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Leading Off:

GA-Sen: Despite a few hiccups, wealthy businessman David Perdue's been riding high in the polls for some time. Thanks to his free-spending ways (Perdue used to be CEO of the discount chain Dollar General), Perdue has dominated the airwaves in Georgia's Republican Senate primary and staked himself to a small but consistent—if not growing—lead over the last couple of months. The only real fight has been between the two potential runners-up, Rep. Jack Kingston and former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who are both vying for the second slot in order to make the July 22 runoff alongside Perdue.

But with less than a week to go before Election Day, it seems that Perdue just experienced a massive outbreak of sanity—the kind of sanity that, among Republican voters, could easily cost a candidate running in a GOP primary. Indeed, in a recent meeting with the editorial board of the Macon Telegraph, flagged by ThinkProgress, Perdue appeared to go stark raving sane:

"Is it better to try to get out of the ditch by curbing the growth of spending or increasing revenue?" an editorial board member asked.

"Both," Perdue replied emphatically.

"And that's a euphemism for some kind of tax increase, of course," the interviewer noted.

Perdue laughed and explained, "Well here's the reality: If you go into a business, and I keep coming back to my background, it's how I know how to relate is to refer back to it—I was never able to turn around a company just by cutting spending. You had to figure out a way to get revenue growing. And what I just said, there are five people in the U.S. Senate who understand what I just said. You know revenue is not something they think about."

It's interesting to see that the dodgy government-as-business analogy, which so often is deployed to service a conservative agenda, is here being used to buttress a liberal priority, and by a Republican, no less. Of course, Perdue's wrong by an order of magnitude about how many senators understand the need for increased revenues—Democrats grasp this perfectly well—but this certainly isn't the first time he's displayed more than a touch of arrogance when it comes to his supposed business acumen.

Was it also arrogance that drove Perdue to speak such heresies against conservative dogma? Ronald Reagan's famous 11th commandment for Republicans has long since been usurped by a new doctrine: "Thou shalt never raise taxes." Perdue's not a seasoned politician (he's never run for office before), so maybe he just cracked of out turn. Or maybe he figures none of his opponents have the resources to use this against him.

But Kingston, at least, still has plenty of money, plus there's also that runoff to worry about. And Handel's already pounced, saying that "'raising revenue' is code for raising taxes." It's not even code—it's a synonym!

So either one of two things is likely to happen: Perdue will have to half-apologize and claim he didn't mean what he said, or he'll stand by his statements and pay the price. Door number three, of course, is that he sticks with his pro-tax hiking stance and wins anyway. But in today's Republican Party, is that really the outcome you want to bet on?

Senate:

CO-Sen: It's been a little while since we've seen a new Americans for Prosperity ad, but they're back with another spot in Colorado. They don't bother with any of their usual Affordable Care Act lies; instead, they praise GOP Rep. Cory Gardner for supporting the Keystone pipeline and opposing Obamacare. Bor-ring. Meanwhile, the American Energy Alliance attacks Democratic Sen. Mark Udall for opposing Keystone in their own ad.

IA-Sen: Republican businessman Mark Jacobs takes direct aim at state Sen. Joni Ernst's last ad, where, clad in leather, she rode a motorcycle to a firing range to take shots at a target standing in for Obamacare. Jacobs' new spot features stills of Ernst in her biker getup, with a narrator saying that some people "do strange things to get elected." The ad then accuses her of voting to raise taxes and cites her frequent missed votes in the legislature this year, including some on elder abuse and human trafficking. "When it comes to protecting Iowa," the voiceover concludes, "she's firing blanks," as an unseen hand repeatedly clicks the trigger on an empty pistol. (Note: Blanks actually make noise and can be dangerous! This ad does not show blanks getting fired!)

MS-Sen: A new ad from Chris McDaniel gives a little praise for his incumbent GOP primary rival, Sen. Thad Cochran, before proceeding to bury him with a litany of pork and pay raises: "Spend 41 years in Washington, and even good men can lose touch with their conservative roots." (David Jarman)

MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. John Walsh's new ad hits Steve Daines for overseeing outsourcing of manufacturing jobs when he was in the private sector. It also slips in an odd little mention that Daines voted twice to increase the debt limit (um, good?) ... though perhaps the intent there is, a la the Jon Tester campaign in 2012, to sow doubts about Daines' conservative bona fides and try to drive hard-liners to the Libertarian candidate instead. (David Jarman)

NE-Sen, -Gov, -02: Tuesday night's primaries in Nebraska brought one blowout, one barnburner, and one shocking near-upset. In the open-seat GOP primary for Senate, Midland University President Ben Sasse, who had locked down the support of the entire tea party establishment, crushed the field with 49 percent of the vote. A late surge by self-funding banker Sid Dinsdale fell far short, as Dinsdale only took 22 percent. Former state Treasurer Shane Osborn finished in third with 21—a humiliating fall from grace for the one-time frontrunner. Sasse will face Democratic attorney Dave Domina in November, in a race we rate as Safe Republican.

