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Anais Arias-Aragon poses for pictures with her certificate after receiving proof of U.S. citizenship during a ceremony in San Francisco, California January 30, 2013. REUTERS
Claims are flying fast and furious that House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary to economics professor David Brat because Cantor is too soft on immigration. But while Brat's viciously anti-immigrant positions may have turned a few hardliners out to vote, immigration reform is actually very popular among the district's voters. A Public Policy Polling poll done for Americans United for Change on primary night found that:
72% of voters in Cantor’s district support the bipartisan immigration reform legislation on the table in Washington right now to only 23% who are opposed. And this is an issue voters want to see action on. 84% think it’s important for the US to fix its immigration system this year, including 57% who say it’s ‘very’ important. Even among Republicans 58% say it’s ‘very’ important, suggesting that some of the backlash against Cantor could be for a lack of action on the issue.
Just nine percent strongly oppose the bipartisan immigration bill, so while it's possible that those nine percent voted for Brat at a high rate, it's hard to make the case that immigration explains Cantor's defeat. Cantor's job approval numbers, on the other hand ...
Cantor has a only a 30% approval rating in his district, with 63% of voters disapproving. The Republican leadership in the House is even more unpopular, with just 26% of voters approving of it to 67% who disapprove. Among GOP voters Cantor’s approval is a 43/49 spread and the House leadership’s is 41/50.
The reasons for that shockingly low job approval rating will doubtless be debated endlessly in the coming weeks. But clearly his alleged softness on immigration is not the leading factor.

Originally posted to Laura Clawson on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 07:57 AM PDT.

Also republished by LatinoKos, Virginia Kos, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think some hard analysis is in order (8+ / 0-)

    and someone needs to dig a little deeper into why Cantor lost. I am thinking that his flip flops on immigration may have led people to not trust him on anything.

    •  GOP tends to state the conclusion and then (8+ / 0-)

      fabricate the reasons.

    •  What, exactly do the polls mean... (9+ / 0-)

      ...by Immigration "Reform"?

      If you ask me if I'm for "reform", I will always say yes! The word implies something good.

      How about we ask instead:

      "Are you in favor of bringing more job-seekers to the United States?"
      That's the poll we need to see.

      The PPP did ask one interesting question:

      There is bipartisan immigration reform legislation being debated in Washington. The bill would secure our borders, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status. If a long list of requirements is met over more than a decade, it provides eligibility for a path to citizenship.

      Would you support or oppose this proposal?
      40% Strongly support
      32% Somewhat support
      14% Somewhat oppose
      9% Strongly oppose
      4% Not sure

      The boldface is mine. I believe that that's the most important and popular part of the whole proposal. Let's not lose sight of it.

      They didn't even bother to poll H1-B visas!

      The Diarist has always done a good job of running the "Labor Kos" sub-group. I humbly suggest that diaries on Immigration (reformed or not) be tagged with the "Labor" tag. Because, at the end of the day, that's what immigration is about...importing labor.

      •  You bolded the wrong part (10+ / 0-)
           There is bipartisan immigration reform legislation being debated in Washington. The bill would secure our borders, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status.  If a long list of requirements is met over more than a decade, it provides eligibility for a path to citizenship.

            Would you support or oppose this proposal?
            40% Strongly support
            32% Somewhat support
            14% Somewhat oppose
            9% Strongly oppose
            4% Not sure

        The fact that a Pathway to Citizenship gets 72% support is far more telling that secure borders.  Secure borders is bullshit.  That's like asking if we support a proposal for more cops or firefighters.  I don't think ANYONE would want less secure borders.    

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:41:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agree Completely (6+ / 0-)

        I have always had very mixed feeling about this topic, as a progressive.

        I can see both sides of the issue, have feelings for children who have been brought here as minors, those fleeing unrest and starvation in other countries, etc., but wonder how the excess/under the table labor pool has had a depressing effect on minority youths/young adults who might have had at least a beginning step upward of a job at a minimum wage and some benefits, holding father and mother families together, etc.,  if there had not been a flood of undocumented workers who were being paid less than a minimum wage/no benefits because the employers could get away with it instead of hiring a US worker.

