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Mike Michaud speaking at campaign kick-off rally.
Goal Thermometer
Maine voters are looking at the three-way 2014 governor race strategically, according to pollsters for the University of New Hampshire Survey Center in a poll commissioned by the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram. By "strategically," they mean who has a better chance of beating incumbent tea party Gov. Paul LePage.

Right now, Democrat Rep. Mike Michaud has a four-point edge, within the margin of error. The big number, though, is LePage's. Big in the sense of how small it is—a governor not breaking 40 percent in a poll.

The Democrat presently has a four-point margin over LePage, leading the governor 40 percent to 36 percent in a landline and cellphone survey of 527 likely voters between June 12 and 18. Cutler lags in third place, with 15 percent of respondents saying they’d vote for him if the election were held today. Another 7 percent said they were undecided. Michaud’s lead is within the 4.3 percent margin of error.
LePage isn't breaking 40 percent in the polls at all, according to HuffPost's poll aggregator. The danger here is Eliot Cutler, the independent, who acted the spoiler in 2010. There's a sense that Mainers recall the disastrous effects of that vote-splitting: they got LePage as their governor.
Michaud is also drawing support from respondents who voted for Cutler during the independent’s second-place finish in 2010. The latter finding suggests that Democrats who bailed on Libby Mitchell as her campaign cratered in the final weeks of the 2010 election are standing with Michaud—at least for now. […]

The governor’s gender disparity is also reflected among respondents who said they plan to vote in the election. Forty-seven percent of women respondents said they would vote for Michaud compared to 27 percent for the governor and 15 percent for Cutler.

Michaud is the best opportunity for Maine to boot LePage, but to do so he has to expand and solidify his lead among those potentially wavering Democrats, and with women. We're trying to help him do that. So give $3 to help Mauchaud close the deal.

Originally posted to Joan McCarter on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 12:19 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (14+ / 0-)

    "The NSA’s capability at any time could be turned around on the American people, and no American would have any privacy left, such is the capability to monitor everything. [...] There would be no place to hide."--Frank Church

    by Joan McCarter on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 12:19:13 PM PDT

  •  Apparently nothing will budge Ralph Cutler ... (7+ / 0-)

    Out of this thing.  His ego is uncontainable.

    •  Hopefully Mainers (Mainiacs?) learned (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, slowbutsure

      that lesson last time, even if Cutler didn't.

      If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

      by CwV on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 12:30:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Looks like they do (5+ / 0-)

        Last time, Cutler was the defacto Dem nominee at the end due to Mitchell's weakness. That's not the case here. His support will be a fraction of last time.

        LePage's numbers are ugly. Cutler really is his only hope and it's fading fast.

        •  Good news that. (4+ / 0-)

          If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

          by CwV on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 12:58:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  LePage's numbers may be ugly but (4+ / 0-)

          they are precisely the numbers that got him elected Governor four years ago and they are precisely the percentage of Republicans in Maine.

          •  No, they aren't the same (0+ / 0-)

            Mike Michaud isn't Libby Mitchell. Elliot Cutler is dismissible as a spoiler, and everybody in this state truly and vehemently hates LePage.

            If you follow this closely, LePage has managed to piss off Maine's lobstermen and loggers, its elderly white voter demographic (99%), single mothers, working women, poor people who need EBT, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), and Maine Care (Medicaid) (12% of Maine's population is below poverty, not 200% of poverty but below poverty), labor, women in general, young people, and the sort of Republicans who voted for Margaret Chase Smith and think Olympia Snow and Susan Collins were liberals like her, (but have discovered they aren't).

            He has even managed to piss off and outrage Republicans to the point where Sheena Bellows has raised more money from Grass roots $5 contributions and volunteers than the Republicans Susan Collins and LePage have from the Koch brothers.

            "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

            by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:19:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Not only have Mainers learned (0+ / 0-)

          Warren Maine voted for Obama, Marijuana, and Marriage equality in the last election;  but getting rid of LePage has become a real necessity for survival in this state.

          "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

          by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:02:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Isn't that true of most politicians? (0+ / 0-)

      And -- why should he drop out?

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 02:39:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You have to ask? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        newcastlebill, TexasTom

        Because he can't win, and can make LePage win ... it's a Naderian ego-trip writ small, but still large enough to keep a fucking teabagger asshole as governor of a state that deserves better.

        ONE person, causing this damage.

        Just like Ralph (spit).  Only Nader's is still with us and will be for decades.

