are many.  The problem further is that they think they are a majority, and they are actually not remotely close to that.

                46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:35:01 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The activist left, I think (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat

                  Not just the ideological left -- higher taxes for the rich, stronger environmental protections, strong support for equality, pro-choice, etc. -- but the type of left-wingers we make fun of when they stumble into a DKE open thread from the main page and start bragging about how they refused to donate to President Obama's reelection because of his drone policy, complaining about what a DINO Sen. Mark Udall is, or championing some little-known progressive activist in an unwinnable House district.

                  That type of (IMO obnoxious) liberal is a far better analog to the breed of conservative that has become prevalent in the Republican Party -- anti-establishment, proudly radical, not at all pragmatic, driven nearly as much by factionalism as by ideology (JPF/PFoJ-style), unwilling to compromise, and ideologically entrenched -- than the average Joe Lefty.

                  Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:32:34 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Exactly what I was referring to (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                    I was not so much referring to people who hold liberal positions as to people who exist within an ideological echo chamber. Kind of the people who come onto here and try to sell DKE on John Boehner losing reelection. Sort of the left-wing version of people on the Right who used to get scammed every six years by unscrupulous direct mail firms raising money to defeat Barney Frank.

                    Lot's of parts of the Democratic coalition are more invested in winning, if only to stop the GOP, than they are in exactly how to win - African Americans, Immigrants, Feminists, the LGBT Community, Unions - and therefore they will strategically vote for the most liberal candidate who can clearly win. Hence why Hillary polled well with African Americans until after Obama proved he could win by taking lily-white Iowa.

                    Republicans don't have that as much, because whereas the activist left really only controls a few cities, the activist Right runs whole states and regions. Conservative Activist may be willing to concede they need moderates to run in New England; they are not willing to run them nationally, and they see moderate warnings of electoral defeats as a form of blackmail; nominate us or we'll defect.

          •  unlike Republicans, we're willing to compromise. (6+ / 0-)

            ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

            by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 02:35:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Lieberman 2.0 (3+ / 0-)

      If she runs again in the GOP primary she's toast.  Yet I don't think a total party switch is in the cards for her either.  Her best bet is simply running as an independent, or (more likely) retiring, as Lieberman did.

      Will depend on what Democrats do in 2016.  If nobody serious steps up, she very likely tries to replicate 2010.

      •  Yeah, it's a big question mark. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Adam B, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        A party switch would be awesome, but not likely.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:27:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I bet she'd win as an indy (6+ / 0-)

        True indies and a lot of Dems might flock to her.  After all, she did it as a write-in!  And McAdams was a really likeable guy with a good bio ad, yes he was recruited as a sacrificial lamb, but in conservative Alaska was far better than one should expect for scandal/wave/GOP primary insurance.

        If she does run as an indy and the GOP wants to put up a real fight, then Democrats should be prepared with their best possible candidate.  No runoffs in Alaska, if they can find Tony Knowles-type (how about Knowles himself for yet another try???!!!) who can get into the mid-30s then it's doable.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:13:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  ALG's stops today: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, sulthernao, MichaelNY

    https://twitter.com/...
    It has the secondary intended effect of making local headlines: http://www.dscc.org/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:24:39 PM PDT

  •  KY-Sen: profile on Mitch's wife (5+ / 0-)

    Elaine Chao profiled here:  http://www.nytimes.com/...

    For the record, I have a couple separate avenues of professional connections to people who have known Elaine Chao personally in different jobs.

    And my takeaway has been that the less charitable claims in the linked story are true.  Yes she has a "short fuse" and frankly comes off as either bipolar or narcissistic or both.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:18:06 PM PDT

    •  I don't know whether Chao will help McConnell (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'd expect the old Demosaurs who have voted Republican federally to also be quite xenophobic. Chao doesn't seem to have any connection to Kentucky aside from her husband, anyway, so that might turn off less provincial voters, too.

      •  They've been married for a while (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, benamery21, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        and she doesn't do much for him outside Louisville.  Once, she tried stumping for her husband in Muhlenberg County, but was booed when she pronounced it "Mull-en-berg."

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 02:36:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Baca has spent A LOT on signs and billboards (5+ / 0-)

    And he's changed his angle from all the years previous.

