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The Dream Academy -- "Please, Please, Please Let Me Get What I Want"

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Comment Preferences

  •  I hope Grimes crushes McConnell (10+ / 0-)

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    That would make my day.

    Other than that, for California Senate, Sandra Fluke and Paulina Miranda.

    I'll be helping them both until November.

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 05:02:52 PM PDT

  •  WI-SD-1, WI-AD-11 (9+ / 0-)

    Democrats are trying to get Republican WI State Sen. Frank Lasee (R-Town of Ledgeview) kicked off the ballot for not living in SD-1, and Republicans are trying to get Democratic WI State Rep. Mandela Barnes (D-Milwaukee) kicked off the ballot for using two different home addresses on his nominating petitions.

    Should Lasee be kicked off the ballot, that would leave Democratic candidate Dean DeBroux, a special education teacher, completely unopposed in SD-1. Should Barnes be kicked off the ballot, that would leave nobody running in AD-11. I'm not sure if Wisconsin allows write-in candidates to file after the normal filing deadline.

  •  I've been supporting Alison Grimes in Kentucky (4+ / 0-)

    the most. And as much as I'm able, I'm supporting Al Franken, Wendy Davis and Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire race). We have got to get the word over somehow to Scott Brown about "Once a dirt bag, always...". You certainly would have thought he would have gotten that message loudly and clearly when Elizabeth Warren trounced him in 2012. But he just got up and put yet another "For Sale To The Lowest Bidder" sandwich board on his back and front, and the Koch Bros and Rove certainly know a bargain basement deal when they see one. They snapped his worthless, sorry backside up in a heartbeat!

  •  sweet, SD-20 here in Oregon (5+ / 0-)

    Democratic challenger Jamie Damon has nearly matched incumbent Alan Olsen in fundraising and now has more money in the bank.

    In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

    by James Allen on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 05:15:40 PM PDT

  •  WA-08 and IN-02 (5+ / 0-)

    Name recognition is so important to get Democrats interested in caring about a candidate and voting. I'm doing what I can to spread the word on good progressive Dems.

    I discovered Jason Ritchie in WA-08 about a week ago and wrote a couple of diaries about him. The GOP Rep David Reichert is up for his 5th term, but Pres Obama won this district in 2008 and 2012. Jason is very progressive and a good guy.  We need him in the House.

    He's reaching out to Latinos and is very interested in immigration reform.  Apparently farmers and companies in the area are unhappy with Reichert obstructing immigration bills.

    WA-08: Progressive Democrat Jason Ritchie is ready to turn this purple district BLUE!

    What do you think? If anyone is nearby, he's having a campaign kickoff/BBQ tomorrow in Issaquah, WA.

    WA-08: Meet Jason Ritchie (D) Sat, June 7 at his campaign kickoff/BBQ

    I have very little info yet on Joe Bock, IN-02, but he's the next one I will look at. I have the impression he might be a good candidate, but just don't know.

    Any info on these races is appreciated.

    I'm on Twitter: ThisMagicalEarth@MagicalEarth

    by ParkRanger on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 05:18:17 PM PDT

  •  CA Gov (10+ / 0-)

    I made a rough map for the performance of two Republicans.

    Orange =Donnelly
    Green =Kashkari

     photo CaliforniaGov2014_zps7e9ac9ed.png

    note: this is still just a rough estimate till all the votes tallied. There were a few counties where Donnelly won by just a hair over Kashkari.

    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 05:58:45 PM PDT

  •  CA-Controller: Friday 5 PM Update (14+ / 0-)

    Pérez has moved back into second, with Evans and Yee really close behind, 3rd and 4th separated by 452 votes.

    Tammy D. Blair
    (Party Preference: DEM)    170,379   
    5.1%
         John A. Pérez
    (Party Preference: DEM)    725,557   
    21.5%
         Betty T. Yee
    (Party Preference: DEM)    722,380   
    21.5%
         David Evans
    (Party Preference: REP)    722,832   
    21.5%
         Ashley Swearengin
    (Party Preference: REP)    837,653   
    24.9%
         Laura Wells
    (Party Preference: GRN)    188,605   
    5.6%

    28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

    by BluntDiplomat on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 06:07:11 PM PDT

  •  Rand Paul steps in it again big time (14+ / 0-)
    Texas — Sen. Rand Paul on Friday likened Democrats to the recently released Taliban detainees at Guantánamo Bay in a speech here at the Texas GOP convention.

    “Mr. President, you love to trade people,” the Kentucky Republican and likely 2016 contender said to laughs, a reference to the deal made for the return of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl.

    Why don’t we set up a trade? But this time, instead of five Taliban, how about five Democrats? I’m thinking John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi …

    He was drowned out by cheers.

    Link
  •  Next weeks races (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    AR Attorney General runoff:
    Looks like Rutledge will get it which is good, we need more women in the party IMO, and she is more than qualified I think.  Besides, I think she could be a GOP rising star for the future.

    ME-02 GOP Primary:
    I think Raye wins this off of name recognition, if Raye wins the race is Lean Democrat, if it is Poliquin then it is Safe Democrat.  So this is an important race.

    NV Lt Governor GOP Primary:
    I Want Hutchison to win because he seems like a better candidate over Lowden.

    SC-State Superintendent GOP Primary: I rooting for Meka Childs In the GOP Primary, I think she has a good chance of making the runoff due to being the Deputy Superintendent.

    I went 5/5 in my predictions this week.  So I am 7/25 now.  Hope to go 4/4 this coming week.

    •  Hutchison (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, PSUCentrePA

      should win no problem. Lowden is completely broke and the establishment is behind Hutchison. Plus he has anti-Obamacare cred (represented Nevada in the failed lawsuit against the Individual Mandate/Medicaid expansion) unlike Lowden who's chickens for care gaffe gave the GOP Sharron Angle which resurrected Reid's reelection prospects from the dead.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 06:50:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Corbett/Christie rally doesn't go so well (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, ChadmanFL, KingofSpades

  •  CA-33 (6+ / 0-)

    If I'm reading the LA Times map of the district right, Williamson who was the favored candidate of certain Hollywood stars didn't even carry more than a handful of precincts in Beverly Hills! So much for being Hollywood's candidate.

    Williamson must be one of the most over-hyped candidates this year along with Ed Gillespie.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 06:53:55 PM PDT

    •  That isn't her demographic (6+ / 0-)

      It actually makes sense where she won:

      Topanga and Venice... hippies with money
      Malibu... entertainment biz lefties

      Greuel got the old money Westwood and Beverly Hills corporate liberal types.

      The race really went according to what would seem most likely...
      the southern half of the district (more Asian and more Republican) split between Carr and Leiu.  The northern part of the district split between Williamson, Greuel and Miller centered areas.

      Almost creepy how consistent the areas are, except for the weirdo far eastern appendage that oddly juts into the center of the city.

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 10:08:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That area (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold

        Covers Hancock Park which is really upscale and sort of an extension of Beverly Hills except the housing prices are a bit lower. Hancock Park is interesting though in the fact that around Van Ness Ave, the area changes from being really upscale to more working class and minority. It's pretty instant.

        Also, Hancock Park ends right before the Purple Line begins. They didn't extend the purple line out past Western because Hancock Park and Waxman didn't want it.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

        by Alibguy on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 10:57:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's a good epithet for Venice Beach. (0+ / 0-)

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:53:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Don't forget Scott Brown! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorge Harris

      Scott Brown sure hasn't!

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 01:49:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So many candidates mucked it up. (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:54:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  HoosierD42's Weekend Court Report™ (14+ / 0-)

    The Senate took a week off for Memorial Day, so so did I, unfortunately. But we were back this week, somewhat light.

    Confirmations

    • Mark G. Mastroianni to the District of Massachusetts. Cloture was 56-39 (Ayotte, Collins and Murkowski voting Aye) and Confirmation was 92-2 (Cruz and Paul voting no). The D. Mass. is now 7-4 Democratic-appointed active judges (9-7 total) with two more vacancies and one pending nomination. Mastroianni has a history in private practice as well as public, serving as ADA for Hampden County from 1990-1995 and as DA from 2011-2014. He replaces Michael Ponsor, a Clinton appointee who took senior status August 2011.
    • Bruce Howe Hendricks to the District of South Carolina. Cloture was 59-35 (Ayotte, Collins, Graham, Murkowski and Scott voting Aye) and Confirmation was 95-0. The D.S.C. is now 5-4 D active (8-8 total) with one vacancy and one pending nomination. Hendricks has spent her entire career in public service, as AUSA for the D.S.C. from '91-'02 and as a Magistrate Judge since 2002. She replaces Margaret Seymour, a Clinton appointee who assumed senior status January 2013.
    • Tanya S. Chutkan to the District of Columbia. Cloture was 54-40 (Collins and Murkowski voting Aye) and Confirmation was 95-0. The D.D.C. is now 10-4 D active (13-6 D total) with two vacancies and one pending nomination. Chutkan worked as a trial attorney and supervisor at the Public Defender Service in DC from '91-'02, and since then has been a private attorney. She was appointed to a temporary judgeship while District Judge John D. Bates (G.W. Bush) takes on the responsibilities of Director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. The seat will expire upon Chutkan's vacating of the seat, unless it is made permanent before then.

    Movement on current nominations

    • The Judiciary Committee held a hearing on one judge this week, Gregory Crawford to the District of Vermont. Pat Leahy personally recommended Crawford to President Obama, so I imagine his confirmation will move swiftly.
    • Harry Reid filed for cloture on three nominations, which will be voted on on Monday. M. Hannah Lauck to the Eastern District of Virginia, Leo T. Sorokin to the District of Massachusetts, and Richard Franklin Boulware II to the District of Nevada.

    New vacancies

    • Robin Rosenbaum received her judicial commission to the 11th Circuit on June 2, so she officially vacated her seat on the S.D. Fla.
    • Ellen Segall Huvelle, a Clinton appointee, took senior status on June 3 from the District of Columbia.

    Nominations

    • No new nominations

    Bruce Hendricks and Tanya Chutkan make Obama's 109th and 110th female judicial appointments. 2 more until he sets a new record!

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 06:55:05 PM PDT

  •  PA-Gov: Hope has been reinvigorated for us (6+ / 0-)

    of not just winning, but winning big.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 07:01:24 PM PDT

  •  I'm thinking of picking up one of Robert Caro's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    many books on Lyndon Johnson. Does anyone have a suggestion for which of the four is the most interesting?

  •  Open thread question time: (6+ / 0-)

    How has the ACA personally effected you?

    I'm reasonably certain I would have aged out of my parents plan by now under the old rules, and I'm not close to a position where I'd have employer-provided coverage, so I only have healthcare at this point thanks to the law.

    •  Not much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      It could have affected me a great deal, but Perry chose not to expand medicaid. As it stands, I'm mostly just affected by the preexisting conditions clause (I'm a type one diabetic), the lifetime and annual limits clause, and the free wellness exams.

    •  Hasn't affected me at all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      Considering Obamacare is basically Romneycare and I'm from Massachusetts, that's not surprising.

    •  I don't think it's affected me yet (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus

      but once I graduate from college it will allow me to stay on my parents' plan. I admit I'm not an expert on health care or anything relating to the medical field, but I have no doubt that eventually I will get to know more people who the ACA has personally helped.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 08:08:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have health insurance (14+ / 0-)

         for the first time in decades. It is a local Los Angeles County public option called "L.A. Care" .  It is an HMO. I have the card and an assigned doctor. Next week I will call to set up an appointment for a physical exam. I used to just pay for services and hope nothing major would happen that I couldn't afford. Now I no longer should have to worry about medical bill bankruptcy.

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 08:29:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It doesn't affect me directly... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew, abgin

      ...other than giving me peace of mind that I know that I can get access to healthcare if the bottom fell out of my finances.  That's a very big deal to me.  It also makes sick people slightly less second class.  That's an even bigger deal to me.

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 08:56:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's saved me thousands of dollars (13+ / 0-)

      I've personally had quality insurance through my employer for 8 years, so it has not directly affected my own insurance much.  But my mother in in her 50's and has been unable to work for many years, without disability coverage or any real income.  I've been supporting her.  Due to pre-existing conditions she had not had any insurance for almost a decade and had been putting off a lot of things.  

      With Obamacare I pay about $400 a month (would have been about $700 without subsidy) for a 100% Blue Cross plan with zero deductible for her.  So far I've paid only about $200 out of pocket (doctors visit co-payments and RX) while the plan has paid roughly $8,000, mainly to have skin cancer removed, prescriptions and tests.  I would have gone near broke paying all these bills out of pocket and my mom was too stubborn to go to the doctor for fear of the bills prior to having insurance.

      I swear she didn't believe Obamacare was actually going to work until she got her insurance card in the mail and visited the doctor without paying anything for the first time.  