        •  You reflect perfectly (0+ / 0-)

          my opinion of Nader! Thanks!

          (Love the "spit").

          •  Not everyone here agrees, I know that ... (0+ / 0-)

            But it seems undeniable to me.  The numbers don't lie.

            Bush 2000 was the worst thing to happen to this country since World War II, and that includes 9-11, which might not have happened with a Gore administration actually paying attention.

        •  There are many reasons to run, and winning the (0+ / 0-)

          seat is only one of them.

          And, btw, that's an idiot analysis.

          It is not "ONE person, causing this damage."

          If nobody votes for him, there is no "damage", as you call it.

          Here's a question for you: How terrible have Democrats been that enough voters would vote for Cutler to keep Mauchaud from winning?

          If Mauchaud is worth voting for and LePage is that bad, Cutler won't make any difference.

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 06:32:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Mainers are not totally stupid (0+ / 0-)

          even those who might have voted for Cutler the first time hoping he would do better than Mitchell.

          "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

          by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:20:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  He may not think he's out of it (0+ / 0-)

      but nobody has an interest in him as a candidate.

      Essentially Mike Michaud is a huge Democratic favorite and even the Republicans have come to despise LePage who doesn't seem to have been able to go a whole day for all of his administration without outraging or harming some portion of his electorate.

      "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

      by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:01:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats should have bitten the bullet... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slowbutsure, buffie

    and voted for Cutler during the last election. The Democrat (Mitchell) didn't stand a chance based on polling numbers. This time, Cutler is the spoiler as Michaud is way ahead in the polls. So independents should bite the bullet and vote for Michaud this time, not Cutler. The alternative is far, far, far worse.

    If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

    by HairyTrueMan on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 12:45:14 PM PDT

    •  Or maybe Cutler should have run in the Dem primary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slowbutsure, newcastlebill

      and locked down all the Democratic votes in the general election.

      Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

      by bear83 on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 01:05:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cutler is too conservative for a New England (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slowbutsure

        Democrat.

      •  He's not a Democrat. (0+ / 0-)

        So there's that...

        If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

        by HairyTrueMan on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 06:27:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  And he would have lost the Democratic primary. (0+ / 0-)

        Yet he doubled the Democrat's vote total in the general election. We had a far left and a far right candidate, but Mainers are looking for something closer to the middle. Michaud was elected in the more conservative Congressional district and is certainly more "center" than Libby Mitchell.

        I always find it humorous when Democrats claim that Cutler was the unreasonable one in 2010. It was actually stubborn Democrats who put LePage in Augusta... and they drive around with 61% bumper stickers and pretend like they didn't play a pivotal role in LePage's election.

        If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

        by HairyTrueMan on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 06:37:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  use your commonsensemainers. vote/Michaud! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Samer, bear83, buffie, slowbutsure, DowneastDem

    decent wages don't eliminate jobs. Republicans eliminate jobs; and workers, and prospects, and then excuse it all and call for more austerity. there is no end to their ignorant, arrogant avarice. only political dinosaurs support their treachery.

    by renzo capetti on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 01:53:33 PM PDT

  •  Imagine if Maine (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    buffie, TexasTom

    had a California-style top two primary.

  •  Cutler is stealing votes from Michaud? (0+ / 0-)

    Or from LePage?

    What a dumbo.

    Ugh. --UB.

    The Republican Party is run by the KOCH BROTHERS.

    by unclebucky on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 02:23:55 PM PDT

    •  A little of both, but mostly taking votes (0+ / 0-)

      from Michaud. Dems have supposedly offered cushy political appointments to Cutler if he drops out, but he's too big of a narcissist to do it. All the Cutler 2010 voters I know are voting for Michaud this time around, and only voted for Cutler when it became clear he had a better chance than Mitchell to beat LePage last time. Hopefully other Cutler voters will migrate toward Michaud as it becomes clear that he's only a self-interested egomaniac.

      Unapologetic Obama supporter.

      by Red Sox on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 05:42:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cutler takes no votes this time around (0+ / 0-)

        In the last election the Democrat was a forty year party hack who was underfunded, campaigned weakly and generally didn't go out and work for the votes. Some People panicked and Voted for Cutler hoping to stop LePage.

        They have learned and already gotten rid of the Republicans who supported LePage in the legislature. Now we expect to see Michaud take LePage and Sheena Bellows take out Susan Collins as well because Mainers are more than fed up with anything and everything Republican.

