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Leading Off:

WI-Gov: Marquette's newest poll of Wisconsin's gubernatorial race is their tightest to date. Among registered voters, GOP Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Mary Burke are tied at 46, compared to a 48-41 Walker lead in March. Walker does, however, have a small 48-45 edge among likely voters. While it's possible the race has tightened, it's also possible it was already this way: Last month, PPP also had Walker up 48-45, so Marquette's prior poll may have been a little too favorable for the incumbent.

Senate:

GA-Sen: One of the most interesting themes from Tuesday's primaries was the decline of former Secretary of State Karen Handel. In the first round of the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary, she was the top vote-getter—with room to spare—taking 34 percent to eventual winner Nathan Deal's 23. This week, she fell about four points short of the second-place runoff spot, losing out to Rep. Jack Kingston 26-22. (David Perdue led with 31.)

A couple of maps help visualize what changed between 2010 and Tuesday. This 2010 map from Dave Leip's Election Atlas shows Handel dominating in metro Atlanta. Handel carried large counties like Cherokee, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett by at least double digits.

Contrast that to this Atlanta Journal-Constitution map of Tuesday's primary. Handel only took first place in three metro Atlanta counties, and her margin over Perdue was never any greater than 7 points. Handel was able to keep things close with Perdue in the other big counties, but this wasn't enough. With Perdue also carrying most of the central part of the state and Kingston cleaning up in the south, Handel needed a stronger performance in the Atlanta area in order to advance. (Jeff Singer)

IA-Sen, -Gov: PPP's new Iowa poll finds state Sen. Joni Ernst clearing out some space in the GOP primary with a 34-18 lead over businessman Mark Jacobs, while radio host Sam Clovis takes 14 and former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker brings up the rear with 6. In February, PPP had Jacobs up 20-13, but Ernst has received a bunch of attention for her quirky TV ads and she's also consolidated a lot of establishment support. Most importantly, she's just shy of clearing the 35 percent mark necessary to avoid a nominating convention. If current trends hold, the GOP will likely avoid this worst-case scenario.

In the general election, though, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley leads Ernst 45-39, which is the same margin as his 41-35 spread last time. That still favors Braley, though, as it means there are fewer undecided voters for Ernst to target in this light-blue state. For what it's worth, Braley also beats Jacobs 42-36, Clovis 43-34, and Whitaker 43-36. The fact that Ernst pushes Braley to his highest vote share may reflect that while she's gotten better known, she also has the highest negatives in the GOP field, with 32 percent saying they have an unfavorable view of her versus 27 percent who see her favorably. (That's a reversal from her 16-7 mark in February.)

Meanwhile, in the governors race, the brief tightening that a few pollsters had seen, including PPP, seems to have slackened. GOP Gov. Terry Branstad leads Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch 48-40, a recovery from a much uglier 43-38 reading in April. You can see Branstad's dip and rise in HuffPo Pollster's chart.

KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Grimes is rolling out her first post-primary ad, a minute-long positive spot that stresses bipartisanship. Says Grimes: "[W]e need a senator who puts partisanship aside and works with both Democrats and Republicans to do what's right for Kentucky. And no matter who our president is, I won't answer to them; I'll only answer to you." Business Insider reports that the ad is backed by a "six-figure" buy.

P.S. This is some awful excuse-making from the awful Gravis Marketing about why their awful Kentucky GOP primary poll was so awful.

LA-Sen: In a not particularly coherent Americans for Prosperity ad, a female narrator says that "Women understand: It's a struggle to make ends meet," then tries to accuse Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu of living "by her own rules," because she allegedly "voted to put our country deeper in debt" seven times. This seems to be an attempt to compare belt-tightening at home with Washington profligacy, a conservative trope that at one point was deployed so successfully even Barack Obama started repeating it, but the message is delivered very awkwardly here.

MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. John Walsh and GOP Rep. Steve Daines are hitting each other with new ads that both feature women sharing personal stories. In Walsh's spot, Melissa Barcroft says she was raped at the age of 14, then goes on to criticize Daines, saying "That's why it's so insulting that Congressman Steve Daines sponsored a bill to make abortion illegal for victims of sexual assault. He's even proposed making women criminals for having an abortion."

