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I don't understand the mechanics of election winning.  Mainly what works and does not.  I don't see how yard signs can get you elected.  But they are everywhere, so they must do something or people would not spend the money of this expensive method of advertising.

So here is my take on the upcoming primary in Kentucky, in Louisville…after the squiggle.

The Democrats
First i've only seen one Grimes sign.  I have not seen anything from the other three democrats running.  I have seen several "Ditch Mitch" signs which are part of the Grimes side (but not Grimes, something to do with where the money comes from)

I have also seen a large number of "Retire Mitch" the Bevin's version of Ditch Mitch that Grimes has a copyright on(?) so he can't use.

The Republicans
You normally see these in a yard with five or six Bevin signs.  In Derby week, there were lots of people holding Bevin signs at events like Ron Paul's followers did. (again how effective is that?) Mitch is up against four other challengers, two are rumored (from Bevin supporters) to really be Mitch supporters trying to dilute the anti-Mitch vote. Only one, Bevin is competing.

Dirty Tricks Done Completely Legal
In Louisville, the Mitch team, sorry "Team Mitch" used local laws prohibiting the display of yard signs more than three weeks before an election to get lots of Bevin signs yanked up. Bevin is not taking that to court, which is sad because he would win based off past rulings that say it is free speech to express political ideas at any time, especially if you can post "we buy ugly houses - cash" signs all years long.

Bevin's supporters had been flooding common areas - the strips of grass at intersections, on ramps, abandoned lots, etc - with signs.  It is my opinion that this does not represent any ground support as its just a common area.  I've always discounted such signs, you can't judge any kind of support from them in these areas.  But when Team Mitch hammered them with the law, Bevin adjusted and kicked the front yard signs into high gear.

The person who last lived at my address was a GOPer.  From the junk mail, I would guess a Ron Paul/Rand Paul/Tea Party/Constitutionalist kind.  About a week after the Metro started yanking up common area signs, we got mail flyers and door hangers with all sorts of info on how to get Bevin signs put in our yard. Call and leave a message, send an email, return this card, visit our web site, order on line, and so forth.  The result is in the middle class and upper middle class areas, lots of Bevin signs.  A few "Team Mitch" but a ruff ratio is 1 Team Mitch to every 5 Bevin.

So that means Bevin wins?
No, it means Bevin has put more effort into yard signs than Mitch.  I'm guessing that like the Grimes campaign, Mitch supporters fully expect to win the primary and will be putting up signs later closer to the election in Nov. (partly because the signs would have to be taken down with in one week of the primary, then put back up three weeks prior to the general election, who wants to do that?)

Other Races
There is a primary for our Congressional candidate.  Not one sign for either of them.

Lots of judges running.  Every one of them are 1) going to be hard on crime; 2) care about the family; 3) have years of experience; 4) want to see justice done with compassion.  By law they can't say how they would rule on a case or kind of case, which makes it hard to figure out what makes them different from each other. My plan is to vote for the three that bothered to show up at the last union meeting, and not cast a vote for anyone not opposed. (we have "non-partisan" judge races)

Metro District seats.  Some are opposed in the primary, and really, this is the general election for them since no one is running from the GOP in November.  My District has a 20+ year incumbent vs an African-American Minister who seems to have his yard signs only in houses that have Bevin signs or had Romney signs in them in 2012.  But it's a Democratic primary.  The incumbent yard signs are about 20 to the challengers 1. (but the challengers one is a big one with his photo on it - about 4 foot by 5 foot)

Over all
Grimes is going to win her primary as she was able to block any real challengers by dirty pool with the State Party.  Most people don't even know she is in a primary as her most vocal opposition is running as an independent.  (Grimes would be a GOP flag waver in most other states, but here she is a "moderate" Democrat who supports coal mining, opposes most new gun control ideas, is lukewarm on "Obamacare", and wants to have a strong military.)

Mitch is going to win over Bevin, he has been hitting the radio and tv a lot more, knows he is not going to win Louisville so likely is not putting any more money into this area than he has to.  I'm told that Bevin has a lot of yard signs in other counties, but they are out done by Team Mitch ones.  Not having time to do more than work and sleep (the curse of working for Metro Gov) I have not had to travel out of the county.  But my job has me driving all over the county.

I'll be voting (against Grimes) when I get off work tomorrow at 0600 or 1000 if I get stuck with more mandatory OT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mumtaznepal, Elwood Dowd, Creosote, petral

    Stupid question hour starts now and ends in five minutes.

    by DrillSgtK on Mon May 19, 2014 at 02:31:43 PM PDT

  •  Far from perfect, but better (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ky DEM, mumtaznepal, Creosote

    Grimes beating McConnell would be a good thing.  I'm not even in KY but was considering sending her some $.

