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ongressman Jack Kingston, Georgia, Chairman of the House Agriculture Appropriations Committee welcomes Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Dr. Kathleen Merrigan, Deputy Secretary, Dr. Joseph Glauber and Chief Economist and Michael Young Budget Officer prio
GOP Rep. Jack Kingston
SurveyUSA confirms both PPP and just the general sense of the race: Jack Kingston is kicking David Perdue's ass in the GOP runoff for Senate. Kingston's rolled out several big endorsements lately, including those of primary also-rans Karen Handel and Phil Gingrey, as well as one from influential Rep. Tom Price, and now he leads Perdue 52-41 according to SUSA. That's similar to the 46-34 margin PPP recently found, only it's even worse for Perdue, since Kingston is already cresting 50. The runoff isn't until July 22, so it could be a painful month-and-a-half for Perdue if he can't seriously reverse Kingston's mojo.

However, there's one possible warning sign in this poll: the general election results. SUSA puts Kingston up 43-37 on Democrat Michelle Nunn, and Perdue leads by a similar 43-38 spread, while Libertarian Amanda Swafford takes 6 percent in both matchups. These are by far the worst numbers in quite some time for Nunn, who's led in most polling and is at 46 percent in the Pollster average.

But they may not be wrong. The only other outfit to include Swafford was St. Leo, who found Nunn edging Kingston just 39-38 and trailing Perdue 41-37. So as we've seen in other states like North Carolina, the Libertarian's presence is simply reducing the overall vote share for the major parties. The issue, of course, is whom Swafford hurts more, and whether Nunn can clear 50 percent in November in spite of a third-party candidacy. If she can't, she'll face a January runoff where Republicans will likely have the upper hand.

SUSA also has numbers on the gubernatorial race, where GOP Gov. Nathan Deal leads Democratic state Sen. Jason Carter 44-38, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt at 7. That's very similar to their May results, which were Deal 43, Carter 37, and Hunt 7.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 11:01 AM PDT.

Also republished by Kos Georgia and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  For Nunn to have a fighting change (7+ / 0-)

    chance, she'll need to motivate traditional Democratic voters to show up at the polls in November (the ones who don't usually show in off-year elections). They're not going to do that with her agreeing with the conservative Supreme Court justices' decision to gut the Voting Rights Act, seeking to delay the individual mandate when the health care exchange website was buggy, or even indicating that she might not have voted for the Affordable Care Act.

    Whenever she gets an opportunity to support the ideas of her Democratic base, she runs away.

    Since she won the primary, I have contributed to her campaign (reluctantly), and of course, I'm voting for her. Unless she changes her tune, however, Jack Kingston will be Georgia's next U.S. Senator.

    •  Luckily Nunn will have time to sharpen her stances (7+ / 0-)

      and get ready wile Kingston and Perdue duke it out.  Perdue is fighting for his life now and is going to get nasty.  Not thrilled about these latest polls but 13% undecided is still encouraging.  Nunn will have to do what John Barrow did which is finding a way to unite both African American voters and old white voters.  I don't expect her to go to the left a lot but she will have to do it at some point.

      Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

      by poopdogcomedy on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 11:47:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  When is the last time a non-conservative Democrat (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      michealallison, Berliozian

      won in Georgia?

      •  In 1976 a progressive Dem from GA was President. (4+ / 0-)

        2008 and 2012 saw states that hadn't voted Dem for Prez since the 1960s (VA both times, NC and IN in 2008) - vote Dem.

        Change is possible. The political ground is moving rather quickly right now.

        You certainly don't have to sell out before you even start.

        That tactic may have helped some ConservaDems keep their seats in Red territory from the 1970s to the mid-2000s (plus, they were really conservative, not just pandering as some of those Dem candidates seem to be doing right now)- but it has now outlived its useful lifespan.

      •  Here's a quote from a piece that (3+ / 0-)

        Kos published in The Hill:

        Demographically, Georgia is already a blue state. Unfortunately for Democrats, those core Democratic constituencies feature anemic voting rates.
        Georgia Democrats are just as progressive as Massachusetts Democrats. Nunn is trying to win by getting traditional Republican voters to support her. Unfortunately, since these folks have taken a hard right turn since Max Cleland was elected in '96, the Republican-lite strategy is outdated.

