Be afraid. Be very afraid:
http://www.pennlive.com/...
Liberal California billionaire Tom Steyer is targeting the Pennsylvania race for governor as one of seven races he intends to influence with $50 million of his own money and another $50 million he plans to raise from like-minded donors, according to a report from Politico.
Steyer's central issue is climate change, which he said needs to be cast in terms of a moral right and wrong to gain political traction.
Steyer's polictical action committee, NextGen Climate Action, last year spent millions supporting Ed Markey for Senate and Terry McAuliffe for governor of Virginia. Both won.
Corbett is one of three Republican governors targeted this year; the other four races are all U.S. Senate seats held by Democrats facing serious challenges.
The influx of cash is good news for Corbett's Democratic challenger Tom Wolf, who - despite his self-funding millionaire status - will need significant outside funding support to win in November. As of May 5, Corbett's campaign had nearly six times the cash Wolf's did. - The Patriot-News, 5/22/14
And here's why Corbett should be scared:
http://www.cnn.com/...
The group said that climate can be successfully used as a wedge issue -- Lehane framed it as a moral clash between "right and wrong" -- to boost turnout among Democratic voting groups that tend not to show up in midterm election years, specifically young voters, Hispanics and African-Americans.
As in the Virginia governor's race last year -- when Steyer spent nearly $8 million on a campaign to disqualify GOP nominee Ken Cuccinelli with a combination of TV, mail and field operations -- the efforts will extend beyond the TV airwaves and include what they call "nano-targeting" to tailor messaging to discrete voting groups.
"We are not some super PAC that's going to come in, throw up some ads and leave," Chris Lehane, the longtime Democratic consultant advising Steyer, said. "You can come into these states and really run a total campaign." - CNN, 5/22/14
Steyer's money will come in handy to take out Corbett and turnout is essential if we are going to win in November. By the way, Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs and director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College think they know how Corbett will go after Wolf:
http://www.yorkdispatch.com/...
Both analysts said Corbett's camp will be working to convince voters of the success of the Corbett administration while attempting to discredit Wolf.
"You can call him 'millionaire Secretary Tom Wolf,' make him an elitist," Borick said. "You gotta keep reminding people this isn't an average guy. He's a millionaire. He's different. And it's not easy to do that."
Wolf's lifestyle decisions, from sending his two daughters to public school to driving an old Jeep every day, don't reflect elitism, Borick said. There are also too many people "corroborating his normalness ... saying he's not some kind of removed elite guy.
"It poses lots of challenges for the governor," Borick said.
Corbett could also try to "proactively steal" some of Wolf's agenda, making decisions that are against Corbett's stated beliefs just to try to deflate Wolf's plan.
Corbett's Wednesday decision not to appeal a federal judge's ruling lifting the gay marriage ban in Pennsylvania serves as an example, Borick said. While it will appeal to moderates and it checks an item off Wolf's game plan, it will anger social conservatives, he said.
"Corbett's problems start at home, with his own party," Borick said.
Despite his resistance to an extraction tax on shale gas, Corbett could also realize the inevitability of it given the statewide support for taxing drillers, Borick said.
"He could get out in front of the extraction tax and ... pass something in summer or fall to tax shale," Borick said. "At the end of the day, it's going to take a great campaign from Corbett to make (his re-election) happen. His work is cut out for him." - York Dispatch, 5/22/14
And we should expect a serious race here:
http://www.pennlive.com/...
Corbett, even with his cash advantage, is likely to get serious support from the national Republican party. That has less to do with his accomplishments or policies and everything to do with the fact national Republicans do not want a Democrat in the Pennsylvania governor's mansion going into the 2016 presidential election.
The end of the Obama presidency is ripe for a Republican to rise, and Republicans would desperately love for Pennsylvania's electoral votes to swing red.
That's best illustrated by the fact this afternoon Corbett will be joined by Texas Governor Rick Perry, who will be stumping with him in Washington County.
The 2016 factor means the national Democrats will likely be pumping support into Wolf's campaign as well. Historically, however, such contests - at least as far as the ledger is concerned - are won by the Republicans.