        •  Bingo (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gagme, glitterscale

          and i think this is one more example of the Tea Party cutting it's own throat and just not seeing that out of pure hate.  As long as illegals can get hired and paid less than a legal worker, wages will continue to be driven down.  And that, after all is said and done, is what our plutocratic class wants to see - wages down at global levels, a permanent class of un and under employed to fill their low paying jobs, a workforce that will not complain because they'll simply be grateful to have a job, and the Middle Class will be no more.

          Truly reforming would cause issues at first, sure.  But in the long run, and maybe not even that long a run, wages would come back UP, not keep on going down, down, down.  And with that rise in wages, a consumer economy would once again be a viable economic model.

          I tend to believe for this reason alone, not much will get done - there's simply too much profit in not doing anything.

          •  Wages will NOT eventually come back up (0+ / 0-)

            The current "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" movement pretends to be about poor farmhands, but it's really about lowering middle class wages by importing millions of new high tech workers. Those immigrants will "earn" citizenship by taking your jobs. There's no need to pay them better over time because this legislation, and the language in the Trans Pacific Partnership, will allow for a constant resupply of desperate new immigrants from poor, overpopulated countries.

            See my other comment below. http://www.dailykos.com/...

      •  Everyone seeking to immigrate is a 'job-seaker' (0+ / 0-)

        So are you suggesting we close the borders to everyone?

        "That being said, I do agree I am going to hell. But for other reasons. Mostly boring tax stuff ' Amy Pohler

        by Annie B on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 09:05:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  'job-SEEKER' (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          glitterscale

          I need more coffee.

          "That being said, I do agree I am going to hell. But for other reasons. Mostly boring tax stuff ' Amy Pohler

          by Annie B on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 09:23:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Helpless, edg, NewtC

          We should close the borders to nearly everyone. No new Americans until our unemployment rate is below (let's say) 5%.

          The people who are already here should get a fast track to full citizenship, aka "amnesty". By "fast", I mean 1-2 years, not 10 years. They should pay some back taxes, say they're sorry for sneaking in, and pass a citizenship test.

          Any new immigrants should be admitted based on what's good for the country, not what's good for IBM. If IBM needs computer programmers, they should hire American kids.

          Any new immigrants should be granted full citizenship. No green cards, H1-Bs, or indentured servants.

          •  Right, it is not just the unskilled labor pool (8+ / 0-)

            Have a relative with a doctorate in computer engineering.

            IBM would only hire for 2 years as a "contract" worker, not with full benefits as a regular employee.

            How many college grads are working as barristas, versus getting a job in their field to pay off school loans?

            Have another relative who lost her job as a financial person (with 30 years skilled experience and technical/professional degree) with a major Midwestern national corporation recently.  In the last 5 years she worked there, the labor force in that Midwestern company went Asian/Southeast Asian (not US born of that ethnicity).

            They were the only employees left after the last rounds of layoffs.  And salaries were depressed/stagnant for those last 5 years; benefits cut.  Company was never losing money during that time frame and was in a recession proof field.

            •  That's the problem. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NewtC, auapplemac, gagme

              We liberals let our compassion overwhelm our common sense. If the US middle class is eviscerated and cannot care for itself, how can we possibly care for the world's downtrodden? Anyone who has ever been a caretaker for another person, whether a child or an elder, knows that the first rule is take care of yourself first. Otherwise, you will NOT be able to care for others.

              Obi Ben Ghazi to House Republicans: "Use the Farce."

              by edg on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 12:06:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  People also come up with solutions that make the (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                auapplemac, gagme

                problem worse.

                Allowing illegal aliens to have an advantage over other immigrants willing to abide by the rules is BAD public policy. The 1986 amnesty for illegal aliens inspired millions more to come here illegally.

                Now we're supposed to accept a "special" path to citizenship simply because "they're already here."

                A child who has to pick through garbage to eat in Mexico City should NOT be a lower priority to us than someone who breaks into the US, has a baby and is now living in Section 8 housing.

