I'll take those odds. From The Princeton Election Consortium:
For now, here’s the snapshot (following my past methods): in an election today, Democrats would retain control of the Senate with about 67% probability. Think of the Senate in 2014 as Schroedinger’s Cat: in that closed box, it’s currently 1/3 dead*. That will change over time. We open the box on November 4th.http://election.princeton.edu/...
Sam Wang is considered one of the best pollsters in the business - he's up there with Nate Silver.
This is not to say we should be complacent - let's also win back the House. Cheers.
From Sam Wang a.k.a. mindgeek in the comments:
Hi, everyone. Sam Wang here.Here is the karmsy comment Wang basically agrees with:
Basically I agree with karmsy. Much of what happens in the coming five months will be closely linked to those factors, the Obama approve/disapprove number being foremost.
I have a detailed analysis at Politico which gets into these issues in detail. I also review several models: NYT's The Upshot, FiveThirtyEight (such as we know what it will be), and the Washington Post's The Monkey Cage.
Not so long ago, good pollsters were saying 50/50 chance on holding the Senate. It's improved since, I suspect because of Obamacare and perhaps employment and perhaps Democratic success at making Republicans appear obstructionist.Update 2:
Let's keep odds improving.
In the comments, wu ming asks mindgeek (Sam Wang) if it's possible to get a House prediction. Here is his response:
The House...a pain to analyze. You may have noticed an absence of House modeling from anyone. It's harder to do. I did it in 2010, forecast a GOP takeover (as did many people).
For 2014 I won't promise you anything...yet. In the meantime I suggest you check out Charlie Cook and HuffPollster. If cases where they give bottom-line estimates, those estimates are pretty reliable.