In Daines' ad, Rebekah Uzenski describes terrible violence she experienced at the hands of her ex-husband, then thanks Daines for supporting the Violence Against Women Act. Says Uzenski: "I am so thankful there's men like Steve out there that actually stand up for women's rights and what is right."

Gubernatorial:

CA-Gov: SurveyUSA's new California poll predictably showing Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown crushing all comers with 57 percent of the vote in next month's top-two primary, but what's most notable is where his opponents rank. Despite spending millions of his own money on TV ads recently, former Treasury official Neel Kashkari ranks third with 11 percent, while ultra-conservative Assemblyman Tim Donnelly is in second with 18. Not that it really matters, but at least Kashkari would be less of a drag on the GOP than Donnelly. It's doubtful Kashkari will get the chance to lose less badly, though.

NY-Gov: Quinnipiac's new survey still shows Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo handily dispatching likely GOP nominee Rob Astorino, but confirming last month's Siena poll, a hypothetical Working Families Party challenger would draw a sizable share of the vote. In a two-way race, Cuomo beats Astorino 57-28, but that drops to 37-24 in a three-way fight, with an unnamed WFP candidate taking 22. That's very similar to the 39-24-24 matchup that Siena found.

But whether the WFP actually nominates someone other than Cuomo is a very different matter, of course. Cuomo and the WFP have been in talks regarding campaign finance reform legislation, a priority for the party, so it's possible a deal will get struck that leads the WFP to eschew a challenge. But no matter what, the party is holding its annual convention at the end of the month, so a decision has to be made soon.

Cuomo also just tapped a replacement running-mate for Lt. Gov. Robert Duffy, who decided not to seek a second term, and it's a name that'll be familiar to political observers: ex-Rep. Kathy Hochul. Cuomo undoubtedly views this pick as "checking off a couple of boxes," because Hochul is a woman and because she's also from western New York. But Hochul's selection definitely does nothing to appease liberals, as she was endorsed by the NRA when she unsuccessfully sought re-election in 2012 and once declared that she "led the fight against giving illegal immigrants driver's licenses."

House:

AR-04: We seldom write about campaign web videos in the Digest unless they really stand out, but this one qualifies: Bill Clinton cut a two-minute pitch for James Lee Witt, his former FEMA director who earned great acclaim rebuilding the agency in the 1990s after years of Republican neglect. Witt (whom Clinton refers to as "James Lee") has almost the perfect non-partisan profile for this very conservative district, and Clinton stresses that ably, calling Witt a proven "problem solver." (Just about the only policy specifics he mentions is Witt's support of job training programs.) Undoubtedly some of this will wind up in a 30-second spot on the airwaves.

NE-02: Some very good news for Democrats: Former Republican state Sen. Chip Maxwell, who recently indicated he was considering a bid for Congress, says he'll run as an independent this fall. Maxwell presents himself as the true "conservative" alternative to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, who's angered the base with his occasional departures from the party line, both in style and substance. Maxwell, who says he'll rejoin the GOP after the election, has the potential to siphon votes off of Terry's right flank, potentially giving Democratic state Sen. Brad Ashford a big boost in the general election.

Other Races:

ID Legislature: Of the half-dozen states to hold primaries Tuesday night, an argument could be made that the most interesting may well have been Idaho.

A growing GOP civil war hit center stage, with incumbent Gov. Butch Otter barely winning his primary (51-44) over state Sen. Russ Fulcher. What's more, a half dozen GOP state legislators actually lost, several of whom were Otter allies who faced challenges to their right. Compounding the wound for Otter, he had targeted several north Idaho legislators who had been loyal to Fulcher, but only one of the five tasted defeat.

