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Mississippi Senator Chris McDaniel speaks during a town hall meeting in Ocean Springs, Mississippi March 18, 2014. The stars appear to have aligned for McDaniel, a state senator who is waging a primary battle against Thad Cochran, who is seeking his seven
Mississippi's Chris McDaniel appears headed to a runoff
Tuesday night's primaries were incredibly tense, and several races are still undecided, including the marquee Senate matchup in Mississippi. We've summarized all the action below (in alphabetical order by state), with Daily Kos Elections' race ratings appended. Note that in California, where many voters cast ballots by mail, lots of votes may still be outstanding. And also bear in mind that results of the top-two primary, which features a less Democratic-friendly electorate than is typical in the general election, aren't very predictive of what will happen in November.

AL-06 (R): State Rep. Paul DeMarco and former conservative think tank chief Gary Palmer will advance to the July 15 runoff, after winning 33 and 20 percent of the vote respectively. (Safe R)

CA-Gov (2): Democrats had hoped that ultra-conservative Assemblyman Tim Donnelly would emerge from the top-two, not because they're worried about Gov. Jerry Brown's chances (he took 54 percent), but because Donnelly would have acted like a major anvil to down-ticket Republicans. But former Treasury official Neel Kashkari managed to up his name recognition just enough to secure the second slot, beating out Donnelly 19 to 15. (Safe D)

CA-07 (2): Establishment Republicans are happy that their pick, ex-Rep. Doug Ose, handily beat out former congressional aide Igor Birman 27-17. But freshman Democratic Rep. Ami Bera took a healthy 47 percent. (Lean D)

CA-15 (2): First-term Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell easily advanced to the second round with 49 percent, but it's not yet clear who will join him there. Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett, a fellow Democrat who's been trying to run to Swalwell's left, is in third place at the moment with 25, just behind Republican Hugh Bussell, who has 26. Swalwell would very much like Corbett to get shut out, as this district is safely blue. (Safe D / Likely Swalwell)

CA-17 (2): As expected, it'll be a pair of Democrats in the fall: Rep. Mike Honda and former Commerce Department official Ro Khanna. But Honda looked strong, finishing far ahead of Khanna, 49-27. Khanna will spend vast sums trying to improve on that mark in November, but he has a tough climb ahead of him. (Safe D / Likely Honda)

Head below the fold for the rest of our recaps.

CA-21 (2): Democrats were fortunate that former congressional aide Amanda Renteria's superior campaign held off bumbling 2012 nominee John Hernandez 25-11. But GOP Rep. David Valadao took 64 percent, and while primaries are not necessarily prologue in California, that's a pretty high mark and illustrates the problems with Democratic turnout in this heavily Hispanic district. (Likely R)

CA-24 (2): Democratic Rep. Lois Capps is moving on to November with her 45 percent vote share, but Chris Mitchum has just a 16-15 edge on fellow Republican Justin Fareed. As is always the case in California, plenty of votes have yet to be counted. (Likely D)

CA-25 (2): Oof. In an embarrassing development, Democrat Lee Rogers was shut out of the general election in this blue-trending district, a development we feared might happen. November will instead see a fight between two Republicans, ex-state Sen. Tony Strickland and state Sen. Steve Knight, who finished with 29 and 28 percent respectively. (Rogers took 22.) (Safe R)

CA-31 (2): Last cycle, no Democrats managed to advance past the top-two in this 57-percent Obama district, a huge black eye for the party. This year, the race has once again given Democrats fits, and they're holding on to the second slot by a thread. Republican Paul Chabot easily captured first place with 27 percent, but Democrat Pete Aguilar, the DCCC choice, is ahead of Republican Lesli Gooch by a 17.4 to 16.5 margin at this point, or 390 votes. Another Democrat, Eloise Gomez Reyes, was just a bit further back at 16.0 percent, 232 votes behind Gooch. There were no obvious trends as votes came in on Tuesday night, but if Aguilar can't hang on, it would be a true disaster for Democrats, who should be heavily favored to pick up this seat. (Likely D)

CA-33 (2): There are no answers at all in the insanely crowded race to replace Rep. Henry Waxman, where vast sums were spent, most to little effect. Thanks to a sort of reverse clown car effect, Republican Elan Carr sits in first place with 21 in this very blue district, because so many Democrats split the vote. Two of them occupy the next two slots: state Sen. Ted Lieu, with 19 percent, and former Los Angeles City Controller Wendy Greuel, with 17. Either would be the overwhelming favorite in November. UPDATE: Greuel has conceded, so it'll be Carr and Lieu in the runoff. (Safe D)

IA-Sen (R): State Sen. Joni Ernst utterly crushed the competition, taking an outright majority of 56 percent. Radio host Sam Clovis finished a distant second with 18, and self-funding businessman Mark Jacobs, who was Ernst's co-frontrunner at one point, ended up a pitiful third with just 17. Ernst will now have to deal with Rep. Bruce Braley in the fight for retiring Sen. Tom Harkin's seat. (Lean D)

