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Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett speaks at a news conference on the Penn State campus in State College, Pennsylvania January 2, 2013.  Corbett said he will file a federal lawsuit against the NCAA over sanctions it levied against Pennsylvania State Univer
The end is nigh for Tom Corbett
He's dead, Jim. PPP's new Pennsylvania poll, taken in the wake of businessman Tom Wolf's resounding win in the Democratic primary, shows Wolf pulverizing GOP Gov. Tom Corbett by an extraordinary 55-30 margin. That's a sizable increase on the already-serious 44-32 lead Wolf had back in November, the last time PPP tested the general election.

And while the primary did turn somewhat negative toward the end, Wolf has emerged looking good, with a strong 47-20 favorability score. Even Republicans don't particularly dislike him, giving him a 29-32 rating, and 24 percent say they'll vote for him. Corbett, meanwhile, sports incredibly dreadful job approvals of just 27 percent positive to a whopping 58 negative. (His cuts to education funding and his mishandling of the Penn State sexual abuse scandal are key reasons for his deep unpopularity.) What incumbent could possibly win with numbers like that?

So the real question at this point is whether the Republican Governors Association's own polling looks anything like PPP's—in other words, whether Corbett gets triaged now, or if Republicans hold out any hope of resuscitating him. But unless PPP is way, way off, it's hard to see how this corpsicle can be revived.

And if Corbett does get left for dead, the real worries for the GOP then move downballot. Democrats are hopeful they can take back the legislature, particularly the state Senate, where Republicans hold a relatively slim 27-23 edge. It's certainly no easy task, particularly in a midterm year, but with Corbett looking like serious deadweight at the top of the ticket, it's definitely within reach, and 2014 could be a very good year for Pennsylvania Democrats.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 09:59 AM PDT.

Also republished by Pittsburgh Area Kossacks, Philly Kos, DKos Pennsylvania, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Corbett makes Tom Ridge look like Kropotkin /nt (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Smoh, Mostel26, wishingwell, Aunt Pat

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "If we appear to seek the unattainable, then let it be known that we do so to avoid the unimaginable." (@eState4Column5)

    by annieli on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 10:06:23 AM PDT

  •  You Might Want To Fix The Title Typo nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gizmo59, Aunt Pat

    On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

    by stevemb on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 10:10:15 AM PDT

  •  This election (11+ / 0-)

    is the Democrats' to lose.  And while, after seeing this poll, I am encouraged to think that Corbett really has no hope of re-election, it's not beyond possibility that the Democrats could, in fact, screw it up.

    Beside the Governor's race, it really is crucial that the Democrats take hold of at least one house of the state legislature--not an easy task given how the GOP has gerrymandered the districts.  However, the Senate is within reach, and I have hope.

    -5.13,-5.64; GOP thinking: A 13 year path to citizenship is too easy, and a 5 minute background check is too burdensome. -- 1audreyrenee

    by gizmo59 on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 10:19:46 AM PDT

  •  You can look away if you like....didn't (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Corbett say something to that effect?

    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

    by tuma on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 10:32:01 AM PDT

  •  Gosh....maybe he can make it hard for people to (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hamtree, davidincleveland

    vote.

    •  He gave up the fight on the voter ID law after (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, mmacdDE

      spending millions of taxpayer dollars fighting in court.

      IN fact, an article in a local paper said that Corbett spent over 16 million dollars on losing court cases on marriage equality, voter Id, and privatization of liquor and lottery.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 05:55:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Corbett is (9+ / 0-)

    going to learn a hard lesson....don't piss in JoePa's cereal.

    PSU fans are going to punish him for his malfeasance as DA in the Sandusky case.

    They need someone to blame, and it aint going be JoePa.
    And they are Corbetts base in the first place.

    Now? Wolff will drink his base.

  •  Yahoo! (4+ / 0-)

    Virtually tipped. :)

    Obama is the most progressive president in my lifetime.

    by freakofsociety on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 10:47:01 AM PDT

  •  rasmussen (7+ / 0-)

    Had a poll diaried a couple of days ago with wolf up twenty.  Good to see any even better number from a reputable pollster.

  •  We need a win that big (10+ / 0-)

    to get back control of the PA Legislature.

    PA State Senate has been red since 1994.  PA State House has been a bit more divided, with a blue period from 2007-2010, but has also been red since then.

    I proudly voted for Tom Wolf in the primary and I'm excited that he has such a large lead.  We need to make sure Wolf brings coattails to the race.