    He used to simply say "Working Joe Baca" with a gear in place of the O in Joe. The emphasis is that he's a working man and will work for you. Now, his signs have a full-body portrait of him with arms folded looking grim. "Veteran JOe Baca" (Still the gear in the O)

    He must have an insane war chest based in the amount of expensive looking signage I'm seeing for him.

    I also see ELOISE signs. That's all it says. "ELOISE".

    I also see a blanket of Gooch signs, vastly outnumbering any Chabot signs.

    Yeah, signs don't vote. But signs do give a voter ideas that the person on the sign is a legitimate candidate. I think that is why you are seeing movement in Baca and Gooch numbers.

    My heart says vote ELOISE. But I voted my heart last time (Kim) and got Gary Miller. I'll go for Aguilar or "ELOISE", depending on who is leading in the polls then.

    NO MORE BACAS!!!!

    Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

    by pucklady on Wed May 14, 2014 at 01:31:46 PM PDT

  •  CA-24: Inspired example of ratfucking (6+ / 0-)

    Commercial starts out voice over saying "the choice is clear" this election.  It then cuts to a flattering picture of Chris Mitchum, with the words "Chris Mithcum - Tea Party Republican"...

    At this point I'm thinking, "hmmm, surprised Mitchum is advertising and with a nice ad too"....

    But then it cuts to a picture of Lois Capps that is captioned "Lois Capps - Bi-partisan leader".  

    So I realize it is a Capps commercial.  But during the commercial we cut back to flattering shots of Mitchum a couple more times, with the words "tea party" used again.

    This is interesting because Capps wants to run against Mitchum, who she would beat easily.  

    There are four other Republicans running, including Dale Francisco.  Francisco was the top vote getter in the Santa Barbara (D+22) city council election.  

    Capps does not want to run against Francisco, so she is promoting Mitchum in her commercials, while at the same time obviously also promoting herself.  She is also using her own money to help Mitchum which also helps her a lot.

    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

    by tommypaine on Wed May 14, 2014 at 02:09:52 PM PDT

  •  PA-8: Potentially Meaningful Endorsement (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    The GOV:

    In an email to her supporters, Naughton revealed that she has received the backing of former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.

    “The Democratic primary for Congress in the 8th District has two excellent candidates,” Rendell writes. “However, I believe that Shaughnessy Naughton is the most qualified candidate and has the best chance to unseat Republican Mike Fitzpatrick in the fall.”

    We'll see what this leads to over the final five days.  In other news, they've extended the Strouse parental donor-swap story to Day Two:
    “There’s a lot of unanswered questions here and I think we deserve answers,” Naughton said Wednesday morning in a conference call with reporters. “At best this is a bizarre scheme. At worst it was a coordinated effort to circumvent campaign finance limits – that should be troubling.”

    Naughton, running against Strouse in a primary for a Bucks County-based seat, arranged the call in response to an Inquirer story Monday that showed that Strouse’s parents, after giving the maximum allowed to their son, then sent donations to eight other Democratic House candidates in states such as California, Colorado, Illinois and Florida.

    In four instances, the parents of those candidates sent almost identical amounts to Strouse's campaign, usually days before or after the Strouse parents’ contributions. In every case, the parents had already given the maximum to their son or daughter.

    ... Two campaign finance experts contacted by the Inquirer have said the donations appear legal, and that even if there was an agreement among the parents, they would still be allowed.

    A former Federal Election Commission general counsel, however, said the contributions might amount to an “end run” around campaign finance limits and could be illegal if they were coordinated. A fourth campaign finance lawyer said the donation could be “problematic” if there was an express agreement to trade donations, though most civil and criminal prosecutions for campaign donations involve people donating someone else’s money in their own names.

  •  Love the headline here for CO-Gov (6+ / 0-)

    Despite GOP fears, Tancredo soldiers on

    Some of the same people who want to recast the Grand Old Party as the Great Opportunity Party — in an effort to attract minorities and young voters — believe Tancredo spells disaster in a year that is supposed to be rough for Democrats. For weeks, behind-the-scene movers and shakers in the Republican Party have tried to talk Tancredo into dropping out of the June 24 gubernatorial primary.

    They haven't gotten anywhere.

    And why would they?  He's the top fundraiser, been in the race the longest, has great name recognition, and is favored to win the primary.  Gessler should be the one they're trying to force out, to get his votes to go to Beauprez instead.

    Instead the GOP establishment seems to think Gessler is going to somehow squeeze past both of them despite raising no money...