On the flipside, the Republican primary for governor (also an open race) wasn't called until after midnight Eastern time. Wealthy businessman Pete Ricketts edged past state Attorney General Jon Bruning 26-25, while state Sen. Beau McCoy took third with 21, leapfrogging ahead of better-known state Auditor Mike Foley, who finished with just 19. For Bruning, it's his second serious loss in as many cycles, and like his defeat in the 2012 Senate primary, he was once the favorite here, too. Ricketts will square off against former University of Nebraska Regent Chuck Hassebrook in the general election. We rate the race as Likely Republican.

Finally, in Nebraska's 2nd District, Rep. Lee Terry has definitely done something to piss off GOP voters. (This is, after all, a guy who once paid for mailers touting the support of "Obama-Terry voters.") Despite facing a totally underfunded Some Dude in Dan Frei, and despite running TV ads in the race's closing weeks, Terry only prevailed by a narrow 53-47 margin. Indeed, Terry's primary performance keeps getting worse, and one day, he'll either lose or retire—or get beaten by a Democrat. That could even happen this year, though it would be a longshot. Terry has to get past Democratic state Sen. Brad Ashford, but Ashford hasn't raised much money and we rate the race as Likely Republican.

SD-Sen: A new SurveyUSA poll of South Dakota's Senate race finds GOP ex-Gov. Mike Rounds leading Democrat Rick Weiland 44-30, with independent Larry Pressler at 17. The poll apparently did not include conservative Gordon Howie, a Republican running as an independent. Rounds also has a big lead in the Republican primary, taking 45 percent versus 16 for state Rep. Stace Nelson and 11 for physician Annette Bosworth.

Gubernatorial:

AR-Gov: Democratic ex-Rep. Mike Ross may have received some unwelcome polling news lately, but that didn't stop him from crushing Republican ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson in fundraising last month. Ross raised $491,000, versus $240,000 for Hutchinson. They've both been spending heavily on TV (over half a million each), but Ross still has a lot more in the bank, almost $2 million compared to $904,000 for Hutch.

ID-Gov: Idaho Gov. Butch Otter faces a primary challenge next week from state Sen. Russ Fulcher, whose candidacy hasn't grabbed a lot of attention. There hasn't been any polling, and Fulcher remains a longshot, but he actually hasn't been outspent as dramatically as you'd expect. Between Jan. 1 and May 4, Otter spent about $510,000 on the race while Fulcher managed to spend $226,000. However, Otter had much more left over for the stretch run, $605,000 versus just $79,000 for Fulcher.

But we'll see how much conservative discontent Fulcher can tap into on Tuesday. He's slammed Otter for setting up a state-based health insurance exchange under Obamacare, and he also just earned the endorsement from GOP Rep. Raul Labrador, one of Congress' most notorious dystopian extremophiles. Even if Otter's successful, though, this is almost certain to be his last race, and Fulcher or Labrador (who considered a run earlier in the cycle) could have another opening four years from now.

OH-Gov: Hrm. Quinnipiac's last couple of Ohio polls placed GOP Gov. John Kasich in the low 40s, and in February, he sported just a 43-38 lead on Democrat Ed FitzGerald. But in their newest survey, Kasich's shot up to a 50-35 advantage on Fitz. Now, Kasich has done some television advertising (and so has the RGA) while FitzGerald has not yet gone on the airwaves. But not only did Kasich just triple the size of his lead here, his 15-point edge is the biggest he's ever seen in a public poll. So this is definitely one of those situations where you want to wait for confirmation for someone else.

PA-Gov: After a virtual blackout that featured just one poll in the last six weeks, we finally have a couple of new surveys of the Democratic primary for governor in Pennsylvania. With less than a week to go before Election Day, Franklin & Marshall still sees businessman Tom Wolf in the lead with 43, but Rep. Allyson Schwartz has made up a lot of ground and is now at 26. At the end of March, Wolf had a 40-9 advantage, but time has almost run out for Schwartz.

