Four days after Eric Cantor's crushing defeat by David Brat in the Republican primary in Virginia's 7th Congressional District, there is a ton of speculation in the media as to why Cantor went down in flames. But before I go any further, you really need to take a look at this map I received in an email - it really gives an even better idea as to how big this defeat was, from a geographical perspective:
http://www.vpap.org/...
Looking at this map, it is easy to see why Cantor lost so big. Brat swept the Tea Party oasis of New Kent County, however, New Kent has a smaller population, but nonetheless, still an impressive win for an unknown like Brat.
But the explosion you heard in Tuesday night primary results actually came from Hanover County. If you think you know some extreme right wing Tea Party members, you really need to go to Hanover County and spend an afternoon - they are off the charts in terms of how conservative they are, but what makes them so dangerous is the fact that there are a lot of them - and they turn out to vote in big numbers.
Here are the primary results in Hanover County from the Virginia State Board of Elections:
HANOVER COUNTY
Precincts Reporting: 37/37
Precinct Results
Eric I. Cantor 4,150 32.21%
David A. Brat 8,734 67.79%
Total Votes 12,884
Brat took 68% of the vote in Hanover County, buy in many precincts, Brat took more than 70% of the vote:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/...
Brat won this primary by 7,000 votes, and more than half that margin, 4,600, came in Hanover County. And adding New Kent County into the mix, and the the margin bumps up to 5,100, or two thirds of Brat's margin.
In the meantime, Cantor's pollster, veteran Republican survey-taker John McLaughlin, is catching hell the last couple of days from all sides, due to his internal polls showing Cantor cruising to a 34-point victory in his primary. McLaughlin is having a very public meltdown over his poor polling results, which has was paid $75,000.00 by the Cantor campaign:
"Primary turnout was 45,000 2 years ago," McLaughlin wrote. "This time 65,000. This was an almost 50% increase in turnout."
Translation: McLaughlin's estimate of who was a "likely Republican" voter was way, way off the mark. But Cantor's total number of votes still shrank, even as the total number of primary voters went up dramatically in 2014. He secured 37,369 primary votes in 2012 and less than 29,000 this year, with 100 percent of precincts reporting.
Meanwhile, McLaughin wrote that "attacks on immigration and amnesty charges from the right in last week hurt."
Then McLaughlin cited the "Cooter" factor – the fact that former Rep. Ben Jones, a Georgia Democrat who played Cooter in The Dukes of Hazzard, had written an open letter urging Democrats to vote for Brat to help beat Cantor.
"Over the weekend Democrats like Ben Jones and liberal media were driving their Democratic voters on the internet into the open primary," McLaughlin wrote. "Eric got hit from right and left. In our polls two weeks out Eric was stronger with Republicans at 70% of the vote, but running under 50% among non Republicans."
"Untold story," McLaughlin continued, "is who were the new primary voters? They were probably not Republicans."
http://www.nationaljournal.com/...
McLaughlin is claiming that Democratic voters flooded the Republican primary (it is an open primary as you do not register by party in Virginia), in numbers as high as 15,000. Now I know a lot of Dems in this district that voted in the primary - and most, but not all, voted for Brat. The intense dislike for Cantor was a huge factor, but keeping the civil war going between establishment Republicans and Tea Party members was the goal. However, there were some Dems who voted for Cantor, fearing another Tea Party member in Congress would lead to more gridlock.
Turnout expert Michael McDonald of the United State Election Project has come forward, stating that it was not Democratic voters who participated in the primary that defeated Cantor. McDonald sites the following to back up his theory in an article by the Washington Post:
Update: Turnout expert Michael McDonald of the United States Elections Project found similar results analyzing precinct-level data Tuesday night, reporting GOP primary turnout was lowest in the most Democratic-leaning areas of the state.
Weak evidence Ds swung VA-7. Highest D precs have lowest total votes (not all localities in VA-7, but highest D incl) pic.twitter.com/iqxWgwFKkj
— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) June 11, 2014
The evidence of Democratic cross-over voting is weak even after narrowing to the precinct level to 10 locations in Henrico County, which all voted 60 percent or more for Cantor's general election opponent in the 2012 general election. If Democrats banded together to embarrass Cantor in the GOP primary, this is where it would be most evident. Indeed turnout did rise an average of 66 percent above the 2012 primary level in these precincts. But vote shares don't bear the rest of this out -- on average Cantor won 24 percentage points less support in these precincts, smaller than his 35-point drop in support statewide.
McDonald is clearing looking in the wrong precincts for Democratic voters. Clearly in the 10 precincts he sites in Henrico County that are Democratic precincts, there is no sign of Dems turning out to vote against Cantor. But McDonald is looking in the wrong precincts - a lot of these precincts are composed of voters who are less educated, make lower wages and are less frequent voters than their counterparts in the western part of Henrico County. For instance, one of these Democratic precincts has a medium income of only $40,000.00 while one precinct in the western part of the county has a medium income of $144,500.00.
If you want to see where Dems voted in this primary, McDonald should be looking in the precincts in western Henrico County and northern Chesterfield County, as well as some precincts in Hanover County and Goochland County, and in the City of Richmond. Democrats in these precincts have higher income, higher levels of education, etc., and are more active voters, and were the most likely to be the types of Democratic voters to meddle in a Republican primary. The problem is that McDonald probably does not have the tools to figure this out.
I have been told that what we need is for someone with access to the Virginia Democratic Party of Virginia's voter file, to run searches in each county and city, to cross index voters who voted in the Republican primary with those identified on the voter file as Democratic voters. However, apparently it will take weeks for the results of this election to be certified by the State Board of Elections, but it is probably unlikely that someone will do it - but is sure would be fascinating to know the results. And if I were a chair of my local Democratic Party, I'd run a query and find out who these people are for potential fund raising campaigns, volunteers, etc.
Now, do I think Democratic voters are the main reason Cantor lost? No, I do not. Do I think they had a hand in it? Absolutely. But regardless, Cantor is toast, and that does give me some satisfaction. He became arrogant, obsessed with power and his own future, and for governing purposes, these types of hacks do us all a disservice.