    •  I say Beauprez and Tanc are neck-and-neck. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:28:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If none of them dominate the spending (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        which I don't think they are in any position to do, having barely any cash on hand, I think their profiles will be the main factor.  All four GOP candidates have a base in the Denver metro area.  Beauprez represented suburbs to the east and west (the old earmuffs district), Tancredo represented areas south of Denver, Kopp was a state senator from west of Denver, and as far as I can tell Gessler is just from Denver.  So with all of them fighting over the same small slice of GOP primary votes in the Denver metro, the rest of the state will be more significant.

        I don't see Kopp being a factor just because nobody knows him and he's the most broke candidate, despite outpacing Gessler at the state convention.  Gessler is the 2nd worst fundraiser and has no chance, despite national Republicans seeming to like him.  So it's between Tancredo and Beauprez to compete for Republicans in El Paso County, Grand Junction, and all the other rural areas.  I think Tancredo's extreme conservatism (and name recognition) should allow him to easily dominate around the rest of the state outside Denver.

    •  Also, Tancredo thinks the RGA may go after him (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      with a 527 group: http://coloradopols.com/...

      Why are they so fixated on Beauprez?  He's far from a prize pig with his wishy-washyness, his Islamophobia, and other crazy stuff like birtherism.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:44:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because Tancredo would embarrass the party (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, wadingo

        Maybe they want to reduce any coattails a massive Hickenlooper win would bring. What you call "crazy stuff" from Beauprez is just mainstream Republican orthodoxy nowadays.

        •  How's Beauprez talking about "creeping" Sharia law (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          not roughly as bad as Tancredo's "get out, the country's full" schtick?

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:57:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nuking Mecca and ending all immigration (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            is more extreme than birtherism and Sharia law discussion.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:14:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Discussion? He fed the conspiracy theory (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, MichaelNY

              that our secular legal authority was adopting Sharia Law.  He didn't discuss it, he just stated it in agreement with the people present.

              Also, I didn't know Tancredo said that about Mecca.

              Birtherism is more out of the mainstream among Republicans than nativism.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:29:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Beauprez is the same disaster as Tancredo (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The stuff that's come out about Beauprez's ramblings is just as toxic as Tancredo's verbal diarrhea.

      Plus, Beauprez got crushed in CO-Gov in 2006.  He was a rising star who imploded, same as Mark Kennedy in MN-Sen.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:21:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama approval ticking up (4+ / 0-)

    So today we have four separate polls on Obama's approval rating. (numbers are approve/disapprove)

    Fox News: 44/49

    Gallup: 45-49

    Rasmussen: 50/48

    Economist/YouGov: 45/53

    So I think we can reasonably say that Obama has ticked up to ~45% approval, which is excellent for a second term incumbent president. It'd be nice if he weren't underwater, but I'll take 45%.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Wed May 14, 2014 at 03:45:42 PM PDT

    •  Excellent? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Better than Bush.
      Worse than Clinton.
      Worse than Reagan.
      Nixon had Watergate by this point so I'm ignoring him although he hadn't resigned yet.
      Worse than Eisenhower.
      (I believe) better than Truman.
      Worse than FDR if we're going back that far.

      So he'd rank in the middle or slightly below average depending if we exclude Nixon (Johnson didn't quite last this long in office).

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:16:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  YouGov is especially stingy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold

      They rarely if ever had Obama as high as 45% through 2012!  I distrusted them for that reason, they were a chronic outlier.

      Rasmussen has becoming ridiculous this year on the positive side, which is a laughable irony given their history.  They've had Obama at largely break-even all year, very often at or over 50%.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:13:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MT-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    If Walsh wants to run to Daines' right on raising the debt ceiling, that's fine with me. I mean, it's dumb substantively, but politically it's kind of a neat little move, and it wouldn't mean anything at all to actually raising the limit (the problem is Repubs filibustering, not a stray Dem voting no).

  •  WV-02 (4+ / 0-)

    I feel surprisingly good about this race. The carpetbagging claims are likely to be very effective against Mooney - especially in West Virginia, a state that seems not to care for outsiders. I'm reminded of the senate race in 2010, where one of the attacks against John Raese was that his wife was not a registered voter in WV. Nick Casey is a known quantity there as a former state party chair, and appears to me to be running a solid campaign. It will be interesting to see how many of the 64% of R primary voters who didn't vote for Mooney in the primary won't be able to stomach voting for him in the general either.

