This is one of a series of diaries I am writing about the lopsided state of House of Representatives races throughout the US. These diaries focus on this distortion created by single-member districts through the lens of FairVote’s analyses and proposed reforms . All race projections are from our Monopoly Politics 2014 report, which projected 333 races last cycle, each one correct. For this election, our updated report projects 368 winners, although most of the remaining 62 races have a clear lean as well. Our projections rely only on relative presidential outcomes in districts and relative performances of House candidates, and we’ll be releasing our 2016 House election projections on November 6, two days after the general election. That we can forecast almost 400 races two days after the general election is not a testament to our forecasting abilities, but rather a demonstration of how flawed our democracy truly is.
Today is host to another round of primaries across the nation. On today’s slate is Maryland, along with Utah and Oklahoma, among a couple of others. In previous posts, I have focused on states where single-member districts combined with gerrymandering have significantly disadvantaged Democrats. Today, however, I thought I would change it up: Maryland is perhaps the most egregious example of Democratic gerrymandering, almost completely excluding Republicans from the political process in regards to the House.
That said, even in states where single-member districts advantage Democrats (there aren’t nearly as many of these as there are for the GOP), switching to ranked choice voting with multi-seat districts can still prove beneficial. This is because it will be easier to elect true progressives in these districts, which I will explain later.
In terms of horserace banter, all of the excitement in the Old Line State has revolved around the governor’s race. O’Malley is term-limited, and three Dems and four Republicans are jostling to replace him. But as far as House races go, no upsets are expected, and every seat is more or less safe. That doesn’t mean we won’t see a primary blindside, a la Eric Cantor, but there is nothing specific to keep your eye on. In the general, Maryland Republicans have been pouring all of their House money into Democrat John Delaney’s sixth district. He will likely face former Secret Service agent Dan Bongino. Even that seems like a stretch, though.
Maryland – The Landscape
If you haven’t seen Maryland’s congressional district map, you are doing yourself a disservice. The districts are a work of art, so much so that Elbridge Gerry might shed a tear if he were here to see them. The GOP put up a good fight with the North Carolina map, but it’s not quite as impressive.
The end result is that Maryland has 7 safe Democratic seats and 1 safe Republican seat. In the last presidential election, about 35% of Marylanders voted for Romney, so in a just (proportional) world, we might expect to have an extra seat or two in the delegation, depending on the political climate.
Methodology
FairVote’s projections are grounded in two factors:
1. The partisanship of a district. This is determined by the performance of major party candidates in a presidential race relative to their performance nationally. Charlie Cook later adapted this to create his PVI.
2. Performance Over Average Candidate (POAC). This is determined by how a candidate fares relative to what we would expect for an average candidate of the same party and incumbency status in his/her district.
The incumbent with the strongest POAC score is John Delaney, with a score of 8.8%. The weakest incumbent was Donna Edwards, with a POAC of -1.8%. You can see our full Maryland report here.
2014 Projections
Like all other forecasting outfits, we are projecting for the distribution of seats to remain the same this cycle: 7 for the Democrats and 1 for the Republicans. Republicans think they can beat Delaney because the partisanship of the district is pretty even. But as we can see from his high POAC score, he significantly outperforms what would be expected of a typical Democratic candidate.
What Maryland Needs
Maryland obviously could have had a better redistricting map for Republicans if they had drawn it. They probably would have had a fairer map if an independent commission had drawn it as well.
But the root of the problem goes much deeper. As people continue to sort themselves into likeminded communities, urban areas are becoming more liberal and less urban areas becoming more conservative. As I have pointed out in previous posts, this self-selection means that independent redistricting commissions can only do so much. Achieving competitive districts would require familiar snake-like districts.
The best solution is to create larger “super districts” that each elect 3 or 5 Representatives. FairVote has developed a national plan to do that, as it shows with this interactive flash map analyzing districts as they are and as they could be. We recommend that candidates be elected by ranked choice voting (RCV), where voters rank candidates. In multi-seat districts, the percentage of the vote declines with the number of seats – it is just over 25% of the vote in a three-seat district and about 17% seat districts. Done nationally, it would completely remove the incredible partisan bias we now see in U. S. house races, where Democrats are unlikely to retake the House without surpassing 55% of the vote, as we explain in this analysis.
In contrast to the current plan, our Fair Voting plan projects 3 Republican seats and 5 Democratic seats. Considering the gains Dems would make elsewhere in the country if this reform were enacted, this should be a sacrifice they should be willing to make. Furthermore, there are some serious benefits to electing candidates this way. For instance, in a district that elects 5 candidates, a candidate must only receive 17% of the vote to guarantee election. That means that progressives, Greens, and other groups who are typically left out of the process will be able to actually elect their candidate of choice. So while Fair Voting requires losses for Democrats in Maryland, it would produce nationwide gains and would also allow reformers, outsiders, and third party candidates to have an actual shot at running for office. In the end this enhanced ability to elect outsiders will force both Congress and the parties in it to be more accountable.
Adopting a plan that actively creates competition (and allows both parties to earn their share of seats) is the best way forward. All it requires is a statutory change from the US Congress. While that might not seem feasible now, it could very well happen in the future – especially if we recognize that our current gridlock stems from the structural failure of our electoral system.