      •  My first question (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        to HR when I got my job (with full benefits) almost 16 years ago was: Can I put my parents/siblings on my healthcare?  Since I couldn't claim them as dependents for tax purposes, the answer was, of course, no.

        As the go-to emergency loan/grant source for my extended family, the ACA will reduce my out-of-pocket.

        Also, it means I could quit/change my job without worrying about healthcare.

        Also, it means I can go to the doctor for treatment without worrying about setting up a scenario where my medical records block me from getting affordable healthcare in future.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 02:30:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My company has excellent benefits (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          benamery21

          Been there for 8 years and they offer great plans at a very low cost.  They even extend benefits to gay couples even in states like mine that don't have marriage equality.  Only thing they don't extend health coverage to is adult dependents.  :(  No company I'm aware does that unfortunately.

    •  Good benefit to me (8+ / 0-)

      My new job offers great insurance to me dirt cheap, but does not cover my wife or baby at all at a discount. So to cover them through my job would have been $1,000 a month.

      Thanks to Obamacare we were able to find a good plan that saved us a few hundred bucks a month, we kept our doctors as well.  

      Very happy.

      33/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:31:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would Have Been a Big Deal For Me (5+ / 0-)

      It would have been a big deal for me since I work for myself and hadn't had insurance in about ten years. But before it kicked in I got married last year and my wife is in the military so I have Tri-Care (which is awesome) instead.

      I'm finally getting dental work done that I put off for years. It's amazing.

    •  I had health insurance from passage to this Feb. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike, askew

      After I turned 26. Never got sick enough to go to the hospital, but it was a load off my mind. I'll probably check out the exchanges here soon.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 10:59:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Positive effect on me (8+ / 0-)

      I'm on my mom's health insurance plan for about a year and a half (my 26th birthday will be January 26, 2016). Prior to that, I had no health insurance whatsoever because I have Asperger's Syndrome.

    •  It helped me win some arguments (0+ / 0-)

      about whether Obama really brought about change, but that's pretty much it.

    •  None at all (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ehstronghold, gabjoh, James Allen, abgin

      While I'm sure it brought the price of insurance down, the plans offered in New York are still too expensive for me to afford. $300-400/month for plans with large deductibles are basically useless. Thankfully I'll be able to get some decent insurance when I start grad school in the fall.

    •  I (0+ / 0-)

      was able to get health insurance for myself through my work because my employer bumped me up to a more permanent status in the company. I may still be in college and young, but if god forbid something bad were to happen for me at least I know I won't be bankrupted by huge medical bills. I mean us college students already have to worry about student debt!

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:23:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  As I mentioned here (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, askew, benamery21

      when the exchanges launched, the ACA would have saved me $125-150 per month (for a gold plan) over the direct plan I had at the time. And most likely a lot more, as I was comparing the 2013 premium for the Anthem direct plan (pre-whatever annual increase there would have been) with the 2014 exchange premium.

      The irony is that my employment status changed soon after, giving me insurance through my company. But it feels amazing to know I'd easily be able to get direct insurance again, if I ever need it.

    •  Not me much but my family yes (14+ / 0-)

      My parents are virulent anti-Obama conservatives and thought the ACA was the coming of the third reich. They both retired in their early 50s and didn't qualify for medicare.

      They were "happy" with their junk insurance because it was cheap and all they needed. After all, they are both health nuts, exercise regularly, and don't drink or smoke.

      About two months ago my dad was admitted to the hospital with recurring chest pains that had been going on about three months. His doctor said it was just acid reflux but it got to a point that they knew it must be something else.

      Turns out he had major arterial blockage and his heart was function at 13% capacity. A few more days and it would have been 0%. He was admitted to the hospital and had stents and pumps pumping his heart for him and underwent major open heart surgery (it was so bad there were a few days they weren't sure if he would make it). Because they had a decent ACA plan, a bill that could have drained a huge chunk of their retirement or perhaps forced them back into work was almost entirely covered by their new insurance plan.

      The ACA bashing is conspicuously absent from our conversations now.

    •  I got an extra year on my father's insurance (11+ / 0-)

      when I critically needed mental health care. It might be the reason I'm still here.

      In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

      by James Allen on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 09:49:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  More costly (0+ / 0-)

      At the place I work, we switched insurance providers earlier this year and were told that, due to the ACA, rates would be going up.  I should note that the person who put this together (one of my co-workers) is seemingly apolitical and wouldn't be the type to "blame Obummercare" - instead, I think this was just the new coverage requirements causing an increase, and noting that the ACA was the cause.  We got one 20% rate increase in February, with another 20% rate increase coming around August.

      Still, it costs less than what I would get if I went through the exchange (Wisconsin resident, mid-30s).  And, even though I don't make a lot of money, I'm okay with the ACA in total even if my rates are going up some - while not perfect, far more good than harm has been done with the law.

      •  Sounds fishy (0+ / 0-)

        How big is the company?  Did the deductible change?
        Do you mean your contribution to the premium is going up 44% in a 6 month period or that the premium is going up that much, or both (you should be able to see the company contribution on your W-2 if nowhere else)?  Do you mean that the premium is less than the exchange price, or that your contribution to the premium is less than the exchange price, and is that with or without subsidies?

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 02:04:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Save me about 500 on tests that (0+ / 0-)

      used to be paid by me and now are covered under preventative services.

      Saved multiple family members money as well.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 12:15:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Honestly, not at all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus

      And, that's actually a feature of the ACA, not a coincidence.  One of the very goals was to try to avoid touching at all the plans of people happy with what they have, including most employer-provided plans like I have.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:46:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gay Marriage WS -GOV (6+ / 0-)

    With the new ruling I'm curious to see how much of it will impact the Governor's race. I've noticed Walker seems to be backtracking quite a bit.

    Also in the large scheme of things, I wonder if perhaps Gay marriage may be a settled issue in the sense that it ends up being legal in all 50 states by the end of Obama's term. It really seems to be accelerating at a pace I never fathomed before.

    "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 07:17:03 PM PDT

  •  North Carolina's original 1992 congressional map (6+ / 0-)

    roguemapper had a post the other day over at RRH about the original 1992 map with the infamous NC-12 that went from Durham to the Triad to Charlotte to Gastonia and I went back and drew it in DRA and calculated the 2012 data:
     photo mapMain_zps37537d79.png
     photo NCCDs1992-1996map2012Data_zps495d3745.png
    (population is in thousands, racial groups include Hispanics)

    At the time state Democrats drew that map and were forced by the DoJ to draw the 1st and 12th, they intended the 6th, 9th, and 10th as vote sinks while the 11th was a potential pick up. We had incumbents in 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8. This map awesomely uses crossover touch point contiguity several times. One thing I notice when I look at the map is how many Democrats are wasted in Greensboro who could have gone in the 5th, but other than that it tries to scoop up every pocket of strength it can given the constraints of the two black districts.

    Looking at 2012 though we almost certainly win all four Obama seats including the 9th while Shuler and McIntyre win fairly comfortably in the 7th and 11th. If we didn't nominate Bob Etheridge again in the 2nd I think we win that one too since it has a bunch of conservadems and was a full point to the left of the state in 2012, but with his baggage he might have lost it but it's a Tossup at worst. The 5th might be winnable and certainly competitive given how loony Virginia Foxx is but it's still a right leaning district with a bad trend. Kissell's seat gets barely more Democratic and he's probably still triaged.

    •  This map was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, James Allen, sulthernao

      the first to be seriously challenged in court as an example of unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.  I think this was an example of the DoJ (in a GOP administration) using the VRA as an excuse to pack most minority precincts into one district and, not by accident, leaving other seats more Republican.  Ironically, by now even the two monstrosities intended as such don't have African-American majorities (granted, the state as a whole has an additional district, but still...)

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:01:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Did the Bush Justice Dept. demand the 12th (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, Taget

        be drawn that way?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:02:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Essentially, yes (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, Taget, James Allen

          though they didn't dictate those precise lines.  After the Democratic legislature drew a district with an African American majority district in the eastern part of the state (the 1st), the Bush 41 DoJ demanded that a second such district be drawn elsewhere, so the 12th was contrived.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:15:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The Bush DOJ was extremely aggressive (7+ / 0-)

          They demanded that VRA districts in the South be drawn to be as black as possible. That's why a lot of Southern states had really disgusting tentacle monsters for districts; this includes Cleo Fields's district in Louisiana and Corrine Brown's district in Florida, both of which were also successfully challenged. There was also less egregious stuff like running Alabama's VRA district into Montgomery when it didn't need Montgomery to be black-majority. The aim was, of course, obviously partisan, but certainly nobody in the Bush DOJ ever admitted it.

          •  So irritating. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Taget

            Ben Ginsburg was also a champion of that sort of thing.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:22:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There's a hilarious district in Miami-Dade, too (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, anshmishra, Taget

              This is the original Florida map, used in 1992 and 1994. At first, you'll just see the north Florida black sink, but zoom in on southern Florida. You'll notice Alcee Hastings's old district, and then when you look southward at Miami-Dade, you'll have to first convince yourself that what you see isn't a joke.

              •  Was there not enough of an AA population in (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Taget

                the North Miami area at the time to support the compact district that currently exists there?

                “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:32:39 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Sorry, forgot the link (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, Taget, James Allen

                  Here it is. There was enough of a black population to draw a compact black district. But the Bush DOJ's interpretation of the VRA was "draw as black as possible, even if it's repulsively ugly".

                  •  Wow, had no idea they were that heinous. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Taget

                    At least in time for '96, they corrected the Congressional maps to be less ugly: http://archive.fairvote.org/...

                    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:42:04 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Surprised the courts didn't put the kibosh on them (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Taget, LordMike

                    for their obviously agenda-filled arguments for "black as possible, no matter what."

                    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:43:58 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Unfortunately, when the VRA was reauthorized.... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades

                      ...it added a provision for majority black districts, so the packing was not only legal, it was encouraged.  The CBC loved that provision as well, and still fights any attempt at any reasonable adjustments to their districts.

                      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

                      by LordMike on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:37:21 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Such BS (0+ / 0-)

                        Majority VAP black is really all it takes.

                        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:19:05 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  We like to talk about this from only an election (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          propjoe

                          standpoint, but keep in mind that black elected officials are also concerned with representation.

                          It's been shown across a wide variety of studies that black officials substantively represent in a good number of ways black constituents better than do similarly situated white representatives.

                          In other words, they're trying to make sure that the highest number of blacks in their state are getting the best possible representation.

                          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:23:48 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  This is very important for constituency service (0+ / 0-)

                            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:24:04 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  But isn't the VRA supposed to be about elections? (0+ / 0-)

                            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:57:16 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yes and no (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades

                            It's about elections and representation.

                            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 08:00:36 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  No (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades, Avedee

                            It's supposed to allow more blacks in congress regardless of whether that provision ends up limiting the voice of African Americans on the political stage. It's a tradeoff, I guess. If one values diversity, it's good. If one values political power exercised by a minority, it's both good and bad.

                            Apparently Stephen Wolf has proven that you could easily draw a Democrat-less south if it weren't for the VRA, but the way it's implemented, you have fewer Democrats than might otherwise be possible with a "better" interpretation of the VRA.

                            I like the idea of limiting VRA districts to within a few percentage points of 50%. It maximizes minority political power, prevents them from being packed, and still allows minorities to elect minority candidates without any help from whites.

                          •  Makes sense, but at the same time doesn't (0+ / 0-)

                            Sure, packing a 67% black Americans into a district ensures that those black Americans get good representation. But what about the 15-20-30% in the other districts? Wouldn't it be better to have two black Congressman represent 50.1% AA majority districts than one representing a ghettoized district?

                            26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                            by HoosierD42 on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 12:54:27 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Most places 40% would be plenty, nt (0+ / 0-)

                          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                          by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 08:19:31 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  Still can't believe it (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lordpet8, Taget

                    it makes the Shawmander (FL-22 in the 2000s) look almost reasonable by comparison.

                    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                    by KingofSpades on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 09:45:21 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  We lost Ben Erdreich in Alabama (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ehstronghold, Jacob1145, Taget

            as a result of those maps ... sigh

            Between the aggressive DOJ and the dummymanders, it's no surprise that GOP made large gains in the south.

            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

            by lordpet8 on Fri Jun 06, 2014 at 10:42:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  If only Dems were as aggressive on VRA districts (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, Stephen Wolf

            we could have additional ones in at least SC, AL, MS, and LA.

            In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

            by James Allen on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 10:05:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  VA-7 GOP Primary Poll (8+ / 0-)

    Vox Populi (R)

    GOP primary
    Cantor 52
    Brat 39

    http://dailycaller.com/...

  •  IL Gov Race: Pat Quinn (D) v. Bruce Rauner (Repug) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    If the Illinois governorship goes the way of its Midwestern neighbors like Snotty Walker in Wisconsin, Rick Snyder in Michigan and John Kasich in Ohio, it will be a very sad day for the entire country.