    WV as a whole will be one of the states I follow very closely as we get closer to election day. We have decently competitive races in all three House districts as well as the senate race, and the House of Delegates is up for grabs there too. Obama not being on the ballot can only help Dems there, so we should get a much clearer picture of how far we have really fallen there.

    26, male, Dem, born and raised in MO-08, currently living in MO-04.

    by ModernDayWarrior on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:03:20 PM PDT

    •  Decently competitive? (0+ / 0-)

      I thought WV-01 was deemed pretty much out of reach, considering McKinley buried Sue Thorn by 24% last cycle.

      Agreed on WV-02 being a great pickup opportunity for us.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:19:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  WV2 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I have it at tossup now. Mooney should do well in the eastern panhandle but he's going to have a hard time in the rest of the district assuming Casey runs from the Manchin playbook.

      I think people underestimate how generically competitive WV is for carbon Dems. The last House election with no incumbent in the general was in 2010 in WV1. McKinley is a far better fit for WV than Mooney can every hope to be, and 2010 was as good as it gets for the GOP. McKinley beat Oliverio by less than 1 percentage point.

      I think the way to view any federal race in WV is that Obama's 2012 result is the Dem floor and Manchin's 2012 result is the Dem ceiling.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:34:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

    Walsh is by far the worst Democrat running for Senate in a marquee race.  He's hardly even running as a Democrat, and I say this as someone who wholeheartedly embraces a very large-tent party, but I'm not sure I could vote for him after attacking Daines for not allowing our country to default.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:12:02 PM PDT

  •  NH-Sen: Wow, f*** Scotty Brown! (4+ / 0-)

    He's gone from being an irritant to being a prick.  He called GOP Senators to sabotage an energy efficiency bill brought to the floor by Shaheen and Portman: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown called Senate Republican leadership to urge them to stop a bipartisan energy efficiency bill, so as not to give Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), the bill's Democratic sponsor and his Democratic opponent, something to run on.
    spokeswoman for Brown, who did not return HuffPost's request for comment, did not deny the report in a statement to Politico. "Scott Brown was concerned that Senator Shaheen was refusing to allow a vote on the Keystone pipeline, a commonsense and bipartisan project that would immediately create thousands of jobs and lessen our dependence on foreign oil," spokeswoman Elizabeth Guyton said.
    For the last time (and I'm no anti-KXL hardliner), that oil is going to Asian markets, not ours!
    Don Stewart, a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), did not confirm or deny that Brown lobbied GOP leadership against the Shaheen-Portman bill.
    I doubt he was the deciding voice in stopping it and the pipeline debate probably led to this, but still, it was an epic dick move on his part.  I hope they use it against him to soil his "bipartisan" phoniness.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:40:11 PM PDT

    •  FWIW, NH Dems are attacking him over it. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      over on Twitter

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:41:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is worth a real TV attack ad (5+ / 0-)

        This isn't really about energy policy, it's about Scott Brown deliberately trying to kill bipartisan legislation exclusively for his political self-interest.  It destroys the core of his desired image as a Northeastern Republican, as a "moderate" who would work with people of varied politics.

        This ad must be made.  I hope they're already making it!

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:16:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  3 Judges confirmed to the Dist. of Arizona today (4+ / 0-)

    3 more to go.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 04:54:56 PM PDT

  •  SD-SEN: additional points on SurveyUSA poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Gordon Howie actually was included in the SurveyUSA poll, getting 3%.  Howie is supporting Stace Nelson for Senate, and only jumped in already cause the independent filing deadline came.  We should have a better idea of how big a factor he will be in the election after the primary when he gets his campaigning going and the anti-Rounds forces decide whether to back him.

    Independent Clayton Walker got 2%.  Walker finished third in a 2010 Democratic primary for a state house seat.  He is largely unknown and just entered, so I would think his support is probably really more of an "other/none of the above."  He is under investigation for possible criminal violations regarding his nominating petitions, so he is unlikely to become a factor.

    The Republican primary poll numbers are actually the favorable ratings for each candidate, not a primary poll.  Not like it makes much of a difference since Rounds should win by a large margin.  Weiland actually has the best net favorable of all candidates at +14 (33/19), compared to +10 for Rounds (45/35) and +2 for Pressler (29/27).

    http://www.aberdeennews.com/...

