So we had an interesting discussion on the Live Digest about a fantasy scenario in which the part of Louisiana that is east of Baton Rouge and north of Lake Ponchartrain were part of neighboring Mississippi. I decided to blow off some steam on a very hot day by doing some map-making to see what the congressional district maps in the states of Louisiana and Mississippi might look like with (a) fair redistricting and (b) this fantasy scenario in effect.
The standard disclaimer applies: I am not advocating that this happen, I do not think it will actually ever happen, I am just having a bit of fun, etc. etc.
First things first: I am not sure exactly how many districts each state would have. The portion of Louisiana in question, which I will henceforth refer to as "the Purchase", had some 541,234 souls at the 2010 Census. Taking it away from Louisiana and giving it to Mississippi, funnily enough, plops both states into a no-man's-land for easy congressional district calculations: in the case of Louisiana, a population of 3,992,138 (between Oregon, which has five CDs, and Kentucky, which has six), and in the case of Mississippi, a population of 3,508,531 (between Iowa, which has four CDs, and Connecticut, which has five). Thanks to benamery21, who did some math after I finished up my maps, it appears Mississippi would gain a district (increasing from four CDs to five) while Louisiana would just barely keep its sixth district, at the expense of bubble-rider Minnesota, but for the sake of completionism, I will present maps of both states with five CDs, as well as Mississippi with just four CDs and Louisiana with six CDs.
Mississippi (four districts)
The Magnolia State is fattened up a bit, and if the number of districts were (improbably) to hold steady, each CD would average more than 877,000 people. Yeesh.
MS-01 (blue): Let's get to the Purchase right off the bat. First of all, this part of Louisiana is highly conservative, giving 73.8% of its votes to Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. This Gulf Coast district takes in the most populous swath of the Purchase, combining it with a conservative area of similar population in Mississippi proper. This is a pretty pure community-of-interest district. Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo, who recently survived a primary challenge from party-switcher Gene Taylor by an unexpectedly thin margin, lives here; considering Palazzo's weak showing in the primary, I think he would be vulnerable if his district suddenly took on new turf in the Purchase. But a Democrat would have a better shot in West Texas than here. 26.2-72.4 McCain.
MS-02 (green): This is the minority-majority district in Mississippi, which probably can't be dismantled despite the leg shot the Supreme Court delivered to the Voting Rights Act in 2013. Like the current district, it's not incredibly Democratic, but because of Mississippi voters are stubbornly inelastic, it's effectively a safe seat. Some may quibble with the district's inclusion of tony Rankin County, but it's suburban Jackson, and I was going for communities of interest over everything else on my maps, rather than the ugly machete job the state legislature did on the Jackson area to keep white-flight neighborhoods free of the horror (snark) that is being represented by moderate Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson. If Republicans had free rein here, they would draw the map differently, no doubt -- especially because influential Republican Rep. Gregg Harper lives here, too, in Pearl. 54.3-45.1 Obama.
MS-03 (purple): This district in north Mississippi is the only potential battleground of the four. Democrats have traditionally run a bit stronger in the north than they have in the south in Mississippi, and this district takes in a portion of the Mississippi Delta that has a substantial black population. That being said, Republicans have the advantage here -- not the least of which is an incumbent congressman in Rep. Alan Nunnelee of Tupelo. If Democratic Atty. Gen. Jim Hood ever decides to run for Congress, this seat could flip...maybe. It's pretty darn red. 39.8-59.2 McCain.
MS-04 (red): The remainder of the Purchase goes here, in this Pine Belt-based district. Harper is redistricted into MS-02, but under a Republican-drawn map, he'd certainly be gerrymandered in, and if he were unavailable, there is no shortage of Republicans looking to move up the ladder in this very, very Republican part of the state. Of mild interest for Democrats is that Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, his party's sacrificial lamb in the 2011 gubernatorial race, also lives here -- but the district is red through and through, almost certainly too much so for DuPree to make a go of it. 38.6-60.6 McCain.
Louisiana (six districts)
The Pelican State looks a bit more emaciated. The loss of a very conservative corner of the state means that each one of six districts will average about 665,500 people. Unlike the previous map, this six-district configuration is actually likely, if benamery21's calculations are accurate.
LA-01 (blue): This district is anchored in Shreveport. The northwestern corner of Louisiana has never been overly inhospitable for Democrats, but these days, it's definitely Republican territory. Republican Rep. John Fleming lives in Minden, included in the district. Although a few parishes drop and add compared to the current LA-04, it's not enough to give Fleming much of a headache here. 41.1-57.9 McCain.