          •  1%er's dream (6+ / 0-)

            Yes, I've always thought the current system is a 1%er's dream.  Millions of serfs who have no labor rights, can't unionize, can't vote, that you can pay virtually whatever you want -- and if sales are down, you don't even have to do that.

            And re: H1-Bs -- the computer company whose equipment I used to program got a bunch of Mexicans H1-Bs, trained them, then hired them out to companies like the one I worked for.  I wonder why they did that rather than hire American? /snark  

            Even Democrats can be asses. Look at Rahm Emanuel.

            by Helpless on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 10:15:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The H-1B scam. (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NewtC, gagme, Helpless, lina

              The H-1B scam has been one of the worst things ever perpetrated upon the American people. Millions of citizens with technical degrees and skills have been displaced because of it. And the greedy corporate bastards want even more H-1B visas made available. When will we learn?

              Obi Ben Ghazi to House Republicans: "Use the Farce."

              by edg on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 12:08:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Yesterday someone here posted a link to Cantor's (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Back In Blue, navane50mg, dewtx, TKO333

      FB page.   Here it is again.

      https://www.facebook.com/...

      Notice how many comments there are about rejecting bills that helped veterans.  Virginia has a huge military population.

       

      I remembered you enthusiastically supported the government shutdown that placed veteran's disability and pension payments at risk. I remembered to vote against you today, thanks for the reminder though.
      •  So that Vet voted for Brat who would have done (0+ / 0-)

        the same or even worse.

        It’s the Supreme Court, stupid! Followed by: It's always the Supreme Court! Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive.

        by auapplemac on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 01:38:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hard analysis is in order (0+ / 0-)

      I read that Democrats were more likely to vote in Republican areas.  Does this reinforce the suggestion Democrats mucked up the Republican primary?

      I don't buy the "immigration reform" argument.

      Nothing would be sweeter than to flip this district now that Republicans are forced to put up an extremist.  Do we have a credible candidate?

      Even Democrats can be asses. Look at Rahm Emanuel.

      by Helpless on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 10:21:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There are not enough Democrats ... (0+ / 0-)

        in that district to elect a Democrat even if all of them voted.

        Obi Ben Ghazi to House Republicans: "Use the Farce."

        by edg on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 12:10:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Further analysis has proven that rumor wrong. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lina

        Cantor won in the more D areAS closer to DC. Brat  hammered him in the heavier R areas in the southern part of the district.

        It’s the Supreme Court, stupid! Followed by: It's always the Supreme Court! Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive.

        by auapplemac on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 01:43:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  An issue of character? (0+ / 0-)

      Cantor's flip flops may have contributed, along with his energy somewhere in the opposite direction of compassion. Visually, a tight-lipped politician. People pick up on stuff like that.

  •  This kills immigration reform for a generation. (5+ / 0-)

    I can't imagine that a Republican would now join a "Gang of 8" or otherwise promote comprehensive immigration reform. Given that it is impossible to pass something as complex as immigration with just the support of one party (in this Congress or another), immigration reform may well be dead for years if not decades.

    •  annexation by mexico might help things along (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, bananapouch1, daeros
    •  make immigration reform the issue of 2014 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Thumb, daeros

      remember the immigration demonstrations of 2007?  we can do that again

      •  Won't help (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        daeros, auapplemac

        The people who really care about immigration reform already vote Democratic. And for most people, it's not big enough an issue. Just like gun control -- a small minority really, really cares about preventing it at all costs, while for the large majority that wants gun controls the issue just isn't that important. So, the tiny minority wins.

        •  Small minority in an off year election (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aaraujo

          can make a BIG difference.  The same people who would be most impacted by this are also the ones less likely to turn out to vote.  So if this means getting them more likely to vote then it could make big differences in districts with a large Hispanic population like Valadao and Denham in CA or Farenthold and Sessions in TX, or Coffman in CO.  

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:43:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Turnout (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          daeros, TRPChicago

          Yes, but so few turn out to vote in midterm elections, especially Democrats, that a galvanizing issue like this one that so strongly favors Democrats could turn the whole election.

          Flipping only 17 Republican seats (under 4% of 435 in the election) gives Democrats the majority.