IA-01 (D & R): State Rep. Pat Murphy handily won the Democratic nomination, beating Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon 37-24, while three other candidates were in the teens or single digits. He'll face businessman (and 2012 candidate) Rod Blum, who dispatched businessman Steve Rathje 55-37, for Braley's open seat. (Lean D)

IA-02 (R): Ophthalmologist Marianette Miller-Meeks will try to unseat Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack for the third time, after beating state Rep. Mark Lofgren 49-38 for the GOP nod. (Likely D)

IA-03 (R): State Sen. Brad Zaun finished first in this six-way race with just 25 percent of the vote, falling far short of the 35-percent mark necessary to secure the nomination outright. Now, instead, it'll get thrown to a convention, which will take place on June 21, and anybody—not just the candidates who ran in the primary—can get nominated. It's anyone's guess as to who has the inside track with convention delegates, though Paulists have made serious inroads in the Iowa GOP. (Tossup)

MS-Sen (R): In an unbelievable photo finish after an insane number of lead changes on primary night, Mississippi's hotly contested Senate primary looks like it's going to a runoff. State Sen. Chris McDaniel currently leads Sen. Thad Cochran 49.53 percent to 48.92 percent, achingly close to the 50 percent mark that would have given him an outright win. (Some Dude Thomas Carey managed to pull in just enough of the vote—1.5 percent—to allow this to happen.) It doesn't appear that late-counted ballots can change the outcome, which means a runoff will take place very quickly, on June 24. It'll be intense. (Safe R)

MS-04 (R): After seesawing back and forth all night, Rep. Steven Palazzo pulled out a late 51-43 lead on ex-Rep. Gene Taylor, a former conservative Democrat trying to make a comeback as a Republican. That Taylor made the race as close as he did was quite a shock, but in the end, it looks like Palazzo held him off and managed to avoid a runoff. UPDATE: The AP has called the race for Palazzo. (Safe R)

MT-AL (R): In a race that was close all night, Ryan Zinke beat out Corey Stapleton 33-29 in the race for Rep. Steve Daines' open seat. Matt Rosendale finished just behind Stapleton, also with 29. Zinke will take on Democrat John Lewis in the fall. (Likely R)

NJ-03 (R): Sadly, Democratic efforts to meddle in the GOP primary were for naught, as former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur smashed former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 60-40 in the battle of the North Jersey carpetbaggers. MacArthur will try to hold Rep. John Runyan's seat for the GOP against Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard in November. (Lean R)

NJ-07 (R): Rep. Leonard Lance barely fended off penniless Some Dude David Larsen, prevailing by a rather weak 54-46 margin. Lance is relatively moderate for today's GOP, and this is actually the third occasion Larsen's challenged him, getting closer and closer each time. One day, someone with a little money will give Lance a run for his. (Safe R)

NJ-12 (D): Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson Coleman decisively won the primary for Rep. Rush Holt's open seat, defeating state Sen. Linda Greenstein 43-28. Assemblyman Upendra Chivukula finished third with 22. (Safe D)

NM-Gov (D): Even though he finished last at the state party convention, Attorney General Gary King rode his greater name recognition to a primary win, finishing with 34 percent to 23 for businessman Alan Webber, 20 for businessman Lawrence Rael, and 15 for state Sen. Howie Morales. King now has an uphill battle against GOP Gov. Susana Martinez in the general election. (Likely R)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 09:18 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  any estimate of remaining CA votes not yet count (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GayHillbilly

    counted?

    I could not find it on the state web site.

  •  Also SD-26 (16+ / 0-)

    It hasn't been officially called but it looks like Sandra Fluke will be advancing to the top two, assuming trends hold true that the late ballots favor dems (she's two points ahead of her closest competitor Stodder, the Independent).

    When I first started working on the campaign, a non Sandra Fluke supporter said he expected Sandra Fluke to not get more than 600 votes. Looks like he was off by alot!

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

    by Alibguy on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 09:42:24 AM PDT

  •  Susana Martinez, R gov of NM still too popular (5+ / 0-)

    despite significant erosion over her anti-teacher and anti-behavioral-health crusades.  (I know at least one teacher who used to donate to Mitt Romney and is now out campaigning for anyone-but-Martinez.)

    Gary King has been a decent and hard-working public servant as AG, but he's just not that much ofa performer or campaigner.  

    All very depressing.  We have two excellent D senators and 2 out of 3 D reps, but we're probably stuck with Martinez.

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 10:07:37 AM PDT

    •  Yes that is sad because NM seems to get bluer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lgmcp, lefthandedmomma

      each year and trending stronger Democratic with each passing year.  

      I have a feeling she will be on the short list for VP nominees depending on who gets the GOp nomination for President in 2 yrs. I have a feeling they will try to put a woman on the ticket and preferably a minority female.  

      So you can hope she quits her Governor's job to run as VP and then of course loses that election too along with the Republican candidate for President.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 04:15:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If not a Veep spot, then a cabinet-level position (0+ / 0-)

        if and when there is another Republican administration.  It's not like she's deeply attached to NM:  she can't wait to get kicked upstairs.  It'd suck for the nation, but give us a break locally.  