    30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

    by footfootfoot on Wed May 14, 2014 at 05:18:48 PM PDT

    •  Wait, is that former hockey star Gordie Howe??? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 05:23:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, it's not. (0+ / 0-)

        Hence Howie, not Howe.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 06:14:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  OR-Sen: Santorum endorses Conger, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

    Eugene Register Guard (Eugene's newspaper) endorses Wehby, and the reason given is just that they perceive her as the most electable.

    The first endorsement might reinforce that.

    ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:01:07 PM PDT

    •  more on Santorum: he's speaking in a radio ad for (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Conger, talking about how he supports life and traditional marriage.
      link

      ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

      by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:04:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Even more: there are less than 100 Santorums... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        ...in the American electorate.  Which really surprises me.

        To see what I'm talking appoint, see my comments below.

        Conger is 56% Republican.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:53:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think he will change the race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      The primary is still Likely Wehby.

      Santorum, another Republican I cannot stand.

      Moderate Republican, PA-5

      by PSUCentrePA on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:17:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PSUCentrePA, ehstronghold, MichaelNY

        I think the only thing that might get Conger across the line is if Oregon Right to Life is working on the ground for him in a serious way. I don't think many people care about who Santorum or Romney or Gingrich endorse.

        ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:08:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think Wehby will win the nomination... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I predict she won't carry a single county east of the Cascades.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:11:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Does Hood River County count? (0+ / 0-)

          It looks like the city of Hood River is just east of the Cascades. I think Wehby would probably win that county, which seems to like more moderate Republicans.

          •  No, it doesn't (0+ / 0-)

            I consider Hood River County part of northwestern Oregon, although definitions vary. (Weirdly, the county is included in the 541/458 area code, which is all of Oregon but the northwest corner plus a slice of Del Norte County, California, as well as OR-02 -- but it's in Transportation Region 1, which otherwise covers the tri-county Portland Metro.)

            Technically, the populated part of Hood River County is really north of the Oregon Cascades, but there's a pretty dramatic change in scenery (and climate) on the road between Hood River city (in the county's northeastern corner) and Mosier in neighboring Wasco County.

            Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 14, 2014 at 10:39:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Must-use election tool (link)...... (4+ / 0-)

    Linky here:  http://targetsmartcommunications.com/...

    Type in any last name, and the result spits out the partisan political behavior of the people of that last name.  It also tells you predicted turnout rate for people of that last name.

    My last name turned up 7480 people who have it, presumably all adults, and 69% identify as Democrats, and 31% as Republicans.

    This made me instantly realize I can research random Indian names to see how they turn up.

    Kulkarni:  80% Democrats
    Aggarwal:  83% Democrats
    Desai:  81% Democrats
    Gandhi:  81% Democrats
    Sharma:  84% Democrats
    Bera:  56% Democrats......but is it exclusively Indian?
    Jindal:  82% Democrats (sorry Bobby)
    Singh:  85% Democrats

    Compare to some Euro-American names.

    Hatfield:  53% Republican
    McCoy:  60% Democrats
    Smith:  57% Democrats
    Jones:  65% Democrats
    Cantor:  74% Democrats (but Eric is Jewish)
    Boehner:  63% Republican
    McConnell:  51% Republican
    Braley:  53% Republican
    Ernst:  54% Republican
    Warner:  51% Democrats
    Kaine:  60% Democrats
    Biden:  55% Republican
    And finally...drum roll please, not Euro but...OBAMA!

    And the President's surname turns up:

    Your name is really unique!

    In order to protect your privacy, searches are limited to last names that have 100 or more voters in the United States

    My biggest takeaway from this is to confirm that Indian-Americans are lopsidedly Democratic.

    Of course, I would like to know what surnames are most heavily Republican, but that's harder since white conservatives are all over the map on European surnames, and share them with plenty of liberal whites and racial minorities.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:30:30 PM PDT

    •  Bera is likely Italian, too. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      Yogi Berra is just an "r" away.
      Indian names all seem to be 80-85%.  I also searched Gupta, Khanna, Varma, and Saxena.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:35:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Crazy people search (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Gohmert actually turned up no result because less than 100 people, same as Obama!  That surprises me.