LA-02 (green): Just like its counterpart next door, this is a minority-majority district that Republicans probably can't get rid of. It's based in New Orleans, but it takes in several sparsely populated bayou parishes, as well as the racially mixed south side of New Orleans' evil twin, Jefferson Parish. I have done away with the ridiculous racial gerrymander in the current district, again preferring compact districts that represent communities of interest. The district looks across Lake Ponchartrain at the swampy shores of the Purchase. Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond is a lock here, of course; it would literally take a freezer full of cash for this district to flip to Republican control. 61.6-36.7 Obama.
LA-03 (purple): This ended up as sort of a "leftovers" district. It's a mostly white, conservative mirror image to safe blue LA-02, containing a similar blend of population centers and sunken landscapes a la "True Detective" Season 1. The newly minted House majority whip, Republican Rep. Steve Scalise, lives here -- just across the Mississippi River from LA-02, in Jefferson. Assuming he's not caught hanging out with the Yellow King, he's just fine here, despite losing the portion of the Purchase in his current district. 33.1-65.1 McCain.
LA-04 (red): The boot heel of Louisiana, with the south-central city of Lafayette as its main population center. Lafayette is the hometown of Republican Rep. Charles Boustany, and just about all of this turf is familiar to him. The only potential problem for Boustany would come from the right, and he turned back a challenge from then-Rep. Jeff Landry in 2012 after the two were deathmatched together when Louisiana lost its seventh congressional district. 35.4-63 McCain.
LA-05 (yellow): This is a bit more interesting. Because I undid the Republican gerrymander that packs Richmond's current district with Democratic parts of the Baton Rouge area, this Baton Rouge-based district is actually on the cusp of being competitive with a good candidate for Team Blue. The district borders the Purchase while covering generally less archconservative turf. Fun fact: did you know West Baton Rouge Parish and East Baton Rouge Parish have trended in opposite directions politically over the past couple of decades? Vice President Al Gore won the former parish by a hair in 2000, but lost the latter by a decent margin, while then-Sen. Barack Obama did just the opposite in 2008, and again as president in 2012, doing a bit better in both the second time. (Then-Sen. John Kerry lost both parishes in 2004 by about the same margin; President Bill Clinton won both in 1996.) I digress. Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy, who is retiring to run for Senate, lives here, in Baton Rouge; among the lively cast of characters running to succeed him in the existing, stalwartly Republican analog of this district (LA-06) are ex-felon former Gov. Edwin Edwards, a Democrat; conspiracy-touting state Rep. Lenar! Whitney, a Republican; and persistent thorn in the side of Gov. Bobby Jindal, state Sen. Dan Claitor, also a Republican. Edwards and Claitor would reside in this district. 46.9-51.8 McCain.
LA-06 (teal): Back to blah, as this district is only fun for us in that it is the home of Republican Rep. Vance McAllister, a.k.a. "the kissing congressman". Whether it's McAllister or somebody else, the representative from this district, which sweeps from northeastern Louisiana down to Calcasieu Parish in the southwestern part of the state, will be a Republican. 34.6-63.9 McCain.
Mississippi (five districts)
Now, I am told that this is the likely configuration for Mississippi under this fantasy scenario. That being said, fair redistricting in the South might be a fantasy even beyond this land swap, so take the district lines with a grain of salt, as before. The average district size is about 701,500 people.
MS-01 (blue): This time, the southern district takes in the entire Purchase, but it only keeps to the western portion of Mississippi's Gulf Coast. That means Palazzo, who lives in Gulfport, actually doesn't live here; he would probably have to run in the other coastal district. Regardless of Palazzo, this district is solidly Republican, thanks to the aforementioned blood-red character of the Purchase. There are a few black-majority pockets in the district, perhaps most notably in western Amite County, but they are heavily outnumbered by white Republicans here. It's only slightly less red than the equivalent district on the four-CD map. 27.1-71.4 McCain.
MS-02 (green): I did pretty much the same thing with Thompson's district here as I did on the other map, and while the district isn't able to take in as much of the Delta as Thompson would probably like, it should be solid as long as Democratic turnout doesn't drop too much in midterm elections. Harper might actually try his luck here, but I don't think it would go over well. 52.7-46.7 Obama.
MS-03 (purple): This ends up as the "leftovers" district on the map, stretching from Lincoln City in southwestern Mississippi nearly to the Tennessee border. Nunnelee actually lives here, although much of the district would be unfamiliar to him, and he could easily face a primary challenge from Harper, who is redistricted into the minority-majority seat. It pretty accurately reflects the political split of the expanded Mississippi as a whole -- meaning Democrats don't have much of a shot here. 40.5-58.6 McCain.
MS-04 (red): Still with me? Okay. This district actually looks a lot better as a potential battleground than the version on the four-CD map, as it avoids the heavily conservative Tupelo area and grabs more of the Delta. No congressional incumbent lives here, which wouldn't prevent Nunnelee from running. Like LA-05 on the other map, it's tantalizingly close to being competitive, but politics in the Deep South are famously inelastic, and a winning Democrat would have to build a coalition between black Democrats (likely to comprise a majority of the primary vote), white Demosaurs, and establishment Republicans who might be turned off by the sort of Tea Party candidate who could emerge from 2014 Senate candidate Chris McDaniel's primary election stronghold of the Memphis suburbs, included at the north end of this district. Easier said than done. 45.9-53.2 McCain.