That means the war on Wolf has just begun.
The two big issues going into November split both ways.
Education was the touchstone of the Democratic primary, during which the Democrats established a simplistic and mostly inaccurate narrative that "Corbett cut $1 billion from education." Corbett will have to get over, around or under that or lose.
His problem is: The inaccuracy is simple, emotive and easily remembered, whereas the reality is complicated. Wolf knows the reality is complicated; he acknowledged as much during his PennLive editorial board meeting, but for now the simplicity serves him, and it's Corbett's challenge to overcome.
Jobs and the economy will also be a major issue going into November, and on this score the numbers are beginning to swing strongly in Corbett's favor. Unemployment is down and new job creation is up, which -- if the trend continues -- bodes very well for Corbett.
Again, attributing economic fluctuations to a sitting governor is simplistic and often inaccurate, but explaining why gets complicated, and the explanation can come off like raining on the parade when a candidate attempts it on the campaign trail.
Then there's the issue of the candidates' personalities.
Don't expect fiery eloquence going into November; neither Corbett nor Wolf is inclined to theatrics. Quite the opposite.
Expect the Corbett campaign to rely more heavily on Susan Corbett, whose disarming political savvy lends genuine warmth and humanity to a candidate who can often appear wooden and gaffe-prone.
Expect the Wolf campaign to continue emphasizing Wolf's "outside the beltway" appeal. Even if his back story becomes more complicated, it is largely lacking in government service, which in the current political climate is a good thing.
Neither candidate is the kind of firebrand who's going to whip their base into a lather.
That means the general election may tend toward the soporific, and both sides may have problems with turnout.
In a state that has consistently been trending more and more blue, Corbett must shore up his base and beware the southeast. On the other hand, Wolf must prove he can motivate Philadelphia-area liberals, the only area of the state he didn't dominate in the primary and where only one in five turned out to vote. - The Patriot-News, 5/21/14
And some people, like John Featherman, are prematurely claiming that Corbett has already won re-election:
http://www.philly.com/...
Only two weeks ago, Corbett surprised everyone by saying he won’t appeal the ruling against the Voter ID law.
"After spending millions of dollars on a confusing and expensive ad campaign, and to defend the law in court, the governor finally opened his eyes and saw the light," said House Minority Leader Frank Dermody, D-Oakmont, in a statement on his website.
Don’t forget, Corbett was once labeled “the Grinch” for dropping children off the medical assistance rolls.
Not this year, folks. Corbett raised eyebrows by extending the CHIP health insurance program to 30,000 children in Pennsylvania.
And now, after swiftly deciding that a challenge to yesterday’s federal smackdown of the ban on same-sex marriage was “extremely unlikely” to succeed, Corbett said he won’t appeal the decision.
Same-sex marriage? No Voter ID? Increased educational funding? Extended CHIP coverage? Medicinal marijuana for kids?
If it sounds like a Democrat’s platform, it is. It really is!
But this is an election year – a year in which the Republican governor has magically gravitated to the center.
This is an election year in which even Punxsutawney Phil told Corbett to hibernate for a while.
But Corbett didn’t hibernate.
Instead of throwing punches, Corbett allowed his four Democratic opponents to beat up each other, deplete their resources and get tired.
All the meanwhile, Corbett was just waiting … waiting for the final candidate to emerge from the fray.
And without missing a beat, Corbett’s decision to take government out of the gay marriage debate just sucked out all the air from the Wolf campaign.
And with bad blood felt from Wolf’s competitors, don’t expect the super loyal Schwartz or McCord activists to rally around the newly crowned Democratic nominee. - Philly.com, 5/21/14
The big problem with Featherman's argument is Corbett shifted towards the center too late in the game and only dropped his appeal on the same-sex marriage ban and the voter ID laws after public pressure and poor polling numbers. He also came out in support of medical marijuana extraction after State Senator Daylin Leach (D. PA) threatened a sit-in with the families of sick children. Had Corbett taken a page from Governor John Kasich's (R. OH) book, it might be a different story. Kasich agreed to expanding Medicaid last year and went past his own party to do so. Corbett didn't agree to the full Medicaid Expansion that's part of the ACA. Voters are still pissed at Corbett for a number of reasons and they haven't forgotten:
http://articles.philly.com/...