        Bachmann is 55% Republican.
        Paul is 57% Democrats
        King 58% Democrats
        West 54% Democrats
        Helms 60% Republican
        Schlafly (as in Phyllis) is less than 100 people!
        Same with Cuccinelli!
        Falwell has only 361 people nationwide and 52% are Democrats!
        Robertson is 54% Democrats

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:45:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Trying some German last names (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Mueller: 57% Republican
      Heinrich: 58%
      Boehner: 63%

      German-American last names should be near the top; they're somewhat more conservative than Poles/Italians and the names should be almost exclusively White.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:39:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good job! And now, David Nir will be happy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid, MichaelNY

        Nir is 72% Democrats, 124 total individuals.

        Moulitsas is less than 100 people.

        Jarman is 54% Republican (sorry, David, you're now assigned to go on a mission and convert Jarmans)

        And trying some random handles, DCCyclone and jncca did not turn up any results.  Shocking!

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:48:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My real last name is 75% Dem, unsurprising (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          since most Jewish names are similar.  Ah, looks like you won't be able to count on too many DCCyclone's contributing to you when you run for president :/

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:59:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  My Jewish last name is 70% Democratic. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, James Allen, MichaelNY, gabjoh

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:50:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're lying (5+ / 0-)

        I just looked up KingofSpades and it turned up nothing, plus KingofSpades isn't Jewish!

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 07:52:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          I just found something very funny.  My girlfriend's mother's last name is very distinctive.  There are only 579 people with that name, with only 312 expected voters.  Her mother is one of seven siblings, most of whom had children, and the whole family is Republican!  So on their own they're swaying the name (it's 70% Dem in Illinois but 75% GOP in California, a 30-10 margin made up probably almost entirely of her family).  The name overall is 52-48 Republican, an edge that is entirely due to her family.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:02:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            Gingrich: 65% Republican.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:08:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  my Jewish grandmother's is 77% Dem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        every person with her last name from Massachusetts, her home state, is a Democrat.

        ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:24:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Also, good to see there still is a contingent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        of my family over in Missouri, where my great-great grandfather settled when he moved here from the Rhineland.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:39:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some interesting ones (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Nguyen, which is the surname for literally about 40% of Vietnamese people, is 59% Democratic; this one is particularly weird. De Jong, which is the most common surname in the Netherlands, is 66% Republican. Goldberg, the most stereotypically Jewish name I could think of, is 75% Democratic.

      •  That's odd. (0+ / 0-)

        Didn't know De Jong was a Dutch name, it sounds so weird.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:20:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Vietnamese shifted very far leftward in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        Tran was similar.  I'll bet Obama did win close to 60% of the Vietnamese vote.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:20:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  AALDEF national exit poll (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

          Vietnamese presidential vote

          2008: 67-30 McCain
          2012: 54-44 Romney

          Huge shift, but NOT Dem leaning.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:28:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hm (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            benamery21

            I bet it has to do with the percentage being the percent of population and the data you have being voters.  Asians have low voting rates, but the Vietnamese in particular have a huge generation gap which probably makes the voters 10+ points more Republican than the population.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:35:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ChadmanFL

              The younger generation is definitely much less polarized, although older non-citizens probably lean more GOP, which would skew total population stats in the opposite direction.  

              I think the tool is supposed to be giving turnout and vote lean projections, however, so it seems like it should be a closer match.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:40:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Tran and Pham also show Democratic (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't believe that for any of those three surnames (which together make up 56% of the Vietnamese population).

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:31:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Then you didn't look at precinct-level results (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL

          in Orange County in 2012.  Along with Dade County, the Vietnamese-heavy parts of Orange County had the biggest shifts in the nation.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:41:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How big a shift? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:44:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I could look, but I believe 5-8 percent (0+ / 0-)

              as the country moved 2% right.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:36:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Any particular reason why? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson, benamery21

            I'm guessing the shift is due to the GOP tacking ever further to the right on immigration.  Maybe a generational shift as well.  Most of the older Vietnamese-Americans are probably anti-Communists who fled here prior to the end of the Vietnam War.  I would think their kids have a more liberal philosophy than their parents, sort of like younger Cuban-Americans.

          •  I did look at the AALDEF exit polls (0+ / 0-)

            last year, however, since I was interested in the disaggregated Asian-American vote.  I used to live in Little Saigon ('98 to '01), those neighborhoods are not monolithically ethnic Vietnamese, nor are they the most conservative geographic concentration of Vietnamese in the nation.

            http://aaldef.org/...

