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Leading Off:

CO-Gov: Looks like Bob Beauprez's going to do as well in Colorado as Mitt Romney did. Democratic oppo researchers just dropped a bomb on the GOP's post-primary "unity tour" in the form of an unearthed clip of some Beauprez remarks from 2010 that will sound awfully familiar:

"I see something that frankly doesn't surprise me, having been on Ways and Means Committee: 47 percent of all Americans pay no federal income tax. I'm guessing that most of you in this room are not in that 47 percent—God bless you—but what that tells me is that we've got almost half the population perfectly happy that somebody else is paying the bill, and most of that half is you all.

"I submit to you that there is a political strategy to get slightly over half and have a permanent ruling majority by keeping over half of the population dependent on the largesse of government that somebody else is paying for."

Remarkably, Beauprez's campaign defended his statements, saying, "It is a sad state of affairs when people are in an economic situation where they are not able to pay federal income tax." Beauprez may have shoved his foot down his throat two years before Romney did, but he's also had two more years since then to learn from Mitt's legendary blunder ... so how does he not know that many of the "47 percent" are retired senior citizens. Does Beauprez want them paying taxes?

Hell, since when do Republicans want more people to pay taxes anyway? And didn't we just go through all this in 2012? If Republicans are trying to repeat of what went down that year, then Democrats are just incredibly lucky. But debacles like this happen so regularly, it's getting hard to believe in luck. At this point, it's almost like fate.

2Q Fundraising:

NH-Sen: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): $2.8 million raised, $5.1 million cash-on-hand

GA-Gov: Jason Carter (D): $2 million raised, $1.8 million cash-on-hand

KY-Gov: Hal Heiner (R): $4.38 million raised in 2014, $3.9 million cash-on-hand (race is in 2015)

NM-Gov (May 28-June 28): Susana Martinez (R-inc): $875,000 raised, $4.3 million cash-on-hand; Gary King (D): $121,000 raised, $200,000 loaned, $116,000 cash-on-hand

CA-17: Mike Honda (D-inc): $500,000 raised, $1 million cash-on-hand

CA-52: Scott Peters (D-inc): $700,000 raised, $1.92 million cash-on-hand; Carl DeMaio (R): $613,000 raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand

IL-10: Brad Schneider (D-inc): $795,000 raised, $1.9 million cash-on-hand; Bob Dold! (R): $610,000 raised, $1.65 million cash-on-hand

IL-13: Rodney Davis (R-inc): $550,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand

WV-02: Nick Casey (D): $332,000 raised, $873,000 cash-on-hand

(Jeff Singer)

Senate:

HI-Sen, -Gov: Former Gov. John Waihee has endorsed Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary, the latest member of the establishment to rally around the incumbent, who faces a challenge from Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. Schatz also earned the backing of the local Carpenters union, as did Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie.

MN-Sen, -Gov: Gravis Marketing: Sen. Al Franken (D-inc): 51, Mike McFadden (R): 35. Gov. Mark Dayton (D-inc): 52, Jeff Johnson (R): 37.

NC-Sen: Jim Morrill at the Charlotte Observer totes up all the outside spending in North Carolina's hotly contested Senate race, where both sides have already poured in a ton of money. Only $11.4 million has been filed with the FEC in the form of independent expenditure reports, but the actual total has now eclipsed $26 million, thanks to dark money issue ads that don't need to be reported. Republicans have outspent Democrats almost two-to-one, $17 million to $9 million, and yet the race remains a tossup.

SC-Sen-A: Nutbar Thomas Ravenel, the former South Carolina state treasurer who resigned in 2007 after getting indicted for buying cocaine, says he's running for Senate as an independent. Ravenel is a former Republican, so in some alternate universe, he could conceivably draw votes away from Sen. Lindsey Graham and make the general election interesting. But Ravenel is such a joke (he's now a star of a reality TV show) that it's impossible to see him playing any role beyond comic relief.

Gubernatorial:

AK-Gov: In the limited polling we've seen of the Alaska governor's race, Republican Gov. Sean Parnell hasn't looked very dominant, but with the field against him split between multiple candidates, no single opponent has been able to emerge as a real threat. That's confirmed in a new internal poll from Ivan Moore Research for Republican-turned-independent Bill Walker, which finds Parnell beating Walker 42-29, with Democrat Byron Mallot all the way back at 16.

PPP, by contrast, has twice placed Mallot in second with Walker trailing, but both pollsters agree that the incumbent is only in "soft plurality" territory. However, Walker's poll also tested hypothetical two-way matchups, and there things get more interesting. While Parnell handily beats Mallot 55-34, he edges Walker just 46-45. Given that Walker is a former Republican, it makes sense that he'd be able to draw more crossover votes than Mallot. At the same time, the centerpiece of Walker's campaign is his opposition to an unpopular tax cut for oil companies that Parnell pushed through the legislature last year, so he's capable of winning Democratic support, too.

But could this contest really turn into a one-on-one affair? It doesn't seem likely. While Mallot and Walker have offered kind words for one another on the campaign trail, Mallot says he's not going to quit the race or try to merge tickets. His campaign also questioned the results of Moore's poll, pointing to PPP's numbers in the three-way. It would be a shame if Parnell could sneak through with a weak win in the general election, but unfortunately, that's probably what'll happen regardless of what Mallot or Walker does.

FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist is finally going on the air, and his first spot is pretty good. Keying on Florida's reputation as the Sunshine State, Crist points out that lots of Floridians start their workday before the sun comes up and don't finish until long it sets. He then goes on to tout some of his achievements during his first term as governor (back when he was a Republican), carefully picking out those that play to his reformulated image (cutting property taxes and saving teachers' jobs).

Crist also discusses his priorities if voters send him back to the governor's mansion, and these are unquestionably progressive: raising the minimum wage, ensuring equal pay for women, and restoring school funding. If Crist thinks that this kind of message is a winner in red-tilting Florida (and you know he's poll-tested it to death), then that's a good sign for Democrats elsewhere, too.

House:

IA-03: This would be huge for Democrats if it happened: State Sen. Brad Zaun, who finished first in last month's GOP primary and sounds very bitter about losing the nomination to former congressional aide David Young at a subsequent party convention, says he's thinking about running as an independent this fall. Democrats, who are running former state Sen. Staci Appel, are trying hard to pick up this swingy seat, and if Zaun winds up on the ballot, that job would become much easier.

He wouldn't be a minor irritant, either. Zaun ran for the previous version of this seat once before in 2010, losing 51-46 to then-Rep. Leonard Boswell, so he has some real standing in the district. But really, Iowa Republicans (and Democrats, too, who nearly got tripped up in the 1st District) ought to think about changing this crazy law that requires a convention if no one can clear 35 percent in a primary. At least a proper runoff would be legit. The current system makes no sense.

LA-05: Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican state Sen. Elbert Guillory, who had previously flirted with a Senate earlier this cycle, says he's "90 percent committed to run" against GOP Rep. Vance McAllister. Guillory promised a decision by Sunday night, but if he's said anything further, we haven't seen it yet. Guillory is 70 years old and quite a character; least year, he earned some notoriety when he defended Louisiana's law allowing creationism to be taught in schools by citing a visit he once paid to a witch doctor. (It's even worse than it sounds.)

Meanwhile, Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo, a Democrat who also ran in the special election won by McAllister last year, says he'll try again. Mayo finished third (and thus out of the runoff) thanks to a split in the Democratic field in the special. This time, he's the only Democrat to announce (so far), but Louisiana's last-in-the-nation filing deadline isn't until Aug. 22. However, even if Mayo doesn't face any intra-party competition, he'd have a very difficult time prevailing in a runoff, given that this district went 61-38 for Mitt Romney.

Other Races:

CA Controller: Former Assembly Speaker John Perez has requested a partial recount in California's incredibly close primary for state controller, where just 481 votes—or one hundredth of one percent—separate him from the current second-place finisher, fellow Democrat Betty Yee. Despite the tight results, Perez must pay for the recount himself, which is why he's only seeking a review in 15 counties he won (including Los Angeles), and only in certain precincts where he did well.

Yee is grumbling about Perez "cherry picking" his best turf, but a full statewide recount would cost a fortune, and Perez is already seeking the largest recanvass in recent history. Yee can now request a recount of her own to try to keep pace with Perez in case he makes any gains; if she does, she'll probably focus on her base of northern California. Things could get very crazy before it's all over.

Grab Bag:

Ads:

AR-Sen: On behalf of the NEA, a retired teacher frames a spot criticizing GOP Rep. Tom Cotton for relying on student loans to attend Harvard but still wanting to end low-interest loan programs. Size of the buy: $490,000.

GA-Sen: Rep. Jack Kingston hits David Perdue for mismanaging the companies he ran (causing layoffs and accepting bailout money) and also accuses him of supporting tax increases.

HI-Sen: Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa offers some vague pronouncements about how we must "never again commit to war without the support of the American people." If this is meant to sound dovish, it's a total failure, since 72 percent of Americans supported the Iraq invasion in 2003.

IA-, NH-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Republican Joni Ernst with clips of her saying she wants to shutter the Department of Education and the EPA. The LCV is also reportedly gearing up for a $369,000 campaign against Scott Brown starting this week, but that ad is not available yet.

MN-Sen: Republican Mike McFadden, who bragged in another ad about how he refused to pay for his son's stitches to get removed properly after a hockey injury, now coaches pee wee football and gets socked in the breadbasket by one of his players.

AZ-Gov: The Koch-backed 60 Plus Association attacks Republican Scott Smith for supporting the greenhouse gas-reducing Kyoto accords, "like Al Gore." Have we seen the Kochs playing in any other gubernatorial primaries this cycle?

CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley is praised by an utterly unbiased source: his wife.

OH-Gov: Another positive spot from GOP Gov. John Kasich, about how he's helped fix the state budget and add jobs.

RI-Gov: A victim of domestic violence thanks Democrat Gina Raimondo for saving her life by supporting a women's shelter and a crime victims' fund. Meanwhile, a fellow Coast Guard veteran who served with Democrat Clay Pell praises his courage.

GA-01: The Club for Growth attacks GOP state Sen. Buddy Carter as (what else?) a liberal who likes tax hikes and pork barrel spending.

Deaths: Former Illinois Sen. Alan Dixon died on Sunday at the age of 86. Dixon had a long career in office, but he's probably best known to political junkies as the guy who lost the 1992 Democratic primary to Carol Moseley Braun.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jul 08, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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