If Democrats retake the House in November, those new seats will come from different pools of seats, now held by Republicans, that, for reasons that differ from one pool to the next, are vulnerable to being flipped from red to blue. For example, since the reelection of President Obama in 2012, everyone who cares to know has known about one such pool of seats, where three quarters of the 18 GOP seats the Democrats need to retake the House are located. The common vulnerability of the Republicans in these seats stems from one particular fact common to their districts. Fourteen seats, that in 2014 could help Democrats close that gap with House Republicans, were won by Republicans in 2012 in districts that also voted to give President Obama a second term.
These numbers aren't secrets. Daily Kos covered the returns,
here. These Obama Plus Republican House Districts lie in a number of states, in various regions, from coast to coast and border to border. Their only common thread is President Obama having won the districts when Republicans won or held the seats in 2012.
Now, with primary match-ups increasingly becoming settled and only about twenty weeks until the election, it becomes increasingly relevant to take a district by district look at the prospects for pick-ups by the Democrats in these districts. Given how much information there is to look at, and the need to refine that look as the election looms closer, this will require a series of posts, which will look at one race at a time, in each of the fourteen OPRHD's, progressing around the country, state by state. California and New York both have three such districts, several states host one or two. Obviously, most states have no such districts. Posts in this series will also discuss changes in outlook or relevant breaking news in these races in districts previously discussed.
Come out into the tall grass for a closer look at the first post of this series, looking at a district in Central California, where, two years ago, voters around Modesto re-elected President Obama by +3.6%, but gave their freshman Republican Congressman a second term, too. There may be some encouraging news for Democrats in this and other such districts.
Part One, California Tenth
First up, California's Tenth Congressional District and its Republican incumbent, sophomore Jeff Denham, who benefits from the smallest positive OPRHD differential in California, at +3.6.
The District
California 10th CD
This district is located due East of San Francisco and San Jose, in the San Joaquin Valley, California's most productive agricultural country, aka
"the Nation's Salad Bowl". Centered on Modesto, this part of California displays an historical tendency to send Republicans to Congress, but isn't ruby red.
The incumbent Republican is the aforesaid Jeff Denham, a soggy bit of flotsam swept into the House in the 2010 Republican wave election that gave the House Speakership to John Boehner and started so much mischief for America.
The Foe
Jeff Denham, R-CA
Congressman Denham, most ways, is just another extremist Republican in what has turned out to be the most supremely dysfunctional Congress of the modern era.
According to VoteSmart.org, Mr. Denham gets 100% marks from the the National Right to Life Committee and other groups fighting against women's access to reproductive healthcare, and a corresponding 0% from Planned Parenthood Action Fund, 0% from the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and 0% by the American Nurses Association, for example. Earlier this year, believing Congressman Denham to be potentially vulnerable, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee unleashed robocalls in his district, mocking Congressman Denham, along with twenty other vulnerable Republicans in theirs, for nearly 50 Obamacare repeal votes. Mr. Denham has
supported the awful budget ideas of Paul Ryan. His public statements make clear that the Congressman considers programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (along with Obamacare, of course) to be repellent socialistic welfare giveaways, to be reformed, by which he means, stamped out and scavenged by the private sector. He is an enemy of climate science, most recently supporting the idiotic Republican measure to prohibit the Defense Department from spending money to act upon readiness for conditions predicted by climate science.
Given the agricultural dominance of CA-10 and the importance of Hispanic voters in the San Joaquin Valley, perhaps it is no surprise that Congressman Denham has split with some extremists in the GOP on one issue, and, on another, signature issue for the GOP, has split with virtually all other Republicans in the House. Mr. Denham broke away from the fiscal hawks and hardline government haters in the House Republican caucus to side with his agribusiness masters in support of the controversial, corporate welfare laden Farm Bill that Speaker Boehner had so much trouble shepherding through the Republican Caucus. The Farm Bill continues a hurricane force blast of corporate welfare blowing through the Congressman's district. Opposing the Farm Bill, and its defeat, could have badly damaged the Mr. Denham. 89 Democrats voted for the Farm Bill and 68 Republicans voted against it. There is a large, bipartisan appetite for corporate pork.
Where Mr. Denham most truly, madly, deeply broke ranks with other Republicans
is over immigration reform. Last October, Jeff Denham became the first, and remains virtually the only Republican in the House to sign on as a co-sponsor of H.R. 15 the House version of Comprehensive Immigration Reform passed by the Senate. His is the rare Republican voice on the Hill who will speak about immigrants in terms of paths to citizenship instead of denunciations of amnesty.