    I think Republicans are going to regret keeping Corbett on the ballot after all.  He screams Jon Corzine all over again (and as someone born and raised in NJ, I know that first hand).  Nobody likes Corbett, and this is before the attack ads start playing, particularly one where he tells women to "close their eyes" if they don't want to watch while being transvaginally invaded...

    "Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

    by mconvente on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 10:59:51 AM PDT

    •  Does anyone know how recruiting for the state (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, Hamtree, Mostel26

      senate has gone? A pick up of two seats and lt. gov. would give Democrats control of it by 25-25. And a wave election might, if not win the state House, at least make it closer (currently R110 D93. Pick up 5 seats and it would be R105 D98, close enough to make deals.

      •  recruited many women Dems for House and Senate (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, mconvente, wishingwell

        Back when it looked like the race was Rep Allyson Schwartz's to lose, the Dems recruited women for House and Senate seats, with a long range plan in mind.  

        Step. 1:  Pick up some seats this year with Allyson top of the ticket as the first woman Governor, bringing out women Dem voters who tend to vote only in Pres election years.

        Then two years from now in 2016, Step 2, nominate even more women to House and Senate seats as Dem Pres nominee Hillary Clinton brings out low-turnout women voters who want to elect the first woman President.

        Wolf, being a "non-politician" against a flawed war-on-women Republican incumbent, may still be able to pull off a version of step 1.  

      •  We're going to probably lose two... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, Hamtree, Adam B, mconvente, Mostel26

        Senate seats at least, 32 and 38, due to retirements in hostile territory in Southwestern Pennsylvania.  The former simply due to the political evolution of the region, and the latter due to the combination of a Republican and Democratic district a Western PA district shifted to Eastern PA.

        That said, the new district drawn around Monroe County (40) should favor us mildly.  Districts 6, 10, 12, 16, 24, 26, and 44 are all competitive districts as well, most of which were won by Obama in 2004, in some cases by wide margins.  They're all within the Philly suburbs, and hopefully a coordinated GOTV effort could swing the lot of them.  

      •  PA-26..........great candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Adam B, mconvente

        We have John Kane running here in PA Senate-26. Moderate, and I mean that, Republican Ted Erickson is retiring and the local GOP put up a current county council member as their anointed successor. Corbett is going to lose Delco by at least 40%. That leaves a ton of ground for any Republican to make up. I'm hoping it has an impact.

        We also, in the PA House, have a chance for a pickup in PA-163. The district was made more Republican in the Gerrymander, but it should be a strong target. The Democratic candidate, Vince Rongione, is running against another Republican party anointed hack who is a current Upper Darby Township Council member.

  •  Again, why did they not primary him? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, Mostel26

    Not only is he going to lose big, he may well drag a bunch of other Republicans with him.

  •  Philly on one end, Pittsburgh on the other.... (0+ / 0-)

    Alabama in between. We will see.

    The things I want to know are in books; My best friend is the man who'll get me a book I ain't read.- Abraham Lincoln

    by Mighty Ike on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 04:35:08 PM PDT

    •  Not so much, and besides... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      paulex

      ...nobody much lives here.

      It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

      by Rich in PA on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 04:48:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not necessarily, Penn State is in between and (5+ / 0-)

      that area is growing by leaps and bounds. There are almost 50k students on that campus plus well over 100 k who reside there and it has become more liberal over the years. Obama won Centre County because of State College and Penn State .   Everyytime I go to Centre County, there are new houses being built, more and more apartment complexes, new hotels, new stores, new businesses, place is growing.

      And Harrisburg is not exactly a red area either, I would say purplish to bluish and certainly not Alabama.

      I live in a Republican district but this area is also becoming more diverse and our Democratic party is growing.  When I first came here 15 years ago, there were so few of us Democratic activists, now there are a lot due to the growth of a local small college. ..also we live not far from Bucknell with a lot of liberal activists.

      My sister has lived in AL and GA and she said central PA is far more liberal than both and central PA is not the south, not even close.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 05:08:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, could he take some congressmen with him? A... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue jersey mom, Hamtree

    Wow, could he take some congressmen with him? At this rate, Pat Meehan is a goner, and maybe Charlie Dent too.

  •  I really don't understand Corbett's problem (0+ / 0-)

    It's not like PA is doing worse than other Republican-governed states, and it's not like the JoePa cultists are as strong as they imagine.  I'm glad to see him going down but it's kind of a mystery to me.