        Maybe the final straw was getting healthcare from the ACA and realizing just how full of lies the Republicans have been, and then seeing that except for LePage and Collins voting against Medicaid and even Temporary Aid for Needy families, the single mothers and the children and the elderly and the disabled who are homeless in winter without food or heat or shelter.

        They voted against that aid while doing everything they could to strip funding from towns who might have offered public assistance, and taking the public money and giving it away in tax breaks and subsidies to the rich.

        "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

        by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:34:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  "Democrats who bailed on Libby Mitchell..." (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    newcastlebill

    deserved what they got: Governor LePage.

    I would hope that one of the messages of the Michaux campaign is very simple:

    A vote for Cutler = a vote for LePage.

    If Eliot Cutler really cared about the citizens of Maine, he'd bow out and endorse Michaux. Since he's a preening, narcissistic egomaniac, that's unlikely to happen, unfortunately.

    •  Nobody deserves LePage (0+ / 0-)

      Libby Mitchell was a 40 year party hack. If you go to the Democratic State Committee Meetings where the local county Executive Committees decide who is going to run you would note the difference in energy levels between candidates like Libby Mitchell and Mike Michaud. This year we also have a young female ACLU experienced, grass roots funded Sheena Bellows who is really campaigning hard against Susan Collins and making her mark as a progressive.

      "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

      by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:39:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm betting Cutler will drop out. (0+ / 0-)

    LePage-hatred is the driving dynamic of the election. Cutler must be disappointed by his numbers here after getting 36% in the last election. Michaud's getting lots of money from out of state, and I suspect will be getting hospital corporation money as well because of LePage hugely unpopular refusal of Medicaid expansion funds.

    Cutler recently cut another $100,000 check to self-finance his campaign. Sooner or later he'll read the tea leaves, and quit throwing good money after bad. Still I encourage you all to pitch in if you're inclined!

    Battling psychiatric myths with sensible skepticism at www.makingsenseofpsychiatry.com

    by candid psychiatrist on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 02:35:08 PM PDT

  •  Kind of a sad commentary, though, that (0+ / 0-)

    LePage would be so hated and the Democrat still has to worry about third party votes.

    If that's truly the case, either Mauchaud or Maine's Democratic party are not very impressive.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 02:42:31 PM PDT

    •  It's a Maine thing, like Allen's Coffee Brandy.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dinotrac, mayim

      ...whoopie pies, and Moxie. Mainers just like voting for independent candidates. Don't ask me why.

      Battling psychiatric myths with sensible skepticism at www.makingsenseofpsychiatry.com

      by candid psychiatrist on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 03:16:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There are a lot of... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dinotrac

      ...soi-disant progressives up here, many of them people whose politics is based on getting the politics -- and politicians -- out of politics, who will vote for any politician who announces loudly enough "Hey! I'm not a politician!" (Angus King) or just don't sound like a politician (Susan Collins.)

      Hell, Perot beat Bush here in '92 -- one of Bush's home states, largely because he wasn't a politician.

      That's Cutler's base. Totebaggers. (It's also MPBN's base.) And though it evaporates when you get west of the Turnpike, east of the Turnpike, where the seagulls aren't limited to the ones at the dump, he's got real support -- and that's where the numbers are.

      Michaud, despite his paper mill worker roots, is perceived as being a politician. Perhaps because of his mill worker roots, to the extent that unions are seen as part of 'politics'.

      The superfluous goods of the rich are necessary to the poor, and when you possess the superfluous you possess what is not yours." St. Augustine

      by Davis X Machina on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 03:17:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Michaud is viewed as a working man (0+ / 0-)

        which a lot of Democrats are in this state. He came out of the union struggles against the northern landowners.

        Being gay and out doesn't hurt in this state. Being solidly behind the interests of the loggers who LePage alienated with a somewhat gross and vulgar comment about Troy Jackson is a big positive for Michaud, and on the midcoast the lobstermen love him.

        Bonnie Post from Owl's Head (Knox) is in his corner, and Ben Grant (Cumberland), all of the coast; Saint George and Thomaston up to the Peoples Republic of Bangor, so he does have strong political support but he also has an electorate that is really fed up with LePage and Collins taking the food out of their children's mouths and hurting the poor and the elderly, the single mothers and the disabled, voting against TANF and EBT, the Medicaid expansion to the ACA, advocting tax policies which take money from cities and towns to give it to the rich in tax breaks and subsidies.