After three-plus years in office, the Republican former prosecutor is known for education cuts, refusing to expand Medicaid, declining to tax gas drillers, pushing voter ID, trying to privatize the lottery and offending women, Hispanics and gays with public gaffes that drew national attention.
This in a state where Democrats favor more school funding, expanded Medicaid, a tax on drillers, no voter ID and no privatization and outnumber Republicans by more than 1 million votes, including significant blocs of women, Hispanics and gays.
At the same time, Corbett so far has failed to get two of his three priorities - pension reform, liquor reform - through a Legislature of his own party, and managed to alienate Penn State Nation in connection with the Jerry Sandusky case and the firing of Joe Paterno.
Corbett did get a $2 billion transportation bill for bridges, highways and SEPTA. But it hikes vehicle fees and wholesale gas prices, irritating some conservatives who say it breaks Corbett's 2010 pledge of no new taxes, no new fees.
He's angered the left, disappointed the right and stayed largely aloof from the public.
You can see why he polls around "you've got to be kidding" and is rated America's most vulnerable governor. - Philly.com, 5/21/14
And while voter turnout was low from both parties on primary day, here's something that should really make Corbett nervous:
http://www.politicspa.com/...
More Republican voters cast a ballot for Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley than Governor Tom Corbett on primary night.
26,868 GOP voters* either wrote in another candidate or left the ballot for Governor blank. Overall, Corbett underperformed Cawley by 7%.
The map below shows which counties had the highest rates of undervoting. Cawley outdid Corbett in 59 counties, they tied in one, and Corbett enjoyed a lead in 7.
Corbett performed relatively worst in Elk County, where 24% of Republicans cast ballots for Cawley and not him. He did best in Northampton County, where he overperformed Cawley by 6%.
His undervote was 7% in his home County of Allegheny, and 9% in Cawley’s home County of Bucks.
In the two counties that saw the highest number of GOP ballots cast, Montgomery and Lancaster, Corbett’s undervote was a mere 2%.
Perhaps in a demonstration of the hometown factor for Democratic nominee Tom Wolf, 14% of York County Republicans who voted for Cawley did not vote for Corbett. - PoliticsPA, 5/22/14
Central Pennsylvania turned it's back on Rick Santorum (R. PA) in 2006 and it looks like it's going to happen to Corbett in 2014. Not to mention Wolf knows how to present himself to the voters:
http://wnep.com/...
Wolf’s vehicle became a star of the primary election, even part of Wolf’s victory celebration Tuesday night.
Is it Wolf vs. Corbett in November and Jeep vs. Dodge Ram?
Wolf rode to victory Tuesday night and so did his Jeep. His vehicle became a sidekick of sorts during his campaign for the Democratic nomination, even making an appearance at his victory party in York.
And Jeep owners in our area noticed.
“I saw him this morning him on the TV driving around without his roof. I do it all the time in the summer and I love it,” said Anna Kuska of Union Dale
Wolf’s Jeep has been featured in his ads for months and Jeep owners have been noticing that, too.
Anna Kuksa of Union Dale has been driving her Jeep for years, just like Wolf, she feels a connection.
“It’s a basic vehicle and we all wave to one another and it’s like a little club.”
“I just thought it was kind of comical, because I own one and you see someone running for office driving one and making it part of their campaign,” said Leroy Weidow of Jackson.
It’s pretty clear that many Jeep owners feel part of a larger Jeep family, but is that enough to vote for fellow Jeep lover Tom Wolf?
“Possibly, he’s a regular guy, you know?” Kuksa added. - WNEP, 5/21/14
If you want to learn more about Wolf, check out his interview in the Jewish Exponent, it's worth a read:
http://jewishexponent.com/...
The DGA and the Pennsylvania Democratic Party are behind Wolf and are ready to help him win. Click here to donate and get involved with Wolf's campaign:
http://www.wolfforpa.com/