        It's a battle between the bases of the two parties. Unfortunately, Nunn doesn't know it.

        •  Right (5+ / 0-)

          And if only the Republicans ran a true conservative they'd win every election.

          •  They haven't had much trouble doing that in (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            cjo30080

            Georgia.

            The fact is that Democrats in Georgia can't win without mobilizing their base. That can't be done while simultaneously trying to poach the GOP/T-Party base.

            Nothing human is alien to me.

            by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 12:30:34 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  And the fact is that Democrats (7+ / 0-)

              can't win in Georgia within winning the middle. The base is simply not large enough.

              Criticizing Nunn because she's too moderate simply isn't logical if you're interested in winning elections outside of the blue states.

              •  Winning the middle isn't the same as wooing (3+ / 0-)

                the T-party base. Trying to sound like a "kinder gentler" Erik Erickson won't get the job done.

                Georgia Democrats have to articulate a compelling message that mobilizes the base while still appealing to the middle. That won't be accomplished by lending credence to T-Party tropes.

                Nothing human is alien to me.

                by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 12:51:29 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  *rolls eyes* (7+ / 1-)

                  Did this thread make it on to the main dkos page?

                  50% of Georgian voters identify themselves as either very or somewhat conservative. Another 28% identify themselves as moderate. 8% identify as very liberal.

                  If this is an election of bases, we lose. It's just that simple.

                  •  As a native Georgian with an extended family (3+ / 0-)

                    throughout the state, I don't need a poll to tell me that Georgians tend to identify as conservative.

                    I also know that what that means as a practical political matter is more complicated. Treating "conservative" Georgians as an amorphous, undifferentiated mass is a large part of what turned Georgia Republican in the first place.

                    If you want to have a real discussion about real issues, we can. If all you want to do is indulge in smug posturing based on simplistic stereotypes, I'll have to give it a miss.
                     

                    Nothing human is alien to me.

                    by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 01:05:31 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Smug posturing? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Aquarius40

                      You compared Michelle Nunn to Erick fucking Erickson....

                      •  No I did not. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        wilderness voice

                        I was clearly referring to your argument. If you find the characterization unfair, we can talk about that. But don't allow your irritation to lead you into misattribution.

                        The point is that you can't appeal to the middle by capitulating to the extreme without demoralizing your own base. Given the GOP's sabotage of rural, low income health care in the state, making a point of running away from the ACA seems to be exactly that sort of simplistic calculus.  

                        Nothing human is alien to me.

                        by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 01:23:44 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Where has she "capitulated to the extreme"? (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Aquarius40

                          You're saying that you have to be extreme to be dissatisfied with the ACA? Do you put no merit in public opinion at all?

                          •  Mike, I was and am talking about the argument (0+ / 0-)

                            you are making. Not Michele Nunn per se. Although I did give an example of what I think is poor strategy and tactics above that you've chosen to ignore.

                            You seem to be arguing that because Georgia is a "conservative " state, Nunn has to run away from the President's achievements and lend credence to the specious attacks on them. If I've got that wrong, feel free to clarify.

                            If that's right though, I'd say it is a recipe for utter defeat. Such a course will only demoralize the base without giving the middle a compelling reason to vote for a Democrat over a Republican.

                            Nothing human is alien to me.

                            by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 01:42:08 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  What you said was (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Possible Liberal

                            That she was "capitulating to the extreme" and "trying to sound like a "kinder" Erick Erickson"

                            Now...if you weren't talking about Michelle Nunn, which is what this conversation was about, then I have no idea why you interjected.

                            If you were, I'd like to see an example of this. If it's the ACA, I think it's political suicide to embrace an unpopular policy position from an unpopular President in a state that he couldn't win at the absolute height of his popularity. If Obama couldn't win Georgia in '08 or '12, during a time when turnout was at its peak, what on earth makes you think a copy-cat version of him could win in an off-year election when he's considerably less popular?

