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Today is the biggest election night until November. Eight states are on tap: Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. You can check out our primary preview here. Polls start to close at 8:00 PM ET and we'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections.

Got any predictions for tonight's races? Post them here!


What will happen tonight in the Mississippi GOP Senate primary?

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| 503 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mopshell, Zack from the SFV

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 07:00:18 AM PDT

  •  My only prediction ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ... is that after today, there will be a run-off between Cochran and McDaniel.

  •  California State District 26 (6+ / 0-)

    I'm hoping Sandra Fluke makes it into the top two - she really is impressive.

  •  Polls are wrong on MS-Sen, IMO (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, clevelandpacha

    Cochran beats McDaniel somewhat comfortably. Whether he avoids a runoff is a close call, but I say yes.

  •  Can I win a prize? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, LinSea


    MS-Sen: Too close to call, either McDaniel edges Cochran narrowly or Cochran edges McDaniel narrowly. A McDaniel win here is ideal.

    MS-04: Dems could vote in the GOP primary to help Gene Taylor considering nothing is really happening on their side but I predict Palazzo beats Taylor 60-40 or somewhere around that.

    AL-06: Runoff between establishment Paul DeMarco and Tea Partier Chad Mathis

    NJ-03: A Lonegan win would be ideal. I predict MacArthur beats him but not as big a margin as polls would indicate.

    NJ-12: This is between Coleman and Greenstein, I predict a narrow Greenstein win.

    SD-Sen: Mike Rounds should win with about 60% here.

    NM-Gov: Gary King wins the primary here, but embarrassingly barely.

    IA-01: Pat Murphy and Rod Blum both win here.

    IA-02: Miller-Meeks has the name recognition over Lofgren.

    IA-03: I believe this is between Matt Schultz and Brad Zaun. Both have a name recognition advantage. I will give Zaun the edge.

    MT-Sen: Walsh and Daines both win their primaries fairly comfortably.

    MT-AL: Not enough polling in this race at all. This is between Zinke, Rosendale, and Stapleton. I'll give Zinke the edge since he has raised the most money.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 07:50:21 AM PDT

    •  Continuation (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Darth Jeff, LinSea, Zack from the SFV

      CA-Gov: Brown and Kashkari win here.

      CA-07: Bera and Ose win here.

      CA-15: Swalwell and Corbett win here.

      CA-17: Honda and Rhanna win here.

      CA-21: Valadao and Renteria win here.

      CA-24: Capps and Fareed win here.

      CA-25: Strickland and Rogers win here.

      CA-31: Ugh. We better not screw this up again. I predict Chabot and either Aguilar or Gomez Reyes advance.

      CA-33: God this is so unpredictable. I predict either Gruel or Lieu win one spot and Williamson wins the other.

      18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

      by SCDem4 on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 07:55:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  CA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        CA31, Chabot 1st and Aguilar 2nd. CA33, Carr 1st and Lieu 2nd. Otherwise, what you said.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 08:40:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think we'll screw up CA 31 again (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        Everyone now know's it is possibility. Last cycle the party was worried about CA -26 being the seat where Dems would get shut out from. So much so they paid little attention to CA 31.

        Thankfully we have more than 2 GOPers running and all of them lack the name recognition and funds that Miller and Dutton had.

        "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

        by lordpet8 on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 12:37:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I think Cochran has this... (0+ / 0-)

    If he was actually in trouble, we'd be hearing about it in the political media, and it's been crickets.  If McDaniels manages to win, it will be a surprise to everyone, since I'm not seeing the Politico freakout that would be expected if Cochran was really in trouble.

    "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

    by LordMike on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 08:06:57 AM PDT

  •  Let's see, McDaniel over Cochran to a runoff (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    MS-04 Palazzo crushes Taylor
    CA-Gov Donnelly advances narrowly to lose to Brown
    CA-07 Ose advances to lose to Bera
    CA-17 Honda and Khanna advance to round 2
    CA-25 Knight and Strickland advance, shutting us out
    CA-31 Aguilar and the Republican or Gomes Reyez advance, Baca does poorly
    CA-33 Really no clue, wouldn't be shocked by Lieu/Grueul
    IA-01 Pat Murphy wins Dem nod
    IA-03 Was going to say Monte Shaw wins but he ran out of time despite Grassley's backing, so either Schultz or Zaun if we're lucky
    MT-AL haven't followed that one closely
    NJ-03 MacArthur over Lonegan
    NJ-12 Watson-Coleman over Greenstein
    NM-Gov Webber or Rael over Gary King
    SD-Sen Rounds without a runoff (threshold 35%)