    Many of my fellow Democrats in Illinois are very worried about this race if the Multi-Zillionaire Rauner wins--despite the large Democratic presence in the Illinois General Assembly.  I actually thought things were beginning to look up for the Democrats nationwide until the Repugnican Bergdahl-Gazzi "Scandal" became practically the only narrative the media cares about.  Now, I am worried that this will filter down to all important elections nationwide, including the Illinois governorship race.  

    The Dems were finally starting to wake people up about the Kochtocracy that our government has devolved into.  Then this this latest "Ben Gazzi" scandal happened and appears to be canceling out  recent "moral" gains we Democrats have made.  Until this past weekend, a substantial number of people were beginning to realize for the first time that Obamacare will not kill them.  I hope the narrative changes in a hurry--but this one may have the power to last.

  •  ME-02 (0+ / 0-)

    I'm praying that Troy Jackson somehow wins the primary, although this probably won't happen unfortunately.
    Jackson vs Raye would be a great race.

    •  Unlikely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ProudNewEnglander

      Cain is from more populous part of the district, and, being both economic AND social liberal has much better chances.. And Raye's campaign is far from perfect, Poliquin has at least equal chances in conservative's dominated Republican primary. General election could be another matter, but it may turn in usualy  boring liberal vs. conservative race

    •  I donated to Troy Jackson (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      willisorgeln, Paleo, lordpet8

      At first I thought I'd support Cain, since she's a liberal pro-choice woman, but Jackson's brand of economic populism really appealed to me and I decided to fork over my very small contribution to his campaign instead. His past stances against marriage equality and abortion worried me, but I think if elected to congress he'll be like Brendan Boyle--perhaps personally opposed to SSM and abortion, but unlikely to break the party line and actually oppose them when it counts.

      Proud Progressive Social Studies teacher. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 08:47:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Sen: Upset brewing at Republican convention? (9+ / 0-)

    Blue Virginia is providing updates about the Republican convention that's going on right now. It seems that Gillespie's coronation is being pushed off the rails by supporters of Shak Hill. It's quite possible that Gillespie could be pushed out of the way in favor of a Some Dude. Remember that Jim Gilmore barely won nomination over Del. Bob Marshall in 2008. Why do the Republicans keep doing this to themselves? A primary would have been easy for Gillespie - see George Allen's 65-23 win over Jamie Radtke in 2012.

  •  CA-Controller David Evans (0+ / 0-)

    David Evans got more votes in 2010 GOP primary (against Strickland) than in 2014 top-two.  This may have something to do with his performance this year.

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 10:45:19 AM PDT

  •  more on marijuana doing better in rural areas than (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv

    urban/suburban areas in Oregon.

    In HD-18 in mostly rural Marion/Clackamas counties, Obama got 39.4% of the vote, while marijuana legalization got 37.5%, a difference of less than 2 points. In neighboring HD-19 in mostly southeastern Salem, Obama got about 46.5% while legalization got 37.9%, a difference of 8.6 points.

    In HD-24 in McMinnville (outside the immediate Portland and Salem metro areas) and rural Yamhill/Washington counties, Obama got a hair above 49% while legalization got 41.7%, a difference of about 7.3 points. In neighboring HD-26 in some outer Portland suburbs of Washington and Clackamas counties, Obama got 50.3%, while legalization got 38.5%, a difference of 11.8 points.

    In HD-31 in Columbia County and some mostly rural precincts in northern Washington and NW Multnomah countes, Obama got 53.9%, while legalization got 46.3%, a difference of 7.6 points. In neighboring HD-33, in NW Portland and some suburban precincts in Washington County, Obama got 67.4% of the vote but legalization got only about 46%, a difference of over 21 points, and so it actually did worse than in HD-31 despite having a PVI 13 points more Democratic.

    Are people in the suburbs just squares?

    In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

    by James Allen on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 10:58:41 AM PDT

    •  I theorize... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      A lot of the nos in suburban Portland were "soft nos". Just anecdotally, I've spoken to people out in the suburbs who said they thought about it, but they voted no because they didn't know very much about the initiative or didn't think it was constructed as well as it should have been.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 11:44:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think some of them (0+ / 0-)

        if it passes this year I expect some of these brown precincts to have the biggest swings. Despite it doing better in the rurals I think there are fewer persuadables there.

        In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

        by James Allen on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:56:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  People in the suburbs are more likely to be Asian (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      or Latino and ethnic voters are not fond of marijuana legalization. Ethnicity is one out of many variables that influences people's views on marijuana but this variable appears particularly powerful when comparing Obama's vote share to the vote share garnered by marijuana legalization because Asians and Latinos are far from being median voters in both arenas of political life. They're much less supportive of marijuana legalization than the average voter and much more supportive of Obama.

      This is obvious but it's pretty surprising how direct the correlation between the percentage of voting age whites and the overperformance of marijuana legalization is. Here is an example in Colorado:

      (White Voting Age Pop, Marijuana Legalization support - Obama support)

      Jefferson County (82.6% ,3.02)
      Arapahoe County (68.0%, -.27)
      Adams County (58.5%, -.11)
      Douglas County (87.0%, 9.66)
      Broomfield County (82.1%, 1.52)

      I plan on testing my hypothesis and presenting my results in a diary. I also plan on looking at the death penalty and food politics. The psephology surrounding these issues astounds me.

      •  can we not use the term "ethnic voters" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        to refer to minorities, please?

        •  I am not a minority. (0+ / 0-)

          I don't want to get into a heated semantic discussion but the term "minority" is very insulting to me. We don't call white folks "majorities" or "pluralities" and I am not a number, I'm a human being.

          Damn though it's difficult to negate the fallacy of racial identity while also providing good descriptions of political behavior for various groups. There's definitely voting behavior unique to "ethnic voters" or "minorities" or "people of color" but finding the right term while staying true to my principles is difficult.

      •  not in some of these districts (0+ / 0-)

        some of them are very, very white. HD-33 has heavily Asian areas, some of the most in Oregon, though (WashCo between highway 26 and Multnomah County). But I said in a comment yesterday that in another heavily Asian area, a part of SE Portland by 82nd, that actually had less drop-off than many other (whiter) parts of Portland between Obama and legalization, so it wasn't very consistent.

        In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

        by James Allen on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 08:04:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  In the hospital today (5+ / 0-)

    Comedian Tracy Morgan, after a multiple vehicle crash in which he was a passenger (story here).

    South African President Jacob Zuma, for official reasons that sound like transparent bullshit (story here).

    Radio personality Casey Kasem, for an infected bedsore (story here).

    Best wishes to all.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 11:43:03 AM PDT

    •  As a longtime music chart fan/geek (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      Casey Kasem helped introduce me to the top 40 charts and all the stuff contained therein; I still listen to rebroadcasts of his "American Top 40" shows from the 1970s and 80s, and Ryan Seacrest's current continuation of that tradition.  BTW, Casey is a longtime progressive Democrat.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 11:22:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anybody else think Chicago may be (0+ / 0-)

    high up on the list of potential sights for the DNC? It's the home state of the current President and the birth state of the possible future candidate of our party. Besides the fact that it could easily handle an event of that size.

      •  One thing to note about site selection (4+ / 0-)

        Probably the most important thing that will decide what city gets it is the ability to raise money. This article explains it very well: For the first time in decades neither convention will receive federal funding. For a city to get picked to host the DNC or RNC, the party leadership needs to be convinced that the city is willing and able to raise the $18 million or so that they'll need.

        Beyond that, there are a lot of other unsexy but important factors that will decide what city gets the DNC or RNC. They include the number of available hotel rooms, transportation, how cooperative the local leaders are, the weather (probably will want to avoid being in the path of a hurricane), ect.

        For all the talk of "The Democrats should pick Columbus because it's in a swing state" or "the Republicans should pick Denver to close the book on Obama and the 2008 DNC," it's really going to be a ton of logistical and financial factors that decide who gets each convention.  

        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 12:04:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Those criteria guarantee... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff, LordMike

          ...that Birmingham is a non-starter, and that Columbus might not have the easiest time......though Cleveland has held conventions before, and is comparable a metropolis to Columbus.  But I think there's a lot more money in Cleveland, it's an older large city with a lot more industry.

          Phoenix is the only other newbie on the list, and is large enough to accommodate the convention.  And I bet there are plenty enough rich people there to bankroll it.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:26:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not sure about Columbus, but rest prob can (0+ / 0-)

            afford it, with the likely exception of Birmingham. Columbus is big so maybe there are business interests that can help pay for it.

            In any case, there should be no way that the DNC and RNC will select a city they aren't sure can pay for the convention, especially with federal money gone.

            Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

            by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:32:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Cleveland vs. Columbus... (4+ / 0-)

            Columbus is actually a bigger metropolis area than Cleveland and is growing, whereas Cleveland Metro is shrinking.  All the economic growth in Ohio is centered around Columbus at the moment.  It's the city that has a lot more money and a lot more industry.

            Columbus has the hotel capacity to hold a big convention, being used to hosting nearly 100,000 at OSU football games, but it's arena is not as good, and would be dependent on Ohio State University for any auxilliary facilities.  Cleveland just opened up a new convention center, has 2 large arenas for other events, and has improved its pitiful hotel capacity.  Right now, it's biggest weakness is the airport, which lost it's Continental hub status with the recent merger, although the Columbus airport isn't great shakes, either.  Cleveland has nicer blimp views, as Columbus has a pretty boring city architecture plan.

            It would be a tough call between the two.  Both cities would love to have the DNC, though.  

            "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

            by LordMike on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:10:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  LOL at Birmingham thinking they have a shot. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Too unfriendly of an environment for a DNC.

        I am hoping for one of the Ohio cities.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 12:23:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Personally I'd probably pick Philly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BluntDiplomat

          But that's just me.

        •  I really don't think that will be a factor (0+ / 0-)

          If the local leadership is willing and able to host the convention that matters far, far, far more than how the suburbs vote. Conventions (especially Republican conventions) are held all the time in areas that lean against their party: Philly, New York, Minneapolis...

          Besides, Birmingham is a Democratic city: it's the suburbs that are blood red.

          Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

          by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 12:38:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh my people are missing much here (4+ / 0-)

            Birmingham is tiny.  It has no ability to host an event of this magnitude.  The city proper has just over 200K people, the entire county triple that but still too small.  It's not going to have the hotel and transportation infrastructure for this.  The airport alone would be overwhelmed.

            The fundraising aspect, too, that Darth Jeff mentioned above disqualifies Birmingham.  The entire state is small, and the monied folks are all Republicans.  Same for neighbors to the north and west.  Georgia has plenty of rich Democrats, but then you just put the convention in Atlanta.

            Birmingham is a joke on this list.  I'm amazed it's on it at all, also given that there are no prominent Democrats in the state able to push for it.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:21:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I assume the DNC won't pick it for those reasons (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, Berliozian

              If for some reason it does get chosen, it must have proven pretty convincingly that it can handle an event of this magnitude. Not holding my breath, but I don't see why the DNC would pick it when it wasn't ready just cause.

              After what happened it Tampa in 2012 I think both committees will be a lot more careful about site selection. Tampa wasn't ready to take on the cost and the RNC had to spend an extra $30 million on the convention that could have gone to the general election efforts. I doubt either Reince Priebus or Debbie Wasserman Schultz will be that reckless.

              Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

              by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:28:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Well (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, Darth Jeff

              just to be fair (this doesn't abrogate your central point) the most useful population metric is metropolitan area. Birmingham's is 1.14 million. Still wayyyyy too small.

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:46:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Birmingham better than New York (0+ / 0-)

          New York is the biggest odd duck on that list.  Birmingham is only second oddest.

          All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

          by tommypaine on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 02:57:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It sorta makes sense (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Avedee

            Birmingham is majority-black. With the party increasingly relying on minorities for support, having a convention in a minority-majority city makes perfect sense.

            Of course, that doesn't really ameliorate its shortcomings. If I were them, I'd have gone with Atlanta.

          •  Is Birmingham even big enough? (0+ / 0-)
          •  Are you kidding? (6+ / 0-)

            New York makes perfect sense.  There is an unlimited amount of money there, and of course they have the transportation and lodging infrastructure to accommodate this event.  New York is always a good choice.

            Birmingham is a joke for reasons I and others identified in other comments.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:24:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It makes sense if this was a Shriner's convention (0+ / 0-)

              Assuming a convention location is intended to help the party, New York obviously makes no sense at all.

              If logistics were everything, Las Vegas would be the place to hold every convention every time.

              All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

              by tommypaine on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:38:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I really doubt NYC will harm the party (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, MrLiberal, gabjoh

                If we hold it in NYC, the GOP will attack us as a bunch of out of touch liberals who care about New York values but not Iowa values.