            Vietnamese-Americans voted 54-44 for Romney according to the AALDEF exit poll.  There was a shift (probably mostly due to the 26% of Vietnamese-American voters who were first time voters in 2012), but that doesn't make them heavily Democratic leaning.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:05:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  heh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I put in some common Spanish names: Lopez, Gomez, Garcia, Gonzalez, Rodriguez. All 80% or 81% Dem.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:09:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My last name is 56% republican (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      About what I figured since it's Germanic in origin and probably nearly 100% white.  Both my first and last name fall in the "generic white guy" category.

      I am also a descendent of the McCoy's (ya, THOSE McCoy's) though.  I'm guessing McCoy is so Democratic because a lot of African-Americans have that name.

      •  They do? (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't know that.  McCoys and Hatfields in WV and KY (where those warring families lived) are very Dem.  I read an article once that Chris Harris, the Dem Magistrate from Pike County challenging State Rep. Hall in the 93rd Dem primary, got donations from Hatfields and McCoys.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:19:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  interesting, I'd have thought Allen would be R (0+ / 0-)

      but it's not generally, not even in the South. 58% Dem. My mother's rarer last name (maiden name that she kept) is actually about the opposite, which is surprising because all of her family are Dems. Outside of Massachusetts all the other states where they're found are Republican-leaning, but her family in Mass turns it blue there.

      ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

      by James Allen on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:19:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Allen isn't White enough (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Any name of British origin will be light red to medium blue because of all the slaveowners.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:21:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Founding Fathers last names - legacy of slavery? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Seems that way...

      Washington - 95% Democratic
      Jefferson - 89% Democratic
      Lee - 64% Democratic
      Henry - 64% Democratic

      I tried a bunch of other founders who were from the south and nearly all are heavily Democratic names.  Especially so in the southeast.  Has to be large numbers of African-Americans with those names.

    •  Interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      Most of my european ancestary is Scottish and English.  The Scottish names range from 58% to 85% (Swinton) Democratic.  The English names range from 54% Republican (though, in my homestate, it's actually a Democratic name) to 59% Democratic.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:40:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My last name - Dem majority in only a few states (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      My last name is 56% white, with 7,213 people having that name.  Interestingly enough the only states where my name is majority Democratic are:

      WA - 64%
      ID - 63% (WTF)
      IA - 67%
      MO - 51%
      NH - 54%

      Utah has 17 Democrats with my last name.  At least 3 (to my knowledge) are part of my family.

    •  My real last name (Gibson): 57% Democratic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
    •  Mine was 93% Democratic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      It's an Arabic name that a lot of African-Americans who opt to change their names select (my father went through a Muslim phase in his midlife crisis :P), so that wasn't surprising. My actual family name was 75% Democratic.

      28, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:27:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting the difference a letter makes. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      "Anderson" is 54% Dem, while "Andersen" is only 44% Dem.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -1.85, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:48:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  AALDEF 2012 exit poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Shows:
      "Asian Indian" as 84-14 Obama,
      Pakistani as 91-6 Obama,
      and Bangladeshi as 96-3 Obama

      28% of the 9096 voters surveyed were South Asian.

      http://aaldef.org/...

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:52:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This poll notable omits Japanese Americans (0+ / 0-)

        There are more people of Japanese descent than there are people of Pakistani or Bangladeshi descent in the United States. Perhaps it's because Japanese Americans tend to be more integrated in American society, and recent Japanese immigration is closer to Western European immigration than to East Asian immigration in character. But a lot of Arab Americans are pretty well assimilated too; think George Mitchell, Darrell Issa, Justin Amash, and Nick Rahall. And for that matter, Steve Jobs.

    •  Basque last names (4+ / 0-)

      Not easy to find Basque last names over 100 in the United States. The rule for a Basque surname is to be under 100. I know 15 of my own last names. Only 6 of them are over 100, only 2 over 600, and the most common is under 3000. Taking into account the large variety of Basque last names in Europe and the little number of Basques, even in Europe it is difficult to find Basque last names that are the first last name for more than 5000 persons.

      But still, there are a few that are common in all America. Most of the people with these last names are not direct inmigrants from the Basque Country, they are inmigrants from other (latin)american countries where the last name come from the Basque Country.