          "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

          by DocGonzo on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 09:00:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Won't help? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bananapouch1

          In the same way civil rights, abortion, and gay marriage as issues "didn't help" the Democrats.

          I say if they want a fight over immigration...

          ... please proceed Governor.

          The polls don't tell us how a candidate is doing, the polls tell us how the media is doing.

          by Thumb on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 09:20:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Won't help. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            auapplemac

            Civil rights, abortion rights, and gay marriage rights are rights for citizens. Support Illegal Immigration just does not have the same appeal.

            Obi Ben Ghazi to House Republicans: "Use the Farce."

            by edg on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 12:12:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, but... (0+ / 0-)

              The immigrant population, and their immediate descendants who are citizens, are only adding to the marginalization of the party of old white people. Fighting immigration reform is the same as Republicans' other efforts to push against the tide, and should end similarly.

              The polls don't tell us how a candidate is doing, the polls tell us how the media is doing.

              by Thumb on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 01:05:14 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  2006 was different (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        auapplemac

        Back then, the House had passed a hardline enforcement-only bill. Right now, we just have no chance for a reform bill passing. Even if mass demonstrations occurred, I don't think the House GOP would budge.

    •  That means chances of a Republican winning (8+ / 0-)

      the presidency will be dead "for years if not decades."  Can you imagine the Republican primary before 2016? They'll try to outdo one another hating immigrants. Jeb Bush is gone as a candidate. Forget him. And Rubio? Ha. The tea party will be putting a serape and a sombrero on him in ads.

      Latinos will chafe at all this, and I envision more and more Latino activists beating the doors down on this. As bad as Cantor and Boehner were with their less than lukewarm support of immigration, that's all the GOP had.

      "The soil under the grass is dreaming of a young forest, and under the pavement the soil is dreaming of grass."--Wendell Berry

      by Wildthumb on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:23:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly this (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Wildthumb

        They'll have as much luck doubling down on immigration as they've had on civil rights, abortion, women's rights, and marriage equality, wrapped in a soft tortilla of global warming.

        Bring it on!

        The polls don't tell us how a candidate is doing, the polls tell us how the media is doing.

        by Thumb on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 09:23:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Republicans Could Do It (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      auapplemac

      If Republicans controlled the House, Senate and presidency in 2017 (which is certainly possible) they could pass something as their draconian version of immigration reform in the first 10 days.

      Even with the barest majorities. That is in fact when they are most radical.

      "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

      by DocGonzo on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:59:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I really can't buy into this... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aaraujo, commonmass, Incredulousinusa

    ...mainly because of the jubilation on the Right over his defeat.  Brat was a one-issue candidate who was outspent 10 to 1.  Those people don't win unless that issue has total salience.

    •  or else it is a very low turnout where the (4+ / 0-)

      value of each vote is magnified.  I understand this was not the case in this case

    •  Agree with you completely (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NewtC, gagme, Punditus Maximus

      Something is seriously strange with attitudes and polling on "Immigration Reform". The word amnesty is left out whenever possible, which is really at the heart of it. The Chamber of Commerce wants Mexicans for cheap labor, to put it bluntly and politically incorrect. Immigrants worried they will be deported make willing employees. The Chamber of Commerce is Republican to their core, yet the Democrats are the ones associated most with "Immigration Reform". The powers that be in both parties are finessing a way to keep cheap labor flowing and taxpayers financing it. Americans, including liberals, wouldn't know a bad thing if it hit them in the head. Reagan signed amnesty to 3 million. George W Bush wanted amnesty for immigrants (Wikipedia). That should tell you something is rotten in Denmark and at the American border with Mexico. E-verify and laws to prevent illegal hiring have never been enforced and will never be enforced. Who's going to do it? Only chumps would want millions of laborers from other countries taking jobs while our taxes provide care and comfort for said laborers. Mob mentality at work.

  •  A vote is a funny thing. (5+ / 0-)

    Unless writing somebody in, we get to vote for the names on the ballot.

    Sometimes you dislike the incumbent so much that you don't care who gets elected instead.  In the case of the House, you are talking one person out of 435 and another election in just 2 years.  More than any other branch of government, it's OK to vote for a serious turd if it means unseating a serious turd who has done you no favors.