Republican pollster Harper Polling, meanwhile, sees Wolf running away with the nomination. He's at the mid-century mark with a full 50, while Schwartz is tied with state Treasurer Rob McCord at 15. In February, Harper had Wolf at 40, Schwartz at 14, and McCord at 8—in other words, no sign of any movement for Schwartz. Regardless of whether she's advancing on the frontrunner, though, it would be a definite upset if Wolf lost at this point.

Meanwhile, Schwartz's closing statement ad is a low-key, policy-driven number, talking about her plan to use drilling taxes to better pay for education.

House:

CA-31: It looks like the DCCC is still very concerned about a repeat of 2012's nightmare scenario, where two Republicans made it through the top-two primary in California's 31 District, a blue-tilting seat. In a new poll from Tulchin Research shared with Roll Call, Republican businessman Paul Chabot leads the field with 23 percent, while three Democrats are all bunched up behind him: Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar is at 15, while attorney Eloise Reyes and ex-Rep. Joe Baca are at 13.

Tulchin's memo expresses fear that a second Republican, former congressional aide Leslie Gooch, could slip into the second-place slot once she starts spending. However, right now, she's only at 6 percent, and there's a third Republican, consultant Ryan Downing, who's actually at 7. But Downing hasn't even filed any FEC reports, and there's actually a fourth Democrat in the race, San Bernardino School Board Trustee Danny Tillman, who is further splitting the left-leaning vote and currently taking 6 percent.

But the most important line in the memo appears to be this one: "Absent one of the leading Democrats experiencing a drop in support resulting from a negative attack, the November shutout scenario will continue to remain a real possibility .... Research has consistently found that Joe Baca is by far the candidate most vulnerable to negative attack among this primary field." That seems to be a signal/plea to Reyes that if she goes negative, she should aim her fire at Baca, whom Tulchin says it "extraordinarily unlikely to clear the primary," rather than Aguilar, the D-Trip's endorsed candidate.

In other words, if Reyes and Aguilar get into a fist-fight, then Baca will remain at his current level of support, thus keeping the Democratic vote badly divided and giving Gooch a chance to sneak through. But if Reyes (and hey, Aguilar, too) decide to whale on Baca, they can drive down his share of the vote and try to scoop some of it up for themselves.

Indeed, Aguilar's already been sending out mailers attacking Baca, but Baca actually moved up 5 points over the last month, according to Tulchin's trendlines. So it may just be that the DCCC is actually worried about Baca making it past the primary, despite what they say, and want him taken down. Whatever the case, the situation is totally ridiculous, but then again, so is California's top-two primary system.

GA-12: It's a couple of weeks old, but a poll from Landmark/Rosetta finds businessman Rick Allen with a wide lead in next week's GOP primary for the right to take on Rep. John Barrow. Allen takes 40 percent, while his nearest competitor, businessman Eugene Yu, is back at 15, and everyone else is in single digits. Allen would need to clear 50 percent, though, in order to avoid a runoff.

NH-02: Here's a more traditional Americans for Prosperity ad, this time attacking Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster over a quote she offered in response to problems with the ACA's rollout, saying "patience is a virtue." The ad then runs through a litany of alleged problems with Obamacare (most of them bogus, naturally), before berating Kuster again over her call for patience.

NJ-03: GOP Rep. Jon Runyan, whose surprise retirement announcement opened up this seat late last fall, has endorsed former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur in the race to succeed him. MacArthur also earned the support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He faces 2013 Republican Senate nominee Steve Lonegan in next month's primary.

PA-13: With just days to go before the Democratic primary, ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies has finally unleashed the Big Dog. Her new ad features clips of Bill Clinton praising her in a speech a month ago (but why did she wait so long to run this spot?). Clinton employs a little bit of praeterition, saying, "I'm not coming here saying vote for her because 20 years ago she saved the economy"—but I'll remind you about that anyway. He goes on to add that Margolies will "take initiative, she'll do things and stand up when she needs to stand up and cooperate when we need cooperation." There's no word on the size of the buy, though Margolies has been struggling to make ends meet so it may not be all that large.

