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Sad, but not completely unexpected news. Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York, has asked the Working Families Party to put Cuomo on their line. The WFP can still win, but things are a bit complicated from here in my opinion. Complicated as in a possible Republican Governor in New York.

This could pay off for us, it could pay off big. The Republican Party could be removed from state election boards and quite a few other things, as Kos has outlined. This is very, very high-reward. But it's also high risk, according to Siena:

The poll shows that Cuomo, a Democrat running for a second term, would handily defeat Astorino, the Westchester County Executive, by 30 percentage points, 58 percent to 28 percent.

But should a liberal candidate running on the union-backed WFP line run as well, Cuomo’s margin of victory falls to 15 percentage points.

The poll found that under that scenario, Cuomo would garner only 39 percent of the vote, with Astorino and the WFP candidate each earning 24 percent

Astorino is still unknown to 66% of voters, so he has room to grow.. Given the WFP candidate was known by 0% of the voters at this time so they have MORE room to grow or fall. But it must be noted that Palodino, Cuomo's 2014 opponent, managed to gather 33% of the vote. And with a perfect storm (For anyone not named Andrew Cuomo) forming, that may well be enough of the vote to win. Or Astorino could perceivably get more of the vote, which would make it even more possible.

Further complicating matters and adding to the storm is this little gem (Full credit to David Nir): Bill Samuels, a Progressive critical of Cuomo (Rightfully so) is running against Cuomo's running mate in a primary . Normally this wouldn't be an issue, but Cuomo is already on the ballot with the Independence Party with his preferred running mate, Kathy Hochul.

If Samuels wins the primary to be Cuomo's Democratic running mate, votes cast for the independence party (to my knowledge) WILL NOT count towards electing Cuomo if he has more votes as a Democrat, so some of his votes will quite literally be wasted and diminish Cuomo's final vote count, as well as that of the Democratic party line.

It's not inconceivable that if Samuels wins enough people would vote Independence to force Cuomo to lose. The question is whether Cuomo would manage to fall under BOTH the Republican and WFP tickets (The Republican would face a similar problem of splitting his party line's votes with the Conservative ticket) which would lose the Democratic Party its spot on election boards and state commissions. Do I see this as a realistic possibility? Absolutely. And while I don't think it's likely to happen, it's still possible.

I don't say any of this to get anyone's spirits down - I still think we could see Dem-WFP or WFP-Dem as the top two vote getters (So long as the GOP doesn't win the governorship we win with any of those three combinations). But this seems like an incredibly risky gamble, and it'd be a difficult balance to walk between making the WFP win by campaigning for them and not beating Cuomo up so much that the Democrats lose their major party status, or worse make it so that the vote is split so evenly that the GOPer slides through.

It's worth the gamble, in my opinion.. But for once I can honestly see why some progressives (De Blasio in this case) would want to go the safe route. Nobody wants to see a Paul LePage type situation in New York.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think it's as simple as (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bananapouch1, Mannie

    Cuomo is going to win regardless of which party line he's on, and now he owes deBlasio a favor.  

    Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

    by Loge on Fri May 30, 2014 at 07:57:13 AM PDT

    •  Eh. I'm skeptical. (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think that Cuomo's guaranteed victory here, and I don't think he'd make good on repaying any favors. He doesn't seem to enjoy de Blasio

      •  politics ain't beanbag, as they say (0+ / 0-)

        From your story:  "But should a liberal candidate running on the union-backed WFP line run as well, Cuomo’s margin of victory falls to 15 percentage points."

        +15 is pretty good.  If anything, a serious left wing third party candidate probably means Cuomo picks up R votes, a la Lierban for Connecticut.  

        It's also a possibility that WFP doesn't have a decent candidate other than generic lefty and de Blasio wants the devil he knows.  I'd be open to a challenge to Cuomo, but for all anyone knows, the WFP could nominate a total clown.  

        Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

        by Loge on Fri May 30, 2014 at 08:22:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Cuomo was +15 (0+ / 0-)

          Against a candidate 60% of the electorate didn't know and a candidate 100% of the electorate didn't know (Because WFP hasn't picked their candidate yet). Both of those candidates becoming more well known would drive his % down.

          •  Does Cuomo still have all the money? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody

            I mean, he could pull a Spitzer or something, but his numbers could also go up depending on when they start using a likely voter screen or the more voters learn about the other candidates.  A candidate 100% of the electorate doesn't know is not going to beat a well funded incumbent within 5 months, especially when competing for many of the same voters.  Perhaps voters respond positively to the WFP candidate because they don't perceive it as costing them anything without a serious Republican challenge, which may yet emerge.  

            Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

            by Loge on Fri May 30, 2014 at 09:06:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Nailed it! n/m (0+ / 0-)

      Never underestimate stupid. Stupid is how reTHUGlicans win!

      by Mannie on Fri May 30, 2014 at 02:46:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is a problem of Cuomo's own making. (4+ / 0-)

    He chose to govern like a Republican and help Rs keep the state senate.  