                If we hold it in Cleavland, the GOP will attack us as a bunch of out of touch liberals who care about New York, San Fransisco, Boston, and Hollywood values but not Iowa values.

                In any case, by November no persuadable voters will remember or care if the convention was in New York, Columbus, or Fargo. What will matter is if a city gets picked that can't afford the convention, and the party needs to spend millions bailing out the convention instead of in the general. That's what happened in Tampa in 2012 and probably wouldn't happen in NYC.

                As for Las Vegas, there were some big non-logistical reasons it was a risky choice.

                Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:49:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Also worth noting $ was a reason LV was dropped (0+ / 0-)
                But it's clear that the convention authority could not guarantee the venue during the accelerated timeline from the RNC -- they wanted to do in June -- and that not enough people wanted to pony up to give the RNC up-front money, as Dallas, for instance, has been willing to do.

                "There wasn't any real appetite to buy into it," one insider with intimate knowledge told me. "Unless it's on your piece of dirt on the Strip, nobody cares."

                http://www.ralstonreports.com/...

                The city's reputation was certainly a reason for the RNC's reluctance. But they may have been able to work around that, they couldn't work around uncertainty over funding.

                Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:30:19 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  It depends on what you want.. (0+ / 0-)

              the party to be perceived as. Holding a convention in NY is a good way to be perceived as the party of NY liberals. I can't stand most liberals from up there. And that's primarily because of cultural struggles between the north and the south. They're insufferable pricks who think anyone below the mason-dixon line is a racist, uneducated dirtbag.

              The Democrats can't survive as the coastal party. It needs to appeal to the south, and part of that is not being perceived as a party that holds conventions in the middle of liberalville USA. Birmingham is a bad choice, but Atlanta would be excellent, as would Phoenix. These are both big cities with a lot of minorities, yet are also fairly rich for southern cities. And most importantly, they're in Dem-trending, but still Republican states. Accelerating that trend towards the party is important. That's why we held the convention in North Carolina in 2012. It was a good choice, even if we still ended up losing NC.

              •  Why do we need to appeal to the South? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, PassionateJus

                We can win without the South. Hell, we can win with the coasts + assorted non-southern states.

                24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:55:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  My feelings on Phoenix are mixed (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem

                On one hand, it's a great strategic choice. On the other hand, Phoenix is a terrible place.

                Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 05:04:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  This is a business decision, not an electoral one (3+ / 0-)

                I just don't see any reason to assume that swing voters are going to go to the polls and care where some stage managed event they maybe tuned into on the last day was two months ago, if they even remember the location at all.

                Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 05:10:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Are all campaign rallies are worthless too? (0+ / 0-)

                  I doubt you've ever lived in a city with a major convention.  Conventions get featured on the local news day after day after day.  They function as combinations of campaign rallies and free TV commercials.  Campaign rallies and positive TV commercials have their impact on elections.  If they didn't, nobody would do them.  The impact isn't much, but it isn't nothing.  

                  If it was just a business decision, the convention would be in Las Vegas, but as you pointed out, there are electoral risks in that.  New York then could hold all the conventions, but there would be zero electoral value in that to either party.

                  A week of coverage of happy people doing supportive things for one candidate in Columbus has greater than zero value.

                  It is a business decision, but the minor electoral benefit is always part of that equation.  It's not like Philly, Cleveland and Columbus are at the top of every business/fraternal/etc convention list!  They are there because they bring something to the table for an electoral convention that isn't just hotel rooms and airport hubbiness.  And Las Vegas isn't there for the correspondingly possible negative electoral reasons.

                  All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                  by tommypaine on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 05:47:45 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  There are a bunch of hassles to add (0+ / 0-)

                    A ton of traffic and increased security for well over a week. A lot of businesses in the convention area will benefit, but for a ton of people in the metro area it's a massive hassle. I was in the NYC area during the 2004 RNC and the local news was full of a lot of problems. Yeah, maybe people would have been more understanding if it were the DNC instead, but it's not like the convention is a nice four day vacation for the area.

                    The DNC and the RNC aren't stupid. If it was clear that the conventions gave them a tangible boost in a swing state they'd only hold the conventions in swing states. And yeah, if the DNC thinks that New York and Columbus are both equally well equipped to host the convention they may as well go for it.

                    But the vast majority of what determines what city gets it is logistics and money. I'm quite sure in retrospect the RNC wishes they could have held the 2012 convention in Salt Lake City and saved $30 million and the day they lost due to Hurricane Issac.

                    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:00:04 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Also, I lived in NOLA a superbowl (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Zack from the SFV

                    No DNCs or RNCs, but I'm no stranger to hosting big events. I'm familiar with the local news coverage. I'm also familiar with the extra traffic, stretched emergency services, and other hassles.

                    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:22:39 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  It is to campaign (0+ / 0-)

                  If you select a city for the DNC you are doing one of the most important campaign acts in the city.

                  If you think electoral campaign is useful, the DNC is all campaigning and can be used by this way.

                  I think local people remember and appreciate it the election day.

                  •  I've seen no evidence of that (0+ / 0-)

                    I don't think there is any evidence the convention location effects votes in any tangible way. If anyone has any study or other evidence I think it would be worth seeing.

                    Even if there is some electoral effect, it's vital to not waste money on the convention. The first consideration for the convention needs to be if the city can pay for it. Even if you say the GOP got a boost in the Tampa area, I don't think it was worth the $30 million extra it cost the RNC.

                    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

                    by Jeff Singer on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:07:51 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  How often have you been to NY? (5+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MrLiberal, LordMike, gabjoh, BeloitDem, askew
                I can't stand most liberals from up there. And that's primarily because of cultural struggles between the north and the south. They're insufferable pricks who think anyone below the mason-dixon line is a racist, uneducated dirtbag.
                I'm not denying there isn't any cultural snobbery on the part of coastal elites. But most NYers and East Coasters aren't elites.

                As someone who grew up in Red State America, I often feel as though Red Staters often imagine there's way more antipathy towards them there actually is. Seriously, the East Coast is full of transplants, including from the South. Have you spent much time up there?

                And in any event, holding the convention in NY hasn't exactly hurt us in the past. See: 1992, for example.

              •  "insufferable pricks" "coastal party" (0+ / 0-)

                enough with antisemitic dog-whistles.

                idiosyncratic, slightly anarchist, darwinist, moral relativist, fan of satire

                by bonzo925 on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 06:36:24 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Of course, NYC (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh, Zack from the SFV

              would cost attendees 3X as much as any of the alternatives.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:01:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Birmingham is an odd contender (6+ / 0-)

        Does it even have adequate accommodations for a convention? If I recall, one of the issues with Charlotte is that it wasn't really well equipped to handle a convention as well as lodging went. With Birmingham being smaller, I can imagine that problem would be more pronounced.

        28, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 12:37:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I knew Florida cities would be eliminated (0+ / 0-)

        They were never seriously going to hold a convention here after seeing what happened to the 2012 GOP convention in Tampa.  Hurricane season makes it too unpredictable to hold it down here.  Philly or one of the Ohio cities would seem the most sensible for 2016.

    •  I think there are a couple of obvious problems... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      anshmishra

      With Chicago.

      One, there's the unpleasant memory of 1968 -- an event that is nearly a half-century in the rear-view mirror, but not such ancient history that it wouldn't make for a smashing narrative to compare anything that went wrong at or surrounding the DNC to the 1968 fiasco and ask, "Is Chicago a cursed city for the DNC!?!?!?" God, that could get so annoying really fast.

      Two, in terms of how the game of politics is played in this country, let's suffice to say Chicago is not a sterling example of citizen democracy in action, and its reputation reflects that. That angle might be less interesting than the "curse!!1" meme to the CNNs and MSNBCs of the world, but Republicans would beat it to death, and that could get annoying pretty fast, too.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 11:50:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Should be Columbus or Cleveland (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, madmojo, Jervill

      Birmingham, forget about.  Phoenix is too hot.  New York too familiar.  Philadelphia would be third.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 01:11:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Air conditioning (0+ / 0-)

        Is the convention normally held out of doors?  There are basically no commercial premises without A/C in Phoenix, and very few residential ones.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 02:55:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm assuming they'll need to go outside (0+ / 0-)

          at some points.

          "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

          by Paleo on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 07:43:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Phoenix is on Mountain Standard (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, GoUBears

            So they are the same time as California right now.  That means the sessions would start at about 1-130pm and run until 8 or 9.  That coincides directly with the hottest hours of the day.  The average high temperature outside those hours in July is under 100 degrees with low to moderate humidity.  From midnight to 8am it's under 90 (average high).

            If the convention is held in the Eastern time zone, the sessions will start about 430-5pm, meaning the outside temperatures will reach peak before the convention starts.

            Unless they plan to play golf during the sessions, outdoor temperature shouldn't be much of a concern.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:37:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-07 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Leonard Lance did terrible in the primary on Tuesday, I am curious to see if there is an opening here, we have a decent candidate is Clinton Mayor Janice Kovach.

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

    by SCDem4 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 12:32:11 PM PDT

  •  Surprise at GOP convention in Indiana (4+ / 0-)

    We are now at the second ballot for State Treasurer, and Richard Mourdock deputy in the Treasurer's Office Kelly Mitchell led the second ballot and knocked off businessman Don Bates, Jr. It is now unto the third ballot with Marion Mayor Wayne Seybold, the establishment favorite. Howey sees Mitchell as the favorite given the antagonism between Bates and Seybold. A big factor will be how many delegates stay for the next ballot in Ft. Wayne and how many go home.

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    And Mourdock? He just stepped in it again. he compared the U.S. currently to Germany's financial situation when the Nazis took over Germany.

    http://www.indystar.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 01:39:57 PM PDT

  •  Counterfactual (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    If Hillary had eked out victory in 2008 and gone on to have a presidency comparable to Obama's, what sort of position would Obama now be in to win the 2016 primary?

    •  Difficult to say (0+ / 0-)

      Obama would likely not have become Sec. of State, so he would have more of a record in the Senate. I assume he would position himself as decently progressive, but not as anti-establishment as his '08 supporters would like - no Russ Feingold, more Dick Durbin. He would probably still be the favorite, but definitely not an unopposed one. For one, Hillary will have a VP - Bayh? - who will probably run and who could probably, depending on his and Clinton's performance, campaign as a centrist uniter. Obama would therefore have to run to the left, somewhat undermining his appeal with the general electorate.

      Also, the coalitions might be different, with Hillary having an easier time with white women and less young people and minorities. She might being less of these into the voter pool, but keep more other voters. No clue on how to extrapolate this.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 03:23:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  he'd be the favorite (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Berliozian, gabjoh, Chachy

      As the close runner-up in 2008, he would likely be the prohibitive favorite just as Hillary is now. No one else would have a remotely comparable donor or volunteer base. The media would likely be talking him up as being able to provide a fresh start after the relentless partisan negativity of 2008-16 and 28 uninterrupted years of Clinton/Bush rule.  

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 03:40:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I also wonder what path Obama would have taken (0+ / 0-)

      if he wasn't nominated for a cabinet post.  If "Game Change" is to be believed, Obama was very unhappy in the Senate and in the event he decided not to run for president in 2008 (or lost), he was planning on returning to Illinois to run for Governor in 2010 (which would have probably been a primary challenge to Blagojevich's attempt at a 3rd term, as "F*cking Golden" would have never happened).  So in the event we're talking about nominating "Governor Obama" in 2016, and assuming conditions in Illinois are similar to what they are now...yeesh.

      Oh counterfactuals.  The possibilities!

      28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 09:24:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt he actually would have run for governor (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat, jncca

        The IL governorship is something of a poisoned chalice, and it's likely he would have been encouraged by associates and colleagues to stay put -- there'd be little gain in removing himself from national issues, especially given how corrupt and difficult Illinois politics is.

  •  WI-AG: Richards wins DPW straw poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    167 delegates voted for Richards, 111 voted for Susan Happ, and 54 voted for Ismael Ozanne.

    Looks like a two-way race between Richards and Happ, with Richards being the favorite.

    Link

  •  OFF-TOPIC: Belmont Stakes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    I'm not a fan of horse racing, but I'll go ahead and predict that Matterhorn will win the Belmont Stakes. That would mean that no Triple Crown would be awarded since California Chrome won the first two Triple Crown horse races (Kentucky Derby and Preakness).

    •  And not surprisingly California Chrome (3+ / 0-)

      Failed to finish off the Crown.  No shock there.  We've gone 36 years without one and California Chrome, while being a decent horse, never struck me as the horse to break the streak.

      My grandmother actually attended about 30 straight Kentucky Derbys before she retired to Florida.  The last one she saw was the 1973 Derby won by Secretariat, widely considered one of the 2 or 3 greatest horses of all-time.  Secretariat still holds the track record for all three Triple Crown events.  I doubt his Belmont record will ever be broken considering it's a full 2 seconds faster than any other horse ever ran it.