    It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

    by Rich in PA on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 04:47:47 PM PDT

  •  Good, he's completely worthless. n/t (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Aquarius40, Noamjunior

    "Really nice, but also very serious about his job." Jackie Evancho on President Obama 6/7/12

    by BarackStarObama on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 04:53:28 PM PDT

  •  Oy (0+ / 0-)

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 05:04:01 PM PDT

  •  This Penn State matter, all sides of it, is a huge (3+ / 0-)

    factor. Penn State alums, fans, students are all over this state. All sides of how Corbett handled it and what happened  has even Republicans we know saying they will stay home or hold their nose but never vote for that Asshole Corbett again. ..

    Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

    by wishingwell on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 05:17:22 PM PDT

  •  He can't be deader than Earnie Fletcher in KY. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    I remember the polls closed statewide by 7 EST and he gave his concession speech at 7:15 EST. It was the quickest election night I've ever seen.

    •  Yes I want it to be like Casey vs Santorum (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      where it was all over 5 minutes after the polls closed at 8.

      Man on Dog got squashed like a bug, not just beaten but Casey moped the floor with him .  

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Tue Jun 03, 2014 at 06:19:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I live in western PA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Orakio

    This, I believe is Corbett's problem.  PA is a conservative state (other than Philadelphia, itself).  It is highly socially conservative, and actually pretty economically conservative as well.  BUT, unions, particularly the teachers unions, are still relatively powerful, here.  Corbett's education agenda was squarely aimed at them.  

    The plan was to cut state education spending to the bone, then to give half of it back to the districts.  The districts (we have 499 of them, and they aren't by county like most states - there are 43 in Allegheny County, alone), were supposed to beat the other half out of the teachers.  But, the 499 school boards didn't play ball.  The districts found the money by cutting fat, getting smarter with spending, and raising taxes as much as they were allowed by law.  PA is also one of the few states that does not require a referendum for raising taxes, so long as you stay within an index that is tied to economic performance and inflation.

    Corbett and the state GOP didn't count on the fact that 499 school boards didn't want to take on the powerful teachers union and have disruptive strikes and parent/voter unrest.  So, the districts made cuts elsewhere, made due, and complained to high heaven.  Eventually, everybody was disgruntled because there was an education funding squeeze, we were all being asked to fill the gap or do without, and Corbett became the face of it all.

    All of that said, don't get your hopes up for a liberalization of PA, even if Wolf wins, and by some miracle, the Dems retake the Senate.  PA Dems are really not too much different from PA Republicans, especially at the state and local levels.  TRust me, they all talk a good game, but if the GOP in PA were so hardcore, we'd have privatized our ridiculous state liquor store system long ago.  And, if the Dems were so liberal, we wouldn't keep electing pro-choice Dems named Casey.  How liberal was the government under Ed Rendell or Bob Casey Sr.?  Not very.  The only real difference is that we never had a budget on time with Rendell, and we always have one with Corbett.

    BTW, it's a pretty good bet that if Wolf wins, the GOP will consolidate it's legislative control in 2016.  Hillary is popular in Pgh and Phil, but not in the other parts of the state, and state legislators are elected from all over the state, not just PGH and Phil (where the current Dems already hold seats).  And, if Hillary is president in 2018, expect a nationwide backlash/GOP wave in 2018 that might make 2010 look good for Dems.  Hillary is the most polarizing politician in America.  Period.  You think republicans have a hard time being "led" by a black man,...wait until that uppity old woman (re: bitch) starts trying to tell them what to do.  

    •  That's a good description of western PA but the... (0+ / 0-)

      That's a good description of western PA but the Philly suburbs are definitely not socially conservative and will give Hillary huge margins when she runs. The Philly suburbs are becoming more liberal by the day and are the part of the state that's growing. It's helping to offset exactly what you explain in your post.

      •  Yes, but... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        anonie1

        That won't matter for control of the state Assembly and Senate.  Most of those seats are already blue, or will be traded for pinkish districts in western, central, and south central PA.  I don't dispute that a Dem (hopefully not Hillary) will win PA in 2016, but I don't expect to see her coattails influence control of the legislature.  And, even if she does, the blowback will be pronounced in 2018.

        I think Wolf is going to be a pretty conservadem governor.  At the end of the day, he's a business guy, and not a career politician like our last Dem gov, fast-Eddie.  I could see Wolf being extremely popular, and working quite well with the GOP legislature to fix a lot of the Corbett problems.  Our GOP is not really that conservative, and our Dems are pretty corrupt (look how many of them are in jail - or going to jail), so a divided government can be good for PA.  You get a gas tax, adequate school funding, and lower property taxes and income tax.  Works for me.