    Enough of that, and you have 2010, but, most of the time, you just get rid of a few turds.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:20:56 AM PDT

  •  Then Again - Congress' Overall Approval - (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Roadbed Guy, commonmass

    Was at 9% - - but is back up to 13%.

    So does that mean that Cantor was 3X more popular than Congress in general? Similarly, even though Congressional approval rates have been sub-basement for decades, people usually think their own Congress critter is O.K. and keep reelecting him/her for 100 years.

    Sumptin's gotta be pretty wrong with Cantor to screw so badly.

    •  That's long been the puzzle (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, johnnygunn, TKO333, auapplemac

      i.e., how do 9 out of 10 (probably more) of incumbents keep getting re-elected in the face of exactly the opposite ratio of job approval (e.g., 9 out of 10 voters disapprove)?

    •  Generic always polls worse (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, johnnygunn, auapplemac

      Ask 100 people what their opinion of congress is and you're likely to get a general consensus that they fucking blow chunks.  Ask them what they think of THEIR congressperson and it's likely they're poll significantly higher.  

      I don't know why Cantor lost.  Turnout was higher than normal.  Was that Dems or Tea baggers?  Brat did better in red parts which would indicate that he got the tea baggers, but there was also indications that Dems crossed over.  In the end it's probably a combination of several factors and it's highly unlikely that one single issue or event caused Cantor to get dumped.  The guy was a fucking dick.  Maybe they just hated his smarmy ass.  For all we know some lingering anger of the shutdown may have caused traditionally GOP voters in the defense industry to dump Cantor as a warning to other GOP leaders to cut the shit.  Who the fuck knows.  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:49:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Brat's campaign was mostly about (10+ / 0-)

    corruption and crony capitalism:

    Brat told Internet radio host Flint Engelman that the “number one plank” in his campaign is “free markets.” Brat went on to explain, “Eric Cantor and the Republican leadership do not know what a free market is at all, and the clearest evidence of that is the financial crisis … When I say free markets, I mean no favoritism to K Street lobbyists.” Banks like Goldman Sachs were not fined for their role in the financial crisis — rather, they were rewarded with bailouts, Brat has said.

    Brat, who has identified with maverick GOP lawmakers like Representative Justin Amash of Michigan, spent much of the campaign slamming both parties for being in the pocket of “Wall Street crooks” and D.C. insiders. The folks who caused the financial crisis, Brat says, “went onto Obama’s rolodex, the Republican leadership, Eric’s rolodex.”

    During several campaign appearances, Brat says what upset him the most about Cantor was his role in gutting the last attempt at congressional ethics reform. “If you want to find out the smoking gun in this campaign,” Brat told Engelman, “just go Google and type the STOCK Act and CNN and Eric Cantor.” (On Twitter, Brat has praised the conservative author Peter Schweizer, whose work on congressional corruption forced lawmakers into action on the STOCK Act.)

    Immigration may have played some part, but it's not the main story.

    "Turns out I'm really good at killing people." - President Obama

    by jrooth on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:22:43 AM PDT

  •  So the rule stands: (8+ / 0-)

    The instant 'expert' analysis is dead wrong, again.

  •  It's turnout plain and simple. (5+ / 0-)

    Crossover votes and immigration explain part, but neither alone can explain a double digit loss.  Probably it is multiple factors.  However if the GOP wants to believe it is immigration, fine with me.

    Or it could just be that Cantor irritates people.

    I'll always be...King of Bain...I'll always be...King of Bain

    by AZphilosopher on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:28:00 AM PDT

  •  There are many immigrants in VA. (5+ / 0-)

    I used to work on educational materials in VA, and we were asked to provide multiple non-English-language versions -- and it wasn't enough to cover all the languages spoken there.

    One of my contacts in the Education Department in Richmond said that if we were to publish all the languages used in VA, we would have well over 100.

    Do many of these immigrants live in Cantor's former district (ooh, I like saying that)?

    Maybe they will come out and vote against this anti-immigration guy who won last night, and the Dem can take it after all.