      •  Overaggressive workout last Saturday? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Chrome's owner has a good point that none of the horses to run ahead of him had competed in both earlier legs of the Triple Crown.

        No question that California Chrome is not in the same class as some earlier Triple Crown winners, or even losers like Sham.  Breeders aren't breeding for the distance or the durability to win a Triple Crown anymore.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:47:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That really stinks. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        I was having hope that this one would finally do it. :(

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:13:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA unprocessed ballots report (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    Straight from the SoS:

    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 04:36:27 PM PDT

  •  Virginia Democratic Gerrymander (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, HoosierD42, Taget

     photo ScreenShot2014-06-07at74936PM_zps74c95040.png

    VA-03 - 67/33 Obama - Richmond, Danville, Roanoke
    VA-11 - 64/35 Obama - Manassas, Woodbridge, Fredericksburg
    VA-08 - 62/37 Obama - Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax
    VA-02 - 60/40 Obama - Va Beach, Norfolk, Hampton
    VA-10 - 59/40 Obama - Falls Church, Reston, Leesburg
    VA-04 - 57/42 Obama - Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News
    VA-07 - 54/45 Obama - Richmond, Charlottesville, Staunton

    VA-01 - 57/42 McCain - Gloucester, Ashland, Culpeper
    VA-06 - 58/41 McCain - Winchester, Lexington, Salem
    VA-09 - 59/40 McCain - Bristol, Blacksburg, Cave Spring
    VA-05 - 62/37 McCain - Colonial Heights, Lynchburg, Bedford

    District 3 is majority black and district 11 is only plurality white (44%).

     photo ScreenShot2014-06-07at75338PM_zps7cb76d99.png
     photo ScreenShot2014-06-07at75400PM_zpsb8316477.png
     photo ScreenShot2014-06-07at75044PM_zpsfe6f3214.png

  •  CA-Controller: Saturday 4:30 PM Update (9+ / 0-)

    And just like that, Yee is now in 3rd, and Evans is 4th. However, it's still all very close, with 1,760 votes separating 2nd from 3rd and 1,837 votes separating 3rd from 4th.

         Tammy D. Blair
    (Party Preference: DEM)    171,625   
    5.0%
         John A. Pérez
    (Party Preference: DEM)    732,688   
    21.5%
         Betty T. Yee
    (Party Preference: DEM)    730,928   
    21.5%
         David Evans
    (Party Preference: REP)    729,091   
    21.4%
         Ashley Swearengin
    (Party Preference: REP)    846,628   
    24.9%
         Laura Wells
    (Party Preference: GRN)    190,543   
    5.6%

    In other races: CA-24, it seems that Justin Fareed has made up some ground on Chris Mitchum. Mitchum clings onto 2nd place by just 498 votes (20,470 to 19,972).

    In CA-15, Ellen Corbett is 721 votes behind the Republican in 2nd place.

    28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

    by BluntDiplomat on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:11:35 PM PDT

    •  Can Yee (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV

      still pull this off?

    •  I don't know why the CA GOP is pinning hopes on (7+ / 0-)

      Swearengin. Sure, she seems to be decently competent, having won an open seat in the Fresno mayoral election in 2008 by a comfortable margin (although the election was officially nonpartisan) while Obama was winning big. The CA GOP also doesn't have many good options. But the Central Valley is a terrible base for a statewide Republican. It's just not that big in terms of votes; in 2010, Orange County cast more votes than the entire Central Valley south of Sacramento County (for good measure, I'm also including the Sierra Nevada counties south of Amador). And because of that, Democrats can win solely on strength in the coastal counties (plus a few heavily Democratic inland counties like Yolo). Barbara Boxer is proof of that. In fact, if you take Boxer's 2010 race and suppose she gets zero votes in the Central Valley, using the most expansive possible definition (from Shasta County all the way down to Kern), Boxer still wins with a few hundred thousand votes to spare.

      There's only two ways a Republican could conceivably win in California nowadays (top two shenanigans aside). One is to perform extremely well in Orange, San Diego, and the Inland Empire, and shear hard into Democratic margins in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County. Steve Cooley almost did that in 2010. He won Orange County with over 60% of the vote (Harris only got 31% there), held Harris below 60% in San Mateo and Sonoma Counties, nearly got 40% in Contra Costa and Los Angeles, and performed respectably in Santa Clara. So that's one way for a Republican to win in California. The other way is to run against Cruz Bustamante.

      If Swearengin truly is a "rising star" (which is doubtful), it appears to me that Republicans have picked the ideal way to snuff her out, first by running her statewide, and second by running her in a downballot race where voters likely won't know much about the candidates and vote mostly based on party.

      •  She didn't do all that great (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        except in her home turf.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:08:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't read much into the primary (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          The controller race got zero attention, zero. I suspect it was an afterthought for about 99% of the voters.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:20:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, you're likely right. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV

            I was just thinking aloud.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:22:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Except look at the voting patterns (0+ / 0-)

            Some places Evans destroys Swearengin.  

            This race actually suggest people pay attention to downballot races.  This isn't four candidates getting about the same percentage everywhere.  Some areas are wildly different than others.  And it isn't just Latino/Asian stuff like you might expect from the Dems.  

            The two Republicans had very different north/south appeal, and then also Central Valley/everywhere else differences.

            It is harder to guesstimate eventual results because Evans did relatively quite well in some NorCal democratic areas, while doing lousy in LA... while Perez didn't do so well in some of the whiter Dem areas while kicking ass in LA.

            It's too bad Blair peeled off as many votes as she did, because this would have been even more interesting with just the four plus the Green.

            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

            by tommypaine on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:28:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  This doesn't say anything of the sort (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, BeloitDem

              Rather, it shows that campaigns were targeting different voters in different regions. It doens't show that people "pay attention," because by and large people don't "pay attention" to anything other than presidential races, gubernatorial elections, and senatorial elections. Everything else is dictated by a complex mix of factors including partisanship, economic indicators, presidential approval, and campaign effects on a small percentage of the population (both persuasion and turnout).

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:40:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  What is this comment supposed to mean? (0+ / 0-)

                You just said the voters didn't pay attention, then you said they paid attention to campaigns targeting.

                So again, obviously it means people in different areas paid attention to something since people in many individual areas voted very similarly, but different areas of the state voted very differently in the state.

                Perhaps the point you meant to make is people were manipulated and didn't understand the choices, but it's an objective fact that in this downballot race voters in different areas voted extremely different from each other.

                All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                by tommypaine on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 11:25:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  No, I didn't not say that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh

                  I'm saying that voters don't pay attention to anything of their own volition.

                  Saying that voters pay attention to something places the onus on them to be proactive in their approach to politics. The vast majority of people do no such thing.

                  On the other hand, campaigns target specific individuals who are easy to persuade or who need a bit of pushing to turn out to vote (if the campaign knows they'll support them). These voters really aren't "paying attention" in the way that you're assuming they do, but are rather just being "touched". Generally, campaigns want to make contact with voters four or five times through multiple methods, because voters do not pay attention.

                  24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 12:19:17 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Um, no (0+ / 0-)

                    Your comments are just your assumptions, which are obviously confusing things for no apparent reason.

                    I neither said nor implied voters paid attention to the degree they had a clue what they were doing.  They could have; or they could have paid attention to the degree that campaigns lead them around by the nose.  

                    Basically the distinction you are inventing isn't important or even interesting.  

                    Again, you can't dispute the actual results.  People in localities voted similar while the same sorts of people voted differently in other localities.  This could be due to something as basic as one area was blanketed with yard signs, which gave people in that area their only information about this race, while there were no signs in another area.  Or it could be people in Fresno, gasp, actually knew the name of their Mayor.

                    Whatever, doesn't matter at all.  It just matters that this race is an example of a downballot race where voters plainly, deliberately, consciously chose one candidate over the other.

                    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                    by tommypaine on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 01:06:51 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You're lying through your teeth. (0+ / 0-)

                      You said this:

                      This race actually suggest people pay attention to downballot races.
                      This is false.

                      And no, my comments are not just my assumptions, my comments are informed by decades of political science research.

                      Furthermore, I'm not disputing actual results (as you say), I'm giving you a more plausible explanation of those results than your own explanation.

                      This statement...

                      It just matters that this race is an example of a downballot race where voters plainly, deliberately, consciously chose one candidate over the other.
                      ... is fundamentally different than the one you offered earlier and which I quoted above. Yes, the consciously chose someone else, but what I'm telling you is that this is likely because of campaign effects and targeting as well as other factors that have nothing to do with "voters paying attention to downballot races."

                      It is you who is confusing the issue for no apparent reason and, frankly, I think this comment is better directed at yourself:

                      Basically the distinction you are inventing isn't important or even interesting.

                      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 01:12:55 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  It seems SD and Alameda County both reported some (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:11:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "What-if?" Game: 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    Predict the state of each of these races if these following scenarios occurred:

    WV-Sen:

    1. Rockefeller didn't retire, and election is Rockefeller vs. Capito.

    2. Nick Preservati is nominee instead of Tennant. Election is Preservati vs Capito.

    3. Tennant is nominee for us, and well-funded Tea Party candidate defeats Tennant in primary.

    IA-Sen:

    1. Tom Latham got in for GOP, and Braley doesn't enter, leaving us with a B-list candidate like Mike Gronstal.

    GA-Sen:

    1. Democrats recruited John Barrow instead of Nunn. Republican primary went the same way as it did in reality.

    KY-Sen:

    Ashley Judd turned out not to be a stalking horse, and is our candidate. Election is McConnell vs Judd.

    •  On #3 do you mean 'defeats Capito in primary' ? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, Zack from the SFV

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 06:58:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ok (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      1. Capito 53 Rock 47
      2. Capito 56 Prez 44
      3. Tennant 54 tbag 46

      IA. Latham 50 Gronstal 50, goes to photo finish

      GA. Kingston 52 Barrow 48, and GOP wins GA12

      KY. McConnell 57 Judd 43

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:16:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That margin for Rockefeller v. Capito-Moore (0+ / 0-)

        Is about what I would have predicted.  Mid-high single-digit loss.  WV has changed and Rockefeller is much more liberal than Manchin.  I really don't think he would have won.

    •  I'll go with (0+ / 0-)

      WV-Sen:

      1. Rockefeller loses to Capito-Moore by mid single-digits.  Rockefeller's numbers were in the toilet prior to his retirement announcement.  This just isn't the same WV that elected him to may times in the past.  He'll well left of Manchin, which is the kind of Dem it would take to win in WV these days.

      2. Landslide Capito-Moore win.

      3. Probably somewhere between tossup and tilt R.

      IA-Sen:

      1. Leans R race at best.

      GA-Sen:

      1. Race is about the same as it will play out with Nunn in the race.  Nunn has the family name recognition to offset any advantage Barrow would have had.

      KY-Sen:

      1. Judd loses by double-digits.

    •  I'll bite (0+ / 0-)

      Rockefeller > Capito - 52 > 48
      Preservati < Capito - 43 < 57
      Tennant > Tea Party - 52 > 48
      Gronstal < Latham - 45 < 55
      Barrow < Kingston - 46 < 54
      Judd < McConnell - 42 < 58

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:34:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll play (0+ / 0-)

      WV:

      1: Comes down to the wire.
      2: Who?
      3: Assume you meant Capito is defeated in the primary. I'd say likely-D.

      IA:

      1: I'd say lean-R. Honestly, I'd have said tilt-R if it were Braley against Latham. Latham represents the swingy part of IA.

      GA:

      I'd put it at lean-R instead of tilt-D as it is now.

      KY:

      Likely-R instead of tilt-D as it is now. KY will never elect a hollywood star.

    •  My thoughts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      WV-Sen

      1) Likely R race

      2) Don't know much about Preservati to give you an answer

      3) Since I'm assuming you meant "well-funded Tea Party candidate defeats Capito in primary", Lean D race

      IA-Sen

      Tossup race, maybe with a slight tilt toward the GOP, although Gronstal is one of the more high-profile B-list Dems in IA (specifically, he's the Democratic floor leader in the Iowa State Senate).

      GA-Sen

      Tossup race, although Barrow's coalition would be more rural and less suburban than that of Nunn.

      KY-Sen

      Safe R race, Judd would perform close to Obama's 2012 numbers in Kentucky.