        Also, the Philly area has an enormously outsized opinion of itself and it's influence.  At the end of the day, it's only really significant in presidential election years.  In off-year elections, those voters don't turn out.  That's why PA leg has been controlled by the GOP for most of the last two decades, and why we rarely (like once in the last forty years) elect a Dem senator.

    •  Corbett completely owns the education cuts, too. (0+ / 0-)

      Real or kabuki, the appearance of the rebellion of the nominally GOP legislature on the cuts means that he is the complete and total face of the education cuts, which have been extraordinarily visible.

      I think, too, part of what makes him more vulnerable to the optics of the cuts is that in most states, the GOP can plead it off on the teachers unions. But here, I think there's a problem with that: Before Corbett, we had one of the highest union membership rates in the nation. Further, there's a lot of steel and coal union retirees. Even here, in the empty zone between Altoona and Pittsburgh, when I drive into our tiny little town, the first thing that greets me is a Miner's union sign. I have a suspicion that tearing into the unions just isn't as effective here as it is in some other places. No verification, just a suspicion.  

      -- If corporations are people, is the stock market for the sale of slaves?

      by Orakio on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 05:57:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Top two issues with older voters: (0+ / 0-)

    No tax on extraction on natural gas
    Education cuts (1 BILLION)

    Corbett has lost the most solid voting block and he isn't getting it back. The Sandusky issue only adds to his negatives over the next few months and he has a budget due by June 30, that is going to be fucking disastrous, because tax revenues are down and we have a billion dollar deficit.

    Nobody here is talking about Cobett and the gas and oil companies, but it is a MAJOR issue. The failure to charge an extraction tax or put any significant legal or environmental controls in place while these companies are raping the land and cheating people and communities all over the state is criminal.

    "When people show you who they really are, believe them." - Maya Angelou

    by Pennsylvanian on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 07:22:50 AM PDT

  •  who would control house and senate (0+ / 0-)

    I am not surprised corbett is losing, as I expected it. what I want to know is, who controls the house and senate? I does no good for wolfe to win if there is a super majority that can override him.l

  •  Tom teabagger Corbett Is a 1-Term Governor (0+ / 0-)

    Corbett deliberately fumbled the ball in the Jerry Sandusky sex abuse case costing Penn State hundreds of millions of extra dollars that  prompt prosecution would have saved Pennsylvanians ($60 Milliom to settle 30 lawsuits, $60 Million in NCAA fines, $Millions in public relations damage control, NCAA sanctions on football recruiting, $Millions in legal fees, $Millions to former FBI director Louie Freeh for investigating the matter for the university, etc.).

    Corbett refused to tax the frackers.

    Corbett allowed the frackers initially to dump their toxic acid frack soup blowback "water" directly into rivers and streams that were drinking water sources for communities downstream.  (STUPID!)

    Corbett refused to expand Medicaid.

    Corbett hacked education budgets by $1 Billion and gave the money to the frackers to build a natural gas processing plant in the state.  The frackers are the most profitable and richest business entities in the history of the world which didn't need the corporate welfare.

    Corbett allowed the roads and highways to go to Hell (because he wouldn't tax the frackers and because revenue is down due to the unemployment problem in the state under his policies).

    Corbett ran dishonest tv ads lying to the people about how he and his wife are teachers who really care about education.

    Corbett ran more dishonest ads falsely claiming that he is working to improve Pennsylvania and the futures of all Pennsylvania -- he won't mention the huge deficit he is incurring because of his refusal to raise taxes, especially on his fracker buddies, which might cause the ratings agencies to lower Pennsylvania's credit rating.

    Corbett laid off half of the state's workforce because of the megafraud perpetrated by Wall Street thieves (like Goldman Sachs) -- the state teachers' union members get their pensions and cost-of-living allowances regardless of how well the money managers in Harrisburg do with investing all of those state pension funds, and the money managers screwed up royally.  Corbett was Pa. Attorney General then and should have sued the thieves over deceptive business practices, megafraud, and theft by deception.

    Corbett pushed for Voter Suppression legislation which was struck down by the Pa. Supreme court.

    Corbett hired private attorneys to pursue legal challenges to same sex marriage which the newly-elected Pa. Attorney General Kathleen Kane refused to do because of the blatant UNConstitutionality of outlawing it.  Corbett lost the case and the taxpayers' money litigating it.

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