        "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

        by lgmcp on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 04:41:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes and I Hope she has to wait a long long time (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lgmcp

          for that cabinet position. We cannot afford another GOP President with the SCOTUS at stake ..and the economy and foreign policy too.

          Just the other day I was thinking how Bush made such a mess and it was such a disaster, it may take 20 plus yrs to clean up his mess. We have to hold onto the White House for at least 16 yrs to do the job of his cleanup.

          Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

          by wishingwell on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 07:01:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Spend that money in MS GOP... Spend that money!!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Empower Ink, blugrlnrdst

    The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

    by CTMET on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 04:14:18 PM PDT

  •  What does the Califormia controller race look l... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jck

    What does the Califormia controller race look like? Will we embarrassingly have two GOP candidates for the fall?

    •  There is a dead heat with four candidates (0+ / 0-)

      2 R and 2 D, all with about the same # of votes.

      Last vote count I saw (with 100% of precincts in but still unofficial showed one each of R and D, with the top being an R.

    •  It looks like John Perez will be our candidate. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hilltopper, lefthandedmomma

      He's barely ahead of the second Republican and the second Democrat, but the remaining absentee and provisional ballots are apt to favor the Democrats. He'll benefit as a Southern Californian too.

      Perez was a labor organizer, the Speaker of the California Assembly, and is gay. He stands a good chance of winning in November, though the more electable Republican finished first. If Perez wins and does well as Controller, he'll probably be a major force in California politics.

      •  I have to say though (0+ / 0-)

        that's a great resume for a California politician in general, it's not really what I would have been looking for for Controller. Another wacky result of term limits.

        Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

        by elfling on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 05:46:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  California Democrats have to figure out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, lefthandedmomma, askew

    how to best handle the top two situation. In the Controller race, two Republicans split their vote. Three Democrats split ours. The third place Democrat only took 5.2%, but if those votes had gone to either of the others, we would have led the vote. Even if those votes had been split, it would have ensured that a Dem was on the ballot. Why did that candidate insist on staying in the vote, when it was clear that she had no chance of winning, and was endangering the Democratic chances? We have to get this together.

    "The Democrats are the lesser evil and that has to count for something. Good and evil aren't binary states. All of us are both good and evil. Being less evil is the trajectory of morality." --SC

    by tb92 on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 04:57:03 PM PDT

  •  MS senate is not safe R (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lefthandedmomma

    if the lunatic wins the runoff, which he will because no crossover voting in the runoff

    "We are not princes of the earth, we are the descendants of worms, and any nobility must be earned." P.Z. Myers

    by TheGryphon on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 05:16:37 PM PDT

  •  CA-25: Lessons of Rogers' 2012 vs. 2014 results? (0+ / 0-)

    What lessons can Dems draw from the different 2012 and 2014 election results in CA-25?

    Could these lessons include that Dems should be more willing to support Dem challengers to supposedly unbeatable Repug incumbents?

    In comparison with yesterday's disappointing and somewhat surprising failure of Dem Lee Rogers to make the 2014 run-off, against two non-incumbent Repug candidates,

    in the preceding 2012 election, Rogers had surprised on the upside when his underfunded campaign won 45% against massively funded longtime incumbent Buck McKeon who had been considered unbeatable due to longevity, money and the district's historical voting patterns.

    One reason is of course the different turn-out trends in Presidential-year general elections compared to non-Presidential year primary elections.

    But a second reason might be that long-term incumbency is a two-edged sword, which sometimes can be leveraged against the incumbent -- especially if a fresh Dem challenger receives sufficient funding, which Rogers did not receive in 2014.

    Looking forward in this district: in 2016, one of yesterday's "new" Republicans will be a freshman incumbent, with a record that can be run against. By then, the benefits of Obamacare and the dishonesty and cruelty of Republican attacks on it will have become more obvious to many more covered people. I hope that Dr. Lee Rogers (a physician who has long campaigned for universal healthcare) runs a third time then, continuing his work on voter-registration, and taking advantage of his now 4-year head-start over any other Dem in the district in building name recognition and campaigning relationships.

  •  And in Minnesota (0+ / 0-)

    Both the Republican and Democratic parties held party conventions last week. The parties endorsed various candidates for Governor/Senator/whatever.

    But the endorsement of the party doesn't mean that that person will be the nominee. We have to wait for the primary election in August. Based on what I heard on Minnesota Public Radio (MPR), there may be a few races yet to be decided -- either the convention didn't endorse anyone or they did endorse someone, but additional people might have filed to run in the primary.

    I was listening to the reports on MPR on my way to work and I heard various names, but I don't remember them all. And we won't know who won the primaries until August. I suspect Mark Dayton will win the Democratic Primary for Governor and Al Franken will win the Primary for U.S. Senator, but there might be multiple names on the Republican primary ballot.

    "Stupid just can't keep its mouth shut." -- SweetAuntFanny's grandmother.

    by Dbug on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 08:18:20 PM PDT

  •  Thank you for your excellent work here. n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "Courage is what is takes to stand up and speak, courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen. - Winston Churchill -7.2, -7.9

    by helpImdrowning on Wed Jun 04, 2014 at 08:27:12 PM PDT

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