    "The difference between the right word and the almost-right word is like the difference between lightning and the lightning bug." -- Mark Twain

    by Brooke In Seattle on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:28:17 AM PDT

  •  Question about this guy Brat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass, auapplemac

    I thought I read he was an economics professor at Randolph Macon but then reading a CV, I note that he has an undergrad from a strict Christian college and a M.Th. from Princeton.
    Did I read this right?  He is teaching economics on the college level with a degree in Theology and no PhD in any field?  I just ask because the average wait for a fresh PhD to catch onto a tenure track position at any level institution is generally 3-5 years currently, I think.  That is for folks with PhDs in their areas of expertise and also graduation from a fairly high powered program (I have a daughter and son in law who are currently involved in this academic paper chase and so am monitoring things rather closely since things have changed since my grad school days.

    I am just wondering if this guy is better connected than we Kossacks realize?

  •  Brat Is A Anti Wall Street Man (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    This is hilarious.  Even tea baggers love wall street.  I mean why else do they side with the establishment when it comes to giving banksters everything they ask for.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:29:46 AM PDT

  •  If immigration polls like that in Cantor's (4+ / 0-)

    district, then he would've been better served to run on reform, which he hinted at early on this term, rather than scamper away from it and try to out-Brat Brat when the loud tea party crowd turned on him. Probably more than a few moderate R's stayed home yesterday because Cantor's ugly anti-immigration mailers, a desperate last-minute attempt to make him look tough on the border, didn't really distinguish him from Brat. Had he run as an immigration moderate, he might not have won, but it couldn't have been worse. And he just might've turned out more of those 72 percent of district voters who favor reform. We'll see if other candidates run away from reform now, when many should run to it (see healthcare reform).

    Arizona meet-up, July 27 in Phoenix. Meet Navajo! Send me Kosmail.

    by Mother Mags on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:32:39 AM PDT

  •  It's laughable how right wingers seem to think ... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    noreaster88, commonmass, Aythem

    It's laughable how right wingers seem to think a primary in a deeply red Virginia district where a super conservative type railed against immigration reform and defeated an incumbent as some sort of national referendum on immigration reform. It simply proves once again that republicans are 100% concerned only with doing or saying what will keep them in office...they never care about the people or even really about issue...they bend and sway in whichever direction brings big donations and votes. Not that this affliction doesn't affect almost all politicians in some ways...but the way republicans do it is simply grotesque.

  •  cantor lacked leadership and the ability to govern (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass
  •  Only matters GOP pols THINK it was immigration (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    Doesn't matter why Cantor really lost (immigration, out of touch with district, Dem crossover votes). It only matters that GOP politicians THINK it was immigration that did him in. They will not touch immigration with a 100-foot pole now or for the foreseeable future. I'm sorry, but other interpretations are really just wishful thinking. Immigration reform is dead for a long, long time.

  •  So in other words... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    Cantor can do the right thing, if he wants, and make efforts to get the immigration bill to the floor in the House. He's already lost his seat. I'm sure this move may make him lose some post-Congressional job opportunities, from hard-lined conservatives who hate immigrants, but I'd bet he wouldn't lose all of 'em.

    So hey, Cantor, if you're reading this (and clearly you've got the time), work on bringing the bill up to a vote. You'll get to screw over the party that abandoned you, and you'll get to do the right thing, for a refreshing change of pace.

    You know you're winning a fight against a Republican when they stop mocking your position and start whining about your tone.

    by slappymagoo on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:46:33 AM PDT

  •  It's curious how few pundits even consider... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jrooth, commonmass, Brooke In Seattle

    the possibility that voters were voting against an incumbent who has visibly done everything possible to do...nothing.

    They stand for nothing except being anti-Obama, anti-Democrat, and anti-99%.

    The Teabag philosophy and immigration reform may have very little to do with this vote compared with, "Throw the bums out."

    But hey, if Republicans want to conclude that moving even farther to the right is the way to go....

    Please proceed.