    Unlike the presidency, if Cuomo loses, the outcome is not so dire.  

    Perhaps a Cuomo loss would provide a good example.

    I'm not a New Yorker, so I don't vote.   I understand why DeBasio did what he did (he needs $$$ for NYC from the state).  

    No one but Cuomo put himself in this position.    

    Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

    by TomP on Fri May 30, 2014 at 08:15:12 AM PDT

    •  Correct. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TomP, ChuckChuckerson, Woody, Mannie

      Rob Astorino eeking out a win due to a WFP challenger (as highly unlikely as that would be) would be about as toothless as George Pataki was.

      Why?  Democrats control a supermajority in the state Assembly - and that isn't changing anytime soon.  Basically Shelly Silver would kick his ass.

      Additionally, because New York is so blue, the NY GOP doesn't have a huge Tea Party contingent to make it batshit crazy - because NY voters won't put up with that nonsense.  Sure, you get a few Tea Party loons from upstate, but they're a micro-minority with no power and no influence.

      So even on the extremely remote chance that Astorino wins, he's severely handicapped and won't be able to do much damage if any at all.

      There is little to no risk here, and the diarists concerns are unfounded IMO.

      "There was no such thing as a "wealthy" hunter-gatherer. It is the creation of human society that has allowed the wealthy to become wealthy. As such, they have an obligation to pay a bit more to sustain that society than the not-so-wealthy." - Me

      by Darth Stateworker on Fri May 30, 2014 at 10:27:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maybe de Blasio's statement (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rexxnyc, Woody

    Is to give the WFP political cover for nominating Cuomo.

  •  de Blasio is only going (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChuckChuckerson, Mannie

    "the safe route" so Cuomo will owe him one.

    Not that that makes me agree with the mayor - especially since Cuomo screwed him on the charter school issue and the universal Pre-K issue - but maybe the mayor feels that by trying to play peacemaker, he'' have some leverage to get Cuomo to come around on one or both of those issues.

    Secondly - any governor anywhere would love to be up +15 at this point in the game, so the chances of Astorino eeking out a win due to a WFP challenge are somewhere between "slim" and "none", and much closer to none.

    Even on the extremely remote chance it did happen - it's not like Silver is going to let him get away with much.  He'll break him in much the same way he broke Pataki.

    The risk is practically non-existent for the state in general. - Astorino would be practically toothless as a governor  The only real risk is to the WFP, and vicariously, to the NYS liberal movement, because if the challenge fails to pull the votes predicted away from Cuomo, it could make him stronger than ever, and being the vindictive shit that he is, he would likely work to crush the WFP out of existence.

    Frankly, that's a chance I'm more than willing to take, because a strong Cuomo for another 4 years will continue wrecking the state economically in the name of his plutocratic campaign donors, and allowing guys like this to remain in office like this and remain strong in the polls tends to help the GOP keep pulling the nations Overton window even further to the right.  That has to end, and if it takes a high risk maneuver to try to end it, so be it.  Democrats need to understand that the nation needs them to move left, and this could be a catalyst to show the Blue Dogs, the Turd Wayers, and the rest of the corporate friendly brand of Dems it's time to reverse course and move back leftward, or you risk alienating yourself from the base.

    "There was no such thing as a "wealthy" hunter-gatherer. It is the creation of human society that has allowed the wealthy to become wealthy. As such, they have an obligation to pay a bit more to sustain that society than the not-so-wealthy." - Me

    by Darth Stateworker on Fri May 30, 2014 at 10:38:17 AM PDT

    •  I'm not suggesting +15 isn't good. (0+ / 0-)

      I'm suggesting it's not truly +15 if he's on the ballot twice with different running mates, because only the line with the most vote for him would count - The other line would simply disappear.

      •  True. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mannie

        If he's on two different ballots with 2 different running mates, that could be problematic.  However, even then, I think the chance is extremely remote.

        However, I don't see the Independence party pulling enough votes to make the difference in such a situation.  They only got 146k last go round - that isn't nearly enough to make up for that +15.

        Additionally, the Independence Party is under heavy attack this cycle because, well, they're dirtier than shit.  They exist only for themselves, and people in the state are starting to realize that, because the press has started publishing articles about their shenanigans.

        Honestly, I don't even know why Cuomo agreed to take their line.  It was a stupid move.

        OTOH, if the WFP does nominate another candidate, I have a feeling Samuels won't try to primary Hochul, because the he'll recognize there is no need for a secondary attack from Cuomos left flank.

        "There was no such thing as a "wealthy" hunter-gatherer. It is the creation of human society that has allowed the wealthy to become wealthy. As such, they have an obligation to pay a bit more to sustain that society than the not-so-wealthy." - Me

        by Darth Stateworker on Fri May 30, 2014 at 11:18:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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