There may well have been some political crosswinds at play as well. At least one of the downed legislators, state Sen. John Goedde, was a major backer of Otter's education reform package, which tanked in a 2012 referendum. (Steve Singiser)

Grab Bag:

Primaries: Tuesday was the biggest primary night of the year to date, with voters in six different states choosing nominees in a wide variety of contests. Here's a recap of all the key action, state-by-state, with Daily Kos Elections' general election competitiveness rating for each race:

KY-Sen (R): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell handily dispatched tea partying businessman Matt Bevin by a 60-35 margin. McConnell will now face Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in one of the year's marquee matchups. (Lean R)

GA-Sen (R): Businessman David Perdue edged Rep. Jack Kingston 31-26, with former Secretary of State Karen Handel finishing third with 22. Because no candidate cleared 50 percent of the vote, Perdue and Kingston will square off again in a July 22 runoff. The winner will run against Democratic non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn, the daughter of ex-Sen. Sam Nunn, in the fall. (Likely R)

GA-01 (R): Several Georgia House races are also headed to runoffs, including the contest for Kingston's seat. State Sen. Buddy Carter, as expected, finished in front of the six-candidate pack, taking 36 percent to 23 percent for physician Bob Johnson. (Safe R)

GA-04 (D): Rep. Hank Johnson, who'd raised some caution flags with some eccentric comments over the years, survived a reasonably close brush with DeKalb County Sheriff Tom Brown, winning 55-45. (Safe D)

GA-10 (R): The race for Rep. Paul Broun's seat wound up incredibly tight on Tuesday night, with both radio host Jody Hice and businessman Mike Collins (a son of ex-Rep. Mac Collins) taking 33 percent of the vote in a seven-person field. Hice finished less than 300 votes ahead of Collins. (Safe R)

GA-11 (R): Democrats might crack a smile at the name of one of the candidates who made it to the runoff in the race to succeed Rep. Phil Gingrey: Bob Barr. The former Republican congressman, notorious Clinton impeachment manager, and privacy gadfly who ran for president on the Libertarian line in 2008, landed in second with 26 percent of the vote. He'll meet state Sen. Barry Loudermilk, who took 37 percent in this six-candidate affair, in the runoff. (Safe R)

GA-12 (R): Delvis has left the building: NRCC pick Delvis Dutton, a state representative, finished third with just 14 percent, but the GOP caught a break anyway, because businessman (and 2012 candidate) Rick Allen avoided a runoff by capturing 54 percent of the vote. (Businessman Eugene Yu, a very shady figure, took 17.) This gives Allen a clear shot at Rep. John Barrow, one of the last Democrats to hold down seriously red turf anywhere in the nation. But Barrow has proven very hard to beat in the past and likely will again. (Lean D)

PA-Gov (D): Wealthy businessman Tom Wolf, who poured many millions into his own campaign, absolutely crushed the rest of the field, taking an outright majority of 58 percent. Rep. Allyson Schwartz finished a very distant second with 18, while state Treasurer Rob McCord took 17 and former state environmental secretary Katie McGinty managed just 8. (For a good post-mortem on what ailed Schwartz, the one-time front-runner, try this.) Wolf will now face GOP Gov. Tom Corbett, who has looked very vulnerable for a long time. (Lean D)

PA-08 (D): Iraq vet Kevin Strouse, an early DCCC recruit, very narrowly edged scientist-turned-businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton, who had the backing of EMILY's List, prevailing by a 51-49 margin. Strouse now has an uphill battle against GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick in this suburban district. (Likely R)

PA-09 (R): Rep. Bill Shuster survived the night with just 53 percent of the vote, but tea partier Art Halvorson finished relatively far back at 35, thanks to the presence of a third candidate, businessman Travis Schooley, who took the remaining 13 percent. It's a scary result for the incumbent, though, given that he spent heavily and Halvorson was penniless. Next time, Shuster might not get so lucky.

PA-13 (D): State Rep. Brendan Boyle, the only candidate from Philadelphia, won a surprisingly large victory in the race to succeed Schwartz, taking 41 percent of the vote. Ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies finished second with 27, while state Sen. Daylin Leach, a progressive favorite, took 17, and physician Val Arkoosh 15. (All three are from suburban Montgomery County.) Boyle was the most socially conservative candidate, but he rode geography and heavy union backing to victory and will be a lock in the fall. (Safe D)

AR-02 (R): Banker and former George H.W. Bush aide French Hill (known as "Freedom Hill," 2003-2006) demolished state Rep. Ann Clemmer, 55-23, as expected. Hill will face former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays in the race for GOP Rep. Tim Griffin's seat. (Griffin, incidentally, handily won the primary for lieutenant governor.) (Lean R)