  •  Can the Democrat beat him? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    It seems the possibility is at least there, given that this guy's a complete unknown who will fall on his face when discussing any issues beyond immigration and Wall Street. He can't even handle a simple minimum wage question!
    Time for the Democrats to get energized in this district.
    It can be done! Look at this guy...he just beat the second ranking member of his party in the US House.
    I think there's much more positive than negative going to come out of this.

  •  Sadly, the GOP has stuff Gerrymandered* (0+ / 0-)

    to the point that even when they fall out of favor overall, their districts full of loyal lemmings will keep them in power in Congress until after the next census. Nice to see Cantor go down, though. He's a real SOB.

    *As part of my crusade to reclaim honor for Elbridge Gerry, Vice-President to James Madison and 9th Governor of my home Commonwealth, Massachusetts, I will take this opportunity to point out that Gerry's name is pronounced with a hard "G".

    SPES MEA IN DEO EST.

    by commonmass on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:49:57 AM PDT

  •  Good side/Bad side for liberals in this. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    The good side of this for liberals: This makes a lie out of "inevitability," and shows that an underfunded, little known candidate, can take down a well financed, well connected incumbent who NOBODY thought was in any danger whatever, with retail politicking and smart use of social media. If the Conservatives can take down Cantor, then there is no reason why liberals can't takeout some Conservadems.

    The bad side of this for liberals: It also makes a lie out of the old saw "You don't have to worry about motivating the Repub. base, they're already as motivated as they can get!" No, apparently not. Turnout was higher this time than it was in 2012, by a pretty good margin, and I think we can say the Republican base was pretty motivated in 2012. The fact is there are still new heights to be reached when it comes to Republican enthusiasm, and it's the extreme conservatives  who are learning how to reach them.

    The bad news for everyone: the congress will become even more dysfunctional than it currently is for the time being.

    The good news for everyone: The polls are no longer sacrosanct. Under the radar wins can happen. The lesser known, underfunded candidate with no chance, can take down a well known, well funded, well connected, "shoe in"and beat him senseless.
    Not a single incumbent, on either side, can feel completely safe after seeing Cantor go down. He had it all going for him, money, position, name recognition, and all the polling. He won big the last time, and everyone expected, right up until election day that this was going to be a cakewalk for him. What did it apparently was that the challenger basically got his GOTV machine cranking and people turned out. This means all sorts of "unwinnable" races may not be so after all, and that applies to the general elections as much as to primaries.

    The machine can be beaten.

  •  Democratic Pickup Opportunity (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    I know VA-07 voters are R+10 partisans. But Republicans there losing the House Majority Leader office has to take a chunk out of that +10 in decreased turnout. And decreased by lost "familiar face" and name recognition compared to the ill-named "Brat".

    Brat's signature issue of hating immigrants loses 3:1 in that poll. And his other Teabagger positions are similarly odious.

    What remains to be seen is whether the low-budget Brat gets a reversal of fortune from the Republican Party fundraising that until now was against him. If it doesn't, he could very well lose.

    One down, 16 to go in flipping Republican seats to a Democratic House majority. Cantor's ship should go down with him, even though his (b)rats threw him overboard first.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 08:57:00 AM PDT

  •  well.. Virginia is a big military state (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jrooth

    and the House did just shut down the Govt.. wasn't Cantor a key player in that?

    How come not a single pundit even considers this as part of his problem? I thought the shut down hurt dems and repubs alike...

    The media wont bring the shut down up cause they are counting on Americans having short memories and really don't want this to be part of the Fall election - therefore they certainly couldn't bring it up in this context, could they?

    Still - this is a plausible factor that contributed to his loss even if the media wont say so.

  •  The GOP will run completely in the wrong direction (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jrooth

    Gee, too bad.

    The tea bag punditry is already screaming how "this proves Murka hates amnesty!"

    Please proceed!

    A 75-25 Latino margin for the Democrats, now and forever,  sounds good to me.