                          •  You are now engaging in outright falsehood (0+ / 0-)

                            Nowhere did I say that Michele Nunn was "capitulating to the extreme" and "trying to sound like a "kinder" Erick Erickson". You have intentionally taken those snippets out of context to distort my meaning, just as you have ignored my explicit statements as to what I was referring to.

                            Evidently, you have no real confidence in your position or you wouldn't resort to this kind of barefaced fabrication.

                            The rest of your comment is simply more of the same "creative" misreading, inventing things I never said and arguments I never made. If and when you decide to address what I've actually said, there might be some point in continuing. Otherwise; no.

                            Nothing human is alien to me.

                            by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:15:02 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Haha...ok guy (0+ / 0-)

                            So were you talking about her, or were you created an unnecessary hypothetical that had nothing to do with the conversation? You pick. It's one of the two.

                          •  Wrong again. You don't get to define reality. (0+ / 0-)

                            Reality defines you.

                            Since you apparently have trouble with this, let me try to help you out.

                            What does the fact that a majority Georgians define themselves as "conservative" in a poll, the formulation of which you do not bother to provide, tell us about the practical content of their political views?

                            Assuming that you actually have an answer based on something than supposition and personal prejudice, how does that support your apparent belief that mobilizing the Democratic base isn't a significant consideration?

                            Not that I imagine you'll address these points anymore than you've bothered to address any of the other actual points I've raised.

                            I am curious though, as to your expertise in Georgia State politics, since you seem convinced that you have nothing to learn.  

                            Nothing human is alien to me.

                            by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:36:05 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  How about this (0+ / 0-)

                            Since you:

                            A) Seem to think you know more about Georgia politics

                            B) Seem to think that those 50% of Georgians who identify as conservative aren't actually conservative

                            C) Seem to think that embracing all things Obama and progressive is the strategy to win a statewide election in Georgia

                            Tell me, honestly, what's your practical strategy to get 50+% of the vote in Georgia? Specifically. Here's your chance. How do you woo those voters by embracing someone they overwhelmingly reject?

                          •  You know, it would be a lot more productive if you (0+ / 0-)

                            paid attention to what was actually said. It's certainly odd that you expect me to respond to your queries when you won't respond to any of mine.

                            First off, "conservative" has myriad different content depending on who you ask and how you frame the question. That is so obvious that it should hardly need pointing out. GOP voters, even in Georgia, are not some undifferentiated, monolithic mass and treating them as such is rank political incompetence.

                            This kind of ignorant and bigoted perspective leads to simple minded binaries, such as the belief that one must either "embrace" Obama or literally run against him. A more informed outlook would likely produce a wider and more nuanced set of possibilities.

                            Being a native Georgian who has been politically active throughout my adolescence and my entire adult life, including Democratic election campaigns, I don't think  it unreasonable that I would know more about politics in the State than someone without like experience.

                            What did you say your expertise was again? Oh that's right, you didn't say.

                            I already suggested that the GOP is vulnerable on the issue of rural health care but you evidently failed to pick up on the reference. Perhaps because you aren't cognizant of the issue?

                            Nothing human is alien to me.

                            by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 04:04:11 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  So you're just going to keep saying a bunch (0+ / 0-)

                            of $5 words without saying anything concrete at all. K. Done here.

                          •  You are such a fraud. I gave you direct direct, (0+ / 0-)

                            concrete responses and you've got nothing.

                            Run away.

                            Nothing human is alien to me.

                            by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 04:50:14 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                    •  The Democratic Party dominated ... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WB Reeves

                      Georgia state and local politics for over a hundred years, up until early this century.  The right turn is relatively recent.

                      "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

                      by Neuroptimalian on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:05:48 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

        •  cjo: That is, quite frankly, bull. (6+ / 0-)
          Georgia Democrats are just as progressive as Massachusetts Democrats.
          •  It is. That is like saying Elizabeth Warren could (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Matt Z, Jorge Harris

            win in Georgia.  She could not.