AR-04 (R): In a much closer-than-expected race, state House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman defeated energy executive Tommy Moll 54-46. Westerman will square off against Democrat James Lee Witt, a former FEMA director under Bill Clinton, in this open-seat race to succeed Rep. Tom Cotton, who's running for Senate. (Likely R)

ID-Gov (R): Gov. Butch Otter's political career nearly met its maker Tuesday night, as he scraped together just 51 percent of the vote in his quest for a third term. State Sen. Russ Fulcher, who made a huge issue out of Otter's decision to create a health insurance exchange under the Affordable Care Act, finished with 44, while those two crazy weirdos combined for 5 percent. With just a little more help, Fulcher could have been the nominee. Well, there's always 2018. (Safe R)

ID-02 (R): The Club for Growth initially had high hopes for attorney Bryan Smith and wanted to make an example out of GOP Rep. Mike Simpson, despite his very conservative record. But Smith fizzled out, the Club abandoned him, and Simpson won comfortably, 62-38. (Safe R)

OR-Gov (R): State Rep. Dennis Richardson crushed his five opponents, earning 66 percent of the vote. He'll be a major underdog, though, to Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber in the fall. (Likely D)

OR-Sen (R): The various stalking and harassment allegations surrounding physician Monica Wehby came too late to derail her, thanks in part to Oregon's all-mail voting system that encourages a high level of early voting. Wehby beat state Rep. Jason Conger, who was running as the true conservative, 50-38. She'll face Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley in the fall, when these various stories about her past behavior may play a bigger role. (Likely D)

OR-05 (R): Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith beat former congressional aide Ben Pollock, 63-37. The underfunded Smith will have a difficult time against Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader, though, an incumbent the GOP has never had much luck targeting despite the swingy nature of this district. (Likely D)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu May 22, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  how did Sarah Palin's endorsed candidates do (7+ / 0-)

    so far this primary season?

    •  Karen Handel tanked in GA. (5+ / 0-)

      Palin's endorsement was prominently featured in her campaign lit. Whoops.

      •  Too bad, in a way (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        glitterlust

        because Michelle Nunn polled well against her.

        Oh well. Maybe the Republican nominee will get the screechy kiss of the Palin.

        And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

        by Pale Jenova on Thu May 22, 2014 at 07:34:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is a conflict I feel about the TP in general (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nadd2, glitterlust, Pale Jenova

          Do I want crappier Republican/Teapublican candidates so my Dems will beat them, even in unlikely purple places like GA?

          Or, do I want ones who have some shred of humanity and might be able to govern just a bit better? (than 50+ Obamacare repeals and Benghazi®!!

          What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

          by TerryDarc on Thu May 22, 2014 at 08:00:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I was hoping she would squeak by (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Pale Jenova, MichaelNY

          for that very reason, but I don't think she ever had a chance against Perdue. He's a businessman, you know. Did I mention that he's a businessman? BUSINESS! (His campaign in a nutshell).

          It will be interesting to see how Nunn proceeds into the general. I hope like hell she can pull it off, but unless she settles into a decent lead (>2-3 points maybe), I fear that things will break in favor in the GOP nominee.  

  •  Will Burke have enough money to contend with any (10+ / 0-)

    Kansas brothers money, which just might pour in?

    •  She won't have as much as Walker. (9+ / 0-)

      But will she have enough? Hard to say.

      She is working a lot harder than Tom Barrett did in 2010.

      Screw John Galt. Who's John Doe?

      by Mike Kahlow on Thu May 22, 2014 at 05:54:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  2010 in general (0+ / 0-)

        Was the Tea Party way underestimated because you had Poe's Law people looking silly with their tricorns and Tennessee battle flags and misspelled signs?

        Then again, was Reagan sorely underestimated in '80 because his '76 primarying of Ford was just so train-wreck bad?

        "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

        by Stude Dude on Thu May 22, 2014 at 06:15:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  WI is the Koch's money laundry test site (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AnnieR, Arfeeto, nadd2, Mike Kahlow

        So it's fair to say that the money has and will pour in, not that it might pour in.

        Regardless, I see a few encouraging signs that seem to show that the money gap isn't as effective as it once was in WI. If so, the Koch's are just going to widen the gap.

