Hi everyone. I am the Campaign Manager and Suffolk County Coordinator for Patricia Maher, who is running for Congress against Peter King in New York's 2nd District. I personally have been a regular lurker around these parts for the better part of the last two years, but this is my first post so please cut me some slack. In the future, Patricia will post on here from this account as well, and both of us look forward to being part of the Kos community. The daughter of a WWII navy nurse and the niece of a Lt. Commander on the USS Intrepid, Patricia is a former union member and a Director of Development and Community Education for a non-profit whose mission was to educate the public about seizure disorders. She was responsible for supervising the Educational Outreach for both Nassau and Suffolk Counties and the liaison for the organization for community, civic and business organizations. I'm here to make the case that because of the recent redistricting and trends in our favor, the previously onerous Peter King is particularly vulnerable and can be beat. I also believe that Patricia Maher is the person that can pull it off. Here's how, after the jump.
Now about three weeks ago, StephenCLE made his Baseline House Rankings, and said this about the race in NY-02:
NY-2 – Patricia Maher vs Peter King-inc So far, we have 22 democrats in the House, and 0 republicans. That changes here. Peter King is one of the most popular republican incumbents in the whole nation. That explains how he won this district by 15+ last cycle even though Obama easily carried it. Patricia Maher is the democratic candidate, and she’s definitely a third tier selection. King shouldn’t have much trouble returning to Congress. Rating – Safe R
With all due respect to StephenCLE, I strongly disagree with his assessment. To begin, Patricia is not a "third tier" selection. Being a former union member, she has a strong rapport with other union members, as well as with veterans organizations. She also ran a primary for county legislator three years back, received the endorsements of her union (CSEA 830), the Long Island Federation of Labor, Newsday, the Nassau County PBA, and the NYC PBA and won with 60% of the vote. She was also instrumental in pushing the Nassau County Legislature to raise the legal age of purchasing tobacco from 18 to 19, thereby keeping it out of the hands of high schoolers. But to get the big picture of this race, we need to take a number of factors into account. First, the redistricting: after the 2010 Census, King's district shifted from the 3rd to a newly redrawn 2nd. While his old district was reliably Republican, with King winning between 60%-70% of the vote on a regular basis (the only exception was in 2006 with well-funded challenger David Mejias, with King winning 56-44), this new district is much different. You see, the district is far more Democratic than it was previously, good for a Cook PVI of R+1. It was won by Obama by four-point margins both in 2008 and 2012. And King's Democratic opponent in 2012, Vivianne Falcone, only managed to raise $10,000 in a limited campaign, yet garnered roughly 40% of the vote in an election held only days after Hurricane Sandy devastated the region and moved election sites, depressing turnout. Compare to 2010 in King's old district, where the challenger only received 28% of the vote. A notable fact here is that Falcone won Suffolk County by roughly 3,000 votes. Additionally, many people who were formerly in Steve Israel's or Tim Bishop's districts were unaware that King was their new representative after redistricting. Imagine what more awareness, funding, and an earlier start to the campaign can do for us in this district. Although King has name recognition in the parts of his district that were part of his old one, much of the area has only vaguely heard of him despite the fact that he has declared a 2016 presidential run and has made several trips to New Hampshire over the past year or so. Formerly a hardliner on immigration, King has softened his tone somewhat, making token outreaches to Latino communities that have just been put into the district and has recently come out in favor of immigration reform with certain caveats. He has never sent out press releases in favor of immigration reform but chooses to send a letter to the Speaker of the House. King seems reluctant to stray beyond his base, both geographically and demographically. King has recently become unpopular with his right flank, including the Tea Party and libertarians, regarding his attacks on Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, his hawkish foreign policy and his support for the NSA wiretapping. This is particularly evident on the comment thread on his Facebook page (where insults of "RINO" and far worse abound), as well as a Tea Party protest outside his office late last year. There is no reason why this district cannot be a competitive race. King has enough of a history for us to have an extensive oppo file on him. As an upstart challenger, Patricia hopes to take advantage of these shifts by emphasizing populist stances that resonate with both the left and the right, while attacking King on his hypocrisies, exposing how his public image and statements do not match up with his voting record, and exploiting weaknesses that serve as wedge issues for his base. Her policy priorities are fighting for the middle class by expanding Social Security, putting an end to free trade agreements that have outsourced jobs overseas, and raising the minimum wage. Locally, she wants to increase federal funding to help small businesses on main street succeed in this economy, to create effective anti-drug education efforts for our children, and to cut the red tape to speed up the rebuilding process after Hurricane Sandy. In short, she wants Long Island to prosper and be affordable again. Please like Patricia's Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/VOTEMAHER and also consider contributing to her campaign at https://secure.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/37150 Let's make Long Island 100% Blue.