    •  Rockefeller 54-46 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv
    •  Sure, why not (0+ / 0-)

      WV-Sen:
      1. I'll say Rockefeller 53, Capito 47, though I could easily see this one going either way
      2. Capito 57, Preservati 43
      3. Tennant 55, TP 45

      IA-Sen: Latham 54, Gronstal 46

      GA-Sen: I'll go against the CW here and say Barrow 51, Kingston 49, which is about the same as I'd predict with Nunn

      KY-Sen: McConnell 55, Judd 45

      27, male, Dem, born and raised in MO-08, currently living in MO-04.

      by ModernDayWarrior on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 11:08:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not alone in thinking this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, ChadmanFL, Avedee

      Byrd gave Rocky significant "cover" as the more liberal but highly regarded senior senator. Byrd was bang for the buck the most liberal senator in a red state for years. He was never going to lose an election, and as long as he was there, Rocky was never going to lose an election. Even though senior senator merely denotes seniority, Byrd was truly "senior" to Rocky and gave him appropriate political cover.

  •  IN House District 81 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeninSC, HoosierD42, gabjoh

    There is an interesting guy named Thad Gerardot running for a state representative seat here in Indiana.  If elected, he would be the state's first openly gay state representative.  He previously worked for Freedom Indiana, which fought to keep a constitutional amendment banning marriage equality off the ballot.

    Campaign site
    Huffington Post article

    •  Data on IN HD-81 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeninSC, gabjoh

      Here is a map. I drew it out roughly on DRA, and it voted about 51% Obama in 2008. However, given Allen County's 6% swing against Obama and the fact that HD-81 probably swung more since it has very few minorities (it's nearly 80% non-Hispanic white), I would guess it voted somewhere around 43% Obama in 2012.

    •  Great links! Thank you for the introduction (0+ / 0-)

      to such an interesting young candidate, mts87!

      Welcome to Daily Kos. If you have any questions about how to participate here, you can learn more at the Community Guidelines, the Knowledge Base, and the Site Resource Diaries. Diaries labeled "Open Thread" are also great places to ask. We look forward to your contributions.
      ~~ from the DK Partners & Mentors Team.

      "The opposite of war isn't peace, it's CREATION." _ Jonathan Larson, RENT -9.62, -9.13

      by BeninSC on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:14:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Martin Carbaugh defeated incumbent (0+ / 0-)

      Democrat Rep. Win Moses (D-Ft. Wayne) in 2012 after Republicans packed Dems into HD-80 to create an 80.2% Dem district, which is majority-minority (and nearly 40% black). Win Moses had been around Ft. Wayne for a long time, and had a colorful past, and if he couldn't win in a presidential year, we aren't going to win it back in an off year when the state Democratic party is in shambles, and looking at potential further losses in the General Assembly, and better potential targets elsewhere.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 07:21:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, SaoMagnifico, pademocrat

    Granted, this is from a conservative blog, but Sam McCann, a Republican state senator who represents IL-SD-50, which includes part of Springfield and mostly rural areas between Quincy and the Metro-East, is reportedly considering running for governor as either an independent candidate or a third-party candidate.

    Despite McCann usually being thought of as being aligned with the Tea Party, he's reportedly trying to win the support of teachers' unions for a possible gubernatorial bid. McCann would probably pull more votes from Bruce Rauner than from Pat Quinn, although he'd pull votes from both.

    In Illinois, the filing deadline for independent and minor party candidates is June 23, so McCann has very little time in order to get on the ballot if he decides to go through with a run. If McCann does make the ballot, he'd probably be able to get 7-15% of the vote in the general election, which would probably give Quinn a second full term as Governor of Illinois.

    •  He wouldn't get 7-15% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PSUCentrePA

      He'd be lucky to get 5%, just like almost every other highly touted independent candidate.

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 08:41:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Weird (0+ / 0-)

      Could you expound on why you think a candidate courting teachers unions would pull more from the GOP candidate than the Dem candidate?  That seems flatly counterintuitive unless that's not his main strategy and you just kind of threw that in.  Otherwise, at the very most it sound like his candidacy would be a wash, and more likely that it makes Quinn's chance harder, not easier.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 08:54:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  McCann is very conservative on social issues (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ChadmanFL

        That's why he'd probably pull more votes from Rauner, who is not well-liked by social conservatives, than he would from Quinn.

        Of course, Rod Blagojevich won re-election in 2006 despite having to face a third-party candidate who ran to his left and got a little over 10% of the vote, so it wouldn't be unthinkable for someone like McCann to pull more votes from Quinn than Rauner.

  •  VA-Sen (7+ / 0-)

    Ed Gillespie wins the party's nomination:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Interesting how the erstwhile party of Lincoln displays pictures of Confederate generals at their convention.  For those who wonder why the GOP can't seem to attract minority voters, you do know there was something called slavery they were trying to preserve?  

    38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Sat Jun 07, 2014 at 10:09:02 PM PDT

  •  WATN: Former Ohio SoS Jennifer Brunner (7+ / 0-)

    and former Ohio Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy are running for seats on the Ohio Tenth District Court of Appeals, which covers Franklin County.

  •  538's updated Senate predix (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Klugstah

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/...

    What do people think?  I feel like this model undersells Grimes's chances, and Cotton being favored still seems wrong to me (despite Nate's explanation), though I can't find much else with which to quibble.

    •  sigh, Nate Silver... (13+ / 0-)

      Oregon at 95%, Kansas at 99%, despite neither opposition party really standing much of a chance there. No wonder he predicts a Republican takeover.

      He used to be a respectable dude. Now he's just clickbait. And then there's this utter dreck:

      The quality of polling is somewhat problematic. Much of it comes from firms like Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports with dubious methodologies
      Anyone who compares PPP to Ras is f'ing stupid.
      •  Don't Like the Percentages (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, gabjoh

        The problem is that when you are dealing with seats like Kansas, or to a lesser degree Oregon, they are simply not going to fall without a complicated series of events that likely goes beyond both the national environment and anything that is predictable. In the case of Kansas that would be Roberts losing or suffering from a scandal vastly greater than anything that has hitherto occurred. That is not impossible, but we probably don't have enough information to quantify that. If such information exists, which we have no way of knowing right now, his odds of losing are probably much higher than 1%, whereas without it I would venture they are much less than even 1%.

        The same is true to a lesser extent for Oregon. I can imagine Merkley losing, but not in the normal course of events. A Bob Etheridge moment combined with a wave might do it, but I do not know how that can be quantified. So I find it hard to get annoyed with the 5% chance of a GOP victory, since Nate unlike the Post seems to grasp that these are not independent events.

        I suspect the same is true of Arkansas. I think Pryor probably is marginally ahead right now. But if I were to project forward as a gut call based on what I know about Arkansas' recent history, what happened to the Democrats in the state senate in 2010, and Terry McAuliffe's performance in SW Virginia in 2013 v. the polls, I think a narrow Cotton win is probably slightly more likely than the alternative. As such, 55/45 probably looks right to me.

      •  I don't have much to quibble with.... (7+ / 0-)

        ...in regards to his predictions.  I feel that they are pretty on the mark at the moment.  His feud with PPP is bizarre and makes no sense at all.

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:32:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I missed the dig at PPP (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, Jorge Harris

        That's just indefensible...

      •  especially in comparison to the firms (0+ / 0-)

        that have been showing Cotton ahead.

        In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

        by James Allen on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 10:31:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JacobNC

        PPP is not perfect, but it's near the top, regardless.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 10:56:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  what's wrong with 95% for Oregon and 99% for (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Trosk

        Kansas? That pretty much means Safe Dem and Safe Repub respectively. Even DKE has Oregon rated as Likely Dem and not safe...

        My only disagreement here is that Kentucky is probably something like 60-40 in favor of McConnell. But he is also right that there is not much high quality polling this cycle (with exception of PPP)

        •  DKE's rating is too generous to Wehby (0+ / 0-)

          In reality, laws are always useful to those with possessions and harmful to those who have nothing. - Rousseau, The Social Contract, note 5

          by James Allen on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 06:30:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Because Oregon.. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jorge Harris

          is not at 95%. Nowhere close. Merkley is safe, 100% safe. I'd even say there's a greater chance of us taking Kansas than Republicans taking Oregon - and we only have an infinitesimally small chance of taking Kansas.

          The problem with Monte Carlo models is that several of these "95%" cases add up to really skew the numbers in a particular direction. Essentially, the model is saying, "Democrats have more seats available to be contested this cycle." Well congratu-freakin-lations, Mr. Silver! Think we puzzled that one out ourselves.

          As it stands, there are six seats Republicans hold with a 99% chance of winning or greater. Democrats have only one. And this has an effect:

          Let's just consider the odds of holding all the seats which NS has us at 90% chance or more to keep. This is to say, what are the odds of keeping all of RI, NM, DE, IL, MA, HA, NJ, OR, VA, and MN?

          69.8%. Yep.

          •  Ok but we know the overall prediction of holding (0+ / 0-)

            the Senate is irrelevant. It comes down to individual races, so it's not that big of a deal. I'm not arguing that Oregon isn't safe, but come on DKE is lead by rational people who have reached a more bearish conclusion than he! Where's the kicking and screaming against them? Is Silver's model really that "egregious" on face value?

            I'm not defending Silver 100%, but everyone here loves to get all up in arms about his predictions. Clearly he is more bullish on the OR race than DKE, so should we get all "congratu-freakin-lations" on DKE's ass too? It's seriously not the worst model out there, and it is much more rational than others (i.e. Washington Post fuckbaggery, Sabatao, etc).

    •  I predict Nate will (8+ / 0-)

      call all (or almost all) of the Senate races correctly on the day before the general.  I predict that his estimates will improve a lot after he moves to the formal model and starts fine-tuning it.

      In the meantime, he is trying to use his gut political judgement to replace numerical rigor, and that is not where his strengths lie.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 08:54:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  seems about right to me...at least 6 months away (0+ / 0-)
  •  South Dakota Governor Poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal, ChadmanFL

    Rasmussen Poll

    South Dakota Governor
    Daugaard (R) 55%
    Wismer (D) 35%

  •  Cool Story: I Met a Civil Rights Icon Thursday (8+ / 0-)

    Hello all. I apologize for being away. Given all of the primaries and other interesting things that have been happening, I wish I were posting here, but I am trying to devote my time to something professional, e.g. making a big career before I am institutionalized.

    But anyway, on to something more important. I figured I'd post this here because this is one group of people who'd get it. This past week, I met a civil rights icon. Her name is Ruby Bridges. I'll be honest and admit that I thought I had never heard of her. When I looked her up, her story was came back to me a little bit. Still, her history wasn't as obvious to me as, say Rosa Parks'. Read the link above if you're drawing a blank or are only vaguely familiar.

    I went to my brother's elementary school where he's a fifth-grade teacher to see her speak. She's older now, at 59, but apparently maintains a pretty active lifestyle as far as traveling around the country. I was only there because my brother called me to ask me if I could pick up nine-year-old niece and drive her there to see her, as she had just done a book report on her and would love to meet her. He told me I could stay and watch, which is what I did.

    If you've read the link above, or if you've seen the TV movie, you'll realize what she was up against. Among other things, President Eisenhower (or Kennedy?) had federal marshals escort her to school, all the white kids' parents pulled them out of school, the only person who would teach her was a transplant from Boston, and people were protesting her presence, even going so far as to hold up a child's coffin. All of this, for a little girl who wanted to attend school. It seems so surreal, but of course, it happened.

    Aside from the fact that it was cool to meet someone who persevered through that stuff, even for just a moment, I liked the fact that the kids seemed to get it, despite the presentation being about two hours long. In particular, as I was driving my niece to my brother's school, I tried to pick her brains a little bit. She's always been a little bit precocious, mostly in good ways, and that came through here. She was telling me how her friend's brother, the adopted African son of a couple my brother and his wife live near, couldn't go to school with her and her friends if the old system were still in place, and how she didn't care what color someone was so long as they were a nice person with a good personality, etc.

    I guess you could call me one proud uncle.

    I wanted to approach Ms. Bridges at the end, to see if she was as disgusted with the attempts to discourage voting as I am, but the kids were mauling her to get pictures and autographs and I had to run.

    Anyway, I hope to be back to posting here regularly soon rather than later and I hope everyone is doing well.

    "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 08:41:32 AM PDT

  •  VA Sen: ROFL @ Politico! (13+ / 0-)

    "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

    by LordMike on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 10:48:59 AM PDT

  •  Maryland Governor Primary Poll (5+ / 0-)

    The Baltimore Sun Poll

    Governor
    Democratic Primary
    Brown 41%
    Gansler 20%
    Mizeur 15%

    Republican Primary
    Hogan 27%
    Craig 12%
    Lollar 12%
    George 6%

    http://touch.baltimoresun.com/...

    The article said that the GOP primary is much more volatile.  The only other Republican that I think could pose a threat to Hogan winning is Craig.  Looney-toon George didn't seem to catch on lol.  Brown vs. Gansler has been an interesting race, I am just really surprised no one else besides Del. Mizeur got into the primary.

  •  WATN? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux, KingofSpades, gabjoh, askew

    Richard Mourdock has gone Godwin:

    "The people of Germany in a free election selected the Nazi party because they made great promises that appealed to them because they were desperate and destitute. And why is that? Because Germany was bankrupt," he told a supportive crowd at the Indiana Republican Convention in Fort Wayne, according to the Indy Star.