        I agree that it is hard to say if she'll have enough money. Money continues to be the biggest problem.

        "Never wrestle with a pig: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it"

        by GrumpyOldGeek on Thu May 22, 2014 at 06:48:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "Money continues to be the biggest problem." (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GrumpyOldGeek, MichaelNY

          Goddamned shame, isn't it?  We lost our democracy.

          •  No, we haven't lost our democracy. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            benamery21, Arfeeto, Mike Kahlow, WisVoter

            Right now, money is the biggest influence and a huge problem in campaign finance for sure. Yeah, it's a damn shame. This native-born cheesehead gets teary-eyed from time to time whenever some WI fascist teabagger legislator destroys something really good and important and that took decades of effort to create.

            It's our democracy that has and will stop this shit again. The word is getting out. The damage is becoming visible, real, and personal. The pushback is growing stronger. It's becoming a national issue. The people will prevail.

            I just wish it would happen sooner rather than later.  

             

            "Never wrestle with a pig: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it"

            by GrumpyOldGeek on Thu May 22, 2014 at 08:36:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  After what Walker has done to Wisconsin, (7+ / 0-)

    it's incredible (at least to me) that he's polling above 25%.

    The Republican motto: "There's been a lot of progress in this country over the last 75 years, and we've been against all of it."

    by Hillbilly Dem on Thu May 22, 2014 at 06:15:02 AM PDT

  •  Likely voters are what matter (6+ / 0-)

    and among likely voters, Walker still wins. this is shameful. why do so many Dems sit out so many elections? This should be our number one cause--GOTV!

  •  Scott Walker losing his governorship (11+ / 0-)

    would be one of the most devastating losses for Movement Conservatism in my adult lifetime. Mitch McConnell losing his Senate seat would be a huge hit, but it doesn't really psychologically set back the entire movement. Basically it embarrasses it, and then the shift is on to how it was his own fault he shit the bed. I bet the second McConnell were to lose the meme would be that he lost because he wasn't conservative enough and Bevin should have been the guy.

    Walker losing is a movement-wide setback.

    I bet there are Republicans in high places who can't imagine it's possible.

    Most wingnuts are disposable syringes. They carry the poison, the deliver it, but their losses don't mean much. Allen West. Michelle Bachmann. America's Deadbeat Dad Walsh. They come, they go. Eh. Embarrassment for a time? Yes. But not a threat to the cause or a wound to the brand. Almost all of them, actually. "Conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed" and all that.

    I think Scott Walker is different.

    Especially after he survived the recall effort.

    Paul LePage goes? Rick Scott? Bobby the Bayou Joke? The Pennsylvania Pothole? Nikki Hay-Who?

    Scott Walker losing would be like wingnut Santa died.

    The wingnuts put him on another level. The Koch crowd put him on another level. There is a lot invested in him psychologically as well as ideologically.

    What a mindfuck his losing would be. From the RNC to the echochamber to the billionaires boys club to the culture warriors. It would hit them on so many levels.

    He's supposed to be a living blueprint for how the rest of the clowns in the clown car should be governing and remaining popular, a great white dope for the GOP recapturing the White House going forward, and the GOP has a lot of their brand wrapped up in him because they let down their guard and put him on another level thinking the recall was the greatest threat to him.

    He loses and the GOP loses a huge human myth and the Movement Conservative brand loses a proven pimp for bamboozling the Village and the low-information voter alike.  

    "Real journalism is printing what someone else does not want printed. Everything else is public relations." -George Orwell

    by LeftHandedMan on Thu May 22, 2014 at 06:46:08 AM PDT

  •  NE-02 (4+ / 0-)

    Reading Brad Ashford's Facebook page, he signed a petition to raise the minimum wage and states the ACA is working but can be improved.

    While even a three-way race in a place as red as Nebraska is almost assuredly a daunting task for anyone who isn't a super-conservative, the idea of the Democrat swiping the race and the seat out of Republican hands makes for some real "get the popcorn" kind of feelings for me.

    He says "Ashford for Omaha", and isn't this the district that gave 1 EV to Barack Obama in 2008? Is it possible that a "true conservative" vs Republican incumbent vs Democrat could actually work out in our favor?

