In 2006, Dr. S. Chapman at the University of Sydney and his colleagues published a report on firearm suicides and death in the years before and after the 1996 NFA law. Data on firearm deaths came from the National Injury Surveillance unit of the Australian Bureau of Statistics mortality data for the years 1979 – 2003. The research team noted the following statistically significant changes:
Average yearly number of firearm deaths prior to 1996 = 627.7; after 1996 = 332.6.
Average yearly number of firearm suicides prior to 1996 = 491.7; after 1996 = 246.6
Average yearly number of firearm homicides prior to 1996 = 92.9; after 1996 = 55.6
Dr. Chapman reported he could find no evidence of a “substitution effect” - a hypothesized phenomenon whereby a lack of guns would result in increased numbers of non-firearm suicides and non-firearm homicides. Indeed, after 1996, the total number of non-firearm suicides declined an average of 4.1% per annum, while the total number of homicides (by any method) declined an average of 3.0% per annum. The differences between pre-1996 and post-1996 annual rates of non-firearm suicides and homicides by any method were both statistically significant.
Perhaps most importantly, Dr. Chapman reports that Australia experienced 13 mass shootings (defined as shooting incidents resulting in 4 or more deaths) in the 18 years prior to the institution of the NFA, and zero mass shooting events in the ten years following the NFA (and I believe there have not been any mass shooting events in the years since the publication of this report).
The authors conclude that after implementation of the gun reform laws, Australia saw declines in the number of mass shooting events, total firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and firearm homicides. There was no evidence of a substitution effect in homicide or suicide deaths. The authors say that removing large numbers of guns may be an effective means of reducing mass shootings, and firearm homicides and suicides.
(Source: Chapman, S., Injury Prevention Dec. 2006; 12(6):365-372)
Writing in the British Journal of Criminology in 2007, Baker and McPhedran report that firearm suicide rates in Australia were declining in the period prior to passage of the NFA, while non-firearm suicides were increasing. After the NFA, the researchers observed further reductions in firearm suicides (statistically significant lowering of post-NFA firearm suicides from what was predicted by pre-NFA firearm suicide rates), and no significant change in the rate of non-firearm suicides post-NFA. Overall, the total suicide numbers in the years 1997-1998 were significantly increased from previous years, but thereafter, fell off sharply. This finding was interpreted as evidence of some suicide method substitution in the period immediately following passage of the NFA, which was in subsequent years replaced by overall decreases in suicides. The authors conclude that the NFA had the effect of increasing declines in firearm suicides, and reversing increases in non-firearm suicides.
(Source: J. Baker, S McPhedran, Br. J. Criminology, 2007)
Dr. Leigh Neill examined Australian crime statistics in a 2010 report in the American Law and Economics Review. He reported that following the 1996 NFA, there was a decrease of slightly less than 80% in firearm suicides in Australia, with no significant change in non-firearm suicide rates. A similar decrease was observed in the number of firearm homicides.
(Source: N. Leigh, Am Law Econ Rev 12(2):462; 2010)
Dr. Bricknell used data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to look at historical trends in homicide and other crimes in Australia. The author reports that Australian homicides peaked at 2.0 homicides/100,000 population during the 1980s, and generally declined thereafter. In 1989-90 there were 330 homicides in Australia, dropping to 301 homicides in 2005-06.
In Australia, assault is the most common violent crime. Assaults in Australia have been increasing – from 562.8/100,000 population in 1995 to 829.4/100,000 in 2006. The increase was seen for both men and women, and for youths aged < 15.
There have been two peaks in the incidence of armed robbery in Australia: in 1998 and again in 2001. Since then, the incidence of armed robbery has steadily declined. In 2001, the rate of armed robbery was slightly less than 60/100,000 population, and in 2006 that rate had dropped to 36.5/100,000 population.
The authors conclude that the incidence of homicide and armed robbery is decreasing in Australia. The authors note that there exists inconsistencies in the reporting of assault statistics in different sources, and this makes the interpretation of assault statistics more uncertain.
(Source: S. Bricknell. Trends and issues in Crime and Criminal Justice no. 359)
|