      80% D 20th: Garcia (Gartzia)
      82% D 254: Vasquez (Baskez)
      80% D 342: Salazar ()
      81% D 260: Mendoza (Mendotza)
      78% D 578: Navarro (Nabarro)
      83% D 660: Ayala (Aiala)
      80% D 782: Aguirre (Agirre)
      81% D 833: Ochoa (Otxoa)
      82% D 1102: Orozco (Orozko)
      83% D 1185: Ibarra (
      )
      82% D 1294: Zuniga (Zuñiga)
      76% D 1328: Quintana (Kintana)
      78% D 1448: Duarte ()
      80% D 1452: Arellano (
      )
      82% D 1473: Esparza (Espartza)
      84% D 1550: Zavala (Zabala)
      83% D 1805: Peralta ()
      78% D 1920: Ybarra (Ibarra)
      82% D 1930: Esquivel (Eskibel)
      80% D 2533: Anaya (Anaia)
      56% D 2713: Uribe (
      )
      74% D 2810: Archuleta (Artxuleta)
      81% D 2893: Carranza (Karrantza)
      81% D 3211: Salcedo (Salzedo)
      75% D 3625: Apodaca (Apodaka)
      81% D 3801: Arteaga ()
      80% D 4112: Echevarria (Etxebarria)
      78% D 4190: Vergara (Bergara)
      79% D 4329: Garay (Garai)
      79% D 4996: Jauregui (Jauregi)
      78% D 6622: Arana (
      )
      77% D 7107: Echeverria (Etxeberria)
      74% D 7494: Urrutia
      71% D 7595: Landa ()
      85% D 7872: Zamarripa (
      )
      70% D 9726: Ulibarri ()
      76% D 10151: Arrieta (
      )
      77% D 10244: Monreal ()
      82% D 10813: Izaguirre (Izagirre)
      74% D 11589: Zabala (
      )
      55% D 11819: Bascom (Baskom)
      73% D 14425: Uriarte ()
      64% D 14903: Sola (
      )
      76% D 15105: Ugarte ()
      77% D 15636: Vizcaino (Bizkaino)
      73% D 16673: Ugalde (
      )
      77% D 18170: Yzaguirre (Izagirre)
      77% D 18894: Murrieta ()

      In a closer relation with the size of the direct Basque migration to the United States

      68% D 24374: Viana (Biana) (701 people in the US)
      67% D 25428: Larrea (
      )
      70% D 28098: Bayona (Baiona)
      60% D 28356: Garro ()
      75% D 29343: Mendizabal (
      )
      59% D 29367: Bilbao ()
      75% D 30668: Acedo (Azedo)
      84% D 30671: Azcona (Azkona)
      74% D 33324: Iriarte (
      )
      74% D 36051: Larranaga (Larrañaga)
      78% D 37434: Garate ()
      73% D 41693: Recalde (Rekalde)
      65% D 46942: Tolosa (
      )
      57% D 55409: Goicoechea (Goikoetxea)
      70% D 61479: Aramburu (Aranburu)
      58% D 62418: Garmendia ()
      48% D 70439: Arranz (
      )
      72% D 72367: Goni (Goñi)
      76% D 74452: Zabaleta ()
      70% D 76016: Mugica (Mujika)
      74% D 79994: Inigo (Iñigo)
      56% D 82211: Uria (
      )
      48% D 85639: Amestoy (Amestoi)
      63% D 88144: Goenaga ()
      89% D 96308: Ibarrondo (
      )
      58% D 103080: Barrena ()
      50% D 116910: Lasa (
      )
      73% D 119472: Elorza (=)

  •  Oh, and here is the first name tool by Clarity! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Linky here:  http://www.claritycampaigns.com/...

    My first name, Indian, is 70.2% Democrats.

    Same for most other Indian first names in this database, about 70-30 Democratic for all of them I checked......eerily the same.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 14, 2014 at 08:03:21 PM PDT

  •  OK-Sen Poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Ragmod

    Primary
    Lankford 34%
    Shannon 32%

    http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/...

    Looks likes we will see a runoff.

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Wed May 14, 2014 at 09:44:37 PM PDT

  •  OH 2016 Quinnipiac (0+ / 0-)

    Clinton leads Bush by 9, Paul, Christie and Huckabee by 8, Ryan by 7, and Cruz by 14.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu May 15, 2014 at 03:04:35 AM PDT

    •  In a Kasich + 15 sample, so she probably (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      leads by a bit more since I don't think he's really up 15.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu May 15, 2014 at 03:17:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "Clinton leads Bush" (0+ / 0-)

      Boy is that ever a blast from the past.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu May 15, 2014 at 03:47:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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