    "The truth is, 70 years later, we are drifting on the tides toward another beachhead and it is the bankruptcy of the United States of America," he added.

    "Over the next several years, every time a program began to fall apart, Mr. Hitler's party was very, very good at dividing Germany by pointing to this group or that group," he said. "First they went after their political opponents. Then they went after the aristocrats. Then they went after the trade unionists. And ultimately of course they went after the Jews. They deprived them of their property, their rights, their citizenship, and for millions their humanity. Because they were bankrupt!"

    To equate providing millions of Americans with health insurance to killing millions of people in extermination camps is, to put it mildly, flatly absurd.
    •  As I said above, what an a-hole. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao

      And thank heavens he lost the general election in 2012.

      And he completely screwed up his history.  The Nazi party, at their peak, only won 44.7% of the Reichstag's seats under free elections.  It was when President von Hindenburg made the misguided decision to appoint Hitler to the open position of Reich Chancellor (under the advice of people who said it was the only way von Hindenburg could control him).  When Hitler absorbed the presidency after the death of Von Hindenburg, he banned all other political parties.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 12:12:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        Germany's economy was on the rise from the horrific mega-inflation, which ended a decade before Hitler's party peaked.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 12:14:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I find that people making Nazi comparisons (18+ / 0-)

      always have at best a tenuous grasp on the history of that period. It is not true that Hitler came to power as the result of a free election. In July of 1932, the Nazi Party made large gains in the Reichstag election and obtained a plurality of seats, but not a majority. The two anti-republican parties, the Nazis and the Communists, together had a majority of the seats, but obviously would not form a coalition; this "negative majority" means that no majority government was possible. The sitting chancellor, Franz von Papen of the conservative Catholic Centre Party, continued as a caretaker; a snap election was held in November of 1932. This was the last truly free election in Germany before the Nazi seizure of power, and in fact by November the German public had cooled down a bit. The Nazi Party actually lost a lot of seats in November 1932, but still had a plurality; thanks to gains by the Communists, there was still a negative majority.

      The Weimar Constitution gave the President of Germany broad reserve powers, and Papen governed by emergency decrees of President Hindenburg, who was then senile and very reliant on Papen. This had been going on for some time, since the Reichstag even before 1932 was heavily fractured. A couple weeks before the July 1932 election, Papen had Hindenburg issue a decree dismissing the Social Democratic Minister-President (equivalent to governor) Otto Braun of Prussia, and Papen himself took over the Prussian government. The pretext was that Braun's government couldn't quell violent spats between the Nazis and the Communists, but the real reason was that the Prussian government had control over the Prussian police. Note that Prussia was by far the largest state in Germany; its position was roughly comparable to the position of England within the United Kingdom. In January of 1933, Papen convinced Hindenburg to appoint Hitler as chancellor, because Papen thought he could control Hitler; Hermann Goering was appointed interior minister for Prussia.

      A new snap election was held in March 1933. The previous month was marked by violence against Communists and Social Democrats, and most of their publications were banned. The Prussian police, now under Goering's control, took no effective action against the Nazis. Even the Centre Party, which was generally more moderate than Papen and actually did not support Papen's governments, was heavily targeted. Suppression of Communists intensified after the Reichstag fire, which Hitler blamed on the Communists. On the day of the vote, Goering ordered members of the Nazi paramilitary organizations to work with the Prussian police to "monitor" the vote, and suppression and terror were used in other parts of Germany too. Despite all of this, the Nazi Party still failed to get a majority, and had to form a coalition with the German National People's Party, the right-wing nationalist party that had supported Papen.

      The new Hitler government outlawed the Communists and vacated their seats, accounting for one-eighth of the Reichstag. Still, Hitler and his partners had nowhere near the two-thirds majority necessary to enact constitutional changes. But then the Centre Party sold its soul and agreed to vote for the Enabling Act; in return, Hitler promised that the Centre Party would remain legal (a promise he soon broke) and that Catholics would receive certain protections. During the Reichstag vote, the building was swarming with SA members who were there to intimidate the legislators. Goering, as President of the Reichstag, changed its rules so that members absent without excuse could be counted as present, so the Social Democrats couldn't boycott to deny a quorum. It is therefore very wrong to say that Hitler came to power democratically. He was only able to become a dictator after a series of extraordinary decrees, measures, and blunders by others.

      Further, it seems that every Republican making Nazi comparisons always forgets a few additional points. One is that the first group targeted by the Nazis was the Communists. Another is the remarkable courage of the (socialist) Social Democrats. Otto Wels, the leader of the Social Democrats, was the only person to speak against passage of the Enabling Act. In the vote, every non-socialist voted for the act; every Social Democrat present (many had already fled or been arrested) voted against it, even though the act was sure to pass, and SA troops were all around them.

    •  This honestly shouldn't be surprising (0+ / 0-)

      This is far from the first time someone prominent on the right has compared the ACA to either Nazi Germany or American slavery.

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:19:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-31: Gooch's team is full of nutjobs: (4+ / 0-)

    Get a load of these:

    Jeff Horseman @JeffHorseman  ·  Jun 6
    From Gooch strategist @JeffCorless - "Lesli Gooch will stand up here like Republicans stood up in Florida in 2000." 1/2
    Jeff Horseman @JeffHorseman  ·  Jun 6
    "We're not going to let Democrats steal another election. Our tax rates and our healthcare depend on it." 2/2
    Hey, it's Dem vs. Repub for the general, so it's not like it's automatically going Dem (though it's very likely).  Repub vs. Repub (and the reverse) in the general would be much more undemocratic.

    Good reply here:

    Brett Morrow ‏@Morrow_Brett  Jun 6
    .@JeffHorseman But weren't Republicans in FL in 2000 trying to STOP votes from being counted? cc: @JeffCorless
    More, this time from Gooch herself:
    Jeff Horseman @JeffHorseman  ·  Jun 6
    From @LesliGoochCA31 - "Pete Aguilar has arrogantly claimed victory with ballots still left to be counted." 1/2
    Jeff Horseman @JeffHorseman  ·  Jun 6
    "I am not letting the Democrats get this REPUBLICAN SEAT." 2/2
    Umm...then support Chabbott.  Is he chopped liver?

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 12:30:51 PM PDT

    •  If there's a Democrat who could lose... (0+ / 0-)

      ...a heavily-Democratic district to someone like Leslie Gooch, it's Pete Aguilar (he's perceived as corrupt by many of the left). However, Gooch and her staffers are doing everything possible to throw the election to Aguilar.

      •  Aguilar is definitely not a bad candidate (10+ / 0-)

        The only references to Aguilar being corrupt that I could find were a few left-wing bloggers whining about the fact that he talks to bankers or something. And not sensible left-wing bloggers. The kind of left-wing bloggers who complain about literally everything. That does not constitute "many of the left". Moreover, Aguilar was elected mayor of Redlands, which is one of the more conservative cities in the district (it voted for McCain and Romney). He might not be really awesome, but not everyone can be really awesome. And mediocrity is enough for a Democrat to win in CA-31, which, by the way, does not have a progressive activist base.

        •  The district seems to be full of ConservaDems (0+ / 0-)

          Joe Baca got several percent of the vote in the primary, and that was despite Baca making sexist remarks about Gloria Negrete McLeod.

        •  I wouldn't call him corrupt (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, gabjoh

          just bidness friendly in the IE ole boys network.  He's got a bunch of highly conservative max donors, the sort of folks who only otherwise give to GOPpers, which raises a few eyebrows.

          Between Pete and Baca or Pete and Miller or Pete and random GOPper, it's no contest.  I was actually hoping Eloise would run in 35, to narrow the Dem field, although I'd take her over Pete in a head-to-head.  That would have had the added benefit of letting Norma get some time in grade.  

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 03:24:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Corrupt how? (4+ / 0-)

        Did Howie Klein call him that?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 02:04:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Who are these "many on the left" (0+ / 0-)

        that perceive Aguilar as corrupt?

        24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

        by kurykh on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 02:05:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Howie Klein (5+ / 0-)

          so no one worth taking seriously.

          •  Yes, he is often irrational about these things. (5+ / 0-)

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 05:45:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              he accused Eric Swalwell of running a dirty campaign against Ellen Corbett. If anything it was Corbett who was running the dirty campaign which hopefully will blow up in her face.

              Plus he seems to have some personal beef with Aguilar because Klein's Twitter feed constantly featured a picture of Aguilar flipping the bird at the camera.

              The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

              by ehstronghold on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 07:12:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  There was also his IL-02 Special analysis (0+ / 0-)

                which was Mark Halperin-level shitty.

                •  Why, was Robin Kelly not good enough? (0+ / 0-)

                  She ran the most liberal of the three main contenders.

                  “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                  by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:36:34 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well, for starters (4+ / 0-)

                    he claimed Steve Israel and the DCCC were secretly backing Halvorson, when a look at Halvorson's fundraising totals for the race disprove that easily (she raised something like $40,000 or so, most of it from in-state donors; if the DCCC was backing her I'd expect her to raise more money, most of it from out-of-state)

                    He also backed Hutchinson as the "true progressive" candidate, even though Hutchinson was the "establishment" pick in that race initially, and attacked Kelly for accepting the endorsements of State Senators  Napoleon Harris and Donnie Trotter (Harris is opposed to gay marriage, and Trotter was the establishment pick before he was caught trying to bring a gun onto a plane). Hutchinson, of course, had campaigned for her State Senate seat with the endorsement of the ISRA, and had accepted the endorsement of anti-gay pastors as well.

                    tl;dr: Howie Klein suffers from (Steve) Israel Derangement syndrome and has no idea WTF he's talking about when it comes to Congressional campaigns

                    •  Hutchinson was the one... (0+ / 0-)

                      ...who backpedaled from her pro-NRA/ISRA stance as a member of the Illinois General Assembly as a congressional candidate (I called her out for that more than once). Kelly isn't a pure progressive (she voted against the Amash Amendement to reign in NSA spying, for example), but she's closer to it than Hutchinson was.

  •  VA State Senate. Dem Senator to resign (14+ / 0-)
    RICHMOND — Republicans appear to have outsmarted Gov. Terry McAuliffe in a budget-and-Medicaid standoff by persuading a conservative Democratic senator to resign his seat, at least temporarily giving the GOP control of that chamber and possibly dooming the governor’s top legislative priority.

    Sen. Phillip P. Puckett (D-Russell) will announce his resignation Monday, effective immediately, paving the way for a deal he negotiated that includes awarding his daughter a state judgeship and himself a job as deputy director of the state tobacco commission, three people familiar with the arrangement said Sunday.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
  •  For 2015 races, T-Mac needs to take advantage (5+ / 0-)

    of VA laws allowing the governor to form a leadership PAC and flood money to recruit and win races in SD-10 (the most), SD-7, and some in SD-17 and 20.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 04:43:38 PM PDT

  •  This is outrageous (12+ / 0-)

    Unbelievable. Unbelievable. http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 9 states across America. Managed races in VA and DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 05:21:39 PM PDT

  •  McAuliffe has limited options atm (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, lordpet8

    The GOP has outmaneuvered him clearly it looks like they want to force him to do this executively to rally the base and pin the old 'dictator' tag on him. The thing is establishing it by EO may not even stand a legal test so a prolonged Gov't shutdown may be the only way to get either to fold and hammer out a compromise.  

  •  Warner/McAuliffe need to put their $$ to good use (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8

    They are both wealthy with a ton of money that can be poured into PACs for ads and GOTV in Senate races next year. There are a lot of Republicans in Obama districts only there because of low turnout and poor Dem opponents. Dems need to recruit good candidates and have Warner campaign aggressively for against these Repubs next year if they don't vote for Medicaid expansion. Money and threats will move people.

  •  On ideological labels (4+ / 0-)

    Upthread there was, let's say, a bit of a disagreement over ideological labeling.

    No, you aren't moderate. You're regressive. You're oppressive. That isn't moderate, but hurtful and disgusting.
    One of the stupidest things to do on a thread like this is disagree over how someone labels themselves ideologically.  I know James Allen describes himself as a conservative, and uses it in a more traditional sense than the cut taxes, ban abortion conservatism we see considered "conservatism" in America.  How can Michael Bloomberg and Joe Manchin both be moderates when they agree on so little?  I identify as a social libertarian, but others might call my positions socially liberal.  What's a true progressive?  Is Obama one?  A hundred years ago, the progressives were the ones trying to control human behavior.  Maybe Rick Santorum is the social progressive.  