    If you think that's a bad idea, you are welcome to try to talk me out of it.

    •  would not try. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ImpactAv, cotterperson

      I'm very disappointed in the State Party for picking her and driving out any competition.  I don't like that she is getting donations from many of the same businesses as Mitch, and is known in the State Gov as "Gateway" Grimes - the one you have to get approval from before things happen.

      I think the State would have been better served having a robust debate over Coal, Right to Work, Gun Laws, Medicaid expansion, Health laws, etc from a Democratic POV.  Get people comparing the democratic plans, not comparing Mitch's ideas with Mitch light.

      Come November, I'll likely hold my nose and vote, i'm not sure if she is going to get it as I don't think it will make much difference in the long run. Some cosmetic changes likely, but no real change.  Just like 2009 to 2010, when we had the House, Senate (with a super majority) and the White House and squandered it with bickering and appeasing a minority that had no power.

      Stupid question hour starts now and ends in five minutes.

      by DrillSgtK on Mon May 19, 2014 at 03:25:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  OK, I think I understand your perspective (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ahumbleopinion, cotterperson

        and I can't disagree too much.

        However, I hope you will commit to at least voting for Grimes.  And you may need to do it twice if there is a general runoff!

        •  KY does not do it the way CA does (0+ / 0-)

          The primaries are party members only. You have to register as a member of the party before the general election the year prior to the primary.  So if you want to vote in this primary, you had to have registered as a party member (of your choice) before Nov 2013.

          At the end of the day, it will be 1 Democrat and 1 GOP who win the primary (the person with the most votes, not the 50.1% rule).  They face off in the General Election against any non-party candidate - your Working Families, Green, Libertarian, Constitutional parties.

          So in the very unlikely case that she does not win the primary, we will still have a Democrat on the ballot (and a better one at that in my thinking) to face off against Mitch or Bevin.

          Stupid question hour starts now and ends in five minutes.

          by DrillSgtK on Mon May 19, 2014 at 06:43:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Supreme Court! /nt (0+ / 0-)

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Mon May 19, 2014 at 05:37:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I encourage you to re-consider Grimes (4+ / 0-)

    there's been a number of diaries at DKos supporting her, and listing the reasons why.

    This Rover crossed over.. Willie Nelson, written by Dorothy Fields

    by Karl Rover on Mon May 19, 2014 at 03:05:56 PM PDT

  •  You Know And I Know (7+ / 0-)

    The only Democrats who can win Kentucky at this time are conservative Democrats. Grimes is still a helluva lot better choice than the rancid piece of shit McConnell.

    •  Yes .. Steve Beshear gave us #Kynect, and also (0+ / 0-)

      gave us the silliest reason on earth to not support gay marriage (we need reproduction in KY .. geeshus!)

      "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

      by mumtaznepal on Mon May 19, 2014 at 04:51:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So, I've decided for whom I shall cast my one (0+ / 0-)

    Republican vote tomorrow:

    First: Grimes is pretty much guaranteed to win her primary.

    Secondly: Grimes is effectively tied with McConnell in November (now) but beats Bevins by 20 points

    So I'm gonna vote Bevins as the best opposition candidate to lose to Grimes.

    PS you cannot switch back and forth to vote in different party primaries here, at will,if you do you declare for the other party.  So being registered GOP has some small advantages in trying to get better Dems elected.

    "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

    by mumtaznepal on Mon May 19, 2014 at 04:47:12 PM PDT

    •  I miss two things from Ohio (0+ / 0-)

      First is the option to pick a party at primary time to vote in.  My vote against Gateway Grimes won't make a difference, but a vote for Bevin might.  But i'm locked into the party I picked when I registered.

      Second is the mail in ballot.  Ohio was nice, you filled out a card, and they mailed you a ballot. The same ballot you would get at the poll station.  The difference is you had it at home and would mail it back (or drop off).  No driving across town, trying to find parking, standing in line, signing forms, standing in line again, fighting traffic, etc.

      I would love for KY to do that.

      Stupid question hour starts now and ends in five minutes.

      by DrillSgtK on Mon May 19, 2014 at 06:48:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, in Illinois you could just pick what primary (0+ / 0-)

        you wanted to vote in, too.  I don't like this in KY.

        Voting against Grimes, hum? It's Kentucky. Get a Dem, then get a good Dem.  One step at a time.

        "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

        by mumtaznepal on Mon May 19, 2014 at 08:44:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I've never heard "'Gateway' Grimes"... (0+ / 0-)

    ...and I've lived in Kentucky for the last few decades.

    It must be a well-kept secret within state government...

    The word "parent" is supposed to be a VERB, people...

    by wesmorgan1 on Mon May 19, 2014 at 07:57:25 PM PDT

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