            (Georgia native here)

            "The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." - Thomas Paine

            by shrike on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:03:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's a great acid test. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TheUnknown285

              Yes. I strongly suspect that Elizabeth Warren would have a better chance of winning in Georgia than Michelle Nunn because Warren would be more likely to excite the Democratic base and get them to come out to vote in a mid-term election.

          •  You are so right.. (0+ / 0-)

            Georgia Democrats are more deeply determined that their Northern borthers and sisters.

            "AMERICA DID NOT INVENT HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN RIGHTS INVENTED AMERICA"

            by michealallison on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:04:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  aquarius from NYC: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TheUnknown285, WB Reeves

            You know more about Georgia Democrats than an 51-year old who has been active in Georgia Democratic politics his entire adult life?

            I think that I'm going to have to call BS on you.

            If you have a link with credible evidence showing that Georgia Democrats are more conservative than blue state Democrats, then I'll reconsider. Otherwise, my experience says otherwise.

            I could be wrong, but I suspect that might have more to go on than you.

            •  Well, there's this from Nate Silver (4+ / 0-)

              from 2008; it uses 2004 exit polls and Likert Scales to try and assess how liberal or conservative each state's Bush and Kerry voters were. If you scroll down to the scatterplot in mid-article, you'll see that Georgia's Kerry voters appear to be the 11th most conservative Kerry voters in the nation, comparable to those in North Carolina and Indiana. So, short answer, yes, Georgia Democrats are more conservative than blue state Democrats (provided that you agree with Silver's technique here).

              Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

              by David Jarman on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 03:15:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You and your facts (0+ / 0-)

                He lives in Georgia, which means people who don't live in Georgia couldn't possibly use numbers to trump that.

              •  Thanks David! (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                WB Reeves

                As I recall, since the ACA was enacted, several polls showed that the majority opposed the law. However, the same people who opposed it also supported most of its provisions (without knowing they were in the law). Also, several support the "Affordable Care Act", but oppose "ObamaCare."

                No. I don't put much stock in how people identify themselves. I'm not asking Nunn to run ads saying, "Vote for me. I'm a liberal." I would, however, encourage her to run ads, saying, "Vote for me. I'll seek to raise the minimum wage."..."I'll work to expand Social Security benefits."..."I'll work to create Georgia jobs, by investing in teachers, police, firefighters, and fixing our broken roads and bridges."..."I'll fight for a Constitutional Amendment to take corporate money out of politics."..."I'll work make to Medicare available to all." (and so on).

                In short, I'm saying that, issue by issue, Democrats throughout the country are on the same page...including Georgia Democrats.

                •  This is what practical political content looks (0+ / 0-)

                  like. These are the kinds of positions that can both excite the base and attract the middle. They speak to people's day to day concerns with an effectiveness that the rhetoric of culture war and ideological purity cannot match.

                  Nothing human is alien to me.

                  by WB Reeves on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 04:12:10 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Wyche Fowler 1986 Senate (4+ / 0-)

            That would be my best guess. He was a moderate to liberal Democrat who previously was in the House in the Atlanta area seat that Andrew Young occupied before joining the Carter Administration.

              I am definitely not an expert on GA politics so I might be missing someone.

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 01:29:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  But in Georgia (8+ / 0-)

      "traditional Democratic voters" are conservative. Nunn is hoping to bring the older generation who remember her father (who do turn out in midterms)  back into the fold, and those voters are, or at least used to be, conservative Democrats. Her goal should be to run on entitlements and her personal brand while distancing herself from President Obama.

    •  That is why Nunn loses. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cjo30080, WB Reeves

      And probably spectacularly, a la Mark Taylor in 2006's gubernatorial election by running to the right in a quixotic attempt to win over conservative whites and in the process alienating core Democratic constituencies.  Plus, muddled messaging and "me-tooism" is not going to win over anyone undecided or any Republican leaners.

  •  Tea Party taking over GA Republicans (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cjo30080, El Hombre Azul, pademocrat

    The Libertarian vote could likely take the election to a runoff.
    Both Nunn and Carter fit well with Georgia Democrats.
    Yes they will have to drive the base.
    That is the key.