  •  My Take (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jrooth

    The 7th is my district. Here is my take on the defeat FWIW. I knew something was up Saturday when I had to travel through Mechanicsville, VA which is east of Richmond. The energy of Brat's campaign was obvious everywhere. The Tea Party is well represented in Mechanicsville. There are always a few signs election or not advertising tea party meetings and what-not. Now the Tea Party presence was alive and buzzing as if someone had stirred up a hornet's nest. I hadn't heard of David Brat until Saturday. By Sunday he was the topic of discussion in our family. My wife forwarded me an article fro the Huffington Post where Ben "Cooter" Jones discussed his plan to get revenge and unseat Cantor. That sort of annoyed me. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/... I don't usually approve of these type of shenanigans as they often backfire. How is putting a right wing obstructionist with a really right wing nut bag going to make things better? The Democrats have a really uphill climb to win this district and even if they do, I doubt they could ever hold it for more then a few years. Like Cantor or not, there has to be some advantage to having the majority leader and likely future Speaker of The House representing your district. Seemed to me that Cooter had an axe to grind.

    If I had to guess, I would say a large reason for Cantor's defeat is the fact that the ideologically pure who only come out to vote in off-off year elections were incensed about everything. It doesn't matter that the district overwhelmingly supports some type of immigration reform, the people that came out to vote, didn't. There are a lot of right wing Obama haters in this district. I mean frighteningly mad haters. I can't believe some of the bumper stickers I see. I hope they park their cars in as ideologically pure parking lots as their neighborhoods. I think mischief and general hatred of Cantor by the left had a role too. I'm not sure they made up the 5000 vote plus margin but they might have made up half that. In the end, I think this was a Tea Party victory based on hard work and getting your core out to vote. We should work hard to do the same this November.

  •  Does this mean (0+ / 0-)

    That the DCCC is going to put support behind the D in that district? Or, is this another "A D can't win there so lets forget it" places?

    You have your right to your opinion, I will grant you that, but do not denigrate my right to mine!

    by MrQA on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 10:45:03 AM PDT

  •  How about (0+ / 0-)

    he's a dick??

    Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. Frank Zappa

    by Da Rock on Wed Jun 11, 2014 at 11:55:32 AM PDT

  •  Middle class liberals don't mind that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gagme

    the last round of amnesty in 1986 encouraged millions more illegal aliens to come to this country. After all, most undocumenteds work in construction, yard work, food services, home health care and other blue collar jobs. Middle class liberals benefit from cheap labor in those fields. When they want a remodel, they'll use the construction boss who hires illegals because he's cheaper than an ethical contractor who is willing to pay Social Security, Workers Compensation & Unemployment taxes on his employees.

    But the so called "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" bill that's halfway through Congress has some interesting changes to our "high tech" fields. Like NAFTA, most liberals won't know what hit them until the government is allowing companies to fill most professional positions with imported immigrants from overpopulated, undeveloped countries. That $65,000 high tech dream job you hoped to have after college will pay $15,000 instead. Those employees "earning" citizenship by taking US jobs will be happy to work 60-80 hour work weeks without demanding overtime pay. Why not? Where they come from they wouldn't get overtime, and their pay would be even less than if they take your job.

    The meme "They only take jobs Americans don't want" is a liberal lie. Illegal aliens have destroyed blue collar careers ever since the last amnesty bill encouraged millions more people to violate our immigration policies. Obama and Congress are currently trying to destroy H1B limits so that rich corporations can bring millions of employees here to compete with white collar jobs. When that happens, progressives will finally understand what blue collar Americans have faced for decades: The rich will get richer by degrading the employment gains Americans have created for two centuries.

    Can you compete with millions of potential employees who are willing to work 60-70 hour weeks for the price of 40 hours of pay? People who don't care about weekends off or evening time with the family? People whose alternative to a job in America is no job back home?

    Say goodbye to America's workplace standards that unions have struggled to obtain. They'll be tossed out the window as soon as "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" destroys the H1B visa limits that have effectively allowed high tech workers to expect reasonable salaries and workplace safety. If Congress passes the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), it'll be even worse for America's middle class.

    Wake up progressives. Our Plutocrat in Chief is not your friend. And Congress is about to slip through legislation that will finish the destruction of our middle and working classes. Meanwhile, most liberals will continue to repeat that silly meme, "They only take jobs Americans don't want."

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