This is so out of step for a Republican member of the House that it looks like a Hail Mary Pass and smells of desperation. Congressman Denham must be reacting to concerns about how taking the typical Republican position, and opposing comprehensive immigration reform might erode his general election prospects in his heavily Hispanic district. Still, it is difficult to see how supporting reform will help Mr. Denham much in November. No matter his personal position on the issue, his support of a Republican House majority keeps a party in power that will never let the reforms happen. Also, Speaker Pelosi and Democrats are circulating a Discharge Petition on H.R. 15. Congressman Denham has not signed it, nor has any other Republican. The Democrat, in November, can beat up Congressman Denham as a hypocrite on immigration reform so long as Mr. Denham stays off of the Discharge Petition.
Our Hero
Michael Eggman is the likely Democrat in the race after today's California Primary. Mr. Eggman's official campaign website is kind of vague and incomplete (I couldn't find anything about reproductive rights or LGBT issues, for example). It is full of mushy talk about bipartisanship and third way compatible gibberish about working together to solve problems. I fear
he may be a deficit hawk austerian. He says things that worry me he could be trouble for better policy from Democrats on tax and regulatory matters. Still, he is a Democrat, dammit, and Democrats need a bigger caucus in the House.
It helps, too, that the Progressive Change Campaign Committee has endorsed Mr. Eggman in CA-10 (Sorry, no Donate Function in this image). He must have answered some of their questions right. It helps that the DCCC is doubling down on its robo calls mentioned above and going in with a $1.1 television buy out of Sacramento, targeting the Republican incumbent and running from Oct. 21 to Nov. 4. It helps that even though the incumbent is out raising the challenger $3 to $1, Mr. Eggman's fundraising success has been considerable and promising. In their most recent FEC filings, through May 14, the incumbent, Mr. Denham had raised $1,852,273 and held $1,550,888 cash on hand. Mr. Eggman had raised $679,081 and held $452,453. Neither candidate has self-funded or lent the campaign money, so far.
Democratic Candidate Michael Eggman, CA-10
The support for Mr. Eggman from the DCCC surprises no one.
Mr. Eggman was specifically recruited by the committee to run against the possibly vulnerable incumbent Republican. More important, perhaps, than even all of the money and the support from national organizations, is the reason that DCCC recruited this guy in the first place: his terrific local story.
Turlock born and bred Michael Eggman represents the heart and soul of family farming in the San Joaquin Valley, where he grew up and now continues the almond groves and apiaries that have sustained his family for generations on a small orchard and farm. Michael Eggman is a bee keeper. He travels with his bees all over the area, doing business with all kinds of farms and getting to know, by sight, the face of agriculture and life in the Valley. Mr. Eggman is a political newcomer, running for office for the first time. He is coming to the campaign trail directly from reality.
The Republican incumbent, Jeff Denham, has a story standing in rather stark contrast. He has been running for office for 14 years and has served, first in the California Senate, then the U.S. House, continuously since 2002. During those same years, he has somehow found the friends and connections and customers to build a large business that rents and sells plastic crop handling pallets, crates, tubs, bins, trays, etc for use by agribusiness. His company's website promotes the use of its products as a healthier choice than biodegradable alternatives like wood and fiber.
The image of the Democrat, a garrulous, man of the people, stepping up to become a citizen legislator, an itinerant beekeeper, who knows when every crop blossoms on every farm in the Valley, seems rather appealing. It is certainly more so than Jeff Denholm's story, of the influence besotted professional pol, merchant of indestructible (if allegedly recyclable)k, planet poisoning, wildlife choking death-plastic.
Many positives of Michael Eggman's campaign make his election in November a genuine possibility. Given Jeff Denham's apostasy on fundamental Republican dogma on issues like immigration reform and budget austerity, one wonders how much outside help this particular Republican is going to get from Rove and the Koch's and the other billionaire meddlers who might prefer to drop their dime on other more conformist extremists in the House Republican Caucus.
The Pundits, Polls and Probabilities
Charlie Cook is still reporting this seat as lean Republican, no doubt a conservative and prudent call.
Roll Call sees it the same way. A
contributor here at Daily Kos pegged the race at likely Republican just four months ago.
No public polling results on a general election match-up between Jeff Denham and Michaell Eggman have been located as of this time. But with a candidate with an appealing story and no record to attack, with major outside national support and a real ability to raise money on his own, Michael Eggman and the Democrats are turning CA-10 into the battlegroundthat it should be for 2014.
The Ask
Every single one of the 14 districts that this series of posts will cover will more likely flip over to the Blue side if our Democratic candidates are well funded. Don't look for progressive perfection in these candidates, because I don't think we will find much of that. But every Democrat doesn't have to be a progressive in order to put the Speaker's Gavel into much more progressive hands. The first order of business is to regain control of the House. So, for each race covered here, starting with
Michael Eggman, if you can, send a couple of bucks along to help. If you can't, have a great day and maybe next time.
What's Next?
Coming next: A look at the California 21st Congressional District, where Republican incumbent David Valadao is facing a district that re-elected President Obama with a margin over Mitt Romney of +11.1% two years ago.