    "AMERICA DID NOT INVENT HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN RIGHTS INVENTED AMERICA"

    by michealallison on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 11:48:35 AM PDT

  •  Some one please explain to me .. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shrike

    ...how can Atlanta be the third most gay-friendly city in America and the second fastest in adopting electric cars but the state of Georgia hasn't been more redneck/TeaParty loving in decades? Something doesn't compute.

    •  Atlanta is very small for a major city. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheUnknown285

      Memphis is 150% the size for example.

      (Atlanta = 440,000 population)

      The metro area is huge though.

      "The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." - Thomas Paine

      by shrike on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:06:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Georgia has Atlanta (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      anshmishra

      Texas has Austin. Liberal enclaves exist.

      Atlanta is a huge city, but it's still only 5% of the population of Georgia.

    •  The rapid pace of Demosaurs becoming Republicans (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cjo30080

      explains the shift in voting patterns. Georgia used to have a fairly large number of elastic white voters that were willing to consider conservative Democratic candidates. Now it's as polarized as Alabama or Mississippi albeit with a larger share of people of color and progressive whites, which is why it's nearly a swing state in presidential elections. This is why Michelle Nunn faces an uphill climb: there is a very small number of persuadable voters and they're pretty conservative.

      •  or maybe.. (0+ / 0-)

        ...they will revert back to the elastic voter pattern once the President isn't a black guy. I have lived in the South long enough to know that even the conservadems have a racist tinge albeit far less raging than their Republican coynterparts.

  •  Nunn Should Run As A Democrat (5+ / 0-)

    I think she would be a lot tougher if she got out there and sounded like a populist democrat and not a semi lite republican.  The more bold she is the  more people will be excited about her.  Whoever is advising her is steering her wrong.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 01:52:30 PM PDT

  •  Explanation for Nunn's alleged dip in polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cjo30080

    I am not convinced of the SUSA results which I think is a likely outlier. Even if I am wrong there is an obvious explanation for  Nunn's alleged dip in the polls. With a red hot Republican run off all of the attention is focused on Kingston and Perdue, not Nunn. When the dust clears in a few weeks that will change. After the debacle all of the well respected polling firms experienced by embarrassing themselves in 2012, only PPP seems reliable to me. Just two weeks ago they had Nunn back up at 46 I believe. I doubt things have changed that much in two weeks and I await their next round of results which I will have much more faith in.

    Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

    by bywaterbob on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:37:19 PM PDT

    •  Polls vary (0+ / 0-)

      Yes, I agree.  Lets wait till the shite starts flying between the two Rs before jumping to conclusions.
      And yes, I meant exactly that phrasing.  Kingston sent out a commerical showing Perdue as a baby in diapers and as the baby got up you could see shitey diapers.  I kid you not.
      So it can only be more fun from here on!

      "AMERICA DID NOT INVENT HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN RIGHTS INVENTED AMERICA"

      by michealallison on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 02:58:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GA-SEN (0+ / 0-)

    I agree, Bob...this is clearly a case of of Kingston bouncing like crazy after primary and with all those endorsements. That said, this is after all Georgia and it will take a huge effort for MN to pull this off. It is only close because incumbent, even Saxby, isn't running. Same can be said about WV, MT and maybe even SD. If Dem. incumbents hadn't "retired" those seats would not even by in play. But that's the game. Nunn is still within a couple of pts. or even tied once the hysteria dies down following primary and she needs to find some way to appeal to the middle. The "base" is too small and their are still loads of red-necks in GA.

  •  Georgia's runoff law (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cjo30080, anshmishra, pademocrat

    That's the thing that kills us because of the difficulty of mobilizing Democratic voters for what's seen as a special election rather than a general.  The political makeup of the state is almost primed for producing upper 40s for each of the major parties and 5 for a Libertarian, but then any Dem in a runoff is going into a headwind of Democratic base voting habits AND how the Libertarian voters decide to scatter.

    That's a habit that has to change.  For the purposes of this cycle I think it means Kentucky and Mississippi are more realistic "gets" than Georgia, unless someone in Georgia can crack the code for getting voters out for a runoff election.

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