  •  My predictions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, Zack from the SFV

    Brown - 52%
    Donnelly - 20%
    Kashkari - 18%

    Ernst - 40%
    Jacobs - 24%
    Whitaker - 12%

    Murphy - 37%
    Kajtazovic - 21%
    Vernon - 19%

    Young - 29%
    Zaun - 27%
    Cramer - 17%

    McDaniel - 51%
    Cochran - 43%

    Walsh - 70%
    Bohlinger - 23%

    Zinke - 40%
    Rosendale - 33%
    Stapleton - 27%

    MacArthur - 52%
    Lonegan - 47%

    Watson Coleman - 43%
    Greenstein - 24%
    Chivukula - 23%
    Zwicker - 9%

    King - 31%
    Morales - 29%
    Lopez - 22%
    Webber - 10%
    Rael - 8%

    Rounds - 80%
    Bosworth - 18%

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 09:14:21 AM PDT

  •  More California predictions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacques Kallis

    Governor:  Jerry Brown 52% vs Tim Donnelly 19% (Kashkari 17% after wasting $2 million of his own money. Dumbass!)

    CA Sec of State: Alex Padilla (D) vs Pete Peterson (R) (But Derek Cressman, former head of CA Common Cause, is the best candidate)

    CA Controller: John Perez (D) ve Ashley Swearingin (R) but Betty Yee (no relation to Leland "gunrunner" Yee) is the best candidate. Betty Yee currently serves on the Board of Equalization (CA's elected tax board) and has lots of experience with government finance. She is a progressive grassroots candidate, but Perez has the money to be on television...

    And the fun stuff. The most interesting races are near the bottom of the ballot.

    CA-25 Lee Rogers vs Tony Strickland

    CA-31 Pete Aguilar vs Eloise Gomez Reyes

    CA-33 Ted Lieu vs that GOP dude (Carr)

    L.A. County Supervisor #1 (East L.A. County, SGV): Hilda Solis wins tonight (more than 50% wins in nonpartisan races).

    L.A. Supe #3 (West L.A., SFV):  Sheila Kuehl vs Robert Shriver

    L.A. Assessor: Jeff Prang ahead of who the hell knows or cares

    L.A. Sheriff: Jim McDonnell (aka Chief Quimby) ahead of Jim Hellmold (yes that is really his name...)

    Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

    by Zack from the SFV on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 09:15:13 AM PDT

  •  predix (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    Cochran and what'shisnugget  in a run-off in MS-Sen

    McArthur wins over Logarithm in NJ-03

    King fails to achieve coronation in NM-Gov

    Rounds goes a whoopin in SD-Sen

    two dems in CA-31

  •  My strongest prediction - BWC in NJ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    I think Bonnie Watson Coleman is gonna win with about 43 percent of the vote, repeating the urban/suburban split seen with Bill Pascrell last cycle and Brendan Boyle this year. (This is one race where I personally like all the candidates - if I lived there I'd probably be undecided between her and far underdog scientist Zwicker, but that could easily change.)

    In New Jersey's other competitive primary I'll go with Lonegan in a squeaker, but that's mainly based on the fact that I really want him to win. I think Mississippi goes to a runoff, with McDaniels having a slight lead. In New Mexico I'll go with Rael, mainly because I have a vaguely pessimistic feeling about King's chances and his name reminds me of these guys. I'll take Donnelly for an upset in the California governor race, go out really far on a limb and say Ro Khanna's campaign ends tonight, and refrain from guessing about the rest of the California races because I have no clue about that state.

    And in the only competitive contested race I had the opportunity to vote in today, I'll say lawyer/rainmaker Roy Cho gets 82.5 percent of the vote against the nice lady from the creepy cult (because of her name recognition from running a few times before).

    "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

    by gabjoh on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 09:52:14 AM PDT

  •  June 3, 2014 Primary Predictions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    California: Jerry Brown wins Round 1 with 53%, followed by Kashkari at 19 and Donnelly at 18.