    Even if it would only be a small victory, and even if victory doesn't seem probable but only plausible...I like the sound of it, so far!

    •  Even Lee Terry had a flier in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      talking about Terry-Obama voters, trying to get people to cross and vote for him, too.

      In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

      by James Allen on Thu May 22, 2014 at 07:47:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So let me get this straight (10+ / 0-)

    Walker, McConnell, Corbett, Brownback and a whole bunch of other Republicans are either behind or in VERY tight races....but it's the DEMOCRATS who are doomed in 2014? I don't get it.

    From where I sit, if we GOTV big time in 2014 we'll be OK. I could be wrong, but that's how I see it.

    A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

    by METAL TREK on Thu May 22, 2014 at 06:55:02 AM PDT

    •  The pundits have proclaimed it (5+ / 0-)

      "Democrats are DOOMED."

      Much like how the whole 2012 presidential race was ALL TIED UP!

      And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

      by Pale Jenova on Thu May 22, 2014 at 07:36:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  we're guaranteed to lose US senate seats (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      METAL TREK, R30A, MichaelNY

      beyond that, we don't know how things will pan out.

      In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

      by James Allen on Thu May 22, 2014 at 07:48:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not guaranteed (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisVoter, TofG, MichaelNY, METAL TREK, Odysseus

        It's unlikely, but there is a conceivable future where we actually gain a seat.

        Imagine: MT or WV tightens up, Democrat prevails. McDaniel beats Cochran, Childers prevails. We hold incumbent seats and take GA and KY.

        It's not likely, but it's possible.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Thu May 22, 2014 at 08:34:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  it is such a low probability that it is hardly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          worth discussing, like the probability of a hurricane hitting me here in Oregon. Certainly lower than we had in 2012.

          In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

          by James Allen on Thu May 22, 2014 at 08:44:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That specific scenario, yes (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Odysseus

            but gaining a single seat net is merely improbable, not inconceivable.  MS need not enter the discussion.    However, I would consider a zero net seat change a 'wave' victory.  The 'most probable' scenario is probably a 2 seat net loss, although I see this moving our direction slowly currently.  Gaining even a single seat on net based on changes in the national climate would probably also herald takeover of the House.  I would currently put our chances at less than 5%.  However, because of the smaller number of races, individual race developments could well create such a triumph without that much movement across the nation.  For instance, SD is currently not really even in play, but escalated scandal for Rounds has a nonzero probability of putting it in play, even for Weiland.  There are half-a-dozen such scenarios which would have non-trivial impacts on the state of play.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Thu May 22, 2014 at 09:35:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  There's a lot of "space" between 2010 and 2014 (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisVoter, METAL TREK, Odysseus

            By a quick rough count, Pelosi lost the Speaker's Gavel by fewer than 400,000 net votes. So we don't have to replicate 2012 to "confound conventional wisdom."

            We simply have to do some meaningful amount better than 2010.

            The GOP turnout is a given: there are no "additional reinforcements" they can draw upon. We have to "work" our "casual voters": our reinforcements. Some simply need frequent reminders. Some need assistance negotiating new voter suppression barriers in their way. Some need to be "talked down." The first category might be enough to prevail in all "lean Dem" contests. Add the second and we probably hold a couple of "endangered incumbents" like Hagan and Landrieu. Enough resources to chip away at the third and races such as WV and MT become winnable.

            Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

            by Egalitare on Thu May 22, 2014 at 10:25:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  We have always been favored to pick up (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare, TofG, MichaelNY, METAL TREK

      Gov seats in 2014.  It's the Senate and the House where they continue to beat the bad news drum.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Thu May 22, 2014 at 09:36:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  There is some hope (7+ / 0-)

    The fact that Walker is being coy about serving a full second term if re-elected may be a benefit.  My next door neighbors (both in their 70s) voted for him in the general and the recall.  Yesterday, both told me that I was right--he is a weasel and that they will vote for Mary Burke this time.  I really think the waffling on tenure of Governorship could be a problem--hope it can be exploited

  •  If you're talking about the MSM? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pale Jenova, The Caped Composer

    Then yes, Democrats are ALWAYS doomed. And, yes, it's always great news for John McCain!