WV-02: Despite engaging in one of the most blatant acts of carpetbagging in recent memory, former Maryland state GOP chair Alex Mooney captured the Republican nomination for West Virginia's open 2nd Congressional District in Tuesday night's primary, in the race to succeed Shelley Moore Capito. Mooney, generally portrayed as a tea partier in spite of his establishment roots, won with 36 percent, while self-funding pharmacist Ken Reed took 22 and former U.S. Trade Commissioner Charlotte Lane finished third with 18.

Mooney will now face former state Democratic Party Chair Nick Casey, who defeated state Del. Meshea Poore 60 to 40. (Oh, and in case there was any doubt, the party organization Casey used to head up was West Virginia's.) Democrats have a plausible shot at picking up this seat, which is the state's bluest judging by presidential numbers—though at 60-38 Romney, it's certainly not blue. But Casey is a better candidate than Mooney, and the district is ancestrally Democratic. Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Lean Republican.

Other Races:

AK Ballot: PPP's new Alaska poll also includes numbers on three big ballot measures that will go before voters this year, albeit at different times. In the August primary, voters say they want to repeal a controversial tax cut for energy companies by a 45-34 margin, similar to the 43-31 spread PPP found in February.

In November, meanwhile, there's huge support for increasing the minimum wage, with 67 percent in favor of the idea and just 27 percent opposed. However, when it comes to legalizing marijuana (which will also be on the fall ballot), Alaskans are very closely divided, with 48 percent in support and 45 against. One caveat, though, is that PPP is trying to capture two very different electorates in one poll (for the primary and the general), so it's possible some of these numbers are off.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu May 15, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WI-Gov: Another Walker document dump coming (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vatexia, MadGeorgiaDem, Patango

    Looks like a federal court ordered a bunch of documents from the multi-county "John Doe II" probe into alleged illegal campaigning by Walker and other Republicans in the 2012 Wisconsin recall elections to be released.

    This is the second document dump from an investigation into Walker...documents from the trial of former Walker aide Kelly Rindfleisch, part of the first John Doe probe in Milwaukee County, were released earlier this year, although that did virtually nothing to move the needle in the gubernatorial race in Wisconsin.

    Link

  •  Really disappointed that Paul Broun (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MadGeorgiaDem, R30A, Aquarius40

    isn't leading in Georgia. I was looking forward to a Republican candidate for the United States Senate having to explain just exactly how the science of embryology is from "the pit of Hell."

  •  Rut roh, Shaggy, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, Aquarius40

    I think Perdue just stepped in it. Nothing will end a promising career in GOP politics like a bout of sanity.

    Guns are never the principal in the commission of a crime, but they are usually an accomplice

    by MadGeorgiaDem on Thu May 15, 2014 at 06:24:28 AM PDT

  •  Budgets (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MadGeorgiaDem

    Of course, in the real world the last Bush budget (10/2008-10/2009) had a one and a half trillion dollar deficit, the latest Obama budget has a deficit under a half trillion, and that change has more-or-less all been done with revenue increases.

    With respect to California Top-Two primaries,  aren't there at least a few Democrats in their State Legislature?  Might they be prevailed upon to try changing things, which I realize may require another referendum?

    Restore the Fourth! Save America!

    by phillies on Thu May 15, 2014 at 06:26:21 AM PDT

  •  Raising revenue does not equal raising tax rates (0+ / 0-)

    or even imposing new taxes.

    Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.

    A healthy economy that provides jobs generates more revenue with lower expenses than a sick and limping one.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu May 15, 2014 at 06:32:23 AM PDT

    •  Yep. Tariffs raise lots of revenue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Patango, dinotrac

      Saw a story on the front page about tons of cheap foreign steel being dumped on the US market, putting 500,000 US jobs in danger.

      Perfect place for a tariff to raise some revenue without raising taxes a dime.

      •  tariffs are taxes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40, dinotrac

        ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Thu May 15, 2014 at 06:46:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not on individuals (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dinotrac

          Tariffs aren't income taxes, they're not capital gain taxes.

          I'd consider a tariff to be closer to a minimum wage.  Is that also a tax?  Putting a tax on steel imports says China can't pay workers $1/hr and then dump that cheep steel on the US.  A tariff puts high wage US workers on equal footings.

          But I guess if you'd rather accept the GOP language that minimum wage, OSHA regulations and EPA regulations are all taxes on business, then go ahead and call tariffs a tax.

