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Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback speaking at the Conservative Political Action Committee Conference
Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R)
Whoa! We knew GOP Gov. Sam Brownback was unpopular, but this unpopular? A new SurveyUSA poll finds Democrat Paul Davis, the state House minority leader, beating Brownback 47-41 (with Libertarian Keen Umbehr at 5), an improvement from Davis' already-remarkable 43-39 edge last October. A pair of PPP polls taken in between also placed Davis on top, and the only contradictory numbers have come from a Republican pollster (which had Brownback at just 42) and Rasmussen, which, well, Rasmussen.

What's more, Brownback has a weak 55-37 lead in the GOP primary against his Some Dude opponent, Jennifer Winn, the mother of a man charged with felony murder after a drug deal turned deadly. Winn has now become an advocate for marijuana reform (as well as hemp legalization) and says she has no specific beef with Brownback. In other words, she's a classic non-serious candidate who should be polling in single digits at best, but here she is nearly cracking 40. Ya think Kansans are sick of Brownback? (If you want to know more about why, click here.)

In fact, Kansas voters don't seem to be too thrilled with Republican office-holders in general. In the Senate race, veteran GOP Sen. Pat Roberts only manages a blechy 43-33 advantage on Democrat Chad Taylor, his most likely general election opponent. A Taylor upset seems almost impossible on paper, but for an inoffensive incumbent like Roberts to be mired in the low 40s in a state like Kansas is really remarkable. Roberts does seem to be keeping his tea-fueled primary challenger at bay, though, with a 56-23 lead on physician Milton Wolf. Given that Wolf has actually gotten some attention and is at least running a traditional outsider's campaign, that makes Brownback's primary showing look even worse.

But while Brownback could definitely lose, can he take the rest of the ship down with him? Again, Roberts would be very hard to dislodge, but perhaps a few more marginal state legislators could find themselves anvil'd to the bottom of Brownback Bay. But even if "only" Brownback goes down, that would still be an amazing result for Sunflower State Democrats.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 26, 2014 at 01:56 PM PDT.

Also republished by Kansas & Missouri Kossacks and Daily Kos.

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