I don't understand the mechanics of election winning. Mainly what works and does not. I don't see how yard signs can get you elected. But they are everywhere, so they must do something or people would not spend the money of this expensive method of advertising.
So here is my take on the upcoming primary in Kentucky, in Louisville…after the squiggle.
First i've only seen one Grimes sign. I have not seen anything from the other three democrats running. I have seen several "Ditch Mitch" signs which are part of the Grimes side (but not Grimes, something to do with where the money comes from)
I have also seen a large number of "Retire Mitch" the Bevin's version of Ditch Mitch that Grimes has a copyright on(?) so he can't use.
You normally see these in a yard with five or six Bevin signs. In Derby week, there were lots of people holding Bevin signs at events like Ron Paul's followers did. (again how effective is that?) Mitch is up against four other challengers, two are rumored (from Bevin supporters) to really be Mitch supporters trying to dilute the anti-Mitch vote. Only one, Bevin is competing.
Dirty Tricks Done Completely Legal
In Louisville, the Mitch team, sorry "Team Mitch" used local laws prohibiting the display of yard signs more than three weeks before an election to get lots of Bevin signs yanked up. Bevin is not taking that to court, which is sad because he would win based off past rulings that say it is free speech to express political ideas at any time, especially if you can post "we buy ugly houses - cash" signs all years long.
Bevin's supporters had been flooding common areas - the strips of grass at intersections, on ramps, abandoned lots, etc - with signs. It is my opinion that this does not represent any ground support as its just a common area. I've always discounted such signs, you can't judge any kind of support from them in these areas. But when Team Mitch hammered them with the law, Bevin adjusted and kicked the front yard signs into high gear.
The person who last lived at my address was a GOPer. From the junk mail, I would guess a Ron Paul/Rand Paul/Tea Party/Constitutionalist kind. About a week after the Metro started yanking up common area signs, we got mail flyers and door hangers with all sorts of info on how to get Bevin signs put in our yard. Call and leave a message, send an email, return this card, visit our web site, order on line, and so forth. The result is in the middle class and upper middle class areas, lots of Bevin signs. A few "Team Mitch" but a ruff ratio is 1 Team Mitch to every 5 Bevin.
So that means Bevin wins?
No, it means Bevin has put more effort into yard signs than Mitch. I'm guessing that like the Grimes campaign, Mitch supporters fully expect to win the primary and will be putting up signs later closer to the election in Nov. (partly because the signs would have to be taken down with in one week of the primary, then put back up three weeks prior to the general election, who wants to do that?)
There is a primary for our Congressional candidate. Not one sign for either of them.
Lots of judges running. Every one of them are 1) going to be hard on crime; 2) care about the family; 3) have years of experience; 4) want to see justice done with compassion. By law they can't say how they would rule on a case or kind of case, which makes it hard to figure out what makes them different from each other. My plan is to vote for the three that bothered to show up at the last union meeting, and not cast a vote for anyone not opposed. (we have "non-partisan" judge races)
Metro District seats. Some are opposed in the primary, and really, this is the general election for them since no one is running from the GOP in November. My District has a 20+ year incumbent vs an African-American Minister who seems to have his yard signs only in houses that have Bevin signs or had Romney signs in them in 2012. But it's a Democratic primary. The incumbent yard signs are about 20 to the challengers 1. (but the challengers one is a big one with his photo on it - about 4 foot by 5 foot)
Grimes is going to win her primary as she was able to block any real challengers by dirty pool with the State Party. Most people don't even know she is in a primary as her most vocal opposition is running as an independent. (Grimes would be a GOP flag waver in most other states, but here she is a "moderate" Democrat who supports coal mining, opposes most new gun control ideas, is lukewarm on "Obamacare", and wants to have a strong military.)
Mitch is going to win over Bevin, he has been hitting the radio and tv a lot more, knows he is not going to win Louisville so likely is not putting any more money into this area than he has to. I'm told that Bevin has a lot of yard signs in other counties, but they are out done by Team Mitch ones. Not having time to do more than work and sleep (the curse of working for Metro Gov) I have not had to travel out of the county. But my job has me driving all over the county.
I'll be voting (against Grimes) when I get off work tomorrow at 0600 or 1000 if I get stuck with more mandatory OT.