MS-05 (yellow): The remaining part of the Gulf Coast is here, along with Hattiesburg and part of the Pine Belt. It's a bit of a hodgepodge, but it's very Republican, and Gulfport native Palazzo should have an easy time here -- provided he doesn't fall to a primary challenge from the likes of McDaniel, who lives in the district. 33.2-65.9 McCain.
Louisiana (five districts)
Judging by benamery21's numbers, Louisiana would be expected to keep its sixth district under this scenario -- but only just. If it went down to five districts, each district would average about 799,500 people under 2010 Census numbers. That's not an unreasonable size.
LA-01 (blue): This is basically the same district as on the six-CD map, except that it takes in moderately populous Ouachita Parish, the seat of which is Monroe. It's still Fleming country, although Monroe actually provides Democrats with a prospective candidate in Mayor Jamie Mayo, who ran unsuccessfully for the more heavily conservative LA-05 in a 2013 special election, failing to make the runoff. This district is basically a microcosm of the state politically, though, so it's tough sledding. 40.7-58.2 McCain.
LA-02 (green): I did something a little bit different with Richmond's district on this map, gobbling up Metairie and staying mostly clear of the bayou. Oddly enough, the district is actually markedly less Democratic this way, as well as whiter, although it's still minority-majority. Scalise would live here, but he would be unhappy trying to represent it in Congress and would best stay out of Richmond's way. But Republicans could do worse than to try to recruit former Rep. Joseph Cao (the moderate Republican who represented the district for a term after a scandal badly tarnished then-Rep. William Jefferson, the Democratic congressman in 2008) for a long-shot bid. 54.8-43.6 Obama.
LA-03 (purple): This district looks better than the six-CD version, at least. It's a dedicated bayou district, sweeping from the Texas border out to the waters off Mississippi's Gulf Coast. This is Boustany's district, although he wouldn't live here (he is in Lafayette) much of the eastern portion would be new territory for him, and a challenge to the right from someone like Houma resident Lenar! wouldn't be a shock. 35.3-62.8 McCain.
LA-04 (red): Aside from sprawling a bit more westward, this district is very similar to the Baton Rouge seat on the other map, and the same caveats apply. This version is slightly redder, which might just be enough to put it comprehensively out of range -- but who knows. Voting patterns in this area, as noted, are in considerable flux. Again, Cassidy is the incumbent here, but he's vacating and the race to succeed him is as wild as any election in the country this cycle. Who knows what could happen? 46.3-52.4 McCain.
LA-05 (yellow): This is pretty much the same as LA-06 on the other map, but with a key distinction -- it contains Lafayette, a distinctly southern Louisiana city and the hometown of Charles Boustany, who could run here or could run in the more familiar LA-03. He would face a joke of an opposition in Vance McAllister if he sticks it out here -- or could run into a more establishment-flavored candidate if and when McAllister loses. Democrats can forget about this one. You would think cities like Lafayette and Alexandria would give Team Blue a bit of a base, but they really don't in Louisiana. 32.9-65.5 McCain.
Overall conclusions:
This has been fun, but I honestly can't say that moving the region I have humorously called "the Purchase" from Louisiana to Mississippi would make an appreciable difference, except maybe to Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, who is fighting this year for her political life.
Louisiana broke 39.9-58.6 in the 2008 presidential race; while President Obama did slightly better there in 2012, it's still a damn red state, and losing the Purchase doesn't really change that: the new 2008 numbers would be 42-56.5.
Mississippi, meanwhile, goes from 43-56.2 to 40.2-58.9 in terms of 2008 results when the Purchase is added. That gives you a sense of how bleak the picture is for Democrats in these former Southern strongholds -- the actual, real-life Mississippi is still bluer than Louisiana would be in this fantasy scenario!
Districts are basically a wash. There's no way to construct a second Democratic district or even a real fair fight seat in either state without extensive gerrymandering, and if Republicans retained full control of the redistricting levers (as is overwhelmingly likely), they could gerrymander both states very similarly to what they have done this decade. If benamery21's numbers are right (Mississippi adds a fifth district and Louisiana holds steady at six), the loser would appear to be Minnesota, which barely escaped the 2010 Census with all eight of its CDs and would have to surrender its eighth district to make room for MS-05. I dealt with that possibility in a (much) earlier diary, which you can read here.
Thoughts? Comments? Inevitable angry critiques from people who assume I actually believe Mississippi should annex a chunk of Louisiana?