        "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

        by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 02:52:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know Ben Grant personally... (0+ / 0-)

          ..and he's a lovely fellow, but if his neighbors all vote for Cutler again, we get LePage.

          There are enough prosperous, comfortable salt-water voters who don't care what happens to single mothers, the poor, the elderly, and those who need ACA. General assistance for immigrants is nowhere near the burning issue that the closure of Miyake Diner is.

          They do care about appearances, and choose their candidates with an eye towards making a statement to neighbors and friends by their choices in consumer goods politicians, to throw the election to LePage.

          Because politics isn't about policies, it's all about 'me'. It might be a matter of life and death to some poor bastard in Dover-Foxcroft, but to them it's about self-expression, and social signalling. It's the politics of avoiding una brutta figura.

          And these people vote.

          The superfluous goods of the rich are necessary to the poor, and when you possess the superfluous you possess what is not yours." St. Augustine

          by Davis X Machina on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 05:42:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ben Grant's neighbors wouldn't vote for Cutler (0+ / 0-)

            I expect a lot of them would be wealthy and thus perhaps Republicans who would sound much like you do.

            However, most  prosperous salt water voters with wharfage are really concerned about the flood plain insurance maps which have already raised flood insurance rates in Cumberland and York to $2.10 per $100 of value for shore front property.

            Rising sea levels are projected to take their homes by 2050 as is the case with a great number of expensive East Coast residences belonging to prosperous salt water voters and the Republican politicians  won't even admit there is such a thing as climate change.

            Now you may not think general assistance for immigrants is an issue, but 12% of multi generation born and bred Maine fishermen and loggers are living below the poverty line and those people vote for Mike Michaud rather than the guy who made crude remarks about Troy Jackson.

            In many cases "prosperous, comfortable salt-water voters" in Maine do care what happens to single mothers, the poor, the elderly, and those who need ACA because they are family; either children having a tough time paying off student loans and finding jobs in the state, or elderly parents who once were themselves prosperous but have found paying for a chronic disease such as cancer takes everything you have and more.

            People who think themselves prosperous generally find there is always somebody whose yacht is just a bit longer, or whose sports car is just a bit faster, or whose jewelry a bit more sparkly, but of that group those who come to Maine generally learn that too much is never enough and that there is something about this place that turns rich people from away into summer complaints.

            Caretakers live in their homes, boat monkeys rig and launch their boats so they can get them wet and then haul them and put them back under wraps and laugh at the pretense with the Bermuda racers who always seem to want to do all their own work and hang with the monkeys.

            "la vida no vale nada un lugar solita" "The Limits of Control Jim Jarmusch

            by rktect on Tue Jun 24, 2014 at 08:27:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  *ahem* (0+ / 0-)

    DemocratIC Rep. Mike Michaud....

    "Much of movement conservatism is a con and the base is the marks." -- Chris Hayes

    by raptavio on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 03:02:42 PM PDT

  •  Obviously men cannot be trusted (0+ / 0-)

    to vote sensibly.  They should never have been given the right to vote.

  •   so this has been pretty stable, poll wise for (0+ / 0-)

    awhile
     Michuad is at 40, Lepage at 36, Cutler at 15. you figure most of Cutlers vote would go to Michaud and we're likely talking a 57-43 pounding if it was just Michuad vs Lepage. Lepage won in 38 percent in a 5 way race. Maines have an affinity for independent candidates, but to be honest Maine desperately needs to have a runoff provision . that would have triggered a runoff in 2010 which Cutler likely would have won.

  •  Fool me one; don't get fooled again (0+ / 0-)

    The first time around you could put the result off on an electoral fluke, but if it happens a second time, then I think it says something about Maine.


    My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.—Carl Schurz
    "Shared sacrifice!" said the spider to the fly.—Me

    by KingBolete on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 06:01:53 PM PDT

  •  Angus King could put this to rest. (0+ / 0-)

    Cutler is his guy but he has to know that if he stays in the race the ME Governorship will become more than just the laughingstock of the country that it is now; it will become the epitaph for Maine's economy and social structure.

    King has too much invested in the history of the state's chief executive office to stand by.  My question is whether he's angling for a Senate committee chairmanship as the price for cutting Cutler (his BFF) loose by either convincing him to step aside or, failing that, to endorse Michaud...

    "Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you succeed." - Nancy Pelosi, 6/30/07 // "Succeed?" At what?

    by nailbender on Mon Jun 23, 2014 at 06:33:03 PM PDT

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