          •  it is an actual tax, unlike the other things (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Norm in Chicago, Aquarius40, dinotrac

            its a tax on imports. No way around that. It has nothing to do with whether I think they're a good idea, but call a spade a spade. Look up the definition of the word, and tax is one of the first things you'll see.

            ...to the philosopher it is iron and grain that made men civilized and brought on the downfall of the human race. - Rousseau, Discourse on the Origins of Inequality Among Men

            by James Allen on Thu May 15, 2014 at 06:59:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fine, but it's a fair tax that accomplishes a lot (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Patango

              Raising taxes on CEOs doesn't make him pay his workers more or expand US operations.  In fact it may do the exact opposite.

              Raising capital gains taxes also doesn't make a CEO invest more in growing the US business.  May just cause him to move capital overseas.

              But a tariff on imports punishes outsourcing, supports a living wage and encourages US investment.

              It's also an easily avoidable tax, which is why I don't include it with personal taxes.  The only way to avoid income taxes is to not have income.  The only way to avoid capital gains taxes is to not own stock.  Not very practical coupled with a desire to grow the economy.

              But to avoid the tariff tax, one simply has to not buy the cheap overseas shit, and instead buy American.  It keeps goods from being cheaper than they should be, instead of more expensive than they should be.  It's a big difference.

            •  But we do not refer to it as (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Norm in Chicago

              "taxing or raise taxes on CHINA , for steal imports "

              They are specifically referred to as TARIFFS , not TAXES

              tar·iff
              [tar-if]
              noun
              1.
              an official list or table showing the duties or customs imposed by a government on imports or exports.
              2.
              the schedule or system of duties so imposed.
              3.
              any duty or rate of duty in such a list or schedule.
              4.
              any table of charges, as of a railroad, bus line, etc.
              5.
              bill; cost; charge.
              DICTIONARY
              Article I, Section 8, Constitutional text

                  The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

              tariffs — taxing as a means of protectionism.

              wiki

              It is specific to IMPORTS

              Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

              by Patango on Thu May 15, 2014 at 07:37:47 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Sure, but it's a tax only if you choose not to (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Norm in Chicago

              buy products that are not tariffed.

              LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

              by dinotrac on Thu May 15, 2014 at 08:10:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  And they are avoidable: buy domestic (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Norm in Chicago

            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

            by dinotrac on Thu May 15, 2014 at 08:10:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Tariffs are a lot like taxes, but they are (0+ / 0-)

          voluntary in nature.  Don't want to pay the Tariff? Buy domestic products.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Thu May 15, 2014 at 08:09:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  We can still cut lots of unnecessary spending (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Patango

    Let's look at the War on Drugs.  Colorado has been spending $60 million annually to ban weed.  With pot legalization, poof, $60 million in spending can be cut.

    Colorado is expecting to raise $100 million from pot taxes.  So boom you say, $160 million to spend on crumbling infrastructure - schools and bridges.

    But no so fast, because it looks like Colorado is going to spend that pot money as fast as it comes in.
    "The spending plan included $45.5 million for youth use prevention, $40.4 million for substance abuse treatment and $12.4 million for public health."

    It costs $45 million to tell kids no pot till you're 21?  
    $40 million for substance abuse when pot isn't addictive?  Put an extra tax on alcohol, and then go legalize meth and heroin and tax them also to fund substance abuse.

    So to summarize, it does little good to raise revenue if that new revenue is just going to be wasted in typical big government nanny state fashion.  The State should be investing in infrastructure only and getting out completely of the "drugs are bad m'kay" business.

  •  PA-13 (0+ / 0-)

    The only choice in that race is Leach. He's endorsed by Bernie Sanders for a reason. He's the best progressive in PA-13 by far.

  •  Ia. GOP Primary Candidate Joni Ernst (0+ / 0-)
    Published on Apr 24, 2014

    When asked how she would balance the U.S. budget, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst said she would eliminate the IRS, the U.S. Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency.

    youtube

    Also at that Iowa PBS forum , they forced her to say specifically she would be FOR allowing insurers to deny coverage for people with preexisting conditions , along with killing the ACA

    While I am sure Mark Jacobs has the same ideas , it will be impossible for Ernst to cover these tracks if she wins the nomination

    1 poll April 9th

    State Sen. Joni Ernst,  is leading businessman Mark Jacobs 25 percent to 23 percent.
    Suffolk

    Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

    by Patango on Thu May 15, 2014 at 07:13:13 AM PDT

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