    Or maybe there are many different labels for the same beliefs because of how complicated politics is.  And maybe, because everyone here is in the top 0.1% most educated people in America when it comes to politics, we shouldn't criticize how others choose to label themselves.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 06:05:39 PM PDT

    •  And for that matter, insulting someone (0+ / 0-)

      for being socially conservative both compromises the inclusivity of our environment towards fellow Democrats and is absurdly hypocritical considering 9 out of 10 of us would vote for a social conservative under certain circumstances, such as the upcoming Arkansas Senate election.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 06:08:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't get the comparison (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, benamery21

        Voting for a social conservative in cases like GA-Sen or AR-Sen is nothing more than being practical.  I'm a social and economic liberal.  But above all I vote for the lesser of two evils.  If I can get an all-around progressive elected I vote that way.  But if I'm stuck between voting for someone who votes the way I want half the time and some tea bagger like Tom Cotton I take the guy who agrees with me half the time.  There's nothing hypocritical about it.

        •  I don't think it's hypocritical (5+ / 0-)

          to support the primary candidate you like best in a case like ME-2.  People have legitimate reasons to support Troy Jackson or Emily Cain.  I haven't researched the issue positions of each candidate so I don't have much of an opinion myself.

          I think it's hypocritical to attack a social conservative personally, on this thread, for their beliefs (you didn't do this, just to clarify) while saying Mark Pryor 2014.  

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 06:18:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I absolutely agree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HumeanSkeptic

            It's just unnecessary vitriol, especially here on DKE. Wanna call someone "oppressive", "hurtful", "disgusting", etc.. take it to the main page. They love that kind of red meat.

            Lord knows I don't agree with social conservatives, but they are a necessary part of the party if we want to compete in southern states. And we definitely do want to compete in southern states - AR-02, FL-02, etc are top pickup opportunities for us if we want to win the House this decade. I'd rather have a working majority on economic issues than no working majority at all.

          •  I disagree (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ChadmanFL, wwmiv

            I don't really see those as in any way related per se. For example, if you don't believe in same-sex marriage, I think you're a bigot and can go fuck yourself. Personally speaking. However, I still donate to a number of anti-gay marriage politicians, if I think they are important to holding a democratic position, and they are the best possible candidate for their office. I also understand those who don't.

            So I feel like I can do the following:

            I'll give and support you Mark Pryor in 2014, but go fuck yourself for your socially conservative views.

            And this is not hypocritical or wrong. I feel much the same way about a number of pro-life democrats.

            Another way to think about it is that I recognize that there are limits as to how liberal a politician can be that is location specific. But I don't believe how liberal a -person- is has anything to do with location per se, nor that I have some ineffable obligation to respect those views as long as they wear the big tent hat. I don't like this being used against argumentation because the big tent argument is not that we need to tolerate every viewpoint any person might have, but rather that we need to accept compromise in our selection of politicians.

            Which is to say if you are wrong in the south, you are wrong. If you are wrong in the North East, you are wrong. And I see no reason not to call people's views bigoted, hateful or wrong regardless of which side of the aisle they are on. I only ask that they give me the same courtesy and let me know when I am being bigoted, hateful or wrong.

            •  Ok. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HumeanSkeptic

              Well I'll tell you right now you're being hateful.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 11:45:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Of whom and how? (0+ / 0-)

                If bigots, of course, and I am very happy to be so.

                •  Although to clarify (0+ / 0-)

                  I don't 'hate' bigots per se, I hate bigotry. I prefer to use forceful wording to make the point that I find such views and viewpoints unacceptable. I don't mean that bigots are a special class of people per se, as we all have our internalized prejudices. Rather, I find it important to make clear that not addressing those, tolerating them, and encouraging them is wrong, full stop.

                  To that end, when I say that I want to be told when I am being bigoted, hateful, or wrong, I really do mean it, but I mean it in the sense that I'd like to be corrected of my mistakes. Have my feet held to the fire, if you will. If my tactics are incorrect or my beliefs wrong, I like to have that made known to me. That said, if a certain amount of harshness is seen as wrong, I am likely to disagree. I think that if one does act in a harmful and bigoted way, one ought to have one's feelings hurt, at least a bit. Because gay children and adults are killing themselves because of this hate, and if being made even a little less likely to express views leading to depression and suicide in gay kids or adults is a consequence of these hurt feelings, I am all for hurting them. It doesn't mean that there aren't other methods, and that I wish ill on anyone for the sake of causing ill. I don't believe in that sort of retributive justice.

                  So when I ask, I am serious, but I don't take "being mean" as enough to stop. I want dialogue, but more than anything I want an end to discrimination and bigotry.

      •  Wait wait (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, ChadmanFL

        I wasn't insulting anyone here for being socially conservative...

        I was insulting a specific candidate for being socially conservative. I realize now that because I used the language "you're" it came across as an attack on a fellow user, rather than a reference to my previous paragraph. I apologize. It was not my intention to attack another user at all, especially a user that I generally like and whose contributions are mostly good.

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 06:30:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  A lot of this is tonal (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC, benamery21, sacman701, gabjoh

      I moved from the right to the left in the US largely because I distrust two things:

      1. Fanaticism and the belief that politics is a good v. evil cosmic struggle
      2. Ideological blinkers

      As someone who spent a lot of their formative time in Europe, I found the American Republican party to be frankly too Marxist for my taste. And by Marxist I don't mean in the Social Democratic, favor regulation way, but in the nutty pseudo-religious cult, Greek KKE/Trotskyiest manner. Central to the Republican world system are certain "known facts" such as that tax cuts raise revenue, or that privatization is always more efficient. When events don't work out as predicted, rather than reexamining their views based on new information they interpret that information in light of doctrine. If tax cuts failed to raise revenue and increased the deficit, its not because they don't work, but because they weren't tried hard enough.

      My issue with the left on social issues is not the positions themselves; I favor same-sex marriage and government funding of healthcare, including abortion, for low-income individuals. Where I have an issue is in the tendency of some on the left to adopt a tone reminiscent of evangelicals or islamic fundamentalists in which socially we have reached the end of history, and they are on the side of angels in the great cosmic struggle against darkness. To have any ambiguity about abortion is to be anti-women, despite women being more pro-life than men. To disagree with tacitics on gay rights, or to come down differently on the balance between free speech and hate speech, or to even believe that such arguments have more than one clear cut side is to be homophobic, regardless of if your gay. The democratic position is not that gay marriage is a goal of policy, but that the most important issue facing America is for stockbrokers and management consultants to be able to marry who they want, and to avoid paying taxes on it. The litigant in Windsor was sympathetic in that she was unable to marry her partner, not in of herself or her own situation which was quite simply that she did not want to pay taxes on a multi-million dollar estate.

      I think things like that get too easily lost and it hurts the Democratic party far more than the issues themselves do. I do not think Abortion or Gay Marriage per se are that damaging anymore in places like Kentucky so much as the patronizing and elites attitude with which they are adopted. When women's healthcare is spoken of in terms of health for the poor it can be effective even there. However, I think that many understandably found the Sandra Fluke v. Rush Limbaugh fight as a scuffle between two deeply unsympathetic individuals, a loudmouthed jackass and a women who could afford to put in more than $50K into her own vanity campaign for legislature after a $150K law school degree that she is not using, yet refused to chip in to pay for healthcare. I think the question of whether she should have been covered was ambiguous not because contraception coverage is ambiguous, but because I think its arguable that the wealthy should pay a share of their own healthcare costs. Does that make me a reactionary?

  •  Why are Dems always caught flat flooted by Rs (5+ / 0-)

    These party switches/takeovers seem to only happen to Dems. NY State Senate, Washington State Senate, almost happened with Northam in 2009 and now this deal today. Dems never see it coming I can't of where Republicans made deals with Dems and bailed on their party on multiple occasions in multiple states over the years. Renegade Dems seem to be a chronic problem all over the country maybe it's our over reliance on blue dogs or lack of party discipline but this needs be reigned in.

    •  The Senate's version of the PPACA passed (9+ / 0-)

      because Arlen Specter switched.

    •  Overreliance? (3+ / 0-)

      The blue dog coalition is almost dead. If anything, we need to be relying on them more. We're not going to take the House without more blue dogs.

      •  Absolutely (0+ / 0-)

        The problem is that a number of districts, which can elect Blue Dogs (even the most conservative, Bright-Minnick type), is much less now, then even 6-8 years ago. I can't imagine AL-02, for example, electing ANY Democrat now. And it DID electrd Bright in 2008.. Elections became much more polarized and predictable in most areas

      •  Well ya, but where (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Where are we going to get any elected?  Most of the true Blue Dogs, not those from CA or other places who belong to but don't vote like Blue Dogs, are from the southeast.  And those are an endangered species.  

        Just look at the 2014 House map and assume as absolute best case scenario - Dems somehow take a slim House majority.  Even in that scenario we don't gain many Blue Dogs.   Almost none of our top-20 pickup opportunities are likely to be Blue Dogs.  Maybe AR-02, FL-02, WV-02 and a very small number of others would be Blue Dogs, but most would not. Most of our top pickup opportunities are in the rust belt and northeast.

        •  I could name several (0+ / 0-)

          Like you say, AR-02, FL-02, WV-02... but also NE-02, KY-06, IN-02, AR-04, KS-03 and KS-02, NM-02, ND-AL, SD-AL, and MT-AL. If we had these districts, we'd come fairly close to a majority even without the rust belt seats (which I agree are great targets themselves).

          I've a hunch that several other seats could become competitive under a Clinton coalition - seats like MS-01, even. We're not going to get many blue dogs elected while the Scary Black Dude is the head of the party. But the wife of a popular southern governor and ex-president? Maybe.

          It's just a hunch, mind you. It's hard for me to see the south electing guys like Travis Childers in districts like MS-01, and then becoming implacably, irredeemably Republican after 2010. Something has to change to make them competitive, and I suspect that change will happen when Obama is no longer president.

          I guess we'll see.

          •  As usually, you are (0+ / 0-)

            an optimist, while i am a pessimist.. AR-02, FL-02, WV-02 - may be (though i don't see Graham as especially Blue Doggish and candidate in WV-02 as very strong). NE-02 - also "may be" with independent conservative running. All other - very unlikely, and in some of these districts Democratic candidates are not Blue Dogs. With Clinton (not Obama) in 2016 and later - possible, but not that many. Ultrapolarization took it's toll...

  •  The Mayor of Oakland Jean Quan involved in a (9+ / 0-)

    an car accident tonight. Witnesses say she was on her phone and sped through a red light. Previously, she was caught texting in her car. She should resign. She was elected through the terrible IVR system  and really has been a terrible ineffective mayor.

  •  MI-Gov: Schauer hangs out in Detroit (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Le Champignon, gabjoh

    I noticed that from Schauer's social media that he hung out in Detroit most of last week.  I and many others have been saying that he needs to up his profile in Detroit for November, as has the polls.  

    Snyder has been going for Detroit hard, this year.  He's smart enough to know that he won't be getting many votes out of the place, but to show that he cares could very well depress turnout.  Furthermore, to keep from antagonizing the legislature and the governor to protect support from the state, Mayor Duggan essentially struck a backroom deal not to critizien the Emergency Manager, and that seems to have morphed into Duggan not criticizing the governor, which really puts Schauer in a bind, or at least makes his job harder. My hope is that this deal doesn't stop Duggan from ultimately stomping for and endorsing Schauer down the road.

    For as much as Detroit has declined in population and thus electoral importance, it is still the most voter rich city for Democrats in the state, and you still need decent turnout in the city to win.  A huge reason Bernero performed so poorly in 2010 was because voter turnout in Detroit was so incredibly poor.  Schauer kind of starts out in the hole not being from the other side of the state (at least in his adult political life, he was actually born in raised in the metro area) and not having as many readily available connections, here.  He'd be smart to just park himself and the city, really, since he's hit just about everywhere else in the state.

    I don't expect Detroit turnout to be as low as in 2010.  The Democratic machine is ramping up, and even outside of that Snyder pissed off a lot of people in the area with his policies just like everywhere else in the state.  But, it's never foolish to talk up the importance of Detroit for Dems, and I'm glad to see Schauer hitting up the city proper, hard.  One of the very basic things a Democratic candidate needs to do in Detroit is to simply show up and present and alternative, and that's more than half the battle, right there.  This is a town that gave Obama over 95% of its vote in 2012, I believe.  It's not going to be difficult to convince them not to vote for Mitt Romney, Jr. come November, but they also aren't going to turnout in the numbers we want them to if you don't show up.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 09:31:42 PM PDT

  •  Comment on Kentucky (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, gabjoh

    Have not gotten to it this weekend. I hope to add something in the Monday Live Digest. Have been really busy. Hope tomorrow works out.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Jun 08, 2014 at 10:00:20 PM PDT

  •  IA-Senate Poll (0+ / 0-)

    Vox Populi (R) Poll

    Governor
    Branstad 51%
    Hatch 40%

    Senate
    Ernst 49%
    Braley 44%

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