  •  "I won't answer to them; I'll only answer to you" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tuffie

    Allison L. Grimes.

    What kind of crappy, anti-Obama, anti-Dem president msg. is that? I think I want my money back!

    What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

    by TerryDarc on Thu May 22, 2014 at 07:57:59 AM PDT

    •  lol (4+ / 0-)

      In a state where Obama lost by 20%, you really think you'll prevail by being buddies with the president?

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Thu May 22, 2014 at 08:35:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, but why go out of your way to bash him? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TerryDarc

        Midterms need turnout.  Painting yourself with this thin 'bipartisan' WHITE-wash isn't going to help.

        •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          We've had numerous diaries on how sticking together to a lower/middle income msg. works. Kynect is now pretty popular so running against the president is bad policy and unnecessary.

          What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

          by TerryDarc on Thu May 22, 2014 at 09:15:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Running away from Washington (4+ / 0-)

            against a multi-term incumbent is a time honored tradition.  Many of the same people fed up with Mitch don't necessarily make the clear distinction between parties which is easy for us.  This is particularly true of the ticket-splitters Grimes MUST court in a state which votes Dem at the state level and GOP at the federal level.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Thu May 22, 2014 at 09:43:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  sigh (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

          No, man, you don't get it. If you want people to turn out, you go against the president in KY. KY Dems have a huge registration advantage over Republicans, 57% to 37% as of 2010. Yet Obama lost by 20%, 60-40. That means that, assuming every Republican voted against Obama, then the remaining 23% had to come mostly from that 57%. Most likely on the order of a third of KY Dems voted against Obama.

          If you want to win, you attack Obama and burnish your independent creds. That's the way it is. Don't like it, then run in a state he actually won.

          And wtf is WHITE-wash? why the capital white? You do know KY's population is vast-majority-white, right? If ALG wants to win, she needs to appeal to white people. Sorry.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

          by Le Champignon on Thu May 22, 2014 at 11:43:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon (0+ / 0-)

    Our conservative side, congressional district 2 where the only R congress-critter is the truly awful Greg Walden has been in office forever...actually only since 1999. He was preceded by the mind-bendinly terrible Wes Cooley, a Tea-bagger before there were tea-baggers.

    South of Eugene and east of the Cascades, our state is quite conservative. Luckily only a few people, a stray sheep or two and the coyotes live there. So, when statewide offices are contested and statewide ballot measures are put on the ballot, Oregon looks a lovely shade of blue. The truth is that 75% of the state by area is red territory.

    BUT! In this election, my southern county and the more conservative one to the north turned down GMO's, dumped and awful sheriff, extended the libraries' funding and did some other pretty reasonable stuff. Happily.

    So, I think the Monica Wehby (sp?) and her ilk of ultra-con Repugs is going to be phased out, at least in the southwest. The eastern part of the state may eventually go purple, I'm hoping!

    What stronger breast-plate than a heart untainted! Thrice is he arm'd, that hath his quarrel just; And he but naked, though lock'd up in steel, Whose conscience with injustice is corrupted. Henry VI Part II Act 3 Scene 2

    by TerryDarc on Thu May 22, 2014 at 08:13:55 AM PDT

  •  I know Grimes is from Kentucky and all, but ... (0+ / 0-)

    Ugh.

    Mealy-mouthed 'bipartisan' bullshit.

    Anyone hoping for a campaign that even mentions Kynect is out of luck, it appears.  Gutless, over-cautious Blue Dog crap.

    •  She does, often (4+ / 0-)

      See, this is what I'm sick of. You don't bother to keep up with a campaign, you just seek to tear it down because they don't run a progressive (aka loser) campaign in the middle of a blood red state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the senate in over two decades. Grimes has run a perfect campaign so far, with absolutely no stumbles. That's why she's tied or leading in nearly every poll taken.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Thu May 22, 2014 at 12:09:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Listen to her acceptance speech (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      She comes across as an old-fashioned labor liberal who is pro-coal. Focus on the big picture, not the fact that no-one who says "I'm running as a stooge of Obama" can win a statewide election in Kentucky.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu May 22, 2014 at 03:10:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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