    Betty Yee beats John Perez for the second slot for Controller, and faces a Republican in the November runoff.

    Over in CA-31, Pete Aguilar and Eloise Gomez Reyes both make the general election runoff, the opposite of what happened in 2012.

    In CA-33, Wendy Greuel's name recognition from her mayoral loss gets her to second place, to face Republican Elan Carr in November.

    Iowa: Joni Ernst avoids the runoff and earns the right to lose to Bruce Brailey by low double digits in November.

    Mississippi: Cochran leads McDaniel 48-42 as they head to a runoff.

    New Jersey: The strongest candidates for each party emerge victorious in New Jersey, with MacArthur beating Lonegan by 5 points and Watson-Coleman besting Greenstein by 8.

    24, Male, CA- 12 currently. LA-02 & TX-08 originally, SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 12:17:44 PM PDT

  •  Watson-Coleman in NJ 12 (0+ / 0-)

    MacArthur in NJ-3.  Ernst outright in IA.  Cochran and McDaniel go to a runoff.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 02:17:25 PM PDT

  •  Can a Republican win in Mississippi? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Moderate Iowa Democrat

    Story from Cochran's first race.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 02:19:15 PM PDT

  •  Who should we be rooting for in which races? (0+ / 0-)

    that is, in Repub primaries, which one is crazier?

    and, in Democratic primaries, who is more likely to win in November?

  •  MS-Sen GOP primary (0+ / 0-)

    Who else is running in that primary besides Cochran and McDaniel?

  •  My p/ds: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    #IASen: Ernst 43.5%, Jacobs 34.8%, Clovis 15%, Whitaker 6.2%, Schaben 0.5%
    #MSSen: McDaniel 50.2%, Cochran (i) 48.4%, Carey 1.4%
    #SDSen: Rounds 68.7%, Bosworth 16.3%, Nelson 9.2%, Rhoden 6.7%, Ravnsborg 0.1%
    #MS04: Palazzo (i) 63.4%, Taylor 33.2%, others 4.4%
    #AL06: Mathis and Brooke make runoff. DeMarco 3rd.
    #NJ03:  Lonegan 52.1% MacArthur 47.9%
    #IA01: Blum 56.2%, Rathje 38.2%, Boliver 5.6%
    #IA03: Zaun 39.4%, Schultz 34.5%, Cramer, 12.2%, others 13.9%

    #IA01: Murphy 52.7%, Vernon 17.9%, Kajtazovic, 15.4%,
    Dandekar 11.2%, O'Brien, 2.8%
    #NJ12: Greenstein 42.8%, Chivukula 41.7%, Watson Coleman 12.8%, Zwicker 2.7%
    #NMGov: Rael 25%, King 24.7%, Lopez 19.9%, Morales 15.3%, Webber 15.1%

    California Top 2:
    #CAGov: Brown (D/i)'s in at 58.5%. Donnelly (R) takes the other spot at 20.2%. Kashkari (R) misses out with  17.4%, others 4.9%
    #CA07: Bera (D/i) 62% and Birman (R) 22.2% make the runoff. Ose (R) misses the runoff at 12.3%, Emken (R) 2.7%, others 0.8%.
    #CA17: Honda (D/i) 65.7% and Khanna (D) 22.2% make the runoff. Singh (R) and Vanlandingham combine with 12.1% to miss the runoff.
    #CA21: Valadao (R/i) and Renteria (D) make the runoff. Hernandez (D) misses out.
    #CA25: Strickland (R) 34.3% and Rogers (D) 30.2% make the runoff. Knight in 3rd with 29.7%, 5.8% others
    #CA31: Aguilar (D) 27.5% and Reyes (D) 26.4% make the runoff. Chabot (R) in 3rd with 23.6%, Baca (D) in 4th with 16.5%, 6% others.
    #CA33: Lieu (D) 20.4% and Williamson (I) 20.1% make the runoff. Greuel (D) in 3rd with 19.9%, Carr (R) in 4th at 19.5%, Miller (D) in 5th at 17.2%, others 2.9%
    #CASD26: Allen (D) and Fluke (D) make the runoff.
    Howorth (D) comes in 3rd and Butler (D) comes in 4th.

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